Controlling Vehicular Air Pollution in Beijing

Professor Kebin He

Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering, Tsinghua University

Orlando, Florida, USA

June 24, 2001

Overview of urbanization

•Increase of number for Chinese cities

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Urbanization Trends in China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

> 200 100- 200 50- 100 20- 50 <20Urban Population (10,000)

19941998

NOx Concentration for Different Scale Cities

0

0, 010, 02

0, 030, 04

0, 050, 06

0, 070, 08

0, 09

> 200 100- 200 50- 100 20- 50 <20

NOx

(mg/m

浓度

3)

19941998

Rates of NOx exceeding standard

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

> 200 100- 200 50- 100 20- 50 <20

( )城市人口 万人

(%)

超标率

19941998

6

Why Beijing?

7

Motorization(Vehicles per 1000 people)

•0

•100

•200

•300

•400

•500

•600

•1940 •1950 •1960 •1970 •1980 •1990 •2000

• Veh

icle

s p

er 1

000

peo

ple

•Japan

•Tokyo

•Tokyo Ward area

•Korea

•Seoul

•China

•Beijing

•9

•72

•317

•557

•226

•356

•216

8

7.2

9.310.2

1.4

3.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

London New York Paris Tokyo Beijing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140V

ehic

le o

wn

ersh

ip, m

illio

n

NO

x con

cen

trat

ion

, g/

m3

Beijing is characterized by its low vehicle ownership and high pollution: Comparison of Beijing with four big cities

Data for Beijing is in 1998. Others are in 1990.

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1981 1986 1990 1995

Pas

seng

er tr

ips,

bill

ion

Bicycle Bus Subway Taxi Private car

Source: Yang, Urban Transportation and Environment in Beijing.

Primarily due to past settlement patterns, the relatively short trips, and government policy to promote bicycle use, Beijing’s transportation heavily relies on buses and bicycles. However, Beijing is beginning to experience a rapid rate of motorization, and most of the recently increased trips come from automobiles.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1981 1986 1990 1995

Pas

seng

er tr

ips,

bill

ion

BicycleBusSubwayTaxiPrivate car

Source: Yang, Urban Transportation and Environment in Beijing.

Primarily due to past settlement patterns, the relatively short trips, and government policy to promote bicycle use, Beijing’s transportation heavily relies on buses and bicycles. However, Beijing is beginning to experience a rapid rate of motorization, and most of the recently increased trips come from automobiles.

10

Passenger Traffic by Public Transportation Mode in Beijing

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998

An

nu

al p

asse

ng

er t

raff

ic (

1,00

0 p

asse

ng

eres

)

Beijing Taxi

Beijing Buses

Beijing Subway

Beijing Tram/Train

11

Bus

Car

Light rail

Subway

MC

NMV

Others

Comparison of passenger trip mix among big cities in the world

100%0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Beijing

Mexico city

Seoul

Bangkok

Rio de Janeiro

Buenos Aires

New York

London

Paris

Tokyo 1990

1990

1990

1990

1992

1995

1992

1992

1992

1995

12

China: Urban NOx Concentration

NOx Concentration in Chinese cities

Non-attainmentcities

Non-attainment forClass II standard

Non-attainment forClass III standard

yearNo.Of

cities numberrate

（％）number

rate

（%）number

rate

（%）

Non-attainment

cities for ClassIII

1995 88 32 36.4 3 3.4 0 0Beijing,

Guangzhou,Lanzhou

1996 88 27 30.7 25 28.4 2 2.3Beijing,

Guangzhou

1997 94 32 34.1 29 30.9 3 3.2Beijing,

Guangzhou,Shanghai

1998 96 32 33.3 29 30.2 3 3.1Beijing,

Guangzhou,Shanghai

13

Beijing: Air Pollutant Concentrations

Air Quality in Beijing from1997-1999 (mg/m3)

year SO2 NOx CO TSP

1997 0.125 0.133 3.0 0.318

1998 0.120 0.152 3.3 0.378

1999 0.080 0.140 2.9 0.364

14

BEIJING: O3 Concentration in 1997-1999

•3

Ozone concentration in Beijing

O3 Concentration in Beijing

Number of non-

attainment days

Number of non-

attainment hours

Max. Hourly

concentration

（g/m3）

1997 71 434 346

1998 101 504 384

1999 119 777

• Similar temporal variations at the two sites

• Strong weekly variations: max difference for two consecutive weeks is 2.5 times

Weekly variations

Beijing: PM2.5 Mass Concentration Levels

in 1999-2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

9/24-

9/30

10/6-

10/14

10/21

-10/2

7

11/4-

11/11

11/18

-11/2

5

12/2-

12/9

12/16

-12/2

3

12/30

/99-1

/6/00

1/13-

1/20

1/27-

2/3

2/10-

2/17

2/24-

3/2

3/9-3

/16

3/23-

3/30

4/6-4

/13

4/20-

4/27

5/4-5

/11

5/18-

5/25

6/1-6

/8

6/15-

6/22

6/29-

7/6

7/13-

7/20

7/27-

8/3

8/10-

8/17

8/24-

8/31

9/7-9

/14

9/21-

9/28

Sampl i ng Dates

PM2

.5 C

once

ntra

tions

(µg

.m-3

)

Chegongzhuang

Tsi nghua

16

Beijing is developing its suburbanization and decentralization, which will increase the passenger kilometers traveled

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Population in suburban area

Population in rural area

Population in core city

Popu

lati

on, m

illi

on

Source: Beijing’s Master Planning, 1993.

B e ij in g is d e v e lo p in g it s s u b u r b a n iz a t io n a n d d e c e n t r a liz a t io n , w h ic h w il l in c r e a se t h e p a s s e n g e r k i lo m e t e r s tr a v e le d

0

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 20 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5

P o p u la t io n in s u b u rb a n a r e a

P o p u la t io n in ru r a l a re a

P o p u la t io n in c o r e c i t y

Pop

ulat

ion,

mil

lion

S o u rc e : B e i j in g ’ s M a s t e r P la n n in g , 1 9 9 3 .

17

From Other Countries’ Experiences, China Has a Great Potential for Continuous Vehicle Growth

664

428501 523

598

8

136

764

0

200

400

600

800

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

Bra

zil

Me

xico

U.K

.

Fra

nce

Jap

an

Ca

na

da

U.S

.

Vehicles Per 1000 Persons

18

Relations between Vehicle Population and Emissions

100,000 vehicle population growth

Increasing emissions of 25,000t CO and 2,000t

NOx

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10. 0

排放量（万吨）

CO/ 10 NOx

220万辆260万辆300万辆 2007

年

19

Three cases in Beijing

• Formulating mobile source control

strategy from 1995 to 2010

• Evaluating the effectiveness of air

pollution control measures since 1998

• Prediction of air quality in 2008

20

Case I:Mobile Source Emission Inventory

(NOx, 1995, t / y)

21

Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS

●Spatial distribution of annual average concentrations in 1995

CO NOx

Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS

Pollution Share for Concentration

(%) Year Emissions,(t))

Pollution Share

for Emission

(%) Urban Area Downtown

1995年 107.5 76.8 76.5 86.3CO

1998年 129.0 82.7 84.1 89.5

1995年 9.38 40.2 68.4 72NOx

1998年 11.5 42.9 72.8 73.6

23

Case I: IMPACTS OF EMISSION CONTROL ON AIR QUALITY

•CO

•0•50

•100•150•200•250•300•350

•1995 •1998 •2002 •2010 •year

•10

thousa

nd

tons

•0•1•2•3

•NOx

•0•2•4•6•8

•10•12•14•16•18•20

•1995 •1998 •2002 •2010 •year

•10

thousa

nd t

ons

•0

•1

•2

•3

•The reduction potential of different control strategies

24

Case I: Government Action

☆ Beijing: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles

☆ Shanghai: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles

☆ Emission Standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles （GWPB1-1999）

☆ Standard for hazardous contents in gasoline （GWPB001-1999）

25

Effectiveness from four phases’ control measures

NOx PM10SO2

transport coalPhase 1 1. 31% 4. 52% 0. 27% 0. 4%Phase 2 11. 02% 9. 68% 2. 86% 3. 9%Phase 3 23. 39% 12. 84% 4. 77% 8. 8%Phase 4 27. 63% 15. 53% 6. 84% 11. 4%

NOx PM10SO2

transport coalPhase 1 1. 31% 4. 52% 0. 27% 0. 4%Phase 2 11. 02% 9. 68% 2. 86% 3. 9%Phase 3 23. 39% 12. 84% 4. 77% 8. 8%Phase 4 27. 63% 15. 53% 6. 84% 11. 4%

• emission reduction (baseline:1998 )

26

1998四期措施后相对于 年的削减率

0. 00%5. 00%

10. 00%15. 00%20. 00%25. 00%30. 00%35. 00%40. 00%45. 00%

SO2 NOx PM10

削减率，％

浓度监测值浓度计算值排放量

Effectiveness from four phases’ control measures

27

 

                   

Meet VKTDemand

Transport mode

Energy consumption

Emissions Air quality Meet environ. Requirement?

Scenarios for vehicle targeted measures, fuel-targeted measures, and transport system measures

Non-motorizedvehicles

Motorized vehicles

Emission factors

Traffic flow distribution

Policy directions

Walk Bicycle Railway Roadway

Light rail Subway

GIS support system

No

Yes

Cars

LDV

HDGV

HDDV

………

28

Tranportation MODE

Priorities: Rail, Public, Bicycle, Car

0

20

40

60

80

100

Bi cycl e Pub Rai l Car

E-bene. ,%T-bene. ,%

29

Future plan for Beijing’s Railroad

30

Clean transportation for Olympics

Subway: 1.3 million person-trip / day in 19992.5 million person-trip / day in 2007

Mass Transit: 9 million person-trip / day in 1999 18 million person-trip / day in 2007

34,000 clean fuel vehicle, 1300 pure CNG8 million bicycles

31

Future Consideration

CLEAN

VEHICLETECHNOLOGY

CLEAN

FUELS

APPROPRIATEMAINTENANCE

ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE

VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY

TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING

32

Case III:Prediction of PM10 Concentration in Beijing in 2008

•Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2)

-- For new vehicles

•EURO •1 •EURO •2 •EURO •3 •EURO 4

•Light-duty

•vehicles•Ⅰ•1999.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2007.1 •2010.

•Light-duty

•vehicles •Ⅱ•2000.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2007.1 •2010.

•High-duty

•vehicles

•2000.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2008.1 •2014

•Motorcycles •2001.1.1

33

Case III:Prediction of NOx Concentration in Beijing in 2008

•Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2)

-- For new vehicles

•EURO •1 •EURO •2 •EURO •3 •EURO 4

•Light-duty

•vehicles•Ⅰ•1999.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2007.1 •2010.

•Light-duty

•vehicles •Ⅱ•2000.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2007.1 •2010.

•High-duty

•vehicles

•2000.1.1 •2003.1.1 •2008.1 •2014

•Motorcycles •2001.1.1

34

概 述

Thank You!