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SPEC Barometer: Performance RatingsPress Release: General Media

Prepared by: Ipsos

Release date: 27th May 2015

Current confidence ratings: Jubilee leadership Other senior government officials Government institutions Independent commissions Non-state actors

Trend analysis: Selected confidence ratings • Top government officials • IEBC

Performance comparison: Jubilee vs. Grand-coalition government in 13 policy areas Total, CORD vs. Jubilee supporters

Trend analysis: total combined positive vs. negative performance ratings

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Contents

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Methodology

Methodology

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Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015

Sample Size 1,964

Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)

Universe

Data collection methodology

Sampling error

Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Poll funding Ipsos Limited

Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in Urban and Rural areas

+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

Sample Structure Statistics

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RegionSample Frame statistics

(April 2015)*Weighted data

% Population Census as at 2009

Adults (18 years +)%

Central 257 13 2,548,038 13

Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9

Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15

Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10

North Eastern94* 5 929,158 5

Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13

Rift Valley484 25 4,795,482 25

Western 200 10 1,980,090 10

TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100

Quality Control Measures

For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout

Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).

After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).

Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.

Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.

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Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data

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Respondents’ Demographic Profile:

Catholic

Catholic Charismatic

Mainstream Protestant (ACK, Methodist, Presbyterian, AIC)

SDA

Evangelical

Other Christian

Muslim

Refused To Answer/None

No religion

Public Sector wages/salary

Private sector wages /salary

Gains from self employment/ Business owner/trader

Agriculture (own/household farm)

Livestock

Given money by others

Pension from previous employment

Other

Don’t Know

Refused To Answer

28%

2%

30%

8%

11%

9%

10%

1%

1%

9%

22%

28%

23%

4%

4%

2%

5%

1%

2%

Demographic Profile

Nairobi

Coast

Nyanza

Rift Valley

North Eastern

Eastern

Central

Western

Female

Male

18 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45+

Urban

Rural

Kenyans

10%

9%

13%

25%

5%

15%

13%

10%

51%

49%

28%

29%

18%

25%

37%

63%

100%

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Region

Gender

Age

Setting

Religion

Nationality

Source of Household Income

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Demographic Profile

No formal education

Some primary education

Primary education completed

Some secondary education

Secondary education completed

Some middle level college (not university)

Completed mid-level college (Not University)

Some University education

University education completed

Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)

Less than 10,000

10,001 – 25,000

25,001 – 40,000

40,001 – 55,000

55,001 – 75,000

75,001 – 100,000

100,001 and above

Has No income

RTA/DK

4%

14%

19%

14%

26%

8%

7%

3%

3%

1%

42%

33%

11%

4%

1%

1%

0%

2%

7%

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Level of Education

Monthly Household Income (ALL members of the Household)

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Demographic Profile

Self-Employed

Unemployed

Employed in the private sector

Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)

Casual labour

Employed in the public sector

Student

Retired

Other

41%

18%

11%

10%

7%

5%

5%

2%

1%

10

Employment Status

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

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Performance Ratings

“How much confidence you have in each of the following institutions/public office holders. Do you have…?” (The Executive)(% for “some confidence” / “only a little confidence” not shown)

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President Uhuru Kenyatta

Deputy President Ruto William

National Government in general

County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers

The Attorney-General Githu Muigai

The Cabinet Secretaries

Department of Immigration

48%

35%

19%

19%

18%

14%

10%

11%

22%

15%

18%

19%

25%

24%

A LOT NONE

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Level of Confidence: The Executive % saying “a lot of confidence” by Jubilee Vs. CORD Supporters

Institution/Public Office HolderJubilee Supporters

(n=871)

CORD Supporters

(n=624)%

Difference

The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 68% 22% -46%

The Deputy President (William Ruto) 55% 12% -43%

Cabinet Secretaries 18% 9% -9%

The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 25% 13% -12%

County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers

21% 19% -2%

Department of Immigration 10% 11% -1%

National Government in general 24% 13% -11%

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Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown)

November 2013

February 2014

May 2014 September 2014

*October 2014

November 2014

*December 2014

April 20150%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

53%

41%

32%

43%

71%

51%

67%

48%48%

38%

27%

38%

62%

42%

63%

35%

18%11% 11%

17%

42%

19% 14%

23%

14% 12%19%

48%

22%18%

The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) The Deputy President (William Ruto)

Cabinet Secretaries The Attorney General : Githu Muigai

**N/A

**N/A: Not Asked*CATI surveys

President’s ICC status conference

ICC case against the President withdrawn

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Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown)

Institution/Public Office Holder

November 2013

February 2014

May 2014

September 2014

October 2014

November 2014

December 2014 April 2015

The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48%

The Deputy President (William Ruto) 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35%

Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14%

The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18%

County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers

- - - 14% - 19% - 19%

Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10%

National Government in general - - - 27% - 26% - 19%

“How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?” County Governments(% for “some confidence", "only a little confidence” not shown)

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County Governments (in general)

Governors

Your County Assembly Representative (MCA)

Senators

22%

21%

20%

19%

14%

20%

22%

25%

A LOT NONE

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

“How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?”Security Services & the Judiciary(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence” not shown)

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The Military/Kenya Defense Forces

Chief Justice Willy Mutunga

The Supreme Court

Judges of the Kenyan Courts

The Police

Inspector General of Police (Joseph Boinnet)

The Judiciary

Intelligence Service/National Intelligence Services

Other Courts

32%

22%

21%

16%

15%

15%

15%

15%

12%

9%

17%

14%

19%

31%

14%

20%

16%

15%

A LOT NONE

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

“How much confidence you have in each of the following …?” Current and Former Public Officials(% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown)

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First Lady Margaret Kenyatta

CORD Principal Raila Odinga

Your Member of Parliament

Political Parties

CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka

CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula

Opposition

Majority Leader Aden Duale

Speaker of the National Assembly Justin Muturi

55%

29%

22%

19%

18%

18%

18%

15%

14%

8%

30%

20%

14%

32%

31%

23%

27%

23%

A LOT NONE

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

“How much confidence you have in each of the following …?” Civil Society/Independent Institutions(% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown)

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The Media

Your religious leaders

Ipsos

Opinion Survey Firms

Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)/Civil Society

Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC)

Communications Authority of Kenya (CA)

Director of Public Prosecutions Keriako Tobiko

Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA)

National Land Commission

Salaries and Remuneration Commission

Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission

46%

43%

33%

22%

21%

16%

13%

11%

11%

10%

10%

9%

4%

8%

4%

7%

6%

28%

19%

21%

15%

26%

21%

29%

A LOT NONE

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

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Confidence Ratings:November 2013 – April 2015

Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown)

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Institution/Public Office HolderNov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014

Sept. 2014

Oct. 2014

Nov. 2014

Dec. 2014

April 2015

The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48%

The Deputy President (William Ruto) 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35%

Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14%

The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18%

County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers - - - 14% - 18% - 19%

Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10%

National Government in general - - - 27% - 26% - 19%

County Assembly Representatives (MCAs) - - - 21% - 20% - 20%

County Governments 28% 13% 13% 20% - 22% - 22%

Governors - - - 23% - 25% - 21%

Senators 21% 11% 13% 19% - 23% - 19%

The Media 68% 43% 31% 42% - 42% - 46%

Religious Leaders 50% 39% 36% 46% - 35% - 43%

Civil Society/NGOs - - - 18% - 28% 45% 21%

Opinion Survey Firms - - 20% 22% - 25% - 22%

Ipsos Limited (Kenya) - - - 33% - 34% - 33%

National Land Commission 16% 7% 9% 14% - 14% - 10%Salaries and Remuneration Commission (SRC) 23% 13% 12% 13% - 13% - 10%

Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) 30% 21% 16% 23% - 23% - 16%

Director of Public Prosecutions 32% 8% 10% 12% - 15% - 11%Ethics and Anti Corruption Commission (EACC) - - - - - 11% - 9%Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA) - - - - - - - 11%

Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) - - - - - - - 13%

Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”(% for “some confidence” , “only a little confidence, "no confidence at all” not shown)

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Institution/Public Office HolderNov. 2013

Feb. 2014 May 2014

Sept. 2014

Oct. 2014

Nov. 2014

Dec. 2014

April 2015

The Police 20% 11% 11% 19% - 18% - 15%

Inspector-General of Police: David Kimaiyo 24% 12% 15% 19% - 19%

Inspector-General of Police: Joseph Boinnet - 15%

Cabinet Secretary for Interior: Joseph Nkaissery - - - - - - 48%

Intelligence Service/National Intelligence Services (NIS) 18% 10% 10% 16% - 16% - 15%

The Military/Kenya Defense Forces - - 27% 37% - 48% - 32%

The Judiciary - -   17% - 17% - 15%

The Supreme Court 28% 16% 16% 20% - 25% - 21%

Other Courts 21% 12% 9% 13% - 15% - 12%

The Chief Justice: Willy Mutunga 27% 16% 15% 24% - 27% - 22%

Judges of the Kenyan Courts - - - 16% - - - 16%

Political Parties - 7% 10% 22% - 19% - 19%

CORD Principal Raila Odinga 37% 25% 24% 28% - 24% - 29%

CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka - - - 20% - 16% - 18%

CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula - - - 19% - 15% - 18%

Retired President Kibaki - - - 27% - - - -

Retired President Moi - - - 26% - - - -

National Assembly /Parliament       15% - 15% - 11%

Speaker of the National Assembly: Justin Muturi 19% 12% 12% 16% - 15% - 14%

Majority Leader :Aden Duale - - - 16% - 18% - 15%

Your Member of Parliament /MPs 17% 9% 11% 23% - 22% - 22%

First Lady Margaret Kenyatta - - - 39% - 50% - 55%

The Opposition - - - - - 16% 42% 18%

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Confidence Ratings:IEBC Trend Analysis

(February 2013 – April 2015)

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“Please tell me how much confidence you have in the IEBC…?” (Trend Analysis – Only shown for: “a lot of confidence” and “no confidence at all”)

February 2013

(n=5,971)

June 2013 (n=2,000)

November 2013

(n=2,060)

February 2014

(n=2,031)

May 2014 (n=2,059)

September 2014

(n=2,021)

November 2014

(n=2,005)

April 2015 (n=1,964)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

62%

32%

30%

21%16%

23% 23%

16%2%

22%

32%25%

29% 31%25% 28%

A lot of Confidence No Confidence at all

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Policy Performance:Jubilee vs. Grand

Coalition Govt

Jubilee vs. Grand Coalition Government Performance on 13 Policy Areas (By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

26Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Jubilee: Policy Areas Better Worse % Difference Same Not Sure

Economic growth 38% 48% -10% 13% 1%

Cost of living 25% 63% -38% 12% 1%

Education 52% 30% +22% 17% 0%

Human rights 27% 44% -17% 26% 3%

Corruption 14% 73% -59% 12% 1%

Crime 13% 71% -58% 14% 2%

Terrorism 10% 79% -69% 10% 2%

Freedom to criticize the government 25% 44% -19% 27% 4%

Wildlife protection 29% 34% -5% 30% 7%

Land issues 20% 62% -42% 15% 2%

Environmental conservation 31% 33% -2% 30% 5%

Medical /Health Services 61% 24% +37% 15% 1%

Respect for the constitution/rule of law 27% 37% -10% 30% 7%

Total positive difference =59%Total negative difference =329%

For further information contact: Dr Tom WolfSocial Political Consultanttpwolf1944@gmail.com

Victor RatengProject Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com

Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe

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