cp'4 - national bureau of economic research · niin ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq...

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Page 1: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

CLcqle nJCjnqu © UOl!CQ !AU 10 IJJC 2OflLCCxi uo o xccq o bibp wcA pc dcioq iiqiorn xbpcii buuiou bLoAqq ip njj© Tôt P CPLI /A CI0II!4 Uq CP4iObPCL HU VII LJU2 LccLAq JJOL C1OIJ O

IpO O JJC 4POIJJ BI1LGr1 O ECOUOIIJTC JçccffLcpECOUOWA uq ECOUOW!C }IICWOU2 VUA obiuiou cxbLc2cq poc oj, qJ nlpoL iuq uo1ycqcwc bnpI!pcL jpi bibci bci. o k1BE1 bLoww u cAcJobuJu o qJ vuJJ.!cuHOOAL cq' ')t OU34t.V. Ob3WV wiou ciu 1.otVV oaiou: K1'"uo/Iqcu uq bL JuI!u jpL pcjbjnj qcnzou' jp brbci iiijj bbc 92 cp9bL !u KQA!uJJJC 9IUJJOL2 WWIC E!CPQULU KCA!U HOOACL B0pc14 VIW" qcJIscLa I(UUG1JJ

4OACWL J4C"P'4 NV 03fl8

JØØ 9CJT2CU2 ACUJ1CWVJJOMVF BI1KEVfl Oh ECOMONIC I�E2EVBCH

/AOLIUU b9bGL M0

CPT.!0bIJGL H9UC2CP9LI R C9IOI#2

VNEBICVM NVCKOECOMONIC HI21OIAHE2IOKICVr' NVCKOECOMONIC2 VI.ID

MBEK IAOKKIMG bVhEI 2EK1E2

Page 2: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

FQI q nbhoW $13814 tQQI 13dm3VO4

UMA DIMOMODHO$IDAM JADI$IOT2IH Y$IOT2IH DIMOMODHO$LDAM MADIS13MA

TDA$ITflA

bn.s itho3dh 3!ffl0fl033013&fl 1311o 'ro3ii1 31ffl0n033013&n flR 3f1W

Ibq io 3m13 ino1 n&fi iom i1Io io3ic1 3irnono33o13M VfW!3rn3frIOnO33o13sm

aRri cI3ifIw rnono 3ch lo n*b ioik na 3! ".ain3rnh3qx3 h31!olino3"

W3IV LS3flOii11 3rli 10 3iih3j3JnEfb gninfl3b 311T .abodim 3nimonooi3fim iol noi3&i1qmi

v1o3211 3cli nthIJI3ni iaRq Thi di 113111w nI w :"n3bn3q3b IIiBq" no aiaRdqm3 ii i nf33rl3mA w3iv3rI idT .'mono di lo 5w331n32 3(11 nirb 1113 113(11 bits a)130d2 lo

1s31oIoborh3m mo wsth ol bris w Isimn3moq ii 3si3w11i ol vjoithl 31ffl0fl0330135ffl

.noi1s3i1qmi

1shomid Its ni 2rn3flsq 3I33 uoivdo 3om 3(11 iol 3nuo335 1153 I3bom "nsin'){" llsoFioiiñ instioqmi sw mibih sw tsnirnoT4 .ionns 13bom "1s3xaRI3 w3n" 3111w thoh3q

nirno3noik A .21dio nsdm to3id mail rioqqua 1om vii 3thih sw lo f3bom mo bits

i 3n5fI3 3n3up311-wo1 rs(1i noi3qmus 3113 i a3d3solqqs Is3!aRI3-w3n bns i15i3n3)I diod lo bod bnsm3b-3is31s won 3is1iu1li 3I3'(3 i3nuX di lo iolir1 3rlT .bnsm3b 03 auonox

bns 1113 ninns31 1s lo 3irnono33 .1qqu is ni nsnb won3obn3 33ubolq 1153

l3ilnoll b115 nibIiud li3 lo aJx3lno3 \ij. 3111 nidliw 'nsm -- nor1s133qx3 lo 33iI31311O3 -disq" fqqua 33 315 r1i niism ni lnsfloqmi 'Itsiq23 n33c1 vsrf 03 m -- iuo 13(13011.8 nd sd (noi1siui 3n3mn13vo '(hsIiJ3inscl) noilsvonni 1snoiiu3iinI ".in3bn3q3b

.Iqqu 33 315 iii 3nsn13 auon3obn3 lo noLl35b 3(11 nil inioq 3f1sfk) thiu3oirt uonrnobn3 no iaRdqrn3 'W31V 1s3holid 311T

3(13 (1Ltfl3bi 03 thori3q 31qm52 tiod 13V0 2iI5ns noi-oiz bits I3nsq lo w 13i55i S lo .abock 31ffl0fl0330135ff1 lo 233fl3tJ3fi03 bits 3311JO

3nsH l3dqoithdD thimolsD .W 3hsf1D 3nono33 lo ln3mnsq3U 33nsniI lo ln3mflsq3G

sinsv1nin3q lo 1iivinU nisqmsdD-snsthU Is ionillI lo 3i213vinIU AIsW Thu3oJ 8!VE I3W 33ri3fflffIOD O4E

.tO!! Aq SinfqI3bBlid O8I JI nisqmsdD $13814 bits

Page 3: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

MOITDUUOSIThI .1

d bsoq noiisup oi Iebom Iiiiii lo noiioiIqq efli d 01 zi smono3eoi3zm esi sW

z bew&v lliwau aeui lo is2 owi oi e11, eiioedi bn absl 3unono3eoI3BM .çiodi 3imono38ol3sm

-r1id) nnsi-nod bns ;ashinuo3 ,o\bn bob aaois ibwo 3imono3e iii znoiithEv rrn8i-not :81dw1sq5

I3hiqm3 .a&33 thaud s oi benels, lluau — iucpuo bim tnsmoIqine ni noitthzv (3neupeft

2Innq 10 iaif if3 nioj isdi abit daiIcJc1a n bn siiodi ni1qmo3 nom ebuj sno qied flB3 !I3IS881

.shosfIt wsn d bsnisfqxe ed ol

bhoW bnos2 edi 53ni2 boieq edi ioI sisb no Isi sibui 3fli8monO3sO1m 1o ihoj&n iasv edT

edi nidi32sb o1 !iilew £ib emo :iBb iwioq no 'GIno fliW301 iol noasi boos ed n eiedT .iW

se ieih&e ni b513811o3 ion siew ehosi1i monosoim noms ni1nimii3aib bn monoeoiasm

monozeoi3&n sill lo bu1a sill — io32irl 3imono3soE)sm ns3 isdW .w s1dilei asI in beisllo3 siew

5in02 isflo m ioiziH canBi3thsmonoso1sm bnt alimono3eo,zsm 03 ,sflo — II isW bhoW eiolsd

sill — zsvlsamedi iii aiisielni sm isdi zlnevs nislqxs ol ioedl 31in0fl0350i3SW lqqs ol siiinufloqqo

bn6 iosill 3imonooso13m niIqqB 10 -ieflsin £ Ieism & idi mB .eIqmxe iol noizsiqsU leiD

nO .3hlsmono3eoim io monoeom nnthni 01 iolid niw Ion ioiaid 01 thodism l3hiqme

li,olid lo noililqmi 3iiisfnonoe bnB 1lizdls,osrb lsui1 eu IzI*itdiIf 03 ai se &di ni 2u301

sthaud n&iiiemA no d3iswi

10 znoilasup lo 21283 iiinisq 03 iiib si,s emil bneixe 01 Iqmi2 bsw need esil issq sill esmilsmo2

sis 2mibsizq wen as cmii isvo s3nsib fliw asibjjla ibua lo abodism bns £Isb silT .lasismni ineTiu3

21 dasoiqqs audi lo slqmsxs lsimnsuftni bns auomsl Thom sill aqsrhe .aiaimono3eoism d bs3uboilth

bns taift sill ldgwis saw silT .tt% tui3 tjt' ¶(c%M (QI) a'3iawtb2 bits nsmbeii1

silT .bemslsi ls2ol3 siB smo3ni lanimon bits snom isdi noiiiaoqoiq lailsisnom sill lo meem Isiinszjflni Thom

sioM x.smii lo naqa nol £ tevo noilsi3oaas cdi lo assnmwdoi cdl no !sisl besad saw Insmum 'iodliis

ssisdsb evlossi 03 stab 163iioisid 01 beinum evad asitsa smii isnoI lo 131552 in slaimono3eot35m (Ilne3e1

edt luods seisdeb olni sislanail nsfto 1311w aIooibs Mlsiaasl3 wee" bits "nsiaene)I wee" sill nsswled

.snsd3 1si*olonIbei bits ,ss3hq sssw lo asiitsqoiq Ia3iI3(3

Page 4: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

2boheq Ihoithl mo1 ib IhJ3inq ol nwib need evsd aiimono3ecn3Em 32S3 5mo nI

viu eIqmxe ,o1 — isjdi ems sill no 1b 1Evfl2oq flB nEdi iiIup iisd lo e £lb sodi swsed

isvrisini ernO bnnoqmi sioM .(woled 2w321b ew ) OQ1 bn thQ8! sill mon snsrb eizi ssw 10

siom Idiaoq bns 3iimib siom si isdi monoe silt ol rAaoil2 eluliino3 m arneve mwsiq bns

.lnioq ni sa& £ i noi2asiqsU ueit) sill' .boiisq iW1Oq edt ni b5r1u330 isdi 130r12 ns rudi .evijuzr1citni

— 'Isi iwm imonos daidw no b eu lo iIsb ioam edT" no1 beion n6mbthL notliM aA

fl0i16flv lo gni I1m2 silt i — insmheqxe bsvhino3 1elisdh1sb nErli is1116i s3nsheqxs d bstixensg

.q Q1) zsqmons sili

flO iili1 bsrI fls I&Ii "arnemiieqxe !S3i101iil" supinu lo 33i1JO £ a liitsw sd o1 ns tasq silT

bidduH bnE aiiimolsD sIqmsxs io1 .2is1zm aiIoq io atahosdioi3Bm 01 ieieitii lnenIJ3 lo aflOii51Jp

lo xsl ffioiq bstudiiiibnu bsvil-tjoul sill 01 t3sjdiJ2 amifl d biq s1i xi I6ni m bevisdo ew (lQ1)

silt siuasem 01 (slubelb2 xi 1sni1Em sviaaeirnq £ iltiw niniss benisisi bnxst d3idw) V€Q1-ô€Q1

13511s e3nlnft lo 1o3 wobd silt ni 2s3n8isThb wod woilE 01 bn amifl ot e3nBnft lsfristxe lo 3o3 wobsd

ieiiI lo lilgi! ni snsnoqmi wsn no sAt alnemhsqxe 1iWn a(Iotid lo emo2 .toivsrled tnsmlevni

tq iii tsisini bewensi OVQ1 sill 10 sboaiqs noitsftni-d3iil silT .5iTh2i i(3iIOq bnE e3nsilsqXs

tdt laBq eu ni sn6rb emisi 311oq iedisdw lo noitasup sill ni bns noi1flnhsqd riliw zs3nsiisqxs

.(dl8QI 18Q1 inei2) livib Issi ni anoiisnno3 iojsm dtiw beimoas siew noitsilni slid bsbns

Isaiioithl emeiixs no d3lsszsi wen bstqmoiq ati3fleb lsisbsI gnith isvo si,evoirno3 O8Q1 edt 3nnuU

d8Q1 s8Ql dtim) sisi tasistni ixis noiisftni 01 1ni1 iiedt bns Thnq edt iii tiai1eb iIhI lo aelqmsxs

.(V8QI ,onsfl 8Q1 nsv d88Qt 88Q1 thimoIsD

Isi3sq2 bns sMb lo niiia no1 nEil eiom eieYIo iotaid 3imoflO3eoi35m tsdl euis 111w ew lufi

iol anoiissilqmi tnEnoqmi sd d3idw mono3eoissm edt lo notW\st 1 ontik flB Etsu II .e1qmsxe

3mono3eo135m bisbnsi lo noi1siLqqs edt ton ai imonoseo,ssm Is3notaiH .bodtsm shiemono3eoi35m

nie,elni ,evoib 01 taBq edt lo noiisiolqxe evit3e1s edt io ,tsq tnstib edt moft slsb 01 Looi

01 dasoiqqs svitstrxtIs ns — snsd3 3imono3eoi38m luodi 1153ho1Eid niithdf 2111 ;atnemheqxs

Page 5: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

.isq insi2ib bni irissi sib moft ibod ib niIn -ibq" no aizsdqrns 231 21 monosoim edi lo wsiv 1shoiaid sib lo 3i3ths33smd3 ninitsb silT

asiisa emil lo 2sixlsqolq noiisIsr1o3 IEhs sib 03 i1si ion sob s3nsbnsqsb 1112q Is3iloieiH e" .sznsbnsqsb

10 noiis38icpsini 2'i2imono3so13sm meianim sib ol isinuo3 &iiri weiv IS3iloi2id sill beebnI .slsb

22s3oq aiidao12 woensornod lIi1tnss hid ninsd3 lo anoii&ilss, sib a shs2 smii liioiaiil

iitiiu iii 2snsd3 wonsgoxe 03 asmo3iuo amono3sol32m sisIs Isdi 2511n noiisthmilqo moil niilusi

isib smuaas 2sibuj2 3nismono3sol3sm mssn2nisM .ainss 1o 2382 noiism,olni bns insmwobns anoii3nu1

2IrIsn6 .8111331J132 3fflOflO35(fl3S bexft nO gnhl3S aA3Od2 wonsoxs d beisisne sis sisb ni 2noiishsv

silT .eisismsisq nihsbnu 211 1o 2sulsv sib gnibubm siuiIn12 isili lo siiflsn sib Isevsi ns sisb sib 111

.aA3od2 wonsgoxs sib 1o bnsbneqsbth 1u330 25nsd3 Isiu33Lr132 isib lud srnii isvo sn5d3 'sm siU331r112

rnonoos sill 1o lasq u sill ibidw ni asw asiolqxs issiino3 iii es3nsbnsqsb disq I3ilo32iH

.monos sib 1o si1J131n32 sib snsd3 33s11e ilsib bns bod2 lo polald sib nibul3rn

;niirissl 1o iIuas £ as snsib asliri noialsb :asw lo 3siisv £ ni Ilsali alaslinam s3flsbflsqsb ibs

evsd ainsvs smo2 .alnss 1o atnisliano3 sib sBnsd3 (3iIduq bns sisvliq) anoiisvonni Isnoiinliiani

bns ashrz noiai3sb sw sib no s3nsuftni iisib duoiib monos sib 1o siuiul sib io1 s3nsnoqrni insnsmisq

.snsd3 anOiiuiilaiu

sis d3iiiw — iasq sib 1o aslmono3s sill bns monoe asbol nsswisd as3nsisThb Mu1irI1"

Isupinu slsb I&hojaiil sism isdw i1 iii sis — sisb 1siioiaid biovs 03 flOSSSl £ as bewsiv asmismoa

bod sill moil niibvisvs — monos rnsborn sib qu sAsm isib asiWssl silT .ataimono3eoiesm 01 !ulsw

— "anoiluiliani" sithsb isib a,oivsdsd bits aehn sib or "oIomIi" astuhilanoa isdi sbslwonl 1o

1o dot sdi 1o flsq ai snsda Isiin3lrIia d3ue lo inuoos ni1sl bits Bnibnsiziebnu II .smii isvo bsqolsvsb

.iesq sill nibiovs on ai sisiii neil — ai ii svsilsd ew bits —

asimono3soisrn

isib niaiicpua ion aili mono3soi3sm sill o wsiv Is3rIo.taul edt 1 a,snsl sib nsviO

insisThb san bits aris(pslnuo3 "mssiianism' usd1 nsib anoilasup ineisThb las nsfto "ansi3itJsmoiL3oi35m"

sib) sgnsib !anoiiuiilani 1o aniiio sib siolqxs sib i81u3i1isq iii .anoiiasup saoib iswans 03 abodlsin

Page 6: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

nsflo suiT .ssnsth sasdi lo ssnsupssno sib siusssm bits (snsil3 ni 1111281 IsdI ainsvs islu3thsq

-non lo s Isns ,anoii3ss-22rn3 bits slsb Isnsq no ni1s1 bits ,ainsmom 31h3sqs is 1ssob nbLoo1 ssiiupsx

.inioq £ $U15 01 ssiiss smb lo snu1is no1 usd1 isilisi nit1si-zo1s boos bits ,noiisrniolni sviisiiinsup

amono3eol3srn n&rismA lo wsiv$1 8v1138182 £ sbivrnq sw 3siF1 :owl sis ssss aidi iii sso nO

sis slqmss sassini 01 — asaoqiuq lo isiisv £ io1 sisb 1siioisid lo assu Isiineloq silt sisflaulli ol vioiaid

ol bits tssq sill molt atnsmhsqxe supinu diiw issisini tnsnu3 lo anoiiasup assibbs 01 a1sbom niiasi ioI

Lnoiiuiitani 10 nziioqmi sib is1uiisq iii) monos sib 1o wsiv 1siioisir1 sill 1o asan sib ststisnomsb

iisdi bits aslqmsxs sasdi ni saiis isib asijaai 1sigoIoborftsm iuo wsib bits siasdqms sw bno3s2 .(snsrI3

.ni1sbom h1sfnono3s iol anoulsi1qmi

Insilsa sib lo wsjv-isvo a'fl floii3ss iltiw anisd (zOiaif1 3imOflO3soi35rn fls3iismA lo wsivsi iuO

no asawo1 zf3idw a8iiinns3 ibsiinswi bus ibnesienin sib RnhzJb monoeoism 2.U sib luods ais1

asaau3aib III noii3s .sshsa emit aiznono3so135m noms noiisizSvo3 Ia ansttsq ni ensib bus 1iuthino3

3imono3sol3sm 3nsupeiI-tfid lo sfsbom noms niisnimhaaib iol sisb isibo bits sasib lo assu sib

wsn" bits "nsiasns)I wen" nsswisd daiuniiaib at slsb 1siioisü1 Ia asan no aiJ3oI eW .anoiisuiwft

.aet1ibin eiiq bits ssw iol anoilsnslqxs nsiasnsX wsn noms daiuni1aib 01 bits amibsisq "153!aasl3

3Ufl0O35Oi35 iii acnsnsq lsi13 auoivdo isom sib tol inuo33s ns sisbom nsizsrnsX Isib suis sW

osls 8iS sisbom 15)iaas13 wsl4 .ionns alsbom "15312as13 wen" elidw aboitsq lsthotaid Us ni asldsiisv

sio1sisib 1sli Inn zmsss II .sBnsth IszioIombe,t lo siuisn edt no s3nebivs Is3iloisid ibiw ineiaiano3ni

insmJ3 au iii lassi is ioeiIl sI33 aasniaud Issi tol noqqua ibum isfIo 01 svoiq Iliw stsb Is3hoiaid Isdi

nu atatmonosoism d bsiissdqms-sb need sad ibidw) iibiii esw Isnimon isib euis osis sW .nnol

lo aisbom smoa Isib bus aI1os1 ni1sieus ni 1I&itotaid tnanoqmi saw ("supiiiia orisfi" sib 01 sanoqasi

.azsibo usd1 i01aid molt hoqqua ernm svis3sl alao3 sviis3oIIs all bus 'uibih ssw Isnimon

wonsoxs no aiasdqme Isaisb-wsn sib isdtisn anoi3su13uft 3neupe1I-woI 01 l3eqasI ibiW

ls3noiaid sisH .1rwos eielqmo3 £ s,&fto asiiibiii Isnimon nsiasnsX ion snsd3 Isal3oIonibel

("s133 atsnu)L" sib) noilsvisado lo tutu nbasieini sill Bninltsb tol hilsau IisIu3iflsq sd l1S3 s3nebiVe

Page 7: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

D's) atrzsnsq Ihotaid nommo no niw3dI cJ "aniwa noI" iol anobsuslqxs sldiaustq ol niinioq bus

.(enstb IioIonñei wonsobne bus noiisiimmi 10 zsvsw 3n8m81fla isiino1t nibliijd

dI 13ibd bus woiTh!uoi anoinfli3ath lo snsnoqmi eth lo s3nsbiv8 aaw3aib VI fl0i1382

sf11 gniau bsm,33o svi1 asldshsv sasfil ni asnsb inthoqmi wod alsbiano3 bus asmo3juo amon0300l3sm

.asbul3no3 V noiis .slqfnsxs us as noiaasiqsU issiD

lo z1se wsivsi ,ijo 'to luo wsib ol ssa sw anoass! 1ssiolobot13sm sf13 'to lnioqbncla sf13 mo1

lnsleiano3 gnir3IrIiano3 'to amsldoiq ff0 555U30't II flOi333 .alnioq belslsi tud i3niiaib asism anoi3sa sasth

ls3nolaid nift1da 'to s3nsas'iq sf13 iii sisb saodl niIns bus smi3 'to abthsq no1 tsvo athsa smil

diod sthilh3 VI bus III anoi1s2 .(as3hq 'to aas3o'iq ashsa smil sill ni allida hs1u3iflsq) thei

ni —

aisbom iisrJi 1131w lnst2ianO3ni at3s't 'to atsa nhoai iol thOwsfflsñ 313smono3so13sm insnimoiq

sill no s3nsbivs Liioiaid lebiano3 03 alaliosilt sb aasniaud Issi 'to siuli't sill siasdqms sw isIu3ihsq

smog 01 alaimono3ecn3srn nsiasnis)I-oen 'to siulisl sill bus noiauThb bus noiisvouui IszioIoudosi 'to sasq

.m0flO35 eu ni aniw nol" rIifw aqh oi

Iqqua 'to noils3ftiinsbi sill iuods anoiiqmhlaas ni bs3efts em animo3floda esodi asas thod nI

01 3n5bnsl sill sisi1a asd3soqqs lE3iaasI3-wsn bus nsiasns)I illo8 .monoe s ni ai3oda busmsb bus

[s3iojaid sib dliw abbo Is laaoi noilqmuaas us — bnsmsb ol auonsoxs as snsfb (3n8ups1't-w01 wsiv

bnsmsb s1ssigs 'to violaid a (te1sI Si sI33 a3enu)I sili 'to ioiaid siff .eb3 atens.u)1 sill no euisis3i1

bus al3s11s nin'issI s1sa 'to asimono3H .Iqqua sIa81ga m sagnaib wonsobns bsuboiq isdi aoda

— lnsmslitsa isilnoil bus nibliud 3i3 'to atxelno3 1iç sill nidhiw nsm — anoiiaieqxe 'to ae3usgievno3

-ibsq" need sad Hs3iioiaid lqqus sissxp IineisThb luq .luslioqmi I1aiasqas need svsd ol mesa

".tnsbnsqsb

islu3iflsq 'to a3351'ts tnsiaiaisq sill no bus asBasib nsupei1-wol no au3cft ol sniged sno esnO

'to iedmun siril sill iaii1 .woIlol Srnai3iiil3 ls3iolobodiem ieibo asmiei Isnoiiuliiani tu aflida baa alneve

sib bno3s2 .iaegua slab shea emil launns usd3 'isllsma sf1 sm slab ashsa emil ni anoiiavisado

'to stun noI dhiw eun3lnla" imonoe bsxft 1beaoqqua a 'to alstefnaiaq sill niismilae 'to noilsqu33o

Page 8: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

blsz-oa edi lo noia,ev Isiens siom s as lo 1duodi ed ns aidT .eulsv eldsnoilasup lo at sisb asiie-ernb

thiw sBnsd3 noiisi3eqxe 'aines as Hew as "alsinemsbntft" a'rnonoe eth :@VQI 8s31JJ) "eupiJii3 as3uJ"

-82013 liolqxe 113111W eaoill —

aisbom 3iInono38cnm niias1 03 aedasolqqs eviisrnei!s biidT .ezrneileqxs

eis aeibuia 1511013382-22013 10 i8115q .51d5ii2$b ed sm — noitshsv aehea-emii as Hew as uoiishsv 150013382

noI lo vlo3aid 811303 e3naveleI lo aile33slsrb Inoi38a io Isiisqa sislosi 03 ansem £ as diod lulsau

no1 isvo (3ns3ano3 Is1w31n38 nimiaas fljoifjjw anoiisvieacio lo aiedmun nisg 03 ansem £ as bus

.smii lo sboheq

23JUAI2AV DIMOPIOD3OSIDAM O $lOlVAIfla JADIJDYD I1T .11

.atneflsq 1sai133 ni 2snsd3 Is*io3aid id owi beis3ibui bsd d3issasI iaom os aiss' net lo sA

edt sioled nsdi isW bhoW bno3e2 edt lefts slitslov aael ibum ezew tnemo1qme bus iuqtuo taiiI

erli ni TMeldixsfl" ass! eew ss3hq bus sesw Isnimon bnoae2 .boiisq iswieini silt ni io isW bhoW

aasl eisw 811103811 bst! noiisftni siiq bus esw Isili eanea silt m aboheq lsihse ni usd1 boiisq iswiaoq

hoqqus 03 beib asw e3nebive airiT .alevs! 3nemo1qme bus iuqtuo ni bneil moft anoitsiveb 0.1 evitianea

a1smmu2 bus noJsU 852 e!qmsxe us ioI) 3lloq iol anoilsbnsmmo3sl neve bus anoiaul3no3 153138108111

eaerlt beilibom tsdwemos sari asilea-emil 1sthoiair1 lo ezutan edt 03 noirnells IIftsla3 neIll 83012 .(ô8Q1

.alasl bei1ia

1nsnroIqm3 bus IuqluO lo 3UbsIoV Jwib'D

:aboiisq edt aaozs 3881812003 SIS isdI ashea siiupsi abohsq Isthoiaid neewied auothsqmoD

silt ni ae3neleThb eIsiaim sm 8110 saiwledlO .sisb lo abniA emsa eu man sw etnsa edt iii bst3Irflano3

ion 81S siab inetaiano3 II .ioivsdsd 3imono3e iii emit zevo asgnsda iol bei3Inmno3 stew ashea silt sw .niblo33s 20012013003 a'eno iaiijbs bus asbuslaisnooni edt lo muooos sai lawn eno eldslisvs

iuqtilo bisbusia isdi beflsaas (d8Q1 ,s8Qt) zsmo$1 snbahdD liinu tnioq silt bezongi IesI aiaimonoo

asw iii beioiniznoo need bed aehWneo d3iinewi has bus dineelenin sisi edt ,oI ashes lnsmoIqme bus

Page 9: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

3ie0 sdi isib mobaiw Inoiinevno3 efli biqs33s imo$I .atnsmsvom lE3i133 Nb tsie £xs" lEffi

evis!si sdl" ssiwisfho Isdi beugis iud sbo lswiaoq nsdi siv siom rbum need bsd noiaeqeCI

no anoiiSzJi3ufl imonoe 'to ihsve edi. .

.sisb edi lo inemft £ Sj monoe iswisoq edi to noiisilidsi

.(E& .q d8QI) "Iupe Iñuoi eis noisseqeU iseiD eib 1o sebia diod

bivsU .(E ieiqsdD ,QQI iiwonisS sea weivsi £ ioI) alluasi z'iemoSl benellsd3 evsd aiediO

ni bneii bnuois anoi1suiu1t I3xl33 iedisdw !to noiiaeup elqmia edi oT" :beblJI3no3 (QQ1 ,8QI) iieW

ol eisupebs nsdi siom eis slab edt II isW bhoW snia islisina emoed evad inemo1qmenij bns CIMO

bst3lrnano3 (Q81) nobioD tiedo$L bns eAlsH nadisM .RÔC .q à8Qt) "as :iewana evitinfleb £ isvilsb

.q) "1€ iefta nail Q1 sioled iiliisIov ie1sei fIsilnaladua" elsibni taill ¶40 Issi ioI aehea Is3nolatd

1ne ieq inevea luods i ashea edt lo o1 sill ni bneii moil noilsiveb to noilaiveb bisbnaia silT (18

¶40 Issi iswsiq nwo aiemo$l beebnI .aboheq iswlaoq ni naift 8Q1-Qè81 io 8OQ1-Q8t isvo ieissi

bneii mcrñ noiisiveb to noiiaivsb bisbnsia £ dhiw asiisa lswiaoq sill asili elilstov siom ai (Q8QI) ashea

iaweiq edt ansem skill wsiv s'ismo$1 nI 28Q1-V4Q1 nadi 8Q1-Qb81 ievo issi xrie isq (flifh ai tadi

01 83n8ieThb silt ebuj idim siedlO .( a) stab lswxaoq edt nail "elitslov eiom bdi1a lno" si ashes

luqluo 10 noiiailidsia timrioqmi us ets3ibni

iswlaoq ot eIdsisqmo3 Luit ed 1153 aise isweiq ioI ashes ¶40 io xnemoLqme on Ietsnutio1nU

Is3holSiH .sOQ1 edt sidled bstaslIo3 ton 1qrnia siew monoe silt lo aioles nsm no stab IsunnA .aehea

(OQQ1) d3iu biaibiSl bus ieflsD nsw lo abiow silt nI .anoiiqmuaas sidaisdeb no thud sd taum seismitse

ist lnsi3ns us ni bel3ello3 asnod mail lsmins l3nuixe-BnoI smos lo sqsda silt niriemni" sill ai aaeoiq silt

dual eom luq ldim enO .noos emil ns wansano a ibaei Iliw ew tail 1eii1nu aissqqs ii .(1Q .q) "tiq

iemo$I .svianedsiqmo3 asel Ii 4sldslsqmo3 ll3süb bus lnsiaiano3 eiom sis tail stab nli alluasi ni

xebw sei3h1 thwb noix3ubo-Iq lshiaubni no ashes iswsiq Ised silt to ,oivsded sill aszsqmo (d8Ql)

ed2 .noii3uboiq !shiaubni no ashes lswxsoq islimia iev lo &quoo a ox (V*Q1) lwpuo nhutttunsm lo

t1Q1-81 ievo ielsei inee ieq neeflhith 01 net ed ol bns,t moil noilsiveb lo noilaiveb biabnsia sit zbnfl

.aehs *10 Issi asnons d bsts3ibni tail nail isilarna lud iih1alov th eaaei38b iseb £ - 8-V4Q1 nail

V

Page 10: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

suai n 2ais1 noii3ubrnq Isniaubni bn ¶40 lei no she mon ailuasi nswisd e3nslsThb silT

iii iv ioisa iift bsv,s&io (RQI) aienu)1 nomi2 .siinwisiil sdi ni bsiofli aael o ernm rrnsd sd itdi

3dim tnsmolqms bns iucpuo stsi lo ioivdsd I3i133 silT sniaud o,t iiviii2ne usd1

on s-is siedi" Ii neve oi ineisThb lo s3nznoqmi sviislsi sill ui aflida 10 iluasi £ as srnii isvo ensila

ui snil3eb £ slqmsxs iol. .&sb aasniwd ol assnevianoqasi ui ioisa ilass nidhiw aftida isluasa be*ism

asIaa assnisuici ol tuqiuo liuiIuiip lo aasnsvianoqasi lo as1 £ dhiw benidmoa sni1luiahs lo idiew edt

sbsm 1! .(Ql .a) "asbuiilqms sba aasniaucl lo gninsbiw £ Isups nisd anoiiibnoa isdio nasm bluow

bail an-wfl iuuttiA bus llezfaiiM sIasW slil daissas, ussiufi IsnoitsM iol siiflluahgs no auaol ol sanea

bus bnsqxs ion asob aqcna niwoi lo iiaubni aiasd edf :ioiasa IsaiIaas Isupirni £ ecf ol nimis1 bnuol

.q RQI 1leiltiM) "sansnft bus noiithoqanslt gnibsii nwiaslunsrn n!nim ibiw noainu ni iasiinoa

oi noiisbi on io biiL svsd s& lud ainsmsvom Isaiba oisbnu" inemo!qms bus tuqiuo mi&! .(à

OQt moi .bohsq iswisini sill ui woivdo flsiasqas saw silT (8 V .qq 1Q! sirw8) "ssla(3 sasnisud

sissigA .asaiviss bus ebsut nibubni ioiaea lsiuiluahp-non uevs ui Ilel insmolqrns Ql ol

oats saw ii iua .ins3 usq E d vuü 3nsmoIqms nnsl elidwnssM .insa ieq 14 d tiel inemo1qme

lsuui1uan" MQI dijoiib sOV8f sub moul isdi bnuol sIahq niwb3 .isW bhoW taiFi eli sioled sini

uojsm isilto iol ssodh 01 sansldrnsssi siflhl *nhssd anoiisuiauft mush-flouts iuo beani asnsflsq floibiJboiq

',Inisiisa aquou lsiuuluxu-non bus tsiWIiiahs silt neewisd sqidanoilsleu Issusa edT .aquoi aoiiauboiq

sa 01 ion si silT .(Q .q 1Ql) "noiislsnoa siqinia na 10 miol sill ui asvlsamsdi saeiqxs ion bib

.tuqluo uri1 lo sariq eviislsi sib ui nustisq lsaitaa sill no sbnsqsb tsdt ;lsaitaas sis tzon% lsiuhhian.s

euuilun lo iuo ssaiuossu lo fliuls anomione us was iWnea dlsiinswi silt swoda I stdsT sA

eli 10 IsoM .sOVQI sib iuuw tldt ion bib iuqtuo io 3nernoIqme ui nhuias1unsm lo siads silt slidw

s-mm uud nhuiaE1unsm usd1 IsaiIaa assi eta 3nemoIqme bna tuqJuo asaivis .seaiviss oh mew eanslad

lo tilailaa silt saseiaeb 01 bebnet evad bhods flida Iauoiaoa sill Meaji a .suuuIuah*s usd1 lsaiIaa

bus iemo$1 sib ibo8 .euWhuihs nibuIath 'IWO Issi lo iilsaiIaa sub oawzath md '1140 lsiuuIuahsnon

£ ejsaibni ibod Isib bbo anuses ml .,suisf sib siussem oh 1ioqiuq ¶40 Issi tol ashes nobioD bus eilsfl

8

Page 11: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

.ismo$I id b8nim&xe aehs2 noiiubrnq ni1u13s1unsm tnsiaiaflo3 edi nsdi ii1iiIov fli 8fluI38b isiI gnhul3cIunsm bn ¶40 Lsi rhod iol siis Ihoi2id eIdsil8l bd sno iidi isvewod 1s2oqqu

Is3x13 nhsqmo3 nI Voivd5d I3il33 ru asnd3 eiibth oi enthqolqqE ed b!ijow (131(1W .iuqiuo

1ubivibni is Aoot bnsLsviupe ,o bexft aidisw I1oi3e blod sno bluoris aboiieq 3(101 ievo "ii1iisIov"

sboheq inei8Thb os iiliisIov !31!33 to enothiqmoo iot insnoqml 1I bsqss €1 sussi aidT Vsioiss

smat ndot .sIqmxe wI sisiZ sf11 iisswisfl ,sW sf11 lsftll bnE siolsd ywins3 dinssisnin sf11 nidiiw

£" asis3tbni (OÔQI nimlls0 ni bsdh3ssb) ashss ¶40 Ins, bsdailduqnu 2'nimlli0 flsdoSL isib bnuól (EQQI)

mot1 (OIV .q) "anoiisui3ufl 3imonoe io 3i18vs2 s13-asniwd lo ssisb sf11 iii 8SSSl3fli thiinsisthjs

noii3uboq Iililisubni no sshs insiisno3 isdi wodE (tQQ1) ssnsH bn thirnoID .QOQI-è81 01 Q814C81

insisianoani issssn ion sis silussi owl sssdT .boiisq mullsdisoq 3(11 m sliislov sssl gthdins Ii ss thnssisthn 8(11 18V0 siu1!iians oi evitsisi 3nnW3EIiJIIsm lo Hiwoig biqsi sf11 nsvi :isdio dose diiw

sssl erns3sd iuqiuo gnimi3sIunsm ss nsve sliislov siom smszsd D40 Isi isdi sldiasoq sliup Si ii 1Wn83

.sliisiov

03 rlguoii bns rf3uo11 03 issq moil noiiswb — as13 sasaisud lo 3nimii erli ni se3nsda 1stho3siH

work (QQ!) d3wdsbu$1 nnslD bns blodsiQ ai3ns1 .ssibuis ins3el 10 i3eldua 5(13 need osis svsd — iseq

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noaiisqmo3 srIi isdi beion lud noi3sviesdo smsa sib sbsm (ô8Q1) iiwoms loi3iV bns siooM lCsffiosO

ss sw sniss sib ni 0550(1330(1 518W boiisq iswsiq sib ml aelsb ri3uoii4ssq $13HM sib saussd 3iii ssw

sib isili e3nebivs inssslq (QQl) ismo$I snijsi,fiD bns (4QQ!) noslsW 'AisM .ssisb lswiaoq bns iswieini

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iswsIq sill zliod iii 1133n81 smsa sf11 tuods lo Enoiansqxe bns anoitsljno3 work sisb insisianoD .ioivsdsd

.sbonsq iswisoq bns

iiisvs2 s133 sasniwd isdi sf1 oi amsss ssibjns woiisv sssdt moiu wrib 03 noisubiioo sib lIisvO

220135 be3nsd3 briczftin3i2 ion asd sI lo nsupei1 bns noilsiub sib slidw emil isvo nsIlsl ssd

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Page 12: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

no bnscpb &nsiisv 8Iai3 iii niL3eb sib lo insixs edT .boneq vrie3ni sib nibubxs lhotid

no 211301 oi iszlisdw bna smii vo Idjn&jmoo iuqTho siuasm o wod uod ibod anoiiqmu2as

.monos slodw sib io *nhui3s'lIJnsm

hq bna aaW Ianimo1 ni thismsvoM IsibD

"5U3 2qiilur1" £ lo 2nnsi iii bsdhasb nefto 2i 2$3 io esw buiimon 10 loiv2dsd Iibiç edT

io iuqluo (inee io) 1n8nu3 sib bn6 (253ha) sw lo egnsd3 lo elsi sib neewied noiisle, bsismit2s ns

neflo 2i noijslei edT .isq 3nsei sib iii (e3i1aj sssw lo egnsd3 lo sis, sib nevi ,LsvI insmo1qme

besI ff0 irIeI3fflso3 £ bns nemo!qms io iuqtuo no lnei3Ifleo3 beismiiae ns nivi ,issnil sd ol bsmus

io ¶40 Issi bisbnsia sib niau aboheq lswi2oq bns iswelq beisqmo3 2siblfl2 lo iedmun A .noiislIni

'aee$l risdiA niblJ13ni 2$3iiq obns sssw iol siisa wonsv bns ismo$1 d bsi3iih SSi182 tnsrnoIqme

sIs2sIodw bns 2loisftsb ¶40 t1Qt-OQ8! ievo Bnhu1s1unsm iii agniinse huod szzevs iol sshe (1Q1)

ni noitsflni beast no an8i3ffleo3 ies! bns iuqtzio no arnet3ffieo3 sllsrna bswol sibin2 ThoM .aehs2 s3nq

,nssD) "1ilidixsf1" Is3i133 ni srnii isvo easeeb £ need bsd sistft isib nibul3no3 boheq iswl2oq sib

£ evsd 23fl82 nirriss 25551 sib isib nwoda ssd (QQ!) asILA nevei2 ,'bns3e1 sioM .(08Q1 ad3s2 VQI

nellA asid isdi lo in1Jo3s nhLsT .gniinse hijod ssievs sini lo swassm £ SB asid ls3ii33oTq iioiis

lo esnoqsei sib ni ensd3 eldsms3sib on" md noiizftni bssl no insi3ffiso3 edi ni ssaeni its bnuol

ssw no smsb insiSiano3 gniw insimsq islimis £ bnuol (QQl) seusH M.qs iuqluo sib ot sssw Isnirnon

bsiuarism ss asnq iii nisflsq islimis £ bevissdo (OQQI) nobioD tisdo$1 .sniinse huod nsdt teibsi esist

II isW bhoW-msoq bits I tsW bhoW-siq neewied egnsd3 elos silT" toisfteb ¶40 betnnisno3-lwen £ d .noitsftni beggsl no insi3fflso3 sib si isib (OU I ci) "insz3ftlsO3 £iflsrn sib ni ssstni its ssw

sods)! 13insq bits 2u3Bfl bivsU .uirzet ,edto iii ioivsdsd eeiiq bedhssb svsd seibois emo

33iIq sib ni bnefl moft noitsiveb bits tuqiiio ni bnsim moft noitsiveb neewied nobsie, silt ewssem (QQl)

ls3il33te3nuo3 bits QEQI-OQl bits IQI-Q81 tevo Is3ibotq si level ezitq edt isdi bnfl sdT .Ievsl

sib emsrnitss osis bits irieitsq etuss silt evisado (I QQI) nsinsdO ssJ bits slooD asmoilT .8QI-OQI tevo

01

Page 13: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

18V0 SViii2Oq 21 ,S33E1 sifT .3IJq3IJO Iii thwo lo Sin Silt brn noii1tm snq 10 sin Sib nSSWiSCI flOiiSi8TIO3

1VQ1-QQ1 isvo sviisn Q1-OOQI bni OOQI-0V8!

iaiIi) 283ibni S3hq odwbbnEi2 niw asibW2 ssd3 10 23111251 !s1sns silt 2s3ubOlqsl II skisT

insiaiano3 iaom sib bns (xsbni "2msti hATM J8 di 03 bsInil Q1 no2,ssq bns nsnW d blrneno3

ismo$1) zsbiil noi33ubo1I alsi,sisM bisoB evzssS1 lsxsb&1 sib bas xsbni 8j3i1q sill asiisa iuqiuo

istift nossi1-i3iiboH sill niau bsnftsb ots abasiT .OQQl-QIQ1 bus MQI-Qô81 8IBfII03 01 (d8Ql

hseb on i sisili sau&ed bohsq lswislni sill limo sW .(OQQI 051q bus bns1b)L niwoI1o1)

saiiq isib bsiasu2 svstl asiblfl2 Insvs .istbo sib lo ibod dhiw ii sisqmo 01 281152 luqiIJo lnslaiano3

tVQ1 nibut3xs 2311J281 insesq 0215 SW 02 2OVQI hss Sib lo L30tl2 lio sib m hiwwnu sv sw loivsdsd

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iuqiuo bus sanq :usinsilO bits s1ooD bits soils)! bus smbsfl cJ bnuol irisllsq sib wor1 () .1dsisbisno3

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sis iuqiuo ni snsd bus noiisftni iii sgnsth :nsinsdO bits s1ooD d brniol nlsiisq sib swofl2 (E)

noiisIerIo3 lsWl2Oq edT .boiisq isisI sib iii betslei 1evttssn bonsq hise sib iii bslsIsl 1sviti2oq

silt moil bsbul3xs si 1'Q! Ii sviii2oq ssmo3sd bus Issw isv si ibwoi iuqluo bus noiisfmni nsswisd

.bebuI3xs si $VQI nsdw b8335115 ibum sis ailussi isdio sib lo snol4 .slqmsa

ci bshi3no3Sl sd nsz asibwz sasib d nwsib anoiwbno3 v1ol3ibflino3 1guimssa sib lo smog

ibim bus a1hioiaoo1A aA .noiislsno3 3uquo-nohtT moil noilslsiio3 luqiuo-e3hq nidiuniiaib

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11

Page 14: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

noiiszflbsq2 .srwinwob 1s3i!33 £ 03 no%1i?$ b sanoqest sift iii sassisb sldstsbiano3 s asilqmi snsd3

iuqiuo sili iii sgnsrla sib 03 noiisflni iii sgnsd3 sib lo oust sib isdi niwoda inioq aidi asistianomsb (1)

daum si oils, edT (.ô8Q1 tiwosns bits stooM moil nsgsi eta aelsU) .asnuinwob $I3M th noilsiveb

.4.VQI *nibubxs nsvs bohsq teisi sib ni islisma

bits noiisflni nsswlsd noilsi3oaas sill lo n1ssw bevisado sib leiqielni nsinsdO bus sIooD

sib bits noiisflni lo sis, sill iii sik sill nsswlsd nobslsno3 £10 s3nsads siil Iqmi 01 sliwot luqluO

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Page 15: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 16: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 17: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 18: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 19: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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VI

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Page 22: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 23: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 24: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 25: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 26: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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bns nciJsU .ssziiq iis d be3ubolq ss3nsIsd Issi ui s*s5i3n1 vs1oqmei £ lo its 1snoisnsqxs

sI33 assniand sAsm ns nsvs l3eTte sill sslui nii1sa-esw burn -snq sinos iot isull work (ÔSQI) sismznu2

asass,ni iilidixsft snq ieissi saussd ii1idixsfl siiq 10 sssb sift 10 flOul3fllñ ü%nt ns iiliislov

.saso,q insiniaijjbs sill nhub noilsilni bel3sqxs lo sin sill

sill Ill a5nsl3 io nibnsqs lnsmirxsvo ni asnsrl3 si1 aaou1a issi sissigs aisbom nsissneX uI

sA .alebom lszñzssl3 wen d bsi3ibelq saoth moul lnsusThb siiup atzeYts svsd lnsrnisvni 01 inuisu bsi3sqxs

insmissvni bus noiiqmuano3 iii sinsmsvom 1s3il3)ouq 111w bslsi3Osas sil ns us ai3ozls 2It!

sbbom nsiasns)1 sLsbom 1&igasb wsn sliIni osLA .s3nslsd sbsii sill in ainsrnsvom Is3iI33i5lnuo3 bus

Isi133usirwOo sd sm sssw Ise$L .insmolqms ol irwisu Issu sill ioI noiis3ifqmi iS25835fl on svd

Q .q QQI on8) assw sususv ssaiiq lo iibiiu sviislsu sill no nibnsqsb lsi13ouq iO 153i13'(35

13511115 ssi,q ssooib 01 seul suew srrnlI If nsvs lsilaouq ed bluoo aesw lssM .(V1 .q OQQI wblnsM

sisw laoa Isnigism isvo aqu-*ism e3nq gniximixsm-ifloiq as gnol as asisi sgsw Isnimon L3iia 01

bsviisb sd ns3 squ-*lsm ls3ib3usirnJoD .(€QQ! nidoT QQI asnisX 8QI qolnuU) 1&i133isinuo3

alia ssa aslqmsxs ioI) ais*ism l3uboiq 1o eiul3Inia sill luods anoilqmuazs lnsisThb lo isdmun £ moft

(1 QQ! biolbooW bus gusdmelo$l Q8QI

uiW bhoW bnois 9d1 ,iols8 b) s,niaua bna IsboW nBiantsX

Isdi asldsiisv Issi ui asnsiisq lszi133 sill dtiw lnsiaiano3 sis sisbom nsissns)I lo snoiisibsiq sdT

sdt 1lnsnoqmi siom sqnths .boiisq iswlsoq sill as 11mw as thoiisq iswisini bus iswsiq sill ui zssqqs

Page 28: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

1o sozb eli! svi3riM .zineve e1dviedo 1o amisi iii aeb aasniwd 3aom Io aeaiis 3fti3eqa 03 tnioq

is3snom eldiwslq o suoIis3 no1 £ ineasiq (QQI) a!e1 aibne$L bn (Q1) tmwd bn nsrnb&L

sib d benlIsb aa inuinwob bn znulqu isvs iaomL ot inuo33 03 a±oda ("SI") nibnsqa bn ("MJ")

iisiO iswie1ni sib o sa& sib ,ót beibu3a lljitei& need ',lno ad 1adl asrbii 1o inemaansdrns ns —

.(Q8QI nimsT elqmsxe ioI) noiaasiqsU

elilnu iosxb nsiasns)( iol unsldoiq Isbeqa on saoq 14Q!-QQ1 1O ZJfl5V5 3ffl0fl03501381fl edT

astaIs isdi svi33sqasq nnot-bs3IJbe £ moL" :beion asd (QVQ!) onfl tisdo$1 aA .aeiioerb IsiaasIa wen

snil iii hew amsea &Q! 01 OEQI moft nOil3Slino3 sib ae3nsthu3aib u3snom iohq 03 anoiisul3uft aasniwd

iliiw Isvi1sii3nsup abIo33s bohsq aitIi isvo eaqsIIo3 s(thisnom bsinebe3eqnu edT .as3neheqzs isdio diiw

iuqliJo to tlisq sill" 3r13 aeus (F.QQ!) ismo$I snitaiiiD .(8 .q) 3ivii3s 3UflOflO3S iii snibeb 313251b sill

hew iev ,noi3qs3sq nommo 03 (IIino3 ai aOQ1 sift ni aslsi2 belinU sib ni 3nsmoIqms bns

.Isbom nsiasns)I bisbnsia £ lo amisi ni (I .q) "booiaisbrni

is bsmis ¶3itoq visisnom 3itasmob 3di3 lo saus3sd QQl-b!m iii noiaas3el oini bsqqila as3sl belinU edT 13032 sill nsdw lasinse iii bensia noiaasiqeU iseiD edT .ts*ism 13032 .2.U eu no noilslu3eqa nimme3a qoie 03 siolsisib bnB auovisn smo3sd 01 arznft bns aiemuano3 beaus3 asl8iZ belinU silt ni dasi lelism

tqswa a3insq gnilnsd nsñw benea,ow noiaasiqsU nS3ilemA edT .aboo eldinub sldiaieveni niijd sib ilsniI .ensvietni 03 behisl evzeas$L Irxsbs silt bns alnsd Isiui bebnsixsisvo bns bsfliaievibnu

Iqqua snom sib sass,3ni 03 eaoib noiis,iainimbs llsvsaoo$I sib nsrlw bebne noiaasqsU nszhsmA .(t .q) £E1 isfls !auobnems,i

sissis IsnoiiibEIi £ mib monos 2.U sili no bells sib basxs bsd" Iqqua snom sill ni sasel3ni silT

03 sanoqasi ni beismmu!q asisi iasisini Issi. .

.i3ibeiq 01 eno bssl bluow lebom bnsmsb e1ss-1qqua

noii3Iniano3 as sbua nibneqa sviiiansa-las,sini lo (isVO3ei £ d Ii3iup his1 bewolLol.. .awofln! bIos edi

issiD sib 10 noilqh3asb a'ierno$I slidW .( ti) Nabo sidnub lo aeaaibiuq iemuano boa nibnsqa

sib bewohtol Isib (allida "sbia-Iqqua") anoilqinaib bsviI-no1 03 izIisw shill oo ibafla sm noiaasiqsU

bns airwinwob sib lath tnib sd tu bnuoi unit no i ed Ql-QQt lo al3oda' bnamsbe3asis sisvsa

nsiasneX sib d bel3ibslq aeldsnsv is3snom ni ainsmevoin eib ibiw beisboaas ss I*Q1-QQt lo afnuiqu

.Isboin

Page 29: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

W nobqmuas eth diiw teriup bluow nsol inebin 10 eflom £ flO 2inemsq sm odw eno 014

i3ubolq emo isift iseb aasl on i ii .anrist lsnifnon iii tnemsq xii 13sttno3 lsioqmensini smog isdt

bnoe2 edt eioIed beion asw &riutnwob ls3ib3 iii neve smh s is 2dinom ioi bexft bled eis eaiiq

nojhsD elqmsxe io1) boiieq lswi2oq edi ni belnsmu3ob lqrns need asd bns (?.1 anseM) ,sW bhoW

yisnoiisltni us iii llsi3eqe zrIs3sib ol tebisd si selsi esw isnimon io lnemiwjbs-isbnU .(8Q1

eluloads lo eeneads edi dtiw iedteoi ssw lsei iii bneii biswqu edt boiisq lswlaoq edt iii .inemnoiivns

io1 asisi egsw Isnimon Isdi anssm arnuinwob ui neve bnsrneb eisgeis Isnimon bus asiiq ni 58558135b

ietho oi evilsIel 10 boda ebiw-monoe us 01 sisi esw £ nh3w1bA .1gev ieve beasei3n: sis adol isom

siith insJaiano3 nii3Irxiznoa lo uneldoiq oals eis eIedT .easei3ni iellsma ,o isisI sb isflsm £ si aesw

sisb aehea-emij eviansdeiqmo3 beioelloa znes on boiieq iswiaoq edt bo iaom ievO .aesw eiiiasem 01

d bel3euls 81S saedT .aniunse hiod esievs no aehea need svsd asixolq Ised edT .aeisi esw no

£ nidtiw anrufl a1ol3ea esw-did bus -wol nouns insrnolqme bo noiliaoqmo3 edt ni atrieflsq lS3il33

asnea aninise huod esievA .(Q21 aiiaiis1 iodsJ bo useii8 2.U) mu £ nidjiw aueiow bns uo1aea

.bexft bfsd euew ae1u esw lsnimnon ils ii neve el33 aaeniwd £ 1$VO ldsuebiano3 isv bluo3

.aboneq usthse moiI sisb ui evueado 01 181288 ed idim ineiniau4bs eriq bus esw bo ewisn edT

aeiuea VQl auaneD edt 10 usenj8 .2.IJ) aOQl elsi sub ievo elilil uev eaou aelsi ssw Isnimon esuevA

iaoM .(8 .q 1ôQl aee$I .q OôQl noJ eea) aOQ8l etsi edt duoudi aOV8l edt mon bus (O8U

enom edt ui aenikeb siuloads wsa aniutnwob lsil33 Isom isW bhoW bno3e2 emit sioled bnsfloqmi

bo anoiassuqsb edt mu swn Inisne3 asw aidT .aesw mu ensd3 emit Ieviis1eu dtiw aeiuq bus lqqua

es3nq uemuano bus ss3i1q elsaslodw lqqua venom edt aurwinwob seiuli ils uI .QQI bus ,VOQI E8I

'.(aehee a'snons 01 nibuos) inemoIqme bus ¶40 lseu noii3ubouq lshiaubni miuiw nols Ileb

smut d bisq sets, esw ui seBnsmb bo sb1oe1 bnided ftel snoisseuqeb eeedi bo dase letsnimoq

lns3ItinBis ultiw beisi3Osss asw libih ssw isdi noiton edt dtiw zneisiano3 etiup eus ubidw adoj nevi ,ob

edT .ae3hq nilts1 bus busmab etseis B1111 bo 8351 edt ui arrwinwob el33 sseniaud niwb zfiosl

Page 30: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

sisia sdt 4Q81 nI .Q81 snut iii tIuon £ bns £Q81 visunsL ui issq B as nolassiqeb €Q8! sdi asisb $I8J4

bail sdt mthsdw 03 as ainsmdaildstas besv,ua snisM bas iuaiisnnoD oidO iioY wsM 10 aimsiud 10dB!

suiT .4.Q81 rnmmua ufuouii Q8I hss moil boiisq £ ni 10 £Q81 iss isbnsIa sill isvo as3ai ssw tu ni rtuo1i bns OQ1 sM ui ssq $I38M sill nhsvo3 aOOQl sib uiuoiuft asvwa all bsuniino3 ussmd ohiO

&u2 bus issD (QQl OQQ1) mo,ithnuZ mailliW d bedul3asb sis asvuja siia sasulT .80Q1 snut

o smoa iol asizi szw ui atu3 bsnoqs ainsmilaiklatas nsm svua isvs uI .(QQ!) asnsH bns (OQQI)

agnixriss Iuod o as3sr ssw saisvs no asiisa-smii sldslisvs ihiw insSaiano3 si suiT .anoilsqu33o ils

sib bsxioqsi ajnsmuiaildsias isom sviua scio flid us ui 3u8 .aias smsa sib isvo asassl3ób worla it3itlw

.a8E3ns31sq eisI d insmo1qms 1113 bail srli uiuoili nsve noi3squ33o ns iol asiai ssw 3113 ion bail

ni 301 B 1151 insmolqms Isib wouls slab ietho iud insmoIqms iuods Las ion bib svius 1Q8 I ohiO sdT

vuia 4Q8I 3uai3snnoD sill si noiiqs3xs silT (.[OQQ! moilabnu] asia 3IIIqa1os bus sio3sa sinsa sill

8mm 1iuIi1a svius Isdi ui .QQ8! 3auuA dijoiu1i) wiiflnwob sill isfis boiisq iasnoI sib asbubni ibidw

erli aOE(?I hss sill ui .(V1 .q OQQ! ub3u bus isnaD) 23113 saw bsnoqsl alnsmulaildaias sib lo IIsd naib

sisi ssw no noiismioluü (sldsiaqmo3 1l3siib ion iud) islimia bs3sHoo a3i3ai1si iodaJ lo ujasiu8 .2.IJ

sill sfta iss s narli siom lilnu bexft asisi ssw blsd ainsmilaildaThs nsm IBib woda slab sasdT .asnsd3

44Q! isiaid) 1nsmoIqms 3113 bail sib isfIs no1 QQI iauuA ni Isaq $IH8 sib moil iriuinwob

.(8QI IIsd3liM

lo sviIstnsasiqsl saw aslqmsa sasib ui amifi suli b ioivsilsd sib isib sius ed 03 sw Off si sisdT

ssw 'arinfi luods noilsunolni isibo diiw insisianoa 1nisfls3 sis atluasi 'asvwa sib lud jsisns ni annfl

silt 11sniho isiasvisH Isnoilaunsinl 1o bu3a (8QI) s'snnsO nsdoSl .sinulnwob sasib ui asnsd3 sisi

.anoiaasiqsb esidi sib lo ubss ui has 3nsmo1qms 3u3 unit silt lath awoda nsqmoD isqss$I I3InrI0D3M

11su3nsvH .asisi esiq no saoib bns ais*iow belibla [to ssw] silt 1no 1u3" nsqmo sib Q8I ui 3i,fl

"ins3 I ioclal nommoa [ioI asaw] 3113 finif I3innoD3M sib nssd noiaasiqsb sib isuis ziss ssiib

lo nrnniBsd sill lilmi msw 3113 Ion bib islssvisH Isnoiisinsinl inwnwob VOQI sib ftA .(E .q ,sumsO)

laift silt I€QI lsdol3O ni 11sniL..ssaw 1113 01 ff01335 on Ioo1 nsqmo sib" QQI usuiA .(t .q) 80Q1

8

Page 31: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

sis1 iedto bus L33IZ 2.U 80Q1 nI .( .q) Nbeiulijani isw in& isq 1 lo atU3 ssw is*iow noit3ubolq

.(!81 .q VQ1 bIogi3d2) nsmoLqm8 ni anoii3ubi qsb sliqa5b au esw moil beths1tsi aisuboiq Ieeia

8vSd ol isqqs urrift iettIO .IQ1 isdoO Iirnu bexfl esw iodsf nommo ai bled lsei ..U 2Qf ieulA

31m8b535 bus anoIis3tlduq ebsit asnissm aieqsqaw8n edt eveiled ew II" .ailoq emsa edt bewollol

Q8Ql neh8'O) "1 EQI lo IlsI edt litnu ton eiew ni,inas1unsm ni aesw venom emit edt lo alsniuoj

esedi Ia dase ni isdt iduob eldsnoasei on ed flB3 siedT .(!à! .qq 8Q! doast osis ess 1V .q

iol nuinuoa3s ainemilaildatas lIs1 at nued bsif asanq iemusnoa bus elsaslodw iefts adinom anoisaslqeb

as bexfl letulosds assw Isnimon iisdt bled iuqiuo bus tnemolqme eiseis lo noibsft tnsflinia £

sie*row lb bisi bus noitauboiq tua edt

si 3! .ni1uias1unsm — otaea eno tani iii assw ot bisei iii si eanebive audi lo ifs isdi eio4

emsa edt bsd evsd ton been ioiaes nhutas1unsm edt ni iibih esw lsnimon istli eton ot insnoqmi

.boileq mwtsoq edt iii as aboneq lswieini bus isweiq edt ni inemolqme bus tlJqiuo stseis no ?Jaelbe

sidled iusnoqmi rnm ibum asw ii bus iotaea lsaibas us si eiuiluiip benoitnem 'bseils evsd ew aA

ot Ibiup betaujbs evsd ot iseqqs assw nnsl sesw niiuias1uusm eiilnU .isW bhoW bnoae2 sib

bevom ais*iow (w1ne3 dinssisnin edt iii iasel is bus (QQl o,sM bus nibloD) aaoils stssis isaas)I VQ1 eIwsU) aeianeupsñ lsaiba bus lsnossea is aioiasa nnsl bus nhi,tas1unsrn edt risewied

.(QQ! usnnen3 bus nibloo) 8Q1

-isVorriut iodst ni snilaeb edt ot betsisi osis si iodsl lo noitutiiadua 1sioiaieini edt ni enilaeb ouT

insmolqmenu lo noiinub edt isdt awoda (IQQI dOQQI sOQQI) osM .srnii ,evo nhwas1unsm nidiiw

-nol Isdi bus noizseiqeU tseiO edt at ionq nods lsvitslsi ssw ,otaea nhuias1unsm edt ui alisqa

dgid edt lo emo2 .aOQ! silt isfis bus nhub nommoa eiom dawn omsaed insrn'oIqmsnu noitrwb

noiiwitadua betasfisi leiI nhuias1unsm ni (noitsiub lieqa tnemolqmenu nods) etsi isvoniul Isahoisid

noiiwiiadua ,odsl lo iiai1asIe edT niiuiasIunsm iii allul Isnoases bus lsailaa niwb eiullujahp otiii

,smisd2 bus doast) iWnea ibeitnewl Iise edt iii beaubsi saw iodsl lo ievounut silt bus siotasa 850135

.(QQ1

Page 32: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

bsnidmo3 bhoW taiiI sib siolsd o3e oi bsvom iodi1 ibidw ibiw sass sviiIsi sdT

I11JiIU3i1 lo iI3i133 sib nurriI Oi svii&Isi I035 BnflU33IUII&1I sib lo 5YJ2 isHcm sib ibiw

ri sbm 1h *nhiuiitiJasm niib snflhIJ3ns ni zesw Inimon Ia insmiwibs biqsi eiom sib bus jioir3uboq

ni inuinwob isib £ wdT .sufl1u3i1s iii bethoads 54 or am*iow nhu33sIunsm be3slqaib iol eiass

IrzIflIu3hs orni ais*iow bedauq svsd bluo3 51o33s5 ssw-13ija iedro bus nhu1s1unsm

.1nemioIqmsnu iisth isibsi rnsmoIqmeiebmi

*tt t& ttt W aqillitN sib 10 aihiasi oj s3nslslsl bsbiovs isl os svsd sw 1ibiii esw lo noiaauaaib mo nI

sib sislsi or iiofls rbum asAsm asibifla saodi lo snon saiised al isdT .isihss oi bsnslsi asibiiia asviua

bus assw asiiq niflea lo msiaa sib lo Isbom niihsbnu us or anoiislsi bei&niias lo ainei3ffleoo

Raum lo anriol bs3ubsl rasd is sis anoiislsi bsismiias sib anoiiqmuaas sldsnoasei ns isbnU .iuqiuo

(lQQt) asusH .biswio1idiiia ion ai atnsi3fllso3 bsismiias lo noirsisiqisii bus amsiaa xslqmo3 siam

or al3oda 10 iili3sIov sib iii aegnsd3 i3eft8 ns ainsialfiso3 evius aqi1lirI beisriiiiae iii asnsib laili awoda

.ioivsdsd ninea e3iiq bus ssw iii asgnsd3 as flew as bnsrnsb sisigs (sEQQ1) aiiimolsD (!QQ1) d1im bus uoiaooIA d beion as bus svods bsaau3ab as isvosioM

sis assw tbiilw or asaasoiq ui31o1 lo s3nsiaizlsq sib ni asnsda (4QQ1) asasH bus QQI) bisuiadO

iuqiuo bus sriq nsswlsd anoiisIsrlo3 sib i3811s ns (noilsilni bus rbwoi isisnom sill) gnibnoqasi

.255253oiq iuqiuo bus saiiq nsswisd auoiisleii03 lo noiisisiqislui sib 135115 siolsisib bus ensd3

lsnimon neswied anodslsnoo ,oI inuo35s ns iibiii 83iiq bus egsw usd1 isibo aioi3sl Il&nlI

lzbnom 10 bwa usd1 ni (Q8Ql) bisdduH bus ahimol) .1nsmolqms io ruqruo Isi bus susib s3hq

ie*ism lo 1351 sib 1351181 liisaaszsn ion asob 8V1U3 eqillid 541 isibsugis QOQ!4Q81 bohsq sdl ioI sisb

sigsigs bss3an1 .1ibiii ssw bus sanq 10 eeipb sib eiuassm 10 aishsm r3ubrnq io rodsi ni nhseb

gnlisrsqo 513042 bnsmsb-eissrs lo 13sIIs iBfloi13simno3 sdi iaeftsi sm snoiisIsno3 saiiq-iuqiuo

sib neewied insmsvom-o3 sib lo ibum isib bull (Q8QI) bisdduH bus aiximolsD .uoiisfleb idsb iIuorib

s3nq as sisnigiro isib a8nsd3 21351151 sb3 aaeuiaud 543 revo iuqiuo bus xsbui e3irq elsaslodw

o

Page 33: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

duoiib io asgw Isnimon bii, Ot sub isd3is 233511$ !e, sviul bIuo3 2noi1vonth d3uZ .2noiivonth

noiiflsb idsb 3ibiBi1 ssw lo atdisw svi11si silT .(noitftsb ideb) adnoa bü3nsnft bsnimistebeiq

usqo nE ansms nh 3tunsm lii &IoitIsno3 tuqiuo bns s3hq sw ninisLqxs ni 2xo33t1 lsfbo bn2

.il3sas1 sliflhJi 101 $u21

aIsbotdI ngiiasns)I w*1 bwi ioiaiH

znoD us&

niasnsX weM d bslsllo iibii s3ilq bnE egsw 1nimon 10 noilsnslqxs !Iisns iaom silT

03 253i1q lwlba ot svitns3ni nnfl £ isdi woik 2Isbom 3203 unsM ".23203 unsm" lo noiion sib i 2lsbom

sviiiieqmo3 b3s11sq nsib as1 i ls*ism i3ubolq 23111 llsm2 sd ns bnsmsb s1ssis Isnimon ni affid2

insmijis 12o3-IJnekn sib iuo inioq (QQI) ismo$1 bivsU bns (OQQI) nobiot) nedo$1 2A .(8Q! winsM)

l3ubolq ai 3112515 s1 silT .anoinu Ioqonom 10 amifl d is sis sib iilisilw sssw ot ssilqqs oals

15115(112 silt 53usd bus 1203 Isnigism ni 825si3sb £ moil Bnhliussi tftoiq iii $285i3n1 sib 151151112 sill bnsmsb

£ niwo1Is 02 3iiasIs s! oats ai todsl 101 bnsmsb bsvheb a'rrnfl sdT .assw 1113 01 $vitn$3n a'nnft sib

lo 1i1idsdotq silt ni szssizeb llsma s) insmolqms ui 525513fli Ilsma ¶I5Vi3B151 £ 215110W 85Vi 1113 55W

('fib his! Bnisd

Si Ilsati lnsmiaujbs 1o 1203 "unsm" llsma £ 11sma al assw 10 25311q niiwjbs lo lftsnsd sib II

.sd idim aiao unsm sasdi Isiiw 15V5W0hl issb ion sit! .bsxfl msdt blot! ol 151352 sib 821183 03 d1Jons

.21203 eviniainimbs bns anoi33sansti lo anncft auoitsv belovni svsd nisbom sasdi lo atnsnoqoiq isI oZ

11s3i,odqs1sm sioM .atait s3iiq wsn taoq 03 bsiiupsi 2831110251 edt sis atao unsm sasdi Ilsis1i1 ns:gsT"

snq d beaus snsonns temoiau3 sib aismo1au3 miolni 01 nsIsi stnii sib sbubni 23203 irnem easili

nilis1 1u8 .(Và! .q OQQ! wb1nsM) "snsd3 s3ilq £ tuods ol nsvs beziupei flo11e sill bus ensrb

nh11u3 'to 212o3 - 1nsmo1qms bus iuqluo Bnitw jbs 10 alao3 sviis,lainimbs 00 anIid as3iiq tsujbs ot

113111w - isdisoiIs atnslq nwob niao13 (aiao3 isvonwt bsiai3ous sib dtiw) atsItow 11o ni1 noil3ubolq

.gnii11ns 11 ,eis1 mssa

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Page 34: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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stdiwEIq £ ol Iseq - bd Iiom bnB noiie1e sisvbs Tho3 ievocriui - asiloedi ew neiaffie

id ni eno sw biol .3s1 ecu illiw lneiaiano3 siom u1 ames eeq sib ud 03 exisb A .sviiom ll3fls3

"slidomoius nbIam lo bodbsm id ni sno1 aw ed eaussd bib sil nsdw sw rbua nnsq cii vrJaubni

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.(ÔQE a) "UQI lo emilnhqa

ed bluocle isdb asi3iIoq ie*isrri iodsl Isnisini sib 10 anii,o sill asdn3asb (8Q1) do3st b,olns2

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wen sill'" :iud gniib bsct £ as levolnul sea 03 ems3 annft emil ernza sib IA .(O8 .q) "noiaasiqsU issiD

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8

Page 41: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

on d aw 338118 iiI3 iii8 .83,01 *iow sth ebnqu 03 amo1q ni1umii2 d o 811om r1ia813ni teim iodsl Jnie3ni 3di Iiiqs siw odw 1noi3ianii ni &znft lo ai nsm 3d) 03 woivdo nzem

oi fI1Jon3 woivdo ion duons noi3 idiien iew evi3ne3ni n8bm3 .aroz ewo1 bluow arn3menSflB .(8Vt .cz) 38i11m odsf 1irieini nsbom ed) e3ubolq

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.135tinoa Esirnol £ lo nriol edt aesi nistsc1 sib bus noimi Isnriol £ Ui

asebi lo 1e2 s ni bnuol ed aqstheq sm iibiit liuiimon bus ninistsd neewied ni1 n!aa1m eIfF

lo sieve! insnu3 luods noiisnnolni 'atnss :,oeth nsissirsX wen Ui beioni ass! o 810111 need as,! Isdi

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Page 42: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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sm ",ebianI" .1nemsei nr1e3-i1od2 lo ashsz io a3nemse, mie3-no! wen lo anoiisi3oen fli 2151OW

lo iftJ3ffiib silT .o ob 01 noiMnnomni edt 1381 md al3oda I8nimon ot 2bnsmeb esw ileift MujbE 01 I%tW

.meidoiq b53215i £ 2 bod2 lnsups2cJue ot 1nemeei miet-no1 £ nixebth

iiedt Mdl lno ;z13od2 51 5iU2 tuod2 noij2miolni oz evsd eniisd Mdl smuazc Ion been snO

noitslofv tdi zlzsggu2 noiaeiqsU MsiO silt lo e3neheqxe edt noitibb6 nI .i3eheq n6di sI i noit&iridtni

ot eanoqasi iii biswqu saiiq bns biswnwob sw ni1au1b8 lo 1203 edt to isq £ ed sm annon Isboa lo

'aniw no1" ahsvo1beSI

as3nsthuIaib nm Mdi 21 noilneflfi niassxjni nivie351 al Mdi daisasi s133 aasniaud lo emedi A

edt ai as e1qmsxe inenimoiq eno ai noiase-iqeU MelD silT .aevil no1 evsd Iivii38 31ffi0fl035 01

ebivib Mdi anoitiaoqmo3eb Iitaitsta elqmie isvewod 1lisns sioM .aO8QI edt lo "aiaoiebaoui3

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.(88Q1

lo anoiMn2lqxe ol eRneII2d3 Insnoqmi 88 eaoq mnsmo1qms bn8 Iuqiuo ni anwa tnetainsq

£ svsd vm tibiii eiiq bns ssw lo aleboM .aeiiibih e3hq bns esw tiaoq Mdl ae133 aasfliaiJd

oa ob ot aiqmemM emoa eiiqasb as3nathutaib 3iznono35 to sn8iaialeq edt ninis1qxe emit tIiJ3flhib

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8381 Iaum (aehota isbiaiuo-isbiani ni as) asiiibih Isnoitwilani iiaoq Mdi alebom neve InS .aniwa no1M

bluoda 2831130251 lo InemoIqmsnu 1ns3ftinia asMsi Mdl noii3hl nui3s1Ino3 nA .smmslib niwo1lo1 sill

.ae3iuoasi elbi eaodi lo san eisrn ol ns3ubolq niqmo3 lo tnemqolevsb edt inqa oals

01 ai as3nschlnzib 3neupeñ-ilid lo e3neIaiaieq edt nim21qxs to sw eno eio1ed belon ew aA

Page 43: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

b (3shBv ebiw B iii noitqmueas nommo B 233s115 3n832i2Ieq evBd ns a3Od2 bnBmeb iaib su 2B tassi is asog isdt monooe edt luods wsiv lo tthoq B bns afsbom Mthwoi-woneobns"

lo iei1sv £ 03 sub ed sm aI3oda "bnsmsbM lo sneiaiaisq auoneobne iosdi nI .(QFQ!) isisqmuda2

Is3iaaBI3oen sLqmia edt asxs1e sno szrno isdi ai siwsistil "diwoi wen" silt lo nsnsb silt lo enO .aiot3zI

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.msrb ioI anoiisnslqxe sldiaaoq woiizv noms

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evsd as3nsthljtaib bnsmsbeissigs Isdi noiton sill' .emit nol £ iol iltwoi auoneobns luods niAuiidt

gniwa nol no eiuiisietil eis1 £ shebnu enil3sb io dtwoi tnstaialsq diiw betsi3oaas need asmiiemoa

.aOQ1 sis! silt d noidasI lo tuo mew lel ibidw

03 lsitns3 ai — 6iB8 81-ôt hfuoi lo

— "aeI atsnuX" noitsiub-no1 lo nonsrnonedq silT

lo ioiaid edt Isai3no3 edh3asb 03 gnitqsnens enons besbnl .sioiaid 3imoflO3eoiasm ns3hemA

asl3'3 atenu)l .ae133 a1sn.uX tuo niitotq Ilsiinsaae lleamid bnft 111w mnemqoleveb monoe nB3iI$fuIA

zfiiw asbi3nio3 sb 11363 .aqmIJI3 otni aeiisa emit *nol B niinsio lo ansem tnsJnevno3 5 tw ion eis

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gaibliud bsoilisi biqin lo boiisq silt 3tqiJünBd Ian& bus nibliud 1sns3 lo sie edt ai eisdT .bsqoleveb

silt bns isW liviD edt ot ioiiq mood bsoilisi edt lo saimeb edt bns aO8l edt niiub iasw elbbixn edt ni

gland bns amood bso,lis, muflediaoq

d eldibei3 d1woi auonsobns lo anoiton eIsm nsdt eiom bib siulsistil ef3 atenu)I edT

lo bod eviiqn3aeb £ bebivoiq ml .mono3s edt ui eaqslIo3 bus itoeAsi Inetaiaisq lo amnsmom ni1iinsbi

ibidw alebom 153b8iosdi eldiauslq lo iedmun edt moil eaoosb amaimono3eo135m qisil ns3 isilt s3nebive

nommoo £ 3a5ua s133 ubas thduiw snemonsdq lo &nsnsq islimi .auiiwa no1 rnzlqxe tdim

sis bus 1asb3 aiohsv edt 660i35 nommo 1ds*tsmsi sis sl3(3 atsnxu)I edt lo asasdq" edT .mainsrbem

Page 44: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

a*iowtsn nOi3thOq2n1i 110 nob3irIianoo edt Ids3on tEam — Esitivit3E lo E$3fl8U8E limi2 diiw bstsi3Oa

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cii sluisIsti! Thsv Eidt lo wsiveI silt Q1 ,iivomsidA se2) "sb nibliuicJ" as aniwa noI sdiiasb 03

.(QQ1 siiwonisS 8Ql uomolo2 bns l bus 8 aistqstb OQQ! asduH

nins, gieht eldiaaoq iljiw —

nzsd asb ibua wod licods 3nsmseisaib bss3qasbiw ai sisdT

a' szsdT Ot.uoiansqxs o1 ss3a silt tea tacit 2103351 15313il0q 10 Isi3nsnft ot 21301k noitsiimmi moil

03 aiswans silt ieve3sdW x.bns cia 03 ash IbIJa 3dgioid tacit aioi3al silt iuoda 3nsmssaaib islimia

isitnoñ silt no noitsIueqa bsoilis bus nib!iucI !Sna tnsmsIiisa bus! tacit ISsI3 ai ii anoi3asup saoili

rliiw bstsi3Oaas sisvi asaasrnq sasili cii a1saisvsi bus wine dinsstsmn sift lo arnood edt 03 IrItns3 stew

V8I 10 InqA cii bisvitasw noi3s,im elqmsxs io1 .tnsmtasvth bus Inawtasw noi3s,im cii asnibeb biqwi

nuisIusqa smw cbidw —

abso1lis$I .snols asana)I ouch sb eq slqosq 000,! 10 Isvins silt cii beiluasi

silt besiuons —

ecu lrnnt Istnsntnoan21i £ to noilsqi3iins cii ascii wee nibliud bus bus! ci 1ivssd

ss3iom beisoa as3iiq bnaJ .tne3Isq as ibum as d esaasq lo 3203 silt nnswoI d noiisim

V8l lo slbbim silt ni 2WSfl 153in10q saievbA .bsmood 213032 bsoilis, ev!tsIu3eqa bus wsi nibnei

lo flOlt3lrztaflO3 ismi3 id! 233ci5U5Efl03 all bits aeho3iT1ei silt cii vIsv&i2 isvo 33iftn03 sib dtiw bstsboaas)

bsoilisi bus bits! svhisiu3eqa lo saqsllo3 £ iol sidianoqasi used svsd 03 2ffl582 (suit lslnsnutno3ausit £

sanshsqxs aidT .(IQQI fldiswd3 bus arnmolsD) noitsiimmi biq21 lo bus sill bus asehq EsiihU3sa

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sinhfl zA .(aiasmtasvui bus anoiisi3eqxs 3th3lOIthsl llsu3um) al3s1fts uiqcpn3a3ood IoI Isiinstoq sift

ni3ubo1q cii sdto ibas bsrzcftnisi nefto as3lol sbia-bnscneb bus sbia-1qqua asion (*QI) asmodT

lo abiabnata cii ae7ne-isThb 03 bsbfloqasI noiisiim IsnoiBerIstni bus Inoiianistth as dlwoi aimonooe

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.!biqsI sv nhw30o

£ tacit 3asua astai2 betinU silt ci ',lls3holaid asI33 nininol lo amsllaq tc flOfllffiO3 silT

Page 45: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

Iu3qs3no3 I1bq2 £ dtiw nied Iwm sb3 1snni)L sib ninM1qxe 10 stdsq& thwoi auonsgobns lo Isbom

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Page 46: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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lnssvnoD .asvsw nol beiisia ai3oila sisf '1upinu isift suis at bisif ed bluow ii lud asvsw nol

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bits ni3nsnft sib ioI inioq 15301 £ 25 bevisa 113111W viuins3 zlins03enin Iiss sib ni nolaoa sbubni

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sib 1131w ibuoi iii asni,oasi eaoib Bj'11 ol 151183 £ lo noit3Inlano3 sill rn3nsnft 'd Ismoabnsd bslflotq

sib ste mullsdiaoq sib nI .(VQ1 tslbnsiD) noii3ubotq bits noiisfloqansti 1o tiowlsn niiixs

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sill' .(VVQ! tslbnsdD) asaiiqislne lhiaubni 1o noiisinsio sib bits luqluo bthiaubth lo noiludhiib

Page 47: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

niehom edt lo noil&s13 edt bna 1boiieq idt nhub nilehsm bnE 1noitudht2ib floii3ilboIq ni noituIovsi

eisJ .rnonos edt iii noiiulovsi thiq £ 1e1EI siew 3nemsBnm I31d3W1$If1 Io nrioI etElOqlO3

Inois bn Iot b noi3e11o3 £ moft monOs edt b noitinileb edt begnsd3 sqo !3idqE1oe

idT .noilsn edt iuodijouIt bernieqo tsfit anrift diiw mono3e 1noitn eIgnlE £ ot eimonoe

— (VQ1) ielbnsdD d beizsilqms thowisn niiisqo lo 2simonoae silt bei3eflsi Ieis1 noi1&rno1nui

tnsmesnGm 3nivoiqmi d "tuqduoidf did bns eIs noiiaubo1q isgil tnsz3lfis etom nivsirbs

.(V8QI E8Q1 bIei1) nhie*im ebiwnoitsn bn noitudiiteib

Ino silt ton eisw 251313 bn6 aAiowtsn noitthoqansit nibliusd bnt 2isitnoIt wen ninsqo saiuoa O

m snsr13 ls3ioLotui3si auoneobne evod bsw32ib 2A .gfliW2 iio1 ni3Ubo1q Eli 2iOi3 nitudiiino3

ilinsetenin hs silt ni iiwbni slitxsl sill to silt iii hE1u3iflEq — hew a tnsfloqmi nssd svszl

bsoL3 dhiw monoe ns ni stu3u1 sill ol nblooJ .aO81 edt ni diwoig InuiIu3ii bn 1uJifls3

evitilsi silt ie3ne3 nsthu 1mB ahow3sn noiisnoqansti beqoleveb-hhsw bns aeiisbnijod 1idqsios

edt ni "ieitnoiITM wen edt Idsvis3noD .ie3sei neve ed 03 1eIil ai aiotsI Is3igolonibet 1o s3nsfloqmi

'to arnisl ni benlIsb "noitauItBno3" wsn iltiw jsitsq nstft isiltsi hsiolomfet ed sm monooe ns3nsmA

sis seitihstnstxs how1en bns anoitsi3sqxs tns-l8vno3 tilt instxs edt oT ".swdidiequa noiisnnomni" exit

ed sm eiutift silt 'to sh atsnxuN axluoiilXAssid h3ioh0ud3s3 niilei ioI anoitibnoasiq tnstioqmi

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ai ti wilt bas lqqIJ2 e eigs ni ssnsgi3 nui-noI noiiorn iii tea neflo thoda bnsmsb beton bssils as

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aaoies noi3seisaib mon 25 tnsvbs t25ua atsitnoft bns 251313 eAil aiqsanoa Isilsqa lo s3nshoqfm

asI33 assniaud bo anoi3svisdo bo xsdmun edt builT .ensrb 3imoflo3eOiCsrn nibnstauebiw tob anoilszol

lo sI33 silt asnftsb eno 5300 .fmm sis stsb 'to aiss' isbns1s bo tsdmon silt duodt neve wet ed vsm

Page 48: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

asu aidT .sL33 lo isdmiin sdi aimiI 11iins32dIJa isrb noiisiub iss-nseidis 10 sd oi isisini

bni sthqisins anwoi bnB aei3a mI) £tEb Isnq no ni'Isi 8 .noi15igRib moit ssinsvbE isilflzit

ni work ew A .smdioqñ niizsi nssfw £ib sth iii noiithsv noi-o iio!qxe no sno 1sijbivibni

srnse ssdi 253IOmniel "iiIiiusn-non knoiiuiilani" lo noiiino3si noiau3ib insupsdu sib

anoii3iIqmi kio!obothsm

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llsw "anoi3svonni Inoi1u1itni" d bee1ts sd sm diwo bnB iilid6ig 3imOn03$O13M

£ smu2s1q snsrb knoiiulil&ii lo noiw3ib A .alaork bn&nsb bn tqqu2 bsnfleb Iknoirnsvno3 siom

anoii3sb sAm 3ith siihns sbubni oi anoiluhii2ni snileb ew soqnjq iijo xo1 .anoiiuiiani lo noiiinflsb

a !Isw s fluo3 bni noinu iodsl nad insmnsvo a ibua) 3i1noz s3loIns bns siBIus1 io

io fl0i1si3o I&zrzol (noio1 Liriq £ in bsibodms ed ion sm isdi "noiiiIso" bns "aslin noii3sb"

isdi swill sis iotaid 3imono3eoi3sm lo inloqbnsia sili moft anoiiuliiani niiasisini iom silT .isiino3

blsiq xsLA A .msdi 1351181 lqmk usd1 isdisi olonil3sl bus aslasi sniJoasi noi1srinoIni snsuftni

83tod3 lulsaoqiuq £ as snsd3 Lsnoiiinilani nislqxs ot i3niiani a'nshoiaid sill siiqasb bsuis asd (!8Q!)

smil ni inioq ns is isib asuis bIeil bssbnl .nwo usd1 lo sIlls no esi bsrrrioI sno anoi3uiiiani nsfio

io1) zisismsisq lsnoiiuiitani instloqmi laom all 1 laom nsvi as sisi laum mono3s isiim bs.lnsio 11S

.ilijzsi bluow aosrb siwidio ;(13silno3 sldss3loIns 05 Esiuiiiano3 irulw .slqmsxs

als*idlI ioditJ

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slqmsxs ioI n11snno3 iodsl nI .asmo3iuo ninimisisb in sloi svil3s OS 'sIq anoiiuiilani isillo

no idiw issi b&slq svsd anaholaid bus siaimono3soisfn smoe (svods dinl is bsawaib)

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oals svsd aieiism iodcl lo noiisisini sill ni as3nsdD .asgsw lo Miibiif sill bus di15sw lo noiiudiilaib

Page 49: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

is*ow 10 e'kni3 edi bn isiinoil ndi 10 tnsmsI1is ndi 01 anoiiibnosiq inthoqmi a bniaBdqm need

Q'Q! 3dhW 8VQ1 bleiI) adol bn anoiei svb3IJbo1q ezom 03 anoiThqu33o svii3ubrnqrw s1evi31ei moil

OQQ1 88Q! rnootdnsaoSI 148Q1 flo1oAo2 bnE nibloD 1IQQI noamsiIliW bria noThH 8Q1 18QI

lnsfloqmi eiew aensd3 sbu2 .(QQ1 ibivoimi 4QQ1 oM EQQ1 mooIdnsaoM bna mottabnu

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sill moñ — suis (P.Q!) IceM bits (OVQI) oaaoisD .noiansqxs biqsi nhnsnft ni aniinse benisisi

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i1c$1 bits zhimosD nisv islimia £ nI .ensnft fsn,six 10 23203 elsvhq ioI alfisned bevi1-noI bsd (Ideb

its IsgisI —

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1203 sib bs3ubei Ilncamngia — monoe sf13 ni asnssb 3idqsiomeb bits 3iIoq xsi lo lftsnsd bsbnelniiw

.:A3o32 nommo nilisa 1o ataoo sill ni3ubei d sbnift lssnslxe niii 1o anoiisioqio3 Ish)aubni 01

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noilsbiloano3 bits BnithnsId no anoii3iiiasi llsbsqas — noiislusi Insd 1o agnimo3noda sill asiasdqms

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aivsU) siulsislil it1l ni *iow iasihss sill' .3ilids3ath betomoiq bits noi3s1umu33s lc11qs3 bewola awoli

Page 50: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

88W al ism 1s3iq n831,smA 3ib bsdaiIdias (18Q1 nsbwon 8VQ1 asmit 1QQ! sf1 Q! ,bQ1

ams3aa rri1md d31w1d sbiwnoi3n bs3isqo ibidw ashfl1uo3 iss1io 03 bsisqmoD .betnsmBsa 1did

etzi tiIoiq 1noisT1e3nI z1o138a bifE anoigs aao 13ei bssThb asii 3ftcnq bn asi lasieith

monos sdi lo eqO3E 3idqs1os sili a viwns dtnesisnin sf13 lo 1Id s131 sf13 m bsnsbiw aIiinsisThb

dQQ! aiiimo1D VQ1 e1bnadD) Ibiqi bsbnsqxs noibubolq 10 slsaa inshflhs murrrinirn silt bn

wen sili lo absen sift ssm 03 eldsnu siew aInBd tuw 1Lsm .QQQl nmsiE8 bn 13s3A QQI jnodnsbo8

silT .Iinuo3 sili 3uoiIuoiil3 thowisn noiiudhiaib bn noi1wboiq niiisqo aunfl sisI lo noiiisns

iii siom ssi3sqa 03 em3 aAnsd a Hma 1sviiE1sr asw 83f1fIft 1hiwbni iii aInsd 10 flOiiqL3ifl6q

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Iiziwbni sI& -egisi lo 53flBfI5VO bns s3nsnhI sioq1o3 ni ni3qi3insq bns aiflIJ033S lauIi niftnsm

be! oals md ,noiansqxs liimwbth bebisisi 1no Ion atao3 fli3nsnfl ,sdiH .(tQQ1 ahimolsD) annit

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.(4'QQI siiimolsD OQQ1

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(asinsqmoa sansiuani) sisiansnfi ssnom nsswisd amsldoiq 3flss bsisdisasxs (aws! nh!nd linu lo

84

Page 51: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

.tibsz3 esflom lo noiis3olls insf3fftsni bstomoiq bus a,sAo,d Iso1 bus

£ bus asis, swlis1 ,sz1ifI 113um WS 113111W — msja nbkisd iiiw sib 10 ii1ids3sni is1sei edT

sib lo 31us s osis asw — sehinuo isibo ifriw noshsqrno3 ui azinsq ni±isd iol 3iansqoIq szspinu

bisftei rhod alnsd iol sldisoii lo ssrniT .bslisins nhinid jirni isib msiza lsi3nsnhl edi lo floi1s1nsmBsft

iilidslisvs sib ni anoit3slino3 duo1d1 ssnsthWsib 1s3i133 beissqoiq bus anoi3ibno3 3Ufl011035 saisvbs

sttnuo3 isthO .(€QQI nsma&nD 1QQ1 norxoD bus ailimoLsD Q8Q1 bisdduH bus shimolsD) iibel3 lo

'meis nb1iisd sub lo noiisnibloo3 sub bus s1ns xs Ash 10 flotis3ffiSlsVib sib lo atiIsnsd sub bsojus

sldissoq sbsm aAnsd sist lo ,sdmirn llsms £ ubiw msts nb!nsd £ 113111W isoq Xe iia1svbs oi ssnoqss

iinu noitibbs iii .(dEQQI si1imo1sD 1QQ1 flsiiswd3 bus thimolsD 1QI no1ioD bus shimolsD)

sib iol bsdauq nid3nsld niwoILs iuorliiw iilidsis niAnsd 8v311135 ot isse 2Isfloqqus niAnsd

3nifluO3fl8 cJ msisa sub lo iilidsts sub benimisbnij isuthift 113111w e3ns1uani iiaoqsb lo inemulsilds3ss

A3OISSIIW QQ1 s1idW bus shimolsD dCQQ1 eiiimoIsD 8Q1 s1iu1W) alnsd d nist Ash 8v15583X8

.(4'QQI isAsddmu)I bus

ni bebes33ua aissisini Isbsqa noiiixjasi nblnsd tinij gnixslsi lo ailisned Isiineioq sdi siiqasU

.(4QQ1 siidW bus ahimolsD dQQI ahimoIsD 8Q1 e3iu1W) noi3sIaisI ninid ubusid ni3o1d

£ ion asw gnblnsd ubusid zOc8! sub 03 ioh .SIS11 sloi tnsnoqmi us bes1q "s3nsbnsqsb disq" 1shoisiH

lo 81s32 308131fl8 muminim sib s3nis jlsrna 1dsuis ssw nb1nsd ilnu 1o 51503 sdi bus suasi Suoiinsiflo3

bno3ea sdl niwQ .inioq isib 03 qu belimil 315W monos sib lo sqoa 3idqs1oe sub bus smut Ishiaubni

gniiaixs sub mono3s sub no inisuianoa bao3 £ sm&sd Iniassuzni niAnsd 311w as uoilulovsi Ishlaubni

wsn sub 03 ms3aa nbfnsd sub lo noiisiqsbs sub betimil 2sif Is usd3 bus ausAusd iinu lo atasisii Isi3sqa

.s3usmfnO3 bus sllnlu3hgs vu3aubni lo zbssn

suit ,ol ssta suit isa bsqled ms3aa Isbusnif edt ,oI awsi niinRd 311w lo 553fl5US5fl03 suiT

iii bs3sei asw b&I sub noitsIusi Isiansni't 3nsminevo ni aensub isom siIJ .UQI ni b&1 sub lo noitssi

d3iulw noisaimmoD vusisnoM IsnolisM sib lo bliubnis,d s as — VOQI lo 3iusq suit

— aiah3 s lo sisw sib

03 smit sib lo aiaimono3s Isi3nsnñ inenimoiq taom suit lo usm bus aisAnsd ansbititoq usdtsot tduoid

Page 52: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

svisas$1 Ineb&1 sift isvswod niinad ilnu o aiiiIoq sib nsviO .me3aa nbInsd fla3flsmA sib nBiasbei

sift sd o3 booiaisbnij aaw rbidw msiaa niind sib 10 noit6tnsmBsit sili diiw thhsb bobiov6 i3A

niAnad sib sxilidsia oi bengiasb aaw b&1 sib bsianI .mstaa sib iii 3iLidaiath lo swoa I6insmabinñ

.asjsi iasisini lo 3ilimlov I6noassa sib ntoizbei bn6 nibns1 gnadxsini gniiimiI d msiaa

II .3sm svisas, sill olni noinsv,sini 3Ofl035O13 £ a 116i3nsaas bevisanoa aaw b&1 silT

I6noaasa Is asvisasi lo Iqqua QbasIs ns lo s3nsads sib laomsio1 bns iaifl bsmsi 03 bebnsini asw

nitns1q s3nsnfl abssn sib 03 bsni1 —

bnsmsb nsof iii 2noiisul3IJft 1siioae nsvit) .3nsIJpsft

nsswied saooib ol beno1 sisw et sins sib ni aInsd — s3ubolq 1swi1u3i1s lo niis*Ism bns fIii2sv1Sil

sisI iii blog gnitloqxs bns gnitioqmi io oi3sx svisasl-oi-nsol iisib ni anoiislfl3uft lsiioassa gniwolls

ii) noqxs bus noqmi ol bao3 asw bIoE) dt.bnsmsb nsol ni anoiisu3ijft Isnoassa ol sanoqasi flu asiiiinsup

sisift audi' .(8Ql isiflO —

oiinsbA sib aaos 1 nhd ol blog 10 sulsv sib lo in&•isq .O hIuoi 32o3

sib ni asassirn lsnoass .bnsrnsb ibiw sisulzwft 03 aoilsi svisasi-o-nsol wolls ol asviins3rn no13a sisw

-03 sib ni beiluasi so1sisib bus a3iaoqsb iisib no ni31us1sb lo ah isissig Is ansd bs3sIq oils, nsol

sisansqmo3 ol 1)33101 sisw aisworiod smir-ssq aiulT .bnsmsb nsol bus asisI lasismi usol lo insmsvom

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isib s3usbivb azIJ3aib (d$'QQI) bisdduH bus animolsD bus (lQl) nolioD bns aiihnolsD (88Ql) .16 Is

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a'b&1 silT .b1o bus lsiiqB3 ngisid lo awolt iii bus aslsi iasislni nisio1 bus ..U th noiisuiuft

uiIi ansupsi1 isnoassa is asvisasi lo 1qqua 3ilasls us sbivoiq oi bsbnsini saw wobniw inuo3aib

.swofl b1o io anoilsui3lJfl 8351 msisini Isnoassa iol been sib thisivdo

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53ni5 Ath svtaas3xs Is ms3aa gniiusd sums sill lo ssvisasi sib bs3slq Ii isib bougis insmsgnsris

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Page 53: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

isin&-snom bus aisInsd nsm3asvnJ io1 asaaol be3uboiq asiniismoa li3illW aiskism asithusa flu &nsldoiq

asw aidT .aioiiaoqsb usd3 sqsu 03 alnsd lEa 10 3ilids sift nsissuib bluo3 msdi oi snorn insi isili rAnsd

lsi3nsnit uosm usdio eu ils ni bus V8l 'to 3jn5q sifi niwb slqmsxs io1 .11153003 b usnswnu us ion

slou lnsiioqtni us bsslq 153083 Isi3usnft sdi m seasol lshsm 3iuuea sue niInsd lsuoiisn sill 'to a3iflsq

sill duoidi benimansul ed 01 bebnsi sis nind Isnoilsu sill nhub assiuD .msiaa sill niilidaissb m

rIsLiswd3 bus animotsD 1QQ1 nofloD bus thimolsD) nwob bimsuq sili 'to qo1 sill mou't msiaa

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Page 54: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 55: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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lb 581st visuino3 edt nO .noirsfleQ emo3nl lb e3nsbivs on saw susdi lufi. .

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.(14ô1 .qq). . .aias saoxh ni tnsmolqmenu sieves tev cdi 01 guiwo £Q-Q8! iii gniggsa Mgila £ mon

ni tevoinul todsi 1szhoiaid usdid tol noiisnslqxe lno cdi ion si noilujitadus lslot3satslnI .Q

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.aOEQl cdliii aci3ilóq

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8V

Page 81: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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.zlsvisini iss-8! is Id3iJo1

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ni annft siuism isom ias31sI sib ol benftno3 saw 3nbnsnft d3u2 (!QQI gnoJeU) enanft Isnisixe lo 21503 bus abnod) aunft saoib lanlap amisb ioinsa oi beiinas, sisw lls3iq1 ssuaai wen bus monoe sib

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noisssiqsQ issiD sib gnhub arnn load bus asujlls1 niinsd lo asvsw sib lo sim ton saw aidT .4! sieves diiw bctsi3oaaa ,tsswbiM bus drno2 sill ni smsldoiq lsnoi3si ibiw nspd sasilT .(€QQ! isl3iVT) lst3nsnft 01 .bsciqa amsldoiq bib isisi InO .asaaol naol 01 slnsd 'anoie, esoib d siusoqxs bus noiisftsb sk3 aasniwd £ iSSU beTwo3o osis ams!doiq 3nbLnsd noiszsiqeU IssiD .bsoids bus tasa sib iii 21511153

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Page 82: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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Page 83: CP'4 - National Bureau of Economic Research · niIn ib ibod moft sib irissi bni insi2ib .isq silT ninitsb 3i3ths33smd3 lo sib 1shoiaid wsiv lo edi monosoim 21 231 aizsdqrns no -ibq"

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