climate change vulnerability and health: understanding local community vulnerability to aid...

Climate Change Vulnerability and Health: understanding local community

vulnerability to aid adaptation planning气候变化脆弱性与健康 : 了解地区共同体的

脆弱性以完善适应性规划

Professor Scott Baum Scott Baum 教授Principle Research Fellow 城市规划项目中的核心课题Urban Research Program

Outline of talk讲座要点

The importance of local approaches 局部方法的重要性 Developing indicators of local

community vulnerability 地区共同体脆弱性的发展指标

Spatial/ socio-economic indices and GIS approaches

空间 / 社会经济指标和地理信息系统方法 Local community indicators and

adaptation planning 地区共同体与适应性计划

The importance of local approaches局部方法的重要性

When dealing with issues such as human health or urban planning and management we must understand adaptation issues from a local level perspective

当处理诸如人类健康 , 城市规划和管理等问题时 , 我们应该从局部的视角来理解适应性的问题

Vulnerability

continuum


When dealing with issues such as human health or urban planning and management we must understand adaptation issues from a local level perspective

当处理诸如人类健康 , 城市规划和管理等问题时 ,我们应该从局部的视角来理解适应性的问题

This calls for a local or community level approach to measuring vulnerability and developing and understanding adaptation issues

这就要求从局部和共同体出发来衡量脆弱性 , 发展 , 同时更好地理解适应性的问题 .

Vulnerability

continuum

Integrated assessment approach综合评价法

Initial and ongoing stakeholder engagement

最初的和持续的利益相关者的参与

Regional/ aggregate vulnerability assessment

区域 / 总脆弱性评估

Local spatial vulnerability assessment

局部空间脆弱性评估

Locally focused stakeholder scenario workshops:VulnerabilitiesRisksOpportunities 当地为重点的利益相关者的情况讲习班：漏洞风险机会

Adaptation plans and approaches

适应性计划和方法

Multiple methods and approaches

多种方法和途径

Local spatial vulnerability assessment局部空间脆弱性评估

Hazards of place or place vulnerability approach 场所的危害或者说场所脆弱性的方法

Interplay between bio-physical geography and social geography

生物物理地理和社会地理的相互影响 Several alternative methods 一些替代的方法

Index development 发展指标 Using GIS to create data layers 利用地理信息系统创建数据层

Outcomes are the same → indicators of vulnerability hot spots 结果是相同的→脆弱性的热点指标

– Hot spot analysis used in several stages of the vulnerability assessment and development of adaptation issues

– 热点分析用于脆弱性评估和适应性问题发展的不同阶段


Exposure

风险Sensitivity

敏感度

Potential impact

潜在影响

Adaptive capacity

适应能力

Vulnerability

脆弱性


Exposure

风险Sensitivity

敏感度

Potential impact

潜在影响Adaptive capacity

适应能力

Vulnerability

脆弱性

The exposure of a system of interest to stimuli that act on that system

利益系统的风险在于刺激其作用于该系统

The responsiveness of a system to climate hazards

系统对于气候灾害的反应

The ability of a system to change in a way that makes it better able to cope with potential impact

一个系统自我改善以更好适应潜在影响的能力

Need to operationalise measures with reference to wider information/stakeholders

参考更广的信息和参与者，需要 operationalise的措施 Quite often stakeholders have important

information that can be beneficial to the development of the indicators

很多时候，参与者能够提供许多有利于指标开发的重要信息

Future versus current 将来与当前


Data issues/availability are an important consideration

数据的可得到性需要重点考虑 Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity all need

to be measured at the ‘local level’ 曝光度 , 敏感度以及适应能力都必须在当地水平下进

行衡量 The diversity of data sources, formats, and spatial

scales can require reconciliation to a common spatial reference before data can be integrated

在数据整合之前，需要对数据来源、形式以及空间尺度的多样化进行协调，以形成一个共同的空间参照


Index building approach指标建立方法

Small scale spatial Index accounting for degrees of relative vulnerability

衡量脆弱性的小规模地区指标

Exposure a necessary but not sufficient condition driving vulnerability

在必要但不充分的条件下衡量的脆弱性

The sum of the social factors

社会因素之和

Index building approach

Map layers approach图形演示

Uses Geographic Information Systems to build up layers of interest

应用地理图形信息系统建立重要信息层

Map layers approach图表演示

Local community indicators and adaptation planning

局部地区指标及适应性规划 Use local vulnerability

maps to: 应用本地区脆弱性示意图 :

Drill down to areas of ‘interest’

深入研究重点区域 Identify case study

localities 区别研究不同地区个案 Develop broader at risk

community profiles 更广泛的发展风险共同

体 Develop local

scenarios 建立地区性方案

The vulnerability map can also become another information layer:

本地区脆弱性示意图所支持的其他信息层 : On-line decision

support systems 即时决策支持系统

Part of the on-going disaster management risk assessment program and updated as needed 灾难即时处理系统及

其更新的必要部分


局部地区指标及适应性规划

Stakeholder workshops 相关工厂 Designed to identify risks, vulnerabilities and

opportunities 为明确风险、脆弱性以及机会而设计 Indicators of local vulnerability assessment

become an integral tool of adaptation planning workshops

地区脆弱性评估指标是制定完整的适应性计划的有力工具


局部地区指标及适应性规划

End of Talk 结束

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