climate change and water: impacts & management needs 气候变化与水资源：...
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Climate Change and Water:Impacts & Management Needs
气候变化与水资源：影响与管理需求
Roger Calow
Water Policy Programme, ODI罗杰
Overview概述
1. The big picture概括1. Irrigation – surface water
systems灌溉—地表水系统3.Irrigation - groundwater
economies灌溉—地下水节约4. Conclusions总结
The most vulnerable?最脆弱群体？
Drivers of change & management challenges
变化动因 & 管理挑战Major drivers?
主要动因？…urbanisation, industrialisation, consumption...with climate
change overlay
A water ‘crisis’? 水危机？…who gets what (Q, Q, R) in a variable climate: farms vs
cities, upstream vs downstream, environmental vs human
Adaptation challenge? 适应挑战？…mediating between competing claims: range of different
scales
Agricultural futures? 农业未来？...agriculture will lose water. How? Impacts on poorer
households?
Agriculture & irrigation农业 & 灌溉
Two stories: • Surface water irrigation (IDs)
– Development - state sponsored, driven– Management - increasingly commercial
• Groundwater irrigation– More recent, increasingly farmer-led &
opportunistic– Boreholes 1949 (0) – today
(>5M)...concentrated in water scarce north– Controllability, affordability...impacts
Water withdrawals in Hebei by sector, 1990 – 2003
河北省分部门采水量
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Surfacewater
Groundwater
Surfacewater
Groundwater
Surfacewater
Groundwater
Surfacewater
Groundwater
1990 1995 2000 2003
Wat
er w
ith
dra
wal
(m
cm)
Other
Agricultural
Municipal
Industry
Source: Hebei provincial WRD Statistical Yearbooks
Yellow River flows 1956-2000黄河水流量
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Volu
me
(108m
3)
Year
Prov. QH SC GS NX IM SA SA HN SD HB Tot
Alloc. 1.4 0.1 3.0 4.0 5.9 3.8 4.3 5.5 7.0 2.0 37
Yellow River Allocation Plan （ billion m3 ）
Water allocation in the Yellow River Basin 黄河流域水资源配给
Permit 1 Hangjin ID: 0.41 bcm
Permits 2&3 Hetao ID: 4.77 bcm
Defined under the YRCC’s Water Allocation Plan (long term) and adjusted under Annual
Regulation Plans (annual)
Defining and protecting farmers’ rights?
Irrigation diversion 灌溉
Water allocation – basin to household
水资源分配—从流域到用户
Basin Allocation
Agreeme
nt
Province
QH SC GS NX IM SAA SA HN SD HB Total
Alloc. 14.1 0.4 30.4 40.0 58.6 38.0 43.1 55.4 70.0 20.0 370
Hangjin Irrigation District
280GL （ abstraction)
Hangjin Irrigation District
280GL （ abstraction)
Hetao Irrigation District
Hetao Irrigation District
Abstraction
permits
Water User AssociationsWater User Associations
Water User AssociationsWater User Associations
Channel Losses
Channel Losses
Other usersOther users
Group water
entitlements
Water certificate
s
HouseholdHousehold HouseholdHousehold
Hangjin - channel lining夯井—分渠灌溉
Channel lining and water transfer: winners…and losers?
分渠灌溉与水资源转移：赢家与输家？
Mugan Balahai Jianshe
Gross permit before trading410 mcm
Return flow before trading35 mcm
Saving after trading130 mcm
Return flow after trading35 mcm
Gross diversion after trading280 mcm
Water Permit of 5860 mcm
Water diverted before trading 375 mcm
Water diverted after trading245 mcm
Key messages – IDs & water transfers关键点— IDs 与水资源配给
1. Irrigation will lose market share
2. Supply will fluctuate...variability will increase
3. Deepening rights reform (basin to farmer) will grow in importance
4. Protecting the interests of poorer households as water is reallocated will depend on:
– Informal claims (WUAs, contracting)– Sound science – basin efficiencies, consumptive rights– Willingness to recognise effects on ‘3rd parties’ &
environmental flows
‘Water & Agricultural Management in Hebei’河北省水资源与农业管理
Total water withdrawals in Bashang counties, 1995 – 2005坝上县水资源抽取总量
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Surface
water
Ground
water
Surface
water
Ground
water
Surface
water
Ground
water
1995 2000 2005
Year
Wit
hd
raw
al (
m3
x
103
)
Zhangbei
Guyuan
Shangyi
Kangbao
Source: personal communication, Zhangjiakou City Water Affairs Bureau 2005.
Groundwater level changes recorded for three Bashang counties, 2003 – 2005
地下水水位变化记录
Source: Zhangjiakou City Water Affairs Bureau, 2006.
Predicted groundwater level declines in the Bashang
可预测地下水位下降情况
Source: WAMH 2004. Note: drawdown modelled over a 10 year period based on 2003 estimates of groundwater abstraction and recharge.
Irrigation development and control areas in the Bashang
Control areas - well drilling in the Bashang
控制区—井水抽取
Groundwater management challenge地下水管理挑战
Country Annual groundwater use (km3)
No. of groundwater structures (million)
Extraction/ structure (m3/year)
% of population dependent on groundwater
India 185-200 20 9,000-10,000 55-60
Pakistan 45 0.5 90,000 60-65
China 75 3.5 21,500 22-25
Iran 29 0.5 58,000 12-18
Mexico 29 0.07 414,285 5-6
USA 110 0.2 555,000 <1-2
Source: Shah, 2004
WUAs & quotas
In the long-term: 长期 Scale-up to reduce free-riding
Tie quotas to variable shares of aquifer safe yield
Progress: 进展Shared allocationsConservation incentivesDevolved management
A farm economy? 农业经济？
Shifting livelihoods生活水平变化
• Rural jobs – RNFE, migration• Rural incomes – diverse, dispersed• Dependence on CPRs - declining• Drivers of change – small push, big pull• Sources of vulnerability – income shocks• Nature of community – boundaries blurring• Rural development narrative – income,
employment
Vulnerable are locked in to the ‘old’ economy
Key messages – protecting high value aquifers & services
主要信息—保护高价值地下蓄水层 & 服务• Groundwater access – key role in poverty
reduction• But monitoring patchy, numbers uncertain, impacts
of climate change unclear • Protecting the interests of poorer households will
depend on:– Extending access to GW irrigation– Prioritising domestic water– Protecting key reserves– A different approach to management…devolving tasks
and functions…supported by sound science
Adaptation & development适应与发展
Conclusions结论
• Adaptation as development 发展型适应
• Climate as one pressure… 气候压力
• Agriculture as a water bank 农业 = 水资源银行
• Rural households as winners & losers…who are the losers?
• 谁才是赢家与输家？
Thank you
谢谢Beijing, February 2010
www.odi.org.uk\wpp