chartering: ΘΕΩΡΙΑŸι απόφοιτοί μας... · capesize $ pmt cargo ports 11th oct...
TRANSCRIPT
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CHARTERING: CHARTERING: ΘΕΩΡΙΑΘΕΩΡΙΑ
ΚΑΙΚΑΙ
ΠΡΑΞΗΠΡΑΞΗVOLATILITY OF THE MARKET IN VOLATILITY OF THE MARKET IN CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXESCAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES
Dimitris
I. Diamantidis
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PRESENTATION 2013
• Part 1 : Basics
• Part 2 : Market report ‐
Volatility ( BCI – BPI )
•• Part 3 : Analysis
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Part 1 : Basics
• P1.1 : FIXTURES• P1.2 : VESSELS ( BULKERS )• P1.3 : CHARTERERS ( CAPES –
Indicatively
)
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P1.1 : FIXTURES
• P 1.1.1 VOYAGE CHARTER• P 1.1.2 TIME CHARTER (TCT – SP – Long Period)
• P 1.1.3 BAREBOAT CHARTER• P 1.1.4 C.O.A.
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P1.2 : VESSELS ( BULKERS )
HANDYSIZE
: 20.000 ‐
39.000 DWTHANDYMAX
: 40.000 ‐
49.000 DWT
SUPRAMAX : 50.000 ‐
59.000 DWT
ULTRAMAX
: 60.000 ‐
64.000 DWTPANAMAX
: 65.000 ‐
79.000 DWT
KAMSARMAX
: 80.000 ‐
89.000 DWTPOST PMX
: 90.000 ‐
99.000 DWT
BABY CAPESIZE
: 100.000 ‐
129.000 DWTCAPESIZE
: 130.000 ‐
189.000 DWT
NEWCASTLEMAX : 189.000 ‐
229.000 DWTVLOC
: 280.000 ‐
310.000 DWT
VALEMAX
: 400.000 DWT < …
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P1.3
CHARTERERS ( CAPES ‐
Ενδεικτικά)
CARGILL, VALE, HANJIN, OLDENDORFF, ESSAR,
WINNING, MOL, COSBULK, RIO TINTO, DAICHI,
POLARIS, CSN, BUNGE, SINOCHART, NS UNITED,
PHAETHON, KOREA LINES, STX, VITOL, MORGAN,
CETRAGPA, TATA, NOBLE , DHL, MOSK, SAMSUN,
SWISSMARINE, SOLEBAY, GPN…
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CAPESIZE
$ PMT
CARGO PORTS 11TH OCT 18TH OCT 2013
165,000t ORE TUB / RTDM 15,65 15.1 9.57
165,000t ORE TUB / EL DEKHEILA 16,3 16 10,05
165,000t ORE TUB / BAOSHAN 26,9 26.65 20.25
165,000t COAL BOLIVAR / RTDM 16,25 15,75 10.35
165,000t ORE DAMPIER / BAO. 11,25 11.15 8.33
165,000t ORE SALDANHA / BAO. 21 19.9 14.93
165,000t ORE DAMPIER / JAPAN 11 10.8 8.11
150,000t COAL HAY PT / RTDM 21,6 21.25 15
150,000t COAL INDONESIA / RTDM 16,7 15.35 9,33
150,000t COAL HAY PT / CHINA 13,8 13.4 9,64
150,000t COAL RBCT / RTDM 13,65 13,15 8,32
150,000t COAL RBCT / ECI 14 13,5 11.86
CAPESIZE SINGLE VOY
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PANAMAX
$ PMT
CARGO PORTS OCT 11 OCT 18 2013
70,000t COAL H . RDS / ARA 15,5 15,75 11.96
70,000t COAL USG / ARA 19,75 20.25 15,88
70,000t COAL BOLIVAR / ARA 18 18,2 14,26
70,000t COAL ROB BANK / NCHINA 19,75 19,75 15,42
70,000t COAL DALRYMP / NCHINA 17,5 17,3 12,88
55,000t COAL ROB BANK / RTDM 21,35 21,35 18,64
70,000t COAL INDO / RTDM 17,25 17,25 14,61
70,000t COAL DALRYMPLE / RTDM 22,2 22,05 18,12
70,000t COAL RBCT / RTDM 13,5 13,65 11,17
70,000t COAL RBCT / WCI 17,5 17 16,24
PMX SINGLE VOY
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CAPESIZE
CARGO PORTS 2011 2012 2013 21 OCT 2013
165,000t ORE TUB / RTDM 10729 ‐764 5251 30341
165,000t ORE TUB / EL DEKHEILA 14728 2792 9236 37853
165,000t ORE TUB / BAOSHAN 27304 18997 21975 40000
165,000t COAL BOLIVAR / RTDM 15803 4780 9493 32000
165,000t ORE DAMPIER / BAO. 14236 6693 11241 26500
165,000t ORE SALDANHA / BAO. 15912 9658 14109 30250
165,000t ORE DAMPIER / JAPAN 15716 7305 13422 30600
150,000t COAL HAY PT / RTDM 208 ‐6660 ‐1937 12600
150,000t COAL INDONESIA / RTDM ‐1630 ‐9664 ‐6354 10500
150,000t COAL HAY PT / CHINA 7419 255 5163 21200
150,000t COAL RBCT / RTDM ‐2615 ‐11227 ‐8579 6000
150,000t COAL RBCT / ECI 19380 10400 13952 20136
16758 7402 12276 31900
CAPESIZE SINGLE VOY AVERAGE EARNING $ PER DAY
AV.EARNINGS
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PANAMAX
AVERAGE EARNING PER DAY
CARGO PORTS 2011 2012 2013 18 Oct 2013
70,000t COAL H . RDS / ARA 12729 5414 6598 115761
70,000t COAL USG / ARA 14301 7023 6440 13784
70,000t COAL BOLIVAR / ARA 12046 4620 6287 14341
70,000t COAL ROB BANK / NCHINA 12034 7441 7932 15495
70,000t COAL DALRYMP / NCHINA 11871 7338 8591 18601
55,000t COAL ROB BANK / RTDM 6028 1089 ‐632 2390
70,000t COAL INDO / RTDM 4268 ‐687 ‐684 3223
70,000t COAL DALRYMPLE / RTDM 4156 ‐252 ‐255 4277
70,000t COAL RBCT / RTDM 1890 ‐2442 ‐2450 1767
70,000t COAL RBCT / WCI 13010 10369 11159 12756
10176 5274 5648 11793
PMX SINGLE VOY
AVERAGE EARNING
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SNP
YEAR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122013
Q1
2013
Q2
Q3 Q4
CAPES 47 64.5 57 150 150 119.4 54 58 39 32.5 27 30.8 36 ?
PMX 28 40 29.5 88 88 63.3 32.2 39 31.3 17 19 21 23 ?
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SNP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 OCT 13
CAPE
PMX
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1 YEAR TC
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3 YEARS TC
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5 YEARS TC
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Market
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Market
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
JAN 11
FEB 11
APR 11
JUN 11
AUG 11
OCT
11
DEC
11
JAN 12
FEB 12
APR 12
JUN 12
AUG 12
OCT
12
DEC
12
JAN 13
FEB 13
APR 13
JUN 13
AUG 13
OCT
13
PMX
PMX
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Market
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
JAN 07
JUN 07
JAN 08
JUN 08
JAN 09
JUN 09
JAN 10
JUN 10
JAN 11
JUN 11
JAN 12
APR
12
AUG 12
NOV 12
JAN 13
APR
13
JUN 13
SEP 13
OCT
13
CAPE
PMX
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MARKET REPORT
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Volatility
PANAMAX
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Volatility
Capesize
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Volatility
Capesize
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Volatility
Panamax
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AnalysisAnalysis
AnalysisAnalysis
Many brokers, chrts and ows are asking Many brokers, chrts and ows are asking ‘’‘’
Will the Will the market go up? Or down ? market go up? Or down ? ‘’‘’
Answer: UP! Answer: UP! ‐‐
50%50%DOWN!DOWN!‐‐
50%50%
World is changing every dayWorld is changing every day……
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Analysis
Earth 1970
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Analysis
Earth 2013
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Analysis
AnalysisAnalysis
Question Question ‘’‘’
What do you suggest me to choose? Pmx What do you suggest me to choose? Pmx or cape ? or cape ? ‘’‘’
Answer: Pls tell me everything about :Answer: Pls tell me everything about :
your characteryour character……
( stable or volatile )( stable or volatile )
your budgetyour budget……
( as capes are not for everybody( as capes are not for everybody……))
your visionyour vision……
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END
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