cost of renewable energy silicon module (c-si) monocrystalline silicon module (c-si) 多結晶系...
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COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
再生可能エネルギーのコスト
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY REvision 2013 – CREATING A NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE, TOKYO
26 FEBRUARY 2013
中村有吾 YUGO NAKAMURA
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 2 / / / /
内容
1. 国内市場の状況 Japan market summary
2. コストの現状 Cost analysis
3. 日本の課題 Challenges Japan faces
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 3 / / / /
政府の電源別2030年電力供給シナリオ (TWh)
Source: National Policy Unit(NPU) Note; GoJ’s scenario as of 29 June 2012. A conservative scenario assuming nuclear supplies 15% of power as of 2030. Hydro includes ‘pumped hydro’.
688527
288
147
89
118
25
191
2181,091
2010 2030
Energy savingNon-hydroHydroNuclearFossil
9822.3%8.2%
19.4%
12.0%
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 4 / / / /
政府の電源別再生可能エネルギー導入シナリオ 2010年、2020年、2030年
Source: NPU, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: B&W=biomass and waste. 2010 B&W supply and capacity are
adjusted based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates. Hydro excludes ‘pumped hydro’.
Source: NPU, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: B&W=biomass and waste. 2010 B&W supply and capacity are
adjusted based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates. Hydro excludes ‘pumped hydro’.
再生可能エネルギーからの電力供給 (TWh) 再生可能エネルギー累計設置容量 (GW)
66
67
3
110
22
33
17
35
0
101
8
24
4
4
0
77
3
21
Wind
Solar
Marine
Hydro
Geothermal
B&W
201020202030
34.9
63.3
1.0
23.8
3.1
5.5
9.5
33.5
0.0
22.2
1.1
4.0
2.4
3.6
0.0
21.6
0.5
3.3
Wind
Solar
Marine
Hydro
Geothermal
B&W
201020202030
バイオマス・廃棄物
地熱
水力
海洋
太陽光
風力
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 5 / / / /
日本の電力小売価格推移、1994-2011年度 (JPY/kWh)
Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (ANRE/METI) Note: Prices exclude consumption tax (5% as of February 2013)
24.8
21.319.4
16.817.2
14.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Residential
Commercial and industrial
Weighted average
1995:wholesale liberalization
2000:retail liberalisation (min. 2MW)
2005:retail liberalisation (min. 50kW)
電灯
電力
加重平均
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 6 / / / /
電源別主な買取価格と小売価格、回避可能原価 (JPY/kWh)
Source: ANRE/METI Note: Consumption tax excluded. Tariffs apply for 15 years for geothermal, and 20 years for others.
13
17
24
32
39
26
40
24
40
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Residential
Commercial&residential
Residential
Commercial&residential
Avoidablecosts
バイオマス 地熱 水力 太陽光 風力
電灯
電力
回避可能原価
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 7 / / / /
内容
1. 国内市場の状況 Japan market summary
2. コストの現状 Cost analysis
3. 日本の課題 Challenges Japan faces
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 8 / / / /
前年同期比2013年第1四半期版平準化発電コスト ($/MWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Carbon forecasts from the Bloomberg New Energy Finance European Carbon Model with an average price to 2030 of $48/mt. Coal and natural gas prices from the US EIA and BNEF. Percentage change represents change from Q1 2012. 1USD=JPY 90
0 100 200 300 400 500
CHPCoal fired
Natural gas CCGTNuclear
Small hydroLarge hydro
Geothermal - flash plantWind - onshore
Municipal solid wasteLandfill gas
Biomass - incinerationGeothermal - binary plant
Biomass - gasificationPV - c-Si tracking
PV - thin filmBiomass - anaerobic digestion
PV - c-SiSTEG - tower & heliostat w/storage
STEG - parabolic troughWind - offshore
Fuel cellsSTEG - parabolic trough + storage
STEG - tower & heliostatSTEG - LFR
Marine - tidalMarine - wave
LCOE BNEF EU Carbon Forecast Q1 2013 Central Scenario Q1 2012 Central Scenario
-24%
-4%
-+17%
+5%-
+14%
-29%
-1%
-
-
$1,058 +9%$861 +10%
+2%+9%
-
+3%
+1%
-10%-28%
-
-
+6%
+2%
-14%
-
太陽光発電
陸上風力発電
JPY9/kWh JPY18/kWh JPY27/kWh JPY36/kWh JPY45/kWh
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 9 / / / /
太陽光発電平準化発電コスト ($/MWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Prices are in nominal dollars. 1USD=JPY 90.
Thin film
c-Si
c-Si tracking
050
100150200250300350
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009 2010 2011 2012 2013
135.4
Q1 2013 12.2円/kWh
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 10 / / / /
風力発電平準化発電コスト ($/MWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Prices are in nominal dollars. 1USD=JPY 90.
Onshore
Offshore
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009 2010 2011 2012 2013
81.4
217.8
陸上Q1 2013 7.3円/kWh
洋上Q1 2013 19.6円/kWh
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 11 / / / /
2012年1月第1週-2013年1月第1週 ソーラーグレードポリシリコン価格推移 ($/KG)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Solar grade polysilicon price. Dates represent first day of the week for which the price has been averaged, ie, 8 August represents quote for the week 8-14 August.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3502
Jan
16 J
an30
Jan
13 F
eb27
Feb
12 M
ar26
Mar
09 A
pr23
Apr
07 M
ay21
May
04 J
un18
Jun
02 J
ul16
Jul
30 J
ul13
Aug
27 A
ug10
Sep
24 S
ep08
Oct
22 O
ct05
Nov
19 N
ov03
Dec
17 D
ec31
Dec
2012 2013
China price International price
16.1
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 12 / / / /
2012年1月第1週-2013年1月第1週 シリコン系モジュール国際スポット価格推移 ($/W)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Dates represent first day of the week for which the price has been averaged, ie, 8 August represents quote for the week 8-14 August.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.202
Jan
16 J
an
30 J
an
13 F
eb
27 F
eb
12 M
ar
26 M
ar
09 A
pr
23 A
pr
07 M
ay
21 M
ay
04 J
un
18 J
un
02 J
ul
16 J
ul
30 J
ul
13 A
ug
27 A
ug
10 S
ep
24 S
ep
08 O
ct
22 O
ct
05 N
ov
19 N
ov
03 D
ec
17 D
ec
31 D
ec
2012 2013
Multicrystalline silicon module (c-Si) Monocrystalline silicon module (c-Si)
0.82 多結晶系
単結晶系
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 13 / / / /
要素別発電事業規模太陽光発電設備コスト単価推移 2010年-2012年 ($/W)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: 1USD=JPY 90
1.851.35
0.73
0.30
0.21
0.12
0.50
0.50
0.27
0.41
0.41
0.32
0.18
0.18
0.15
3.24
2.65
1.59
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2011 2012
OtherEPCBOPInverterModule
143千/kW
Utility-scale
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 14 / / / /
要素別太陽光発電設備コスト単価推移 2010年-2012年
業務用規模($/W) 住宅用($/W)
2.411.76
0.91
0.41
0.28
0.26
0.67
0.68
0.65
0.64
0.63
0.60
0.52
0.81
0.52
4.64
4.16
2.95
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2011 2012
OtherEPCBOPInverterModule
2.041.46
0.78
0.38
0.25
0.19
0.62
0.62
0.40
0.51
0.51
0.45
0.47
0.36
0.27
4.01
3.20
2.09
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2011 2012
OtherEPCBOPInverterModule
Note: 1USD=JPY 90 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
188千/kW
266千/kW
Commercial-scale Residential-scale
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 15 / / / /
内容
1. 国内市場の状況 Japan market summary
2. コストの現状 Cost analysis
3. 日本の課題 Challenges Japan faces
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 16 / / / /
月別国内再生可能エネルギープロジェクト 発表日2011年1月-2013年1月 (MW, プロジェクト数)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Data as of 12 February 2013. B&W=biomass and waste. Projects less than 1MW are not included. Projects without specific site information are not included.
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13
WindSolarHydroGeothermalB&W
Cumulative number of projects(right-axis)
Tohoku quake FiT bill passed
FiT launch
東日本大震災 買取法成立
買取制度開始
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 17 / / / /
住宅用太陽光システム価格と補助金対象限度額(JPY/W)
Source: J-PEC, ANRE/METI
Note: Red line represents system cost threshold for subsidy application. As of April 2012 national cash subsidy is JPY30/W for system up to JPY550/W. If the system cost is up to JPY475/W, extra JPY50/W shall be subsidised as well.
700650
600
475
550614561
518
455
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
限度額
システム価格
Residential-scale solar
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 18 / / / /
日本・ドイツ・米カリフォルニア州小規模太陽光システム価格2008年第1四半期-2012年第4四半期 ($/W)
Source: BSW-Solar, California Solar Initiative filings, JPEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Average sub-10kW German system cost Average California residential system cost
Japanese residential system cost average Chinese multicrystalline silicon module price
日本 カ州
ドイツ
モジュール
Small-scale solar
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 19 / / / /
太陽光認定設備規模別コスト推移、2012年第3・4四半期(JPY/W)
Source: 21 January 2013, METI Note: Cost of FiT approved projects, 3Q-4Q 2012. 4Q 2012 excludes December.
Assumption used for 2012 rate
472
369319 325
437375
273 280
10-50kW 50-500kW 500-1,000kW 1MW+
3Q 2012 4Q 2012
Solar
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 20 / / / /
太陽光システム単価と買取価格推計 (JPY/kWh, JPY/W)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Project IRR=6%. Bloomberg New Energy Finance has modeled tariff pricing based on assumptions the pricing committee uses.
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350
35.2
Solar
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 21 / / / /
現行買取価格における太陽光システム単価・土地リース単価の変化とプロジェクトIRR (%, JPY/M2・YEAR)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Bloomberg New Energy Finance has modeled tariff pricing based on assumptions the pricing committee uses. Vertical axis represents target project IRRs. Horizontal axis represents leasing cost per square meter.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
JPY325/W
JPY273/W
Solar
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, 26 FEBRUARY 2013 22 / / / /
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再生可能エネルギーのコスト
COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY 中村有吾 YUGO NAKAMURA, [email protected]