Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan

Dr. Arshad M. Khan

Technical Advisory Panel on Climate ChangeIslamabad, 15 February 2008

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Rate of Change (oC per decade)

1850 – 2005 ───────────── 0.045

1905 – 2005 ───────────── 0.074

1955 – 2005 ───────────── 0.128

1980 – 2005 ───────────── 0.177

Warmest 12 years:2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999

Average Global Temperature OC1999 ───────────── 14.38

2000 1995

──────────────────────────

14.4014.48

. . . 1998 20072005

───────────────────────────────────────

14.5714.6014.63

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• 0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the last century;

• Further increase by 1.8 – 4.0 0 C projected over the 21st Century;

• Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world regions;

• Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably;

• Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic;

• Substantial rise in sea level.

Some Major Findings of IPCC Some Major Findings of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007

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Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan

Increased variability of Monsoon;

Increased risks of floods and droughts;

Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid region;

Food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity;

060212/0018

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Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan (Contd.)

More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers;

Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline;

Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish;

060212/0020

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Economy largely based on agriculture, which is climate sensitive;

Flows in IRS threatened by melting of Himalayan glaciers;

Low technological and scientific base and limited access to knowledge;

Weak institutional mechanism and low financial resources to undertake appropriate adaptation measures.

Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change

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Research Needs of Pakistan Proper understanding of the past trends of:

i. Region-wise Climate Changeii. Changes in flow patterns of IRS iii. Changes in frequency and intensity of extreme eventsiv. Recession of Karakoram Glaciersv. Degradation of the Indus delta region

Fine resolution projections of climate change in Pakistan in line with global trends

Scientific assessment of likely future impacts of climate change on country’s key sectors, in particular Water and Agriculture

Identification of appropriate adaptation measures to cope with adverse impacts

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Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview

1992: IUCN/Env. & Urban Aff. Div., GoP report: “The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy”,

1994: ADB report: “Climate Change in Asia – Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues;

1998: ADB report: “Asia Least Cost Abatement Strategy(ALGAS)”

1998: MoEnv., GoP and UNEP report: “Climate Change and Impact Assessment & Adaptation Strategy for Pakistan”;

Mid-1990s onwards: Various studies coordinated by Dr. Amir Muhammed

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Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview (contd.)

2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) established;

2003: Pakistan’s First National Communication to UNFCCC by MoEnv., GoP;

2004: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat;

2005: PARC/ UNEP/ ICIMOD/ APN/ START report on Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes in Pakistan Himalayas;

2007: Briefing of National Planners and Policymakers on Climate Change research results by GCISC.

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GCISC Activities at a Glance

Agricultural Data

Identification of adaptation

measures in agriculture sector

Identification of adaptation

measures in water sector

Dissemination of Project

Outcomes

Water Simulation

Models

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources

Water Resources

Data

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on

Agriculture

Regional Climate Models

Crop Simulation

Models

Climate Change Scenario

Development

Climate Data

Capacity Building/ Research Analysis of Enhancement and Dissemination Historical Data

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Anthropogenic Influences

Internal driving forces

External drivingforces

Global ClimateScenarios

Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

Regional C

limate

Scenarios

Effects on Crop Yields

Crop-growth Simulation ModelsMesoscale Climate

Models (MMs)Watershed Models

Effect onRiver inflows

Impact Studies

Information at 300 km x 300 km level

Information at 30 km x 30 km

level

Information at Sub-km level

Adaptation Measures

Adaptation Measures

Health Energy Biodiversity

Area of GCISC Activities at Present

Future Activities

Agriculture

Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

Super ComputerLand use &

Topographic data etc.

GCISC Approachfor CC Research

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Simulation Models Currently in Use at GCISC

Regional Climate Models :• RegCM3 (AS-ICTP, Italy) • PRECIS (Hadley Centre, UK)• WRF (NCAR, USA)

Watershed Models :• DHSVM (Univ. of Washington, USA)• UBC (Univ. of British Columbia, Canada)• HEC-HMS (US Army Corps of Engineers)

Crop Simulation Models :DSSAT: Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (Univ. of Georgia, Griffin, USA) comprising several families of models:

• CERES (for cereals)• CROPGRO (for grain legumes)• CROPSIM (for root crops)• Other Crops (for Tomato, Sunflower, Sugarcane, Pasture)

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Salient Research Results Obtained by GCISC

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Climate Change Projectionsa) Coarse resolution (~300 km x 300 km)

projections using Outputs of 17 GCMs for A2 and A1B scenarios

b) Fine resolution (~50 km x 50 km) projections by dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs for A2 scenario using RCMs: RegCM3 and PRECIS

Base period: 1961 – 1990

Futures: 2020s = 2010 – 2039

2050s = 2040 – 2069

2080s = 2070 – 2099

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Pakistan and its Northern & Southern Parts

a) Pakistanb) Northern Pakistanb) Southern Pakistan

(a) (b) (c)

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Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan

For A2 Scenario, based on Ensemble of 13 GCMs (Global ∆T = 4.0 °C in 2100)

For A1B Scenario, based on Ensemble of 17 GCMs

(Global ∆T = 2.8 °C in 2100)

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Pakistan Northern Pakistan

Southern Pakistan

Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18

Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26

Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18

Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C) by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario

• Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan

• Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer

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Projected Temperature Change (°C) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario)

Projected Precipitation Change (%) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario)

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Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan

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Agro-climatic zones used by GCISC for Climate Change Impact Studies on Agriculture

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Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern parts of Pakistan

Temperature˚C(increase over baseline)

Growing Season Length (Days)Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan

MountainousRegion(Humid)

Sub-MountainousRegion

(Sub-humid)

Plains(Semi-arid)

Plains(Arid)

Baseline 246 161 146 1371 232 155 140 1322 221 149 135 1273 211 144 130 1234 202 138 125 1185 194 133 121 113

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2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 1 2 3 4 5Temperature Change (oC)

Whe

at Y

ield

(kg/

ha)

NorthernMountainous(Humid)

Northern Sub-Mountainous(Sub-humid)

Southern Plains(Semi arid)

Southern Plains(Arid)

Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors

remaining constant)

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Effect of increase in CO2 concentration on wheat yield (other factors remaining

constant)

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

350 525 700 875 1050

CO2 Concentration (ppm)

Whe

at Y

ield

(kg/

ha)

Southern Semi-arid Plains

Southern AridPlains

Northern Sub-mountainousregion

NorthernMountainousRegion

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Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Base 2020 2050 2080

Whe

at Y

ield

(kg/

ha)

Northern Mountainous Region Northern Sub mountainous

Southern Semi-arid Plains Southern Arid Plains

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Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios

Region% Share in National Production

Baseline Yield (kg ha-1)

% Change in yield in 2085A2

ScenarioB2

Scenario

Northern Mountainous 2 2658 +50 +40

Northern Sub-mountainous 9 3933 -11 -11

Southern Semi arid Plains

42 4306 -8 -8

Southern Arid Plains

47 4490 -5 -6

Pakistan 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4

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Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios

Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

1990 2025 2055 2085

Year

Ric

e y

ield

(kg

/ha)

A2 Scenarios

B2 Scenario

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Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources of Pakistan

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UPPER INDUS BASIN at Bisham Qila

R2 Eff. % Vol. Diff. Calibration (1999-2004) 0.87 0.86 0.32 Validation (1995-1999) 0.87 0.87 -5.16

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10/1

/200

0

11/1

/200

0

12/1

/200

0

1/1/

2001

2/1/

2001

3/1/

2001

4/1/

2001

5/1/

2001

6/1/

2001

7/1/

2001

8/1/

2001

9/1/

2001

Date of run (mm/dd/yyyy)

Disc

harg

e (c

umec

s)

Observrd flow

Simulated flow

Snow melt runoff

Glacial contribution

Met Stations: ziarat (3669), yasin (3150)

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Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Dis

char

ge (C

umec

s)

Base Runoff CCS Runoff

Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt

Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows

Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS): Temp: +3°C, Glacier Area: - 50%

Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15%2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed

Study of HKH Glaciers by GCISC GCISC has recently agreed to join hands with the

GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements From Space) project of Southwest Asia Regional Centre, University at Nebraska Omaha, USA to delineate the boundaries of various HKH glaciers using satellite imageries.

An MoU has been signed.

GCISC plan to use the above experience to study expansion/shrinkage behavior of major UIB glaciers, using time series satellite data.

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Major Collaborating National Organizations

1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD

2. Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA

3. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC

4. Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech., IGIS/NUST

5. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF

6. University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR

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Major Collaborating International Partners

• APN Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan;

• ASICTP Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy;

• IIASA Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;

• GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Univ. of Nebraska, USA;

• GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food System, UK.

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