China, the US and the North Korea Nuclear Problem

By Lam Wai Chung Alexander

Introduction

• North Korea, one of the major threat to US

• 北朝鮮是美國的一個主要威脅

• Communist and possession of nuclear weapons

• 核武器和共產主義

Background

• Founded in 1946 by Korean Worker’s Party• 1946 年建立由朝鮮勞動黨

• Communist rule, under leader Kim Il Sung• 在領導人金日成之下以共產主義管治 ,

• Fought against US in Korean War in 1950• 1950 年與美國在朝鮮戰爭中作戰

Background

• US help the south fought back• 美國幫助南部反擊

• The Chinese army joined and push back US troops to 38th parallel

• 中國軍隊參戰並將美軍推回三八線

• First Sino-US confrontation involving North Korea• 第一次牽涉北韓的中美交鋒

Background

• Set the orientation of the three countries

• 把三個國家定位

• North Korea • Ally hostile

•

• China improving relations US

The Nuclear Problem

• Started the development on nuclear energy in 1960s

• 在 60 年代開始了在核能的發展

• DPRK has her own uranium ore• 北韓有自己的鈾礦

• USSR was their major support• 蘇聯是他們的主要支持

The Nuclear Problem

• DPRK gradually mastered more of the technology• 北韓逐漸掌握了更多技術

• Drew the attention of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

• 引起了國際原子能組織的注意

• Signed an agreement over inspection of nuclear facilities• 簽署了在核設施檢查的一個協議

The Nuclear Problem

• In 1980s, DPRK began studies on practical uses of nuclear energy

• 在 80 年代 , 北韓開始了關於核能實用用途的研究

• Accusations of producing nuclear weapons• 生產核武器的指責

• Received great international pressure• 受到的巨大國際壓力

The Nuclear Problem

• Signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1985 with IAEA

• 1985 年跟國際原子能機構簽署核不擴散條約

• Accusations went on after the NPT• 指責在簽署條約以後繼續

• poor diplomatic manner made them an evil image • 差劣的外交手腕為他們建立一個邪惡的形像

The Nuclear Problem

• 1980s onwards, PRC and USSR became less supportive

• 80 年代往前 , 中國和蘇聯支援減退

• Turned to Iran, East Germany, Pakistan, etc.

• 轉向伊朗、東德、巴基斯坦 , 等。

The First Crisis

• Did not work cooperatively on diplomatic relations

• 沒有在外交關係工作上合作

• Delayed the inspections by IAEA and South Korea on her nuclear facilities

• 延遲由 IAEA 和南韓檢查她的核設施

The First Crisis

• Unstable foreign relations with the US• 與美國的外交關係不穩定

• In 1992, US suspect DPRK had 2 secret sites• 1992 年 , 美國懷疑北韓 2 個秘密核設施

• DPRK rejected the request of IAEA to inspect to the 2 sites

• 北韓拒絕讓 IAEA 人員檢查該兩處地點

The First Crisis

• 12 March 1993, DPRK withdrew from NPT• 1993 年 3 月 12 日 , 北韓退出核不擴散條約

• Countries persuaded DPRK to reconsider the decision

• 多國遊說北韓重新考慮決定

• The world was afraid of nuclear attack• 世界對核攻擊充滿恐懼

The First Crisis

• Negotiation came up with little progress• 談判進展緩慢

• US put forward a stronger posture, threaten DPRK with sanctions, or even military actions

• 美國擺出更強硬的姿態 , 以制裁甚至武力威脅北韓

The First Crisis

• In February 1994, DPRK gave in and allowed IAEA experts to enter and inspect

• 在 1994 年 2 月 , 北韓讓步 , 允許國際原子能機構專家進入和檢查

• Later, an ‘Agreed Framework’ was concluded between US and DPRK

• 美國和北韓簽訂 ` 框架協議 '

First Crisis

• According to the framework:• 根據框架協議

• DPRK has to freeze her nuclear facilities• 北韓必須凍結她的核設施

• US has to build 2 light-water reactors in DPRK by 2003, before that, provide heavy oil to compensate the energy insufficiency

• 美國必須在 2003 年以前在北韓修造 2 個輕水反應堆 , 那以前 , 提供重油補償能量不足

First Crisis

• The framework marked the end of the first crisis• 框架協議結束了第一次危機

• Tension remains as agreement was made on mistrust

• 協議在互不信任上簽署 ,局勢依然緊張

First Crisis

• US played the leading role in solving the 1st crisis

• 美國在解決第 1 次危機中扮演主導角色

• China, Japan and S. Korea had relatively smaller influence

• 中國、日本和南韓相對地影響力較小

Inter-crisis period

• Talks continued to fixed the details of the framework

• 雙方繼續談話商討框架協議的細節

• Deals were difficult to make due to their mistrust• 由於他們的互不信任 ,很難達成協議

Inter-crisis period

• China’s political direction diverge from DPRK one

• 中國的政治方向和北韓逐漸偏離

• Relations with US improved greatly under Clinton’s administration

• 中美關係在克林頓政府之下大幅改進

The Second Crisis

• US has been always suspicious DPRK of producing nuclear weapons

• 美國一直懷疑北韓生產核武器

• US led an energy organization to build light-water reactors on DPRK

• 美國帶領的能源組織在北韓修造輕水反應堆

• Capital wasn’t provided, US$47m debt• 資金未能按時提供 , US$47m 債務

The Second Crisis

• DPRK accused US deliberately produce energy insufficiency in DPRK

• 指責美國故意在北韓制造能源危機

• To respond, US accused DPRK of not abandoning nuclear weapons

• 美國回應 , 指責北韓並未放棄核武器

• Tension and mistrust accumulate over 1998-2002• 1998-2002間 ,緊張和不信任一直積累

The Second Crisis

• October 2002, US showed the evidence of DPRK development in nuclear weapons

• 2002 年 10 月 , 美國顯示了北韓發展核武器的證據

• DPRK first denied, 2 days later suddenly admitted ‘research on more powerful weapons’

• 北韓先否認 ,但後來突然承認正在研發更具威力的武器

The Second Crisis

• 13 November, US stopped the supply of heavy oil to DPRK

• 11 月 13 日 , 美國停止了對北韓供應重油

• 22 December, DPRK lifted the freeze on nuclear facilities • 12 月 22 日 , 北韓重新啟動核設施

• 10 January 2003, DPRK declared the withdrawal from the NPT

• 2003 年 1 月 10 日 , 北韓宣佈退出核不擴散條約

The Second Crisis

• China took the initiative to peaceful talks• 中國主動採取了和平對話

• 3 parties talk held in Beijing, April 2003• 3方會談在北京 2003 年 4 月舉行

• China, DPRK and US attended• 中國、北韓和美國出席

The Second Crisis

• Later in August, the first round of Six-parties talk started in Beijing

• 8 月 , 第一輪六方會談在北京開始

• DPRK, US, China, Japan, S. Korea, Russia

• 北韓 , 美國 , 中國 , 日本 , 南韓 , 俄國

Six-Parties Talk

• DPRK’s stand: US should eliminate hostility towards DPRK, guarantee not to attack DPRK before they can abandon their nuclear plan

• 北韓的立場 : 美國應該對北韓消除敵意 , 在他們保證不攻擊北韓之前 , 不可能摒棄核計劃

Six-Parties Talk

• US stand: DPRK should ‘Completely and irreversibly abandon all nuclear plans’ before US can offer any concession

• 美國立場 : 北韓如果 ` 完全地和不可逆地摒棄所有核計劃’ , 美國可以作出讓步

Six-Parties Talk

• Japan stand: simultaneously solve the problem of nuclear weapon, missiles, and the abduction of Japanese spies. DPRK should ‘completely abandon all nuclear plans’.

• 日本立場 : 同時解決核武器、飛彈 , 和日本間諜的綁架問題。北韓應該’完全地 摒棄所有核計劃’。

Six-Parties Talk

• China, S. Korea and Russia have similar stands:• 中國、南韓和俄國有相似的立場 :

• Ensure denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, clear the security worry of DPRK, and keep the region’s peace through discussion

• 保證朝鮮半島無核化 ,消除北韓安全憂慮 , 和通過討論保持地區的和平

Six-Parties Talk

• Little progress was made in the first three rounds of talks

• 在第一至三輪會談進展緩慢

• Breakthrough came in the fourth round of talk, September 2005

• 2005 年 9 月 , 第四輪會談出現突破

Six-Parties Talk

• DPRK is willing to give up all nuclear weapons and plans and rejoin the NPT

• 北韓願意放棄所有核武器和計劃並重返 NPT

• US confirmed that she has no nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula and will not attack DPRK

• 美國證實她在朝鮮半島沒有核武器 , 並不會攻擊北韓

Six-Parties Talk

• Similar agreement was made as the 1994 agreed framework

• 簽署了的協議和 1994 框架協議很相似

• The nuclear problem is contained and to be solved by peaceful means

• 核問題受到控制和通過和平手段解決

Decoding

• Failure in Afghanistan and Iraq• 在阿富汗和伊拉克的失敗

• Bush’s foreign policy severely questioned• 布殊的外交政策被嚴重質疑

• Treat DPRK is a milder way• 在北韓問題以更寬鬆的方式處理

Decoding

• China replaced US as the leading role in solving the crisis

• 中國替換了美國作為在解決危機的主導

• Rise of voices for unification in S. Korea, oppose strong measures taken by US and Japan

• 在南韓統一的聲音興起 , 反對由美國和日本採取的強硬措施

Decoding

• Rising status in economic and political aspect, as well as influence in the region

• 在經濟 /政治的方面的地位上升 , 並且增強在這個區域的影響

• China led US through the crisis

• 中國帶領了美國通過危機

Decoding

• Details of the agreement not yet confirmed • 協議的細節未被確定

• Mistrust still exist between DPRK and US• 北韓和美國之間仍然存在不信任

• On the day after the agreement, DPRK request US build the reactors first before they abandon nuclear plans

• 協議以後第二日 , 北韓要求美國在他們摒棄核計劃之前先提供反應堆

On the backside

• Countries don’t want the problem to be solved so soon

• 大國不想問題那麼很快被解決

• Japan, the nuclear problem in Korea can be an excuse for her to expand army

• 韓國核問題可能是日本的一個藉口擴展軍隊

• Russia want to exert more influence in East Asia• 俄國想在東亞施加更多影響力

On the backside

• For US and China, their major consideration is their relations

• 美國和中國的主要考慮是他們的關係

• unstable situation can keep US army on the peninsula

• 不穩定的情況可以保留在朝鮮半島的美軍

• US opposes ‘Sunshine policy’, list DPRK as ‘evil axis’

• 美國反對‘陽光政策’ ,列北韓為 ` 邪惡軸心’國家

On the backside

• Existence of the nuclear problem recognize the diplomatic importance of China between US and Japan

• 核問題在美國和日本之間認可中國的外交重要性

• Strategic value of China will fall if the problem is solved, US will further surround China

• 如果問題被解決 , 中國的戰略價值將下跌 , 美國將進一步圍堵中國

Looking Ahead

• US and China remain in a strategic partner-competitor relationship

• 美國和中國持續在一個戰略夥伴 -競爭者關係之中

• The nuclear problem will be a tool to counterbalance the decisions of US and China

• 核問題制衡美國和中國雙方的決定

The End