copyright 2010 idc. bringing the private cloud to the data center matt eastwood group vice president...
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Copyright 2010 IDC.
Bringing the Private Cloud to the Data CenterBringing the Private Cloud to the Data Center
Matt EastwoodGroup Vice PresidentEnterprise Platforms Research
September 2010
Copyright 2010 IDC.
IT in the Cloud is a Journey…IT in the Cloud is a Journey…
The Market Has Been Cloud Washed…
What’s Next?
Enjoy the Ride
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Cloud Computing DefinedCloud Computing Defined
Cloud Computing – consumer and business products, services and solutions delivered in real-time over the Internet including:– Standard shared service (built for a market,
not a single customer)– Solution-packaged (“turnkey” integrating
appropriate resources)– Self-service– Elastic scaling (dynamic and fine-grained)– Service Metering (use-based pricing)– Ubiquitous Network Access (accessible via
the Internet)– Browser Based (standard UI technologies)– Published API (common Internet APIs)
Public:Open to a largely unrestricted universe of potential users; designed for a market, not a single enterprise
Private:Designed for, and access restricted to, a single enterprise (or extended enterprise); an internal shared resource, not a commercial offering; IT Org is the “vendor” of the shared/std service to its users
Deployment Models
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Cloud Adoption: Evolutionary vs. RevolutionaryCloud Adoption: Evolutionary vs. Revolutionary
Dynamic IT xSPs
A Look Back to 2005
PrivateCloud
PublicCloud
Traditional DatacenterPublicCloud
PrivateCloud
NewExistingElasticScaling
Dynamic IT
Migration‘Custom’
xSPs
New‘Bursting’
Copyright 2010 IDC.
AgendaAgenda
Cloud and Convergence
Attitudes Towards 'The Cloud'
Market Trends
Essential Guidance
Copyright 2010 IDC.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan.'07
Oct.'08
Sept.'09
Jan.'10
Speed time tomarket
Increasemarket share
Improvequality/accuracy
Increaserevenue
Increasecustomer sat.
Reduce costs
A more balanced view of end-user business goals is returning to market
With virtualization, focus has been on cutting costs
Customers are again beginning to look for additional business benefits from IT
Technology will clearly play an important role in future business initiatives
-16
+3
+6
+3
NC+4
Q. Prioritize the following business goals as they relate to your organization by allocating 100 points among them.
Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Surveys
The “New Normal”Shifting Business Goals Impact Technology GoalsThe “New Normal”Shifting Business Goals Impact Technology Goals
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Worldwide Server Market, 1996-2010Worldwide Server Market, 1996-2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Other
Unix
x86
-$20B +$11B+$5.5B -$17B
-30%
+23%
+8%
-27%
+22 Pts
-1 Pts
-31 Pts
‘97-’08Chang
e
Revenue (%)
55%
14%
23%
32%
45%
31%
Source: IDC Quarterly Server Tracker, Q4 2009
x86 Servers
Unix Servers
Other Servers
Copyright 2010 IDC.
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Q409 YOY Growth
4Q Rolling Shipments
Source: IDC Quarterly Server Forecast. June 2010
YOY Shipment Growth 4Q Rolling Shipments
Q309 Q410 +1M Units +16%
Server Deployments are Increasing Rapidly on Refresh
15%
45%
85%
100%
WW x86 Server Shipment Forecast:x86 Servers Continue to AcceleratingWW x86 Server Shipment Forecast:x86 Servers Continue to Accelerating
Q308 Q309 -1.7M -21%
Copyright 2010 IDC.
The Technology Catalyst:The Technology Catalyst:
0
5
10
15WW Growth 2009-2013
2.5x 2.7x
4.7x
8.4x
12.4x
2.3x1.3x
EfficiencyComplexityElastic ScalingOff Premise
Servers (M)
Blades (M)
Cores(M)
VMs (M)
Data(TBs)
Transactions 10G Ports
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Server Installed Base: The Evolution From Physical to VirtualServer Installed Base: The Evolution From Physical to Virtual
0
25,000,000
50,000,000
75,000,000
100,000,000
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
WW Server IB
Virtualization Leaves its Mark and Primes the Market for Change
Servers
WW Server Shipments
WW VirtualServer IB
’09-’13CAGR
31.5%
0.6%
6.5%
Source: IDC Server Virtualization 2009
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Virtualization is the Foundational Platform for the DatacenterVirtualization is the Foundational Platform for the Datacenter
0%
25%
50%
75%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
• More than half of all workloads (51%) will be virtualized by the end of 2010
• Two-thirds (69%) by 2013
• Only 12.8% of all physical servers are virtualized in 2009
• VM densities continue to rise predictably
• Averaging 6 VM’s per physical server in 2009 and 8.5 in 2013
2.1% Servers
12.8% Servers
22.3% Servers
WW Installed Workloads Virtualized
Copyright 2010 IDC.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
3.0 3.3 4.25.3 6.1
7.1
7.78.2
1.4M VMs 15M VMs
VM Cross Over
5%Shipments
21.6%Shipments
2013
WW Server Virtualization Shipment Forecast, 2005-2013
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Virtualization Management Gap
WW Spending on Servers, Power and Cooling, and Management/Administration
Customer Spending ($B)
56 million virtual machines by
2012
New Economic Model for the Datacenter Shifts to Automation Tools are a RequirementNew Economic Model for the Datacenter Shifts to Automation Tools are a Requirement
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Virtualization is Foundation for CloudVirtualization is Foundation for Cloud
Hypervisor
Mobility
Metering & Chargeback
ProvisionConsolidate Virtualize Automate
Hypervisor Hypervisor
Mobility
Hypervisor
Mobility
Metering & Chargeback
Self Provision
Cloud
45% Sites18% Market
90% of Virt. Sites
20% of Virt. Sites
10% of Virt. Sites
CloudInternal vs. External
18%
20%
10%
90%
Source: IDC Server Virtualization 2009
Copyright 2010 IDC.
IT Optimization by the Numbers: Houston We Have a ProblemIT Optimization by the Numbers: Houston We Have a Problem
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Q. What were the top three areas of savings? (N=400)
% of Responses % of Annual Spend
Costs Drop 25% but 80/20 Rule Still Applies
RE Support P&C ServerHW
SystemSW
Staff
-15% -5% -9% -8% +20% +17%
Source: IDC Server Virtualization 2009
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Who’s Embracing the CloudWho’s Embracing the Cloud
3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75
Q. Rate utilization of public cloud over next 3 years (1-10 Scale)?
Cloud is divisive concept with SMB and mature virtualization site favoring
SMB’s consuming SaaS applications
Startups and enterprises with large scale Web infrastructures
Enterprise developers with one-off projects
Compute intensive tasks
Total
<500 Employees
5,000+
<15%
>50% Virtualized
500-4,999
15-<50%
Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)
Copyright 2010 IDC.
0% 25% 50% 75%
Workloads in the CloudWorkloads in the Cloud
Q. Which applications will you run in Cloud in 3 years:
Pri
vate
Ag
no
stic
Workloads remain the critical pivot point in the datacenter
Virtualization is hot and it impacts cloud adoption profiles
Users with high rates of business change favor cloud models
Bus. Processing
DSS
VOIP
IT Infra
App. Dev.
Tech.
Collaboration
Web Infra
Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)
32%18%16%13%14%8%31%41%21%
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Server Workloads TopologyServer Workloads Topology
Business Processing ERP CRM OLTP Batch
Collaborative E-Mail Workgroup
Decision Support Data Warehousing/Mart Data Analysis/Mining
Web Infrastructure Streaming Media Web Serving
App. Development
IT Infrastructure File & Print Networking Proxy/Caching Security Systems Management
Industrial R&D
18 Workloads in 7 Workload Categories
Collaborative
Business Processing
Decision Support
Web Infrastructure
App. Development
IT Infrastructure
TechnicalSource: IDC Server Workloads 2009
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Three layers of cloud computingThree layers of cloud computing
Cloud Applications
Software as a Service (SaaS)
Cloud Platform
Platform as a Service (PaaS)
Cloud Infrastructure
Infrastructure Services (IaaS)
IT Cloud Services
Server Storage NetworkStorage Network
Workloads Platforms
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Actual Mileage May Vary: Migration Starting PointActual Mileage May Vary: Migration Starting Point
OLTP
CRM
File Serving
ERP
Collaborative
Sys Mgmt
TechnicalCaching
Security
Networking
Data Analysis
Data Mining
Streaming
Web
App. Dev.
Source: IDC Server Virtualization 2009
$44.9 Billion$16
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Cloud Implementation HelpCloud Implementation Help
Q. Who will help build out your private cloud? Larger companies and
leaders favor internal IT
Smaller orgs and laggards favor server vendors
Virtualization vendors are broadly favored
Those planning private clouds are most likely to favor Internal IT
Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Local VAR
Outsourcer
Systems Management
ISV
Storage Vendor
Systems Integrator
Networking Vendor
Server Vendor
Virtualization Vendor
Internal IT Department
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Cloud LeadershipCloud Leadership
Q. Who is the leading vendor? Comparing mature and understood (virt) with unknown (cloud)
The evolution to private cloud will be led by traditional IT
Traditional IT suppliers lag in Public cloud
Larger orgs name IBM
SMB favors Google, Amazon and Salesforce 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Virt Private Public
Don't Know
Other
Salesforce.com
Amazon
Cisco
Microsoft
HP
IBM
VMWare
55%
45%
50%
Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Attitudes Towards ConvergenceAttitudes Towards Convergence
Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Total(N=255)
Laggards(N=131)
Leaders(N=124)
Don't Know
Other
FCoE
Storage &Networking
Server &Network
Server &Storage
Virtualization& Automation
Q. Most appeal w/ convergence?• End-users rate likelihood of converged adoption at 3.6 of a 10 scale
• The sever will be the focal point for IT convergence
• Larger companies, leaders and leading virtualization adopters favor most
• Service providers more likely to favor network led convergence
3.6
3.3
3.9
Copyright 2010 IDC.
New Business Cycle for ITConvergence Reigns for the next 10 yearsNew Business Cycle for ITConvergence Reigns for the next 10 years
19901985 1995
Mainframe/m
inicomputer
Integrated architecture
2000 2005 2010
Integrated architecture
Unix/RISC
Modular archite
cture
Transactional applications
and Database
ERP, Analytics and Datamarts
Application Development
Web
File/Print and Networking
Collaborative
Integrated
architecture
X86 Servers
Modular archite
cture
2015
Microservers?
Compute/Memory
Boards?
Modular
architecture
Bu
sin
es
s V
alu
e
Converged Infrastructure
& Private Clouds
Virtualizatio
n
Virtualizatio
n
PublicClouds
Lower Cost of Computing Per Unit of Work
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Intersection Technology OfferingsIntersection Technology Offerings
Traditional IT
Private Cloud
HostingOutsourcing
Public Cloud
Traditional Servers
Converged Infrastructure
Micro ServersHeterogeneous Infrastructure:Server, storage and network resource pools assigned as needed to business services
Homogeneous Infrastructure:multi-node computing design including processor, memory, network, storage, P&C in a single chassis
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Market Segments Continue to Shift:Understanding the Impact of CloudMarket Segments Continue to Shift:Understanding the Impact of Cloud
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% Server Spend
17%
81%
2%
Traditional IT– Heterogeneous– Legacy & Proprietary
Private Cloud– Bladed and Virtualized– Consolidation Play– Existing Workloads
Public Cloud– Homogeneous– Dense/Low Cost– New Workloads
Private Cloud
Public Cloud
Traditional IT
93%
6%1%
20%
70%
10%
Units
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Cloud and Convergence, 2013The Whole is Smaller than the PartsCloud and Convergence, 2013The Whole is Smaller than the Parts
Networking Equipment
$62 Billion
Storage Systems
$32 Billion
Server Hardware
$50 Billion
2013 MktNot $144B But $123B
File&Print
Workgroup
Streaming
$10B
CAGR (10-13 )Not 3.2% But -2.0%
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Cloud and Convergence, 2013 A View of a Bifurcating Server MarketCloud and Convergence, 2013 A View of a Bifurcating Server Market
$52B: Bifurcation
Non x8638%
Datacenter34%
SmallSite
19%
Scale-out9%
Copyright 2010 IDC.
An Alternative View (or is it)Workload OptimizationAn Alternative View (or is it)Workload Optimization
$52B: Optimization
BI12%
Infrastructure61%
BA 12%
OLTP/DB15%
Copyright 2010 IDC.
Essential GuidanceEssential Guidance
CIOs pay attention to time, money and people
Downturns drive inflections and change on recovery
Workloads are the critical pivot point for cloud and convergence decisions
Many political barriers remain in the DC User demographics change constantly
