charting thailand's economy monthly brief november 2015 (thai)

ISSN: 2286-6132

ChartingThailand’sEconomy

MONTHLY

พฤศจิกายน 2558

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DISCLAIMERAll Rights Reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitby any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without tpermission of the publisher, ChartingTHAILAND™.The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannotPlease note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingTHAILANbe based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary souraccuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingTHAILAND™ caliability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently pincorrect.

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Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, November 2015 (Thai)Publication Date: November 3rd, 2015Number of pages: 70

2

tted in any formthe prior

t be guaranteed.ND™ delivers willrces, whosen accept norove to be

ions and

Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015

5Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com

Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysisNote: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate

1.05 –

%

7.2%

6.3%

4.2%

5.0%5.4%

1.7%

-0.7%

7.5%

0.8%

7.3%

2.8%

0.9%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

10

(

)

2003 2014

3.4% 10 2009

2013

2.8%

2014

2014 0.9%

2015

2.8%

6© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

0.9% 1.0%

2.1%

3.0%2.8%

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

Last 5 Quarters

Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

1.06a – 2Q15

%

1.06b –

%

18.7

17.3

8.6

8.6

6.3

5.5

5.5

3.7

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.2

1.3

-0.7

-1.6

-3.9

-6.3

Hotel&Res

Construction

Financial

Transport

Other social

Health&Social

Private HH

Trading

GDP

Utilities

RealEstate

Education

PublicAdmin

Manufacture

Fishing

Mining

Agriculture

GDP

Transport

Hotel&Res

Financial

Trading

Construction

RealEstate

Other social

Utilities

Health&Social

Education

PublicAdmin

Private HH

Fishing

Mining

Manufacture

Agriculture

Stat diff

2 2015

– 2Q15

7

2.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

1.08a – 2Q15

%

1.08b –

%

Note: (*) C = , I = I (capital) = I (inventory) =

G = , X = ( ), M = (

25.1

4.6

2.8

2.5

1.9

1.5

-0.2

-0.3

-4.0

X (services)

G

GDP

I (capital)

I

C

M (services)

M (goods)

X (goods)

GDP

X (services)

Discrpncy

C

G

I (capital)

M (goods)

M (services)

I (Inventory)

X (goods)

– 2Q15

.) 8

2.8

3.3

3.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.1

0.0

-0.2

-2.5


MPI Beyond TrainingBusiness Simulation andExperiential LearningContact Us:Tel: 02 168 7245 7, 098 248 2585www.BeyondTraining.co.thFacebook: MPI Beyond [email protected]

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



1.10 – (2000 = 100)

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

152.1161.1

174.6182.9

170.0

194.2

177.6 181.6 175.7167.7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2

2000 100

10

2009

2011

2013


0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

2014

2015

1.11a –

% , . . 2015

1.11b –

%

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

10.68.3

5.21.9

0.50.40.3

-1.1-1.2-1.7

-3.7-4.6

-5.5-7.3-7.9-8.1-8.4

-10.7-11.7

-18.2-21.4

PetroleumTobaccoVehicles

MachineriesTransport EquipMetal products

PaperPrecision instru

ChemicalFurniture

Rubber&PlasticFood & Bev

MineralTextiles

Wood productsElectrical

Office automateElectronicLeather

Basic MatApparel

TobaccoTransport Equip

MachineriesElectronic

Office automateMetal products

VehiclesFurniture

Precision instruWood products

TextilesLeather

Rubber&PlasticElectricalBasic MatMineral

Food & BevPetroleum

PaperChemicalApparel

. .

. .

–

, . . 2015


15.511.811.5

10.59.99.5

7.46.76.56.2

1.80.8

-1.5-1.6-1.8-1.9-2.3

-3.4-4.7

-6.2-12.8

1.12a –

%

1.12b –

%

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Rubber&PlasticTextiles

Wood productsElectronicElectricalFurniture

Metal productsBasic MatLeather

Office automateFood & Bev

Precision instruMineral

ChemicalTransport Equip

VehiclesPaper

MachineriesPetroleum

ApparelTobacco

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

Normal

Seasonally adjusted

. .

. .

, . . 2015


89%84%

81%80%

76%71%

68%66%66%

60%59%59%

51%50%

47%43%

41%40%39%

30%30%

1.13 –

% ,

Source: The Economist

2

1.2

0.9

0.4

-0.9

-1.2

-3.5

-3.6

-4.8

-5.3

-8.9

Vietnam Oct

India Aug

China Sep

Pakistan Aug

Indonesia Aug

Philippines Aug

Malaysia Aug

South Korea Sep

Australia Q2

Euro Area Aug

US Sep

Japan Sep

Hong Kong Q2

Russia Sep

Thailand Sep

Singapore Sep

Taiwan Sep

Brazil Aug


8.8

6.4

5.7

4.8

4.4

3.7

3.0

2.4

Recommended Video

15

2

http://goo.gl/g1oOka

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



. .

1.14a – (2010 = 100)

Source: Bank of Thailand

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

1.1

%

Non re

Se

Non du

Composite

Semi du

Du80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0


2014

2015

5

( Nielsen’s

FMCG

)

(

)

(

)

(

)

(

)

2010

. .

4b –

, . . 2015


13.4

4.8

2.2

0.4

-1.3

-8.7

sident

ervices

rables

Index

rables

rables


1.15a – (2010 = 100)

1.15b

%

Note: (*) figures are 1 month delayed

Domestic M(2010

Import(201

Constructio

Cp

DomesticSa113.0

114.0

115.0

116.0

117.0

118.0

119.0

120.0

121.0


20142015

5

2553

2553

3

9

2553

b –

, . . 2015


11.7

1.1

0.1

-2.7

-3.4

-6.0

Machinery sales*prices, Baht)

Composite Index

of Capital Goods0 prices, Baht)

on Material SalesIndex

onstruction Areapermitted (sqm)

c Commercial Carales Index

Source: BOT

5.14 –

.

8,562

6,411

14,747

2,474

12,899

15,936

3,720

08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

(Foreign Direct

Investment : FDI)

(Equity

capital)

10

.

.

.

.



2014

2015

.

.

5.15 – .

Source: Board of Investment

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

236

396

648

525

1,023

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

.

10%

.

8

50


288

50

2014/8M 2015/8M

5.16 – .

Source: Board of Investment; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)(**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

49%58% 54%

29

7%

10%7%

17

8%

7%10%

10

7%

10%6%

7%

2%

4%

2%

13

27%

11%21% 25

11FY 12FY 13FY 14F

Europe

Japan

ASEANANIEsUSA

Others


9%20%

7%

5%

0%

30%

%13%

3%13%

5%19%

FY 2015/8M

. .

1.16a –

% , 8 2015

1.16b

%

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

31.8

1.3

-4.7

-6.1

Condo unit registered

New housing unit

Constr. Area in municipal

Value of land transaction

-1.8

-8.1

4

. .

b –

, . . 2015


107.4

4.6

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



5.03a –

9 ,

5.03b

9 ,


Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments(**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

(***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Export Import Tradebalance

2014

2015

– = -20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Expo

-7.6% -5.0-1.9%

b –


ort Import Trade balance– =

0% -10.5%

. . 9

5.05a –

% , 9 2015

5.05b –

%


-1.928.5

25.56.36.2

3.52.31.91.70.5

-0.3-1.5-2.3-4.0-5.0-6.2-6.5-7.8-8.0

-14.3-17.6

-23.0-24.5-25.0

-49.4

Total exportOptical instruOther export

JewelleryAutomotiveMachinery

Other manufacturingPhoto instru

ElectricalElectronics

MetalForestry

Agro productsToiletriesApparelsFootware

AgriculturePetro chemical

FurnitureFishery

AircraftsChemicalsPetroleumRe exports

Mining

Total exportAutomotiveOther exportMachinery

Optical instruJewelleryElectrical

Other manufacturingElectronics

Photo instruForestryMetal

FootwareRe exportsFurnitureToiletriesFishery

ApparelsAircraftsMining

Agro productsPetro chemical

AgricultureChemicalsPetroleum

. . 9


-1.90.9

0.40.30.3

0.20.10.10.10.0

0.00.00.00.00.00.0

-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3

-0.5-0.5

-0.9-1.2

5.07a – 5

%


23.0 24.3 24.6 25.9 26.1

20.4 21.0 21.0 21.2 20.3

11.7 11.1 11.4 11.5 12.0

11.3 10.9 9.5 9.8 10.3

10.5 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.65.0 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2

18.1 17.4 18.1 16.7 16.5


ASEAN

NAFTA

East Asiaex Japan

EU

Japan

Middle East

Rest ofthe world

100% = (Trillion)6.1 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.3

Rest of

East Asi

M

( )

5.07b –

, 9 2015


8.3%

-0.8%

-3.0%

-3.3%

-3.4%

-4.1%

-9.8%

NAFTA

f the world

EU

a ex Japan

ASEAN

Japan

Middle East

7.6% 9 2015

5.09a –

% , 9 2015

5.09b –

%


-7.6

6.3

-0.3

-0.4

-2.2

-34.5

Total import

Consumer goods

Intermediate Non fuel

Others

Capital goods

Intermediate Fuel

Total imp

Consumer goo

Oth

Intermediate Non f

Capital goo

Intermediate F

7.6% 9 2015


-7.6

0.5

0.0

-0.1

-0.5

-7.5

ort

ods

ers

uel

ods

uel

5.08 –


7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0

17.4 18.9 18.9 20.8

44.0 40.0 37.5 35.7

20.9 21.3 24.4 23.3

10.2 12.4 11.4 12.2

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY

Others

Capital goods

Consumer goods

100% = 5.9 7.0

Intermediate Fuel

Intermediate –Non Fuel

7.8 7.7

( )


8.7 9.7

20.8 15.4

38.340.8

24.2 25.5

8.1 8.5

14FY 15/9MO

(Trillion)7.4 5.2

Source: Department of Tourism

5.18 –

CAGR10.6%

10.011.7 11.5

14.5 14.115.9

19.2

22.4

26.524.8

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

. .

20%

9

27.2%


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2014

2015

5.19a 5.19b

10

9 2015,

Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

51.2 53.8 56.0 59.9 58.8

27.9 26.5 25.323.8 24.8

5.3 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.515.6 14.7 13.8 11.9 11.9


EastAsia

Europe

Americas

Rest ofworld

191.4

177.8

163.6

149.9

128.2

118.1

112.9

69.6

China

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Korea

Taiwan

Vietnam

Japan

India

Singapore

USA


2,917.3

885.8

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



. .

2.08 –

%

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

1.83

1.51

1.38 1.381.49

1.04

0.68 0.660.72

0.84

05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

15

30

30

15

. .

1%

1%


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40


2014

2015

2.09 –

, %


0.8

2.0

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.8

4.1

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.5

Thailand Sep

Singapore Q3

Malaysia Aug

South Korea Sep

Hong Kong Sep

Japan Sep

Vietnam 2014

Taiwan Sep

China Q3

India 2013

US Sep

Russia Sep

Indonesia Q1

Pakistan 2014

Australia Sep

Philippines Q3

Brazil Sep

Euro Area Sep


7.6

10.8

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



. .

3.01a – . 3.01b –

3.01c – . 3.01d –

Source: Bank of Thailand Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

2.00%

2.25%

2.50%

Nov-14 Oct-15

0.00%

2.50%

5.00%

7.50%

10.00%

Nov-14 Oct-15 Nov-14

Max

Min

Nov-14

. (

1 ) 12

1

12

12

12

0.5%

1.5%

BIBOR*

.


0.00%

2.50%

5.00%

7.50%

10.00%

Oct-15

Min

Max

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

2.00%

2.25%

2.50%

Oct-15


–

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

D J F M A M J J A

2015

9

9%

36

S O N D

2014


•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



1.18a – * 1.18b

Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index:Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stableIndex > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improvedIndex < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Note: (*) Below is tIndex = 1Index > 1Index < 1

45.250.3 49.1

46.4 46.4 47.3

0

50

100

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

Better

Worse

86.2 85

0

100

200

Apr-15 May

Better

Worse

1,500

3

50

(

) 50

(

) 50

( )

100

100

100

. .

. .

– **

the interpretation of the index:00 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable00 indicates that industries sentiment has improved00 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened


5.4 84.0 83.0 82.4 82.8

y-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

. .

(*) 0-100

50

50

50

1.17 –

Source: Ministry of Commerce

0

50

100

Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-150

50

100


Overall On job

Better

Worse

Better

Worse

0-

100 50

50

50

. .

35.4

50


0

50

100


On future income

Better

Worse

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



.

1.03a –

2015, %

1.03b –

2016, %

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15

Forecast as of, month ending

BOT

FPOThe Economist

poll

NESDB

ForecaM-15 A-15 M-1

(BOT) (NESDB)

(FPO)

.

2.7-3.4% 2015

3.7-4.0% 2016


ast as of, month ending

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15

BOT

The Economist poll

FPO

.

2015 2016

1.04a –

2015, % , 31/10/2015

1.04

2016,


7.46.8

6.46.3

5.75.4

4.83.4

3.22.9

2.52.42.42.3

1.50.7

-2.7-3.8

IndiaChina

PhilippinesVietnamPakistanMalaysiaIndonesiaThailandTaiwan

SingaporeUS

South KoreaHong KongAustraliaEuro Area

JapanBrazilRussia

-0.3-0.9

IndiaChina

VietnamPhilippinesMalaysiaIndonesiaPakistanThailand

SingaporeSouth Korea

TaiwanAustralia

USHong KongEuro Area

JapanRussiaBrazil

.

2015 2016

b –

% , 31/10/2015


7.76.56.5

6.36.1

5.14.7

4.03.0

2.82.62.62.6

2.11.7

1.23

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



. .

3.07a –

%

3.07b

%

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Veg

Tobacco & a

Food away from

Recreation & Edu

Prepared food at

Medic

Non alcoholic bev

Apparel and foo

Housing & furn

Sea

Eggs

Transport & C-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

Head line

Core*

. .

b –

, . . 2015


9.0

2.1

1.8

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-6.5

-15.5

& fruit

alcohol

m home

ucation

t home

al care

verage

otware

Meat

nishing

Rice

soning

& milk

Commu

Energy

3.08 –

%

Source: The EconomistNote: (*) The Economist Poll

Latest

1.

1.

0.8

0.7

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.8

15.7

9.5

6.8

4.4

2.6

2.0

1.6

1.3

1.5

0.6

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

-0.6

-0.8

Russia Sep

Brazil Sep

Indonesia Sep

India Sep

Malaysia Sep

Hong Kong Sep

China Sep

Pakistan Sep

Australia Q3

South Korea Sep

Philippines Sep

Japan Sep

US Sep

Vietnam Oct

Euro Area Oct

Taiwan Sep

Singapore Sep

Thailand Oct

2015*


15.2

8.9

6.4

5.1

2.5

3.1

6

3.9

.7

2.4

2.5

3.09a –

%

3.09

%

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Other manu goPulp & pa

EneC

TexLeather & footw

WMechinForeFore

Non metallic minFM

Electrical eqLivesto

Rubber & plaChem

Basic meFish

Petroleum prod

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%


. .

3.1%

9b –

, . . 2015


3.9

3.1

2.2

2.2

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.4

-1.3

-2.1

-2.9

-2.9

-4.2

-4.9

-11.0

-26.5

oodsaperergyCropxtilewareWoodneryestryestryneralFoodMetalquipocksasticmicaletalshingucts

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



3.02a –

3.02b –


97.2%96.4%

95.7% 95.7%94.9% 94.8% 94.5% 94.5%

90%

95%

100%

Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15

10,600

10,800

11,000

11,200

11,400

11,600

Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15

( )

97.1% 97.3%


95.4%96.5%

97.1% 97.3%

5 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

Y-o-Y+4.8%

M-o-M+0.3%

3.03a –

3.03b –


458 401 380 317 270 256 267 2

07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14

7.31%

5.29% 4.85%3.60%

2.75% 2.26% 2.16% 2.

07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14

Gross NPLs


278 299 312 361

4YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

16% 2.29% 2.38% 2.79%

4YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

.

3.04 –


Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

12.4%13.3%

13.9%14.9%

14.0%

15.8% 16.1%

14.8%

16.2%15.7%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

( .)

17.2% . .

. .


14.5%

15.0%

15.5%

16.0%

16.5%

17.0%

17.5%


2014

2015

3.05 –

31/10/2015


3M risk free interest rates Expected 2015 inf

14.4

12.4

8.3

7.1

6.5

4.7

3.8

3.0

2.5

2.3

1.8

1.6

1.5

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.1

-0.1

Brazil

Russia

Indonesia

India

Pakistan

Vietnam

Malaysia

China

Singapore*

Australia

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Taiwan

Hong Kong

US

Japan

Euro Area

8.9

6.4

5.1

3.9

2.5

2.5

1.6

0.2

1.7

2.4

0.8

0.8

0.1

3.1

0.3

0.7

0.1

= -

1%

flation* Real interest rates=


5.5

-2.8

1.9

2.0

2.6

2.2

1.3

1.4

2.3

0.6

-0.6

0.8

0.7

0.8

-2.7

0.0

-0.6

-0.2

15.2

. . SET 3.4%

Source: SET, The Economist

3.06a – SET

%

3.06c –

28/10/2015

3.06b –

SET MAI, ,

China (SSEB, $ terms)

France (CAC 40)

Germany (DAX)

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

Japan (Nikkei 225)

US (NAScomp)

S Korea (KOSPI)

Pakistan (KSE)

China (SSEA)

US (S&P 500)

US (DJIA)

Australia (All Ord.)

India (BSE)

UK (FTSE 100)

HK (Hang Seng)

Malaysia (KLSE)

Thailand (SET)

Taiwan (TWI)

Singapore (STI)

Indonesia (JSX)

-2.0%

0.6%

-4.3% -4.0%

-2.4%

3.4%


-120.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

SET

. . SET 3.4%

SET

2014


22.0%

14.5%

10.5%

9.8%

8.3%

7.6%

6.6%

6.0%

4.3%

1.5%

-0.2%

-0.3%

-1.7%

-2.0%

-2.7%

-4.2%

-5.9%

-6.9%

-9.6%

-11.8%

•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



2


4.1 –

-0.5%

1.3%

-1.9%

-1.0%

-3.8%

-0.7%-0.2%

-0.6%

1.0%

-1.6%

-1.0%

-4.2%

-2.5%

-0.8%

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY

(Overall cash balances)

(Budget cash balances)

(Non budget cash balances)

9 10

2007-2010

2009

2012

10 2009

2014

2014


-3.4%

-2.1% -2.2%

-3.8%

-1.9%-2.3%

12FY 13FY 14FY

2015


4.2 –

1,2411,390 1,455 1,498 1,484

1,7511,902

2,075 2,158 2,076

-1,277 -1,280

-1,629 -1,598-1,849 -1,825 -1,930

-2,489 -2,424 -2,371

-36110

-174 -100-364

-75 -27

-414-267 -295

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

9 2015

9


-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50


2014

2015

9

4.3 –


-36

110

-174

-100

-364

-75

-27

-414

-45

88

-144

-96

-401

-266

-95

-4

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY

(Overall cash balances)

(Budget cash balances)

(Non budget cash balances)

9 10

2007-2010

2010

2012

8 2015


-267-295

-21

466

-242

-305

-20

Y 13FY 14FY '15/9mo

4.4 –

% , 2015


-1.9

-2.0

-2.0

-2.1

-2.4

-2.6

-2.7

-2.8

-3.8

-4.0

-4.2

-5.1

-6.0

-6.8

South Korea

Hong Kong

Singapore

Taiwan

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand

Euro Area

Australia

US

China

Russia

India

Malaysia

Vietnam

Pakistan

Brazil

Japan

2015

2%


0.3

0.0

-0.7

-1.0

2015

4.5a – 4.5b –

Source: Public Debt Management Office

8% 8% 7% 7% 6%External debtas percent of total

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 Aug-15 2011 2012

Direct Government debt

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt

Public debt fromState Enterprises

(5.7 ) (43%)

( )


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2 2013 2014 Aug-15

Direct Government debt

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt

Public debt fromState Enterprises

4.6 –

, 2014 ( )

Source: CIA fact book

228181

175142

134132131

119119

110107

1021011019896949494939290898786

1 Japan2 Zimbabwe

3 Greece4 Lebanon

5 Italy6 Jamaica7 Portugal8 Cyprus9 Ireland

10 Grenada11 Singapore12 Belgium13 Eritrea

14 Barbados15 Spain

16 France17 Iceland18 Egypt

19 Puerto rico20 Canada21 Bhutan22 Jordan

23 Antigua and barbuda24 UK

25 Cabo verde

39 United40 C43

48 Ur50 Pa

5663 Ma

6771 Th

72 Philip7

80 Vie93 M96 Sw

101 Arg103 South105 Hong

108 T126

129 N133 Indo

137147149 N

164 Saudi

Central Intelligence Agency

CIA 49%

2014

228%

Int’l rule ofthumb<60% ofGDP

60

7170676564

59545149484646

4140383737373030242213122

statesCroatia3 Israelruguayakistan6 Brazilalaysia7 Indiahailandppines8 LaosetnamMexicowedenentinaKoreag kongTurkeyNepalorwayonesia7 ChinaRussiaNigeriaarabia


•

••

•••

• . . 1%

•

•

• 2.7-3.4% 201

• . .

•

• 9

• 9 2015

. .

Grow

thS

tability

2.8%

15 3.7-4.0% 2016

2015



9 2015

(F.

+

5.01 –


31.3

1.25.3

-5.0-1.2

4.9

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo

29.8

10FY 1

-19.7

10FY 1

21.3

10FY 1

9 2015

O.B)


17.0

6.7 6.7

24.6 24.9

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo

-8.1 -8.2-11.8 -9.2

-4.0

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo

-7.7

6.8 0.1

-16.6 -16.0

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo

5.02 –


As % of 2015 GDP*

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

21.2%

12.8%

6.7%

4.9%

4.1%

3.1%

2.8%

2.8%

2.8%

2.7%

2.5%

2.4%

-0.7%

-1.1%

-2.5%

-2.5%

-3.7%

-4.2%

Singapore Q2

Taiwan Q2

South Korea Aug

Russia Q3

Philippines Jun

China Q2

Hong Kong Q2

Japan Aug

Euro Area Aug

Vietnam 2014

Malaysia Q2

Thailand Q2

Pakistan Q2

India Q2

Indonesia Q2

US Q2

Australia Q2

Brazil Sep

-429.0

(Current Account)

12

Last 12 months, USD Billion


69.5

72.8

104.8

64.3

11.7

287.8

7.4

118.8

353.4

9.1

8.8

24.4

-2.6

-25.9

-21.6

-47.4

-79.3

2015


5.10a –

5.10b –

69.0 74.4 76.1 75.3100.6 104.3

130.

06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE

38.5% 35.4% 31.4% 28.8%35.2% 33.7%

38.0%

06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE

.

2009


7 139.9 140.7 136.6

E 13YE 14YE 15/2Q

% 38.2% 34.5% 33.2%

E 13YE 14YE 15/2Q


5.11a – 5.11b –

84% 80% 82% 82% 83%

16% 20% 18% 18% 17%

11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q

55% 56%

45% 44%

11YE 12Y

1 1


% 57% 60% 60%

% 43% 40% 40%

YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q


5.12a – 5.12b –

340%370%

312%

279% 277%293%

10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q

4.7%

3.4%

10FY 11FY

4.7% 8.1%

(293%)

.


4.2% 4.0%

4.7%

8.1%

12FY 13FY 14FY 15/2Q

5.13a – *

5.13b –

**


Note: (*) Including Net Forward position(**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

6.99.1

7.9

13.812.6

10.8 9.9

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

73.9 106.5 118.0 154.1191.7 206.4 205.8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net

forward position .

currency forward contracts

( )

4

2005

10


9.1 9.5 9.7

2 2013 2014 Sep-15

8 190.2 180.2 168.8

2 2013 2014 Sep-15

. .


Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers

USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $,

MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee,KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

5.17b –

%

5.17a – 2007 = 100

Baht

MYR 8.429

MXN 2.15

AUD 25.6645

EUR 39.4362

IDR 2.7675

JPY 29.7506

SGD 25.6677

KRW 0.0313

TWD 1.0991

INR 0.5772

PHP 0.7737

GBP 54.9621

CNY 5.6739

VND 0.0016

USD 35.7589

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

110.0

112.0

114.0

Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

M o M0.0%

Y o Y0.4%

Baht appreciates

Baht depreciates

(Nominal Effective

Exchange Rate)

23

1

. .

1

0.4%

, 30/10/2015

depreciates Baht appreciates


19.4

13.0

12.8

4.6

4.0

0.5

0.0

-1.0

-2.3

-2.4

-4.5

-4.8

-5.3

-6.3

-8.7

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