Challenging Assumptions

Andrew Arnel Cody Jankowski David Lieberman

Left-Handed vs. Right-Handed Pitching

Left-Handed Pitchers

• Southpaws have historically performed slightly better– Easier to pick off base runners standing on first

base– Pitcher is granted more time to hide the ball in his

mitt, obstruct the batter’s vision

Left-Handed People

• Left-handed people are viewed as unique outliers– Majority of modern inventions provide left-handed people with

disadvantages (cars, telephones, scissors, refrigerator doors)

• 15% of the world is left-handed

• Left-handed people are more likely to be geniuses– Left-handed people are better at handling large amounts of stimuli– More left-handed people with IQs above 140 than right-handed

people• This could explain why there are more left-handed people in creative

professions such as music, art, politics and writing

Left-Handed People

• Left half of the brain: associated with logic and reason

• Right half of the brain: associated with art and inventiveness– Each of the brain’s hemispheres control the opposite

side of the body– Some of world’s greatest prodigies were lefties

• Leonardo da Vinci• Benjamin Franklin• Jimi Hendrix• Barack Obama

Left-Handed Phenomenon

• “out in left field”• “do it the right way”• “a left-handed compliment”

Could it be that right-handed people have a skewed perspective on left-handed people due to the negative connotation associated with the left side?

Could it be that subconscious prejudice against lefties still exists due to the historical intolerance built up against left handed people?

Top 12 MLB PitchersAMERICAN LEAGUE NATIONAL LEAGUE

Name Throws Team Div. Contract Name Throws Team Div. Contract

CC Sabathia

Left New YorkYankees

East 8 yrs$182M

Cliff Lee

Left PhiladelphiaPhillies

East 5 yrs$120M

Jon Lester

Left BostonRed Sox

East 5 yrs$30M

Cole Hamels

Left PhiladelphiaPhillies

East 1 yr$15M

C.J. Wilson

Left TexasRangers*

West 5 yrs$77.5M

Clayton Kershaw

Left Los AngelesDodgers

West 2 yrs$19M

Josh Beckett

Right BostonRed Sox

East 4 yrs$68M

Roy Halladay

Right PhiladelphiaPhillies

East 3 yrs$60M

Justin Verlander

Right DetroitTigers

Cent. 5 yrs$79.5M

Zack Greinke

Right MilwaukeeBrewers

Cent. 4 yrs$38M

Felix Hernandez

Right SeattleMariners

West 5 yrs$78M

Tim Lincecum

Right San FranciscoGiants

West 2 yrs$40.5M

Top 6 AL PitchersAMERICAN LEAGUE

Name Throws W L ERA G IP H ER BB K WHIP vs. RHB vs. LHB

CC Sabathia

Left 19 8 3.00 33 237.1 230 79 61 230 1.226 0.273 0.207

Jon Lester

Left 15 9 3.47 31 191.2 182 74 75 182 1.257 0.244 0.207

C.J. Wilson

Left 16 7 2.94 34 223.1 191 73 74 206 1.187 0.227 0.251

Josh Beckett

Right 13 7 2.89 30 193.0 146 62 52 175 1.026 0.245 0.186

Justin Verlander

Right 24 5 2.40 34 251.0 174 67 57 250 0.920 0.215 0.174

Felix Hernandez

Right 14 14 3.47 33 233.2 218 90 67 222 1.220 0.243 0.252

Average 17 8 3.03 33 221.4 190 74 64 211 1.139 0.241 0.213

Top 6 NL PitchersNATIONAL LEAGUE

Name Throws W L ERA G IP H ER BB K WHIP vs. RHB vs. LHB

Cliff Lee

Left 17 8 2.40 32 232.2 197 62 42 238 1.027 0.239 0.196

Cole Hamels

Left 14 9 2.79 32 216.0 169 67 44 194 0.986 0.204 0.249

Clayton Kershaw

Left 21 5 2.28 33 233.1 174 59 54 248 0.977 0.213 0.178

Roy Halladay

Right 19 6 2.35 32 233.2 208 61 35 220 1.040 0.206 0.273

Zack Greinke

Right 16 6 3.83 28 171.2 161 73 45 201 1.200 0.245 0.245

Tim Lincecum

Right 13 14 2.74 33 217.0 176 66 86 220 1.207 0.226 0.217

Average 17 8 2.73 32 217.1 181 65 51 220 1.073 0.222 0.226

Left-Handed PitchersLEFT-HANDED PITCHERS

Name Hitters BAA OBP SLG OPS K/BBCC

Sabathiavs. LHB 0.207 0.253 0.301 0.554 8.00 vs. RHB 0.273 0.324 0.384 0.709 2.84 Differential 0.066 0.071 0.083 0.155 5.16

JonLester

vs. LHB 0.207 0.281 0.299 0.580 2.89 vs. RHB 0.244 0.328 0.400 0.728 2.28 Differential 0.037 0.047 0.101 0.148 0.61

C.J.Wilson

vs. LHB 0.251 0.323 0.335 0.658 3.00 vs. RHB 0.227 0.296 0.354 0.650 2.72 Differential (0.024) (0.027) 0.019 (0.008) 0.28

CliffLee

vs. LHB 0.196 0.219 0.299 0.518 12.25 vs. RHB 0.239 0.283 0.351 0.634 4.97 Differential 0.043 0.064 0.052 0.116 7.28

ColeHamels

vs. LHB 0.249 0.286 0.376 0.662 4.30 vs. RHB 0.204 0.251 0.326 0.577 4.44 Differential (0.045) (0.035) (0.050) (0.085) (0.14)

ClaytonKershaw

vs. LHB 0.178 0.245 0.267 0.512 4.42 vs. RHB 0.213 0.259 0.305 0.563 4.64 Differential 0.035 0.014 0.038 0.051 (0.22)

Right-Handed PitchersRIGHT-HANDED PITCHERS

Name Hitters BAA OBP SLG OPS K/BBJosh

Beckettvs. RHB 0.245 0.292 0.379 0.671 4.87 vs. LHB 0.186 0.260 0.303 0.562 2.76 Differential (0.059) (0.032) (0.076) (0.109) 2.11

JustinVerlander

vs. RHB 0.215 0.253 0.364 0.617 5.53 vs. LHB 0.174 0.233 0.271 0.504 3.82 Differential (0.041) (0.020) (0.093) (0.113) 1.71

FelixHernandez

vs. RHB 0.243 0.292 0.364 0.656 4.76 vs. LHB 0.252 0.314 0.349 0.662 2.45 Differential 0.009 0.022 (0.015) 0.006 2.31

RoyHalladay

vs. RHB 0.206 0.236 0.275 0.511 8.00 vs. LHB 0.273 0.305 0.354 0.659 4.47 Differential 0.067 0.069 0.079 0.148 3.53

ZackGreinke

vs. RHB 0.245 0.305 0.375 0.679 4.07 vs. LHB 0.245 0.288 0.450 0.738 5.06 Differential 0.000 (0.017) 0.075 0.059 (0.99)

TimLincecum

vs. RHB 0.226 0.302 0.362 0.663 3.16 vs. LHB 0.217 0.303 0.326 0.628 2.10 Differential (0.009) 0.001 (0.036) (0.035) 1.06

Are Statistics Enough?

The reason why left-handed pitchers command more interest, money and investment in comparison to right-handed pitchers has a lot to do with scarcity and the human behavior that reacts to this economic force.

Scarcity

“Left-handers are a limited commodity in baseball’s player market, and teams devote great amounts of time, energy and stress into making sure they don’t miss their share of them.” –Mel Antonen, USA Today

“That means a player whose normal ability warrants a second-round pick might go in the first round because a team is so desperate. –Allan Simpson, Baseball America

Source Monitoring

There are less lefty pitchers than righties, causing managers to overvalue and overpay for lefties – because they are more exclusive, and not because they are more successful.

Source monitoring – the idea that humans when told enough times that something is truth, will eventually believe it in spite of its validity

Auction Markets

Sequential ordering – people are heavily influenced by the decisions that are made before them, like in an auction market. Public decision-making encourages conformity.

Managerial activity and team decision-making in baseball is very much predicated on the history of what has happened in and around the league.

Marketability Value

• Part of what you pay in a contract is an entertainment value– Philosophy relies on the excitement a ball club generates

from its “ace”

• Last four MLB offseasons dominated by a single contract, the top FA pitcher.– 2009: CC Sabathia – 7 years, $161 M (now 8/182)– 2010: John Lackey – 5 years, $82.5M– 2011: Cliff Lee – 5 years, $120M– 2012: C.J. Wilson – 5 years, $77.5M

Overcompensating

Sequential ordering – baseball teams strive for more variety when it comes to building a pitching staff, giving up too much money and attention for left-handed pitching.

The same irrational behaviors are systematic and predictable.

Conclusion

In the end, we believe irrationality even has its place in the business that is baseball.

Unless business makers and managers in the MLB could revise their thinking, teams will continue to overpay and over-invest in “the lefty” over “the righty” without any rationality.