Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on Agriculture in

Asian Monsoon region (CAAM)

Masaru MizoguchiDepartment of Global Agricultural Science

The University of Tokyo

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CIGR-Ageng2012Valencia, Spain

10 July 2012

-Introduction- GRENE• Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE)

– has started from 2011– under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,

Science and Technology (MEXT)– Based on “the new growth strategy” which was

approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010• Objectives of the program

– the domestic leading universities work together to share research resources and research goals

– Environmental Information is selected as one of them2

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What is CAAM?

• One project in the environmental information under the research framework of the GRENE– One of 6 selected-projects– Biodiversity, Climate, Land, Water, Agriculture, Health

• Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region– supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture,

Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) from 2011 to 2015

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Background of the CAAM project• Asian monsoon region

– Large population (more than 60 % in the world)– Many agricultural countries– Rapid development– Rapid change in land use

• Need for adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture– against the predicted climatic changes– Control of GHG from agricultural fields

• Problem– Lack of agro-meteorological and climatological data-bases

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Project aims of CAAM

• To improve the reliability of future climate prediction

• To develop the information platform

– will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon region

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Research targets• Development of agro-meteorological and

climatological data-bases • Evaluation of land surface conditions on climate • Elucidation of the effects of climatic changes on

major crops • Development of the information platform to

design adaptation and mitigation strategies of major crops against the predicted climatic changes– in Asian monsoon region

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Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region (CAAM)Leader: Masaru Mizoguchi (The University of Tokyo)

Aims1. To improve the reliability of future climate prediction , 2. To develop the information platform

which will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon region

Climate change research Development of Agro-climatological Data-base in the Developing Countries

Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover (LULC) Changes on the Asian Monsoon Climate - Land-Atmosphere Interaction Study -

1. Development of basic environmental information and its application to decision-making in the Asian monsoon region2. Training of young researchers to lead the study of global warming mitigation measures and adaptation research and climate change3. Construction of information infrastructure for the realization of global warming adaptation and mitigation measures for agricultural sectors

Assessment System Using Meteorological Data and Crop Models

Validation of evaluation system by field survey

Agricultural effect research Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture Based on a Field Survey

Development of Information Platform to Design Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies of Major Crops against the Predicted Climatic Changes

heat balance model

DIAS

Estimation of the element of Agricultural Meteorology

Digitization of old observational data recorded in paper format

Agro-meteorological data base Near real-time meteorological data acquisition system

/Use of climate-model output on the DIAS and a detailed land surface data

/Elucidation of the importance of land surface atmosphere interaction Including the impact of anthropogenic Asian monsoon region

/Construction of the system for crop simulation under various conditions

/Evaluation of the impact of climate change on crop production

/Survey of cropping/Comparison of simulation and real planting/Cultivation based on the simulation test

/Collection and maintenance of information related to land use and land management, soil and Agricultural Meteorology/Collection of basic data on greenhouse gas balance in agricultural land

Benefits

1) Development of Agro-climatological Data-base in the Developing Countries in Asian Monsoon Region (Climate Change Research Team 1: CCR-1) (JAMSTEC)

2011-

2012

Collection and digitization of agro-meteorological and climate data

2012-

2013

Completion and opening of the agro-climate database

2014-

2015

CCR2

Scenario data of agro-climatic conditions from AER1, 2

2013-

2014

Overseas collaboratinginstitutes

2012-

2013

In-situ observation (Vietnam, Philippines)

DIAS

　 Routine obs.duration of sunshine, temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall

Estimated valuessolar radiation

longwave radiationpotential

evapotranspirationclimatic wetness

Comparisons

Calculation

Formulae

Special obs.solar radiationlongwave radiation

Development of station-based and gridded database

Improvement of surface water and energy budget model and calculation of agro-meteorological elements

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2) Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover (LULC) Changes on the Asian Monsoon Climate - Land-Atmosphere Interaction Study - (Climate Change Research Team 2: CCR-2) (Tokyo Metropolitan University)

2011-

2012

Long-term changes in rainfall (inter-comparison of several rainfall datasets)

Boundary condition datasets for climate simulation (soil moisture etc.)

2012-

2013

Impact of LULC changes on Asian monsoon climate using regional climate model

2014-

2015

Meteorological data from

AER2,3

2013-

2014

Inter-comparison of CMIP3/5 in terms of Land-Atmospheric interaction.

Long-term changes in Rainfall over 40 years in May

＋

ー

DIAS

Meteorological data from CCR1

＋

ー

Takahashi et al. (2010)

Takahashi (2011)

Rainfall Change due to land use change

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Presets for joint research(Thailand, Indonesia)

3) Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region Based on a Field Survey -Validation of evaluation system by field survey - (Agricultural Effect Research Team 1: AER-1) (Univ. of Tokyo)

Cropping survey and understand their characteristics

Examination of potential cultivation by crop models　　

　　Possible cultivation test for

suitable crop system

2011

2012 -

2013

2013-

2014

Development of infrastructure for Web applications use

2015

Spinach fieldrice cassava spinach

CCR-1

AER-2

Rain-fed rice field

Cassava field

Simulator for Cultivation Possibility of Rice

AER-3

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Rice cultivation possibility prediction tool

Collecting crop models & params.（ for Asian Monsoon Region ）

4) Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region Based on a Field Survey - Construction of an Assessment System Using Meteorological Data and Crop Models - (Agricultural Effect Research Team 2: AER-2) (NARO)

Rice Cultivar A

Spinach Cassava ・・・

・・・

Implementing cultivation simulators with flexibility which can exchange a crop model

Simulator execution　　　　　　↓Climate change evaluation

Results of Climate Change Research Meteorological Data +Climate Change Coef.

• Clop models• Web applications• Framework for

developing applications

Existing Results2011-

2012

2012

2013-

2014

Improvement of the framework

VerificationCorrection

Implementing web applications　→ Deploying to DIAS

2015Improvement of simulators

Rain Fed Rice Field

Rice Cultivar B

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5) Development of Information Platform to Design Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies of Major Crops against the Predicted Climatic Changes in Asian Monsoon Region(Agricultural Effect Research Team 3: AER-3) (NIAES)

2011 -2014

Collecting data of meteorology, soil, land cover and agriculture

Evaluation of soil temperature and moisture of cropland

2012 -2014

Development of information platform for adaptation and mitigation strategies

2015

2014

2011 -2014

Compilation of agro-climate change scenarios

Measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from cropland

CCR-1

AER-1, 2

Rice field

Foreign Institutes for joint research

Database for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies

CCR-2

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Radiation data in Philippines

2011 Installation of weather station

in Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines

International kick-off meeting

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The First International Workshop of Climatic Changes and Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region

Date: March 3-5, 2012 Venue: Asia Hotel

296 Phayathai Road, in front of Ratchathewi Skytrain Station, Bangkok 10400, Thailand

Local tour in the International Workshop

16Rachaburi, Thailand, March 05, 2012

Conclusions• The CAAM project has just started under the

GRENE program in Japan• Development of Agro-meteorological

information platform on climate changes– will be useful for the various decision-making in

agriculture• Education of young researchers

– will lead the study of global warming mitigation measures and adaptation research in Asian monsoon countries

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More information about the CAAM project

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Gracias! Thank you

ありがとうございました (Japan) ขอบคุ�ณคุ�ณ (Thailand)

Terima kasih (Indonesia)salamat sa inyo (Philippines)

Cảm ơn bạn (Vietnam)谢谢 (China)

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