cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - national bureau of economic research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020...

52
12 !ACU O C aonLcc bn&Thsbjm mBA pc dnotcg mijporg cxbjicr bcuma2xou btoArqcg WBI wn ctcqt © UOIJCC © JÔÔ1 PA VJ" if ICLnCCL VII UJJ12 LC2CLAGCf 2JJOLf 2CCjIOU2 OJ jCX4 UOf tO cxcccg MO {P02G 0J 4JJC £lflflJOL Bug uot iJJO2C O4 fP J4Bt!0uB1 Drac&fI 0J pcouomrc JC2C&LCJT 12 butt ot. J4REJc.2 LCCSLC bLoLmn2 !U CPWILGU Bug p&po WCflC2• yIJA obJuJou2 cxbtcaacg anbbo mm bLonqcq pA WG J4t!01mI IIJiW{C opijqpooq J-JC&JqJ Bug DcAclobmcuc jpia bsbct hwacibuta Bf NJIa kIBEJC bWJCCtOI? BuqcLpqc 9IJq tP ocic4 Off BJ)OL ECouOm!ta E!UBuC!&I counnia ncw bintrqcq pA waacu B''F ctcmA E!" 1owE0ICL GJI!& KC) Bug aCUJUISI C g&w Bug jC221CB Bug V" 2B!CL L°' bLotigiu on2uugJu tcac&tcp s2212wucc HcIbwI w wi wrgA wAuc SBPB4 Dd81&AIJG WIIiOU LOL BU2ThCUU 2CACLflI dncajou LcIqu I P'U HOICU B91U &ug buucthj giLccrOL ouLo1cct aLvJC IPL bLoA1grn mc rp w q& cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ J VIBu if }(Lf1CCL EDflCVJJOI4 BKODflCIIOJ4 EflI4CIIQV2 EXbEMNEIL4IVF EELW'WIEa OL MBEK /AOJ1G14G bYBEK 2E11E2

Upload: others

Post on 17-Jul-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

12 !ACU O C aonLccbn&Thsbjm mBA pc dnotcg mijporg cxbjicr bcuma2xou btoArqcg WBI wn ctcqt © UOIJCC© JÔÔ1 PA VJ" if ICLnCCL VII UJJ12 LC2CLAGCf 2JJOLf 2CCjIOU2 OJ jCX4 UOf tO cxcccg MO

{P02G 0J 4JJC £lflflJOL Bug uot iJJO2C O4 fP J4Bt!0uB1 Drac&fI 0J pcouomrc JC2C&LCJT

12 butt ot. J4REJc.2 LCCSLC bLoLmn2 !U CPWILGU Bug p&po WCflC2• yIJA obJuJou2 cxbtcaacganbbo mm bLonqcq pA WG J4t!01mI IIJiW{C opijqpooq J-JC&JqJ Bug DcAclobmcuc jpia bsbcthwacibuta Bf NJIa kIBEJC bWJCCtOI? BuqcLpqc 9IJq tP ocic4 Off BJ)OL ECouOm!ta E!UBuC!&Icounnia ncw bintrqcq pA waacu B''F ctcmA E!" 1owE0ICL GJI!& KC) Bug aCUJUISIC g&w Bug jC221CB Bug V" 2B!CL L°' bLotigiu on2uugJu tcac&tcp s2212wucc HcIbwI

w wi wrgA wAuc SBPB4 Dd81&AIJG WIIiOU LOL BU2ThCUU 2CACLflI dncajou LcIquI P'U HOICU B91U &ug buucthj giLccrOL ouLo1cct aLvJC IPL bLoA1grnmc rp w q&

cmpqgc viv1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C

J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl

fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ J

VIBu if }(Lf1CCL

EDflCVJJOI4 BKODflCIIOJ4 EflI4CIIQV2EXbEMNEIL4IVF EELW'WIEa OL

MBEK /AOJ�1G14G bYBEK 2E1�1E2

Page 2: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

nOits3ubH 'to astzmita3 lstnsmrioqxd anoit3niR noitouboiq

issut)I 11 nzlA I Oô .oM isqs gnbftoW SHHM

VQQl ,nut 1&t lI .aoM dat

asibut8 iodsd bns nsibliilD

TDA$ITHA

ssaasnnsT OOôj I risklw ni tnsmiisqxs as 5JAT8 tssoi mon £121) asstthns iaqsq airlT

aninnisd asaaElslo asq'1 soidtlo ono ot bsniaas 'lrnobnrn siaw noilosot bns atnobuta notxsgxsbnbl

bits (atnsbuta ?.V-) asaaslo ssia-16Iugsi (atnsbuta Vt-El) asaaslo llsma :iss' loorloa à8-8Ql Silt ill

nismsi ot siow atnobuta niasb thniFio silt ot nibioooA .51)15 aisifosst s citiw asaas!o ssia-islugoi

ssia-islugsi iii atnobuta jovowoil o3it3rnq itT .obrn bñrlt silt rlauoirlt oqt aas!o multi iiorlt iii

atnobuta b tnsoisq 01 tuods bus notmisbnbl 'to bns silt 12 bsniaas-s1 '(lmobnzl siow asaaslo

1610V58 .nornmoo oath asw noithttA .ebsig Midt bits briossa ni asqyt aaslo nsswtsd bovom

:516 anojaulonos thsin silT .anoitstirnil sasrltbo tosqmi silt otsgitasvni ot bow 515 aboiltom !soitaitsta

issi tafft silt atnioq olztnsoisq 4 tuocis '(ci asassioni atast bssibmbnsta no sonsnrxohsq 5S15VE no (1)

£ abnotts talil tnobuta silt iloijiw irk sbsi silt 'to ovitosqasni aaslo llsnm £ ot bsngiaas 515 atnobuta

ono tuocis '(ci asasotoni oorisrrnohsq tnsbuta aaslo llsma £ ot tnsrrmiaas Isitini isfis () ;aaslo lisma

tool'to sIll! svsrl asbis isilosot (E) ;aoaaslo osia-is1uoi iii saoclt ot ovitslsi iso' ioq tnioq s!itns51oq

iol bits atnobuta '(thonim tol aoiooa tast no bolts 10gm! £ asil osia aeslo (Is) ;tnomsvoidos tnobuta no

mail t!uaei ot issqqs ton asob aoaaslo iollsma 'to boils lsioibsnocl silt () ;rlonul soIl no saorft

.atoofio sniouthk

lsgoutX .8 usIA !oorlo2 noaliW wotbooW

'(tialovinU notaonn'l 4$80 TM not63nhq

513GM bus ubs.notsonhq.oouqiooinAs

Page 3: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

tflJpJ2Cq C2L!1119LC OI LC2OITLCC CIJCC(r

U2 LCdflLCq pA cowbcuagoiA cqnctniou) pIUZ rpc nJtru gc cac!wgrc2 iiq (C !U1C12(S(C ASLI9p!flLX bLoAqc2 311!a boap; tpt cuqocuon LC20/TLCC qccz2ov2 WuI(pIU 71S7C2 (c &22iiJwciJ( O MC&JCCL 2tflqQzg2 O 2WSflGL cJRaGa

5HZTIJn2PCY 9UL1pIUC2 (i2 qicLcucc (0 owucq 2WLC JCACJ A91J3JC2 (JJ1( P! JJC Wn1(!BIc awcc ?rnqc2' !J(JJOnp

cqflCUi!OIJUf ((IJIJJcU( uq BnpBcdncuz C9WiU2flJJCLC97 cqnesflou LC2CgLCpCL2 rcuq (0 IJ9JASC 2r3uqLqiscq 1C2L 2C0LG2' CCOUOIIfl2(2 ituq (0 !C172 OIJ 2UIqCIU,2

JJJJCLC 12 3J20 qcpscc OtsCL Mf13C aponjq C WC SbbLObLWf C mciuc o cpooj ornbrn2 stq Buq }(UICCL'

!u LBU pA concern 0L oiicq MLIffpJC2' 9'? IS2GLCGL2 ogcu 2bcC!Q cqncpou bi.oqncpou

GIIJJCL Si IJJG awqcui' CJ&BB 2Cp0OJ OL 2191C IGAGU NOLGOAGLa WUCfl0IThJ OUIJ12211GB SLG 14AGU

TooQ)3 wsuA o w° abccfficspon !2211c2 &Lt2c pCCSIIBG O, W boB2ip!JuA 0j omigeg A&L!SpJG2a

/Mw!u-awic '49'W 9'LG !WGJA i U'J !1J!&IJ!UC5tU 0L MLoU-2!UGcl G2W9'V (2CC H9'UR2PCK'

! 2CJJOOJ LC2OIILCCE Ab!c9'JJA uq bo?! AG GGC2 O 2CJJ00 LCaOflLCGBa /AJJGLCS2 2UIqJC2 W9'112G

couarrcuqA A;jq 2!IJfljC9'Ul GjCj2a JJOIAGAGL wowpiA G2JUJSjG2 Wl nBC GL022-2UG ASLWflOU

iqcIJIiLjCSpOU -- O4 WC cqncsviou bwqnciou LJILJCI1OIJ,4 !2 nhJccJ4flIJ'1 2OII abccipcslion? qo

2BGCIIJCSTJOIJ -- rIJcJfrqiu IJJG IJIUCIIOXJSJ JOLIxJa JGAGJ OJa

LGJGASIJI COUrLOJ A&L9'JGB a

IATRCJJ O m 11IJCGLW!IJVA !U 1P JUGL9'WLC qCLJAG2 LOW pc pt w mc &bbtobutc

onrbru' IJflU MICJJ bsucrn o, uo ctjpc 01. UGSg!AG cLjccrB'

bsu;z.u ws iucjnqc & JC92 ornc boBiqAc LCJ&IIOU pcimccu qoJJ&L2 2bGIJI On ;qiicsTioU 9'JJq

BnpBCf 00 iP w'q cnnwcicq pA H"PW snq concjnqca 41rpc qw &LC mc::; C0112!2IGIJI PAlm

&uq BWqcIJl b;q,ounsucc0 BA COUILS2Ia Cl sy (1oo4) couqulci WGW-SIJ9'JA2!2 o (s

coucjnqca' U..LIJGLG stbc&L2 10 pe no 2iOU 01. 2ABfcuJsllc LcJwou2JJib pcutccu 2cpooj cxbdnqwtc2

caccl oi, acpooj rubnIB ou wqcui SCpTCAGWCUI 9'LC 2pa!csJJA V12!11!UC9'U1' j-uñnap;jc (io®

tcuq 10 LGSCJJ COUIJCl1IJ C0uC1112!OIJW EOL 6X912B1G pcq On WC iyci Wi WOBI G21{IIJSIGB O w

Lnq 9I1JPfl0f12 a CO1JTJ!C11Ua

svq acs 1c211J12' EACU dngupwr!Ac BIIIJJTII9'L!C2 O, VP jucmc

jpc jsic jIILBWLG ou pc cacci o, BCJJOOJ LGBO11LCC2 oIl 2WGUI scjnccmcui cuctsjjA

f

Page 4: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

if iiq I0LGL SIJq BLG& jgy bS?1 LCCSLC bUWifLIIA C0U21212 0J, COHJbifL!201J2 OL WCif 112 CtMCGU

wqcu !" LGflJSL-2iSC C1922C2 gponr ifU q© (2cc ffioIq' C J TôôO L!m ifuq vcP!JJc2 ThôO

cjsace' Mpilc atnqcuvz w CJ2C2 MUJJ s CifCCL siqe AbicifJJ? q!q uor beqoun qJcLcuqA wsu

ifuifJAaia &2 j4onuq tnqcur w jifC2 tcuqcq o bcqoun CUGL rpsu ewqcura 111

IPC 2IVK q&w ps/C CGU CXSUJ!uGq CXICU2IACJA fA if U IUCUJSJ ICifW (4 LG2GifLCJJCL2 .LP!2

2CJ500J2 IPC 2UTqCUI2 EACLC !ACIJ if p&UCLA O atifUqSLqiScq tC2V S i]JC cuq 04 CSCJJ 2CJJOOJ ACSL

Lcdnucq to jrnic si ir ouc o cscp cJ922-2!sc iAbc ifIJJ isuqom ifaJuuJcu oojc bjscc Et!LJHU

OACL 9}J 40flL ?icste w 2ifuJbJc iucjnqcq TIQOO 2tflqGUI2 L0W () 2CJ300Jr EP 2CJJOOJ ff92

CJ922 Abe 40L jOflL XC912 3OUJG QOOO-'OQO 2Lf1CU42 MCLC mc bo]ccv ccp Acsr

c9CJ.JCL2 siqc ygCUJJCIL iIJIfiSj S22IUUJCU1 £JJC qc2iu cjjcq 0L 2WCIJ12 10 LCUJ3IU us mc 2SUJC

CJ&22G2 (53-32 awqcut2) ifuq LcnJsL\siqc cjs2ece (- awq;ui) MP!CP 9J20 Jucjnqcq

pC&1WJIIJ W Jà82-82 2CJJOOJ )&&L 2UJSJJ CJ922C2 (ra-i uiqcua bet cifcpCL)e LCflJSL 2!SC

! MJJ!CP jcxuqcIIifgcu awqcur suq qrcu. sscpct2 mcLc isuqousjA if22iucq o ouc o cptcc tonba

VCP!CACWGUT Kt!TO GXbCL1TJJCUi JCUOEAU 92 wo1ci 2JNJ� bLO]cC 21V1� ff92 S JOU1UTIUSJ 2UIqA

cxbcmcut oU CJ522 2!SC CACL couqnc;cq !U £I.Jc mrcq 2W1C2 JJC jCUUC22CC WQUt\jC9tJJCL

JY!2 bthcL bLoAiqca su ccouousccuc 9115JA212 oj mc oujA J9LG-2CSJQ suqounxcq

Op2CLA9flOUSJ Ewqicv

qqjcLCIJ LC2OITLCC2 ffoffjq JJCjb octcomc urnuA o qjcc 12211C2 suq btoAiqc r qucc 9L

c jctcj) y cJn2;cifJ cxbcLuncui !U /AJJICJJ 2WCIJ12 SLC LifuqomlA saaiucq 10 Cj522C2 NIUJJ

r mc omucq CJJ9LSCCLI21JC2 pstc if LG91CL cacc OU W LS1cC1OLA o1, awqcu bcqpunwucc qnu

coacjswq MIII' 2CJJOOJ LC2011LCC2 (ifgponp 2flCjJ qujptcuciu conjq rugoqncc LC9TCL btopjcwa

JJIUCIJOJJ2 !U CLUJ2 01, jC2t-2C0LC CJJifJJC2 40 qqjpcucc Out OUJittCC CJJSLSCICLI2IJC2 flJST WIJJt PC

5

Page 5: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

E

isllslaoM s!oitxs WSIV31 £ nI .1SVSL 2a613 sill Is soiisiiav 1o aia'lsns bus aquoi IIIsrIInI22S 3111

insnoqmi leorn sth 'to SilO 21 doirIw lnsiniioqxs bsilotnoo s" as 5IAT j35101q bscfhoaeb (QQ1)

113153251 'to sbm1nsm bus bnbl sth asisilaulli bus Iuo bsinso isvs anoi1silasvni Isnoijsoubs

21001132 nsthnai1a 01 nons3ubs 'to bIsfl 8th uk bsbssn

sth iii niasb Islnsrrthsqxs Isthi sifi marl anoilsivob siow sisill lnsrn15qX3 ns ill aA

'1mobnsi sisw aaaaslo ssi2-1s1Usl irk ainsbina 1aiiH .SIATa 133'[oiq 'to noiisinsmslqmi Isulos

sbsi laift 'to ninnisd sill Is asbis smil-Ilifi luoilliw bus cliiw asaaslo nsswlsd nisE bsniaas

10 Isa sinsa sill illiw nsllo ,asaasfo lisma ni no bsunilnoo asaaslo llsma iii alnsbwa sliilw

orlw 2322513 is1usi iii n5th11113 'to alnslsq slsQsIq 01 snob asw noilssimobnsi-s$i E.lsmaas13

alsnnsglsbnol 101 slsb 'to aiaLsns sausosa .Jnsmniaas Isilini a'nsiblirlo 113th luods bsnislqmoo

25W Ii 2522513 3S12-1$1u51 flu InsfflsVsurlon no sbus isdossl sb ioslls 1nsoflinia s slsoubni ion bib

aslsmaaslo a'eno 'to (onslanoo sth Ii tua .amsldoiq ws't 315513 bluow siubsooiq airil Isdll j,31

'(d bsaimoiqrnoo 21 riorxsgisbni isils croak sqrnoo lslnsrinisqxs sib noth in3msvaurf3s 253cI5tJItnI

.noilssimobnsi-si sill

alnsbula 'to lnsoisq 01 ls1srnixoiqqs Isifi ai irismisqxa sib 'to noilslimiI bnoosa A

lsiouvsclsd 'to sausosd 'lhsmhq 4asbsig nsswisd asaaslo is1usi bus llsma nsswlsd bsrloliwa

sth saimoiqmoo oafs bluoo anoilians-il mobnsinon sasdT .alnislqmoo Islnsisq io amsfdoiq

51530151 'dlsiutsn asilimsl usd1 bus alnsbrfla smoa salJs3sd siornisrIriu .ailuasi lslnsrni-isqxs

bns (O ol 11) asaaslo Ilsina ni bsbnslni null siorn bsiisv 3112 aaslo Isijios 155' Ioodoa sth giinub

slqmsa ni1oorloa 'to asibula lsnibuii3nol laorn ni as t1Isnil .(OE 01 1) asaaslo 151Lls1 flu

Is flu nuaaum susw nsrisgzsbrnA flu Insasiq siow orlw ainsbma 'to 'tlsd -- nomrnoo asw noiiiifls

.2322513 lLama sill anoms b3vom sd bluoo a;n3buia ,aaslo llsma sno ascii 310111 bsri 100(132 6

Page 6: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

qnu 5200 !UPP!r9TJ12 sug unsj ffi92 qctjucq 92 LandS MuIp LCMCL 1p9u s'200 rup9prrsufvwc jnucp 2flflLP9U m2 qcijuq s rpc pwucc at wcuobojn9u ns 2cpoOJ2 rnpmn1n qcijucq 92 rcmu h\rrp wow

JI1IJCL CIA 2CJJOOJ MGLG qcrjucq 92 2CPOOJ JU UJCfLObOJ!t9U SLCSZ !IJ MJJ!CJJ WO1.C (p911 psif Oj 2LUCUL LcCcmcq

41P! 2CC(IOU qwm2 pcutijA ILOUJ ffioLq (moo) &uq hOJCL

cjwaaca bci. isqc 2o itpu ccp 2CJJOOJ 2WCUI2 conjq JC s22iUCq to amsjj CJ2 (J3-J3y

2CJJOOJ Ms cdnJLcq to 2iU rib j,o oriL Acst uq pc J&LC cuorip to sccommoqtc ct jcsar tjmcc

o jcuncacCe suq JSUqCLpqC flU!ACL!tA 10 fC CJ!!PJC to bstqcbstc !U W CXbCLWJCIJC s bnpjic

pA s fCSW 04 LC2CSICJJCLE 91 jCJJUC2CC 2(STC fluTACt2itA V'ICWbVIa 2C91C flUACLO WC UU!ACL2!CA

!u JUUCL-citA1 anpritpau ntpsu suq msj acpoojr jyc LCCSLCJ1 ttSa qc2iucq sug csrncq orn

vs UJ!JJ!OIJ OACL JOITL ACaLV4 JJJC jCIJTJ2QC JC12JSWLG LcdnrLcq qnt w 2cnqA iucjnqc wqcuve

bL0QCL EIVI� M&2 iqcq pA (pc ICUIJC22GG JGI2J&fTILG' 91 & 0f&j' Coat ° &bbLoxuusjcJA

V DCa! &uq pthjcmcuwpou

if °" W°1t 2IVK 1 DW

J&LC J!VCLSWLG pcq ou op2Ci.AStJ0iJJ qstw

IJOIJCXLCLLUJCLTI&J SW yuq tpiLq £0 fl2 fJJC cxbcuwciiwj LG2FIJI2 to !UtGthLCt C2tlIJJC2 L0UJ w

to iqcutiQ u sbbwbLwtc abcciucatiou o ipc cqncstiou bLocjncpou WUCI!oU to CflTfl91C MItJ.J

!umc !2 n?cq 52 !utmwcuwJ tsti&pjc OL SCWSJ CJ522 2rSC CC0IJCJ 10 112C tJJC CXbCi4UJCUt

0 210qcUt2, CJ922ffiSC2 !2 rncjnqcq 52 S COIJtL0J ML!9J)1C tJJG ICtC22!0IJ2' W !"TIWJ nuqom

C2tITJJ&tG2 £0 1J5tA2 !U tJJC CXLCLIIUJCUWJ qG2iiJ LOt CX5WB1C2 S A9t!&pjC WC521TL!U tJJC COU2WUCA

LP!2 bsbcz. 1352 £JJLCC LCJSICq osj2 L!L21 £0 bLopc IJJC 2d112!t!A!A o mc cxbcLmJcutSJ

rn btcAjorr2 MOLJC

Jc92g OUC anpacdrrcui Acsr j13C2C botcupsi I!m!rSt!ou2 o wcxbcuuicut psic uot CCU sqqtccq

4

Page 7: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

monjq LCCC!AC

! jpc COIJILOJ LOflb (c LCIIJL CJ22G2) monjq LJOt pc BLCACU(Gq LOW LCCC!A1U LC2OflLCC2 LJJSC ijic) oLqiIrnL?JA

JJJG LGUOU JJSL LCflj9t CJSzG Otci3 JJUq tJ LGSCGL &iqc !2 tPSt JJG G11C nuqcqAzu tpc 2LnqA WUZ 111W 21flqGU12

9ACI.tII OI 232Q1QbU!C!bfft!U cpoOj2 ji&q gg VCLffC bct-brrbxj CXbCUqIWLC !" jogQ-g o 3X54' courbuicq 10 W 21U1CM1qC

affuJbJc OAGL 1!UJG pCcnC wcA LGbCfflGq 13qG OL pCCfffl2C IJJCIL WW!!!G2 !noAq o g ECJJOOJ SOTJC

wnuA ucit wqciu GIJIGLGJ rpc bLoLffm iu ijL2t tsqc yqqipoxnjA' inqcua MC scjqcq Lo WG

BCCffII2G JquqcLaL1cu sucuqsncc M&2 IJOI unuqstoLA !U jCJC22GC SI fP mc o IJJC 2uIqA

pA rjsra tGSWLG 04 tpG GYbGLUJJGW

013 !U 2W5JJ CJ922C2' J40110G JJOEAGAGV IP1 LC2fl1t2 tLOW IJJC JC!UqGLI4CU ?IGSL sic nucouwrupssq

uno fAbc2 O CJ522C2 SI CJJG cuq 0j JquqcLsLwu MJJTJC 2WCiJ12 !Ir!v!SIJA 111 2WSJJ CJ&22G2 coIJI{urlcq

awqcur 113 LCF1flSL CJ522C2 &iiq I" LCnJ&L\SJqC CJ&22C2 NLCLC LSJJqoiIJJA Lc-s2aJucq pcwccu wc

oj tsuqom ufimpeLa) to one oj w jpicc Ubca o cJsa2c2: aumjj LcnJsV OL LCIIJ&L\S7qG

OL JcTj We 2CJJOOJ czitcq w 2ambjc EUICL!U tflCIJt2 MCLC LSuqoUJJA s2aiucq (ps2cq on s pat

LCJCASIJI tsqc MS 2 sqqq tO VJJC CXBCUJJGIJI sug bapcth&tiu awqcuc MJJO MCLC tcwiucq S

! IJJC CXBCL!UJCUI IJJLO JJ CJJ!Lq tsqc• ynA ainqeut MJJO cutccq S bsuicibsrju 2CJJ00J ! s

IPC COJJOI4 0 atnqcut 1/410 CUfCLCq JCTUq;L5C1J W flJC JôX2-8Q 2CJJOOJ ACSL b&icbzucq

Lc2tLrcIcq

IfuJe !q 52-33 BCLCCIJV o JJC ImJC Ou SAQLSG 20 IPC ASLISPJfltA ! !q 2CLMCC2 /t52

LCfljSL snq LCflJSL\SJqC CJ522C2 !2 WI ! tSqe2 J-3 CSCJJ LCI1JSL CJ522 psq 2CLAJCC2 o s bar-

Q 2wqcu12 BCE LSJC jsq UJOEC IJJU IJJLCC CJ522C2 O1.1C !!nh!wI!OIJ Ot W combsuaou PCIMCCU

spori; 52 MCJJ 52 WC SACLSC 2IflCUI tu 2WIC (ffioLq CI i iooo) 2CJJOOJ2 MIW 1310W 113513

ICSCJJCL LSI1O IU JCUqCi2SLICU 1ô82-82 M92 553 20 2WCUt2 9221&ucq 10 LC&TJSL CJ522C2 steq

LC11JSt CJ&22 (55-52 2tnqcuI2)' OL LCflJSL bjtia ijflJ-çnhJC SIqC CJS2rQ DJC 2w1d11uqc bnbij-

2

Page 8: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

&ACLUC jCLC SLG IJJfl UJLGUCG 3 tpG p3Ct!OU 0J wiqcita OU LGC JIIUCJY £JJG LSC!SJ W!X

sa2iucq 10 2WSJJ C1922C2 jnq JCThCL 2WCIJ12 !U IJJC!L CJ922 IJJSU IJJO2C !U LGflJSL CJ922C ou

WCSIJa pA CJS22 LAbC jOL 2CACISI ALWJC2 LC bLccutcq 'i'a ouc onjq cxbccr wiqcuta

bLo&gw pccanc tpI2 M2 IJJC JJLEI t!WG cpc awqcut itctc tuqoinjA s2axucq to & cjsa tAbc

jypj I tP q&ts !UtO ThffAC23 J2Gq tthOIJ t9tiC IJJC 2WUt2 U11 wc

qIJJGLCJJCC2 UJ0U 2tflqGUt2 sxucq to tP 1131CC AbC2 o CJ92C2

OIJJCL UJCS211ISJC qUJCT2TOIJ2 SI 92C JTIJC j9JC2 r bLoArqc aowc CAIqCUCG 011 JI

92a1uCqa ouc Moiijq cxbcct wO S22JUCq to 2IJJ&JJ- uq LCflJ9L-2!SC CJ922C2 to joor 2w3!wL sjou

2tncJCUI2 92 IJJCA CUICL 2CJJ00 M0UCtPC1C2a ft tpc Lonb2 o wqcuta MCLC tL(IIA tsuqomjA

IULOLWU!OU WJJ J O inrcq 'V' pCCSII2G 11 12 qcnjt iO JJJCSIJ1JJWJJA 1G21 jciuqcttsgcu

UJCS2ITLC C0LC IIJO CXLCLIUJCUI pc&w B1 CACU ft pS2CJ!UG 1C2V2 MCLC UASTJSPJCe W

SAS!JSpJC' 20 OUC CETIJIJOf CISUflUC MPCIJJCL flJC ILCSIWCUI stiq COIJILOJ L0flb2 ,,joojcGq 2!W!WLU CU

V J!uJ!tSt!0U rjJc atnqA !2 11351 p52c!!uc 2COLC !oaI!ou OU WC 2 11(4

&CCC22 10 qsts C0ACL!1J tSqC2 K-

VI W0RJJ Pfl JJSAC PCCU cocctcq on WIqCUI 1!JL011JJ ôtP tsqca lye bLC2CUI atnqA oujA 92

tpLq LSqC WC CX5CL!UJCUI cuqeg suq Sfl 2WCUt2 MCLC 922iUCq 10 LCflJ9t-2iSC CJ922C2

V tO11 O JJ QOcI CJflJLCU MCLC IJJA0JACq !U IJJC cxbctuucut OACL 11 4911L ACSL2 VJ5CL

CJ522C2 OIJCU jcq to &U flUJSJSUCCJ SJ!OC&t!0U 0 UClA 2t11CIJI2 &C1022 cjs2a tAbc

LsuqouJJA s22iUCq to CJ522 IThC2a SJIJJOflJJ LTIJC JIUCACU SA&!Jspq!IA 0J 21012 !U 21J19JJ suq LCflJSL

21flqCUt2 CUCCLCq IPC CXbCLUJJCUI ! IJJC 2CCOUq OL IJJJLq L9qC• J4CMjA CUICUU 2WCUI2 MCLC

tsqc suq MaC LSUqOWJA 922iuCq to c tptcc tAbc2 oi CjsaaCr v°rn soo to i 2OO 11CM

IpSI iucjnqcq s bstricib&tiu 2CJJ00J JU sj 2OUJC ssoo uc aulqcute cutcLcq 1!JC bLolect !U UL2I

Page 9: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

V

as3nol3Thb ocJ1 k smoa rIuorlith •ssia Jn311ib Th 232fi!a Iii ain3bula 'to s agsisvs if1 bns

nidhiw busy '(mo asw 1nornnia2s mobnsx oeusooH 8(T ewo'x 302) 1risofliriia '(llsoilailsia 515

.alooflo 1001132 idl ni11oi1noo 'to oonstioqmi 3111 Jasua eoonsioThb ooth •2!0O(132

bns ,isIuoi ,1!sme noms eoonaioTtib odi 'to alasl-1 lnio[ tol aoutsv-q 2lnoo1q £ oldsT

• I olcisT ni bsi-ioqsi 23111231 s:i1nU .1 oldsT ni bolnoasiq ao!dshsv 3± io't 2322513 obis\is1u3i

2'(sIq2xb aaldshsv bnuo'i1asd saidl adIlo onoM .2133113 Ioorloa no lsnoilibnoo sis aaulsv-q aaadll

rloxdw Java! lnao'iaq 01 sib is 3namniaas aq-wilo rhiw noxlsrnoaas 1nz3i1inia '(1150112i3s32 13

.osiavs no •3s12 aeslo r1os ni quoig novo '(10vi15101 baouboiq JnOfflngi2as mobnsi lEd alaoggua

01 Inarnn;1225 ni soibut olcfniuw '(mrnub s baaiai I cramn!22s rnobnn 'to Jaal Ilsiovo ns aA

ifosa oI .aairnrnub 100(132 bns £-1 2Wo'i ni awassm bnuoiMoscf 331± ath no 22513 Ilsrira i

eq'(1-aeslo dliw noiisiooaas aotisda £ asill siam on b&f 2oilanalonsdo Inobula 0111 •"' Ifs 2looq 35± 31qm52 £ tol bocsrnil2o 2i Isborn IIO!223131 3ff152 3(11 'ti •aiocrnailnu1i .1n3ffhdIi22S

tlinsaflwwarii Ilila ais aQiJ2ilalonlsrIo lnthxna asvii aib iarLtaoJ ainabu)a 'to asvsw ni1aJna iudt

lnaisqqs on ai aiaih •aloorloa nirhiW .(8a.=auisv-q) 22513 115m2 £ ol 1norrmgis ol bolsloi

.aonanalasisrfo Inobula bsislorioo asw aoq' aaSID ol 1nomni2as IsiJini md oonobivo

boiomna odw alnsbina 'to 'tisif 1nO .loojo'iq odi molt noilhiis 'to olsi 1181(1 s aEW o'iodT

baialna oilw aaorh 8nomA .E-A aobwi3 us io't lnaaaiq 513W narisgiobnbl ni iooipiq sib

aiim iii S32 ol '(13)111 510ff! amnioq ss1na31aq 4-E slow aaaaslo llsma (ii ainobzna •nans3iobnli

boiolno odw oaoill gnoms banovoi asw n'xollsq aiHT .aoaaslo aSia-15113g31 ff1 020111 risc!) oIqmJ3a

01 gnivom alnobina gnibulani anoasoi lsiovaa io't 111300 bluoo noilbIlA .iavawocf absi itifI 111

baansvbs 3niod ainobula bits absi s nflsaqai ainobuma ('1auona8obna aqsthoq) 1001132 1311)0(15

.fIonuI sonq-aoubai o oi'1 ovisos, oiiw noil3sil ds aawasm '(tIsu13c d3nu! aa1 no noiiosiI adi •szioaiq 3d 0T

Page 10: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

LrAThJuL\iqc CJ2GjJ222 p'Jq 5 WOLG AcgL2 O GxbGLicucc nJ LCgITJ&L-21SC CpIa2C2 (jrponp JC22 CXbCL!CIJCC LJJ9IJ fO2 !UJYJAC zi wz1?1C12 qcicc 01 IfJSJIJ ACZG (CziCCL2 SRiucq LCflIS1-2?IC cizR2c7' q U' tziqc ICSTCJJCL2 1" 2W$TfJ

I1J ip b-AsJnc M92 !C22 IpSIJ J0 jpztq tqc £CSCpGL2 922iUGq 10 2W511 CJSE2C2 MGLG jC22 IJKCJA £0

1J3C q(LflDflfl0112

couaiqGLzlpJC A9tiSp!Ji(A ! J22 2!SC M!1JJ!U G&CJ3 cJ&22-AbC 22JthJUJGU( uq 20U1C OACLJzib pGIThCGU

2WSJJ CJW22G2 CJGLJA MCLG UJOEG I!KCJA (0 sicuq CJ2ac Mup 9MCL 2WC13(2 (pGIC M2

Ls'qCL2 pA 2!Uh1JCU1 (0 UJJJ1 LC11JSL 0!. LCnJffL\iqC CJS22GV VJWOIIJJ WqCIU (0

gOXU rpc usuqcq LSUc2 jSjC 3 LGb0142 (jiG LCd11GUCA qiarupnciou 0 CJ922 2JSC 0t 1JL2(

UIIUJpGL2 O 2WqGTJI2 SIC CUL0jjC 111 2CJJOOJ 2 LC2flJ( !U 2OIJJC C2G SCWSJ cjsaa 2!sC qcrnsq

111 &uq 018 0T 2CJJOOJ q21LCC qriuu IpC COflL2C 0J S Acst wxqcuta pccomc aicjd &uq nDrn

jt 2 iqLwsjJA uuboxpjc o COU(L0J (jiG CXSC( U11UJCL Oj. 2Cf1CU(2 lxi s cp'n: EsTlilca UJOAC

Gxbccr M!(ji t&uqouj S22!IJUJGU( O IGSCjiCL2 10 (JIG qiGLCU( cjs .çAbcv

csac (TIC b-Asjrrc JpL w c1922-Abc qrIuiIJJiC2 MS2 fC W&ii O2 JJJC2C L0211J42 Sic &2 OUC Monjq

tACLC csccqs1Gq 0L CSCJI 0 (JJC JOr1L tsqc JGAGJ2' 20 WCLC MCLC S (OWJ 0 J5 LCLC22!0U2 JU CStJJ

511 E-1G2( 0 (JJG pAbO(13C2!2 IJJS( (JJC cJ522-IAbG qnUJuJrn2 IOHJIJA psq 110 CIJCCE JJJC2C LCLG22!O!J2

JUqiCStU (JJG CJS2 Abc cJJC (CSCjiCL MCLC 2!IJCq (0 suq 2CJJOOj qrlUJmic2a ¶rnq (JJCU bcqpuncq

J Lctca2cq CSCJJ 0 LTJILCG (CSCJICL CJJSLSC(C142PC2 (cxbcLi;uc LSCC OL cquicsziou) 011 flUfl1JIC2

jO CJICCJC MJJCIJJCL ICSCJJGL S22JJflflC1J( /tS? !UqCbGIJqGU( oopacukcq (CSCJICL CpfftSC(CL!2(!C2'

sucmb w sqlnat LOL boaaipjc ioiisiqou ffguiow

SUL!P0U LS(G O 2(nqGUfa 1" 2UflJJ CJS?2C2 2OUJC 04 W 5USjA2I qisi ojjotn WSJCC2 & cuiqe

ThJJJJG 3c bcLccu( 0J 2tflCU(2 !U LGTIJSL CJS22C /ACLC Lc(siucq JjT!2! COU2!2(CU( /t4qi W JOMCL

IJJS( OACL (JIG font AGSL2 o wc btoicce bcccu1 o 2WCJGIJ(2 Tu 211151J CjS2C2 /AGLG LCWUJC

S tsqc J(JJ011JJ J JSCJC q&w 011 !.C(CUIIOU LS(C2 49!. (JIG G9LJ?I &5CJC2 MOLt C( 5J (iooo) LCbOL(

2

Page 11: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

2

esqi casio nsswlsd gcrcriotiwa mod alrrsbula smoc rnsvsiq ol sidiaeoqrrii 'Iisufliv oats ciii

bsunilnoo odw ainsbifla io asq1 casio nsswlsd xiflsm noiiiansil £ awoda t sldsT .siiiil 13V0

sill us ,srthl isvo sq' Casio same usd1 ni bsnisrnsi ainsbuia 1I .asbsi £- bus S-1 1-A mon

Jail iii asaaslo m!usi iii alnabina lo noflssimobnsi-si silT .rnss od bluow ainsinslo Isnogsib-ito

or bsaoqqua 313w alnsbwa nsdw asbti Miii! bns bnoosa ni ruE .A Isusq iii ln5isqqs 21 ebsig

airusbul2 .asq'l sate-casio bscloliwa elnsbina lo lnsolsq 11-2 CCSIO lo sq 5il152 113111 flu fithifisi

lsinsisq •asaso smoc flI io amsldoiq itnoivsrlsd lo seusosd asq'3 casio risawlod bovom 313W

Irisbuic thiw bslsiooees asw asq'l casio nsswisd lnsmsvom sill Ii '(I2UOIVdO .asnislqmoo

ilsma olni 5iD ol (i3)hl siom 2bnuo1)1osd oimsbsos isnoiJ2 dliw alnsbina ,

.;.o) 23ul2!ISJOEIEIIO

.esq'l aeslo 220135 asmooluo to noa sqmoo slqmia s asid bluow arioiliansfl sasH! ,(esaeslo

lo sq nsvi £ Idi 3S12 ceslo k vilidsnsv sill bus emsidoiq lsiinsloq ciiii aasibbs oT

us as bacu ci lnscnnjaas rnobnn isairn awofio isill aivisns 3111 lo 3(1102 01 ,lnsrnniaas

OI aesio isuios iol sldsiisv !sinsrmriiani

at2sT besilmbast2 bus LIEU .11

atasi silT 'iss' dons lo IhqA to rthmi3sd 10 ilo'rsM Io bus sill is bslasi 515W cflisbiiJZ

nibssi iii lnsmsvsirlis bsmrassm doiriw •(TA8) lasT lnsrnsvsudoA bloThsi2 sib lo bslcianoo

rloulw 4asl GRE) laiFi aulola oiasH ssaasnnsT sib bus 1E-2 esbsig iii rllsm bus noilirioosi biow

sbsla doss ol bowlS 313W alas! silT .E-1 asbsi iii dbsm bus nibsoi iii lnsmsvsiilos bswazom

olni 231032 lao! sill bslsoa I ,alluasi las! sill io alinu isiiflsn on sis sisil; sausosH .isvsl

sri! ni bs'ne2do 2i lnebzn2 ecu ise tail eth rnscungtaas aaslo 21n3hu12 sill c1 bswasem 2! lfl5ffluii22S 1c11i11101

edt lo gnirmiod sth 01 32013 '(ISV 1n3mn3122G 22E13 IELIIIII usd1 lo boiliton '<lIaoiq'i eswajrisbuj2 inomhoqxo .uni Ioorbz

Page 12: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

01

515W 1nsbifla sbis\islugsi bun islugsi sill lsvsi sbsig doss cii I!sofliooqa ".aiinsi slllnsaisq

taslooa 3251 Ws1 -ixsill no bsasd as-iooa slunsoisq bsrIgia2s sisw alnsbma bus isrllsgol bslooq

asw noiludiilib slilnsoisq sisisqsa A .(oiooa lasilgirl) 001 ol (stoo2 iaswol) 0 mo-il gniguisi

125111355 ioI .C°J 1TAa-bioW 1TAa-nibsss1 !Tt2-rllsM ,.g.s) 1251 los[disa doss wl bslstsnsg

sill cii lusbula 'çisvs alcisbula aaslo-islugsi sill lo noiiudiiiaib sill cii srisdw bsninrxolsb usd1 sw

olilrxsoisq sasill bsngieas sisw asaasio lisma ath iii alnsbuia sill bus ,llsl bluow asaaslo Ilsina

oh nsoisq TA2 ssull sill lo sgsisvs sill 1nsmsvsiclos llsisvo sshsrnmua ol '(hhsrn .51032

bsludhlaib 25W 2522513 llsina sill cii ainobula lo sonsrniohsq sth II .bs3sluolso asw 2gni)liIsl

51032 slilnsaioq sgsisvs sill asaas1o mhrgsi sill cii ainsbum lo sonsrirxohsq as 'sw smsa sill cii

.0 sd bluow asaaslo Hsma 5th hI ajnsbiila iol

tiaa bus TM sill lo ainsnoqmoo isubivibni sill guoms arxoilsis'rioo sill alnsasiq sidsT

lsth flllU22551 2111 U.sbsl bnoosa bus taut iliod bsbnsns oilw aliisbLJla lo lsadua sill uol lasS

cii s1qmsxs wl ;islism losicl.ua sinsa sill lo alasi nsswlsd sin h1soiq'(l acioiislsrioo lasgnoila sill

Mow bslslsi '(lsaolo silT .08. lo noiislorroo £ svsd alasl guibssi aa bus TAE effi sbig bitoose

o1 buol losicJua smsa sill lo aiasl IsiS soilon oaiA .noilnlsnao iliil s svsil eals lasI gnibssi bus

sifT .atos[dua insisilib to atast usd1 Ixon sill 01 sbsig sno mail noirslsnoo ion girl s svsil

;anozaasigsl ogsw cii sldsiisv 'çzoisrmlqxs us as alasi no 251032 3111113313q niau iol in bsosiq smoa ai owrlTt .(VQ1) noasM bits asiloilhD •slqmsx3 tol 33a

bits tsiugsi sth iii alnsbula lo (T bslonsb) 11231 no a3103z Th noi3udinaib svilsiumxn sill slonsli bsuilu3Iso usd1 sw ,aaslo Ilsina £ ii 1 rnisbwa rbss to3 .ly = (1T > 51LT]do,q = (tT)Mci as 2322513 sbLc\wIusr

sW .noiiudinaib irriolinu s awolidi asaeslo tz1usi cxi ainsbzna tol 1 lo noiludiilaib sili 'l1strnnM = (2IT)Mq

31032 laeidua sno II .lnsbuja dons 101 83111)11151 slxlnsowq (128 tol owl to) astill sill lo sgstsvs sill bsinluolno 113(11

oth bsau sw gniaaim stsw owl ii bus ,sldslisvs stow isth asliinsotsq owl sill lo ssisvs sill )1ool sw ,nizaim 88w .lasi sldslisvc '(mo sill o nibnoqaonoo 31032 01 11113313q

noiflms lo lothls sill soubsr 01 bsinsaoiq 313W 23b5tg 323dT .asbsl3 torilo tol abtod msnsq 1stsns smna 3ilT1

.sldsiosn cmli sill qso)1 linc

Page 13: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

11

(sidsi cxl nworfa ion) oliinsoioq iea 3E13V5 bcin oliinooloq TA 3E13VB 3111 noowiod noirslorxoo

TA8 sift 1aia'1sns Jnouoadue sift 'to Iaom ioI .absi bnoooa cxi ea. bns obst iaiil ni QV. 21

no! £ iol !ovsl Isnoiisn s no bseu asoci asi! 1231 21± oaus3ad 'bcna 'to 211301 '(Ismnq 3111 21 iflSXO

.srnü 'to boi'xoq

oldsT 'to wo'i las! 3111 cxi bslnoaoiq ai oq'r aaslo d amsxo TA2 ss'trb orb 'to ss'iovs ouT

cxi airxsbina 101 anoiludinaib slosa lasi sgsisvs orb 'to vianob laxrxoA orb as1qaib j 3111q .1

asaaslo lisma cxi Inohifia 3E13vE orb 1aobn Ifs cxl .Isvol sbsi rioso Is aoaaslo IsIrrg5I bits lisma

.2022513 obis\isIuo't 10 1s11J51 ni aaoth bib nsrb sliJassifi 1231 'çisrrnnua airil no ionod bsrrnotioq

silT .isvoworl sbin 13(13533 orb 'to 133113 inolaiarxoo 10 noiia 110'! £ od 01 meoa Ion asob sisr!T

.wnbnil snimi1o'iq oaoth 'to aaonlaudoi orli aodolq ioqsq oil 'to 1231

1111w 5(1113th ol abnsi aoq aaslo Ifs ni airisbiiia 'to 51032 lasi ssisvs sill isrli oafs svlsadO

orb iosfloi 01 ylofif ai noilsiorlos airiT .insrniioqxo orb boioino inobina 3111 doidw cxi obs1 orb

bnoiis ol 1!aiil oiom oiow alrtobula nivoiifos-13rlgic! bits lsnoiiqo asw notxsgiobnbl lsdb iosl

bns bsnislsl 5(1 ol alnsbula nivsir!os-13wor 'to 'onobnsI 3111 as How as ,notIsglobnDI

s3sb oil 'to siulsol axiblo oausosH .alovol obs'ig loIlgirl is olqmsa oil or bobbs 1sIsnornoqo1qaib

orb 'to smoa cxi 5IAT 1ooo1q bo'xolns Inobula sill rIohiw cxi obng orb iol lonnos or ofds'iiaob ai ii

.woHol Isdi aiallsris

cxi oldslisvs ois lath ao!dshsv lsrxoiiibbs Insvoa idi aitsourt alrisasiq oldsl xibnoqqs silT

.ioa slab orb

aisboM hiouaiisi2 .ffl

too faa 'to baits au rxi1smiiaa iii insmiisqxs bsximobnn s 'to osJnsvbs sill ssa oT

Page 14: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

£1

tL13bom 1nions niwo11cfi adi iabianoo tnomsvoidos Irtabma no 233VJ0291

+ + 1as =ii' (t)

23It2noi3n1Sr13 loorloa lo iotosv B 2! L 1001132 1I i tnabuia io lava! tnamavaxil3s ath 2! 11Y 51511W

lOrIS o!tasul3ota £ 21 bus •irnabffla sift Io bnuoigAosd '1imäl ath nitnaasiqa'i 10t35v £ 31

ioi ;aiil ainabuta ath isvo baisIumu3 noitnrmdlni sbuloni I ban a 1alqioniiq iii .tnsnoqmoo

sifT .1001133 babnatls tnsbuia sifi ina' clans ioi anohBaiiiIsup isilassi bus asia mooiaasla sIqntsxa

'arnabula ot atudiitnoo 'sm 2531110231 Iooilaa bus aoldsnsv bnuoiglond '(limth lo 'çioiairl 5litns

oaln 'sm 'ii1idn tnaiodni b5noadonu a'nsiblirls noitibbs nI .ino navi s ni tnomavsiilos

arnoa no srnb 4os1 'L1nsnag 111w aw noiinoilqqn Ismos 'z aT .jnsrnavaujan iisth ot aiudhinoa

ni inaqqn noth 111w aslcisimv .bolflmo saaiIT .aaiienatosisilo tiI3bIJIa 10 1icnni ,loorloa tanvalsi

ath nath ,aaldnhsv tobulani ath rltiw bstnlsrxoa am aaldniisv bottimo ath II .irnat ions silt

,bsasid ad 111w natamnisq bstsrnit2s

,isvaworl ,tnsmngiaas mobnsi. 'd banirrnatsb a! asia aanla as daua aj ai etasmifo loocfaa nil

alqmia s inarnniaas mobnn rltiw ,wclT .aaldnhnv battirno silt lo tnabnaqabni ad 111w ii

nn aabivoiq aaaasla axs1 bn:s Ilsina ni naiblirlo naawiad tnomsvairfos nsam 1o noarinqmoo

.tnamavaiiloz no asia aasla io tosils silt io stsmiiaa baasidnu

wi aol mips noiaaaai niwo1loi ath auismitao 'd slsb SIAT8 sift gnisfsns niad aW

:bval 3bs1 class ni arasbula

bus i5daunsH bat (V891) snssnuM has asrnbinoU iil za (shorn srnaz sf11 '11srltisaas 21 towsrntfl Isisns aIf1T1

.(OQQI) ioi'(UT

Page 15: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

El

& + 2 + 31X + E\ + 23JJAM2 + = 23

a looiloa i 3 aaBIo iii 1 inabma lo lasi TAE sib no siooa sli nsoisq ssi,vs sib al Y sisrfw

Isib 22513 lisma s ol bsnglaas 25W lnsbifla sib isdisilw gin soibni s!dshsv 'ncnub £ 21 23JJAMa

asia is!ugsi £ ol bsngiaas aEW insbiua ad: isdisdw gthtsoibni sldsiisv (rrunub £ 2! 23A\O q tsa' .g.s) aslsiisvoo isclossl bns msbifla bs'nsado lo iolosv 5 21 a3iX bns ,1ss mill abic as illiW aaslo

nidhiw busy '(lao ai asldthsv isrflo bns lnsrnniaas ssia-aanla nsswlsd aonsbnsqsbni silT (iabnsg

'(mcnnb atsisqsa s ,'1lnsnpsanoD .21001132 ni-ibiw snob asw noiissirnobns-i aausosd alooilo2

. 2i35Tb 1001132 sill thoads ol Ioorloa doss io bthuloni al sldshsv

bisbnsia sill gnilsluolsa a! .(JO) asisup8 3ssJ içisnibiO d bslsmbas a' noilsups silT

.towsrnsil sonsrisv lo ainsnoqmoo S ff1 bsllsbom i I23I jirisl loris sill isvswoil ,210fl5

£ 21 20s; 51311W + = :alnsnoqrnoo ows lo 12jan03 ol bsrrrnaas ai zoj 1(1lEoni3sqa

a! ') bns ,aaslo amsa sib Th aisdmsm us ol nomrnoo el Isill lnanoqcnoo mobnsi oilioaqa-aaslo

Th s2iJSOSd laixa 'sm insnoqmoo ofliosqa-aaslo silT u 3il5l3fl'(Oibi fiB

15V0 sonsuflni nommoo S flsxs 'sm alrisbirta 511102 SaIJs3sd 10 23il2ilsl3fl5fl3 isriossi bs'nsadonu

.22513 sib ni aisdio

mobnn Isilini iisxll Isfis asa2sIo lnslsI'tib ol bangiaas-si 315W alnobula lsisvsa sausosd

aszrnmub gnxau bslsrnilas oath asw (1) noilsups aonsnnollsq iisib no bsasd tisq ni •Jns1nhIl22fl

115th nsrb isthn ,rnsigoiq sib bslslns 'scll 1B5'( miii sib lnsrnngiaas Ininni 'alnsbina w1111331b11h

"rrrio bsoubsi" ballads! sis :Inscnngiaas Isijini gnibuloni aisboM .isai doss JiIsfffflgiaaB 151135

1131w bsislsnoo ai isib sldsiisv bsbuloxs ns as Jnsmngiaas Initial lo Mniili nno sno sauBosd alsbocn

.2ois lnsbimsa 2J0 or!) nsrft t37s! a1ijth-owy Juods o,s 270fl3 bwbtzs12-bos2ujbI wITU

Page 16: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

44

ni IEOilfl3bi 313W in3fflflgieas Istilas Las lfl3fflni28B Isiflni 3211533H) .3si2 22513 Isulos

(.noflsiobniA 101 15311n3b1 alE althom 323111 ,natisgisbnn!

1511135 eau 4-1 anmuloD .ô oldsT lii bslnaa3lq OlE alobom saaclr iol 21111831 noiaaslRo$l

1001132 orli limo a ban 1 anmuloD .1nerrzniaas as13 lsilini aau 8-a anmuloo bus lnsmngiaa5

rrnoheq ol buot 2322513 1151112 ni alnobula bnuo1 ovscl slab oth lo aoa'lnns laihss aA .aairrirnub

21 a3nsrrnoThIaq asiavs ni qsg 3± ,aiaH .2322513 sbis½s1u31 bus is1uoi lii seoul ascii isliad

ban bnoDaa cii ainioq a-a ban ,thsi inil cxi aiaioq a. a fnafln1thnb1 cxi nnioq oliinooioq a luocis

iuol 10 551113 iii .laborn acts or aairnrnub 10oct32 bal3ilsaalnu bbs ô bus £ anrnuloD .absig blicil

b3nia2s thad lo ioallo orli cii 325313fl1 Icigila s or absal eairnccwb Ioocloe sub nibu1oni •aabzi

.22s13 llsma 5 01

bluoW a3ldEilZV 2IJ0fl30X3 1snoiEbbs nibu1oni bangiaas ilmobun '(hill 313W aSia 22s1311

23l5flBV03 uIthU13cIi 4351 cr1 .asirnrrnib asia-aasfa oub no tnaioiTIao3 3113 :,AIE Iinsoftingia 10ff

.aloslla loorloc no Jsnoiflbno3 arneiomao3 asia-aaslo 3113 no 133113 lasborn 'n3V s avscl ol anre

bus aunT!? .laWoq 'xolsns1qx.. s1dsiabianoo bbs Las E anmuloo ni a3ilthalcnsnIo Inobura r1T

ban narmgrabnb1 cli alnabuua 13s1d ascii 1oc1ic1 alnioq alilnooiaq 8 31038 ol LnaI ainabtha n1$iaA

ainioq sIilnao1aq El 31032 113.1w! 3311 no alnabiii2 ol.abs1 bt± ni ainioq ô luods ai qsg aicL

.HvaI obslg rf3sa ni a'(od nsclr iac1ir1 alnioq -E 31032 aliig burn r1onu1 3311 110 Ion aaoulr usd1 aaal

-- noilsoubo larfosaT .l3Woq \olsns1qx3 )153W '(Idsiori 3V511 23i1211313515113 iaclosal aLIT

5 sync! ion aaob -- aaiaab a'ialasm s anti 13113531 3± lathaLIW niisoibni rncnub £ '(ci boixoiq an

'(13V ion am 23111231 iabnag ouli 02 a1sm OlE aiadonau arli lo 'ws '(IbisH .uoollo ozlnmala'(a

(111w bebuloni 515 arnabula nsiaA 10 iadmun ilnnia ouT .jlosId 10 stidw ais ainabul2 3117 lo 7neoiaq anin-eioniW )tOSId suli (111w babubni 315 aiocl3o baa ainobuiz OtflEqaLd Ia todmun lisnia odT .aia'tsns offi ni ainobuia oil 1w

.arciobula

Page 17: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

at

QnslbsxJp s if 1kw noilflwmiraqx3 .ioaIIa avbxaoq ,

Jlsrrza s asxf a3usilaqxa isilosaT Ithgninsscn

onansqxa o 21J33'( 05 tuods Is lssq ot ebust sliloiq social sqxs silt Thili bsisoibrii oonsiioqxs "1

E tuods 51032 01 bust sonansqxs to 21Es' 05 2511 15113551 silt 31311W 2522513 iii etriabifla bus

gniscl 3213 Ifs sonsnsqxs 0131 2s11 1311353t sift sisilw 2322513 cii saoth cisrlt 1311 girl etnioq slinaoisq

stsb SIAT2 silt •siuinstil auoivsiq silt lo cloum iltiw tnsi2iacioo ,isvswocl s1or1w £ aA .lsups

bsiuassm 25 tnsrcisvs los tnabut2 Th slIM! '<lavilsisi nislqxs 23u2n513s15113 isrlosst tuft iasggua

21233 bssilnsbcista '(ci

(8-a 2nmuloo) tnamngi22z Isitini sw cloirlw 22s13 llsma £ cii gciisduo 133113 stho astsrrula3

(t-1 amnuloo) tnsccingiaas aa1o Isnios silt sau rloirlw astsmi 23 silt ascii 15115m2 '1tclgi12 '(IIio 315

tnsm@vom mobnsi-non slcfr2aoq tuft atasggua ciibnu1 SIT .tcisoflingi2 '1Isoit2!tst2 2'(swls sis bus

.tnarmisqxs silt lo noitsiiriI io[sm s ion 25W 2322s13 1s1us1 his I thrn2 cisswisd Iiabxfle lo

as2aEfo fisrue iii ainsbura tuft issqqs Ii 4 nmufoo no bs8sd aIui aesth sthsmmua oT

21fl3bUi8 .asaaslo 5112 1srJa1 ol bacigi2as 320111 ff13111 1511g111 anxoq sgstnsoisq V- tuods 31032

usd1 (ssisvs no atnioq sliinsolsq 5 10 1) ioited '(lIngua cmotxaq easlo sbis\islugoi s o baniaas

'(IIsoItaitsta 'lcio ai qsg sill :iud sbis smil-Ihft s tuocitiw aaslo lsliJg5I s ot bscigiaas alnisbuia

no 3ooThs lsiviit £ '(Ino end sbis lsnIosst s tsnlt aldieaoq Ciii ,CuclT .Isvol sbsig aim cii tnsoiILrIgie

silt Cbnuomnoo 2322513 islugsi: ni asbis smit-risq lo ti1ids1isvs silt 313th 10 ,Jnsmsvoinlos Inabtile

.sbis us 1o toslis efl won! isslonu ai Ii ,'(fstsnufloinu Vllsma 10 gid aaslo 1151112 s gnibnsits Io tosqrrii sib 21

o slquoo s aaslsnIriavaM .Csmootuo sldignst 01 olni quiz Ctast 323111 flO 231002 ilitnsoisq

31i1n3313q sgsisvs sift lo noilsivab bisbciste silt 01 syitslsi ,tnH .svilsirrio'tni sis anoansqcnoo

QI. bus sbsig baoosa cii SS. sbsig taut ni 85. .ilsJlSglSbIti)l flu os. :sis 23112 JoslIs sd! •51032

Page 18: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

-aaRIa bslsmilas sib sisqmoo bluos sno !b003se (t nmuloa ni lthocn sill no bsasd) abng biirll Ri

silt nsflngisbniA 01 ,

slqnisxs ioT aortaiislosisds tnsbrna isrito lo alosils silt ot alosuls asia

51032 3253 )1351d-sllifW sill as agisi as tnsoisq tô fliocls 21 easls llsma s ox bsngieas gthsd o iasqrth

.sldssia sis asbiflingsm sill a3ntsm iliod 'E .sgml as insoisq £8 ci Ii sbng bunt ni bns ,qsg

nohhflA lo elssII3 A

ilOfflffIOO 21 aA .fioitrnls siqinsa lo losqrni silt no s3nsbivs slqinia amoa asbivouq V sldsT

li II .asaasls SIA'ra tosou moxl rigid 'isv asw noitiutls noitsoubs b asibifla Isnibinignol ni

no 2s103c t2si isnfgid bsd slqrnsa sill fisi oilw asaal3I3 uslugsu ol bsngiaas 1Jfsnigiuo alnsbma

aaslo llsma sill nsffi rslqmsa sill ñsl oath oilw ascaslo llsrna ol bsngiaas aiisbma nsth sgsusvs

-rigid Isifi 21 11J') inigirn noithlts b xnsllsq ainlt '(dv! noassi anO .cbuswqu bsasid ad Iliw alosits

nsiblicla usd1 hours 03 '(lsMiI atom f135d svsrl 1rIim asaasla usgusl iii nsubluilo to alnstsq smooth

grnlaubs ,rissnl tA .asaaslo 116112 !Ii ltSIbIiilo lo atnstsq uslurna nsdll sinit usvo aloodsa stsviuq iii

sill bstixs oniw alnsbffla tot asuosa ast gnituqini to uettsrn s ai noiliutls mobnsunon sldiaaoq uc

105351 taorn atiisbijja sib gningiaas '(d '(Isbino snob ad flE3 amnli ntsb Isnibutignol iltiW .slqrnsa

Tt.slqmsa silt mon tnsads asw tnsbuta sib iisilw auss' ni tnsbina isrlt 01 shnsousq last

-non rftiw alnsbina lo usdmun tasgusi sill asbuloni V sldsT lo I nmuloo iii bsau slqrrisa silT

slqmsa bns Isbom sill ol '(158013 bnoqasnoo alhiasu sasiff .sbsug iloss sldslisvs smb gniaaim

lsvo asgnsils ti sausoad bsttiino ai aldsiuzv ilonul saiI silt lqaoxs ô oldsT lo V iimuloo ni bscu

nibnuoiiua 2iS5 3ff! 111 31002 1231 OgBISVS sill Msmulsi isis! md slqmsa sill floE oilw mnobula S to saso sill n! bib luff 51032 las! 3fnzaim a bail of!w amnsbula idl boiuqnil oats siow 201032 lasT bow aaw sonoads ainobula sill

.(bojoubnoo 25W las! oHm norlw inoacis siow 'oili sausood oiqmi.a sill 11X3 10(1

Page 19: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

VI

lnsmnxaas lsiiirii nus3ibrLi sldsiisv 'mrnub 3113 flO ltisioiflsoo sth '1no ,i3i1qmi2 ioI 81.SIIHI

slqmse sth nsth xs1 21 £ iimiiloo ni boau slqms2 silT .sIcIsl sill lii bstioqsi 21 aaslo IIsiiia £ oi

mnoxq sill bsislns oilw irisbula 'ins eulq slqmsa I nnuiloo sill asbuIDni 31 oaussd I arnulos iii

aslilnsoisq 1233 bsluqmi gnxni2as ,

sbst lnsnuo oth td slqmsa 5113 bsiixs bits sbsi isihss its iii

1auoivsiq svsil Ion bluos alnsbula nsrisgtsbnnl sausosa) slqmsa oth bsiixs orlw atasbula 01

Jasi bsluqmi gniau aslsniila3 (.woi 12111 sth ni snma eth ai ssia slqmsa ath slqmsa sth bsiixs

sill niau asIsifflias sth 01 tlimia oliitp '1svi1sfllsup sis anoilsvisado it12a1ffl idi ashmnsoisq

mc bnsinon •auilT • sbs:r isluoiflsq doss ni lnsasiq sisw oilw anoim'nsado lo slqms2dua

Ic lslxIismt sill bits ô sldsT ni aloslls ssia aaslo bslsrnilas sill asid ol issqqs ion asob noilitis

.srnb gniaaim-non 1131w anoils'nsado seoth fno aesili u isqsq sth

aisboM asIsxJp2 in! sgsi2-owT 11

asaaslo lThma or bsnieas ataw ocIw kzsathsqxs RATE ioaLoic sill iii alnsbuta bslon aA

lns;alloms bits viIidom lnsbwa lo oausosd asaaslo ilsill ni alnsbnia lo isdinun nj-xsv £ bsil

.23S12 22s13 slcfshsv bsrl asaaslo ssia-is1usi ath ni alnsbwa hsIimia .21001132 22013S asonsisilib

Isnsint A .lnuooos olth ssia aaslo Isulos s4s1 bluow lnsmovsixlos Ia Isbom sisiiqoiqqs siam A

isdmun Isnios sill iloffiw ni: lnsmsvsiilos lnsbwa lo Isbom is1unshl s ai noitsufla audi iol Isbom

sq'i easlo £ ol lnsmniaas Isitini bits ,sbia bnsil-lilh sth no bsbuloni 21 aaslo sill ni atrisbula lo

2niwoIIol sill sismiias aw '11sofliosq2 .ssia aaslo lsuios iol sldshsv 1snsrninjani its as bsau al

grnaaxm io SSI2 22513 Isulos ni1uqmi biovs ot as oa ln3frrngx2as 22513 !stliiii asw Isbom boismitas jJH .2f10115V192d0

be:smira al Isbom sth li wIimia etiup 0215 21 'mcrrub 3nsauriaas tsitirfi sbis\wWget edt no rnsioflJo3 dT" .sisb biuqmi adi juodiiw ia itliw

Page 20: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

81

:(&Ia&) asisupE JassJ ss32-owT cI Jaborn

231t + + 31X E + 5' ic + pv + o = aoi23 (E)

23i + a + 31 + 2D + 0E\ = 1Y (tx)

thlsaibni sldshsv mfflub s 21 ,aaslo sill iii atrisbula lo isdmun Isulos 5th al 2312D sisriw

B al as,5' ,tnsmnsqxs sill cxl bsvtsado 21 lnsbula sill lss'( 12111 sifi 22513 llama s ol lrxsrnngiaas

cxl bsvjaado 21 lnsbula sth iss' Intl sth 22513 islugoi B 01 lnsmniaas wülssibni slcfshsv 'nicriub

21 (3) (trIal ions sill nisA 0s.siood as bsrnlsb sta aslcfsnsv istho (Is bits qlrxemilsqXs sift

oth bits ,losiIs lsubivibni 3tB13cI'(20ibi its bits ]3s1s aaslo nomrrro B k th1ai2no3 as bslssil

.22513 sriisa sth cxi ainsbula gnomE alsubiasi ath cxi nouslsno3 idi bslauibs 5xs aloTtO bmbnsla

10 1E1tJ5I s ol lnsmniaas £rIObflsi Isilini 01 sub ssia aasla cxi nOIIBUBV ylno ,quisa cull nI

sth ot auG .noilsups 51C32 last sill iii 5S12 22S13 [autos flu noilsiisv shivoiq 01 beau 21 22213 llama

sldJi$v Islnsmxnlani bsbrsloxs aitil lsth losqxs bluow sno sq' aaslo Initial lo lnsnmiaafi rnobnsi

llama £ 2aibnsll&lI .bsasidnjs 'llnoiIoIqm'(as ed ot J2 idi bsxiupsi as 1111w bslsisioonu ai

.sviJJ3sn sd ol ,E\ loeçpco bluow 5W !231032 last 'alnebula no balls lsioilscxod s asil aesla

sliM! £ sd ol bnal aalsmllas 2J2S silT .8 sldsT iii bslnsasiq 315 asJnfnilas EJBS bits EJO

noiloubsi £ 2siB(flhl25 2J2 sill 01 nibioooA .sbsia hunt flu '1Lsuosqas e5LhfBV sluloads iii isgxsl

lo gnnkisi slitnsoieq ssisv.s sill ni sassiorti lnioq 2 ot V s illiw bebsiooaas ai alnsbina 01 lo

Ia loslis sth ni alsvsl sbn rsvo bnsii auoivdo on ai sisilT .sbsig sill no gnibnsqsb •alnsbffla

.slsb sasrib flu 51i2 aaslo

'{lilidsIisvs oth lnsmnoo bloc! Ion oh ow ô sldsT 111 boils llsrna s sync! ci bnuol asw this isniossi sill sauins80 noilsups oi this srnii-!liñ £ to sonsaoiq sd! niisoibni '(rnmub a bbs isv,wod ,bluoo snO (1.) noilsupo ci thin an lo

(Is)

Page 21: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

QI

no ssia 22s13 fsxn3s lo 133115 sift lo asismias 2J2 Isnoiiibbs Isisvsa nsesxq Q oldsT

bns $IAT iosjoi bsislns irisbula sib sbsig sib 'd siqinsa sill nx1sgsisaxb 1nsrfIsVsi1l3S

£ nrrwloo 8 sicisT lii as srima sib 515 'sJsila noilsoililnsbi bns Isbom silT sbsig iflsTIU3

aasla sbis\islngsi bns is1un 11scn2 £ gnibnsfln lo 2135113 bolsinilas sib asIqaib oals £ 5tUiq

ailiiasi lo aisa thoR .1 1111w1o3 ô sicisT ni noils3fliosqe 2J0 sib gniaxs sbng his svsw 'I3ns 'cf

sill no 1sr1ir1 51032 ol basi aaslo islisma nibns11s saoth ,

alnsbrfla lo riorfoo doss 101 isrIl sisoihili

llsma 01 1nsmni2as II .lnsrrthsqxs sib bsisins ysib iss Infi sib lo bus sib 'd Ja bssiblsbnsia

nssd sVsll 01 svsrl binow 1n3nmia2s Initial sib asib mobnsiuon worlsrnoa 25V1 asaaslo 1EhiJs1 10

lo svnw doss iol asaasio llsiria 5111 lii 251032 1253 isilii1 ciiouboiq lo noitosiib 5d1 iii bswsla

alasbula lo svtw sib 101 Ini1asisinI .lnsvs 'Isii1nu ns -- rnsioq sib bsislns oriw ainshuta

ot rqqs Ion asob aasio IL3ma s nibnstis lo Joslis Isiolisasci sib nsrisgisbnU iii bsislns oilw

sill niisins alnsbma io insrrmiaas aaslo iisib xxi srnb siom basqa aitthuia as sassioni

bus -Ilsrna lii saoth nsswlsd qs 51032 lasi 3111 jsvswoif •?b513 bnoosa 10 12111 ni tnsmhsqxs

£ lif Insqe sriiiI lo losils silT .asbs1 15113111 ol 2251O1 ainobula as awoi 2322513 ssia-tsIiisi

.vzolsd wrbsgol asbsi us ru alnsbuia ni1ooq sd isrthdI bsiolqxs ai aaslo lisina

stsU bs1oo iTliw aisboM .D

lnovsa aas1o isftrsi 10 llsma s iii nssd ruivsd lo aloslls svilsfumuo sib siolqxs oT

2SW Isborn 1s1sns silT .asbsi bus alnsbuia lsvo bslooq sssb sib ifliw boismijas siow alebom

:rmol sill lo

2331A\D32 2 .Ek + 2321JJAM2 2 Z\ + 231A\DH2 €\ + 1JJAM2 1E + E\ = zi' () 0 0

+ y + 1x + + 31X \ +

Page 22: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

0 gnilsoibni asldsitsv 'rrwnub sis A\0351 bus JJAM2 (E io £ I A) Isvsl sbsi asjsoibrii 515(1W

Ilscna £ Ui asw Inobuia sill nss' iasq o iadmun sviislumuo sill ai JJAM2 sq'i 32513 sill

asfo sbis\is1usi s iii 25W flisbula sill nss' iasq lo isdmun svilslumuo sdi ai A\D315I a ,aasb

lEs'( taut sill ni3soibni asiinmub ssull 1o isa s ax o asirrirnub sbsig lnsnuo ssurll lo isa £ 21

snob 21 noiinnniaa .aioslls bsxit loorlsa lo isa z ei n bus ,slqmsa HATE ath bsisins insbuia sill

insnoqmoo Isubivibth mobasi s uol wolls thirlw aions busbasla laudoi Jud 2J2 bus 2J0 'd

isis asq'(l aasI3 nsswtocl bsfl3tiwa sisw ainsbula sinoa sauz3sfl .bstioqsu sis mist IOTIS sill ni

lsiinsloq bns 1nsrnniaas aasl3 lthini sau asismi as sill lnsmiusqxs sth iii iss' iaiiI uisth

il3ss sq aaslo bsngiass 'llsii1ni sill ni bs'(sla bsd insbula sill Ii sq'3 22513 sill ni a:so sviJsIlJmiJ3

.sqi 22513 rbss iii a:ss svimlumus bus sq'1 aaslo idi alnsrrnnlani as sbsi

anmnuloo ssimfl bnoosa sill bits asismilas JO Insasiq 01 sldsT lo anmuloo ssiill laufl silT

slsmaaslo bus isifossi lnsbuta sbuloxs I nrnuloo mci nworfa ac.srthiaa 2515ff11125 aaar tusasug

.bsbuloni sus aoilanslos:Er3 usilossi bus lnsbuia ioi aioaa5xsi ninuloo nI .aoilanslosisila

luods (d qu aqmu asaaslo llama ni alnthina to lnsmsvsirlos lsth sisoibrii alsbom 525th lo thoH

sno nail aasl shill £ d asvoiqmi bus a2sJ3 Ilsina s abnslta lnsbula eth Ii alrnoq slilnsoisq

lsiiIth silT .aaalo llama £ UI abnsqa insbuia sill isfissisill lss'( Isnoilibbs doss iol lrrioq sliinsoisq

no laz4 ai loslis svilslumuo sill slhlw (8=l) Insoutingia lrlgid 31 aaslo llsnia £ U! wiisd k losils

a bus 4 anmnuloo flu aslsmilas 2J2 nibnoqasrtoo silT .sonsoitinia Isoilansja to riiism sill

.aaslo llsina s ol bsn3iaas 3n15d molt sassioni sisioeib isgml lir1gi1a s woda

alnsbul2 .aslsmaaslo a'lnsbuia to noiliaoqmoo sill nx1osflsi asldsi-isv iuot abbs C amuloD

alasbuia sausood sbsi Jail iii asismaaslo 115ff) ilflw nismoi 01 1s1i1 suom siaw asaaslo Ilsina ni

omil-Ilifi fl.ioilliw bits ihiw asaaslo islusu nsswisd bsniaas-si 'Fmobnsi susw asaaslo is1risi fll

Page 23: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

.aolErn22BIo 2'onO lo '(onslenOo Sf11 •to losqim ads io'1 Ioilnoo 01 bobuloni ats 2oIdErlsv owT .aabis

isa' nibaoaiq 3115 22B13 2'inabtJia SElls 111 313W oilw aSiBffIaasI3 a'lnabnla r1osolo noisosñ ails 42ui

oulsv £ avnrl Iliw oldsns'r aids obsi isluoinsq s ni loon oa oils os wan 2i snabina s II .babuloni ai

a'inabma Isils ni 313w 011w asnabniia to 1no aiaiarloo isnil aaElo s thnans snabma Ii bns ;O tb

ads lo aiuasam bnoaoa £ aA .1 tbo aulnv £ avEr! 111w aldsiisv orb ,iss' nibooaiq ads aaslo

sill tzi alnabuia iarllo ads us iavo aldshsv airli lo asiavs oh oIsJ ow ,aasb oil iii inornnolivns

iii asnabina isriso nloirlw ol Inoixa ads oausood snamovoirl3s oonauflni 1119km aldsilsv aulT .

aaslo

.aaz],o oils os snom)auibs a'ano aonauftni bluoo lanlso HOBO worn! aaslo £

noisosit aW aebuloni noiaaaiei 3115 ao1dB!1Bv "(onsJanoo aaslo" owl sears ol noiiibbs iii

IOVO oniw aaSIO ads ni ainsbula to ff0153211 oils brIE donut aoil oviaoai oiig aeslo B ff1 asixobtila tbo

no iawol 31032 11311111 soIl no ainobusa aauBoaa .(zlsb 5IAT2 au no baesd) norxsiobnb1 bbna1ss

casio s ni nf:rrut saIl no aolnmaasIo lo nornoqolq ior1id B ,ainobiiia icillo nsds asaal basiblEbnBla

soauis bluoo rinsgiabnb1 bobnolis mill aaslo B tbo noilosil anT .aonsrmol-iaq Ilnavo lawol '(2111

iol basiIBiooa aiom aaslo od.5 olsm or '(15)111 i sonsbnosss nonsiabnb1 aauEoad snacr;ovoinlos

5nomniaas mobnn adios auG .Isiiomm oiom 'avnoo ol 1ar1oEas ails oldzna bluorla doirlw .foodoa

.aloodoa nidsiw aalcfEhsv benirno '(ff5 1111w baislanoorru ad bluofi a aaldshsv 323111 c1nabrfla 10

'(11nBnoqmi seoM .niJaoiosni aliup sis asldslisv Iavol-aaslo sasdli nibbs lo asiuaai adT

liBma £ nibnosss illiw bassiooaas 31032 scot iii qmu[ assiocib ads absal asIdBi sv iuol arts anibuloni

'(IIE3iJaisBia '(IlIgili hue ci 11 dguonlitE (E) nmuloo iii asnioq sliinaoiaq b.C o5 aniloob oX aeslo

22513 llsma s cil 21B3'( lo soslita avisslurnuo ads eacuso oafs aaldrnisv ads gnibulonl '.5nsoi1ingrc

.oonsofhngia IBOII21IB52 lo loyal ads wotod sau[ qua 05 bn ,'(lsrlgLla aniloab os

babnsnc oriw aaismaaslo avsrf ol '(131i1 eiom airiioq sssnoiq C! iuocJfi 312 aaazzlo ilEma flu asnabuia'1 .232Z6!3 1EI1Ta31 fli ainabuia nsdJ narrngiobniA

Page 24: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

bsbnsils orlw 2315m22513 lo noifloqoiq isilgirl B 1111w asaaslo ru s3nsbrusnB zsrb 3313011 oalA

noulszvsb bithnste owl A .tnsrnsvalos nwo asno no tosuis svitiaoq sis1 s asri nsflswisbiiDl

£ luocis rlliw bsisiaoaas 2k n3nsglsbnbl bsbnsns odw aslsinaaslo a'sno lo noilosil sill ni snsrlo

asldsiisv sill 01 bslslsi '(llnsaflinRia ion sis 251032 lasT .251032 1251 111 sgnsdo tnioq slilnsoisq E

flu olss ol 132 515 asldsiisv sasrll jsvswoH .asIsmaasl3 a'sno lo 'onsianoo sill gnhuassm

21(E) nrnuloo ni Isborn sill 11 .aaslo sill ol wsn sm alnsbuna nsnsisbnb1 us as notisgrsbnbl

sbusbni Isril asaasio ol wsn sis oifw alnsbuna no sbsi laiil moil slqmsadua sill gniau bslsrriilas

TAZ sill no iswol 'cllnsoi1inia 51032 01 bnsl sbn auoivslq sill 1srllsoi sisw orlw ainebifla '(itEm

istho sth lo laom li isflsd 2301) sila 10 srI aaBIO B 01 wsn ai insbifla sli ,axnlT .(S.E- = 1) fiISXs

£ asri rionul 5311 no aslsmaa.s13 to coilosil isrlirl A .113w as aaslo sill 01 wsn siR alnsbma

nsrisgisbnn{-laoq edt ni lnarnsvsiiks no loslis Insoilingia '(IlsoiJailsIa '(PEni1sm sVi1S5I

.slqmsa

231032 last ni insmsvoiqmi 51513211) ernu1-sno s iol wofls 01 sldsT ni alsbom bslooq silT

lnebuia sill 1B3'( lsnoiflbbs iloss iol sessioni lnsianoo B iol bns 2as13 liBnia s nibnsI1s moil

Isilini sill '(lauoivdo laoM .Isbom 1sisns siom £ sismilas bluoo snO .aaslo lisma B ni abcsqa

bits asimrnub sbsig losisIni ,.s.i) lovol sbslR '(d '(isv bluoo aaslo llsrita s ni nisd lo toslis

'(d bsxslsi sd 1)11503 aaslo lisma s iii sinil svilslurms3 iasq lo bnsfl issnil sill bns (JJAM

.aaslo lisma s ni lnsqa aiss' lasqlo isdmun sth gnilsoibni asirnmub bsloiiiasmulo isa s gnibuloni

sldsT iii aslsmilas silT .bslsxruiias asw labom svxloiiiaai aasl s cloua sisrl bslnsasiq Ion 23115251 nI

auoinomiaisq sth aIos[si iasl-T nA .11 lanisgs bsiasl 3d 1153 'ar1I oa lsbom airli ni bsIasn 51E 01

IsrIl lasua ainsioiflsoo sill 1o noilosqani isvswoH .lsvsl 10. sill Is 01 sldsl ni noztsoiuiosqa

mail Jsrlwsmoa 2311EV aaslo lisma s ni niod lo 133113 silt isili 21 1101 33[51 silt iol noassi ninfri sth

Page 25: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

J3s1s svilsIumu3 sib Th noils:tne25xqsi sldkuslq B ed ol nssqqn bnsii issnil sill ;sbsi 01 sbsi

Insinsvno3 n i Isbom auoinorninsq sill noi1oosi auth sliqasCi .aasfo Llsma £ ill lasqa emil lo

.2sbsi '(bBs sib ni aaslo llsina £ nibnsns lo Ios!fls sib ssnsrrirrnia 01 '(SW

2i Isib noiisofli3sqa "bebbs-s.ulw," sill bns alebom bslooq sib nsswlsd qislanoilslsi silT

silT .bssiasrlqms ed bluork nnsisfll nou3mfi noilsuboiq noilsoubs sill ni bslamilas '(InoriImoD

sib ;aaslo llsma £ lii Inaqa emil lo bells sviisfumuo sill '(d bsililnsbi '(mo ai lsbom bsbbs-sulsv

bEH .22s13 lisma s iii iss' sno nsrll siom bnsqa odw alnsbuie iol buo bsonsisllib ai 335115 Isiiuni

on eiw 22213 llsma S iii Ineqa i5s'( Isilmi 3111 b los'bls 3111 isrIl bslzoibni 01 sIdET iii 25351111125 5113

ihxo sib smiqsa bluow noLsoftisqa bsbbs-su[sv srll ass LsnoilibhRIo ioslls sib nsth Insisllib

baom rjj mill slsoibm stu jtj ni msimq sift bns asismilas bslooq sib luff .lastslni lo islsmStGq

lisma £ B! beoslq ai lnsbuia S 155'( Iaifi 3111 ?flJDDO aaslo llama £ nibnsns lo lftsnsd Insrioqmi

.noilsofliosqa bsbbs sulsv sib ci bsaaim ai litsnsd airiT .22513

:noitsoiliosqa bobbs-sulsv niwoiIo1 silt nztsrrutas 'cf bstniaulIi 21 tncoq aiilT

g23jJJAM2 I\ + = 1.3.3311 - 3331Y 0)

obst nsswiscf astooa Jasi &13ns3tsq 'asnsbxna lxi snslJ3 sill ai sldsimv lnsbnsqsb 5153 51311W

Inoqa smil svilslumu3 no Insx3fllsoo sili 01 abnoqasrlo3 '(llsilnsaas lnsi3msos silT 1-g bits

,. I ai 1Z\ 10 slsmilas sib ,bslsmilas ai noiisoflnsqa ahli nsilW .(E) noitsups iii aaslo lisma 5i11

sib as tsqllsd smsa sib iii lud nzib isgisl '(lIrl;ila 21 lns!ofllso3 silT . I.E lo olin-I s ilflw

sill il3uoibls auilT .01 sldsT ni sldsiisv aeslo risma £ Bk a155'( sviislumuo sib no unsiofllsoo

sill asaaslo lisina nibnsns moil nis alttsbiiia isdi aslsaibni noilsoiliosqa bsbbs-sulsv bsi.smul2s

.01 sideT Th C mnuloo ni s 3EUSE 3(11 sm floiaa33s1 airfl ni asisnsvoo isrijo silT

Page 26: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

jpc CJCCt oI SLtciJqrn S 2UJSfl C1522 CSIJ So pe CtIWStCq OL CSC OJ IJJC 80 cpOOJ (P

WOLC pcUCjjCi&j OL LOM SCp1CAIIJ 2tflCU(2 (JJSU pip SCpJCAiU 2WqC11t2

sttcuqp 2IJJSJJCL CJ522Cr 2RWWCL2 suq MORC (Tofl) 5J20 tjuq tJJSL SUCuqiU S 2UJSJJ CJS2 12

cuCcta LcboLtcq 1U JYPJ IT 2flC2t2 tpSt (PC JOMCL SCJJ!CAIIJ 2WCIJ(2 pC!JCTjt (PC WO2( LOW

(0 (PC !'!t(PI CI.CCt OL CRWRJStJAC CTJCCt (4 (PJJC 2bCJJt (P S 2UJSJJ cjsr22 lu CUCLSJ (PC bsgcw o,

on jJCC JRUCJJ' snq !IJTL-C!tA 2wqduta pnt qq IJOt CXSUJ!UC ?AJJCtJJCL (PC2C JLCIJCC2 EAGLe (PIG

i (moo) 2IUJIJSLJA xrnq auJsjcL CJ522C2 psq S WOW pGUqICJS GaCCV L pJSCJC 2WGUt2 awqG:JV2

(JJSU 2tnqG13t2 ICLOW OflJCL 9LC52 suq LOup]A (Pc swc CRUJJIJStJAC pcucpt OACT. (IUJC fJOL CC

pc S WOLG pGL'JJCWJ GIJ9C( oSgduqin S 2WSfl CJ922 IJ tpc pLat Acst vp;X sgcuq S amsjj cjs

sttcUqnJ 2CJJOOJ2 (P LUC(LOBOJUSIJ JLC52 EAPP &CSCCL (PSU pSft (4 2d0qcut2 OU QCC JiliJoji) tcuq to

p;scjc suq MJJItC2 12 UOt 2t5t12C&JJA 2imucSrJt LJUSJJA !JMJCL-c:f tA arnqcnta (qciucq 52 (P02C

amsj cjsaa suq S tcstGL !UCLGSG OACL t!mCa JDRt (JiG qiij,GLCUCG C1MCCU (JJ CflWIIJSt1AC GLJCCI OL

JiIUCJF BP°Y 2WGJJ(2 tcuq to JJSAC S 2OWGMJJSI tCS(CL !U!USJ (C2t 2COLC CJJJCCt c4Sttcnqrn S

ot poA2 sa coInbSLCq to thLJ2' suq ot 2tfltJCUt2 OIl LCC JfUJCJJ 92 COWbSLGcJ £0 not ou 4LCC

2WSIICL cjsaaca tcuq to JJSAC SpoRt SIJ cdnsj IUIPSJ GaCCta pitt S tCSCCL CIIUJIIJStIAC cacce

JCACJ2 SJ(JJORJJ S JC2 Lca(LrnçIAC moqcj ttonjq bLopspA w m qsis pcger

awqcnrv JJJC booJcq UJOqej M52 acjcctcq to 2fIUJWSL!C (JIG CJS22 2ISG CGC(2 OACL SJJ tsqc

JJSPJC II bLC2CIJt2 () catrmstca o tpc boo jeq inoqej (CdnSt!ou 2) JoL 2CACLSJ aiipasmbjce

flJC cpct oi peiu s ainsjj cjsaa wsX ABLA JOL awqcnta MIflJ q1GtCUt pscjc&oiiuqa

Li HC1GLOCUCOm ILCSPBGUI EU9t4?

12 anp2wn1SJJ) JC22 EJJSJJ (JiG iJiJJ Ct4.GC1 G2il WSjCq 4L0W S comb&tjaon 04 JGACJ2

54

Page 27: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

npttuctcq LIOW (JIG AgLISIJCC OI LIlt G2i!UflflCq COGJJJCIC!J12

rL° uqlnai 9L wbjru AsLwpiJqA iLl tpc C0çLJCIGIJI Gtiw9LC' ipt uAGLG 2dnsLcq riiqnq GUOL

o Lcabou2c2 corrjq UTIJ!1 IJJC CXtGUSJ AffpqlA oi pc LC2UJ1 o w 2LvJ� CXBCLIWCIJI

conjq OACLCOWC WC p&q INCIC O. PC!U 2lJCq WOLG W1qGU12: :toim HCI)ü. cgpcv WWCL 2cr

pCCfl?C LCSCJJCL2 !IJ LCS1JSI CJ22C2 bLoAiqcq LC1CL tJThIJ UOUJJUJ (44014 10 qCWOIJ2ILgIC (Jflr IJJCA

anc2rCq rpC CJJC ctjpci 2!SC2 W!JJ1 SCWSJJX pe JtLCL 1JU UJCSJILCq pA rpc nvx cxbcuuicur

C!522C2 pcucijr awqcur? LSTJJCL rpsu s jmc C&tie&j CIJCC O 2W&JJ CJ&22C2 WCW2C!AC OIPCL2 JflAC

Lc2bouqcq ro w isct rpar rpcA MCLC bsi.r o su czbc.uncur wt nr2 cxbccrcq ro 2poit rpsr 2WSjJ

czbcuwcuc WSA JJ&AC pCCU qnc 10 IHaMCPOWC cTccr2',, !'' Mpr!cp 1CSCCLB jil 2IIJSJJ C1922C2

r ps pecu 2n2ccq pA aomc fT flJC CaCCI!ACIJG22 04 2WJJ CJS82C2 onuq P1 W 2LV1�

iw*toui uuq orn utn1 EU1

SIC OVJJCL 2CJJOOJ2

ji' 20WC acpooj SIC UJOLC cjcbr &1 LLSIJ21&WJ 2W5JJCL CJ&22C2 WIG wiqcur Cp!CACWCur IJflU

qcAwqou 0 IIJC COCWC!C1112 (ff1CL Sq1ff2IJu I0L 2SflJbJ!U ASL!pTIi1A) !2 QÔ bCLccunc bo!urr53

3o BCLCCIJI jrnq r-L&P02 cxcccqiu +3 jJJC mc&u COCIJJCICIJI C21!UJSTC !2 cfQ• JJJC wuqstq

rJnLq SIC UCWAC EflIIPCLW0LC SR beEcdur 0J IpC 80 COCWC!d1112 Jrnq r-LSU02 JC22 £JflU -5' MJJ!JC

jJottu 111 E!ILC 3 Iffio-wtqa °t W aCrJooJ-2bCCiuC aw&jj-cjsa cpcca Ste bo2rcrAc MJJJJC OUC-

bLcaCuc qdtdd2 0j ccqour v jCdLUdj qdu2Tr.A WL rpc cocucrcur2 ou w 2UJJJ-CJS22 qnuiuA !2

aulqcur cuccLcq Jno1;c 21V1� y bstaiuioinona uioqcj as C2cRJnrCq pL annbpcitA sug 10

211fl11 uq LCnJ9t\u!qC cjg22c2 CITELCUI tqc qrnmnica SiJcj qrrnJUJJd2 IJIC &aqc IJIC

&qC2 uq pL c&cp cpooj LCLC22C JJC BCLCCUIIJC acoc ou qnurnnc JIJcJICrIU8 rrcuqucc P1

BLO1CCI jVT5 10 d2UJtd BCJIOOJ-JcAdJ 2mfl-cJs22 cjjpcra' i boojcq w; qsrs OL awqcur 9cL022

52

Page 28: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

qirlanoitsloi 3111 banirnsxs I a133T13 "avilosaf lsiinatoq 323111 no 233ff 3 Isrrisq £ aA

.asazsIo 3sia-1sJu5I 01 baniaas alnabula noms .iLi tasmavairlos Inabuta bns asia aaslo naawtad

aaa) aaaaslo asia-is1uaa eth ni nova asia aaslo ni vilidshsv oldnabianoo 21 313113 lath IIaoa5I

iloidw ni alqmsa a ot '(lqqs Ion ob aloallo '(inoH nrlot bits amorllwsfl lauoivdO *.(E sldsT

aaslo ni 'ctilidsiasv bnsil astho sib nO .quoi Iotnoo aiD 01 baniaas 'lmobnai 313W aiarloaat ha

atoslla l33lni 25 113152 •alqmsa axili iii aaolosl OilflOII'(aoibi ot '1hsrrihq aub ad ol '(13211 21 asia

betirnil al sisifi javosioM .iaa' 100(132 sib nHub '3i1idom irzsbule baa eaeaslo rzinia2s ml

iaq aaalo loitnoo airo '(lao bail alocrioa '<nsm sausoad aloorloa nidhiw aasia aaslo ni vihidsiIav

sis aiault Ii barlainirnib ad liliw alqmsa auth ni asia aaslo lo 133113 sili isril alon oaIA .abaa

asia aaalo iii '(ftI!danav sill aalJsoad aas1o a ni ainabuha 1 bnuois inamavaulos ni aioaila blorlaaaull

.23221313 asia-isl.uai Iii arnabula aol nasm asilgirl a bnuotE ai

sill balooq I s1qrnsa ioiinoo sill 101 Inaniavairfos no 3312 aaslo lo balls affj atsmilaa oT

TA2 anavs sib baaaargaa has ,alavU ebsi us 2201313 2322213 asia-aa1uai ni alnabula lo 31q111132

iailosot baa 1nabua baa aaimrnub lavel obai aaalo ath ni ainabuta lo iadmun sib no 31032 laal

fIOi223131 21111 flu asIa aasla no 111313111303 silT .I aldaT ni barxoqsi am aMuaa2 .aouanabosIsilo

sill S nmuloo 111 1.bom airlt at babba OTIS aa nrnub Ioorloa riarlW .E.4- lo oilsi-3 a 21

no baasH .

(XE- =3) lnsoflinia '(Ilsoilailaha aniamsi Intl ,QE .- ol ahial asia aaslo no tiiaioillaoo

alitnaoiaq 4 01 E £ (131w bataiooaas ai asia aaalo ni noloubsi lnobula 8 its a1naiofl1aoo aaarll

nufot ao amochiwsll lo aonabj:va iloum abivoiq ton ob anoiaaaioi aaarlT .231032 laat ni aaEal3fli

ad am quoig 10131103 3113 111 asia aaalo iii '(nhidahav sill lo riourn lath navi bnA .aioalla '(lusH

aaaaalo is1uai 01 baniaas ainabuia lo afqmaa ant LII asia aanlo b noilaivsb bisbnaia arIT .insnnnaqxo oth iii ainabuha llt$ noma 1A ot boiaqmoo an •E. al

Page 29: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

(iss loorba sift nhub easlo lo luo bus iii nivom ainsbuia ,..s) aions Jnsmsiijassm ol sub

.115 15 atooiis ssia aaslo lo sonsbivs 1nsoflrnia bull anoiaasraoi sasib Isdft siciston ai Ii

atlxizs5l lasT 14du2 snnsqs2 •cj

sIcJsT lo C nrnuloo ol nibnoqasT1oo lthom slsb bslooq silt to asismitas alusasiq £1 s!dsT

2S sift lo anoitosadua silt ica as IIsw as ,tast TA2 sift lo enoitosadua nisiri sift lo floss iol 01

atluasi sasilT .tast ea sift no asiooa sliinsoisq uibssi bus ilism sift Th ssisvs sift bus last

•cftsm sift no aaslo lisina s gnibnslts lo tosTis sift noowlsci asonsisllib ionim '1svitslsi stsoibni

as irioflsq oiasd sinsa sift awoda last I2 sift siorrnsrl1-rn3 .etasi noitinoos biow bus gnibssi

s ritiw aas1o Ilsina s guibnsns iol sonsrmohsq ni sassnui ssioaib lsitnsjadua s -- last TA sift

laoI nssd svsrl ot arnssa sf3311 sioriw silt nO isfissisib sasoioni (insoiliuizui 'JJso:3aDs3a) lisma

.aiaisns sift lo '(stanism silt ni atast TAkE sir lo ssisvs sift no &uiauool 'd

nolaulonoD .VI

saxosiqmi bsl1onnoo 'hooq lo zuslsrlq £ qrnfl bluorla lnsrnhsqxs bsniasb Ilsw snO

sift lo noitsinsmslqmi silT anoitsoiliosqa Isoitaitsia nisrisonu no bsascf asibina lsnoiis'nsado

tnsmhsqxs sift iii awsil sift ts.th atasua aiayisrrs-si tm tuc! aas1wn1l ton asw insmiisqxs RATE

noissimobnsi-si ,uoithns aiosits loorlsa iot atusrntau[bA .atluasi riisin all ssibisqos[ ton bib

sift crrutisvo ton ob ssxa aaslo Isulos ni tilidsiisv bus anoitransit inobasinon ,nsi-isgisbud isils

asaaslo llsma lii atnsbmE (OQQ1) asl!irloA bus nrjil bus (0221) .ls Is bioW lo anibnil nisfil

stsoibni oafs atluasi silT .asaaslo ssia-islusi ni aiusbina usd1 atast bssibisbnsta no isd3id bsiooa

•Jnsmsvsftfas insbzna no iosTh tasbom s 3asd Is astl sbin isdosot smii-IIzft s To noMivrnq silt miD

Page 30: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

ni asbis srrul-flsq lo liIids1isvs Insupsil sib 'to saus3sc! bolsunsils sd 'sm 133113 air!! duou1lis

.asaaslo islxsgsi

Ia lilsnsd nism sib Isib alasgua aia'1sns '<m asbs '(LIEs sdl tcil lass! is 1'(1nu12s1sIril

aaslo lisma s abnsns Instula .6 iEa'( Isilini 3111 lo bns sib '(d sabs at amssa aaslo lisma S nibnsi3s

iosqnu sviliaoq jonim '(13V11J315i s asd aasla lisma £ ni insqa stall svilslumu3 1ss'( rail sdl isfik

sib iii aas!o lisma s nibnsIts isib ai nisllsq aid! iol noisnslqxs sldiaacq snO •asioa las! no

sib asaisi '1lnsnsnrisq 113111W "135115 nOilssiIsiQoa loodoa" •smil-sno S 1511103 '(Eta asbsig iswol

.'OoJOSLEII sib nul3s11s 'llssi luorbiw Jnamsvsirl3s lnsbula Ia Isvsl

"bsbbs-sulsv" s niau aloslls ss12-22513 asIsmulas siinsisliI auoivsuq srlflo clzum sausosH

as ssxa aaslo lnrrxu3 bits sldsii.sv lnsbnsqsb sIb as arnng 31032 las! lnsbtn asau Isib noitsoftiosqa

ia lisma a! swaoqxs Isiilni usd1 is1s ainsbzne '!o eiqmsa 5 10'! sldsnsi rns ru SI!!

srnM .asaaslo isllsma lo lflsnsd nism sib aaim sm ilaussasi lasq sill lo IlDum ,asaaslo SgrSI

bluorla aim won iol ma .niirursl Inabula 10 Isbom stsnqoiqqs as qolsvab ol bsbssn ai ifoissasi

mo-il bsbbs 2! t3rft sulsv sib b rioum aaum 'sm aoimofliosqa bsbbs-suLEv sib lsrb bsnisonoo 3d

nhsqmoo '(ci 2133113 5S12 aaslo '(lilfisbi IsIb asibula •isvosioM aaslo islisma s gruibitsils

assia aaslo lnsisllxb or losc1ua 313w odw aluisbtjla nsswisd 251032 las! 'to levsl sib ni as3nSiSllib

sm ws! asbirrornisM lo sauj isvslo (VQQ1) a"(vzJ bns raiinA as rbua 1anoassi auonagoxs iol

sill no bsascf astsrni1as null ssia aaslo 10 balls Islol sill gniisvoonu 'to sonsrlo isbtsd 5 bnsla

.noilsoiliosqa bsbbs-srJIsv

ailuasi 51AT2 silT .sviiinflsb sd bluoa 13110 lsinomiisqxs as nsvs .'(bwa slwuia o14

220135 2311Ev asaaslo isLlsma nibnsns moil anis lnsmsvsid3s sill lo sbulingsm sill isill lasggua

asrl ssaaswisT lsdI ('1sAiInu '(Idsdolq dguodi) sldiaaoq all! aauansloswrfo rnsbrna ban 2100(132

Page 31: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

iarbo nsrlt 8388513 iallsma mon Iflanad tsrli aloodoa Io atnabula 10 flOIlElJna3noO ian girl nloum s

ainabuia iol Joalls lsiaflanad £ sync! ton aaob asia aasla gniaubai mdi aldiaaoq oals ai 11 .asIsla

II .aauaai aaath snimsxs qIad bluow itoh tnamiiaqxa atom •'(IauoivdO .sbsig bunt aiim latin

suoiaH .sltnslalil adi lo laau silt 01 agnibnfl STATE silt sinqmoa 01 Iulqlanl ad oats bluow

isnnm ion asob aaslo llama s gnibnsfls mdl atasggua suumststil Si lo lnlgiaw ath lsnli gthbulano3

flu batnusmuna asibuta sth lo 'nsm won! won)! ot lulaau ad bluow Ii .iniabina agsisvs sifi uoi

lava! uoi) iaita lava! adt uscltia Jaa[aI 01 uawoq lnaioitiua avsnl a'anua (ÔQQI !ô821) a'AadaunsH

Isifi aaslo llama s gnibnafls to (anoitnohui3aqa babbs aulsv uoi) baits avitslumu3 10 (anoitsoiliosqa

srnb STATE ioajp1q Si d bailqmi ai

ni sun fgniinioqqsaib sus STATE 133101<1 lb tuIsup bus alsoa silt lo atcarniusqxa jj50iq

bits basicisnE ad bluoiia ianlt ,bstoubnoo sun abnamiuaqxa sasdb flaiR! .blait noibsauba ant

§13W STATE b3i0q nil batsqi3iflsq oniw atnsbuia silT .sldiaaoq tnatxa ta11xft sifi 01 qu-bawoflol

sbsig iIlthn Si dgucnili qu-hawollol nissd svsnl bus sbsug bunt usils 3522513 us1asu 03 barnMau

ifIaftIaVs!1135 gnu:asl avsnl aaaaslo llama cii ba3sIq aia'w oniw atnabma bsth bnhl (4QQ1) .Is Ia a'V1

anD lb sbuiingsm anli ausqmb 01 bluaflhib ai ii nlguonlils ,absug cllnavaa arts lasal is dguou? acing

silT .bauaiainimbs ousw tnnlir ataat ash cii asgnsnlo lb aausoad aabnug isibsa is aaocll ob atfionad

-gnol anD buods atom rnssl CT .loodaa nIght cii '1bnanua aus STATE ioa[ou<1 cii baibula atnabula

aimabsas sill gnibuia sunibnoo 01 ldtaau ad bluow Ii 2aaanl3 uallsma gnibrissts lo 2135113 (ff131

luss uaina a& as ainsqioilusq STATE sib lo asmoojuo -- aimabsosnon '13nsi-ioqmi as taul bus --

boonlllubs

Page 32: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

11W021JCK EL!C ' 9JQ fOL[ F LffAJ0L (JooOY ,,vrrcLur!A Y22G22WG1J1 O (fTC

2cp0o121, 0flWSJ 014 ECOUOUJIC fl(CUWLC 4 (2CbCIflpCLJi: I wi- I u.x

HUR2PCK' ELIC v (jagqY 11jpc E0UOJ!C 014 CJJ0opU: LL0CJ1iCJ0U suq EUJC!CUCA JU LUPPC

oflflCaJ c0uouJA go: 3-3Qf

QLIJICpG2 SA! suq ffiIJJISUJ 20iF (j Eqncsuou ICOUC siq VP!J!AU onmsj 014

wqcut VCNCACWCUVI, CS0A 0j qflc1J0U Q\ U0 EJI' bb j-1

E0ICL' 1°P" uq CL0JU LCW (io8oY 41pfJqCIJcC EL0W LLO1CC( 2L'VS VPOR( CW 2!XC 9iJ

]OIILU9J 014 pqncriou QX' 1J0 J' L'JJ bb T-TQ

E0jGLe ojnr (ias& aEdJ!10Lg JurLogncnoU: bL0lCCt 2LVK uq CW22 2!SC b01!CA11 bcSp0qA

v trciniqc wbcLpucur UJGLICSU pqncpoirnj JC2CSLCJJ ioni.ui 5X (wID: 22.X-2XV

E!'' GLCWX jy uq CPJC2 vcvuw (ioooY •1U2MCL2 si;q jflC4J0U2 VP°'U CW22 2!S

JIJ2(!wUoUa iq3 bI ö-NO

KCOflLCC2 OU wqUi VCP!CACWCUI &nq yqnj 2CCfl iM2P!Ut0U D.C.: BL00KW2

siiq iqcucc11 ju BflU!C22 CCPCOL D0 jt{OUGA J.i&UCLã jfTC EU.GC( o1 CJJ00j

sLq' ])V4 SIJq yjsu ff }(IJ1CCL (jq) ,1poL #stjcc E14CC 014 2CfTOOj OnnA: jpcox.A

(wo ): jj3-jj•

E2(W1C2 O (PG DC1C1.11X!USU( 014 flC9flOiflJ VCNCACWCUIH 2OCJOIO5IA 014 pqncuou 5

0SLqUJU VIJ(POUA &uq jçcpstq i• NnLIJffUC (jo.xoY 11fl2!U BUGJ DW (0 ImbLoAG

CWa 2!SC 0u JqLCU12 c&qcuic VCpG cur,4 mico j' smpLjqKc4 NV

yu!uW 102PBS suq A!C0L fli3v (j ,,fl2Ju q9rnJ0wqC2, jjcffjc 10 E21W9IC (JIG 1414CC1 014

ycctcucca

30

Page 33: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

JJQUIJC22CC 2WW DGb&UWCIU O qflCs4JOU

3WGU1\JG&CPCL VCP!cAGuJcUr I�9!0 (jy) wo1cc: jccpircsj jçcbor.t jog-roocr

pJ1oLq E1!PfP' I 1PWW HCJCU B&!U G (1oo4)' 1JJJC 2W o JpTJTJCaaCC42

yUJCLICUU CO1JO1JJ1C KCA!CM' QX1 "° t (acbrcuwcL): 23o-Q2r

2nmmcL2' V"!W V" Uq r' JAOJW (Jo,XXY 41Do 2CP0012 wr D!acLcUccs IP

fl!JIACL2!011 1ÔÔ4

LCBOLU Mu2pA!JJc: CCUVGL 4 EXCCIICUCC IOL KG2GSICP !U B!C JqJJe' jGIfflC22CC 2W

on wqcii scpictcmcu C21 2C0LC2 ID anp?cdcIcIu tsqc j;Acj2,, 2CACHCJJ tsqc CCJ.JTJ!CJ

COIW1JI1W SJflJAT? O 4JJC CtJCC o auxsjj CJ22 2TXG ID puqci2sucn qmonp ILq tqc

BLPffL S9PSL! WD EflJtOU1 G 5J• (J4). jjj; n2f!IJK BGUGW mqX: y

s,x.

IPG EflWLG 0j prjqtcu: LiUCJ J2TIG2 QL pqqcn auq AOUJTh 21 (2fIUJUJCL\EsJJ): T r

fl02VCJJCL LCCUCJC (ioo2Y •jy jpunaacc wqX oj CI 2!SG !U WC ELJ) 2tP00J rsqcr1,

BJUCSIIOU JG2CSLCCL 1 U0 (Vbuj): ?-14

ynsjX2!2 O, ° W 04 DRIGLCUt!aI 2C11001 jthrg 2 OU wqcur oucom

aX ic jpcpsiq rnc uq jçop QLCCUtflJ (ioa'tY ,IDC2 NoucA IA ICLã V NOW-

J{GG9ICJJ QQ uo (EJ1):

H02Pcr E4C (TooQY v NOLC COWL!CC b!cwLc ECPOOJ KC201ThCc boJ!cW2•., J{CAJCHI

jçcaoncce 5? (abuu): no-soy

o 2tP00W IAICS2ULGWGUf O 2Wt ASL!I!oIJ2 !u ycp!cAc:mcuc ioirnni O HUIISJJ

3T

Page 34: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

0•o0•0'o •

E2PW963—— 5LJQ CLBQS20 ________

aa0•a.a

a.at00• V0

0o

ao t0

V

V

V

KELUSI oGu2;A E2pw9c62yA6SbC 2Su;0L.g 2CO ——

20 290

0

0V

C,0• V

00,V

o 0• Va, 001 0?0? 0qV 0ow OVa

V0V

VV

V

EranLe 1

KGLU9I osuaW E2cflyAGL9OG 29UDL4 2C0L6 —— 3bq CQG

OV0a V

ELU3 DGUEfA EPW92ytssOG 2;9U0LQ 3COL.G —— 12 CL9QB

o 20 100

0?,Oy

0,0

0'0

00o

K6LU91 O6UJfAyAct.sà 29UI0LQ 100

002

0

002

V0V

0V0•00'V

0 V0

a

0?00

Q?a,0,a0

o SOfl39L. • 2W9U

012

o a6OflwL.I 20911

° H

022 -

002 -

012 -

V

0,0?OVa?0

o

0V

0

002

•01

012 -

0a0 V

V

V

V

o 68flJ9 • 20911 0 G8n29b

DTactTpncTQU O JG2 LGLCGIYcTTG COX.62 pX

, 20911

cT2-TSG srq tqG

Page 35: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

> 43iii — 'ThaW!qGttTNJ U b'P

U2w911

•'

4:0PDa,C-C,I-C,C,I-

C,

2srnbjc 2W'4' in 3IJq QL&qc

uq

2&JBBJC 2fJ4D JJ jay isqc

j9pjc Q GOjI1IJJIJ woqcy

3L

4:C,

20C,

C)

C)

C)

e Lsqe

K 42

D 6ôq6U sanIBL

awsil

Dge8\yq6KeanIsL

[UewsII

ainbjc 3Wi4J1J 113 1Uqc12914GU

uq

ETnLG S

Page 36: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

Ca-,CCu

-'-4

>-

0-

03 -

02 -

—30

KGL'UGJ DGU23fA E2cW9fGPGf 9

ETants 3

50

Page 37: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

-- GOIJPIJflGq --

TI' ET'-P QLS'qGr BGLCGIJcTIG aCOLG 00

T" LJTLBP ctq€2 cje 2TSG 123 :3r2 •00

C yççLrgou spe 23 21

3 yG I' 1B82 282 288 03

5 MpTV6\VaT9 00

1 ELGG flflIJC

r acnqeuc fripo EITc€tGq J.vK n' Qr.qe

TI' ruqsLaLp6uBGLCGUPTIG 2001.6 2sU.1 200 00

fly uqGLaLç6ur GJ ETsG 121 358 00

c vcctTcTOIJ KSPG 23 03

3 yas IJ 1B82 25 33

3 MPTcG\YBT9IJ ee ee 32

L66 pflIJCJJ 20

JD9JJ HGcinJet GdnjL\ygG

Y acrrqeuca frJJO x3cer.9q aj.yK TX; (nrqGLasLçGU

coucwT nu9qnagcq gpggpjG 7: GOLIJB9LT2OU O WG9IJ QJSLCgGLT2ITC2 0 LGgpwGIJça

Page 38: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

anpaGdrTug XGgL ¶flflLTgTOLJ LSgG J2 nugAgrJp]-G p1 gJJTLcJ aL9qGgo cowbJGgTu8 gprtq äLqG' GAGIJ It gJJGX LGgrILIJ go gJJG awbre ID gg yggtigrou Lsgs T gpe pscgrou gJJSg eAst Gxiga gjjs awbie btrotAegr. tJJGA LG opaaeq flY PJJG awbjegJJLGG geisotq VCyJ-GASWGIJg isaga gps agnqexsga ;oojc gjje rtagGLcgDgG BOOtS bGLggrDa go gps sAGL9ae BSLCSDgJ-JG aCots OIlJcrDgGta9tgGD Ot buej V ID tTT.BP atqe ru busj B't 5cc)gpe tTLBc AGL PJJGA gte O2GLAG ID gpe astibjs (1G' IDc ELSe jrrncp hetgpja go flJG LCOIJ LGOSTAIDa g &LGG JflDCJI 111

ID bIJG D L91335E LOW 1303 go g3LgDaea L0W sso go 331'' T' LSLJGI C L97JdSB p.ow 1282 go iea' uqp 3wbJ-G BISS ID baiisj y tuaea LOW esa go e3sC I B

g B-AJnG Ta ;ot E-gGag 0; €diig1rgA o; gpLE;e atoj-ioa•

MorsE:

ID ijJLq OLqGr BGLCGIJPTIG

j..jLq ctsqs2 cjBa 2T 3Crc yggtlgrou flPG MV MV MV

Y yas D 1B82 2R2 283

5. Mplcc\VEI9D 22 00

1 EL P17110W •€0

n acnqsuca po xsgst€q VK nr jjsqtq rsqs

nj eooisq axsqeV BGLCGIJgIJG

ID IpILq 0L9q52 3T5& 122 33•3 33•Q

c yggLIgIOD J6gG 32 28

ye ID 1a82 2B roo e.03

s MJncs\VaI9D 23 00

I. ELG prrcp ee ee eo

c priqexsga po xsceteq J.VK n' scouq tsqe

I9PT ] - - c°"cp'neq

Page 39: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

JJG egwbG GL 1IJ1VJJA pGrua opasLAGqL9G TI) tOM ' wGgenLG MGJJGL VJJG aptiqsig GAEL IGtf

açriqeug GISçGLGQ- iyj bLoaLun IPG gççtrgrouVII L0M2 G)ccGbç bGtgru po JJG LILac atqe ps MpIcp

aL-qG' OIJ acjsooj o; ccGLrqaucGCJEa }rna ISO GGC 013 p}JG On4COLUG ALr9pG fligjp gaaauwGup s LU]j' LGanL' OLcp b-ASInG Ta oL g ,-pag o; JJG unIT JThbOcJJG8Ta

I4OrGa

e' BGLCGU4IIG 200LG 00 'oo e oor YCPT Caa 2TSG 00 00 00 00

' ypcLTcIOIS i�gçe 01 •0 •28 PlY

38 '13 '8 •''O

5' ppG\yaJIs 'e '58 '12 'si

1' SLG flJTIJCJJ 'e '5? 28 '78

IC 1 5 3

tqG ugex.sq &LVK bLod

GI28G2DT;;GLGUCGa yxnoua wj' I6Gar1TL' Gan]-st\vqepj€ : b-A9InG2 LOL JGaga 0 MIcPIrJ 2cp00T

Page 40: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

aging cjsae gcugrrcgroirpp IJflLUGL O nqGup P cJ qs 2Gg MTPJJ CJJGMocG \JcçtT cjsaa Ma qcGLwruGq ph cornsçrua

cIg2aI 12.X 55•.?s 53

30 0 30 300 3 28

58 0 38 220 Pf 108

32 0 130 53'32 0 1.2 352Sf 0 38f33 0 f3.1 eo53 0 2f 35B51 0 3.8 3850 50 500 150:i-a 2 2.118 108 32 01.1 221 1.1 01€ 322 12 012 f€2 0 0If 323 0 013 185 0 015 Sf 0 0

+

QLStJG yrqGT ETtecj22 TSG yaaJ-aIswGIsç QLOrth TU E1L84 QL9Gyc rg J

2TSG2 ph siqow yaarauwGug etonb T' LILac QL9GL9P1 3 DT2gLTPflPTOIJ a; cJJ1qLGU CLOE2 CPT9 01922

Page 41: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

VII 128 5O 2'f13

182.X

J5Ganjx. 1q82 123 18O

8111911 12Ecf 32

GcoUq QLsqG awji HGanIsL JGa\VqG VIILP'-q CLG

C GCOU ersqe cO jp-q rsqe

VII 13€ raee

Vtq 112 ieo 112

125 1B8 305 1823

2111911 1q32 53 1q85

ETL8; U1J GangL gGa\yrqe VTIecouq tqs

r artac eLsqG PC GCOIY

VII 120 1228 212

155 ier

ise e23 123e

2111911 eo

29I1 MsanI9L }Ga\yrqG VIIETLBP

y jquqetastceu PC B.T2c tqs

WJIJJPGL o; T' EcP LLXbG Ot ciaae

jgpJG JL9IJ2içTOI32 BGPMGGJ cJaa-2sG TU VqJ9CGIW CLGB

Page 42: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

garc

2KTTTR

ETL2

(BE)

IGBC

wbJG

T2

3'aaa

140162:

y

PJqJC

9CG

B

gpe

eguotq

VCTGAGWGIJV

1621

(Jj)

sJq g

-B11

ruqrcspGa

flJG

16131568266

j5G9qua-

ope

oee

o&x

crpa

oee

oeo

0Q2

F00

020

023

023

oEe

02Q

100

Moq-a

o.er

oes

roo

I�GsqTud-2

020

OO

o2e

oeR

0.S3

roo

wggJ.r-2

O'.\I

oes

022

02B

025

100

2GC0IJ

QL

9G

j�eqrua-n

oa

oeB

02.x

T•00

wcp-s

o.xi

o2e

0?o

Too

oes

0B3

F00

M69qpJ-2

O

100

wcjs-e

100

ETL2g

cLqG

wgjJ-a

I�eq- M

OL

q-2 Ngp-

wgp-

p4oLq-2

wp-u

gGsq-B

ETLOP

CL9qG

GCO1Jq

ctq

JJSJG

2 coLL6PTou

BSIMGGIJ

11pJGCP

16818'

ETL8I

guq

ecoiJq

QLSGL2

Page 43: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

test insmsvsrr1A b,otnsle to ontnsais .vA no tnsmnp?aaA ssr2-aasJ3 to tasttJ to astsmitaj mioR be3ubs brie 2J0 :à sidsl

ss?2 aasia JsilinI :mioR ssi2 aaeiD JSLItOA :2J0 'yiotetisiqx]

sjdsrisV (8) CS) (6) () (C) CE) CS) (1)

flSil6Ql9bflE)I A

58..' VE.2 ÔE. VE. S8.. aasj3 JJsma

(9t.F) (1S.F) (S.F) (2r.S) (9F.F) (rS.r) (8S.F) (QF.S)

FE. E2. 25. SF. rE E2. 95. Sr. aasij sbrA\isJus

(SOd) (20.1) (Er.F) (ES.S) (VOd) (90.F) (Er.r) (ES.S)

2E.8 .... .... C4.8 2E.8

.... .... (asy=F) nsiaA\sthiW

CaLF) (2E,F) (8E.F) (2E.F)

2E.C 8.'..\ .... .... QE..' 8C.. .... .... (asy:F) J,ia

(Eà.) (E8.)

¶o.EF- 2F.Er- .... .... ¶0.EF- 21.Er- .... .... (asy=1) rbnuj eel

(TV.) (55.> (TV.) (TV.)

Se.. .... .... .... isrIaseT etiriw

(01.5) (0F.S)

65. .... .... .... 85.

.... .... .... sonernsqx3 isdosel

(01.) (01.)

F2.- .... .... .... 12.

- .... .... ... seisG aisiasil

(80.1) (60.1)

as? as? as? OW as? as? as? oil aflsttj bsxil JooHo2

FE. FE. 2s. ro. rE. rz. es. to.

she'D iairR .8

95.8 ¶1.5 .'es 0eV 12.5 Ee.8 ¶2.8 aasi3 JJsm2

(11.1) (01.1) (.'1.) (6'LF) (81.1) (V1.1) (15.1) (52.1)

8Cr Cô.F 98.1 59.1 85.1 ES.S 55.5 CC.E aaSJD sbrA\1sJLles (61.0) (6t0) (08.0) (SF.F) (82.0) (82.0) (00.1) (20.S)

28.6 88.8 .... .... 12.8 12.6 .... .... (asy=t) ns?aA\el?dW

(51.1) 8r.r) (cr.r) (8r.r)

581 851 .... .... 281 081

.... .... (aey=r) Jib

(82.) (82.) (82.) (82.)

'VtEN 28.E1- .... .... roll- ce.r-

... .... Caret) d3CILJJ esiR (VS.) (88.) (SB.) (58.)

0.'..'- .... .... .... 851-

.... .... .... 19(13691 etrrlW (12.1) (89r)

8011 .... ... .... sa.rr

.... .... ... isdoseT sisM (SEE) (EE.E)

80. .... ... .... 20. .... .... .... earisheqx3 isriasel

(80.) (60.0)

Ea. .... .... ... 8.'. ... .... .. seipsO aistasil

(20.1) (10.1)

asY as? as? oil as? as? as? oil alaelt3 bexfl Joodaa

GE. 9S. ES. 10. GE. GE. CS. SO. S,1

beunitnoj

Page 44: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

qJ4Lq aLoqo-coCa oLO hi bOLOLJIJBCBrHOB2 vii WOqOC JIJCrIqB couateua-

291±16 else C 2'29J cJuqBLaoLgeu' 9'.5 4OL •1L2$ aLoqe' 2'620 t0Lgopne nouqoiq GLLOLC 4J9t OL COLI.69j6q LsCiqnoe owoLla anqoun iLl flJG COWO

accouq 9Loqc' uuq 9'JO6 40L

.01 •JS .55 52 O1 49 •S5 55

2C1J001 LJXGq E446C HO ABC ABC ABC HO ABC ABC A62

110C46L.C DGOL6G .... .... .... C11�)1•40 .... ..

(J42)99

jGocpeL EXbGt.GU .... . ....(•09)Q\• .. .... '.

C09)02

H°1 jGOCpGL ••• ••CSSO)-15 •

(519).9•93

MIJUG .LGSCPGL .-.. -.-. .-.. Cr12)•9\• .... - *-- Cr12)

.16

ELGG IflUCP (jXse) .... C91)-4105

Y9J)1fl9 '• (QS)

-1154C91)

-4149

CJI.( (jXC) ..-. -'•Y92)V12

Y92)VIe - - -• .... (92)

VIIY9Q)V19

MP!iG\VC9U (1A6C) " "" C12)rIs

(J•fl)ri '" "" (rtt)

263.(42)202

sanfoL\v4qG Cr922Cr62)--55

Cr45)J9

Cr41)-22

Cr01)-12

CJI)-20

(092)•45

(091)•4

C019)--Jo

ewoll cI9CCCr61)225

Cr55)229

Cr46)20J

CrIb)200

(fl9)224

(p02)?S

(I02)220

Cr002S

0 Ip4Lq eisqe

•0I •55 •59 •59 04 5J •59

CCPOOI E4x6q EU6C2 110 AGe ABC ABC 110 AG ABC ABC

W92GL2 DG9LGG .... ...- .-.. Cr09)J•Q9 .... .... ...-

Cr02)J•49

IGSCPBI. EXL .... ...- .... C09)-Jo .... .... .... C01)

-Jo

Note IE9CWEL .... ....(162)r25 ---- "" ""

Cr52).95

MJJ jGSCJJGL .... Cr12).3

Cr19)•\•

ELSE 1flICIJ (j=XBC) .... ---YIS)

-1124C15)

-J29J ----CS2)

-ITS?C12)

-12Th.1

C!L( CJ=XG2) .... -S--CW0)2'9

C90)22

---SC90)29

C90)2fl

MP!iG\V219U CJ=XG2) ---- ----Cr50)922

CIO)929 .. -

(rSJ)251

Cr50)rsô

BansLwqG c(92aC502)J61

Cr40)J•99

Cr01)J9

Cr09)r2B

Cr52)•5

C091)J•

(091)149

C09J)J•J9

Cr922

Cr65)262

Cr56)22

Cr52)212

CJS)rIO

(rIO)22J

CI9)r�s

(140)rSI

Cr10)259

i°P16 9 -- oIfl1urleq

ASL1EPIGExbrsuocoLA

Cl) (5) (2) (0 (2) (9) (5) C9)

IcGqncGq EOLW: ILJJ.9I CI9C2 21Sora: Vcfl9r cr922 2156

Page 45: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

9LG :LJ BSLGIJpJJG2Ga

wj-j caa qnwwX T LGcrAG go LGamL CJg2aGa agssqtq GLLOL2

g grnuwA ALTp]-G OL BPflqGILP L9tG IJJG L6boLpGq coGTcTGuç 011

nutGactTcpGq acyooj- c;;cga' g qnunuA Atrpj6 0L atrTqGISP aGIsqGL'

AgLTpJ€ IJqCP1ia TurcTgJ gaarauwsisg f0 g LGanJL\rq cjsta'

A9tTpJG risqrcgrira TI3JTgI gaaraUWGUg go g awgj caat g qrnuwA

LGaLGaaToIs ucrTqGa }JG toJroMTUd Gxb]srg0tA Astrspysa: g qrnuwA

MogGa: Eacwca o; tqnceq ;onu wogG3a LG BLGBGIJgQq Egcp

(a) VE3)3 228 E'33a

flC2)S 22B

flE8):1- 2R2 2'233 r30 8'338

(e)K 235 2'aOO 23 2'aOO

3IB cisa nnr 3TSG cjaa yiw 2TSGGOGTCTGIJc 011 guJbG coGttTcTn 011 e9wbJG

ycgrisi yIJcj IwbngGq G2c jjggsycgrxgI jGag jjsgg

DGBQIJqGIJc gLrgpJG: yAsrsaG BGLCSIJcTTG COLG OIl j

JJ9PTG s: xboL9grou O EttGCP 0 yggLTgToIJ

Page 46: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

bStGIJVpGaGa

coLLGsgGq GLLOL8 iuotid acnqispa T flJG 29WG CJ2B StG LGboLgGq

6XBGLTGIJCG ug €qncgprou opnac acuqtq GLLOLE pjgg tOt

apnqGUp tscs' dsuqGL' giq tLGG JJTIJCJJ açgçna' G9CGL LgCG'

c-aa T LGboLcGq yj- wog€a 91ao couctoj ;ot acpoo GttGCV2

4oçGa JJJJG COGTCT6IJp OIl PJJG cpnj- unwpt o acnqisca T GSCJJ

Via) Y12)3 -81

(rs) (•ifl5 - .2a - 2'320

V13) Vie)I - - - 88

Vr)1< -5 2'8€I

______ (I) (5) (3)OI'2 521'2 29WDJ6 ETSE

ebGuqeuc A3LTgpIG: yAGtsae B6LCG1JTIG 2COLG OIl EVIL

VCJJT6AQWGIJcg: oi'a gnq sara EacuJcsa 0 EttGCP Ot Caa ETSG OIl

Page 47: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

i'oiot awbG 2TSG nJ COJITWIJ T 1'110

aLUbJG BTSG P3 CO}JTWU 3 pGaJ-xJa gç 1'lflS stq Giiqa 9g

uq &iiqa St 3'J-e asuibi aTSG T cojrmrn 3 pGäua sç 3'o sug euqaLGboLcGq Pr BSLGIJgJJGBGa 2SWBIG 21sG P3 COJJIUJIJ I pGarua gç 2'BO1

COLt6J9TOI3 Ot teaqrigja woua açrsqtsça 2SWG LG

GXbGLTGIJCG suq GqJ.ICSçJOIJ OPt acsuqstq GLLOL8 gpac SITOM OL

acrTqGtJp,,2 LgcG' aGIJqGL' gtjq LGG FI3CJJ agsrçria GSCGL LSCG'

CJ9ta T LGboLcsq jj wogsja I° couctoj ECJJOOJ G€GCPBt

j>ogs: SIPS COSttTCTSIJP DIJ gps cgms1 UflWSL C açriqsuça GSCJJ

(I.) ('an (38) ('31)3 - -r31 - '.xI -

('re) ('SB) ('51)3 -' - '.O -

(•33)

('12)IC

GJ7LLSIJt QLSG IC 1 3 3

EUPSLTIJcI rsqs

ebsuqsuc sr4spJe: ASLS6 ECOLS oIl yCpTGAGWGIJP IGat

Eugz,A eLgqG sug CRLLGIJt QLScJGJ5PTG 5I'3 E2t'UJ9cGa O Ot cj-9aa 2TSG 013 CTGAGWGIl' pX

Page 48: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

excjnqcq TUattflWGIJ:2 C0JflWD2 4-c'

cjgaa 9xsq basugrg1 cnwnjgcrAe Xcgta '-' cga2 gte naeg 2teaqnja tOt cps .SW6 cnqsuc OAGT. crws StS u bstsucpcacr IUçJ' aaTaUwGUP

eçggna' apac acuqtq SflOt2 cyng cflnac ot ba?apJG catLaTacrau aaçpna' sug gecyct tgcc' acisqct' exbstrcxjcs' uq waçsr.a qear.eo at JJTJ3Gt

acngcuc sq ccCp6t cprsccct-aprca gte: tce' asuqet' sug ttEG It3xJcw

J4acSa:

wbje 2I 32'34 3't'320 34'320 32'34B 34'320 34'320

agwbje 2CJ300J GtGCatttac atsqs bbsstcq ij

qnwufl'ea ruqcgcrua3 crrtteijç atqs qrnini-ee

cjstccetr2cCacnqeuc giyq gecpst14J30 gççsuqeq jq'uqstastçeistcçrau at cawnea013 flSS JtTUC}JLtSCcIOU 0 caaus&çeabteArona AstcjgaawcsayAexsae tccau at

u cjaa btsATona XsstErCpaU at cJgauwpea

u 15a\vqe GIB??GflWrITflTAG St2

1 GJ'?2GnwrtTgcrAG A6t2

ffeanSt\yq6

a

(J"28)2' C

(reT)-302

(1"?]')-32

(r03)80

( 3?)• I?

('38)

(.45)

( 23)3 22

(IRS)

(1•04)24

V23) ('23)

(•4.)

('28) Y28)ee

Ces) VeE)C?3 4'30

AstpJG (7) (3) (3)ora

(4) (2) (2)

Sara

GaSttTcTSIw E?cIwflS? MTfl Bapnac pgrsqtq Ettat? gteIJgJJ62G2

Dsbsuqcuc gtTps yAetgas Stc6uçe 15ujqu8 on 2VLL jsap

gpe Q: açTuIç6a at aaieq aqsja

153 •18 •53

AG? xea

As?

78

A62 AG?

•53 53

AG? AG?

AG? AG?

(I. .\3)228

(reT)-5'OO

('40)•5€

(•3)

(.45)82

(RI)4•40

V3a)•

5?

(.33)

(.43)• 32

('20)4•58aWBJI

(22)'CO

(.43)•83

V 2?)• 33

V23)4.

Page 49: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

Moc2 woqGj 9J COA9LTgG8 gLG gp 23mG 32 COTfTWIJ 3 O L9JDJG 10

agwbjs 2TSG 2'I2 P'aO.X

' 3j} cIsa (85) (I8) Y23)cnwrrJ3gTAG AGSLB I5 -38

(roe) (roe) (r82) Var)____ 5e2 _____ _____ccA wGcL000Jrcgu J,OMJJBlutist

agwbre aJ-s€ re'o.o

flY W9JJ GI3BB (e)AGSLB 82

Y82) flee)2

BT9CJC

gwbje se I3'oe

wsj cj9aa (2) (a)GJTIJJnI3cIAG G3L2 I'I.X

(•.\3) (•.3)

ELG6 p[IUCJJ ELGG ]'ITIJCJJ

E3WBJG aTSG TI'.U3

113 2W911 C1928 fl2e) fl23)J-1WrTJgAG A53L2 r30 15

fl.xe) (3)3.eBOAa CILIa

GoGttICTGUg EBPTUJ9TGB MJ'pJJ opnac cuqstq ELLOLE 1 53LeugJJGaGBDGbGDqGUP AgLTspJG: VAGL3aG BGLCGUcIIG 3tx]crxJa o 2VJ isac

J2gpT IT: eGb3tce apuJcsa tot 2GTGC 2311JB1G2

Page 50: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

7 LGanJsL-arsQ caaea rcjsonp uagwbTG BTSG 2 8'311 gnJb1c couaraga o: apnqigaMOcG2 yj]- woqGja jao pscjnq g couaçuç

32

DThWWTGE9Q 2CJJOOJ AGE

DJTWW I GE

3 ersgG AGE AGE

}napGL C28) C28)gagGa DGaLGG OL - 02

Y03) Y03)IG9CPGL EXBGLTGUCG 01

(515) (35B)WgTG JJG9CJJGL

Leo)MPTcG JJG3CpGL - 52 -52

ELGG prrnqi -T3•.5

L.\o) Lee)QT'T C53

V82) (r38)MPTcG Io.e3 .V28

Y13) (13)GT98 EISG -22 -3

AgLTgpr (I) (3)ExbJguggoLX

flGBGIJqGUP 3LTgp]G: yAGLaG bGLCGIJPTJG 2COLG 013 2JJ

gpi 13: Et;GCc o; cTg 21SG 0L cnquca T GanL CT9EEGE

Page 51: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

iocea: woqej uq COA9LJ-SçGe YtS BL1JG 1" COJJTWIJ 3 0 J$pJG 10

gwbje BTSG 33'i&' 53''QI 33'€3T TS'Ja2 18'OII I8'321

Tn aucii ciseacnwflJgcTAG A69t2

(q1)32

(3) (I).

(2)T

(2)0.\

(T)52

wJj(2.\)3

fl28)3€.

Y28)3\'

(.x.)3aT (.)cie

yea)COT

.

cqxsa ozq sçp JgGqua \JAagu;otq yCpTGAeWsIJç 1GB 398C alCTITa ETLc

GOStTCTGUc E2TW9cG8 MTflJ j�opiieg cnqtq ELLOLB T' B9LGIJPJ.TGaGaebeuqGug JLflpG yAGLSaG BGLCGIJgTJ-G Ipcrn3 013 3fl LGB$

1pi 13: E8TUJ9cG2 O BO0TG DS joqGj pX aITPJGCP 1G24

'-I

Page 52: cmpqgc viv mc rp w q& - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-06-22 · cmpqgc viv 1020 W2BCPfl2CU2 ACUh1C J4VLIOJ4VF BflKEVfl OL ECOI4OV'IIC JE2EV1{Cfl fiOI4CIU BBbCL QØ

TU Ggc}5 c19aac GgCpGL cJJSLscçGLraprca Le t4GaJJG JDA }JG LYJTWGL ot açnquga

-5t O 1111 LP t PJJG tLCgTOIJ JJ9T GAGI. GXflGq gJsG 8WFDJGp JJJG pscgrou gJJSg Gxrgeq gpe suJbJG ns JJGxg A69t' oL

y&e g o 2GLcGWPGL at cJJG acpooj AG9I. gJsGA st

14cr at 1�Ga\v CEG2 100 1OX '113

jp at gGa CT92G2 112 100 8? O3

ro a; aLLf9jj ja€a 15 15'1 133 1'10 2Sf

14cr at agnqxsca e'353 €'858 e'eoi ll'2??

140 0 CJJOO18 .2 S2 80

P4330 9t6 WYIGBGLGGUV 0 IGScPGLB 00 00 01 •03 •01

P4330 L6 MWTPGBGLCGUI O J.JGSt3JGL8 83 •85 81

PATc33 WV+ qGax.GGB6LCGUV 0 GcpGr-a 32 32 •3 •38

MV MV Pt? •0'1 1111

Eqcq 2au±re 31 14?

(032) (0'1a) (0?e) (02B) (131)yaGg 2f3 r28 80 YI3

CTLI

MJJTcG 22 ee

EJLGG I'fflJCJJ •23 21 20 21

yAa BEE (3e1) (sri) (Sri)BGLCGIJcTIG ECOLG MY 218 21€ 21'1 212

yAa 2111 (3e.) (sra) (3r2) (3.x0) (5CR)BGLCGUcTIG ECOLG 21'1 22 215 210 213

(co) (v0) (ci) (ce) (Cl)j28 ETSG 303 510 517 31*3 S0?

gLrspJG K 1 5 3 vuQLSG

egue Mrçp pgxsqnq D6APOUE fl L9TGUcIJG868ybbeisqx jp1: anmm9t? acnTcTce