China’s Stance in the Region

Woosuk Ken Choi

Deputy Editor

The Chosun Daily Newspaper

Time Line

5000 Years of Brilliant History

• 三國志

• Tang, Song, Ming

• 毛澤東 : Proud to be a united country

Han Dysnasty

China in 1914

China Today

Relationship with neighbors

• Until 1800’s, Korea paid tribute.

• In the past 2000 years, China invaded about 90 times

• The last war was in 1950.

• The Chinese military invaded Vietnam in 1979.

Territorial Ambition?

• Tibet,

• Xinjang Uyghur

• parts of Mongolia

• Border conflict with Korea, Russia, Vietnam, Myanmar, India

• Recent tension in South China Sea :

• Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines.

Chinese Foreign Policy

• 鄧小平 : One of the smartest leader in the Chinese History

• 黑猫白猫 : Black Cat or White Cat?

• 韜光養晦 : Refrain until strong enough?

• “Do not engage in military conflict with the US.”

• “Focus on Economy.”

Problems China face today

• Is Nationalism spilling over to foreign policy?

• No military conflict?

• Don’t want to be pushed around.

• The Chinese government has been successful so far in containing and suppressing nationalism.

Dilemma

• With the current political system, China cannot leap forward to the next stage.

• The next stage is an economy based on creativity

• Free thinking is pre-requisite for creativity

Esko Aho, former PM of Finland

• “Is jaywalking popular in your country?”• Our educational system is to produce uniform

1 million laborer to work in factories. In industrial age, this was a viable model.

• Today the world is different.• The average education level in the US is lower

than that of Japan, Finland, Korea, or Singapore.

• “But we don’t have Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, Larry Paige etc.”

• Today’s economy : 1 ‘Bill Gates’ supports 100,000 people.

Chinese Technology

• Space travel

• ICBM

• Submarine

Consumer Technology : ?????

• Compare to the US, Japan, or Korea?

• Phone, car, cosmetic

• Channel, Gucci, Prada

Mobile Phones

Cars

Softpower

• Tang, Song, Ming Dynasty : the world flocked to China

• Today, Chinese Softpower ? : Manchurians, Koreans, ethnic minorities wants to be Chinese

• There are 2 million Korean Chinese in Korea along with about half a million ethnic Chinese in Korea.

• Still long way to go. Sergei Brin?

What about the US?

• The only country in the world history to elect a minority to its leader in a democratic way.

New President Elect

• Last week, the opposite happened by electing Trump.

Trump

Trump USA?

•Quid pro Quo‘Frontier Merchant Spirit’

• ASEAN

• China

• North East Asia

Players in the Region

US Military Installations in Asia

What Shall We Do?

• Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore : Free Flow of Navigation

• Korea, Japan : Ask Friends Afar to come to NEA.

Recent Stand Off

• Admiral Wu Shengli“a minor incident could spark war in the

South China Sea if the United States did not stop its ‘provocative acts’ in the disputed waterway”

• Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery“the chances of an unintentional incident in the disputed waters of the South China Sea are ‘pretty low.’ These are professional navies.”

Conclusion

• China-refrain, educate, upgrade political

system, build trust, no bullying• Korea & Japan : ???• Singapore

-Stay neutral as long as possible-Follow the Swiss model-Stay competitive-PM Lee Kwan Yew “education takes long

time”

After Thought

• NATO : Europe + US-Survey : War in Europe 0% in 50 years

• NEATO : China, Korea, Japan, US“War in Asia 0% today, 50% in 50 years”

• SEATO : ASEAN, China, US

• SNEATO :ASEAN,China,US,Korea,Japan