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NYSE: PSX www.phillips66.com Lake Charles Refinery Credit Suisse Conference Greg C. Garland Chairman and CEO February 13, 2018

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Page 1: Credit Suisse Conference - s22.q4cdn.coms22.q4cdn.com/128149789/files/doc...Credit-Suisse-Conference-vF.pdf · Credit Suisse Conference Greg C. Garland Chairman and CEO ... Lake Charles

NYSE: PSX

www.phillips66.com

Lake Charles Refinery

Credit Suisse Conference

Greg C. Garland

Chairman and CEO

February 13, 2018

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Cautionary Statement

1

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is

planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such

forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking

statements relating to the operations of Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP (including their respective joint venture operations) are based on

management’s expectations, estimates and projections about these entities, their interests and the energy industry in general on the date this

presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions

that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking

statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can be

found in filings that Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP make with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 and Phillips 66

Partners LP are under no obligation (and expressly disclaim any such obligation) to update or alter these forward-looking statements, whether as

a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of

the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of the websites of Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP.

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Executing Strategy

2

Leading Operating Excellence

Growth

CPChem USGC Petrochemicals Project

Phillips 66 Partners

Bakken Pipeline

Beaumont Terminal

Sweeny Hub

Returns

Refinery yield and feedstock flexibility projects

U.S. marketing reimaging

Distributions

30% dividend CAGR since September 2012

$10.4 B in total share repurchases/exchanges

High-Performing OrganizationVacuum Tower, Billings Refinery, Billings, MT

See appendix for footnotes.

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93% 94% 91% 96% 95%

3% 4% 5% 2%5%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Planned Maintenance & Turnarounds

Industry Average

Operating Excellence

3

Total Recordable Rates(Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked)

’13 ’14 ’15

Refining Environmental Metrics(No. of events)

Refining Capacity Utilization(%)

Operating Costs and SG&A($B)

Phillips 66 CPChem DCP Midstream

See appendix for footnotes.

5.4 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.8

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adjusted Op. Costs and SG&A Turnaround Costs

317 302 279 264 240

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

’16 ’17

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Environmental, Social, Governance

4

Extensive ESG engagement

Board engaged in setting company ESG

strategy

Record low reportable environmental events

Investing in forward-looking research and

development technology

Promoting inclusive and diverse workforce

Committed to corporate and local

philanthropic programs

See appendix for footnotes.

Industry Safety Metrics(Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked)

0

2

4

6

Agricul.,CropProd.

FoodManufact.

AllManufact.

Construction Prof.& Bus.

Services

PetroleumRefining

Petchem.Manufact.

Phillips 66

15

20

25

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Phillips 66 SOx, NOx, PM Emissions(Thousand tons)

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Source: I.H.S., April 2017

U.S. Crude Oil and Gas Plant NGL Production

5

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Midstream

6

Platform for growth

Focus on NGL value chain

Expand crude and products

export capability

PSXP 2018E year-end run-rate

adjusted EBITDA $1.1 B

See appendix for footnotes.

2018E Annual Year-End Run-Rate Adjusted EBITDA($B)

PSXP

PSX

1.0 1.1

0.6

Assets Online Growth Market Total

1.8 – 2.0

PSXP

PSX

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Phillips 66 Partners

7

Funding Midstream growth

Organic growth opportunities

Sand Hills Pipeline expansions (TX)

Bayou Bridge Pipeline extension (LA)

Lake Charles Isomerization Unit (LA)

31% distribution CAGR 2013-2017

Top quartile growth post-2018

Distribution Growth(cents/unit)

21.3 22.527.4 30.2 31.7 34.0

37.040.0 42.8

45.8 48.1 50.5 53.1 55.8 58.661.5

64.667.8

3Q2013

4Q2013

1Q2014

2Q2014

3Q2014

4Q2014

1Q2015

2Q2015

3Q2015

4Q2015

1Q2016

2Q2016

3Q2016

4Q2016

1Q2017

2Q2017

3Q2017

4Q2017

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DCP Midstream

8

Well positioned in low-cost supply basins

Strong growth projects around existing footprint

Sand Hills NGL Pipeline expansions to 365 MBD in

1Q 2018, 450 MBD in 2H 2018

DJ Basin gathering and processing infrastructure

expansions of ~200 MMCFD in 3Q 2018 with

another ~200 MMCFD in service mid 2019

Gulf Coast Express Permian 1.9 BCFD natural gas

JV pipeline expected in service 4Q 2019

Stable distributions to LP unit holders and

resumed distributions to owners

DJ Basin

0.9 Bcf/d

processing

capacity

Mid-continent

1.8 Bcf/d

processing

capacity

Permian

1.3 Bcf/d

processing

capacity

South

2.6 Bcf/d

processing

capacity

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Chemicals Outlook

Source: I.H.S., December 2017. 9

Middle East ethane and North

America NGLs remain positioned at

the low end of the cost curve

Ethylene demand growth outpacing

global GDP

Expect demand growth to rapidly

balance new capacity additions

2018E Average Ethylene Production Cost Curve($/Ton)

M.E. Ethane

N.A. Ethane

N.A. LPG

W. Europe

LPG

M.E. LPG

Asia Naphtha

Asia LPG

W. Europe Naphtha

N.A. Naphtha

M.E. Naphtha

Asia Coal

0

500

1,000

0 50 100 150 200

Cumulative Production - Million Metric Tons

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CPChem

10

USGC Petrochemicals Project

1,000 kMTA polyethylene at Old Ocean, TX

Started operations 3Q 2017

1,500 kMTA ethylene at Cedar Bayou, TX

Mechanical completion 4Q 2017

Commissioning 1Q 2018

Long-term mid-cycle EBITDA ~ $1.2-1.4 B

Additional projects in future years

Cash flow improvement expected in 2018

following heavy investment cycle CPChem USGC Ethane Cracker, Cedar Bayou, TX

EBITDA estimate is on a CPChem 100% basis and is based on July 2017 IHS forecast premises.

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Refining

11

Improving returns

Billings heavy crude project (2Q 2017)

Ponca City yield flexibility (4Q 2017)

Wood River FCC modernization (2Q 2018)

Bayway FCC modernization (2Q 2018)

Lake Charles crude flexibility (2H 2018)

~ 25 other low-cost, high-return projects

Increasing clean product yield

Top tier refinery utilization rates

See appendix for footnotes.

88% 90% 91% 90% 91%93% 94% 91% 96% 95%

U.S. Industry Average Phillips 66

2014 2015 20172013 2016

U.S. Refining Capacity Utilization

84.6%84.1% 84.4% 84.6%

85.5%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PSX Global Clean Product Yield

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Marketing and Specialties

12

Stable, high-return businesses

Marketing

Enhancing U.S. fuels brands

3% volume uplift at reimaged sites

Adding 25-30 European sites per year

Expanding brand licensing

Providing ratable refinery off-take

Specialties

Increasing value through integration,

optimization, and product innovation

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Capital Allocation

13

Maintain financial strength, strong

investment-grade credit rating

Fund sustaining capital expenditures

Pay a growing, secure and competitive

dividend

60% reinvestment and 40% shareholder

distributions

Distributions

Reinvestment

2015 – 2017

See appendix for footnotes.

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2015 consolidated capital expenditures of $5.8 billion include $1.5 billion investment in DCP Midstream.

Capital Expenditures

2018E Consolidated – $2.3 B

Phillips 66 2018E – $1.7 B

$0.8 B Growth

$0.9 B Sustaining

Phillips 66 Partners 2018E – $0.6 B

14

Consolidated Capital Expenditures($B)

1.8

3.8

5.8

2.8

1.8

2.3

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

PSX PSXP

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Distributions

Important source of shareholder value

Growing, secure, and competitive

dividend

30% CAGR with seven increases since

May 2012

Committed to share repurchases

Repurchased/exchanged 142 MM shares,

over 20% of shares initially outstanding

15See appendix for footnotes.

1.331.89

2.18 2.45 2.73

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Annual Dividend ($/share)

Cumulative Distributions ($B)

3.7

8.411.1

13.416.4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Share Repurchases and Exchanges Dividends

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Creating Value

~ $1.5 B long-term expected

EBITDA growth from projects

coming online 2017-2018

Shifted from heavy-investment

period to increasing net cash

generation

Continued investment in higher-

valued businesses generating

strong returns

16See appendix for footnotes.

Midstream Chemicals Refining M&S Total

Mid-Cycle Incremental Run-Rate Adjusted EBITDA($B)

~ $1.5

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Delivering Shareholder Returns

Integrated portfolio

Disciplined capital allocation

Returns focused

Value-added growth

Strong balance sheet

Compelling investment

17See appendix for footnotes.

-20%

20%

60%

100%

140%

180%

220%

260%

300%

May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17

PSX +262%

S&P 100 +123%

Peers +178%

Total Shareholder Return

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Appendix

Freeport LPG Export Terminal

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0.0

0.6

1.2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Propane Butane

0.0

0.5

1.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Midstream Macro Environment

U.S. LPG Export Volume (MMBD)

U.S. Crude Oil Export Volume (MMBD) U.S. Clean Product Exports (MMBD)

Source: EIA, annual averages data through October 2017, Petroleum Monthly 19

Phillips 66 Export Capacity (MMBD)

1.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Clean Products Crude LPG Total

Th

ou

sa

nds

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Footnotes

20

Slide 2

Total share repurchases and exchanges include the PSPI share exchange in 2014. Dividend CAGR

calculated from initial dividend of $0.20 per share in 3Q 2012 to last increase of $0.70 per share in 2Q

2017.

Slide 3

Industry averages are from: Phillips 66 – American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) refining

data, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC (CPChem) – American Chemistry Council (ACC), DCP

Midstream, LLC (DCP Midstream) – Gas Processors Association (GPA).

Slide 4

Industry safety metrics as of 2016. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrous oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM).

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Footnotes

21

Slide 6

Run-rate adjusted EBITDA for PSXP assets online represents the estimated run-rate view as of December

31, 2017. Run-rate adjusted EBITDA for PSX assets online represents the sum of (i) forecasted year-end

2018 EBITDA of other Midstream assets currently online and (ii) an estimate of the run-rate EBITDA

potential of terminal, storage and other logistics assets currently embedded in the Refining segment if they

were transferred to the Midstream segment and market-based fees were charged to Refining for their use.

Slide 11

To enhance comparability to current operating assets, clean product yield shown excludes impacts from

Whitegate and Melaka prior to their sales. U.S. Industry average from U.S. Energy Information

Administration (EIA).

Slide 13

Reinvestment excludes Phillips 66’s portion of self-funded capital spending by DCP, CPChem and WRB.

Includes $1.5 B equity contribution to DCP in 2015.

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Footnotes

22

Slide 15

Annual dividend reflects sum of declared quarterly dividends. 2017 reflects one quarterly dividend of

$0.63 and three quarterly dividends of $0.70. Dividend CAGR calculated from initial dividend of $0.20 per

share in 3Q 2012 to last increase of $0.70 per share in 2Q 2017. 2014 share repurchases/exchanges

include the PSPI share exchange.

Slide 16

Chart reflects estimated mid-cycle run-rate adjusted EBITDA contribution of projects coming online in

2017 and 2018.

Slide 17

Chart reflects total shareholder return May 1, 2012 to January 31, 2018. Dividends assumed to be

reinvested in stock. Source: Bloomberg.

Peer average includes Delek US Holdings, Inc., HollyFrontier Corporation, Marathon Petroleum

Corporation, PBF Energy Inc., Andeavor (formerly Tesoro Corporation), Valero Energy Corporation,

Enterprise Products Partners L.P., ONEOK, Inc., Targa Resources Corp., Celanese Corporation, Eastman

Chemical Company, Huntsman Corporation, LyondellBasell Industries, and Westlake Chemical

Corporation.

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Footnotes

23

Forecasted and Estimated EBITDA

We are unable to present reconciliations of various forecasted and estimated EBITDA included in this

presentation, because certain elements of net income, including interest, depreciation and income taxes,

are not reasonably available. Together, these items generally result in EBITDA being significantly greater

than net income.

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Non-GAAP Reconciliation (slide 3)

24

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production and operating expenses 4,206$ 4,435$ 4,294$ 4,275$ 4,699$

Selling, general and administrative expenses 1,478 1,663 1,670 1,638 1,695

5,684 6,098 5,964 5,913 6,394

Plus:

Sentinel operating expenses* 81 90 88 94 -

Total expenses 5,765 6,188 6,052 6,006 6,394

Less:

Turnaround expenses** 368 424 516 506 598

Adjusted Operating Costs and SG&A 5,397$ 5,764$ 5,536$ 5,500$ 5,796$

*Sentinel Transportation, LLC became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Phillips 66 on 12/31/16. Costs for 2013 - 2016 are included for comparison purposes.

** Turnaround expenses are reported under Operating expenses in the Income Statement

Millions of Dollars