comité nacional sobre el clima ministerio del ambiente an-mdl
DESCRIPTION
Comité Nacional sobre el Clima Ministerio del Ambiente AN-MDL. Respuesta Ecuatoriana al Cambio Climático Ing. Luis Cáceres S Consultor AN-MDL Tabacundo, 1 de febrero del 2004. Cambio climático ??. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Comit Nacional sobre el Clima Ministerio del AmbienteAN-MDL
Respuesta Ecuatoriana al Cambio Climtico
Ing. Luis Cceres SConsultor AN-MDL
Tabacundo, 1 de febrero del 2004
-
Cambio climtico ??
Cambio de clima atribuido directa o indirectamente a la actividad humana que altera la composicin de la atmsfera mundial y que se suma a la variabilidad del clima observada durante periodos de tiempo comparables.
CMNUCC, 1992
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Porque el CC en el EcuadorCual es la respuesta en EcuadorCual es la institucionalidad en el Ecuador sobre CC Rol del Ministerio del AmbienteAlgunos resultadosAN-MDL
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1. Porque cambio climtico en el Ecuador ?
-
Responsabilidades comunes pero diferenciadasProblema es globalEl problema lo tenemos en el pasEs un reto y una oportunidad
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Fuente: INAMHI2001
-
Grfico1
92.7
319.3
186.7
119.1
140.5
507.5
139.3
344.9
247.7
767.6
68.2
351.4
1001.7
274.8
385.6
995.2
495.9
292.4
383
222.4
186.8
178.5
722.5
2783.3
63.2
51.6
311.3
1274.8
74.7
256.4
327.2
690.7
992.9
515.8
331.1
354.1
221.6
1565.3
1845.2
321.4
359.9
2783.3
1845.5
Precipitacin Anual
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
P R E C I P I T A C I O NSAN CRISTOBAL (VC=200%)
TEST
TEST DE TENDENCIA PRECIPITACION
ESTACION: San CristbalLATITUD: 0054'00" SLONGITUD: 8936'00" WALTITUD: 6 m.
ORDENAOSERIESERIEORDEN(Y')(Y')Y"(Y")Yi-i(Yi-i)
iORIGINALORDENADAYi(Yi-Ymed)
1196092.751.65-16256-14196416
21961319.363.219-2498117289
31962186.768.210-11121416749
41963119.174.76-15225-2424
51964140.592.78-13169-2248439
61965507.5119.1309812352924576
71966139.3139.37-14196-1625600
81967344.9140.5232498115225
91968247.7178.514-749-20400525
101969767.6186.734131693196124576
11197068.2186.83-18324-21441-864
121971351.4221.62439-1316912144
1319721001.7222.437162562144124576
141973274.8247.716-525-1214424
151974385.6256.428749-86413169
161975995.2274.8361522574920400
171976495.9292.4298641214412144
181977292.4311.317-416-10100-11
191978383.0319.32763614196864
201979222.4321.413-86424-749
211980186.8327.211-1010024-10100
221981178.5331.19-12144-24576-13169
231982722.5344.93312144-86410100
2419832783.3351.4412040039152117289
25198463.2354.12-1936111-23529
26198551.6359.91-20400-17289-25625
271986311.3383.018-39-20400-981
2819871274.8385.6381728934115610100
29198874.7495.94-17289-11121-25625
301989256.4507.515-636-636-15225
311990327.2515.82100-11121-10100
321991690.7690.73211121-3900
331992992.9722.5351419641624
341993515.8767.63110100981-39
351994331.1992.92211-39-13169
361995354.1995.22541613169-11121
371996221.61001.712-981-27729-25625
3819971565.31274.83918324-1111
3919981845.21565.340193612040011
401999321.41845.220-11-636-20400
412000359.92783.32652521441-15225
MEDIA=21SUMA=5740SUMA=10940SUMA=7882
TEST DE CORRELACION SERIALTEST DE TENDENCIA DE
SPEARMAN
R=270.00Rs=0.31
r=0.05
u(r)=0.46u(rs)=1.98
Tabla:0.3228Tabla:0.0478
DECISIONDECISION
NO EXISTE PERSISTENCIAEXISTE TENDENCIA CRECIENTE
GRAFICO
GRAFICO
92.7
319.3
186.7
119.1
140.5
507.5
139.3
344.9
247.7
767.6
68.2
351.4
1001.7
274.8
385.6
995.2
495.9
292.4
383
222.4
186.8
178.5
722.5
2783.3
63.2
51.6
311.3
1274.8
74.7
256.4
327.2
690.7
992.9
515.8
331.1
354.1
221.6
1565.3
1845.2
321.4
359.9
2783.3
1845.5
Precipitacin Anual
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
P R E C I P I T A C I O NSAN CRISTOBAL (VC=200%)
M221
codigoannoENEFEBMARABRMAYJUNJULAGOSEPOCTNOVDICTOTAL
M2211951100.4128.034.482.715.217.475.47.311.37.02.07.4488.5
M221195222.119.11.70.031.41.52.78.23.210.21.113.9115.1
M2211953179.3487.386.5458.1169.72.72.912.97.15.96.15.81424.3
M22119549.544.591.50.00.50.66.35.92.24.75.16.6177.4
M22119558.5195.987.012.02.12.96.57.46.94.76.94.4345.2
M22119564.7116.1291.3234.51.66.48.28.36.64.68.70.6691.6
M22119573.4258.4346.1178.841.06.35.69.54.611.014.774.9954.3
M221195847.6109.499.616.71.31.61.91.68.84.510.56.2309.7
M22119595.6180.0179.878.69.51.95.54.94.311.44.910.1496.5
M221196010.410.132.90.02.41.15.34.03.25.610.47.392.7
M221196157.1105.977.744.00.52.82.57.63.34.04.89.1319.3
M2211962135.15.40.00.09.32.15.27.96.93.54.37.0186.7
M221196325.521.914.80.06.41.82.98.38.814.22.312.2119.1
M221196466.356.96.80.90.21.11.20.41.30.42.62.4140.5
M221196538.266.454.1217.884.00.77.63.18.311.57.18.7507.5
M221196659.841.93.72.70.02.73.81.913.83.73.81.5139.3
M221196743.6204.851.718.70.01.84.32.12.74.92.18.2344.9
M221196821.249.8115.01.20.01.212.012.710.512.57.04.6247.7
M221196924.7103.4488.365.355.70.00.02.78.13.64.011.8767.6
M221197036.30.40.50.31.91.77.03.14.45.14.82.768.2
M22119717.723.8178.081.71.63.96.013.09.77.73.814.5351.4
M221197223.4110.7235.9380.0128.75.58.36.98.69.15.479.21001.7
M2211973185.453.03.210.01.23.53.61.52.13.51.06.8274.8
M22119745.3100.155.3180.74.018.83.510.03.11.42.90.5385.6
M22119755.5342.3464.3161.30.04.46.64.50.83.42.10.0995.2
M2211976104.553.418.0128.7108.410.212.08.89.54.38.030.1495.9
M2211977156.536.049.90.00.74.08.06.21.47.63.418.7292.4
M2211978191.991.661.40.42.40.25.06.14.43.33.313.0383.0
M221197936.2112.213.722.60.43.310.38.41.96.60.95.9222.4
M221198046.742.60.648.89.52.58.65.32.17.010.72.4186.8
M221198113.87.3110.214.61.02.22.52.02.47.32.812.4178.5
M221198214.856.64.011.40.53.09.15.27.27.655.0548.1722.5
M2211983554.5201.8320.3371.2490.5556.2253.96.34.15.54.514.52783.3
M22119843.513.87.80.00.011.91.22.915.04.00.82.363.2
M22119850.60.00.00.00.05.47.67.25.89.13.912.051.6
M221198620.168.7111.628.72.912.913.410.94.65.517.914.1311.3
M2211987139.4535.2243.8223.881.35.04.118.38.51.50.813.11274.8
M22119885.134.34.60.00.80.00.52.89.65.58.72.874.7
M221198916.714.865.4110.411.33.65.212.04.35.42.94.4256.4
M22119904.1191.950.429.11.810.37.05.64.36.510.85.4327.2
M221199114.6292.8230.46.61.422.85.910.65.420.05.674.6690.7
M2211992226.3191.3144.0298.5100.46.71.75.13.27.53.25.0992.9
M221199316.7229.8118.975.216.36.310.76.81.69.94.718.9515.8
M221199440.4147.83.60.00.08.318.68.55.35.85.787.1331.1
M2211995180.270.726.80.00.56.68.87.815.316.512.28.7354.1
M221199623.049.8115.60.00.00.01.83.23.16.04.314.8221.6
M22119972.4124.0269.4267.1145.942.147.333.90.849.0104.9478.51565.3
M2211998389.4215.0288.6589.7201.0144.56.32.30.63.52.71.61845.2
M22119991.326.4214.434.11.22.46.66.25.310.97.15.5321.4
M221200093.913.228.8105.119.37.322.915.017.212.95.618.7359.9
Grfico1
768.5
848.3
984.7
972
941.2
937
1122.5
1120.2
1038.9
847.7
347.2
902.5636363636
994.1
1085.7
721.2
693.1
1063.4
871.2
886.3
1090.4
908.5
1098.5
912.6
954.5
907.9
1264.6
946
858
886.8
811.8
974.8
1028.3
729.8
1093.6
1112.6
1053.9
1497.1
1251.7
Precipitacin Anual
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
P R E C I P I T A C I O NSAN GABRIEL (VC= 26%)
GRAFICO
GRAFICO
768.5
848.3
984.7
972
941.2
937
1122.5
1120.2
1038.9
847.7
347.2
902.5636363636
994.1
1085.7
721.2
693.1
1063.4
871.2
886.3
1090.4
908.5
1098.5
912.6
954.5
907.9
1264.6
946
858
886.8
811.8
974.8
1028.3
729.8
1093.6
1112.6
1053.9
1497.1
1251.7
Precipitacin Anual
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
P R E C I P I T A C I O NSAN GABRIEL (VC= 26%)
TEST
TEST DE TENDENCIA PRECIPITACION
ESTACION: San GabrielLATITUD: 0036'15" NLONGITUD: 7749'10" WALTITUD: 2860 m.
ORDENAOSERIESERIEORDEN(Y')(Y')Y"(Y")Yi-i(Yi-i)
iORIGINALORDENADAYi(Yi-Ymed)
11963768.5313.47-13169-39636
21964848.3347.210-10100-14196864
31965984.7597.1244162421441
41966972.0693.122243918324
51967941.2721.219-111114196
61968937.0729.818-24-1832412144
719691122.5768.536162561129841
819701120.2811.8351522586427729
919711038.9847.7277491832418324
101972847.7848.39-11121749-11
111973347.2858.02-1832411-981
121974313.4871.21-19361-24-11121
131975597.1886.33-17289-27729-10100
1419761085.7886.830101002562516256
151977721.2907.95-1522511-10100
161978693.1908.54-16256-25625-12144
1719791063.4912.6299811728912144
181980871.2937.012-864-11-636
191981886.3941.213-749-18324-636
2019821090.4946.031111211522511121
211983908.5954.516-416-17289-525
2219841098.5972.033131691625611121
231985912.6974.817-39-416-636
241986954.5984.72111636-39
251987907.91008.715-525-23529-10100
2619881264.61028.338183241832412144
271989946.01038.92000981-749
281990858.01053.911-981-39-17289
291991886.81063.414-636636-15225
301992811.81085.78-12144-15225-22484
311993974.81090.42339-39-864
3219941028.31093.62663620400-636
331995729.81098.56-14196-26676-27729
3419961093.61112.63212144-24-24
3519971112.61120.23414196636-11
3619981053.91122.52886439-864
3719991008.71251.725525-12144-12144
3820001251.71264.6371728930900-11
MEDIA=20SUMA=4579SUMA=7784SUMA=6764
TEST DE CORRELACION SERIALTEST DE TENDENCIA DE
SPEARMAN
R=687.00Rs=0.26
r=0.15
u(r)=1.08u(rs)=1.58
Tabla:0.1401Tabla:0.11142
DECISIONDECISION
NO EXISTE PERSISTENCIANO EXISTE TENDENCIA
M103
codigoannoENEFEBMARABRMAYJUNJULAGOSEPOCTNOVDICTOTAL MEDIA
M1031951209.8142.6131.469.616940.862.930.427.9126.9170.3169.61351.2112.6
M1031952131.7122.797.4108.144.754.642.537.616.633.683115.1887.674.0
M103195378.8102.496.18881.774.361.918.163.4304113.2134.21216.1101.3
M103195471.558.9134.4104.863.666.438.3100.931.6192.461233.31157.196.4
M1031955182.564124.663.558.766.563.940.724.981.699.2111.3981.481.8
M103195654.746.7116.8179.568.887.560.650.3106.7225.640179.41216.6101.4
M103195787.753.390.3132.3103.43082.8
1958
1959
1960
1961
M103196259.586.372.9
M103196397.9135.222.955.35268.323.38.411.589.2134.869.7768.564.0
M10319648.961.528.3129.33716731.360.647.675.475.2126.2848.370.7
M103196572.721.635.4117.293.930.656.157.992.8107.8162.1136.6984.782.1
M103196613.773.4102.766.22374.45638.741.6103.7145.1233.597281.0
M103196741.682.6158.568.528.586.95433.528.2106.1146106.8941.278.4
M103196849.8100.4122.6136.85074.878.527.263.6123.681.228.593778.1
M103196990.1113.864.6185.661.439.852.14789.8189.4108.780.21122.593.5
M103197088.5151.655.165.2119.785.253.383.770.5146.917525.51120.293.4
M1031971132.6104.3103.774.544.164.674.214.262.697.6201.165.41038.986.6
M1031972173.8104.573.8128.553.354.750.545.315.97567.84.6847.770.6
M10319732.66.21.339.251.930136.23.615.153.30.47.4347.228.9
M103197420.376.496.3105.55.49.5902.652.2
M103197562.5166.9164.1203.6994.1149.3
M103197667.7112.685.9203.472.444.845.44223.6114149.7124.21085.790.5
M103197734.953.553.897.75438.133.336.6110.63961.8107.9721.260.1
M10319785340101.9171.433.646.621.119.322.918.834.8129.7693.157.8
M103197953.453.8106.2186.464.735.833.168.948.891.9108.5211.91063.488.6
M103198053.7153.589.4126.642.841.818.422.433.8132.959.596.4871.272.6
M103198177.238178.770.564.435.838.333.526.434.1238.950.5886.373.9
M1031982147.3117.8141.1113109.69.779.735.360.878.866.5130.81090.490.9
M103198356.989.5141.2146.793.428.924.840.329.276.1101.580908.575.7
M1031984158.8103.1110.8163.7110.628.856.820.1101.6107.5116.120.61098.591.5
M1031985108.636.579.683.990.939.157.243.361.190.266.4155.8912.676.1
M103198656.2101.3203.4090.730.840.638.255199.5109.229.6954.579.5
M103198749.727.3127121.2185.534.748.324.751.9153.638.245.8907.975.7
M103198860.579.440.6138.985111.572.757.7116131.9220.6149.81264.6105.4
M1031989101.793.1152.947.783.3117.670.635.94786.345.464.594678.8
M103199038.7123.938.655.1108.576.495.628.427.6133.046.585.785871.5
M103199183.462.0105.4122.893.561.150.575.323.823.4107.278.4886.873.9
M103199276.564.454.670.499.831.673.267.581.923.976.591.5811.867.7
M103199351.693.2153.383.396.617.855.441.546.254.4171.9109.6974.881.2
M1031994140.662.0151.3148.967.444.437.980.338.362.3123.571.41028.385.7
M103199516.647.070.298.770.139.536.128.419.678.2156.668.8729.860.8
M1031996168.2125.6152.7119.7111.190.341.738.540.584.231.090.11093.691.1
M1031997226.056.3112.372.975.082.537.434.991.073.0160.990.41112.692.7
M103199830.743.373.285.295.132.756.1107.944.3309.1110.366.01053.987.8
M1031999126.4151.2200.4125.5145.3101.851.152.482.445.2150.2265.21497.1124.8
M1032000169.0158.7145.0141.2296.3107.839.634.545.954.421.737.61251.7104.3
Grfico1
762.8
767.2
622.6
655.3
855.4
1335.3
971.7
1014.4
396.8
947
616.2
659.8
1437.3
1746.7
566.5
1548
1854.8
608.4
688.5
413.2
750.7
888
668.1
4230.7
845.3
329.2
725.5
2061.4
495.9
930.8
539.9
634.5
1517
1456.3
669.6
453.1
748.8
3002.8
3441.6
1001.1
1121
4230,7
3341,6
Precipitacin anual
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
P R E C I P I T A C I O NGUAYAQUIL (VC=97%)
TEST
TEST DE TENDENCIA PRECIPITACION
ESTACION: GUAYAQUILLATITUD: 0209'12" SLONGITUD: 7953'00" WALTITUD: 5 m.
ORDENAOSERIESERIEORDEN(Y')(Y')Y"(Y")Yi-i(Yi-i)
iORIGINALORDENADAYi(Yi-Ymed)
11960762.8329.220-11-1119361
21961767.2396.821001112119361
31962622.6413.210-11121-24749
41963655.3453.112-981-11121864
51964855.4495.92324-86418324
619651335.3539.9311010041625625
71966971.7566.527636-2420400
819671014.4608.4298642772921441
91968396.8616.22-19361-24576-749
101969947.0622.6265251728916256
111970616.2634.59-12144-416-24
121971659.8655.313-864-1936111
1319721437.3659.83211121-41619361
1419731746.7668.136152252984122484
151974566.5669.67-14196-28784-864
1619751548.0688.53514196-2419361
1719761854.8725.537162562984120400
181977608.4748.88-13169-864-10100
191978688.5750.716-52513169-39
201979413.2762.83-18324-16256-17289
211980750.7767.219-24-525-24
221981888.0845.324391010024
231982668.1855.414-749-27729-981
2419834230.7888.041204001936117289
251984845.3930.8221121441-39
261985329.2947.01-20400-16256-25625
271986725.5971.717-416-21441-10100
2819872061.41001.1381728933108910100
291988495.91014.45-16256-20400-24576
301989930.81121.02541619361-525
311990539.91335.36-15225-525-25625
321991634.51437.311-10100-23529-21441
3319921517.01456.334131691111
3419931456.31517.0331214418324-11
351994669.61548.015-63611121-20400
361995453.11746.74-17289-14196-321024
371996748.81854.818-39-21441-19361
3819973002.82061.43918324-1111
3919983441.63002.840193611214411
4019991001.13441.628749-24-12144
4120001121.04230.73098110100-11121
MEDIA=21SUMA=5740SUMA=11366SUMA=9936
TEST DE CORRELACION SERIALTEST DE TENDENCIA DE
SPEARMAN
R=57.00Rs=0.13
r=0.01
u(r)=0.22u(rs)=0.85
Tabla:0.4129Tabla:0.3954
DECISIONDECISION
NO EXISTE PERSISTENCIANO EXISTE TENDENCIA
GRAFICO
GRAFICO
762.8
767.2
622.6
655.3
855.4
1335.3
971.7
1014.4
396.8
947
616.2
659.8
1437.3
1746.7
566.5
1548
1854.8
608.4
688.5
413.2
750.7
888
668.1
4230.7
845.3
329.2
725.5
2061.4
495.9
930.8
539.9
634.5
1517
1456.3
669.6
453.1
748.8
3002.8
3441.6
1001.1
1121
4230,7
3341,6
Precipitacin anual
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
P R E C I P I T A C I O NGUAYAQUIL (VC=97%)
M056RR
0.7554770931
0.369891624
0.2773693424
0.6602201628
0.3416335872
0.1677555063
1907
1908
0.762997377
1.041247884
1911
1912
1913
1914
1.3103828952
-0.9684910356
0.7347393403
0.8268058471
0.8331866941
0.4514753107
-0.2223877107
0.6194283194
0.6018809901
0.2447814452
3.8098518226
1.2126192036
-0.1335116274
1.0246121043
2.2688772706
0.750235683
0.4398530536
2.3199240466
1.7053117475
0.2188022824
-0.1494637449
0.4268634722
-0.970997797
-0.679985596
2.6713264068
0.269621171
1.5296105674
-0.6902405287
1.2664006284
0.3749051466
0.4797333474
-0.4705570817
0.5713440795
-0.2859682933
0.7110390514
-0.6154934637
-0.4664551087
-0.8825774884
1.8828360267
-1.1300631973
-0.3151378797
-0.4938015958
1.6116500289
1.1627118645
0.1773267768
-0.42087763
-0.4108505848
-0.7403757552
-0.6658565776
-0.209853904
0.8837776954
0.0551791341
0.152487051
-1.2549454887
-0.001109052
-0.7549605483
-0.6556016449
1.1162228363
1.8213064305
-0.8682205827
1.3684941805
2.0676527025
-0.772735765
-0.5901979631
-1.2175719563
-0.4484520046
-0.1355626139
-0.6366869913
7.4820292748
-0.2328705308
-1.4089973665
-0.5058796277
2.5384680566
-1.0291090822
-0.0380268097
-0.9288386292
-0.7132571554
1.2978490886
1.159521441
-0.6332686804
-1.1266448864
-0.4527818651
Precipitacin Estandarizada
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
PRECIPITACION ESTANDARIZADAGUAYAQUIL
5.8
M05619017199.5207.8154.8149.478.259.154.967.7182.165.988.61901127919010.7554770931
M0561902209.174.9134.7195.5108.526.7826.215.486.7101.7122.419021109.819020.369891624
M0561903139.285.8131.986.8130.540.51.29.690.9104.4120.412819031069.219030.2773693424
M0561904193.3172.8125.1263.2166.316.95.46.796.939.992.158.619041237.219040.6602201628
M056190519051097.4*19050.3416335872
M05619066374.8126.3245.6150.727.320.435.44411.763.6158.319061021.119060.1677555063
M056190719071907
M056190819081908
M0561909124.5288.9110.2207.8216.944.1024.628.9107.966.861.719091282.319090.762997377
M056191093.9106.1237.6172.3134.343.518.525.185.3282.8122.882.219101404.419101.041247884
M0561911168.444.6165.119111911
M056191219121912
M056191319131913
M056191419141914
M0561915436.1425.4366.2108.5113.437.6000011.923.419151522.519151.3103828952
M0561916160.6112.814442.930.213.200004.614.21916522.51916-0.9684910356
M0561917169.4236.5348.7441.431.8000014.2027.919171269.919170.7347393403
M056191885.8437.1173119.1137.7155.40058.223.40120.619181310.319180.8268058471
M0561919121.7486.9485.688.4109.51800000319191313.119190.8331866941
M0561920248.7222.2315219.549.800000090.419201145.619200.4514753107
M0561921301.8232.9136.4148.613.2000000171921849.91921-0.2223877107
M0561922378.5363.2221158.829.200000068.619221219.319220.6194283194
M0561923370.3381215.9159.819.60000006519231211.619230.6018809901
M0561924482.6130.8161.3215.912.73.80000047.819241054.919240.2447814452
M0561925539.8508489596.9187.3171.41900012.795.219252619.319253.8098518226
M0561926304.8412.8609.6120.625.46.400000019261479.619261.2126192036
M0561927203.2247.6368.325.419000025.4001927888.91927-0.1335116274
M0561928101.6400482.6133.412757.206.412.7031.844.419281397.119281.0246121043
M0561929330.2666.8520.7279.450.80000069.825.419291943.119292.2688772706
M0561930115.6489.2187.4184.257.43.8000324.120319301276.719300.750235683
M0561931183.4320.8302.8260.630.51.800008.132.519311140.519310.4398530536
M0561932507.2223.8515.9506148.631.500008.923.619321965.519322.3199240466
M0561933401.8482.8405.1386.117000030019331695.819331.7053117475
M0561934219.2296.2380.5137.74.15.800000019341043.519340.2188022824
M0561935153.2552.2151.49.900000015.21935881.91935-0.1494637449
M0561936274.3457.7188.2135.179.5000000019361134.819360.4268634722
M056193743.9201.22715.3000000001937521.41937-0.970997797
M056193847.8331.5182.480.83.80000002.81938649.11938-0.679985596
M0561939354.6458.2525.5570.2109.764.30000037.219392119.719392.6713264068
M0561940262.1271.8193.8198.4139.7000000019401065.819400.269621171
M0561941163.8122.9331.2412.53631260000099.319411618.719411.5296105674
M0561942170.7195.853.6167.147.5000004.85.11942644.61942-0.6902405287
M0561943155394.2486.8257.4284.80003516919431503.219431.2664006284
M0561944158.2241.8586.4101.74.64.100001.813.41944111219440.3749051466
M0561945438370.215190.74.506.7000096.91945115819450.4797333474
M0561946201.2227.4186.2100.721.300003.800.419467411946-0.4705570817
M0561947124.4351.84831391022131386119471198.219470.5713440795
M05619482972589714619100040019488221948-0.2859682933
M0561949247.7411.9274.528138.801.52.50.10.600.919491259.519490.7110390514
M0561950174.428011923.70.51000.80.20.8771950677.41950-0.6154934637
M0561951243.751.455.21007143.292.45077.566.41951742.81951-0.4664551087
M0561952162.4179.7111.3839.39.80003.51.10.11952560.21952-0.8825774884
M0561953155.5517.2387.5572.9131.53.8200.402.9019531773.719531.8828360267
M056195475.2168.9132.461.2000.10.801.8011.21954451.61954-1.1300631973
M0561955273.6215236.948.41.81.90000.30.530.81955809.21955-0.3151378797
M0561956259.3192.6176.582.816.60.20.2000.901.71956730.81956-0.4938015958
M0561957148337.1427.2580.3107.831.12.40000.320.519571654.719571.6116500289
M0561958202.2595.3319.6224114.40.200000219581457.719581.1627118645
M0561959210.4194.9277.5237.541.200000063.819591025.319590.1773267768
M0561960198.289.6356.872.333.9000.500.50111960762.81960-0.42087763
M0561961161.8319.8146.4130.912.4301.7000.21961767.21961-0.4108505848
M0561962169.6181.7167.950.348.42.70000021962622.61962-0.7403757552
M056196356.7295.219048.417.800000047.21963655.31963-0.6658565776
M0561964266.995.3299.1177.112.6400000.401964855.41964-0.209853904
M0561965122.8126.6433.7385.1207.514.7002.23.15.63419651335.319650.8837776954
M0561966530.9164.418545.714.81.700.1018.40.610.11966971.719660.0551791341
M0561967502365.1116.710.811.40000800.419671014.419670.152487051
M056196890.6137.7131.423.400.90001101.81968396.81968-1.2549454887
M056196962100.8415197.524.8126.60000020.319699471969-0.001109052
M0561970128.684.7100.7128.11641.300001.77.11970616.21970-0.7549605483
M05619719565.4429.5547.93.7001.600.62.11971659.81971-0.6556016449
M0561972226.4330.4446.9142.734.6151.6000.40.70.610319721437.319721.1162228363
M0561973701.3210.2491.6180.7135.52.905.52.70016.319731746.719731.8213064305
M0561974174.4123.781.384.169.30.3002.63.4324.41974566.51974-0.8682205827
M0561975221502.7609.6192.94.61.41.40.809.41.42.81975154819751.3684941805
M0561976403.8589.4451187.3141.29.20.3000072.619761854.819762.0676527025
M0561977162.3146.1216.9580.100020.90.903.21977608.41977-0.772735765
M056197896.9244.1176.768.939.400000062.51978688.51978-0.5901979631
M056197965.76478.2190.414.200.100.500.101979413.21979-1.2175719563
M056198093.268.4175.6378.829.81.40.3000.40.22.61980750.71980-0.4484520046
M0561981117.6399.4230.495.80.200.2000044.419818881981-0.1355626139
M0561982126.889.86.71614.10000.66.3152.3255.51982668.11982-0.6366869913
M0561983601.7539.4833.2604.3638.8612.2292.519.717.441.166.419834230.719837.4820292748
M056198413.5378.1194.5181.636.51.3000.20.7038.91984845.31984-0.2328705308
M056198569.792.412621.37.3000.100012.41985329.21985-1.4089973665
M056198638744.540.8163.52.400004.90.382.11986725.51986-0.5058796277
M0561987353.1753.3489.7372.245.230.42.90.40.9040.319872061.419872.5384680566
M0561988166146.36.9141.210.800.30002.4221988495.91988-1.0291090822
M0561989353148283.9136.91.25.2000.21.4101989930.81989-0.0380268097
M056199057.2220.9146.581.24.313.500.202.5013.61990539.91005.68666666671990-0.9288386292
M0561991119.5316113.11149.71.90.30001.721.31991634.5752.22958882171991-0.7132571554
M0561992183.3233.1397.6502.6154.641.52.20.2000.21.71992151719921.2978490886
M0561993174.1493.5217.7346.7131.50.40000092.419931456.319931.159521441
M0561994158.1131166.7115.6144.500020.477.31994669.61994-0.6332686804
M056199598.3196.5105.241.760.23.1000.31.50.31995453.11995-1.1266448864
M0561996111.4405.5162.262.20.50.2000015.81996748.81996-0.4527818651
199799.4289.8545.4249198.728.181.99.711.799.6556.2833.319973002.8
1998392.2721.1911.31137.6201.768.77.500001.519983441.6
199965.3388.6318.9157.714.41.9001.70.20.352.119991001.1
2000158.9198.6347.1244.7156.18.5000.505.21.420001121
0
51-80947.5
438.8132166725
136.8421052632
&A
Pgina &P
Grfico1
693.2
657.2
751.4
671.6
1044.2
909
942.5
1063.4
880.5
1064.7
845
903.9
996.7
935.9
918.4
611
555.1
1018.6
727.7
926.8
1016.3
1052.2
987.0954545455
761.4
921.9
905.1
979.6
1139.3
939.4
825.9
1150.2
1172.9
731.7
761.4
800.1
851.7
1202.7
1062.5
Precipitacin Anual
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
P R E C I P I T A C I O NLOJA (VC=12%)
M033RR
CODIGOANNOV01V02V03V04V05V06V07V08V09V10V11V12ANNOANNO
M033193055.765.7117.535.132.469.311.658.132.9129.397.237.31930742.11930-0.9529668227
M03319319955.273.8141.221.540.214.339.119.926.529.844.21931604.71931-1.8469798501
M0331932178.29767.61042028.46337.574.135.538166.11932909.419320.1355948911
M0331933117.351.382.1123.868.824.519.548.135.3107.557.91211933857.11933-0.204702644
M033193429.2146.2128.387.59678.299.184.738.692.76869.219341017.719340.8402645481
M033193573.729.155.372.61798.487.286.198.47763.393.11935851.21935-0.2430918497
M0331936107.449.9133.397.641.296.829.820.447.941.411.626.81936704.11936-1.2002193339
M033193725.846.552.366.951.3101.966.641.479.83077.766.21937706.41937-1.1852540503
M033193842.781.7129.3130.948.562108.759.645.887.417.322.41938836.31938-0.3400408607
M033193926.762.981.6107.177.8103.814.243.244.88.740701939680.81939-1.3518241632
M033194010136.282.188.956.820.559.275.85447.3101.241.91940764.91940-0.804615316
M033194169.2156155.182.472.78.436.151.920.410.252.149.21941763.71941-0.81242329
M033194232.175.558.4123.494.134.59.72064.14138.254.11942645.11942-1.5841113908
M033194363221.188.1103.72552.734.789.238.552.4120.9171943906.319430.1154242915
M0331944155.955.993.283.747.557.434.153.935714285749.607142857156.20714285716.6100.41944794.451944-0.6123439553
M033194519451945
M033194619461946
M033194719471947
M033194819481948
M033194910542.388.56854.863.827.53242.560.240.525.41949650.51949-1.5489755076
M033195029.5113122.968.532.583.959.851.730.340.425.181.21950738.81950-0.9744387513
M0331951120.470.890.965.533.718.540814.645.751.670.21951629.91951-1.6830123953
M033195283.776.665.636.332.733.37.425.22.564.844.486.61952559.11952-2.1436828635
M033195382.8112.8179.1129.453.555.96112.367.371.880.657.71953964.219530.4921590389
M033195435.665.8127.659.641.418.944.440.736.7107.728.793.41954700.51954-1.223643256
M0331955107.682.8130111.28848.456.245.532.823.158.676.21955860.41955-0.1832307154
M033195674.3132.8139.485.551.393.278.331.288.8114.326.172.11956987.319560.6424625391
M033195735.368.962.17846.151.987546.82530.82539.43756644.4570.351957640.2751957-1.6155059531
M033195819581958
M033195919591959
M033196019601960
M033196119611961
M033196219621962
M033196338.258.26075.537.360764.715.982.551.2133.71963693.21963-1.2711417648
M033196441.147.557.87328.567.923.455134.455.237.635.81964657.21964-1.5053809859
M033196549.835.82087100.162.637.858.294.344.597.3641965751.41965-0.8924550239
M033196674.943110.376.341.243.546.333.423.261.469.748.41966671.61966-1.4116852974
M0331967110.9142.8118.88240.8113.8124.1112.160.37011.856.819671044.219671.0126906414
M0331968107.660.8214.651.433.137.910730.999.678.847.340196890919680.1329922331
M033196976.4114.452.3123.456.258.818.5126.238.439.569.3169.11969942.519690.3509648417
M0331970209.3156115.830.564.216963.941.147.279.4434419701063.419701.137618226
M033197180119.5144.557.341.460.962.954.945.973.2401001971880.51971-0.0524471503
M0331972111116.6201.2104.662.455.3102.524.549.342.1111.983.319721064.719721.1460768646
M0331973119.4169119.160.652.258.375.541.833.422.843.149.819738451973-0.2834330489
M033197450.489.9133.111.928.762.7122.631.747.391.7126.1107.81974903.919740.0998083435
M033197578.3210.867.987.456.3109.472.595.442.194.462.819.41975996.719750.7036250024
M0331976106.5163.885.2130.944.478.963.3113.114.419.75659.71976935.919760.3080209845
M033197773.8120.6140.4152.531.39330.957.552.672.432.560.91977918.419770.1941546964
M033197850.950.4132.58.973.762.947.443.943.135.816.744.819786111978-1.8059879864
M033197943.145.3172.190.619.79.47.629.635.936.220.844.81979555.11979-2.1697094437
M0331980152.3131.7151.218042.754.728.826.922.478.662.486.919801018.619800.8461205286
M033198166.987.6104.264.118.118.630.923.67.2127.560.9118.11981727.71981-1.0466625112
M0331982112.849.4143.4146.978.311.327.521.943.8122.937.2131.41982926.819820.2488105147
M0331983139.7133.7220.278.968.727.752.213.337.294.112.3138.319831016.319830.831155245
M033198449.7210173.2101.257.48475.530.546.696.173.754.319841052.219841.0647438017
M033198554.2107.1272727273124.445454545585.2227272727150.519.943.16348.9101.379.9109.51985987.119850.6411316345
M033198646.7128.489.2121.24114.833.125.457.258.156.3901986761.41986-0.8273885736
M033198764.187.3115.4112.864.710.894.648.240.984.8126.671.71987921.919870.216927954
M0331988116.4143.984.9111.155.226.865.646.64573.870.665.21988905.119880.1076163175
M0331989159.2161.6205.347.66344.334.734.164.2130.114.820.71989979.619890.5923613724
M0331990131.7161.3142.8131.177.18343.833.227.185.4107.811519901139.319901.631472584
M0331991113.1153.519759.670.16439.261.930.96122.666.51991939.419910.3307942421
M033199283.5125.394.19757.647.750.415.739.447.1103.664.51992825.91992-0.407709969
M033199385.4105.4317.293.423.450.362.729.245.691.548198.119931150.219931.7023950148
M0331994213.877.6285.5123.354.153.881.569.33729.642.8104.619941172.919941.850095857
M033199559.88893.452.864.710.133.619.922.336.8129121.31995731.71995-1.020635931
M033199698.3126.9153.297.830.746.538.634.437.157.91327761.4
M033199768.1109.2101.269.946.220.750.235.24259.973.6123.9800.1
M033199840.4101.9136.288.551.275.249.535.731.4116.785.839.2851.7
M0331999124.3299.1132.283.7120.258.959.850.281.727.848.1116.71202.7
M0332000152.1178.2192.110581.883.836.950.367.731.625.457.61062.5
888.5605519481
153.6890356091
82.5842696629
106.7415730337
&A
Pgina &P
GRAFICO
GRAFICO
693.2
657.2
751.4
671.6
1044.2
909
942.5
1063.4
880.5
1064.7
845
903.9
996.7
935.9
918.4
611
555.1
1018.6
727.7
926.8
1016.3
1052.2
987.0954545455
761.4
921.9
905.1
979.6
1139.3
939.4
825.9
1150.2
1172.9
731.7
761.4
800.1
851.7
1202.7
1062.5
Precipitacin Anual
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
P R E C I P I T A C I O NLOJA (VC=12%)
TEST
-0.9529668227
-1.8469798501
0.1355948911
-0.204702644
0.8402645481
-0.2430918497
-1.2002193339
-1.1852540503
-0.3400408607
-1.3518241632
-0.804615316
-0.81242329
-1.5841113908
0.1154242915
-0.6123439553
1945
1946
1947
1948
-1.5489755076
-0.9744387513
-1.6830123953
-2.1436828635
0.4921590389
-1.223643256
-0.1832307154
0.6424625391
-1.6155059531
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
-1.2711417648
-1.5053809859
-0.8924550239
-1.4116852974
1.0126906414
0.1329922331
0.3509648417
1.137618226
-0.0524471503
1.1460768646
-0.2834330489
0.0998083435
0.7036250024
0.3080209845
0.1941546964
-1.8059879864
-2.1697094437
0.8461205286
-1.0466625112
0.2488105147
0.831155245
1.0647438017
0.6411316345
-0.8273885736
0.216927954
0.1076163175
0.5923613724
1.631472584
0.3307942421
-0.407709969
1.7023950148
1.850095857
-1.020635931
Precipitacin Estandarizada
TENDENCIA
Media Mvil (5 per.)
AOS
mm
PRECIPITACION ESTANDARIZADALOJA
TEST DE TENDENCIA PRECIPITACION
ESTACION: LOJA ARGELIALATITUD: 0402'11" SLONGITUD: 7912'04" WALTITUD: 2160 m.
ORDENAOSERIESERIEORDEN(Y')(Y')Y"(Y")Yi-i(Yi-i)
iORIGINALORDENADAYi(Yi-Ymed)
11963693.2555.15-1522524416
21964657.2611.03-17289-52511
31965751.4657.28-12144416525
41966671.6671.64-16256-2667600
519671044.2693.230101001214425625
61968909.0727.718-24-63612144
71969942.5731.724416-98117289
819701063.4751.433131691832425625
91971880.5761.415-525-19361636
1019721064.7761.434141962144124576
111973845.0800.113-749-3924
121974903.9825.916-416-11121416
131975996.7845.02774952514196
141976935.9851.7222439864
151977918.4880.519-1117289416
161978611.0903.92-1832411-14196
171979555.1905.11-19361-28784-16256
1819801018.6909.0299812352911121
191981727.7918.46-14196-15225-13169
201982926.8921.92111-74911
2119831016.3926.828864-39749
2219841052.2935.93111121525981
231985987.1939.4266361728939
241986761.4942.59-11121-11121-15225
251987921.9979.6200039-525
261988905.1987.117-39-864-981
271989979.6996.725525-10100-24
2819901139.31016.3351522512144749
291991939.41018.6233911121-636
301992825.91044.212-864-24576-18324
3119931150.21052.23616256-11525
3219941172.91062.5371728930900525
331995731.71063.47-13169-39-26676
341996761.41064.710-10100-11-24576
351997800.11139.311-981-39-24576
361998851.71150.214-636-24576-22484
3719991202.71172.9381832463611
3820001062.51202.7321214427729-636
MEDIA=20SUMA=4579SUMA=7868SUMA=6658
TEST DE CORRELACION SERIALTEST DE TENDENCIA DE
SPEARMAN
R=645.00Rs=0.27
r=0.14
u(r)=1.02u(rs)=1.65
Tabla:0.1539Tabla:0.099
DECISIONDECISION
NO EXISTE PERSISTENCIANO EXISTE TENDENCIA
-
Que esperamos en el siglo XXI ??IPCC. 20011.4 - 5.8 GC9 - 88 CMVariacin de precitacin ???
-
Ecuador ???Inundaciones y sequas ms frecuentesExtensin geogrficamalaria, dengue,cleraPerdida yretroceso glaciares.......IPCC. SigloXXI
-
2. Cual es la respuesta en Ecuador ?Proceso del Cambio Climtico en Ecuador
-
Evolucin proceso1992: adopcin de la CMNUCC1993-1994: Inicio del Proceso del Cambio Climtico en Ecuador:Objetivos, sectores estratgicos, contactos actores claves nac. e internacionales, bsqueda de apoyo internacional, preparacin de documentos bsicos, etc.1996 - :Ejecucin de proyectos1998 - 1999: creacion CNC2000.Primera Comunicacin Nacional CMNUCC
-
Objetivos del proceso
Instalar una capacidad bsicaAnalizar el C.C y sus posibles impactos en reas estratgicas.Definir alternativas de respuesta para la toma de decisionesCumplir con compromisos internacionales
-
Proyectos ejecutadosEstudio del Cambio Climtico en Ecuador (USA)Evaluacin en la Cuenca Baja del Guayas (Holanda)CC:TRAIN (UNITAR)Mitigacin Energtica (RISO Dinamarca)GEF-PNUD ECU/99/G31 Cambio Climtico (CNC -MA)GEF-PNUD ECU/99/G31 Fase II (CNC - MA)
-
Areas y sectores estudiados
-
Resultados en Mitigacin
-
Resultados en adaptacin
-
Respuesta nacionalComit Nacional sobre el Clima44 estudios con apoyo internacionalInstitucionalCientficoPoltica internacionalAdopcin/ratificacinCMNUCC y PK. Comunicacin Nacional
-
3. Cual es la Institucionalidad en el Pas ?
-
Evolucin institucional1993-1995 : INAMHI19951998: INAMHI CAAM Ministerio del Ambiente1998 en adelante: Comit Nacional sobre el Clima Ministerio del Ambiente
-
Comit Nacional sobre el ClimaGrupos sectoriales de trabajo Directorio Consejo Nacional de Desarrollo Sustentable
-
DirectorioMinisterio del Ambiente (presidente)Ministerio de Energa y MinasMinisterio de Relaciones ExterioresCmaras de la Produccin de la CostaCmaras de la Produccin de la SierraCEDENMACONESUPINAMHI (secretara permanente)
-
Marco de accin Polticas y estrategiasDesarrollo capacidad nacionalCambio y variabilidad climticaTratados internacionalesMercado del carbonoGrupos sectoriales de trabajo Sinergas cambio climtico, biodiversidad y desertificacinDifusin y educacinCooperacin internacional
-
Grupos sectoriales de trabajo Energa (MEM)Forestal (MA)Marino costero (Sub. Gestin Costera) Recursos hdricos (CNRH)Salud (Min. Salud)Ciencia y evidencias CC (INAMHI) Agricultura (MAG)Formacin capacidades (CONESUP) Grupos IPCC (INAMHI, MA, MEM)
-
4. Cual es el rol del Ministerio del Ambiente ?
-
Rol del Ministerio del Ambiente en Cambio ClimticoPresidente del CNCGrupo forestal/c. ClimaticoTransf. TecnologaInventario GEI: proces. Indust, desechos
Autoridad NacionalMDLPunto Focal GEFAutoridad Ambiental
-
5. Algunos resultados
-
ESCENARIOS DE CAMBIO CLIMATICO
ECC1: T = + 1.0 GC ; RR = - 15%ECC2: T = +1.0 GC ; RR = + 20%ECC3: T = + 2.0 GC ; RR = - 15%ECC2: T = +2.0 GC ; RR = + 20%
-
IMPACTOS EN EL SECTOR FORESTAL
Modelo de Holdrigue (zonas de vida)Escenarios de cambio climticoResultado:El incremento o decremento de las reas de las zonas de vida Luego de este anlisis se determin una zonificacion nacional de reas vulnerables al cambio climtico.ZONA A: Oro, Guayas y ManabZONA B: Region interandinaZONA C: Loja y parte de El Oro
-
Emisiones de GEI : 1990
Categoras de fuentes y emisiones de GEI
CO2
CH4
N2O
NOX
CO
COVNM
1. Total de la energa (quema de combustibles + emisiones fugitivas)
18.877,80
41,07
0,49
85,92
615,63
132,93
a. Quema de combustibles
18.877,80
20,18
0,49
85,92
615,63
132,93
b. Emisiones fugitivas de combustibles
20,89
2. Procesos industriales
1.150,00
3. Agricultura
398,39
0,07
2,69
62,89
4. Cambio del uso del suelo y silvicultura
45.543,14
60,67
0,42
15,08
530,89
5. Desperdicios
64,02
Total nacional de emisiones y remociones
65.570,94
564,15
0,98
103,69
1.209,41
132,93
-
Emisiones sectoriales de CO2: 1990
Grfico3
28.8
69.5
1.7
Hoja1
Energtico28.8
Uso del suelo y silvicultura69.5
Produccin de cemento1.7
Hoja1
0
0
0
Hoja2
Hoja3
-
Emisiones sectoriales de Metano: 1990
Chart4
7
70
11
12
Sheet1
Energtico56
Uso del suelo y silvicultura40.7
Produccin de cemento3.3
Energtico7
Agrcola70
Cambio en el uso del suelo y silvicultura11
Desperdicios12
Sheet1
0
0
0
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
Sheet3
MBD00032880.xls
Grfico3
50.9
43.88
5.22
Hoja1
VALORES:
ENERGTICO55.9
USO DEL SUELO Y SILVICULTURA40.7
PRODUCCIN DE CEMENTO3
99.6
100
ENERGTICO50.9
CAMBIO EN EL USO DEL SUELO Y SILVICULTURA43.88
AGRCOLA5.22
Hoja1
Hoja2
Hoja3
-
Formulacin de proyectos (?)Estudios & investigacinGeneracin de polticasAN-MDL(MA)CORDELIM
INSTITUCIONALIDAD ECUATORIANA
-
ESTRUCTURA AN-MDLInstancia representativa:Ministro del Ambiente: Presidente AN-MDL Instancia operativaCoordinador AN-MDLGrupo Evaluador:??
-
PROCEDIMIENTOS DE LA AN-MDLDocumento Proyecto en preparacin:
Carta de RespaldoDocumento Proyecto listo
Carta de Aprobacin
-
PROCEDIMIENTOS AN-MDL
Procedimiento Carta de Respaldo Proyectos MDL (29-IV-2003)Procedimiento Carta Aprobacin Proyectos MDL (energticos) (29-IV-2003)Procedimiento Carta Aprobacin Proyectos Pequea Escala (25-VI-03)
-
Responsabilidades Revisin tcnica bsica:Coordinador AN-MDL Evaluacin:Grupo EvaluadorAprobacin:Presidente AN-MDL (Ministro del Ambiente)
-
PAGINA WEB
www.ambiente.gov.ec/cambioclimatico/inicio.html/
-
Gracias