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Chapter 7

• A Changing World

• Impact on Biosphere

• USA and Europe

• Freshwater Resources

• The Amazon

• Great Barrier Reef

• Ocean Acidification

• The Himalayas

• Sea Level

• Small Pacific Islands

• Sickness and Diseases

• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions

The Impact of Climate Change

“Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st

century” – Health experts writing in The Lancet (2009)

“Climate-induced crises could topple governments, feed terrorist movements or destabilize entire regions” – Military and intelligence officials as reported in NY Times (2009)

“Several leading studies indicate that the systemic shocks to regional and global economies from climate change will be substantial and will worsen the longer world governments wait to take sufficient policy action.” – 2010 statement from 268 investors representing assets of more than US$15 trillion

Please visit my Impacts Web page

IPCC (2007)

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http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/global_warming/impact_climate_change.html

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A Changing World

• IPCC estimates for rise in T by end of century varies from 1.8C for low emission scenario (B1) to 3.2C for high emission scenario (A2)

• We are currently tracking along A2

IPCC (2007)

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• IPCC (2013) now uses Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) instead of previous A & B carbon emission scenarios. There are four pathways: RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 - the last is also referred to as RCP3-PD.

• We are currently tracking along RCP8.5

IPCC (2013)

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A Changing World

• A rise of 2C is considered the highest “safe” level.

• According to Synthesis Report from the Climate Change Congress - University of Copenhagen (Richardson et al., 2009):

"Recent observations show that societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities, ecosystem services and biodiversity particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2oC will be difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond."

Kitchen (2013)

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WMO (2013)5

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Impact on Biosphere

• Biome: a large area of the world where similar living things have adapted to regional and other physical conditions

• Biomes contain distinct ecosystems that are perfectly adapted to their environment and compete for resources

• Keystone species are those that keep the ecosystem intact (polar bears, elephants, bees, ants, etc.)

Kitchen (2013)

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Impact on Biosphere

• Ecosystems have adapted in the past to gradual changes with smaller extinctions

• Sudden changes have caused larger extinctions because ecosystems were unable to adapt quickly enough

• When change is slow, less-adapted species move to more suitable locations and more tolerant species move in

• Species in the Amazon River basin and Great Barrier Reef are highly specialized and not very tolerant of change

• The Amazonian tree frog (pictured above) cannot cope with even small changes

• Global warming is occurring very rapidly and when combined with roads, cities, farms, coastal development, pollution and other factors, ecosystems are being stressed worldwide

Areas of impact shown on next slide…

Wayfaring.info (2010)

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Impact on Biosphere

Projected significant (>20%) change in terrestrial ecosystems under the A2 emission scenario

Kitchen (2013)

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USA and Europe

• American Northwest could lose up to 38% of their salmon and trout species by 2100 due to warmer waters

• Losses of western trout populations may exceed 60 percent in certain regions

• Over half of the wild trout populations are likely to disappear from the southern Appalachian Mountains

• About 90% of bull trout are projected to be lost • Pennsylvania is predicted to lose 50% of its trout habitat in

the coming decades• Projected losses of trout habitat for some warmer states,

such as North Carolina and Virginia, are up to 90%

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USA and Europe

• Warmer winters are allowing pine beetles to survive at greater numbers.

• Next three to five years virtually all of Colorado’s lodgepole pine trees over five inches in diameter will be lost, about five million acres.

• Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta, the problem is most severe. It is the largest known insect infestation in the history of North America. British Columbia has lost 33 million acres of lodgepole pine forest.

New York Times (2008)

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USA and Europe

• Trees are shifting northward and higher in elevation

• Estimates for migration rates of tree species from historical records average 200-300 m/yr, which is a rate significantly below that required in response to anticipated future climate change.

• By 2100 only 18% to 45% of the plants and animals making up ecosystems in global, humid tropical forests may remain as we know them today

United States Global Research Program (2009)

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USA and Europe

• Earlier springs upsets the balance between food supply and nesting times

• Caterpillars in The Netherlands are hatching earlier and Pied Flycatchers flying in from West Africa are arriving too late to feed their young on caterpillars

• The flycatcher has declined by 10%

Pied Flycatcher

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USA and Europe

According to the IPCC (2007) Mediterranean ecosystems have the following vulnerabilities to climate change:• Warmer and drier conditions will force species to shift• These shifts imply a need for migration rates that will

exceed the ability of many of these species• Land use, habitat fragmentation and intense human

pressures will further limit natural adaptation responses• Fires may threaten specific species and plant functional

types (see above image)• Vegetation structural change driven by dominant, common

or invasive species may also threaten rare species• Overall, a loss of biodiversity and carbon sequestration

services may result in many of these regions

Pied Flycatcher

Giannakopoulos, et al. (2009)

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USA and Europe

• Coastal ecosystems including delta plains, wetlands, tidal flats, dune systems, barrier islands, and lagoons are under threat from a changing climate and increased sea levels

Pied Flycatcher

• Due to massive coastal building, many species have nowhere to relocate

• Warmer waters reduce oxygen content and encourage the growth of toxic algae that kill fish and create dead zones

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USA and Europe

• Warmer water is less dense than cooler water

• Warmer climate will limit “lake turnover” thus depriving the lake of oxygen

• Result: Fish and other species decline and algae blooms increase

Munson and Axler (2009)

Neppel (2005)

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USA and Europe

• Lobster populations across all of southern New England, from the elbow of Cape Cod to the Sound, have sunk to what fisheries biologists consider dangerously low levels. Meanwhile, lobsters in northern, colder waters are fine

• Since a major die-off in the Sound in the late 1990s, researchers have been studying possible causes and water temperature -seems to be emerging as the chief perpetrator, the one that opens the door to the cascade of shell disease, pesticide sensitivity and increased vulnerability to predators attacking a weakened species

• When the waters of the Sound and elsewhere in southern New England warm to 68F, and stay there for two months or more - a condition occurring more frequently with climate change -lobsters, it seem, become chronically distressed. The gills on their undersides flutter rapidly, they don't draw in the oxygen they need from the water and their off-kilter respiration leaves their blood saturated with carbon dioxide.

• Adding to that, warm water holds less oxygen than colder water, so the lobsters are working harder for less.

Boatinglocal.com (2011)

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USA and Europe

• North Sea cod (fish and chips) are stressed by overfishing and climate change

• May seek new breeding grounds in cooler water farther north

• May be gone in North Sea region by 2100

BBC (2006)

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Freshwater Resources

• Freshwater availability is vital to civilization because it provides drinking water and water for irrigation to feed society

• "Observational records and climate projections provide abundant evidence that freshwater resources are vulnerable and have the potential to be strongly impacted by climate change, with wide-ranging consequences for human societies and ecosystems" is the conclusion of Bates, et al. (2008) in Climate Change and Water, a Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WG II (2007).

Oram (2010)

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Freshwater ResourcesBates et al. find: • Observed warming over several decades has been linked to changes in the

large-scale hydrological cycle.• Climate model simulations for the 21st century are consistent in projecting

precipitation increases in high latitudes (very likely) and parts of the tropics, and decreases in some subtropical and lower mid-latitude regions (likely).

• By the middle of the 21st century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase as a result of climate change at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics.

• Increased precipitation intensity and variability are projected to increase the risks of flooding and drought in many areas.

• Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline in the course of the century.

• Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes, including floods and droughts, are projected to affect water quality and exacerbate many forms of water pollution.

• Globally, the negative impacts of future climate change on freshwater systems are expected to outweigh the benefits (high confidence).

• Changes in water quantity and quality due to climate change are expected to affect food availability, stability, access and utilization.


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Areas of the world with serious water threats

IPCC (2007)

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Projected changes in US water cycleUnited States Global Research Program (2009)

Kitchen (2013)

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Projected changes in global runoff by 2099 22

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• One-sixth of the Earth’s population rely on melt water from glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply.

• Glaciers are the source for many rivers, particularly in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya and the South-American Andes. Higher temperatures generate increased glacier melt and as these glaciers retreat due to global warming, river flows are increased in the short term, but the contribution of glacier melt will gradually decrease over the next few decades.

• In the Andes, glacial melt water supports tens of millions of people during the long dry season. Many small glaciers, e.g., in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru, will disappear within the next few decades, adversely affecting people and ecosystems.

• The entire Hindu Kush-Himalaya ice mass has decreased in the last two decades. Hence, water supply in areas fed by glacial melt water from the Hindu Kush and Himalayas, on which hundreds of millions of people in China and India depend, will be negatively affected

Wallace (2011)

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• Climate change-linked sea level rise leads to intrusion of salt water into the fresh groundwater in coastal aquifers which adversely affects groundwater resources.

Areas along the Atlantic coast where saltwater has intruded freshwater aquifers

USGS (2010)

USGS (2010)

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• Climate change-linked sea level rise leads to intrusion of salt water into the fresh groundwater in coastal aquifers which adversely affects groundwater resources.

Saltwater intrusion front between 2006 and 2106 in Monterey County, CA

Loáiciga & Pingel (2008)

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• Israel is wealthy and can tap deep aquifers for water but Jordanians and Palestinians are not so fortunate

• Dead Sea water is falling due to river diversion and extraction of groundwater

• Sea of Galilee is also rapidly falling and is 5 m below “safe” level• Both are essential for agriculture and drinking water• Access to water sources in West Bank is tightly controlled by

Israel• In Gaza overtapping of aquifer and rising sea levels may

permanently damage that aquifer

Palestinian Academic Society for the study of International Affairs (2002)

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• Increased drought in parts of Africa might destroy agriculture and force massive migrations

• These migrations will be politically destabilizing

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• People living in snowmelt-fed basins experiencing decreasing snow storage in winter may be negatively affected by decreased river flows in the summer and autumn

• The Rhine, for example, might suffer from a reduction of summer low flows of 5–12% by the 2050s, which will negatively affect water supply, particularly for thermal power plants

• The Rio Santo in Peru depends almost entirely for its dry-season runoff on glacial melt. This river supports 5% of Peru's electricity and much of its agriculture. More than a million people in the coastal cities of Chimbote and Trujillo depend on this river for their drinking water. By 2050 the glaciers that feed the Rio Santo will have shrunk by 40% to 60%

• Lima, home to more than eight million people, will also experience drastic water shortages as the climate warms and glaciers retreat to higher and higher elevations

• In western China, earlier spring snowmelt and declining glaciers are likely to reduce water availability for irrigated agriculture

• According to the Water Security Risk Index, released by Maplecroft (2010), a firm specializing in corporate risk intelligence, Somalia (1), Mauritania (2), Sudan (3), Niger (4), Iraq (5), Uzbekistan (6), Pakistan (7), Egypt (8), Turkmenistan (9) and Syria (10) are the countries with the least secure supplies of water

Maplecroft (2010)

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• For an aquifer in Texas, the net income of farmers is projected to decrease by 16–30% by the 2030s and by 30–45% by the 2090s due to decreased irrigation water supply and increased irrigation water demand

• If freshwater supply has to be replaced by desalinated water due to climate change, then the cost of climate change includes the average cost of desalination, which is currently around US$1.00/m3 for seawater and US$0.60/m3 for brackish water. The cost for freshwater chlorination is approximately US$0.02/m3.

• In densely populated coastal areas of Egypt, China, Bangladesh, India and south-east Asia, desalination costs may be prohibitive.


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The Amazon

• Amazon is over 55 million years old and is the most biodiverse location on Earth

• Ecosystem has remained mostly unchanged in the previous 1-2 million years

• Drought might collapse this ecosystem by 2100• 20% will be lost if global T increases by 2C and 75%-85% could

be lost with warmer temperatures• Amazon absorbs 1.8 billion tons of CO2 per year• Release of this stored carbon would be a positive feedback to

global warming• When trees are lost, soil is eroded which leaves unproductive

scrublands behind• In 2005 massive drought caused fires that released 5 billion

tons of CO2• Amazon is home to 30 million people, 350 indigenous

communities, 20% of all known birds, 130,000 invertebrates, over 150,000 higher plants, millions of insects.

Kitchen (2013)

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Great Barrier Reef

• Great Barrier Reef (GBR) off the northeast coast of Australia is over 2300 Km long and is the only living structure that can be seen from space

• Composed of over 3000 reefs and 94 islands• Offers protection for the coastline• May be as old as 18-20 million years• 400 species of coral, 500 marine algae, 1500 fish, over 5000

mollusk, and more than 40 species of whales, dolphins, porpoises, turtles, and rare dugongs

• These species are very connected and any disruption in one can have a cascade effect on others

• Coral has a symbiotic relationship with an algae that is not very tolerant of increased water T.

• When these algae are expelled at higher T, “bleaching” results (algae give corals their colors)

• Major global bleaching events 1983, 1988, 1995, 2005, 2006, 2010

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Ehponline.org (2008)

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Global bleaching event in 2010 34

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Ocean Acidification

• Colder, saltier water absorbs more CO2 while warmer, less salty water absorbs less CO2

• Careful measurements show that the bulk of the CO2 being absorbed by the oceans resides in the shallowest layers

Ruddiman (2008)

Doney (2006)

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http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/global_warming/impact_ocean_acidification.html

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Ocean Acidification

Ruddiman (2008)

Kitchen (2013)36


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Ocean Acidification

Ruddiman (2008)

IPCC (2013)

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Ocean Acidification

• When carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans, it forms carbonic acid (H2CO3), the same weak acid found in carbonated beverages

• Carbonic acid then releases hydrogen ions (H+) into solution which lowers the pH of the water. The full chemical reaction ends up leaving both bicarbonate ions (HCO3

–1) and, to a lesser extent, carbonate ions (CO3

–2)

• The normal pH of sea water in perfect conditions ranges between 8.0 and 8.3 (slightly alkaline)

• The pH of the oceans has already decreased 0.1 from pre-Industrial values due to the absorption of human CO2 and the projections are for the pH to lower an additional 0.3 by 2100 if emissions go unabated

• Although these changes appear to be small, these small pH changes may cause devastating effects on sea creatures that need carbonate ions to build their calcium carbonate shells.

• The excess H+ ions combine with carbonate ions to make bicarbonate. The result is less and less carbonate for shelled sea creatures

Amphipod, a type of plankton. The photo was taken using magnification so users can see the amphipod in detail. In reality, most amphipods are only 1 mm to 140 mm in length. (nano-reef.com, 2003)

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Ocean Acidification

• Plankton is the base of the marine food chain. Coccolithophorids, which are covered with small plates of calcium carbonate and are commonly found floating near the surface of the ocean (where they use the abundant sunlight for photosynthesis) are in danger with slightly lower pH values.

• Other potentially endangered planktonic organisms are foraminifera and pteropods. These life forms constitute a major food source for fish and marine mammals, including some species of whales.

• And, of course, humans and other animals rely on a robust marine food chain

• The abundance of commercially important shellfish species (i.e., clams, oysters, sea urchins) could also decline, which could have serious consequences for marine food resources

Amphipod, a type of plankton. The photo was taken using magnification so users can see the amphipod in detail. In reality, most amphipods are only 1 mm to 140 mm in length.

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Ocean Acidification

Pteropod

Cosmos (2008)

(Cooley & Doney, 2009)40


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Ocean Acidification• The calcium carbonate in corals or in the shells of other marine creatures

comes in two distinct mineral forms: calcite and aragonite• Aragonite and magnesium calcite are more soluble than normal calcite.

Thus, corals and pteropods, which both produce aragonitic shells, and coralline algae, which manufacture magnesium calcite, may be especially susceptible to harm from ocean acidification

• The saturation horizon is the level below which aragonite and calcite begin to dissolve.

• The influx of CO2 from the atmosphere has caused the saturation horizons for aragonite and calcite to shift closer to the surface by 50 to 200 meters compared with where they were positioned in the 1800s.

• As the ocean becomes more and more acidic less and less of the sea will remain hospitable for calcifying organisms

• The outlook for coral reefs is bleak. For those precious ecosystems, ocean acidification is but one of many environmental stresses, an onslaught that includes greenhouse warming, local pollution, over-fishing and habitat destruction. Many coral reefs are already in decline, and ocean acidification may push some over the edge into nonexistence

Foraminifera

Anderson (2011)

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Ocean Acidification

Representative examples of impacts of ocean acidification on major groups of marine biota derived from experimental manipulation studies. The response curves on the right indicate four cases: (a) linear negative, (b) linear positive, (c) level, and (d) nonlinear parabolic responses to increasing levels of seawater CO2 for each of the groups

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo-bHt1bOsw

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Ocean Acidification

• By 2050 when CO2 levels reach 560 ppm, EVERY tropical coral reef is expected to stop growing and begin dissolving

• Fisheries on GBR are worth $360 million per year and employ more than 2000 people

• GBR attracts 1.6 million tourists per year• Many indigenous tribes rely on the GBR• The US spends more than $30 billion on coastal fisheries that

depend on the health of reefs worldwide• More than 665 million people (10% of the world) rely on reefs• IPCC 5th Assessment will include ocean acidification as a major

part of their study

Silverman, et al. (2009)

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The Himalayas

• Ice fields, glaciers, and lakes hold freshwater in quantity 2nd only to the polar ice sheets

• Major rivers that rely on this water include Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtse, and Huang He (Yellow)

• Region supports 1.3 billion in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Butan, and China

Howstuffworks.com

Soltan (2008)

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The Himalayas

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (2010)46

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The Himalayas

• The Himalayas are warming at .09C per year and faster rates above 4000m

• T is expected to rise in Nepal a further 1.2C by 2025 and as much as 3C by 2100

• As reflective snow melts, the darker ground underneath provides a positive feedback to warming

• Glaciers are retreating at rates up to 68m per year• Nepal has lost 6% of its glaciated area between 1970 and 2000

and NW China may lose as much as 25% by 2050• Villages in the mountains are suffering from landslides and

floods• Natural dams form when glaciers melt and occasionally result in

glacial outburst floods (GLOF)

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The Himalayas

October 7, 1994, a partial collapse of a moraine along the edge of the Luggye Lake released a glacial outburst flood that killed 21 people and swept away livestock, crops, and homes.

NASA/ISS (2008)

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The Himalayas

• In 1985, the Dig Tsho GLOF washed away 12 bridges and a hydroelectric plant along with homes and farms

• It is estimated there are 15,000 glaciers with 9,000 lakes in this region

• 20 glacial lakes are considered imminent for GLOF for Nepal alone

• Costly efforts are underway to drain these lakes at a safe rate but getting equipment there is a Herculean task

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The Himalayas

• High population density is supported by simple farming techniques including terracing that traps water and prevents erosion

• In Nepal, 80% depend on wood from forests and on the 6,000+ rivers that support irrigation and drinking water

• Global warming has increased flooding and drought which has eroded the soil and damaged the terracing

• Warmer T has also increased the incidence of forest fires• Brown locust outbreaks, are believed to be associated with climate

variability. Historical plagues of the high-elevation Tibetan migratory locust are closely related to droughts.

• Spiders also play important roles in limiting locust populations. Rising temperatures significantly decrease the effect of spider predation.

• At the same time rising temperatures increases the number of grasshopper adults by lengthening the period of reproduction of mature adults in late summer. This can lead to increases in grasshopper populations the following year if winter conditions are ideal for egg survival

Population density (people per km2) by country, 2006

Contreras (2007)

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The Himalayas

• In the Tibetan Plateau, tree lines are expected to shift upward and northward

• In northwest Yunnan a comparison of repeat photographs taken in 1923 and 2003 indicate tree lines rose by 67 m and tree limits rose by 45 m

• In the eastern Himalayas researchers estimate tree-line movement was 110 m over the past century and predict that by 2100 the elevational range of Abies georgei forest will decrease between 4.6 and 25.9% and forest size will decrease between 5% and 38.6% under different emission scenarios

• Studies in the western Himalayas have recorded an upward shift of tree line species of 19 and 14 m over 10 years on south and north slopes, respectively

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The Himalayas

• Over the next 50 years, the IPCC predicts an increase in spring flow due to increased ice melt

• After 2050 the summer flows could decrease by as much as 90% due to loss of glacial ice

• Ice has stored PCBs and DDT which will be released when ice melts

• This region produces 25% of the world’s cereal crop and as much as 56% of Asia’s production

• It is expected that up to 5% of the world cereal crop would be gone

• Less water will be occurring at a time of rapid population growth and rapidly increasing water needs

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The Himalayas

• This will lead to food shortages and cross-border conflicts between NUCLEAR nations such as China, India, and Pakistan.

• Will India redirect water away from Pakistan to feed its own people? Will Pakistan use nukes to wrest this resource back?

• When China faces massive food shortages, will China move on a Siberia made agriculturally more productive from global warming? China needs to feed its billions and Russia must defend its borders. Tensions will be high between these two nuclear superpowers.

• Also, China along with a number of other countries is buying/leasing land and other resources around the world. Not just to meet its needs now but as a safeguard for the future. What happens in the future when they start to use this to supply their own country with resources from these holdings in preference to the host country. What sort of political, military and civil disorder issues arise then?

Scrape TV (2010)

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Video: Drought, Water, War, and Climate Change

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbkNcvGHZwc



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• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions

Sea Level

• Rising sea level is a truly global impact• Sea levels have been fairly stable in the past 8000 years but are

now increasing• Sea level increases by thermal expansion (warmer water takes up

more space) and ice melt from land-based ice (Antarctica, Greenland, glaciers)

• Greenland holds enough water to raise sea level by 7m and the WAIS holds about 6m of potential rise

• The last time global T was this high was 125,000 years ago and seas were 4m higher than today

• Based on a number of studies since the IPCC 2007 reports, the synthesis document of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Congress concluded that “updated estimates of the future global mean sea level rise are about double the IPCC projections from 2007.”

• Sea level will continue to rise for many centuries after global temperature is stabilized, since it takes that much time for the oceans and ice sheets to fully respond to a warmer climate.

IPCC (2013)

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http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/global_warming/impact_sea_level_rise.html

Chapter 7



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• Arctic Changes

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Sea Level

• Some recent estimates of future rise are shown above (Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009).

• A business as usual approach to emissions results in global warming that is likely to raise sea level by several meters in coming centuries, leading to the loss of many major coastal cities and entire island nations.

• UN estimates that coastal communities could exceed 5.2 billion by 2080

• Increased storms, flooding will increase cholera, typhoid, and dysentery when sewage overflows water supply

• Saltwater intrusion into aquifers increases thus reducing freshwater source

• Tourism and coastal agriculture suffer• Millions of refugees will be on the move exacerbating political

tensions

Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009)

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Sea Level


Kitchen (2013)

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Chapter 7



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• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions Sea Level

• Deltas are highly sensitive to sea-level rise • Rates of relative sea-level rise can greatly exceed the global due to

subsidence (sinking of the land) caused by human activities • Examples include the Chao Phraya delta, Mississippi River delta, and the

Changjiang River delta. Sea-level rise increases the potential for flooding, especially for the most populated cities on these deltas - Bangkok, New Orleans and Shanghai

• Image above shows the relative vulnerability of coastal deltas as shown by the population potentially displaced by current sea-level trends in the year 2050. (Note that sea level trends are actually greater than projected by the IPCC so this figure is too conservative in its timing. Much of the impact will likely occur well before 2050.)

• It is estimated that nearly 300 million people inhabit a sample of 40 deltas globally, including all the large megadeltas. Average population density is 500 people/km2 with the largest population in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, and the highest density in the Nile delta.

• More than 1 million people will be directly affected by 2050 in three megadeltas: the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, the Mekong delta in Vietnam and the Nile delta in Egypt. More than 50,000 people are likely to be directly impacted in each of a further 9 deltas, and more than 5,000 in each of a further 12 deltas.

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Chapter 7



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Sea Level

• For the Nile, a 1 m sea level rise will displace 6 million and cause a loss of 15% of agricultural land

• In Bangladesh, that sea level rise will displace 13 million people and over 16% of their national rice crop

• Delta regions are some of the most fertile land on the planet• Loss of these regions can cause the starvation of millions who

depend on the cereals and rice produced there


Kitchen (2013)

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• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions

Sea Level

• Bangladesh has one of the highest flood plain-bound populations in the world

• Over 150 million live in areas with over 1,000 people per Km2

• Flood plain is highly fertile but poor people there are not able to adapt to rising seas quickly

• More than 70% of the land area is less than 1m above sea level• In 1998, flooding made 30 million homeless with over 1000

deaths• 20% of the rice crop destroyed• Global warming also increases cyclone intensity• In 2007 Cyclone Sidr killed more than 3400 and made 3.2 million

homeless• In 1970 500,000 lost and in 1991 200,000 more lost

Kitchen (2013)

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Sea Level

• May 2008 Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar and killed 146,000 fisherman and farmers

• Military junta refused outside help which exacerbated the already bad situation

Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar, 2008Smallcheese.net (2008)

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• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions

Small Pacific Islands

• Small islands are at the mercy of sea level rise

• When storm wash salt water onto land it destroys crops for years

• Saltwater intrusion decreasing freshwater

• Tourism main source of revenue depends on pristine beaches and fresh water

• Young people are leaving islands in droves – brain drain that exacerbates recovery attempts

Tuvalu, PacificNational Geographic

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• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions

Sickness and Diseases

• As global T rises, the range of mosquitoes increases• Each year 300-500 million people are infected with malaria with

1.5 million deaths, mostly children in Africa and Asia

Lokum (2010)

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• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions


Summers in NY could be like summers in S. Carolina

Union of Concerned Scientists (2010)

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• Conclusions


Extreme heat in major NY cities expected

• Increased heat stroke• Increased heart attacks• Increased asthma and other respiratory illnesses

Union of Concerned Scientists (2010)

Healthtipspedia.com(2010)

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• Conclusions


Major increases in pollen are expected with higher CO2 and warmer temps

Warmer winters, hotter and drier summers punctuated by flooding rains increases West Nile Virus and Lyme Disease

NABC (2011) Ihavenet.com (2010)

66

Brown Recluse Spider (violin shape on thorax) and bite

Vetter (2011) brown-recluse-spiders.net (2010)

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• By 2080, perhaps only 5% of the spider's current range — which extends from Kansas across to Kentucky and from Texas across to Georgia —would remain suitable for the Brown Recluse spider

• Climate change could make portions of Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Nebraska and South Dakota habitable to the spiders

Livescience.com (2011)

Livescience.com (2011)

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Arctic Changes

• Arctic is warming faster than any other region of the world• More than 4 million people live in the Arctic (Canada, Finland,

Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, and the US)• Roads and buildings are built on frozen permafrost which is

now melting faster and staying melted longer• Arctic ecosystem features low shrubs, mosses, and grasses

with caribou, musk ox, rabbits, fox, owl, lemmings, and polar bears

• Methane hydrates store trillions of tons of methane in deep ocean and in permafrost

• Current level is 1.8 ppm which is 1.5 times that of pre-IR• After a decade of stability methane is on the rise again in the

past few years see: NOAA Methane Levels• Since 1900 the extent of permafrost has decreased by 15%

during the warm season• Decreased snow cover has exposed more permafrost to

warmer temperatures

UNEP/GRID (2007)

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http://climateprogress.org/2009/04/25/noaa-methane-levels-2008/

Chapter 7



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• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions

Arctic Changes

• As more Arctic ice melts, new passages open up for potential trade routes (see above)

• Resources under the ice can be tapped but may lead to international conflict

• US Navy plans to have another fleet just to monitor this area in the future

Ruddiman (2008)

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• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions

Arctic Changes

• Several countries with territories bordering the Arctic -including Russia, the US, Canada and Denmark - have launched competing claims to the region.

• The competition has intensified as melting polar ice caps have opened up the possibility of new shipping routes in the region.

• Current laws grant countries an economic zone of 200 nautical miles beyond their land borders.

• This zone can be extended where a country can prove that the structure of the continental shelf is similar to the geological structure within its territory.

• The North Pole is not currently regarded as part of any single country's territory and is therefore administered by the International Seabed Authority.

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Conclusions

72

Chapter 7



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• The Himalayas

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• Arctic Changes

• Conclusions

Conclusions

• Over the past 50 years climate has warmed about 0.8C• Mounting evidence demonstrates that the impact of this

warming is broadening and deepening• Climate change is pressuring land-based and marine

ecosystems globally• The Amazon and Great Barrier Reefs are particularly

vulnerable• Climate change is a growing threat to political and economic

stability especially with the negative impact on freshwater resources

• If nations are fighting it becomes increasingly difficult to get international agreement to solve the crisis

• Climate change increases risks to health, security, and economic stability worldwide and will continue to increase these risks as long as the US fails to lead regarding solutions 73

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