comparative regional economy : central asia, middle east and north africa

1

1Comparative Regional Economy: Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa

* Some parts of this note are borrowed from the references for teaching purpose only.1Comparative Regional Economy 12.04.30 Semester: Spring 2012 Time: Monday 2:00-5:00 pm Class Room: 115 Professor: Yoo Soo Hong Office Hour: By appointment Mobile: 010-4001-8060 E-mail: [email protected]. Central Asia2Central AsiaArmeniaGeorgiaAzerbaijanKazakhstanKyrgystanTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistan

32Physical Characteristics

1Georgia

Caucasus and Central Asia6

Population Density in Central Asia

Linguistic Geography of Central AsiaCentral and West Asia and North Africa: Major Features

- Dry climates and the Muslim faith dominate in this region.

- More than sixty percent of the world's oil reserves are found here.

- The Fertile Crescent was one the major domestication hearths extending from the Levant to the Persian Gulf. Crops originating here include figs, grapes, dates, and olives.

- Home to three of the world's major religions: Judaism, Christianity, and Islam.

- Water is the most important resource in the area and population is concentrated where water is found. Water is not only the basis for life, but for the social organization of the village.

- The Middle East is one of the world's shatterbelts and a focal point of conflict.Twelve countries in this region have populations of 10 million people or more.

Iran, Turkey, and Egypt have more than 60 million; Iraq, Afghanistan,Uzbekistan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Algeria have populations that range between 24 million and 32 million. These countries have populations that range between 10 million and 20 million: Syria, Yemen, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia.

Western Sahara, Qatar and Bahrain are the smallest countries in population with 0.3 million, 0.6 million and 0.7 million people, respectively.

CA: Introduction - Central Asia is a large, compact, landlocked region within the Eurasian landmass.

- Until 1991, other than the Soviet Union, the region contained only two countries, Mongolia and Afghanistan.

- Soviet Unions breakup added several more independent countries to the region.

- Historically, Central Asia has been weakly integrated into international trade networks.Geopolitical Framework: Political ReawakeningPartitioning of the Steppes

- Before 1500, Central Asia was a power center

- Mobile (horseback) armies threatened sedentary states

- Gunpowder and effective hand weapons changed the balance of power

- Russia and China gained control of the region Manchu (Chinese) conquest 1644 Russian Empire in the 1700s Concern over British influence in the area13 - Central Asia was dominated for many years by Russia and China.

- This region is now emerging as a separate entity.

- It has a rugged terrain, and was historically pastoral - Today, presence of fossil fuels is generating interest, but construction of pipelines is needed. - Collapse of political and economic systems in early 1990s

- Warfare, armed conflict have damaged economies and infrastructure.

- Afghanistan is especially troubled, and emerged as a focus of world interest in September 2001.

Development in Central Asia

Central Asia Under Communist Rule

Soviet Central Asia - Soviets inherited Russian Empires domain United territories together into Soviet Union Created a series of union republics (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan) Sowed the seeds of nationalism, nation-states

The Chinese Geopolitical Order - After China reemerged as a unified country in 1949, it reclaimed most of its old Central Asian territories Movement into Xinjiang and Tibet

Current Geopolitical Tension - Strife in Western China Repression of Tibet, and local opposition to Chinese rule Border of China and India still contested Chinese control of Xinjiang Uygur opposition War in Afghanistan before September 11, 2001

1978: Soviet-supported military revolutionary council seized power - Marxist government began to suppress religion - Russian invasion U.S. and Saudi support rebels Soviets withdrew in 1989War in Afghanistan before September 11, 2002 - 19951996 rise of the Taliban - Taliban founded by young Muslim religious students - Closely associated with the Pashtun ethnic group

Imposed an extreme interpretation of Islamic law consistent with Pashtun culture - Other Afghan ethnic groups opposed the Taliban - The Roles of Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey - Russia has armed forces in Tajikistan, and transportation routes cross Kazakhstan - Iran is a major trading partner, and offers access to ports - Pakistan supported Taliban; now supports the U.S. - Turkey has close cultural and linguistic connectionsIslamic Fundamentalism? - Many other Central Asian Nations were concerned that Islamic fundamentalism could affect their nations. - Islamic movement rose in Uzbekistan (IMU) - After September 11th balance of power shifted - U.S. with British assistance launched a war against al-Qaeda and the Taliban government. - Bombing campaign and support of Northern Alliance - Defeated the Taliban and began a process of forming a new Afghan governmen.t - Fighting continues, and U.S. forces remain in Afghanistan. International Dimensions of Central Asian Tension

Abundant Resources, Devastated Economies The Post-Communist Economies- Many Central Asian industries relied heavily on subsidies and oil from the Soviet Union.- Today, no Central Asian country could be considered prosperous. - Kazakstan is most developed- Uzbekistan has second-largest economy- Kyrgyzstan is aggressively privatizing former state-run industries- Turkmenistan has a large agricultural base- Tajikistan most troubled of former Soviet republics- Mongolia, industries not competitive enough in the global market, and it has a meager agricultural base The Post-Communist Economies (cont.)The Economy of Tibet and Xinjiang in Western ChinaChinese portions of Central Asia have fared better than the rest of the regionTibet is one of the worlds poorest places.Tibetans provide for most of their basic needs.Xinjiang has large mineral wealth and oil reserves and productive agriculture sector as wellEconomic misery in Afghanistan: It is the poorest country in the region with almost no economic development.Afghanistan suffered nearly continuous war starting in late 1970s.By 1999, it was the worlds largest producer of opium. Central Asian Economies in Global Context

- Overall, Central Asia is not well connected.

- Afghanistan is tied to the global economy through its export of illegal drugs.

- In former Soviet areas, most of the connections remain with Russia.

- Former Soviet republics are developing ties with Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and China.

- U.S. and other Western countries are drawn to the region by oil and natural gas deposits, but construction of pipelines is necessary.

GDP

COUNTRYGDP (bil. US$)Kazakhstan57.1Kyrgyz Republic2.5Tajikistan2.3Ukraine86.1Uzbekistan14.3Azerbaijan

13.2

Sources: The World Bank (2009)20GNI Per Capita

COUNTRYGDP (US$)Kazakhstan2,930Kyrgyz Republic450Tajikistan330Ukraine1,540Uzbekistan530Azerbaijan

1,270

Sources: The World Bank (2009)2121Openness and Major ExportsExports/ GDP(%)Major Exports

20062007Kazakhstan5149Oil, minerals, iron and steel, grainKyrgyz Rep4245Gold, cotton

Tajikistan2321Aluminum, cotton

Turkmenistan7263Gas, cotton

Uzbekistan3840Cotton, gold, gasSource: World Bank World Development Indicators22Southwestern AsiaArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgiaKazakhstanKyrgyzRepublicTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistanOil and gas exportersOil and gas importersCaucasus and Central Asia231999200020012002200320042005200620072008EstimateProjectionArmenia3.35.99.613.213.910.114.013.413.710.0Azerbaijan11.011.19.910.611.210.224.330.523.420.0Georgia3.01.94.75.511.15.99.69.412.08.0Ukraine-0.25.99.25.29.612.12.77.37.65.5Kazakhstan2.79.813.59.89.39.69.710.68.55.1KyrgyzRepublic3.75.45.30.07.07.0-0.23.18.26.8Mongolia3.21.11.04.05.910.17.38.69.98.6Tajikistan3.78.310.29.110.210.66.77.07.84.1Turkmenistan16.518.620.415.817.117.29.69.011.512.0Uzbekistan4.33.84.14.04.27.77.07.39.57.5South Caucasus & UkraineCentral AsiaEurasia: Growth in real GDP 1999-200824Business Environment in Eurasia Strong economic performance in both Central Asia and South Caucasus/ Ukraine regions

Wide economic growth disparities and fluctuations across countries

FDI levels and growth still relatively low- Average FDI per capita up to 6 times lower than South East Europe or CEE- Average FDI growth a third lower than regions like South East Europe- Limited FDI diversification in most countries

Need to improve business climate to attract investment and develop the private sector further251999200020012002200320042005200620072008EstimateProjectionArmenia12210470111121217252340455482Azerbaijan5101492991,0482,3532,351458-1,301-5,201-1,997Georgia62153801223354205291,1151,5851,400Ukraine4895947696981,4111,7117,5335,7379,2188,000Kazakhstan1,4681,2782,8612,1642,2135,4362,1236,6305,1004,680Kyrgyz Republic38-7-154613243182224167Mongolia34404378132129258290324688Tajikistan212410363227255667080Turkmenistan125131170276226354418731804820Uzbekistan1217583657018788195262311FDI Levels 1999-2007 (in US$ million)FDI increased 4 times for CA and time for SCUAverage annual growth rate of 20% since 1999 (23% for SCU, 18% for CA)SEE: 29% for the same periodSouth Caucasus & UkraineCentral AsiaSource: EBRD Transition report 200726

Savings (% of GNI, 2007)

CountryGross savingsConsumption of fixed capitalNet National SavingsAzerbaijan491038Kazakhstan321517Kyrgyz Republic12102Tajikistan47-3Ukraine261214Uzbekistan40833Source: The world Bank (Data& Statistics)27CompetitivenessBarriers to FDIHigh perception of risk for business transactions

Administrative barriers to foreign direct investment

Relatively weak institutional development, slow pace of economic, legal and institutional reforms (implementation gap)

Underdeveloped physical infrastructure

Weak regional cooperation, including limited intra-regional trade

Competitive AssetsEndowment in natural resources

Low cost and productive labor force

Process of internal and external liberalization, particularly under the European Neighborhood Policy

Macroeconomic stabilization, high growth rates and good prospects for the long term sustainable growth FDI in energy infrastructure as a catalyst forFDI in related sectors

28The Global Recessions Impact on CA

Kazakhstan, the country most integrated into the global economy and potentially most harmed by the global crisis, is the country best-prepared for negative financial and trade effects.

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have foregone economic benefits from global integration, but by the same token are relatively insulated from external shocks other than commodity prices.

The Kyrgyz Republic is in an intermediate position, but its major export commodity, gold, often does well during recessions and 2008-9 has been no exception.

A more significant transmission for the poorer countries is migration, and the direst negative impact is through the reduced flow of remittances to Tajikistan, the poorest country in the region.29Different Central Asian Economies Divergent Paths

- Despite strong similarities in culture, history and economic structure, their transitions from Soviet central planning ranged from the most rapidly liberalizing (the Kyrgyz Republic) to the most non-reforming (Turkmenistan) of all former Soviet republics.

- By the turn of the century, when the transition from central planning was essentially completed, the Central Asian countries had created vastly different economic systems. These differences had important implications for economic stability during the 1990s, for long-term growth prospects in the 2000s, and for the impact of the global economic crisis that gathered pace in 2008-9.

- The Central Asian countries are open economies in the sense that international trade is important, but they have all been suspicious of integration into the global economy and have embraced globalization to varying degrees.30Integrating Central Asia into the World EconomySource: OECD/IEA,(2007) China and India next to other Asian Pacific players will draw Central Eurasia into closer economic orbit diversifying oil and gas markets.

If this accords with internationally accepted governance norms and economic disciplines this trend will impose new rigor and business models on existing investment and trade patters.

Market rigidities characterize investment and trade patterns in todays Eurasian gas scene; fragility and fragmentation despite plentiful economic opportunities that are yet to be unlocked

Asian Pacific interests in Central Eurasia may prompt further Euro Atlantic investment to integrate Central Asian trade and investment flows globally with the Euro Atlantic as well as the Asian Pacific; the two global energy consumption growth poles.

31Globalization and Central AsiaOpen but not integrated Economy

Kazakhstan as the richest and most developed economy in the region has the most complex relations to globalization, but even there suspicion of losing autonomy (reflected in the slow progress of WTO accession negotiations) has limited the degree of globalization of the Kazakhstani economy.

The main channels of globalization, and hence for contagion from the global economic crisis, run through (1) the financial sector, (2) trade, and (3) migration and remittances. The last is important because hundreds of thousands of workers from Tajikistan and to a lesser extent the Kyrgyz and Uzbekistan are working abroad and their prospects will be directly influenced by economic conditions in Russia and elsewhere.

Trade and Openness

- The Central Asian countries have high export/GDP ratios except for Tajikistan whose ratio would be much higher if exports of labor services were included Despite efforts to diversify their economies by using revenues from energy, mineral or cotton exports or through import-substituting policies or other measures, the Central Asian countries exports remain heavily concentrated in a small number of commodities.

32US Interest in Central Asia

Collapse of the Soviet Union to 9/11

Revolved around the three broad themes of political and economic reform, security, and energy

Securing and dismantling nuclear stockpiles was the most pressing security concern

Promotion of democracy

Post 9/11

Stopping the threat of terrorism became the top priority for the US in Central Asia, and US secured bases in Central Asia to prepare for military actions against Afghanistan

US seeks to allow Central Asia to sell its energy at global market price, to help the region maintain its independence and to prevent Russia from establishing economic hegemony over Central Asia

33The period between September 11, 2001 and summer of 2003 marked the high point of US influence in Central Asia.

US influence began to decline in 2005 following the ejection of US forces from air base in Uzbekistan following US criticism of Uzbek authorities handling of the events in Andijon

US emphasis on democratization and its explicit links between political reform and economic aid have alienated many Central Asian leaders

Anti-American sentiment rose after American-led invasion of Iraq, perceived as American campaign against Islam

34Relationship between China, Russia, and Central Asia

Important trade partners

Russia remains Central Asias leading trade partner. Trade between China and Central Asia increased 10 times from $500 million in 1992 to $5 billion in 2004 (12 years)

Russia secured two agreements for natural gas pipeline in 2007 with three countries, doubling its imports of gas from Central Asia

Strategic Partners

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), mutual-security organization founded in 2001 by the leaders of 6 countries: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

Russias energy agreement provide it with increased leverage over Central Asia, as well as Europe.

35Caspian & Central Asian Oil Fast Forward On Its Own Momentum- East meets West in Kazakhstan- New western outlets in place new outlets reach towards China- Rising Central Asian oil production calls for more

Source: OECD/IEA (2007)36Central Asian Geopolitics

A Closer Look at the Speed Recovery

Real GDP Growth (percent change from a year earlier)38Per-capita Disposable Income to Recover by 2011...except in Armenia, Georgia, and the Kyrgyz Republic

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations.39Need to Tackle High and Rising NPLs in Some Countries

Nonperforming loans(Overdue by 90 days or more, unless otherwise noted; percent of total loans)Source: National authorities.Overdue by 60 days or more.Overdue from 1 day to 270 days.Overdue by 30 days or more.

Belarus-Kazakhstan-Russia Customs Union41Challenges Beyond the Crisis- Growth, development, and poverty reduction

- Fiscal and external sustainability

- Financial deepening and strengthening monetary policy instruments

42On the Back of High Oil Prices, the Recovery Continues43

Strong Fluctuations in Oil Sector GDP, Non-Oil Remains Steady44

CCA Economic OutlookThe region is being hit by external shocks. - Contraction in world economy, esp. Russia - Declining commodity prices - Drying-up of capital inflows

Current account positions have weakened

Fiscal balances are worsening, and public debt is rising Growth will drop sharply in 2009 and recover gradually in 2010

Inflation is falling45Capital Inflows Are Drying Up.

Net Private Capital Flows (In percent of GDP)46Current Account PositionsCurrent Account Balance(In percent of GDP)Gross International Reserves 1/1/ March 2009 data includes SBA purchases of $249 million (Armenia) and $250 million (Georgia).

4748Growth in the RegionReal GDP Growth (In percent)

4849Recovering Slowly in 2010

Real GDP Growth(Annual percentage change)49Caspian Oil Production Growth and Diversity Caspian provides bullish growth, Complements stable MENA and Russian volume with incremental volume and added diversity

kb/dSource: OECD/IEA,(2007)50II. Middle East or MENA51

ME and NA Region52Middle East and North Africa - The Middle East and Africa forms a huge economic zone with a total population of some1.1billion people (2005).

- When the global economy was hit by an upsurge in resource prices, Middle East and African countries have attracted attention from around the world for their rich reserves of crude oil, rare metal and other natural resources.

- The income level in the region as measured by per-capita nominal GDP widely varies from country to country.

- The population growth rate is high across the region, with most countries continuing to post annual growth around 2%.

- The employment situation in the region is severe, and the unemployment rate is far above 10% in most African countries and in some oil-producing Middle East countries.

53Arab World Economies by Stage of Development54

Gulf Economies in the Global Competitiveness Ranking55

Source: Arab World Competitiveness Report 2011-2012Levantine Economies in the Global Competitiveness Ranking56

Source: Arab World Competitiveness Report 2011-2012A Diverse Region: Three Major Country Groupings - Resource-poor, labor-abundant (RPLA) or emerging economies: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, West Bank and Gaza Population: 124 Mill. GDP: $US 225 billions

- Resource-rich, labor-abundant (RRLA) or transition economies: Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen Population: 168 Mill. GDP: $US 400 billions

- Resource-rich, labor-importing (RRLI) or rich economies: GCC (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) +Libya Population: 40 Mill. GDP: $US 666 billions5757Data for 2005RRLIRRLARPLATotalPopulation, Mill.40168124332GDP B. $US6664002251292GDP per capita ($2005 Value)

5858 RRRLI RRLA RPLA TotalPopulation, Mill.40168124332GDP B. $US 666 400 225 1292GDP B. $US PPP94211446012689GDP/Cap. $US16638237718223889GDP/Cap $ US PPP23550680048588095Min GDP/capita10882227619641964Max GDP/Capita6868510692646068685

GDP per capita ($PPP2005 Value)

5959RRLIRRLARPLATotalMin 10882227619641964 Libya Yemen Djibouti DjiboutiAverage23550680048588095Max 68685106921021168685 Qatar Iran Lebanon Qatar Dramatic Poverty Reduction and Low Absolute Poverty

6060The decline in the poverty rates has been dramatic in the region, especially during the 1960s and 1970s.

Limited data before the 1980s: Tunisia 1965 51% 1985 16%($2/day) Egypt 1975 82% 1990: 43%

Decline continued even during the 1980s, but stagnated afterwards Varied Across Sub-regions and CountriesGDP per capita growth in the MENA region-6-4-20246RRLIRRLARPLA1970s1980s1990s2000s61ME Countries Economic Indicators Real GDP Growth RateConsumer PriceCurrent Account/GDP200720082009e2010f200720082009e2010f200720082009e2010fMiddle east6.25.42.04.211.215.08.36.618.118.32.67.9Oil producing6.04.91.34.211.815.87.06.321.521.84.010.4Iran7.82.51.52.218.425.412.010.011.96.73.03.6Saudi Arabia3.34.4-0.94.04.19.94.54.024.328.64.111.4UAE6.37.4-0.22.411.112.32.53.316.115.7-1.65.2Kuwait2.56.3-1.53.35.510.54.64.444.744.729.435.3Non oil producing6.87.04.54.49.112.313.07.5-1.6-2.7-4.1-4.4Egypt7.17.24.74.511.011.716.28.51.90.5-2.4-2.8Syria4.25.23.04.24.715.27.56.0-3.3-4.0-3.2-4.3Jordan8.97.93.04.05.414.90.24.0-17.2-11.3-10.0-8.8Lebanon7.58.57.04.04.110.82.53.5-6.8-11.6-11.3-10.5Israel5.24.0-0.12.40.54.63.62.02.81.03.22.4%Note: e means estimation, f means forecast Source: IMF.62SSA Countries Economic Indicators Real GDP Growth RateConsumer PriceCurrent Account/GDP200720082009e2010f200720082009e2010f200720082009e2010fSub Sahara7.05.51.34.16.811.910.57.30.20.2-3.7-2.7North East10.48.75.46.011.218.721.07.4-10.1-8.1-9.0-9.2Ethiopia11.511.67.57.015.825.336.45.1-4.5-5.6-5.6-9.3Sudan10.26.84.05.58.014.311.09.0-12.5-9.0-11.2-9.1Central7.35.84.35.19.111.914.98.2-4.8-8.1-8.9-9.4Congo D.R.6.36.22.75.416.718.039.214.6-1.5-15.3-14.6-23.7Kenya7.11.72.54.09.813.112.07.8-4.1-6.8-8.1-6.3Tanzania7.17.45.05.67.010.310.64.9-9.0-9.7-9.9-9.1Uganda8.49.07.06.06.87.314.210.8-3.1-3.2-5.5-5.7South11.68.50.06.17.612.611.010.86.30.2-6.3-3.8Angola20.313.20.29.312.212.514.015.415.97.5-3.42.2Zimbabwe-6.9-14.13.76.0-72.7156.29.012.0-10.7-29.5-21.4-19.9Middle west5.85.32.64.44.510.18.86.68.09.31.44.3Ghana5.77.34.55.010.716.518.510.2-12.0-18.7-12.7-15.4Nigeria7.06.02.95.05.411.612.08.8-18.820.46.913.8South Africa5.13.1-2.21.77.111.57.26.2-7.3-7.4-5.0-6.5Non oil producing5.34.71.43.36.310.88.95.7-5.2-7.1-5.7-7.3Oil producing7.86.12.25.15.59.49.47.814.814.90.96.2Note: e means estimation, f means forecast Source: IMF.%63Real GDP Growth in MENA

SyriaEgyptSaudi Arabia

TunisiaAlgeria Real GDP Growth in MENA(Year) Source: MSRC( IMF)64GDP per capita in MENA

GDP per capita in MENA Yemen Egypt Syria Tunisia Algeria Saudi Kuwait Qatar Arabia

Source: IMF( Estimation 2010)

0(1000 dollars)65

Major Oil Producing Countries (2009)Major Oil Producing CountriesRussiaSaudi ArabiaUSIranChinaCanadaMexicoUAEIraqKuwaitVenezuelaNorwayNigeriaBrazilAlgeriaQatarOmanEgyptSudanSyriaYemenTunisia

Source: BP0 (million barrel/day)66Current Balance and Fiscal Balance in MENA countries

Yemen Tunisia Syria Egypt Algeria Saudi Qatar Kuwait Arabia


Current Balance: MENAFiscal Balance: MENA Algeria Egypt Yemen Syria Tunisia Saudi Qatar Kuwait Arabia


GDPGDP67FDI in MENA Countries

Saudi ArabiaTurkeyUAEEgyptQatarLebanonLibyaSudanJordanIranOmanMoroccoTunisiaAlgeriaBarrenSyriaIraqYemenKuwait FDI in MENA Countries(billion dollars)Source: MSRC( based on UN reports 2005-2009 )68Demographic Changes in the World

Africa6970Economic Growth and EmploymentCountriesReal GDP Growth Employment Growth1999-2008 annual average %1999-2008 annual average. %Tunisia4.81.2Egypt4.62.5Jordan6.95.2Algeria4.24.0 Yemen4.0 4.5Saudi Arabia4.0 3.0 UAE7.42.9Kuwait7.72.8Barren6.42.8Qatar-3.2Oman4.43.4 Source: IDB71Share of Proven Oil and Natural Gas Reserves by Region

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (BP)72Economic Situation - The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), having relatively high per-capita GDP due to crude oil export revenues, are promoting industrial diversification. - In African countries, whose main industry used to be agriculture, the amount of per-capita crop production was low compared with the rest of the world despite the fact that a majority of African people lived in rural areas; consequently, their economic growth remained slack. - Since the upsurge in resource prices, not only developed countries but also emerging economies like China and Russia have made active investment in resource development in Africa and, as a result, an increasing number of African countries have shifted from an economic structures dependent on agriculture to one centering on the development and export of natural resources and achieved rapid economic growth. - The plunge in resource and food prices and the global financial crisis since the latter half of 2008 have posed a serious challenge for the economies of Middle East and African countries, which had been developing steadily, by shrinking the inflow of foreign and causing a drop in export revenues.

73III. North Africa74Real GDP Growth in Middle East and African Countries

Middle East/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaSource: World Economic Outlook Database April 201075

Real GDP Growth of Oil Exporters and Oil Importers

Source: World Economic Outlook Database April 201076Fiscal Net Lending/Borrowing and Government Debt

Source: World Economic Outlook Database April 201077West Asia (including GCC): FDI Inflows(Value and Percentage of Gross Fixed Capital Formation,1995-2008)

Note: GCC(United Arab Emirates, The Kingdom of Bahrain, The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, The Sultanate of Oman, Qatar, Kuwait) 78Africa: FDI Inflows(Value and Percentage of Gross Fixed Capital Formation,1995-2008)

79FDI: Policy Development - Since the late 1990s, there have been continuous legal reforms towards liberalization in West Asian countries (including regulations governing the status of foreign firms), with the new legal environment becoming more favorable to foreign investors. Changes have included more liberal entry, fewer performance requirements, more incentives, and more guarantees and protection for investors. The number of activities in which FDI is barred or restricted has been reduced, especially in the manufacturing sector, but also, increasing, in natural resources and services. This liberalization trend continued in 2008, with relevant policy measures implemented in a number of countries.

- In Saudi Arabia, the business visa requirements have been eased and visas can be issued not only through Saudi embassies but also Chambers of Commerce. In order to facilitate foreign investments into Saudi Arabia, the Government set up 2 new one-stop-shop offices and allowed the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority offices abroad to issue investment licenses to foreigners.

- Kuwait, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Oman and Turkey also have been liberalizing.

80FDI: ProspectsFall In Inflows, but A Possible Rise In Outflows

- FDI inflows to West Asia are expected to fall in 2009 as the impacts of the ongoing global economic and financial crisis cause a further drop in international trade and in key revenue sources, as well as a continued tightening of credit markets for investment projects. Preliminary data show a strong reduction in net cross-border M&A sales in West Asia during the first half of 2009 (table II.12).60 However, accumulated reserves and brighter prospects for oil prices could have a positive effect on FDI to West Asia in the medium term.

- According to UNCTADs World Investment Prospects Survey 20092011, FDI prospects in West Asia seem more favourable than those reported in the previous survey. Of the total respondents to the latest survey, 45% expected an increase in FDI during the period 20092011 (compared with 32% for the period 20082010 of the previous survey), 47% expected no change (compared with 67%), and 8% expected a decline (compared with almost no respondents in the previous survey) (figure II.15).81 - Outward FDI flows from West Asian countries, largely originating from GCC countries, are expected to increase, as the global economic and financial crisis offers new investment opportunities for cash rich companies and investment funds. They can take advantage of their relatively strong financial position to buy companies weakened by tight credit markets at discount prices.

- Some of them have already begun to make acquisitions that support their national economic development objectives. Particularly active in doing so is the Government of the Abu Dhabi Emirate.

- In addition, some of them are planning to expand their operations abroad.82Development of Manufacturing Industry in North AfricaNorth African countries are notable in that: they have relatively high per-capita GDP compared with sub-Saharan countries; are geographically close to Europe, being located on the opposite site of the Mediterranean Sea; and have a gradually-developing manufacturing industry.

For North African countries, whose main industries used to be natural resources and agriculture, industrial diversification was a challenge.

However, their manufacturing industry is now developing. This is presumably supported by the fact that the wages in North African Countries are regarded as relatively low amid the rising waged in Eastern Europe. From the trend in imports by Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Ethiopia and Algeria, it is clear that their imports of machinery have increased significantly, suggesting that the manufacturing industry is these countries is gradually growing.

83

Comparison of wage level in East Europe and AfricaChanges in Machinery Imports of Five Countries in Africa

84Improvement of Business Environment in North AfricaIn North African countries, the business environment is also improving gradually. In the global rankings of countries in terms of business friendliness included in Doing Business in the Arab World 2009 , a report complied by the World Bank, even Tunisia, the highest-ranked country in North Africa, is placed as low as 72nd. However, the business environment in the region is improving, as exemplified by the reduction of the corporate tax rate from 35% to 30% in Morocco in 2008 and the abolition of the minimum paid-in capital for limited liability companies in Tunisia.

North African countries are trying to achieve market integration through FTAs with the United States, European countries and GAFTA and increase their attractiveness as a base for exports to their FTA partner countries.

85

Number of Cell Phone Subscription in the World

86Political Economy in MENA

Slow and Hesitant Transformation to A New Social Contract since the 1980s

From public sector to private sector driven: Emergence of private sector

More open economies: slow external liberalization

Towards more liberalization and deregulation of markets

More diversified economies

Continuation of many old redistributive policies (subsidies)

Continued limited political voice and participation

8787Failure to Meet Many Critical Challenges Requires Deeper Institutional Change - Employment challenge

- Higher expectations by a younger and more educated population

- Pressures of globalization

- Critical water and environmental challenges

Critical Institutions which Need to ChangeTransition to institutions with less prevalence of personal exchange both in the political and economic domains

Economic institutions with strong private property rights, less rent-seeking, more open markets, rules-based government regulation and intervention

Political institutions with greater voice and accountability

88Political Power in MENA89

Various Risks the Instability in Egypt Brings to the RegionCurrent situation in EgyptCurrent situation in Middle East and North AfricaSpread of Egyptian problem and geopolitical riskPolitical Issues-Military regime gained national support and took power after the 1967 Six-Day War-But, increasing discontent with Mubaraks human right and undemocratic practices-Strong discontent toward prolonged dictatorships -Increasing number of demonstrations spurred by information exchanges on the Internet-Additional democratic and human rights movements are expected-Fierce fight for political power will lead to political instabilityEconomic Issues-High unemployment rate and inflation-Economic stagnation and reduced capital inflow, incomplete economic reform led to high unemployment- High inflation due to high dependence on imported food-Most countries in the region are suffering from high unemployment and inflation rate-Countries without oil are additionally suffering from job creation and adequate welfare system -Political instability will lead to stagnation in the economic reform-Investment from abroad will decrease due to the instability

Foreign affairs Issues-peace treaty with Israel (79), ally with Israel and USA-contributed to peace in the Middle East by acting as liaison between Arabic nations, USA, and Israel-Israel, Saudi Arabia are main US allies in the region-While many countries are anti-USA and anti-Israel-Changes in Egyptian foreign policies toward Israel could increase the tension between Arabic nations and IsraelTerrorism and Security-Effort to fight Radical Islamic forces and terrorism-Collapse of dictatorship regimes will weaken the anti-terrorism efforts and pose threat to national security90Authoritarian Regime DilemmaBenefits from stronger private sector: more growth, greater wealth base to tax, ability to redistribute and satisfy supporters, minimize contestation

Accrual of these benefits requires: inclusive broad-based private sector, limits on rulers discretion

Risks to rulers: greater ability of private sector to organize and revolt against ruler9191 Improving Governance will be Critical to Move Forward on More Difficult Reforms

Regions inability to tackle deeper and more complex reforms points to limitations of top-down approach of reform by decree

Deeper economic reform cannot proceed without reform of incentive structures in which reforms are embedded

Governance reforms cannot be viewed as a separate agenda, to be pursued at its own pace, but integral to all other reforms.9292IV. Comparison93Regional Comparison: SA and CA

Endowments and Economy

CA is blessed with abundant valuable natural resources and agriculture whereas SA is agricultural resources. CA is land-locked and has broad desert areas. However, it is an important mediator in the ( old and new) Silk-road. SA is also a geographic mediator between Europe and East Asia.

CA is faster in indusrialization than SA. Economic partners of CA are more diversified.

In the long-run, SA will develop better than CA, because it has more manpower and locational advantages.

Political Economy

SA has more diversified culture and political regimes than CA. SA is more democratic.

CA should attain a balance between national independece (e.g. the meaning of CIS) and peaceful international relations with super powers such as Russia, EU, China and US.

SA should strengthen economic relations with East Asia.

94Comparison of Political Economy of SA and CACentral AsiaSouth AsiaPolityPresidency, RepublicPresidency, Republic (Some Kingdoms)GovernmentStrong authoritarianAuthoritarian Democratic, Kings ruleNatural ResourcesOil, MineralAgricultural Population40 million persons1.4 billion personsHuman ResourcesSkewedSkewedRecent GDP growth rate8%6%GDP per capita Kazakhstan: $3000, Rest: PoorPoor ($ 700)Industrial StructureFrom primary to manufacturingAgriculture dominantExportPrimary products(oil, gas, minerals), light products, agricultural productsAgricultural products, manufacturing products, s/wInternational RelationsRussia, China, USEast and South Asia, US, China95FDI in Emerging Countries

ChinaLatin AmericaMiddle EastSouth East AsiaNorth Africa Source: MSRC( based on UN reports ) FDI in Emerging Countries(billion dollars)(Year)96The Unemployment Rate in MENA

The Unemployment Rate in MENA Source: MSRC( IMF)(Year)JordanTunisiaSyriaSaudi ArabiaEgypt97Major Wheat Exporting and Importing Countries in the World

CanadaEuropeArgentinaRussiaChinaIndiaBrazilMiddle EastSouth East AsiaNorth Africa (million ton)Note: Estimation 2010-2011 Source: United States Department of CommerceMajor Wheat Exporting and Importing Countries Over Imports Over Exports 9899

SWOT Analysis of ME100

Growth Performance by RegionEgypt and Arab Rep. at Glance:Poverty and Social

101Egypt and Arab Rep. at Glance:Key Economic Ratios and Long-term Trends

102Egypt and Arab Rep. at Glance: Structure of the Economy

103Economic Growth: Mediocre and Volatile GDP per capita growth I MENA and other regions(percent)-2-1012345678East Asia &PacificEurope &Central AsiaLatin America& CaribbeanSouth AsiaSub-SaharanAfricaMiddle East &North Africa1970s1980s1990s2000s104104Corruption Perceptions Index in 2010RankingCountryScoreRankingCountryScore1Denmark9.350Jordan4.71New Zealand9.350Saudi Arabia4.71Singapore9.354Kuwait4.54Finland9.259Tunisia4.34Sweden9.285Morocco3.46Canada8.998Egypt3.17Holland8.8105Algeria2.98Australia8.7127Lebanon2.58Switzerland8.7127Syria2.519Qatar7.7146Iran2.228UAE6.3146Libya2.230Israel6.1146Yemen2.241Oman5.3172Sudan1.648Bahrain4.9175Iraq1.5Note: A higher score means less (perceived) corruption. CPI 2010 is based on13 independent survey .Source: Transparency International105ReferencesADB. 2009. The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review Asian Development Bank(Google, PDF)

Blank, Stephen. 2008. The Strategic Importance of Central Asia: An American View. Parameters.

Geiger, Rainer. 2008. OECD Eurasia Competitiveness Programme. OECD.

Kelegama, S. and K. Pankh. Political Economy of Growth and Reforms in South Asia.

Richard Pomfret. 2009. Central Asia and the Global Economic Crisis. EUCAM: EU-Central Asia monitoring.(Google, PDF)

Figures for Central Asia from The World Bank http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTDATASTA/0,,contentMDK:21055287~menuPK:2998911~pagePK:64168445~piPK:64168309~theSitePK:2875751,00.html

Tajikistan information http://www.worldbank.org.kz/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/KAZAKHSTANEXTN/0,,menuPK:361879~pagePK:141132~piPK:141107~theSitePK:361869,00.html

106Bongaarts, John. n.a. Demography of the Middle East. (PPT)

Nabli, Mustapha K. 2008. Institutional Change and Development in the Middle East and North Africa. (PPT, google)107Chart1-0.5769430772-2.6325039591-4.1008954496-0.92223919374.76568503232.63886566431.65179013885.06053973724.21982394662.3126029751.69490760054.5484279119

WorldUnited StatesEuropeEmerging Markets excluding India and China

Sheet1WorldUnited StatesEuropeEmerging Markets excluding India and China2009-0.5769430772-2.6325039591-4.1008954496-0.922239193720104.76568503232.63886566431.65179013885.060539737220114.21982394662.3126029751.69490760054.5484279119

Chart11727.09080747771403.00500055711580.99015373983380.6308973862558.8360152719452.220245871550.41800324392264.31160161382172.08868334181920.87329053784566.139104481677.0421718972578.9042355606658.29886757493232.55553147273296.39289320392491.42979383425657.1343731353909.0093877627807.0801776753855.34949446184103.29022311364738.99750537943141.3287341047394.62492411091210.1616890411173.86128518691100.64024463952914.86941210554491.28853860172634.56832334836108.61388036541028.86839677581022.89185430161207.84548520443006.13180023345429.74530666492759.28091244627254.57058751641002.66158478841166.45634780521378.12118382553047.94465281946046.43270851452885.57594680988372.52911894041069.77388645771266.89339728861500.0963221084

Gross national disposable income per capita; U.S. dollarsARMAZEGEOKAZKGZTJKUZB

Sheet1ARMAZEGEOKAZKGZTJKUZB20051727140315813381559452550200622642172192145666775796582007323332962491565790980785520084103473931417395121011741101200929154491263561091029102312082010300654302759725510031166137820113048604628868373107012671500

Chart13.26931795033.51754633343.85.221.225.80.10.10.231.21.94.39998857824.84.84.11938247616.375.27371034388.213.75.410.413.5

200820092010 (latest)

Sheet1200820092010 (latest)AZE3.33.53.8KAZ5.221.225.8TKM0.10.10.2UZB3.01.21.9ARM4.44.84.8GEO4.16.37.0KGZ5.38.213.7TJK5.410.413.5To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

Chart316638237718222355068004858

RRLIRRLARPLA

PPP GDPCountry NameCountry CodePC.PP.CDPP.CDCDPC.CDPOPAlgeriaDZA6062.281.99E+111.02E+11309832900000BahrainBHR27235.51366202240302571338031914918019.15149742561DjiboutiDJI1964.4560441473342033702055445.2936.073927750000Egypt, Arab Rep. (AFR)EG25048.6954863.53E+11988311876921411.8741170000000Iran, Islamic Rep.IRN10692.159657.35E+112.19E+113190.43238768700000IraqIRQ3199.82730189476668420339380038021213.67673927962968JordanJOR4293.53078923498494007126114582652304.3044525473000KuwaitKWT44946.546981.10E+118079840231132881.543252457257LebanonLBN10211.9200538346106999215582089555741.1488033755034LibyaLBY10882.96642094640004153600000070405900000MoroccoMAR3547.4499191.07E+11589564577161952.0713130202000OmanOMN20333.66459510171644553083383977112289.294452509000QatarQAT68695.85598558388769634211263736351809.13063812842Saudi ArabiaSAU21219.78264.91E+113.15E+1113639.7399823118994Syrian Arab RepublicSYR4059.14102275045399219283787303411534.98108718488000TunisiaTUN6460.63988764793757431290389816302895.5012110029000United Arab EmiratesARE33483.991.51E+111.42E+11316014500000West Bank and GazaWBG3586.9912913164000398520000011073600000Yemen, Rep.YEM2276.2789184617206888516761576638826.344247820284012Expenditures per capita (current international $, PPP term)Expenditures (current international $, PPP term)Expenditures (current US$, XR term)Expenditures per capita (current US$, XR term)PopulationTotal8095.6803282.69E+121.29E+123889.618201332184668DjiboutiDJI1964.4560441473342033702055445.2936.073927750000Egypt, Arab Rep. (AFR)EG25048.6954863.53E+11988311876921411.8741170000000JordanJOR4293.53078923498494007126114582652304.3044525473000LebanonLBN10211.9200538346106999215582089555741.1488033755034MoroccoMAR3547.4499191.07E+11589564577161952.0713130202000TunisiaTUN6460.63988764793757431290389816302895.5012110029000West Bank and GazaWBG3586.9912913164000398520000011073600000RPLA4858.8831656.02E+112.26E+111822.835882123809034AlgeriaDZA6062.281.99E+111.02E+11309832900000Iran, Islamic Rep.IRN10692.159657.35E+112.19E+113190.43238768700000IraqIRQ3199.82730189476668420339380038021213.67673927962968Syrian Arab RepublicSYR4059.14102275045399219283787303411534.98108718488000Yemen, Rep.YEM2276.2789184617206888516761576638826.344247820284012RRLA6800.0989251.14E+124.00E+112377.31466168334980BahrainBHR27235.51366202240302571338031914918019.15149742561KuwaitKWT44946.546981.10E+118079840231132881.543252457257LibyaLBY10882.96642094640004153600000070405900000OmanOMN20333.66459510171644553083383977112289.294452509000QatarQAT68695.85598558388769634211263736351809.13063812842Saudi ArabiaSAU21219.78264.91E+113.15E+1113639.7399823118994United Arab EmiratesARE33483.991.51E+111.42E+11316014500000RRLI23550.882429.43E+116.66E+1116638.1589440040654Total2.69E+121.29E+123321846680

GDPCRRLIRRLARPLATotalPopulation, Mill.40168124332GDP B. $US6664002251292GDP B. $US PPP94211446012689GDP/Cap. $US16638237718223889GDP/Cap $ US PPP23550680048588095RRLIRRLARPLATotalMin10882227619641964Average23550680048588095Max68685106921021168685

GDPCh1

GDPCh116638237718222355068004858

RRLIRRLARPLA

GDPCh2

GDPCh210882235506868522766800106921964485810211

MinAverageMax

PovertyMENA regionAll regionsMENA regionAll regions19818.652198128.769.419846.847.1198424.967.619876.941.819872564.119905.441.619902263.119935.238.9199321.961.419965.334.8199622.358.419995.833.7199923.757.120024.731200219.653.620054.625.720051947.6

Poverty

All regions - % of people living below $1.25 a dayMENA region - % of people living below $1.25 a dayMENA region - % of people living below $2 a dayAll regions - % of people living below $2 a dayBreakdown of Headcount Index for MENA and International Poverty Lines of $1.25 and $2 a day over 1981-2005

PopGDP8.65219816.847.119846.941.819875.441.619905.238.919935.334.819965.833.719994.73120024.625.72005

MENA region - % of people living below $1.25 a dayAll regions - % of people living below $1.25 a day% of people living below $1.25 a day% of people living below $2 a dayBreakdown of Headcount Index for MENA and International Poverty Lines of $1.25 and $2 a day over 1981-2005

Population

MENA regionAll regions% of Poeple living below $1.25 a day

Sheet5

MENA regionAll regions% of People Living Below $2 a day

Sheet6RRLIRRLARPLATotalPopulation, Mill.40168124332GDP B. $US6664002251292

Sheet6

RRLIRRLARPLAPopulation Millions

Total PopulationCountry195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050Djibouti6270851171622243404035616247308048779511027111311971276134914171480Algeria8753971510800119231374616018188112209725283282653050632854354233808840630428824472646255475704872149610Egypt21834246922784031563351903917443674491865513760648665297285079537862199257898513104070109238113895117921121219Libyan Arab Jamahiriya102911261349162319942466306338504364483353465918653071297656808784478785912494369683Morocco89531013211626133231531017305195672229924808269512882730495323813433036200378653925940397413144205242583Tunisia3530386042214630512756686458733082198975956410105106641120411712121701252912797129921312113178Mauritania692787892101111501315150317151945222525662963336337574153454849445333570560506364Iran (Islamic Republic of)1691319090217042488628805333443933048418566746219966125694217427679379842448802791155940629674398881100174Bahrain11613415619122027234741349357865072579285791797210251072111211461173Iraq53406264733285891011211972140931628818515216322505227996306883494739161432934737651300550355859361942Israel12581748211425632898335837644103451453746084669272727797826987229160957599461026210527Jordan4726658961106162319372225270632544304479955446453692374698029855490299445981310121Kuwait1521992784717441007137517202143172522282700305133783690398842734547480750395240Lebanon144316131888218424432737278528912974349137724011422744314616478449255037512351845221Occupied Palestinian Territory1005104211011199109612551476178321542617314937624409509058066553732080858837956610265Oman456505565642747917118715271843217224022507276730513339361438654088429144764639Qatar253545701111712293614675266177968859661040110211611215126313031333Saudi Arabia32013593407547935745725196041286516256182512080723612264162926532089347973731439591415944339445030Syrian Arab Republic35363991462153996371753789711081512721146101651118894214282351025573275192929430921324033375434887United Arab Emirates707990144225530101514101867243232474104473252635774626867537232769881348521Yemen43164732522257996391709383811013712314155231818221096244752828832390365674076845036493935376558009Total Population8315694072106900122226140210161551188198222317256506287955317693347849380646414823448333479413508115534871559639582028601199Total Population (without Israel)8189892324104786119663137312158193184434218214251992282581311609341157373374407026440064470691498955525296549693571766590672Total Population (in millions)83.15694.072106.9122.226140.21161.551188.198222.317256.506287.955317.693347.849380.646414.823448.333479.413508.115534.871559.639582.028601.199Total Population (in millions) (without Israel)81.89892.324104.786119.663137.312158.193184.434218.214251.992282.581311.609341.157373.374407.026440.064470.691498.955525.296549.693571.766590.672Average Annual Growth Rate1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Djibouti2.483.86.376.516.528.363.386.622.153.131.941.741.621.541.611.451.271.110.980.87Algeria2.092.121.982.853.063.213.222.692.231.531.481.511.451.291.080.840.670.560.480.36Egypt2.462.42.512.182.142.172.382.281.911.851.821.761.611.421.241.10.970.830.690.55Libyan Arab Jamahiriya1.83.613.74.124.254.344.572.512.042.022.031.971.761.431.090.870.790.760.670.52Morocco2.472.752.722.782.452.462.612.131.661.351.121.21.171.060.90.720.570.450.350.25Tunisia1.791.791.852.0422.612.532.291.761.271.11.080.990.890.770.580.420.30.20.09Mauritania2.572.52.512.582.672.672.642.522.692.852.882.532.2221.821.671.521.351.181.01Iran (Islamic Republic of)2.422.572.742.922.933.34.163.151.861.220.971.351.331.190.880.70.630.560.440.26Bahrain2.913.14.042.794.284.873.513.523.172.362.181.791.561.351.181.050.90.740.590.47Iraq3.193.153.163.273.383.262.92.563.112.942.221.842.62.282.011.81.591.411.251.11Israel6.583.83.852.462.952.281.721.913.492.481.91.661.391.181.070.980.890.760.630.51Jordan6.855.954.227.663.542.783.923.695.592.182.893.041.411.521.451.271.080.90.760.62Kuwait5.376.6710.539.176.046.244.484.4-4.345.123.842.442.041.771.551.381.251.110.950.78Lebanon2.233.152.912.242.280.340.750.573.21.551.231.050.940.820.710.580.450.340.240.14Occupied Palestinian Territory0.731.11.7-1.82.723.253.783.783.893.73.553.182.872.632.422.211.991.781.581.41Oman2.022.262.553.024.115.175.033.763.282.020.851.971.951.811.581.341.120.970.850.72Qatar6.735.038.849.288.65.869.045.192.353.195.112.111.761.481.161.040.910.770.620.47Saudi Arabia2.312.523.253.624.665.625.854.682.322.622.532.242.051.841.621.41.180.990.850.74Syrian Arab Republic2.422.933.113.313.363.483.743.252.772.452.72.521.851.681.471.251.080.940.820.66United Arab Emirates2.512.699.388.8617.17136.585.615.285.794.682.852.131.851.641.491.371.251.10.93Yemen1.841.972.091.942.093.343.83.894.633.162.972.972.92.712.432.171.991.851.71.52Average Annual Growth Rate3.03666666673.13619047624.00047619053.89523809524.34285714294.21952380953.83761904763.3809523812.6209523812.60857142862.38047619052.03809523811.79047619051.60666666671.41333333331.23285714291.07809523810.93952380950.80619047620.6661904762Average Annual Growth Rate (without Israel)2.39659117682.5323209162.65518567012.75152500252.83120195523.06951738683.36369113512.87842216632.29135788351.95567923221.81187170241.80475632751.72592934411.56086210831.34563313771.16628167121.02892003820.90796054660.7873975241Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup, Wednesday, October 0

Population growthPopulationAverage Annual Growth (percent)Population (in millions)Population Trends in MENA, 1950-2050

Chart210882235506868522766800106921964485810211

MinAverageMax

PPP GDPCountry NameCountry CodePC.PP.CDPP.CDCDPC.CDPOPAlgeriaDZA6062.281.99E+111.02E+11309832900000BahrainBHR27235.51366202240302571338031914918019.15149742561DjiboutiDJI1964.4560441473342033702055445.2936.073927750000Egypt, Arab Rep. (AFR)EG25048.6954863.53E+11988311876921411.8741170000000Iran, Islamic Rep.IRN10692.159657.35E+112.19E+113190.43238768700000IraqIRQ3199.82730189476668420339380038021213.67673927962968JordanJOR4293.53078923498494007126114582652304.3044525473000KuwaitKWT44946.546981.10E+118079840231132881.543252457257LebanonLBN10211.9200538346106999215582089555741.1488033755034LibyaLBY10882.96642094640004153600000070405900000MoroccoMAR3547.4499191.07E+11589564577161952.0713130202000OmanOMN20333.66459510171644553083383977112289.294452509000QatarQAT68695.85598558388769634211263736351809.13063812842Saudi ArabiaSAU21219.78264.91E+113.15E+1113639.7399823118994Syrian Arab RepublicSYR4059.14102275045399219283787303411534.98108718488000TunisiaTUN6460.63988764793757431290389816302895.5012110029000United Arab EmiratesARE33483.991.51E+111.42E+11316014500000West Bank and GazaWBG3586.9912913164000398520000011073600000Yemen, Rep.YEM2276.2789184617206888516761576638826.344247820284012Expenditures per capita (current international $, PPP term)Expenditures (current international $, PPP term)Expenditures (current US$, XR term)Expenditures per capita (current US$, XR term)PopulationTotal8095.6803282.69E+121.29E+123889.618201332184668DjiboutiDJI1964.4560441473342033702055445.2936.073927750000Egypt, Arab Rep. (AFR)EG25048.6954863.53E+11988311876921411.8741170000000JordanJOR4293.53078923498494007126114582652304.3044525473000LebanonLBN10211.9200538346106999215582089555741.1488033755034MoroccoMAR3547.4499191.07E+11589564577161952.0713130202000TunisiaTUN6460.63988764793757431290389816302895.5012110029000West Bank and GazaWBG3586.9912913164000398520000011073600000RPLA4858.8831656.02E+112.26E+111822.835882123809034AlgeriaDZA6062.281.99E+111.02E+11309832900000Iran, Islamic Rep.IRN10692.159657.35E+112.19E+113190.43238768700000IraqIRQ3199.82730189476668420339380038021213.67673927962968Syrian Arab RepublicSYR4059.14102275045399219283787303411534.98108718488000Yemen, Rep.YEM2276.2789184617206888516761576638826.344247820284012RRLA6800.0989251.14E+124.00E+112377.31466168334980BahrainBHR27235.51366202240302571338031914918019.15149742561KuwaitKWT44946.546981.10E+118079840231132881.543252457257LibyaLBY10882.96642094640004153600000070405900000OmanOMN20333.66459510171644553083383977112289.294452509000QatarQAT68695.85598558388769634211263736351809.13063812842Saudi ArabiaSAU21219.78264.91E+113.15E+1113639.7399823118994United Arab EmiratesARE33483.991.51E+111.42E+11316014500000RRLI23550.882429.43E+116.66E+1116638.1589440040654Total2.69E+121.29E+123321846680

GDPCRRLIRRLARPLATotalPopulation, Mill.40168124332GDP B. $US6664002251292GDP B. $US PPP94211446012689GDP/Cap. $US16638237718223889GDP/Cap $ US PPP23550680048588095RRLIRRLARPLATotalMin10882227619641964Average23550680048588095Max68685106921021168685

GDPCh1

GDPCh116638237718222355068004858

RRLIRRLARPLA

GDPCh2

GDPCh210882235506868522766800106921964485810211

MinAverageMax

PovertyMENA regionAll regionsMENA regionAll regions19818.652198128.769.419846.847.1198424.967.619876.941.819872564.119905.441.619902263.119935.238.9199321.961.419965.334.8199622.358.419995.833.7199923.757.120024.731200219.653.620054.625.720051947.6

Poverty000000000000000000000000000


PopGDP8.65219816.847.119846.941.819875.441.619905.238.919935.334.819965.833.719994.73120024.625.72005


Population000000000000000000


Sheet5000000000000000000


Sheet6RRLIRRLARPLATotalPopulation, Mill.40168124332GDP B. $US6664002251292

Sheet6000000

RRLIRRLARPLAPopulation Millions

Total PopulationCountry195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050Djibouti6270851171622243404035616247308048779511027111311971276134914171480Algeria8753971510800119231374616018188112209725283282653050632854354233808840630428824472646255475704872149610Egypt21834246922784031563351903917443674491865513760648665297285079537862199257898513104070109238113895117921121219Libyan Arab Jamahiriya102911261349162319942466306338504364483353465918653071297656808784478785912494369683Morocco89531013211626133231531017305195672229924808269512882730495323813433036200378653925940397413144205242583Tunisia3530386042214630512756686458733082198975956410105106641120411712121701252912797129921312113178Mauritania692787892101111501315150317151945222525662963336337574153454849445333570560506364Iran (Islamic Republic of)1691319090217042488628805333443933048418566746219966125694217427679379842448802791155940629674398881100174Bahrain11613415619122027234741349357865072579285791797210251072111211461173Iraq53406264733285891011211972140931628818515216322505227996306883494739161432934737651300550355859361942Israel12581748211425632898335837644103451453746084669272727797826987229160957599461026210527Jordan4726658961106162319372225270632544304479955446453692374698029855490299445981310121Kuwait1521992784717441007137517202143172522282700305133783690398842734547480750395240Lebanon144316131888218424432737278528912974349137724011422744314616478449255037512351845221Occupied Palestinian Territory1005104211011199109612551476178321542617314937624409509058066553732080858837956610265Oman456505565642747917118715271843217224022507276730513339361438654088429144764639Qatar253545701111712293614675266177968859661040110211611215126313031333Saudi Arabia32013593407547935745725196041286516256182512080723612264162926532089347973731439591415944339445030Syrian Arab Republic35363991462153996371753789711081512721146101651118894214282351025573275192929430921324033375434887United Arab Emirates707990144225530101514101867243232474104473252635774626867537232769881348521Yemen43164732522257996391709383811013712314155231818221096244752828832390365674076845036493935376558009Total Population8315694072106900122226140210161551188198222317256506287955317693347849380646414823448333479413508115534871559639582028601199Total Population (without Israel)8189892324104786119663137312158193184434218214251992282581311609341157373374407026440064470691498955525296549693571766590672Total Population (in millions)83.15694.072106.9122.226140.21161.551188.198222.317256.506287.955317.693347.849380.646414.823448.333479.413508.115534.871559.639582.028601.199Total Population (in millions) (without Israel)81.89892.324104.786119.663137.312158.193184.434218.214251.992282.581311.609341.157373.374407.026440.064470.691498.955525.296549.693571.766590.672Average Annual Growth Rate1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Djibouti2.483.86.376.516.528.363.386.622.153.131.941.741.621.541.611.451.271.110.980.87Algeria2.092.121.982.853.063.213.222.692.231.531.481.511.451.291.080.840.670.560.480.36Egypt2.462.42.512.182.142.172.382.281.911.851.821.761.611.421.241.10.970.830.690.55Libyan Arab Jamahiriya1.83.613.74.124.254.344.572.512.042.022.031.971.761.431.090.870.790.760.670.52Morocco2.472.752.722.782.452.462.612.131.661.351.121.21.171.060.90.720.570.450.350.25Tunisia1.791.791.852.0422.612.532.291.761.271.11.080.990.890.770.580.420.30.20.09Mauritania2.572.52.512.582.672.672.642.522.692.852.882.532.2221.821.671.521.351.181.01Iran (Islamic Republic of)2.422.572.742.922.933.34.163.151.861.220.971.351.331.190.880.70.630.560.440.26Bahrain2.913.14.042.794.284.873.513.523.172.362.181.791.561.351.181.050.90.740.590.47Iraq3.193.153.163.273.383.262.92.563.112.942.221.842.62.282.011.81.591.411.251.11Israel6.583.83.852.462.952.281.721.913.492.481.91.661.391.181.070.980.890.760.630.51Jordan6.855.954.227.663.542.783.923.695.592.182.893.041.411.521.451.271.080.90.760.62Kuwait5.376.6710.539.176.046.244.484.4-4.345.123.842.442.041.771.551.381.251.110.950.78Lebanon2.233.152.912.242.280.340.750.573.21.551.231.050.940.820.710.580.450.340.240.14Occupied Palestinian Territory0.731.11.7-1.82.723.253.783.783.893.73.553.182.872.632.422.211.991.781.581.41Oman2.022.262.553.024.115.175.033.763.282.020.851.971.951.811.581.341.120.970.850.72Qatar6.735.038.849.288.65.869.045.192.353.195.112.111.761.481.161.040.910.770.620.47Saudi Arabia2.312.523.253.624.665.625.854.682.322.622.532.242.051.841.621.41.180.990.850.74Syrian Arab Republic2.422.933.113.313.363.483.743.252.772.452.72.521.851.681.471.251.080.940.820.66United Arab Emirates2.512.699.388.8617.17136.585.615.285.794.682.852.131.851.641.491.371.251.10.93Yemen1.841.972.091.942.093.343.83.894.633.162.972.972.92.712.432.171.991.851.71.52Average Annual Growth Rate3.03666666673.13619047624.00047619053.89523809524.34285714294.21952380953.83761904763.3809523812.6209523812.60857142862.38047619052.03809523811.79047619051.60666666671.41333333331.23285714291.07809523810.93952380950.80619047620.6661904762Average Annual Growth Rate (without Israel)2.39659117682.5323209162.65518567012.75152500252.83120195523.06951738683.36369113512.87842216632.29135788351.95567923221.81187170241.80475632751.72592934411.56086210831.34563313771.16628167121.02892003820.90796054660.7873975241Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup, Wednesday, October 0

000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Population growthPopulationAverage Annual Growth (percent)Population (in millions)Population Trends in MENA, 1950-2050

Chart18.6526.847.16.941.85.441.65.238.95.334.85.833.74.7314.625.7


Sheet1MENA regionAll regionsMENA regionAll regions19818.652198128.769.419846.847.1198424.967.619876.941.819872564.119905.441.619902263.119935.238.9199321.961.419965.334.8199622.358.419995.833.7199923.757.120024.731200219.653.620054.625.720051947.6

Sheet119818.65219846.847.119876.941.819905.441.619935.238.919965.334.819995.833.720024.73120054.625.7


Sheet28.65219816.847.119846.941.819875.441.619905.238.919935.334.819965.833.719994.73120024.625.72005


Sheet3000000000000000000


Sheet4000000000000000000


Sheet5

Sheet6

Chart228.769.424.967.62564.12263.121.961.422.358.423.757.119.653.61947.6


Sheet1MENA regionAll regionsMENA regionAll regions19818.652198128.769.419846.847.1198424.967.619876.941.819872564.119905.441.619902263.119935.238.9199321.961.419965.334.8199622.358.419995.833.7199923.757.120024.731200219.653.620054.625.720051947.6

Sheet119818.65219846.847.119876.941.819905.441.619935.238.919965.334.819995.833.720024.73120054.625.7


Sheet28.65219816.847.119846.941.819875.441.619905.238.919935.334.819965.833.719994.73120024.625.72005


Sheet3000000000000000000


Sheet4000000000000000000


Sheet5

Sheet6

comparative regional economy : central asia, middle east and north africa

Documents