china mobile phone retail market dashboard report dec 2011_for public release

China Mobile Phone Market

Monthly Retail Audit Dashboard Report

Dec, 2011

博思咨询公司Beijing Hong Kong

January,2012

HU Yang

[email protected]

a thinkbank report

Special edition for global investment banks, PEs, VCs, hedge funds, securities etc. to watch the

trends that are shaping and will transform the future of Chinese mobile world.

Presented by retail.panel

3

Retail Data Collected from Nationwide Audit and Channel Check

4

…Insights Derived from Continuous Consumer Researches

Size Share Product Price Subscriber

Table of Contents

5

Key Figures in Dec-11

Market Size | 3G | Subscribers | Av. Selling Price

235 Million

2011 YTD M-size

20.5Million

11.6 Million

9.6 Million

74 pct

Dec-11 M-size

Dec-11 ASP

3G Sales Units in Dec-11

3G subscriber new addition in Dec-11

185 USD

Mobile phone penetration +17.3% Y/Y

+6.9%M/M

+27.5% Y/Y

6

+11.0%M/M

CM=3.2M

CU=3.5M

CT=3.1M

Market Size Summary / 2011

235million units sold to end users, representing +17.3% Y/Y growth in 2011.

2011 Year to Date Market Size // Dec, 2011

YTD Market Size Breakdown by Technology

YTD Market Size Breakdown by Market Type

235 Million units

+17.3% Year-on-year

2G Device Market (Million) 3G Device Market (Million)

GSM 63.3(27%) TD-SCDMA 27.6(12%)

GPRS/EDGE 45.7(19%) WCDMA 49.5(21%)

CDMA1X 19.0(8%) EVDO 30.0(13%)

Market Type Sales (M) Percentage %

Phones with CTA(1) 235 86.3%

White-box (without CTA) 16.3 6.0%

Grey market(2) 21.0 7.7%

(1)CTA: Certification of Type Approval by Ministry of Industry & Information Technology

(2)Grey market: mainly smuggling phones from overseas.

***Market size in this report are referring to CTA market size unless there is specific notation.

+17.3% robust growth through 2011

• China mobile phone retail market size witnessed rapid

growth in 2011, reached 235 million in 2011, up 17.3%

y/y. It’s worthy notice that market size in 2nd half of

2011 grew remarkably +27%, mainly driven by

smartphones, which also indicates dramatic growth

rate in 2012.

• 3G market size increased rapidly at the shrink of 2G

market, to 128 million or 54% of total market in the

entire 2011.

• WCDMA phones outperform that of TD-SCDMA &

EVDO in 2011, registered 49.5 million units due to

more diversified brands and products. While TD-

SCDMA and EVDO continued to suffer from more or

less the same problem of weak products and limited

phone manufacturers.

• White-box market encountered slowing down because

of 3G and smart phone growth.

7

17.7

19.2 18.7

17.6

19.2 18.6

21.8

20.1 20.5

21.9

19.2

20.5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2009 2010 2011

Monthly Market Size Development

20.5 million phones sold in Dec-11, including 11.6 million 3G phones, closing the whole year with 235 million units or

+17.3% y/y growth. Market growth accelerated in the 2nd half of 2011, grew by +27% y/y.

Total Market (million units) 3G Market (million units)

Total Size M/M growth % Y/Y growth % 3G Size M/M growth % Y/Y growth %

20.5 +6.9 +27.5 11.6 +11.0 +122%

Total Market Size Development (2G + 3G) in millions

8

China 3G Market Size Development by Technology // 2009~Now (M units)

3G Market Size Trend by Technology

WCDMA market size is burgeoning, accounting for nearly half of China’s 3G market as the end of 2011.

9

0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9

1.3 1.7 1.9

2.4 2.3 2.7

3.7 3.1

3.7 3.6

4.5 4.8

5.2

6.1 6.6

7.6 7.3

8.4 8.6 9.0

9.6

10.5

11.2

10.5

11.6

y = 0.0088x2 + 0.0256x - 0.2445 R² = 0.9925

0

5

10

15

2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

EVDO

TD-SCDMA

WCDMA

3G Total

WCDMA

TD-SCDMA

EVDO

47%

26%

27%

2G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11

2G market holds 43% unit share in Dec-11 meanwhile captured only 25% value share due to lower ASP of 2G

phones.

2G Market = 8.9M units

(43% of China Market)

(GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X)

10

27.1%

19.3%

6.7% 6.0% 4.9%

4.7%

3.7%

2.6%

2.0%

1.7%

21.3%

NOKIA

Samsung

Gionee

OPPO

Tianyu

BBK

Lenovo

LG

Motorola

ZTE

Others

2G Market = 1.4B US$


(GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X)

26.5%

15.7%

11.3% 7.3%

7.1%

4.3%

3.3%

2.6%

2.2%

1.5% 18.2%

Nokia

Samsung

OPPO

BBK

Gionee

Lenovo

Tianyu

Motorola

LG

DOOV

Others

3G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11

With 57% unit share, 3G market occupied 75% of total value share in Dec-11, Nokia still held 19.8% value share and

ranked #2 in 3G market.

3G Market =2.4B US$


(TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO)

11

28.3%

19.8%

14.8%

6.3%

5.2%

4.3%

4.3%

3.8%

2.9%

2.5% 7.7% Samsung

Nokia

Apple

Motorola

Huawei

ZTE

HTC

Coolpad

SonyEricsson

Lenovo

Others

3G Market =11.6M units


(TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO)

21.4%

13.0%

11.0%

10.4%

8.3%

5.2%

5.0%

3.3%

2.6%

2.3%

17.6%

Samsung

Huawei

ZTE

NOKIA

Lenovo

Apple

Coolpad

HTC

Motorola

SonyEricsson

Others

3G Market Monthly Brand Market Share Development

Nokia has been losing market share for the whole year in 3G market, however, it seems that Samsung failed to grab

the opportunity. China local manufacturers ZTE & Huawei gained remarkable market share growth in 2011.

100%=

14% 11% 12% 11% 11% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13% 15% 18%

6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%

6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 5%

5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 5%

30% 32% 26% 27% 25% 20% 20% 18% 15%

15% 12% 10%

5% 6% 8% 8%

9% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%

6% 9% 10% 10% 11% 12% 10% 11% 14% 11% 14% 13%

23% 19% 19% 20% 21% 21% 23% 23% 24% 24% 22% 21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

Samsung

Huawei

ZTE

NOKIA

Lenovo

Apple

Coolpad

HTC

Motorola

SonyEricsson

Others

3G Market Top10 Brand Shares Development

6.1 6.6 7.6 7.3 8.4 8.6 9.0 9.6 10.5 11.2 10.5 11.6

12

Brand Market Share Trend

Nokia is declining in the 2nd half of 2011 in total market, while Lenovo, Huawei & ZTE was catching up quickly. In 3G

market, Nokia was going down dramatically and Lenovo in particularly was growing dramatically in Q4.

13

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

Samsung

Nokia

2G+3G Market Brand Shares Trend 3G Market Brand Shares Trend

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%


Huawei

ZTE

Lenovo

Gionee

Tianyu

Coolpad

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


Samsung

Huawei

ZTE

Nokia

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%


Lenovo

Apple

Coolpad

HTC

Motorola

WCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11

Samsung was dominating with 25.7% m-share & 1.4 million units shipment, followed by Nokia with 20.9% m-share &

nearly 1.1 million units shipment in Dec-11.

Samsung, 25.7%

NOKIA, 20.9%

Apple, 11.0%

Lenovo, 8.4%

ZTE, 5.9%

HTC, 5.0%

Huawei, 3.9%

Motorola, 3.6%

SonyEricsson, 2.6%

Coolpad, 2.4%

Others, 10.5%

# BrandDec-11

M-Share

M-Share

changeSales K

1 Samsung 25.7% (1.9) 1397

2 NOKIA 20.9% (5.1) 1135

3 Apple 11.0% 3.0 600

4 Lenovo 8.4% 1.7 457

5 ZTE 5.9% (0.0) 323

6 HTC 5.0% 1.0 269

7 Huawei 3.9% 1.0 210

8 Motorola 3.6% (0.3) 197

9 SonyEricsson 2.6% 0.2 143

10 Coolpad 2.4% 1.0 130

11 MI 1.8% 1.8 100

12 LG 1.7% (0.6) 95

13 Tianyu 1.1% (0.1) 62

14 BlackBerry 1.0% 0.7 55

15 Gionee 0.8% 0.1 45

16 OPPO 0.8% (0.1) 45

17 BBK 0.8% 0.4 43

18 Hisense 0.5% 0.3 27

19 CHANGHONG 0.5% 0.3 27

20 Dopod 0.3% (0.1) 18

14

EVDO: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11

Huawei exceeded Samsung in EVDO market and became the number 1 brand with 26.3% unit share, which can be

attributed to a range of best selling CT customized thousand-yuan Android smart phones.

Huawei, 26.3%

Samsung, 22.2%

ZTE, 7.1%

Coolpad, 6.1%

Haier, 4.0% SonyEricsson, 3.3%

HTC, 2.9%

LG, 2.4%

EMI, 2.1%

BenWee, 2.1%

Others, 21.4%

# BrandDec-11

M-Share

M-Share

changeSales K

1 Huawei 26.3% (2.8) 836

2 Samsung 22.2% (0.9) 708

3 ZTE 7.1% (1.9) 225

4 Coolpad 6.1% (1.8) 196

5 Haier 4.0% 0.5 128


7 HTC 2.9% (0.7) 91

8 LG 2.4% 1.3 77

9 EMI 2.1% 0.9 68

10 BenWee 2.1% 0.9 68

11 Hisense 1.9% 0.9 61

12 EPHONE 1.8% 0.9 58

13 Motorola 1.8% (3.0) 58

14 SHARP 1.3% (0.2) 41

15

TD-SCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11

China domestic manufactures were jointly ruling the TD market. ZTE was the no.1 manufacturer with 24.1% and

followed by Lenovo with 16.5%, Huawei with 15.4%.

ZTE, 24.1%

Lenovo, 16.5%

Huawei, 15.4%

Samsung, 12.9%

Coolpad, 8.4%

Tianyu, 4.2%

Nokia, 2.4%

Gionee, 2.2%

LG, 1.4%

Hisense, 1.6%

Others, 10.9%

# BrandDec-11

M-Share

M-Share

changeSales K

1 ZTE 24.1% 0.8 729

2 Lenovo 16.5% 1.5 500

3 Huawei 15.4% 0.5 468

4 Samsung 12.9% (0.1) 392

5 Coolpad 8.4% (1.8) 255

6 Tianyu 4.2% 1.1 127

7 NOKIA 2.4% 0.1 71

8 Gionee 2.2% 0.1 68

9 LG 1.4% (1.3) 43

10 Hisense 1.6% (0.4) 48

11 DESAY 1.2% (0.9) 35

12 Bird 1.1% (0.8) 34

13 Motorola 1.4% (0.1) 43

14 ASUS 1.3% 0.4 38

15 HTC 0.9% (0.1) 26

16 Mastone 0.9% 0.1 27

17 Haier 0.9% 0.5 29


19 T-SMART 0.5% 0.1 16

20 SICT 0.4% 0.1 11

21 DELL 0.2% (0.2) 7

22 BlackBerry 0.3% 0.1 11

23 Dopod 0.2% (0.0) 8

24 Postcom 0.1% (0.1) 3

25 TCL 0.2% 0.1 6 16

2G(GSM/CDMA) Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11

Nokia still holds the no.1 position in 2G market with 27.1% unit share, or 2.4 million units shipment in Dec-11.

17

NOKIA, 27.1%

Samsung, 19.3%

Gionee, 6.7% OPPO, 6.0%

Tianyu, 4.9%

BBK, 4.7%

Lenovo, 3.7%

LG, 2.6%

Motorola, 2.0%

ZTE, 1.7%

Others, 21.3%

# BrandDec-11 M-

Share

M-Share

changeSales K

1 NOKIA 27.1% 0.8 2407

2 Samsung 19.3% (0.5) 1719

3 Gionee 6.7% 0.1 592

4 OPPO 6.0% 0.2 536

5 Tianyu 4.9% 0.9 437

6 BBK 4.7% 0.0 419

7 Lenovo 3.7% (0.4) 327

8 LG 2.6% (0.0) 229

9 Motorola 2.0% 0.2 176

10 ZTE 1.7% (0.2) 149

11 Huawei 1.3% (0.2) 116

12 Konka 1.2% (0.1) 109

13 Bird 1.0% 0.0 93

14 DOOV 1.0% 0.0 84

15 Philips 0.9% (0.1) 83

16 HOT 0.8% 0.7 74

17 Hisense 0.8% 0.1 67

18 Coolpad 0.7% 0.1 65

19 CHANGHONG 0.7% (0.2) 64

20 Koobee 0.6% 0.0 55

21 DESAY 0.5% 0.1 46

22 AUX 0.5% 0.0 44

23 Haier 0.5% 0.0 43

24 Malata 0.5% (0.1) 42

25 HOSIN 0.4% (0.1) 38

Price Tier Development

80.5% phones were sold under 1,500rmb in 2011.

18

Price Tier Development (2G + 3G) in CNY

26.2% 26.3% 24.1% 22.4% 23.0% 25.4% 23.9% 24.2% 27.3% 23.8% 23.9% 24.1% 24.5%

18.8% 17.6% 19.1% 20.9% 19.7% 18.4% 17.1% 16.4%

15.2% 16.2% 16.8% 15.4% 17.6%

16.7% 17.6% 18.7% 17.6% 19.7% 18.0% 18.9% 18.4% 17.8% 19.3% 16.7% 17.3%

18.1%

22.2% 21.4% 19.5% 19.9% 17.4% 17.6% 21.3% 21.5% 19.9% 19.9% 21.3% 21.4% 20.3%

6.2% 7.0% 7.9% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.1% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.8% 7.5% 7.4%

4.5% 4.8% 4.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.5% 5.8% 7.4% 7.5% 7.0% 7.2% 8.3% 6.3%

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 YTD

>=3000

2500-2999

2000-2499

1500-1999

1000-1499

700-999

400-699

<400

Weighted Average Retail Price Development

3G phone ASP stabilized in 2011 while WCDMA phones was apparently sold higher than that of EVDO and TD-

SCDMA phones.

19

0

1000

2000

3000

4000


WCDMA EVDO TD-SCDMA 2G Overall 3G Overall

Average Retail Price Weighted by Sales Units (CNY)

Display Size and Camera Resolution Trend

Big screens and high resolution cameras were the main product trend in 2011. Phones with >4.0 screen and >3MP

or 5MP camera will be the mainstream product features in 2012.

52% 42%

29% 34%

45%

49%

44% 30%

4% 9%

25% 32%

2% 4%

2009 2010 2011YTD Dec-11

>=5inch

4-4.9inch

3-3.9inch

2-2.9inch

<2inch

Display Size Trend / 2009~now Camera Resolution Trend / 2009~now

33% 28% 20% 18%

22% 21%

19% 19%

15%

11%

7% 4%

17%

22%

23%

18%

9% 13%

17%

20%

3% 5% 11%

16%

2% 4%

2009 2010 2011YTD Dec-11

>8MP

8MP

5MP

3MP

2MP

1MP

300K

None-cmr

20

Smart Phone Market

Android phones were ramping in 2011, driving smart phone penetration rate of China market grow to >30%, almost

doubled in 2011.

21

1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7

2.2 2.1 2.5 2.7

2.4 2.7

2.4 2.0 2.1

1.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.2 0.4 0.3

0.4

0.8 0.9

1.4 1.7

2.1

2.6 3.1 4.2 4.6

4.0 4.2

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

0.2 0.2

0.3

0.4 0.4

0.6 0.6

0.6

0.7

0.4 0.6

11% 9%

8% 8% 9% 10%

11% 11% 10%

11% 10% 10%

12% 12% 12%

10%

11% 12% 11% 12% 11%

13% 14% 14% 15%

19% 20%

26% 28%

29% 29%

33%

36% 36% 35%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

2

4

6

8

10


Symbian

Android

Apple

Microsoft

Others

SM as % of Total

Smart Phone Market Size Split by OS / Smart Phone Penetration Rate

3G Market / Dec-11

11.6 million 3G devices sold out while 3G subscribers added 9.8 million in Dec-11, which means 16% 3G phone

users still keep with 2G services.

22

51.2, 40%

36.4, 29%

40, 31%

CM TD-SCDMA

CT EVDO

CU WCDMA

3G Subscriber Share by Operator (in million) China Total Accumulated 3G subscribers as the end of Dec-11 is 128 million

Operator Network Technology

Dec-11 New Addition (M)

Subscriber Device

Operating by CU

3.2 (33%) 3.0 (26%)

Operating by CT 3.1 (32%) 3.2 (28%)

Operating by CMCC 3.5 (35%) 5.4 (46%)

China Total 9.8 11.6

Subscriber by Operator / Dec-11

As the end of Dec-11, China registered 987 million mobile phone subscribes with around 128 million new additions in

2011. Number of total 3G subscribers reached 128 million, i.e. 13% of total.

Total: 199.6 million (20.5%)

• 2G: 159.6 [80%]

• 3G: 40.0 [20%]

Accumulated 3G subs.: 32.2M

987 million mobile phone subscribers as the

end of 2011 in China, representing

the nationwide mobile phone

penetration rate of 74%.

128 million of 3G subscribers, i.e. 13% of China

total mobile subscribers.

Total: 649.6 million (66.6%)

• 2G: 598 [92%]

• 3G: 51.2 [8%]

Accumulated 3G subs.: 65.6M

Total: 126 million (12.9%)

• 2G: 89.6 [71%]

• 3G: 36.4 [29%]

Accumulated 3G subs.: 51M

China total subscriber and 3G new addition data are quoted from MIIT; By operator data are coming from operators’ public release.

Please note that There is slight discrepancies with MIIT & operator data.

23

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china mobile phone retail market dashboard report dec 2011_for public release

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