crime and punishment: the story of chinese strike hard

Crime and Punishment: the Story of Chinese Strike hard

陈春良博士

浙江工商大学公共管理学院清华大学公共管理学院

With Isaac Ehrlich and Zhiqiang Liu

浙江大学法学院双周论坛浙江大学法学院双周论坛

outline

• 写在前面：犯罪经济学• 研究动机• 文献• 严打：背景与典型事实• 数据• 结论和讨论

写在前面• 犯罪经济学• Becker （ 1968 ）理性选择框架中的犯罪与惩罚

写在前面• 预期效用最大化问题

• Ehrlich （ 1973 ）：加入市场、时间配置，犯罪的潜在收益与机会成本

一阶条件：

写在前面

内点解角点解

犯罪 - 劳动时间配置模型：刑罚威慑、犯罪激励

Motivation

• 刑罚威慑是犯罪经济学研究最重要主题• 需要估计刑罚威慑弹性：惩罚概率、严厉

程度• 执法变量和犯罪率之间的共时决定问题使

得威慑效应被低估• 需要外生的冲击，构造威慑变量的外生变

化，用以估计刑罚威慑效应• 惩罚概率的讨论和一致性较好，但是严厉

程度存在争议（威慑？、能力剥夺？）

Literature• 惩罚严厉程度与犯罪 1 ：监禁 Levitt （ 1996 ）、 Levitt (1998) 、 Katz et al (2003)Chen and Shapiro (2007) 、 Owens (2009) 、 Maurin and Ouss

(2009) 、 Drago et al (2009) 、 Paolo Buonanno and Steven Raphael（ 2013 ）

反对： Lee and McCray (2009)

• 惩罚严厉程度与犯罪 2 ：三犯出局 (Three strike)Kessler and Levitt (1998) 、 Zimring et al (2001), Shepherd(2002),

and Helland &Tabarrok (2007) （和严打不同，我们的创新）• 严打与中国转型期刑事犯罪问题：严打： Bakken(1993, 2005a, b) 、 Harrod Tanner (1999) 、 Scott

Tanner (2005) 、 Trevaskes (2005, 2007, 2010)

中国犯罪： Bin Liang (2005) 、 Jianhong Liu (2007) 、 Leana et al （ 2013 ）

Crime, Punishment and Strike Hard in China

• Yanda, by far the most debatable public policy regarding crime and punishment in China.

• Up till now, there are four nation-wide strike hard, launched respectively at 1983, 1996, 2001 and the very latest June 2010.

• The first one initiated in August, 1983, and lasting the next three years to 1986, most influential, worst criticized, deemed a great success by Chinese public security sector, and viewed as a good but less-welcome story for deterrence.

Strike Hard: Backgrounds and Stylized Facts

• Typical features of 1983 strike hard:• Exogenous temporary shock (fixed three

years)• Severity increased almost for all categories of

crimes• Even weaker procedure protection, quick

sentence, speedy trial• Wide use of capital punishment• Spot execution and public trials

Strike Hard: Backgrounds and Stylized Facts---continued

• Two official documents by standing committee of NPC on Sep.2nd, 1983

• In practice, stories and evidence of severity increase could be found in almost every yearbook from local public security sector describing strike hard.

• 我们看到的材料是没有区分犯罪类型？重罚、快罚：非严重犯罪更多惩罚提升空间？


• 严打的原因• 和当时犯罪形势没有关联 , since from 1982,

crime rate has been entering into a down-sloping path; and even in June, 1983, many provincial officers still cited local crime rates to show a even better public security order (Harrod Tanner, 2005).

• To gain support for economic reformation, and was directly connected with a famous talking of Deng Xiaoping in July 26th, 1983.

• There is no reverse causality. （至上而下的安排和地方犯罪率无关）


• 外生冲击与刑罚威慑• 规模效应：所有犯罪• 替代效应：犯罪类型差异和犯罪区间差异

严打与犯罪威慑

严打与犯罪威慑• First look

• 两个分析基准模型：短期、长期• 标准犯罪供给方程

• 长期因素：替代效应

数据和分析策略

Data source: Yearbook of Law

• 浙江 28 个县 1979-1990• 不同变量的定义和构造：国际惯例和说明

数据和分析策略

数据和分析策略• We expect a short term crime reduction

due to strike hard, but a positive or insignificant in post strike hard period.

• Three-year average comparison: a first look

• Regression-based• Short-term: two-way fixed effect model, observed and

unobserved heterogeneity

• Possible endogenous deterrence variable: IV

• Long-term impact on crime control: trend

• Robustness check: experimenting with different strike hard dummies, repeating key regression using different dataset

The Results• A first look from three-year average

• Table-3

The Results—regression-based analysis

The Results—Robustness Check

(1) City level dataset

The Results—Robustness Check

(2) Provincial level dataset

• （ 1 ）惩罚概率弹性： -0.589-0.9• （ 2 ）惩罚严厉程度： 26% （ 1983 作为

参照）• （ 3 ）严厉程度可以解释一半左右的犯罪

率下降• （ 4 ）严打短期犯罪率下降，但是从长期

来看需要反思，犯罪率阶段波动• （ 5 ）主要是严厉威慑，而不是能力剥夺

效应发挥作用

结论与讨论

致谢

请多多指正，欢迎交流：陈春良

浙江工商大学[email protected]

crime and punishment: the story of chinese strike hard

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