chinese steel market development and outlook · chinese steel market development and outlook wu...

1

中国钢铁工业协会

CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION

Dec. 5-6, 2011 Paris CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION

Chinese Steel Market Development and Outlook

Wu Jingjing



Source：SSB，Sinosteel, Mysteel 2

1.71 1.79 1.81

1.91 1.9 1.94 1.92

1.98 1.9

1.94 1.95 1.98 1.92

1.97 1.96 2.018

1.955 1.9499 1.935 1.9419 1.947 1.9053

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

中国粗钢日产量（单位：million mt)

Output Q1-Q3 2011 ：

Crude Steel 525.74 million mt， up 10.7% yoy ；

Pig Iron 485.52 million mt， up 10.4% yoy ；

Steel Products 667.29 million mt，up 13.9% yoy ；(including double counting)

Steel Production

Daily Crude Steel Output mmt

2



Steel Products Output for China Q1- Q3 2011 and 2010

unit：million mt

Q1-Q3 2011 Yoy% 2010 Yoy%

Steel products* 667.29 13.9 796.27 14.68

Plate 133.47 4.0 167.55 19.48

Hot rolled coil 39.42 16.0 37.61 20.12

Cold rolled sheet &coil 43.55 17.4 51.78 29.34

Coated 23.56 18.7 28.47 37.56

Seamless pipe 19.56 10.7 25.28 14.67

Rebar 112.72 18.7 130.96 7.78

Wire rod 91.39 17.2 105.53 9.10

*: including double counting

Daily Steel Products Output mmt

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Sep/10 Oct/10 Nov/10 Dec/10 Jan/11 Feb/11 Mar/11 Apr/11 May/11 Jun/11 Jul/11 Aug/11 Sep/11

日产daily output mmt

Crude Steel Consumption mmt

-8.8-5.46

4.61 6.22 7.429.72

5.91 6.228.74

15.4216.41

11.2814.39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

/10

Oct/10

Nov

/10

Dec

/10

Jan/11

Feb

/11

Mar

/11

Apr

/11

May

/11

Jun/11

Jul/1

1

Aug

/11

Sep

/11

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20消费consumption

同比 yoy %



Monthly Crude Steel Output mmt Monthly Pig Iron Output mmt

Crude steel output

-3.82

14

9.7 97.1 7.8

11.9

15.513.8

16.5

-5.9

4.84

6.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

产量output

同比 yoy %Pig iron output

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

Sep/10

Oct/10

Nov/10

Dec/10

Jan/11

Feb/11

Mar/11

Apr/11

May/11

Jun/11

Jul/11

Aug/11

Sep/11

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

产量output

同比 yoy %

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

Sep-

10

Oct-

10

Nov-

10

Dec-

10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

May-

11

Jun-

11

Jul-11 Aug-

11

Sep-

11


1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-

11

Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-

11

Sep-11


Daily Crude Steel Output mmt Daily Pig Iron Output mmt

3



14.15

7.2

4.9

6.2

4.41

3.14

6.98

6.2

0 5 10 15

煤炭开采

石化

纺织

服装

汽车

钢铁

机械制造

工业各行平均 9.49

4.53

1.16

4.17

2.61

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan

-04

Jun

-04

No

v-0

4

Ap

r-0

5

Sep

-05

Feb

-06

Jul-

06

De

c-0

6

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Au

g-0

8

Jan

-09

Jun

-09

No

v-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Sep

-10

Feb

-11

Jul-

11

De

c-1

1

大中型钢铁企业销售利润率

Performance of Steel Market

From Jan. to Sep. 2011 , the profit of CISA’s members (77) was 82.34 billion RMB.(From Jan. to Sep. 2010 it is 64.46

billion RMB，up 27.74 % yoy)

Sales Profitability in the 1H of 2011(%) CISA’ s members’ Sales Profitability in 2011(%)

average

Mechinery Manufactury

Steel

Automobile

Clothing

Textile

Petrochemical

Coal



80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Sep-

10

Oct-

10

Nov-

10

Dec-

10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

May-

11

Jun-

11

Jul-

11

Aug-

11

composite priceindex#REF!

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Sep-

10

Oct-

10

Nov-

10

Dec-

10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

May-

11

Jun-

11

Jul-

11

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

long products index

#REF!

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Sep-

10

Oct-

10

Nov-

10

Dec-

10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

May-

11

Jun-

11

Jul-

11

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

flat products index

#REF!

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

Sep/10 Oct/10 Nov/10 Dec/10 Jan/11 Feb/11 Mar/11 Apr/11 May/11 Jun/11 Jul/11 Aug/11 Sep/11

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

库存inventory mmt

环比mom％

Domestic Long Products Price Index

Domestic Flat Products Price Index Domestic 5 Steel Products Inventory

Domestic Composite Price Index

4



7

18.48

38.1

31.10

53.01

10.00

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000

年2月

2000

年8月

2001

年3月

2001

年9月

2002

年4月

2002

年10

月

2003

年5月

2003

年11

月

2004

年6月

2004

年12

月

2005

年7月

2006

年2月

2006

年8月

2007

年3月

2007

年9月

2008

年4月

2008

年10

月

2009

年5月

2009

年11

月

2010

年6月

2010

年12

月

2011

年7月

2012

年2月

2012

年8月

商品房销售、投资

房地产投资累计增速商品房销售累计增长率

3.99

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan

-00

Au

g-0

0

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

De

c-0

2

Jul-

03

Feb

-04

Sep

-04

Ap

r-0

5

No

v-0

5

Jun

-06

Jan

-07

Au

g-0

7

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

De

c-0

9

Jul-

10

Feb

-11

Sep

-11

汽车产量

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan.F

eb-0

6

Mar-

06

Apr-

06

May-

06

Jun-0

6

Jul-06

Aug-0

6

Sep-0

6

Oct-

06

Nov-

06

Dec-0

6

Jan.F

eb-0

7

Mar-

07

Apr-

07

May-

07

Jun-0

7

Jul-07

Aug-0

7

Sep-0

7

Oct-

07

Nov-

07

Dec-0

7

Jan.F

eb-0

8

Mar-

08

Apr-

08

May-

08

Jun-0

8

Jul-08

Aug-0

8

Sep-0

8

Oct-

08

Nov-

08

Dec-0

8

Jan.F

eb-0

9

Mar-

09

Apr-

09

May-

09

Jun-0

9

Jul-09

Aug-0

9

Sep-0

9

Oct-

09

Nov-

09

Dec-0

9

Jan.F

eb-1

0

Mar-

10

Apr-

10

May-

10

Jun-1

0

Jul-10

Aug-1

0

Sep-1

0

Oct-

10

Nov-

10

Dec-1

0

Jan.F

eb-1

1

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

May-

11

Jun-1

1

Jul-11

Aug-1

1

Industrial added value growth rate(YoY) 我国工业增加值同比增长

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00%

0 50000

100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

Jan-F

eb

Jan-J

un

Jan-O

ct

Jan-M

ar

Jan-J

ul

Jan-N

ov

Ja

n-A

pr

Jan-A

ug

Jan-D

ec

Jan-M

ay

Jan-S

ep

Jan-F

eb

Jan-J

un

Jan-O

ct

Jan-M

ar

Jan-J

ul

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

我国城镇固定资产投资额（月度累计）及增长

速度

Investment in Fixed Assets Growth(YoY)

The Growth of the Investment in Fixed Asset in Urban Areas

(Monthly Accumulated)

The Growth of the Real Estate Investment and Sale China Automobile Output in 2011 10,000

Investment growth Sale growth



Exports and Imports

From Jan. to Sep. 2011

Steel products exports: 37.15 mmt , up 9.45 % yoy;

Slab exports : 4737 mt , down 96.42 % yoy

Steel products imports: 11.96mmt , down 4.32% yoy;

Slab imports : 0.43 mmt , down 1.96 % yoy

80

180

280

380

480

580

680

40179

3月 5月 7月 9月 11月

40544

3月 5月 7月 9月

月度

万吨

进口

出口

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1/Ja

n/1

0

1/Fe

b/1

0

1/M

ar/1

0

1/A

pr/

10

1/M

ay/1

0

1/J

un

/10

1/Ju

l/10

1/A

ug/

10

1/Se

p/1

0

1/O

ct/1

0

1/N

ov/

10

1/D

ec/1

0

1/Ja

n/1

1

1/Fe

b/1

1

1/M

ar/1

1

1/A

pr/

11

1/M

ay/1

1

1/J

un

/11

1/Ju

l/11

1/A

ug/

11

1/Se

p/1

1

Global

Index North

Americ…

CRU国际钢价指数

China Steel Products Imports and Exports from Jan 2010-Sep 2011 mmt

Jan.

2010

Jan.

2011

Mar.

2010

May.

2010

July.

2010

Sep..

2010

Nov.

2010

0.8

1

2.8

Mar.

2011

May.

2011

July.

2011

Sep..

2011

3.8

4.8

5.8

6.8

International Steel Products Price Index

5



International Long Products Price Index International Flat Products Price Index

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Sep-

10

Oct-

10

Nov-

10

Dec-

10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

May-

11

Jun-

11

Jul-

11

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

flat products index

#REF!

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Sep-

10

Oct-

10

Nov-

10

Dec-

10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

May-

11

Jun-

11

Jul-

11

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

long products index

#REF!

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月

月度

万吨

2008年

2009年

2010年

2011年

2008-2011年钢材出口数量趋势

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月

2008年

2009年

2010年

2011年

Steel Products Imports from Jan.2008 to Sep. 2011 mmt

Steel Products Exports from Jan. 2008 to Sep. 2011 mmt

0.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.8

2.0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan. Jan.

Feb. Feb.

Mar. Apr. May June July Mar. Apr. May June July

Aug. Aug.

Sep. Sep.

Oct. Oct.

Nov. Nov.

Dec. Dec.



Breakdown of Steel Products Exports Q1-Q3 2011 mmt

Q1-Q3 2011

Q1- Q3 2010 yoy±%

Total 37.15 33.94 9.45

Flat 20.77 20.28 2.41

Coated 4.13 2.20 87.99

Galvanizied 3.79 2.85 32.79

Cold rolled 2.76 1.94 42.47

Plate 0.84 7.37 -88.57

Hot rolled 0.06 2.15 -97.38

Pipe and tube 6.63 5.39 23.06

Wire and rod 5.04 4.09 23.23

Section 1.83 1.64 11.56

For railway 0.42 0.33 26.38

Others 2.46 2.22 11.23

Breakdown of Steel Products Imports Q1-Q3 2011 mmt

Q1-Q3 2011

Q1-Q3 2010

yoy±%

Total 11.96 12.50 -4.32

Flat 10.14 10.60 -4.38

Plate 1.46 1.22 19.92

Galvanizied 2.17 2.68 -19.2

Cold rolled 2.71 2.93 -7.35

Wire and rod 0.89 0.85 4.70

Pipe and tube 0.40 0.35 12.65

Section 0.26 0.33 -22.19

For railway 0.06 0.14 -59.21

Others 0.22 0.22 -1.62

6



Q1-Q3

2011

Share on

Total %

Q1-Q3

2010 yoy±%

Total 37.15 100 33.94 9.45

Korea 7.97 21.5 6.73 18.46

India 1.85 5.0 2.92 -36.72

Vietnam 1.38 3.7 1.93 -28.25

Thailand 1.37 3.7 0.98 39.03

Belgium 1.35 3.6 0.60 127.16

USA 1.17 3.2 0.77 51.21

Q1-Q3

2011

Share on

Total %

Q1-Q3

2010 yoy±%

Total 11.96 100 12.50 -4.32

Japan 5.64 47.2 5.90 -4.41

Korea 3.11 26 3.10 0.13

Taiwan

province 1.57 13.2 1.71 -8.13

Germany 0.38 3.2 0.34 12.13

Sweden 0.15 1.2 0.11 31.25

Hazakhstan 0.06 1.1 0.08 -22.81

Breakdown of Steel Products Exports in Q3 2011 mmt

Breakdown of Steel Products Imports in Q3 2011 mmt



Conclusion and Outlook

During the 12th Five Year Plan period, China’s economy is still in a period of strategic opportunities.

The steel industry is also at a critical stage for transform it growth mode.

The international environment for the development of the steel industry in China will be more complex.

Expectation : by 2015, the crude steel consumption in China will be 750 million tons.

7



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chinese steel market development and outlook · chinese steel market development and outlook wu...

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