CJ CGV(079160) 2016/12/15

//

(2122-9180) mjkim@hi-ib.com

(2122-9212) dsoh@hi-ib.com

Buy(Maintain)

n 12

11

17% 12

. 12 7 NEW 7

178 . 12 21 CJ E&M

(, , )

. 17% 10~11

12 4

.

1

.

n 2017

2013 2015 CAGR 27% 2016

. 2016 11

3.2% .

1) , 2)

, 3) . 2017

.

n STRONG BUY, 115,000

CJ CGV (SAAD)

2Q16 53% .

2016

.

115,000 .

.

(6M) 115,000

(2016/12/14) 66,800

Stock Indicator

11

2,116

1,414

20.8%

(2015) 350

EPS(2016E) 1,345

BPS(2016E) 23,885

ROE(2016E) 6.1%

52 58,500~138,500

60 150,828

60 10.8

Price Trend

0.49

0.59

0.69

0.79

0.89

0.99

1.09

1.19

1.29

46.856.866.876.886.896.8

106.8116.8126.8136.8146.8

Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

CJ CGV

Price() Price Rel. To KOSPI

000'S

(2015/12/11~2016/12/13)

COMPANY BRIEF

HI Research 2

(16.04 )

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

(YoY)() (%)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 16.11

(YoY)() (%)

: , : CBOOO,

4

()

4Q16

4Q15

705

544

513

488

: 280

: CJ CGV,

2017

,

,

, 8

, 5

7 , 2

,

5 , :

2

, , :

, :

8

: CJ CGV,

COMPANY BRIEF

HI Research 3

CJ CGV

(: )

2015 2016E 2017E 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16E

896.8 902.1 936.5 204.0 202.1 276.9 213.7 204.1 201.8 288.4 207.8

593.5 596.1 621.9 134.4 133.3 189.9 136.0 136.0 134.1 197.7 128.3

153.8 156.1 159.1 35.6 33.2 50.0 35.0 36.7 34.5 51.7 33.2

93.3 97.9 96.4 19.9 21.6 24.6 27.1 20.2 22.4 26.7 28.6

56.1 52.0 59.2 14.1 14.1 12.4 15.6 11.3 10.8 12.3 17.7

464.9 487.6 507.2 107.0 100.0 146.5 111.4 108.6 104.9 156.5 117.6

71.6 58.5 70.3 20.1 6.8 37.8 6.8 10.0 3.3 38.8 6.4

76.8 52.6 60.1 20.5 12.4 41.7 2.1 10.3 11.3 26.7 4.3

57.7 41.8 45.7 15.5 8.7 31.7 1.7 9.3 8.7 20.4 3.3

(YoY %)

3.7 0.6 3.8 -3.0 12.3 4.0 2.8 0.1 -0.2 4.1 -2.8

2.1 0.4 4.3 -5.1 11.4 3.2 -0.3 1.2 0.6 4.1 -5.7

4.6 1.5 1.9 -1.2 12.7 7.4 -0.1 2.8 4.1 3.4 -5.2

15.5 4.9 -1.6 17.7 10.8 8.0 25.9 1.3 3.6 8.6 5.3

1.6 -7.3 13.8 -10.6 22.1 -4.8 4.3 -20.0 -23.4 -1.1 13.8

15.5 4.9 -1.6 0.7 12.3 5.2 5.1 1.5 4.9 6.8 5.6

1.6 -7.3 13.8 14.7 -6.3 -1.0 -19.2 -50.0 -51.7 2.5 -6.2

5.5 4.9 4.0 42.5 192.6 18.0 -49.5 -8.6 -36.1 100.8

0.2 -18.2 20.2 33.0 134.9 18.5 -39.8 -0.5 -35.7 92.4

(%)

51.8 54.0 54.2 52.5 49.5 52.9 52.1 53.2 52.0 54.3 56.6

8.0 6.5 7.5 9.8 3.4 13.7 3.2 4.9 1.6 13.4 3.1

8.6 5.8 6.4 10.0 6.1 15.1 1.0 5.1 5.6 9.2 2.1

6.4 4.6 4.9 7.6 4.3 11.5 0.8 4.6 4.3 7.1 1.6

: CJ CGV,

CJ CGV

(: )

2015 2016E 2017E 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16E

1,193.5 1,442.3 1,745.2 257.5 278.4 358.1 299.5 314.3 314.6 422.1 391.3

598.7 736.2 890.0 130.6 133.7 182.9 151.5 158.9 155.6 223.8 197.9

66.9 67.1 119.5 14.5 8.6 39.0 4.8 17.7 0.8 34.0 14.6

72.8 34.6 106.8 14.6 16.5 45.5 -3.9 18.1 8.7 3.3 4.6

52.2 22.0 77.9 9.0 12.0 34.3 -3.1 13.7 4.5 0.5 3.4

(YoY %)

14.8 20.8 21.0 4.3 23.5 16.3 15.6 22.0 13.0 17.9 30.6

1,081.0 23.0 20.9 156.5 152.6 276.0 197.2 21.7 16.4 22.4 30.6

51.0 0.3 78.1 -68.0 -81.1 -3.4 -89.7 22.4 -90.1 -12.9 202.7

-52.4 208.4 2,302.6 12,661.0 23.5 -47.5 -92.8

-2.7 -57.8 254.1 -81.3 -87.5 20.9 52.5 -62.6 -98.7

(%)

50.2 51.0 51.0 50.7 48.0 51.1 50.6 50.5 49.5 53.0 50.6

5.6 4.7 6.8 5.6 3.1 10.9 1.6 5.6 0.3 8.0 3.7

6.1 2.4 6.1 5.7 5.9 12.7 -1.3 5.7 2.8 0.8 1.2

4.4 1.5 4.5 3.5 4.3 9.6 -1.0 4.4 1.4 0.1 0.9

: CJ CGV,

COMPANY BRIEF

HI Research 4

CJ CGV

(: )

12MF () 45.7

Target PER (X) 16.9 PER

CGV x 771.7

, 4D / 12MF 10.5

Target PER () 20.0 PER

CGV, 4D / 210.0

17 () 120

8

OPM (%) 8

17 =xx 38.4 50%

Target PER () 38.0 PER

CGV x 1,459

2,441

() 21,161

() 115,000

() 66,800 12/14

(%) 72.1 :

COMPANY BRIEF

HI Research 5

CJ CGV Global Peers Valuation

CJ CGV

CINEMARK

HOLDINGS REGAL CINEPLEX

CHINA

FILM

SHANGH

AI FILM

WANDA

CINEMA

Buy

() 115,000

(, , 12/14) 66,800 39.3 21.3 38.4 3.5 5.5 8.6

Upside (%) 72.4

(, ) 1,411.5 4,571.2 3,341.2 2,441.0 6,535.0 2,055.4 10,072.6

(%)

1M 0.1 -2.6 -5.0 1.3 -18.1 -22.9 -14.1 -10.2

3M -18.0 3.2 0.6 4.4 -17.5 -1.3 -16.3 -4.5

6M -38.7 20.1 11.1 -1.1 n/a n/a -24.6 1.4

1Y -43.2 22.0 20.9 9.4 n/a n/a -42.2 2.5

YTD -47.0 21.2 17.8 9.3 n/a n/a -50.9 -0.6

(%p)

1M -5.0 -7.8 -10.2 -3.9 -23.3 -28.1 -19.3 -15.4

3M -25.4 -4.2 -6.8 -3.0 -24.8 -8.7 -23.7 -11.9

6M -49.2 9.7 0.7 -11.6 n/a n/a -35.0 -9.1

1Y -58.6 6.7 5.5 -6.0 n/a n/a -57.6 -12.9

YTD -60.5 7.7 4.2 -4.2 n/a n/a -64.4 -14.2

PER (X)

2015 51.3 17.0 22.5 28.0 n/a n/a 112.1 44.9

2016C 49.3 19.5 20.2 34.3 41.4 60.0 44.9 36.7

2017C 18.2 16.9 17.4 25.4 32.8 47.7 32.1 28.7

PBR (X)

2015 6.3 3.5 n/a 3.9 n/a n/a 15.5 7.6

2016C 2.8 3.7 n/a 4.2 4.9 6.5 6.4 5.2

2017C 2.5 3.2 n/a 4.1 4.3 5.8 5.6 4.6

ROE (%)

2015 12.9 19.6 n/a 18.0 20.0 28.1 19.6 21.0

2016C 6.1 20.0 -20.3 13.4 13.4 12.5 15.2 9.0

2017C 14.3 19.9 -26.6 16.4 14.2 12.9 18.4 9.2

(%)

2015 14.8 -2.1 -1.6 -1.7 31.4 19.6 34.7 13.4

2016C 20.8 11.4 6.5 2.5 33.5 44.8 102.3 33.5

2017C 21.0 7.2 3.8 8.0 23.2 29.1 32.6 17.3

(%)

2015 28.4 -12.6 -9.8 -12.0 19.5 14.2 35.8 5.8

2016C 0.3 28.0 7.0 n/a 122.0 51.1 93.5 60.3

2017C 78.1 11.4 13.0 n/a 27.9 31.4 38.9 24.5

(%)

2015 225.8 29.7 -33.0 -14.9 15.0 14.8 32.6 7.4

2016C -57.8 20.8 48.1 -0.4 96.9 33.5 71.8 45.1

2017C 253.9 17.2 19.5 40.7 26.5 26.8 40.8 28.6

(%)

2015 5.6 13.8 10.2 9.4 10.4 22.4 18.1 14.1

2016C 4.7 15.9 10.3 n/a 17.2 23.4 17.4 16.8

2017C 6.8 16.5 11.2 n/a 17.9 23.8 18.2 n/a

(%)

2015 4.4 7.3 3.5 6.2 8.4 23.2 15.8 10.7

2016C 2.0 7.9 4.9 6.0 12.4 21.4 13.4 11.0

2017C 4.5 8.7 5.7 7.8 12.7 21.0 14.2 11.7

: Bloomberg, : CJ CGV , Bloomberg Consensus

COMPANY BRIEF

HI Research 6

K-IFRS

(:) (:,%)

2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

355 426 529 657 1,194 1,442 1,745 1,945

139 149 189 207 (%) 14.8 20.8 21.0 11.4

31 56 101 183 595 706 855 972

137 165 175 194 599 736 890 972

14 16 20 22 532 669 770 831

1,062 1,087 1,072 1,043 - - - -

676 697 676 639 - - - -

115 108 105 103 - - - -

1,418 1,513 1,601 1,701 67 67 120 141

447 464 486 500 (%) 28.4 0.3 78.1 18.1

84 102 123 137 (%) 5.6 4.7 6.8 7.3

67 67 67 67 - - - -

59 59 59 59 - - - -

526 526 526 526 () 8 8 8 8

249 249 249 249 -1 -23 -16 -11

204 204 204 204 73 35 107 133

972 990 1,011 1,025 21 13 29 36

421 505 571 656 (%) 6.1 2.4 6.1 6.9

11 11 11 11 52 22 78 97

90 90 90 90 (%) 4.4 1.5 4.5 5.0

328 349 419 508 52 28 77 96

-8 60 60 60 -4 -4 -4 -4

24 18 18 19 48 18 74 93

445 523 589 675 48 18 73 92

(:)

2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

152 148 202 209 ()

52 22 78 97 EPS 2,455 1,345 3,646 4,556

78 94 97 92 BPS 19,899 23,885 26,984 30,991

31 31 25 22 CFPS 7,600 7,265 9,407 9,973

() 8 8 8 8 DPS 350 350 350 350

-227 -182 -159 -175 Valuation()

() -192 -115 -75 -55 PER 51.3 49.7 18.3 14.7

() -14 -25 -22 -21 PBR 6.3 2.8 2.5 2.2

-14 -25 -45 -82 PCR 16.6 9.2 7.1 6.7

107 58 -9 -9 EV/EBITDA 17.5 9.3 7.1 6.3

- - - - Key Financial Ratio(%)

44 - - - ROE 12.9 6.1 14.3 15.7

- 68 - - EBITDA 14.7 13.3 13.8 13.2

-7 -7 -7 -7 218.4 189.2 171.6 151.9

31 10 39 19 91.8 71.4 49.0 27.9

109 139 149 189 (x) 8.7 9.6 10.3 10.5

139 149 189 207 (x) 96.9 96.1 96.2 92.6

: CJ CGV,

COMPANY BRIEF

HI Research 7

42,000

92,000

142,000

192,000

14/12 15/03 15/06 15/09 15/12 16/03 16/06 16/09 16/12

() ()

2016-12-15 2016-05-10()

Buy

Buy

115,000

165,000

2015-10-13() Buy 165,000

Compliance notice

,

1% .

.

3 E-mail .

6 .

, .

( : , )

, ,

, , .

.

1. ( 3) 6 .(2014 5 12

)

- Buy( ): +15% - Hold(): -15% ~ 15% - Sell(): -15%

2. ( )

- Overweight(), - Neutral (), - Underweight ()

2016-09-30

()

(%) 88.4 % 11.6 % -