comparison of the structures and interdependences in the slovak economy in 2000 and 2005 mikuláš...

Comparison of the Structures and Interdependences in the Slovak

economy in 2000 and 2005

Mikuláš Luptáčik Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien

Martin Lábaj Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava

Input-Output-Workshop 201018th – 19th March

Halle

Structure of the presentation

•Database and methodology•Basic structure of the Slovak economy•Multipliers – final demand effects on:

▫production, value added, import and employment

•Structural decomposition – methodology•Structural decomposition

▫Employment▫Import

•Concluding remarks

Database and Methodology• Input – output tables for Slovakia 2000, 2005 current

prices• Input – output tables for Slovakia 2005, constant

prices (2000)• commodity x commodity technology (Eurostat

methodology)▫ Version B (without import) – effects on domestic production▫ Data in SKK

• Leontief I-O model• Structural Decomposition – Dietzenbacher, Los

Changes in employment, import, value added and final consumption components in the Slovak economy between 2000 and 2005 (constant prices 2000, billions SKK)

2000 2005 Percentage changeFinal consumption

expenditure by households 359,2 399,9 11,3 %Final consumption

expenditure by government(including NPISH) 193,6 207,0 6,9 %

Gross capital formation 158,3 192,3 21,5 %

Exports 660,9 1 000,6 51,4 %

Total final demand 1 372,0 1 799,7 31,2 %

Employment (in thousand) 2 101,2 2 204,8 4,9 %

Imports 506,74 691,4 36,4 %

Value added 865,28 1108,3 28,1 %

Export structure in Slovakia, 200010 most important commodities

% of total export

Import multipliers

Employment multipliers

34 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 14,93% 0,83 0,32

27 Basic metals 9,33% 0,50 0,89

60 Land transport; transport via pipeline services 7,18% 0,46 1,16

24 Chemicals, chem. prod. and man-made fibres 6,72% 0,53 0,65

29 Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 6,43% 0,57 0,9351 Wholesale trade and commission trade services, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 6,33% 0,28 1,07

23 Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels 5,64% 0,83 0,19

31 Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. 4,72% 0,60 0,81

21 Pulp, paper and paper products 3,37% 0,49 0,90

28 Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 2,91% 0,43 1,99

Total exports - 0,52 1,13

% of total exportImport

multipliersEmployment multipliers

34 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 16,26% 0,78 0,29

27 Basic metals 8,55% 0,51 0,55

29 Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 6,72% 0,54 0,8032 Radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus 5,83% 0,83 0,56

31 Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. 5,69% 0,67 0,81

23 Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels 4,96% 0,72 0,17

60 Land transport; transport via pipeline services 4,91% 0,25 1,2051 Wholesale trade and commission trade services, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 4,85% 0,15 0,93

24 Chemicals, chem. prod. and man-made fibres 3,98% 0,57 0,67

25 Rubber and plastic products 3,74% 0,61 0,77

Total exports - 0,52 0,92

Export structure in Slovakia, 200510 most important commodities

Contribution to export growth10 most important commodities

Weighted contribution to

growth in export in p.p.

Share on export growth in %

34 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9,68 18,84

32 Radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus 6,85 13,34 31 Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. 3,90 7,58 29 Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 3,73 7,27 27 Basic metals 3,61 7,03 25 Rubber and plastic products 3,00 5,84

28 Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 2,62 5,10 30 Office machinery and computers 2,11 4,10 15 Food products and beverages 1,91 3,72

23 Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels 1,87 3,65 Total export growth 51,38 % -

Final demand effects on production Production multipliers in Slovakia, 2000 and 2005

Categories of final demand

Induced gross production in billions SKK

Induced gross production proportion

(%)

Production multipliers (Version B)

2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005

Final consumption expenditure by households 660,96 614,0 29,2 23,7 1,84 1,54

Final consumption expenditure by government 295,96 277,7 13,1 10,7 1,501 1,34

Gross capital formation 294,62 323,9 13,0 12,5 1,861 1,68

Exports 1 008,80 1371,4 44,6 53,0 1,526 1,37

Total final demand 2 260,35 2587,0 100 100,0 1,647 1,44

Final demand effects on value added, Value added multipliers in Slovakia, 2000 and 2005


Induced value added in billions SKK

Induced value added proportion

(%)

Value added multipliers

2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005




Exports 316,19 481,2 36,5 43,4 0,48 0,48

Total final demand 865,28 1108,3 100 100,0 0,63 0,62

Final demand effects on importsImport multipliers in Slovakia, 2000 and 2005


Induced imports in billions SKK

Induced imports proportion

(%)Import multipliers

2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005




Exports 344,74 519,3 68,0 75,1 0,52 0,52


Changes in import requirements induced by final demand categories between 2000 and 2005

Import changes in billions SKK

Import changes

proportion

Percentage change in imports induced by

corresponding category of final demand

Final consumption expenditure by households -0,66 -0,4% -0,8%

Final consumption expenditure by government -1,94 -1,1% -6,6%

Gross capital formation 12,74 6,9% 27,9%

Exports 174,57 94,5% 50,6%

Total final demand 184,70 100,0% 36,4%

Final demand effects on employmentEmployment multipliers in Slovakia, 2000 and 2005


Induced employment (thousands)

Induced employment proportions

Employment multipliers

2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005




Exports 744,77 929,8 35,4 42,2 1,13 0,93


Changes in employment induced by final demand categories between 2000 and 2005

Employment changes

Employment changes

proportion

Percentage change in employment induced by

corresponding category of final demand

Final consumption expenditure by households -99210 -95,8% -16,8%

Final consumption expenditure by government -20787 -20,1% -4,0%

Gross capital formation 38527 37,2% 15,9%

Exports 185070 178,6% 24,8%

Total final demand 103600 100,0% 4,9%

Structural decomposition techniques

Dietzenbacher, E. – Los, B.: Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity. Economic Systems Research, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1998.

• Polar decompositions – taking average

• All decompositions – average and standard deviation

• Approximate decomposition with mid-point weights

Structural decomposition with two determinants

( ) (1) (0)( )y x z x z

( ) (0) (1)( )y x z x z

1 1( ) ( )

2 2y x z x z

(1) (0)y y y

y xz

Two alternative ways (taking average)

Excact solution – only in the case of two determinants

1 1 1(0) (1)

2 2 2z z z

Import and employment determinants

ˆˆ

ˆˆ

m

w

m vLBf R F

w uLBf R F

mR

wR

m 57x5 matrix of induced importw 57x5 matrix of induced laborv 57x1 vector of import intensity (direct)u 57x1 vector of employment intensityL 57x57 Leontief inverseB 57x5 final demand structuref 5x1 vector of final demand (volume by categories and total) 57x57 complex import intensity 57x57 complex employment intensity F 57x5 final demand (volume by categories and total)

Decomposition of changes in imports, in billions SKKDietzenbacher – mid-point weightsTwo determinants

Change in importsChange in complex

import intensityChange in final

demand

Final consumption expenditure by households -0,7 2,1 -2,8

Final consumption expenditure by government -1,9 1,1 -3,1

Gross capital formation 12,7 3,2 9,5

Exports 174,6 -16,6 191,2

Total final demand 184,7 -10,2 194,9

Decomposition of changes in imports, in billions SKKPolar decomposition – weight for import intensity from 2000Two determinants

Change in importsChange in complex

import intensityChange in final

demand

Final consumption expenditure by households -0,7 2,6 -3,3

Final consumption expenditure by government -1,9 1,0 -2,9

Gross capital formation 12,7 4,8 8,0

Exports 174,6 -14,7 189,2

Total final demand 184,7 -6,3 191,0

Decomposition of changes in employmentDietzenbacher – mid-point weightsTwo determinants

Change in employment

Change in labor complex intensity

of production

Change in final demand

Final consumption expenditure by households -99210 -100130 920

Final consumption expenditure by government -20787 -88147 67360

Gross capital formation 38527 -27244 65771

Exports 185070 -147809 332878

Total final demand 103600 -363330 466930

Decomposition of changes in employmentPolar decomposition – weight for labor intensity from 2000Two determinants


Change in complex labor intensity of

production


Final consumption expenditure by households -99210 -113140 13931

Final consumption expenditure by government -20787 -95934 75147

Gross capital formation 38527 -32578 71105

Exports 185070 -191526 376596

Total final demand 103600 -433178 536778

Decomposition of changes in imports, in billions SKK

Change in imports

Change in import

intensity of production

Change in Leontief matrix

Change in the structure

of final demand

Change in final

demand volume

Final consumption expenditure by

households -661 311 14 989 920 -12 901 175 -12 071 540 9 321 484Final consumption

expenditure by government -1 941 451 8 012 260 -6 878 462 -4 980 273 1 905 024Gross capital

formation 12 736 944 6 767 077 -3 536 937 -558 168 10 064 972

Exports 174 569 303 -2 227 016 -14 411 196 14 500 302 176 707 213

Total final demand 184 703 484 27 542 241 -37 727 770 -3 109 679 197 998 692

Decomposition of changes in importsCorresponding effects direction

Change in imports

Change in import intensity of production


Change in the structure of

final demand

Change in final

demand volume

Final consumption expenditure by households ― + ― ― +

Final consumption expenditure by government ― + ― ― +

Gross capital formation + + ― ― +Exports + ― ― + +

Total final demand + + ― ― +

Share of final demand categories on import changes induced by particular component

Change in imports

Change in import




final demand


volume

Final consumption expenditure by households -0,4% 54,4% 34,2% 388,2% 4,7%

Final consumption expenditure by government -1,1% 29,1% 18,2% 160,2% 1,0%

Gross capital formation 6,9% 24,6% 9,4% 17,9% 5,1%

Exports 94,5% -8,1% 38,2% -466,3% 89,2%

Total final demand 100,0% 100,0% 100,0% 100,0% 100,0%

Contribution of particular components to changes in import induced by final demand categories

Change in imports

Change in import




final demand

Change in final

demand volume

Final consumption expenditure by households 100% -2267% 1951% 1825% -1410%

Final consumption expenditure by government 100% -413% 354% 257% -98%

Gross capital formation 100% 53% -28% -4% 79%Exports 100% -1% -8% 8% 101%

Total final demand 100% 15% -20% -2% 107%

Decomposition of changes in employment


Change in labor




final demand


volume

Final consumption expenditure by households -99 210 -30 322 -69 808 -57 582 58 502

Final consumption expenditure by government -20 787 -52 412 -35 735 32 935 34 425

Gross capital formation 38 527 -1 665 -25 579 15 019 50 753

Exports 185 070 -64 199 -83 610 -16 284 349 162

Total final demand 103 600 -148 598 -214 732 -25 911 492 841

Decomposition of changes in employmentCorresponding effects direction


Change in labor intensity of production



final demand


volume

Final consumption expenditure by households ― ― ― ― +

Final consumption expenditure by government ― ― ― + +

Gross capital formation + ― ― + +Exports + ― ― ― +

Total final demand + ― ― ― +

Share of final demand categories on employment changes induced by particular component





final demand


volume

Final consumption expenditure by households -95,8% 20,4% 32,5% 222,2% 11,9%

Final consumption expenditure by government -20,1% 35,3% 16,6% -127,1% 7,0%

Gross capital formation 37,2% 1,1% 11,9% -58,0% 10,3%

Exports 178,6% 43,2% 38,9% 62,8% 70,8%

Total final demand 100,0% 100,0% 100,0% 100,0% 100,0%

Contribution of particular components to changes in employment induced by final demand categories





final demand


volume

Final consumption expenditure by households 100,0% 30,6% 70,4% 58,0% -59,0%

Final consumption expenditure by government 100,0% 252,1% 171,9% -158,4% -165,6%

Gross capital formation 100,0% -4,3% -66,4% 39,0% 131,7%

Exports 100,0% -34,7% -45,2% -8,8% 188,7%

Total final demand 100,0% -143,4% -207,3% -25,0% 475,7%

Concluding remarks• Export – fastest growing final demand category between 2000

and 2005 – 51,4 %• High import intensity of export unchangend – 0,52• Export – important for employment – in 2000 – every third

employee worked for export, in 2005 every second till third employee worked for export

• Export – main source of empolyment growth between 2000 – 2005

• Importance of I-O tables in constat prices – allows us to analyse structural changes in economy and distinguish technology and price changes

• Structural decomposition – importat tool for analysis of changes that are not visible at first glance▫ Evaluate contradicting effects – which of them is higher (stronger)

Thank you for attention ...

comparison of the structures and interdependences in the slovak economy in 2000 and 2005 mikuláš...

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