cwpqqe nv oii - national bureau of economic research...e!ui1 g9ujju2 qcbcuq nbou mc2 uq p0111.2 !ucc...

41
CLGU ucJnqu © uoice ! !eu o we onLce uo o cxceeq wo buibp urnA pe dnoicq M!woni cxbJ!c! beuiJ!!ou bI.oArqcq njj © pA iocbp 0 vUoul! uq JJJOUm2 V D1UU VII UgJU2 211014 2GjU2 o Q cupoi2 uq uo o w wouvj BI1Lfl O ECOUOUIIC KCCLCIJ JXrbeL ! bm.i oj I.1BEK Lc2c9Lcp bLow !U fOL WC2 VUA ob!u!ou cxbi.ecq i.c woe bLoAiqcq jqjjnj Lee9LCJJ 2!2wucc je e Lcbou2ipJc jOL we pocowu oj we babeL jp u GLJGL qi.ij o we bbev jcx qicjrnuqA N!CpcJc BOLU! AnXo VP vuq we 2b!eiL 2CUJ11JL IfVJ1D 4BE1 uq we ppwe OL Kcac-Lcp ou boAcJ4A LOL pejbpij cowuieu ou ENKfl rpon couc1.eucc I'onppoLon1r EuJuq f (njA jj) uq w buc!bu ! Moup,Accw fluAeL2A !2 o ejnjA cuo!ijeqcq je e ienj o buc!bu !U we oj fpoL jçce1.cp nbbo LOW e CCUfL 0L flLJ 1L uq b01!CA Kceicp qn qocnwcu qo uoi ueCc22S14JA LcbLec1u we owcrvJ boou OL bojcX oj c ebz.jwcIU onrcowc uq KC uq 2CX D!UC1.euccz pJ jonip EwbIoAwcu On1cowc2 Ob!u!ou 2Wicq !'J couucI J4flWCL j1 oLrn1qjA iujeq huJ!1A Bfc!cLonuq r'Po NW jpJ bio1cc rwqeq pA we nw Deb1.u1ciu o f'poL mn oj rpoL 12pc nuqe DCCCUJpCL cwpqqe NV oii JOO N CJJflCU2 VACUflC MVIIoMVF Bfl!EVfl Oh ECOMONIC IE2EVKCH fi0LU LIbCL L40 4?O JJJ0UJ V DflUU 1oebp if VJIOIJ1! Oh bPV0E21 HOf1K2 VI4D EV!14B402 V14 LEK0EI1EKVLIO4Vr NODE!' 1BEJ IOKICH40 bYbEK 2EKIE2

Upload: others

Post on 24-Jan-2021

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

CLGU ucJnqu © uoice ! !eu o we onLceuo o cxceeq wo buibp urnA pe dnoicq M!woni cxbJ!c! beuiJ!!ou bI.oArqcq njj© pA iocbp 0 vUoul! uq JJJOUm2 V D1UU VII UgJU2 211014 2GjU2 o

Q cupoi2 uq uo o w wouvj BI1Lfl O ECOUOUIIC KCCLCIJJXrbeL ! bm.i oj I.1BEK Lc2c9Lcp bLow !U fOL WC2 VUA ob!u!ou cxbi.ecq i.c woebLoAiqcq jqjjnj Lee9LCJJ 2!2wucc je e Lcbou2ipJc jOL we pocowu oj we babeL jpu GLJGL qi.ij o we bbev jcx qicjrnuqA N!CpcJc BOLU! AnXo VP vuq we 2b!eiL2CUJ11JL IfVJ1D 4BE1 uq we ppwe OL Kcac-Lcp ou boAcJ4A LOL pejbpij cowuieu ouENKfl rpon couc1.eucc I'onppoLon1r EuJuq f (njA jj) uq w buc!bu !Moup,Accw fluAeL2A !2 o ejnjA cuo!ijeqcq je e ienj o buc!bu !U weoj fpoL jçce1.cp nbbo LOW e CCUfL 0L flLJ 1L uq b01!CA Kceicpqn qocnwcu qo uoi ueCc22S14JA LcbLec1u we owcrvJ boou OL bojcX oj c ebz.jwcIUonrcowc uq KC uq 2CX D!UC1.euccz pJ jonip EwbIoAwcu On1cowc2 Ob!u!ou 2Wicq !'JcouucI J4flWCL j1 oLrn1qjA iujeq huJ!1A Bfc!cLonuq r'Po NWjpJ bio1cc rwqeq pA we nw Deb1.u1ciu o f'poL mn oj rpoL 12pc nuqe

DCCCUJpCL

cwpqqe NV oiiJOO N CJJflCU2 VACUflC

MVIIoMVF Bfl!EVfl Oh ECOMONIC IE2EVKCH

fi0LU LIbCL L40 4?O

JJJ0UJ V DflUU1oebp if VJIOIJ1!

Oh bPV0E21 HOf1K2 VI4D EV!�14B402V14 LEK0EI1EKVLIO4Vr NODE!'

1BEJ IOKICH40 bYbEK 2EKIE2

Page 2: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

qI.1BEIcEA11U0U if' QOO8 2Cfl2C LAJ fl544-JØØ40LqJPAc2tcuJ nu!AcL2A 2ALUCn2G flhJiAGL2iO

DcbUwc1u o, couounc Dcbi.1uJcuj o ECOUOWJC20acbJJ Q TJ10Uli j011J V D"J'J

/AG2 011 G9unu?2 qLcCi L11JGL qi9u qiiortp jpoi nbbj? Lc2bouc

bLccLcucc A9L!ca p? cuqGV uq pX G U rpc CV2G 0 N0WCU EOL 9Jj onb wo o, qic cjcc

qLcc ccc o qc jpoi. 2nbbJX Lc2bou2c uqITccq p? ic uq qi,cci o, pom.

C10L 9LG bovi!ACJA coujcq JJJG LGJAG !uibouucc 0L qc iv.ucc ! cuJ!u o qic

0 JtJJGL2 uq QthGC!9JJA W0qJG12 013 NG JJJ!2 j pcCnc JG qiCL 9uq W0qiGL NG

JAG uq qi !1UGLC1JG13P0U11 C0LLGJ0U2 !U JIC2 2np2wuqJJA ocLcaqwvc qic qLcc J11GUCG

oiJa uq qnJucL2 jppu /tG C0L J2O bi !wbOI.WLJI LOJG ! NC qccumirnpow

2JUJTJLWC !U MG JJJG MG C0L 0j JJG tJJCL uq W0JGL JIJ(1GUCG fIG NC2 0 poip

JunJupc2 i.c buurnz.q? qric 0 bLGCLGUCC !2fIGL rpu o jOL nbb1? i.cbouc o UJuI!J?

JAG uq L0U UJfl? !UJIJL1PC2 ! J0LJC JJ0I1L iJJ9T UIU TJ0IJ cuqcL H" JJJG

JWTJUUG IUJ01J uiij? WCWGL2 ! JPOL umLjccI 01UC0U1G2

UIUUJA C012 qiIl LAC MIG LG 9uq !0LJC J10f112 uqcbGuqcuq? 0 MG LvIG jcq o

FpOL qLjCG EXI)#GUCG JAG UJGffl.G fIG GX$GU w 'P!P o nuopcucq bciu-j uq

niu qw ou wcpcq pj! uq bciu-cpJq b9nz pow fiG J4fO1J9J FOUWq!UJ m.AC) o

iC2 o orru wcu uq )ociu iiowcu qica bn.cu uq fJCIL PI!U2 JAG CfWC fIG 1JJ0CJ

iu qii bbcL !ic qcAcjob uq cqumic woqcj o qic cwu jpoL 2nbbJA uq

VBJKVC1

Oh JAVGE2 H011K2 VI4D EVBT.111402VM ll.tLEKOE11EKV1IOMVT !ODEF

DGCGWPGL J4J4BEK JA0qCiII bL 4ô?O

Page 3: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

I

floibuboitfil

alnuI 1noii nsnrri bns i1ni rio eimono bn8 'O1oi3O2 ru 5IJJtS1ii1 1fi1 B 2i sl3fIT

oibu wI iEnno3 flu .IJtS 3imOnO3Oi3O briB r1ots3ub3 frOiiBqu33o fflO3flI hcnB't (Ii

fo 2rroiiudnno3 3vitIi 3Hi b9nunsx3 io aiuor! how ni qirfanoirsI3i '1imui biitvni 3vS1!

Lii 2flOtB!nO3 IBnoiE13n3E11rIi briE lcnoi 13ri81$ni o iuorf *iow ru bru flu aAni! sIirn1

3rh ud "ihow blEd" 1o '1imE1 s mofi al Isubivibcui run nth \E2 o flOfflfflO3 at ii .3ffl03111

3!flhl b3vi3391 asri al3dm3m 'Iimni rioms b3ist3no3 ois 3n313thq 31uai31 l3th3dw 'to noia9up

i391131 eiiiinIimia 329th oU udrn9m fimit 'to aiuorl liow Lii airhnIimia 3it lii 513f1t 31A .bua

sw 3rft 31A 33n313IIq lii iils!irfli2 O 10 asnw iii a&ths!imia ot aanoqai 'Lqqua uodsl

a13thn'1 d 1iinmhq b33rI9uftril rirnow riuo' brim riom riuo'Io a f1313131q *iow brim aimi

iodm! brim anw rft o bEt31nu im thth Insrnrlolivn3 '1im1 r1i 1o aoiianoiomisda 'd io ai8thom

ohsm iodsf th nwtd no!BI9TIo3 3r1 aob tn3Ixo rsrlw oT catri9lnq 9rWIo 233fl31&t3lq 1qqua

9(11 no 23i12n31361Er13 19(11E1 31IYIo ia3lib m'to 3au&ed seiim anoa brim al3rlimYto 23m031uo

3(1110 23i12r1313m1&13 3(11 aio1a anilsm 8vilntIoaan 32um33d aiis rf ob inrx3 rnrlw ot brim noa

moatuo 1hmm iodml 2'fi02 9th 3oru9ufurui '11391ib (18th (131(1w ud1om

brim nw Inu1diaH brim Imln3lmq 1o 2sT13 3111 rthuam8m Im iqrn3flm ieiiI £ 21 qmq aidT

3W .n3mow nuo brim nm nuo(to 28nin1s3 brim aiuorI anw rf I no a1o13E1 33f1313131q *10w

ban nw103loD sbu!Qni 1qmsxn iud oiii biio IIii1 fl3VS 10 b itib od oi in1 oi ml i wtnmii1 rfF' ,(OQQ I) nsmdunT ban rinarub8 mn 1qrnnx3 in5I .(8Q I) nmoT ban in*n8 ni bshnmrnu enibui 1) A3i131

1Inw ban -iunH brjn VQ!) nd3i1hO s d3ia sibui I) nnrirznmmi ban ,(Q 1) no1o ( I QQ I) iii i aoIo 9I n thug Idnnnv !nin5lnq ibufw rIuoidi brmndo sdi biniivth vnif (Q8 I) nnmdnnT ban nnnndsfl bits 8Q I)

b enua 3fmOftO3 ban in3maicfla bnn noiJo1iqs Innoiisoubs ii!idn ViiiflO3 fI1 ifin flo1iB3tJb bits mooth ban rnorri Isin5Isq b ifls srti snirnnx o erbsomqqn noismi nu ibui bo idmun msI it baA .n1bhrf3

di1o si itrli (I) no bnaIJ3ol nrf noiwib di1o ibuM .smooflio 31ffi0n033 ban aoiin3ub rI31b1td3 no noilnoxibn cAniJ di d3idW oi iax ifJ () ban ,noiioin omn ban ani1di nomn aoiisoubn ban ffl03fli Iiras1 (Ii nAthI

(3) ban jinib!iifo mmdi 1o inmqobvnb di 1fls trial ax mdi 1nmnq no n3uflni mdlo (d) molos1 ot1sn (it) loIlsi aA3aT n& .1ims1 lsibmrni td1 lo Imnbnqnbni slnmqo ndi amblirIa no 3nuI1ni tiflU(nmo3 ban booihodrfisn

'ndT .smo3luo Ini3o1o mnnnv it no ilarInl3gmnfk) bood-ioddinn1o abfln odibo s'rw lnnnm n mob (11) mnM bits Iirrin1 ban riirrin munil no 3ili-Iiocmsd3 boodioddinbo is1l di bsnimnxs vod rfoidw ibul wl n 'Ino slia

.(QQ I) njio8 ban (I (?Q I) sic)! ban asD ban (OQ I) i nirtoomoD sin sao tnsas5l .smooni

Page 4: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

iq1JxI JP° nbbjA jicwcwjO 0(11 J(UOMqc' }J12 2f1qA i flJ O fl2 iUfQLIrnLu1!O1JJ SIJq 2ipJiJJ C0A9IJUC2 ill !A LC O

JJOUJC UC1ppO1.p0Oq 01. 2C00j2 LG IIICCIA 0 !UUflCUCG O11L2 bLGLGLGUcG2 01. 0M 0

LC0L2 uq !ACU IP MC JUJOM ACLA JiJC porn MJJ Op2CLACCJ o pc bLcu2

JJOIIL2 uq C9UJ!U2 !U bI.tiCnjL ACL LC PCA!IA ILJfICUCC pA WC2fILGWG1J COL iiiq 1LU2IIOLA

WGS2flUU JJC OAGLJJ 1wbouuCc OLAUOfl2 TunIA JwJ bI4icnJLJA JACU JJ 02CLAC MC2

//C MOLJC M11}J CI01. 1JJ0Cj CC112G 2flC W0CJ2 LC MCJJ 2flicq 10 1PC 2J( °L

&iJq Aonii MOUJCI? uq IJJCJ1. LPCL2 UJOflJGL2 uq 2JJi1J2 MpO CU G 1qCuJCq lU IJJC qw 2CI2

0 IjJC ¶fl11OCOAU91JCG2 uq C1.O22-COAUUCG2 0pOflL2 MC2 BIJq CgL1JJU2 0L JJC Aonu IJJGU

pC woqj bLuicc1.2 9LC CIJCL 2bCCIUC J/G C2WC ip woqCj bLwcCL2 pA jwu JJC uJoqc

!4°J !U CUqCL qiJGLGUCc2 !U IJJG qcfcuJJiupou °LMG2 GUJ!U2 IJq }J0flL2 WO2 0j,

bLcLcLcucc2 MC2 Ou1L2 uq CLIJJ1J2 LC f11JO2CLAC IJJC W0CJ 12 COL woqcj 1UCC MC

E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu

bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L ! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U iqio2AuCLa C bLGLcucC C40U

bLçcLcucc2 oAonu UJGU uq Aonu MOUJCU qcbcuq on i:p LpcL12 bLCLc1.cucG2 iJJC UJOWGLI2

J0tJC p0111.2 qCbcuq OIJ MC2 2 MCII 2 IPOL 2flbbJA bLccLcucc2 'poL 2flbbJA

2!pIiU2 p(U 1uqcbcuqCu opc bcu COL2 uuq 91J flUO2CLAC COL 12 2bGC1UC 0 CCp

flU02CLAG 2ipJnJ cowboucu L6bLG2cunJ CJ(1.0f1U C}rnLCCU21C2 ip LC COWUJOIJ O

cowbouci opc }JCL2 MC 1pG flU02GLAC bcuirnucu cowbouGu 0LPC WOtpGL2 MC U

pc woqcj M9G2 0LAOf1U UJGU uq Aonu MOWGIJ qGbcuq on flU02CLAC bcujrnuCu4

MO jGA COWbOUGU2 OpC uoq€j W.6 JUCOL uJoqCJ OLMC I2C2 uq OL 2flbbfA uJoqCJ iu

EXbGUCUCG (I4J') 10 G2PWC woqc O0L CLIJ1U2 oLAonn UJCIJ 9uq Aonu MOUJCW

112C iucLcucLiouJ bsucj ow pC j,9lioIrnj o 'poi. J1.JCC

Page 5: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

5viBI31 3fIi 3iU3ffl oi tthom ioiáI th u o 31dB sin sW .'133iib 233n313191q iuod s1un3m

113n3 o l3thom 3rLi bn isr1rs1 th rIi1di2 to ioti sonsistsi eth brrn saw eth Io anoitudnUioa

snw sifi to rtoirudninoo 3s1ib £ nssw3d daiuaiiaib nn oW .s3rtniisvo3 bnn 33flEftBV srlt to

1qqua iodsl srlt molt siin tsr1 noiiudhlno3 13911bn1 brrn nimns fri 53f1BIBV03 'limit 01 iOi31

.onoqsi

nirrino o lobom ioi1 sf11 ln9eolq w I nOit33 frI .ewoIIdI n bs83o1q isqnq sLIT

thin lobom 3rD ni1nmiies ol fbnolqqs iuo 22u321b o2In sW .233n310'Isiq bris s1si nw aiuor1

o*ism iodst o 233flSflSVO3 bris 253n5r15v 3(11 o2oqmooob ol b32u od riS3 lobom sill wod

oth 22u321b ow III noi1oo ru .oui noitnmu1o bns ninb orD 22u321b OW II 11011332 nI .23rn031u0

nI .anoilsups rrinins brin urod onw o3no1o1o1q *1ow oth orb lo 2lslomslsq to 2315m1123

2noils3iIqmi off I 22u321b sW .2noin2oqmo3sb s3nnhnvo3 brus 33f15fl5V 5(11 1f15231q SW VI (1011352

.V noi1ao iii sbnos d3iso2oi s brrn 211(1231 orltIo

2gniiruu1 bun 2luoH ,ognW ni1i1I lo Isbol1I iobn'I A I

21uOr1 runino o elrlsnoqmo3 lnsnnfrrisq sth to Isborn 101311 £ 1i3sqe SW f1011352 etrfl ru

loborri silT .smoarii omiio1i1 ru 2lsubivibni 220135 233f1010Thb OlEflifflOb 1131(1W 20151 385W bris

ol nornow bnn nom nuo to 203n013131q *1ow brun onw 3(11 811115(91 2rIoilsups lo 212i2no3

1im11 OE2 orb molt noiblirb ol nommo ois mdl 2101311 "r1i1di2" alO13s'1 Islrioisq bsnoedonu

h3oq2 o21n sW .alol3áI 311133q2 Isubivibni bnn 2lO13S'1 lslnsisq 5111 1111w bstsIsrlo3nu Sin lud

*10W o1n1oi tsdl (13(110W bris norn isblo bns nomoW bns nom fiuo' lO1 2nOilsupo '1qqu2 iodsl

bns 2385W (10 bnoqob aruirnso IsdI \jIi3oq2 OW I1srri1 .aoonsisIsiq )I1OW 01 brrs 2385W ot 21(1011

2(1011EV 3(11 noowlod 2o3rIsrIsvo3 orb luods 2noitqmu22s to toe £ 3!sm brts 2iuOff *10w

out os1sri ot bow 3d 'sm loborn orb won eeu3eib rxorb oW lobom orb ni 2101311 bovisedonu

rfns-i i61 I1 bnfl w i&fi wod Aiow ni 1irni1 di lo !oi rnI orIJ i&1l fioiaijbnoo rD iii iorr W £

IdiuB1q 1rfim mdi 3niiqx boorlblid3 ol brm rnorf bnB a1nwq dl b 3ilrIba1Bhf3 01 21110(1 how nuiB11 .anibiq iuorf anuflth

Page 6: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

.b3Bmuja9 sd sm 1bom r1t won bnB e&no3tuo thsm lodE! ni flOiSflEV'tO 231UO

noiisuipa iIqqu iodJ 1.!

ntm ibIo brtn nimow 3luiEm nm griuo nrnow gnuo ioI 2noiup3 Iqqu2 iodst 3rIT

:midt gniwolloI 3r1 vBd

jU + = AIH (1)

+ = 1H () 3131(W

lo1133ibrn 'tirnu1 =

nmow gnuo idi g (u1o2) nm gnuo io1 d )I l8(fW ,

3qi flO2lq = (aiihom) nmow oltilErn ioI m briE (ths1) nm b!o io 1 l8dgusb)

lOiE3ibfIi =

?li nonq d bsAiow iuonL lEunnE o got 3di b ufsv rionsmq nt =

iii Ai noiq 'd b*row 2iuort IsunnE b8lu2Ern bo got = 1H

!i noi3q b 9EW =

briE li1o 3ri131 2luorflo irInoqmoQ nnsmiq = 1U

.orio nrniuom briE 2luort b atnsniml3b 'IoftanEl =

2! t iqilQ2dIJe 3r1 i limut ni tdgusb lo\bnE no no nEdi iom 3d sm 313di 33flt

.ti1E!o lo!1 b3b3sn 2i ii ndw x3bni 2irh bbE w briE 113drnun no2i3q n1 sd b3x3bni 'hi3iIqmt

3vEd 3w ti3iIqmt2 io1 .atuoflo nnoqmo 83fi$l13lq 3dt 2E ot l&It 3W

grIii3lqloini in!t 2ta3ggua Eqqu2 lodEl b Isbom 3b'3 3h! 3rIT .'tinu ot tr1313ffi303 ati b3sit&rnon

!8bom t&ifbo w3ivbo lnioq nLt moi1 .noitfiaihfqmi2l3vo ns i 13f1i112 3anI3l13lq £ 2E (I) fil

3rIT 31nit81i1bo 3Iftolq 3litn3 out iii blEwqu fiid2 s ot !qque -iodEflo onoqaoi onh i b fititu lEnigifim srlt no 01u2i31 brIE 2boog idi 233n313131q Io 213&fbo orit b 2i2t2f103

Page 7: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

111w ow ioi&I .'1qqu2 lodE! no 233n313131q 81u213! 1o tofIo iolib eth bnfi 5fflO3fl! mtt1il

2trIofnt2ovnf !EtiqE3 nsmurf nsth iorlio 213I2nE1t limá1 bnE at2oupod i&Ii noiiqrnuas odt O3UbOltfli

lEtnolsq ni 2lodmorn 1imI aoi oitilElimi2 32E3 airli nI .inEnoqminu OlE frOlbIifI3 lii atnoisq 'o

2OviiElOl 1o 3riioni 1o 'ti1itu lEni8lEm oth ni 233flSflEVO3 oisl oauboiq ton bluod2 dtfow

OlE aio12nE-It bnE ataoupod i iovowoH .2otsi ow inoflBrrnog orlt ni 2oiirIsIimi2 ioI loltno3 ow

oloffi 2qEfhoq bns t3o11o3nt 21 "2o3nolo1o1q eiuorl" a U1o noitstoiqioini mo norli tnsrzoqmi

io m ='I bnE 4 o =1 ioI O=(11W U)voD t&li wolod obm noirqmu22fi oth linsrioqrni

ioI oonoiooiq a'nolbIifI3 O3nouflni sm 23EW '2tnolEq i tsrLt ;blorf ot '!o)hlnu od bluow

.n1thow

noitiwpa

noqu abnoqob [ 2gnirnEo aol !Io tnonoqrno3 rnonEmloq or! t tsrlt 23ft133q2 () noitEupH

101 2flUflS3 bovlo2dO lovol 2luorf tnonEfrnoq aol oil t bits W ow iflOflSffllOq a°1 oth

bns 2o3nOuflnI (Ioti2nEli 2oluiqE3 tsilt miot out 2u!q t?fi Oi Isupo 21 )li nO2loq

:10110 tnomslu2som

+ + Ww = (E)

21 noitsupo artirnso aol oth (E) otni (1) 8nitutit2due iofiA

ti3 + + W + 4J = )11a (Is)

J1ub8 iidi bnn Jnuq to monx 01 biibi IAnw hio iB 1lnB1i i&f1 3on3bivo !dahinvH fT . uloAiIJo)i bun irfnnH i1no1JA .nib1ido ilubsIo mooni ufJ1o innoqmoo 11nm n 3IB i1&tnii miii bun nibhdo

bull (nimoouLhdl) mliiliW bun nthnIluot .ni1-i lnnoiibbn bivrnq odw 1) inouI bffn(2QQ 1) ntwU 1) .1qqu iodnl no onnlhsr1ni bqx bun 33nnInnulni lo l3fi llnrn s fno

Page 8: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

bris riinis 3nim13b 3noIs U nnoqmo 33r1313'tolq in3rismleq 3rLt bns isili ioM

1niL s1ims't d b3niml3i3b 315 2sw bns iuod nicrts iii esLni1 'llrnit 1in3upsnoD .auiod

.vIi33q WOif 3w doidw TJ ni bits iii

sW ni AniJ ldimssl £.I

nmow anuo'to dIW brts asw tn3n&rn3q 3(11 isrlt h3sq w (d s) noiisup3 iii

io) 3i1bq2 '1ims't s 19iutom bris 2i8ruis't li3rli 'to asw rn9nsmisq 8(11 d b3nimi3i3b 31S nm bits

:loi3s't 3rIsDnaoibt its bits irr3noqmoo sw Istn3lsq 3(11 'to in3bn3q3bni ef ISth 10135't (anildie

+ .0) £ + 5 +1W'ts = () di0) + .0) d5 + W md5 +'t.W'tds = (d)

31311W

in3noqrnoa 3BW in3nsml3q 2'13fI15't =

nbhow ion 'ti SW ISiifI8ioq -to) asw tn3nsrnl3q e'ruiorn =

13&fIE isiui e10135't ISif13mfIOliVfl8 10 3113n33 nommo3 aflui33fl3l 10135't anildie £ = bits bns 'to insbnsq3bni I 1ims't mofi rl3lbIirI3 'tO 23SW

anuo w (d =f) nsm anuo' mlu3rnsq B nrt3fis in3noqmo3 3ii513fl'2Oibi = )tt .1 b1or1wor1 mofi (a =A) nsmow

()AM (15 eu!q )11W 3SW ifl3flsfrfl3q 3(11 0:1 IStJp3 21 3E1 3SW bo'n3edo 8th isdi 3ff1U22B 3W

:10113 1n3m811J2s3m bits eloi3s't s(Ioiiensli nhin8231q51 in8noqmo3 ion8

rn bits 't g d =A io't + = W (ô)

3n91IrII III IiiiJ Iims"I 4!

ffflO't 3ffl52 orli esri bns thU 233r1313't31q C'if31b!ifIa io't l3born ioios't 3ih33qe l8bn3a iuO

11s3fiia3q .23Sw 113(11 io't I3born 311:1 25

+ + •i ff = (sV)

di11 + •"d + U rnd +'t.U'tdJ = diU (dV)

Page 9: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

V

313(1W

ffi8noqmo3 33fl31331 tnonErrrwq a'13dit =

in3noqmo3 83f131831 irl3ftsrrn8q 2'l3thOm =

fl31b1i1i31o 3r1313131q thow fii isfli 1O3BI lsln8mnolivrt3 10 fIOfflfflO3 = 83n913131q ni!dia 8th o 113i w --U bn U1o ln3brr3q3bni i 1imit molt

bnB 1oiBI

io (d =1) nm nuo' is1uoiriq B n1t331B f13fIOf(IO3 33n313131q 3IiB13fl'2Oibi = .i b1or1wod molt ( =) immow nuo iobiI 33n313131'I bliB 9BW 9th gliOmA qirhnoitiISI .I

21O38I 338w 9th bris jU tdj' U miU U 21oi311 33fl31331 3rlt fliod8 2noiqmu228 iuO

3rli oi b3isI3lnu is Its '1 isrlr 3mU8 w ThiI .2wolld1 si 318 bn,s dj° j(J) ffl1W W bn8 d 3ion3b 3W (I3ffLW 2338W bns 23flifl1n3 iuor1 ni 2fl3fl0O3 V10fl&IB1

nirliiw bns 21038 33fl31181q 1o 332 3f13 nirlliw 233nsr18v03 3srli 3fflLJ228 3W bno332 .13vi333q231

2ino1Bq 3(13 no3wI3d 33fl8fl8V03 8th 1o n013q33x3 8th fLUW 013S 318 21ot3J1 338W b is 3113

.((1W 1W)voD) 21033á1 838W '2311318q 3113 f133w33d bn8 ((mjU qU)voD) iotI 33r1313131q

b32w32ib od 111w &irlw noitqmuee8 biith edT (,b8iEmit3 3d 1kw 233fl8r15V03 0w3 3e3fiT)

.2103381 338W 3f13 118 rttiw bs1BI3llo3rIu 318 21013á1 33n81131q 3(13 118 18th ai 1h81n3mom

bns rüIdie 03 fl0fflffl03 818 3Sth 2338W ifl3rlEml3q 110 233fl3IJflfli 81U3q83 03 (A) efIIIeb 3W

'nA .(O=(1W 2)voD) .2103311 338W '23fl318q 3(13 rkiw b31s1311o3nu Ion 318

318 32311T 10 di 2ifl3noqfflo3 3i381311'a0ibi 8th oi b3tudilflB 21 2338W 11! nOI3SIISV 1BUbl231

(183 3(10 .23nu1d12 220138 b3:181311o3nu 318 3dT miW bn8 1W j(.) 03 1BflO3OdtIo 3d 03 beafteb

28 2rI0t8:t31q133ni (18313 3V811 di bn8 C) (&) fl3IJodflB noineoqmoa3b 8 (13(12 mioheq 2'8W1S

nommo r133w33d 2(101338133(11 0(1 318 313th 11 '1no 233(13(111111 311i33q2 no2leq bni 233(13(111(11 '1im11

Page 10: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

8

th oi IqqB a*i&ni lElimi2 .3n5uflrn 3fiiosq2 notiq bnB 233n3u11n! eniIdi2 bnB in3lsq

bn diU u 1Ot3iI 33n013131q

ium no ti sw 3dt b arrnnoqmo 10 a33n13131q iol 2lOtBQibflt Isnoiiibbs tuoritiW

inn&rnq dt bnB a33n111q nwtd qiñrloirsI31 9th iuocJs noitqmuaB niIitr19bi fiB

2! etrIBnirrrl3l3b sw 3di lo in9bn9q9bni 918 233n319151q itth noiiqmu2as iuO .3181 ssw

lodEl 3km no 31u18itiI 3di ni it31q b1BbnBt dflw 3ru1 ni o216 21 tI .3f10 tfi3ifi3VfiO3 h.sIu3trwq

B iol 2101tf103 9no 33fl 3n913131q ot b3tBl3inu 518 18th 3fflUB 23ibut teoM .1qqu2

*10W flu oonsrisv stffbo 3IfliI V13v rIiEIqx9 'llB3!qi t&lt fdsiisv 31ff qB1Om3b 10 l3dmun ffBrn2

iii 3fnit 'bu12 no 133fi3 i33lib B 3v&1 ansx1siq 31112191 18rft 3UgIS tr!irn ono 13v3woH 21uor1

9th 219i11$ 3no 33fl0 1B3' 19q b low 21110ff at lbw as llo3 bns Iood3a rlairl 1oof132 (1B1n9m313

bns Iqqua iodsllo aI3bom iniol oafA .25181 3BW 93fl3Uftfl1 'Bffl ff3iffWlO 118 --I9)hsm iodsl

ninisii dol-sth-no ni1ooffoa rzsswtsd qirlarioilsloi 3vilieoq £ t3ibslq tnomta9vni 1Biiqs flEffluff

V *10w b*ism 101 233n313131q bns

1OO B 5113 *10W iS)LlSffllO 2111011 3213833d nsmow1o 3283 9th (11 92fl8 amsfdoiq fsi3sq

asbuiifls 28 ff3112 asldshl3V .nslbIirl3 rf 11w nsmow bsfrisinlo 1qqua 10dB! Isiot sf1110 S1U2BSffl

)I1OW i3)Ilsmnon bus 13)llsfn nsswisd srnitlo floitl3aollB 3111 33nSLJIIni tl3ff I nSlbIlfI3 fii2LB1 blswot

lo 33rIuf1th 3rfi 3si1nmrnu ano 3n0 .oiith3iinrf3 b idmun ic1 Io noil3nuil n d m ioioil aniIdi dT . B b 31irx313B1Bf13 3iiB13nOxbi rfJ no bnpb ion ob nodrui1 f3 i&fi b3bivolq 103311 ifiiw 3L3i13i3B1BI13 33ffi b i 311110 noiiioqmob !BiJiini o 3bivoiq 11o btm w 3iw13fIjO .n3mow nuo' io iwm nuo -wfuathnq

oili3BqB i 1&1i no bun niIdi 01 nOmrno3 i 1rrfi in3noqmoo a olni Idannv inq noiq bun limn1 iribn3q3b13th di no xirIoJ3a1BfIo boofhodñi3n lo i1fl 3111 Ii 1qmnx3 i&1 noii3slBinI nn thioni 3Iidw Jnubivibni di ol

3vn11 odw ic1ioid 10 iai aw lo iiinIimiib 3111 n3r11 1rnjbivibni 3113109! 3d2 noqu thn3q3b 3Bw in3nnnn3q o1 .3iirl333a1ad3 bood1oddi3n 3113 83fIBf13 3fl0 B 3ff&13 Iliw ac)I ln3llfflb

lo noiwnib bull ion ob w lud on31biq iol Iolflio3 03 th13fflLTIif1i u ibui amos .(8Q 1) 13VB3fX3 33 . o1n i 1n3mu1iru lo 3LJ 3rfT .fli3niVnO3 11n1u3xnnq 3d ol 2UOfl3OX3 318 f1i1O0d3 a f13LJ 1dRrXBV lBIlJOthBq 'rfw

1nb oiio iuod d bobivib nirrrno ni io•ri in3m3luen3m rijiw b3iBi3on arnoIdolq fli3Ub311o ennmn B an b3inviiom irr3muJen3m (ioiiarist1 ol 3vjjjana ion 31B abodJ3rn iuO zuorf oi Aiow odw 30ffi iol aoaw no sinb niairn uiiiw

io () AM us ax ii miii babivoiq io.rx

3d Iliw a1subia1 3rfT ni OI11LJ3 s moft aaw bno aiuori eninin lo aIaubiai niaxs fbom 3113 3iBmiia3 3W .' bun aonoh1131q ni noiinnBv boinloi 313311i1 1131w bolnlsrioonu

Page 11: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

Q

nii25i3ini 3d bluow ii Aiow 31u1ül ii! 8.2331od3 8ninisli dot briE Wli!00f132 33fISUflfli 01 t3)IiI 91,S

bris a3vi1iIo io ia blirb niq83)132uorf a rbua) how 13*ismnonIo iuasm bbE 01

.rr18m'oIqrrl3 biEqIo 2wor! 3d1 of (3nn33inuIov

ninit1 bnE iuoH eW lo InnoqmoD vioIiniriT d) fuodA noi1qmuzA ô.I oio b3tI3no3nu 31B (3 briE 1v) in3rioqmo3 '(Iofi2nETf 3f11 3f(1U22B 3W

IIsrrnoI limit oms 3d1 nirifiw 2isubivibni 22013E briE I ItimiI bsbnetx3 1n313Thb

.3 3 v =sx ;('jI'i (D1ii 0 = (Ir(DIA.jS (j1X)V0 (8)

£ 1O1 3m11 19V0 brie 3 233fISflSV03 22013 briE 233f16116V030iU6 3f11 fEdf 31T1U226 3W

llEfrnoI .tIEqE 21E3 owl iisili 310fl1 816 isrff 2f101f5V132d0 io1 013S 316 Isubivibrii fl3V1

.3 3 v x,x < 1 - t Ii 0 (If(D)fjs f(DAjX)VOD (Q)

.23SW 10 2iuofI 2grnr11E3 of 2)130f12 1n3121213q r1S fIflOfli 316 3W

I3boNI 9f11 to noi16timiJ ,mo VI

fiB ff3ifiW fli 2fTOitEVl32do nibubx3 'd i*ism lodsi 3r11 Iii noitsqiaiilsq-non iffiw !53b 3W

.131ilrr3 bebubx3 316 *10w 13V3fl oriw 2ISubVibrlI .2i2'JEns 8th rnofI *iow ion bib Isubivibni

ifl9bn3q3b b3iirnul 31Om13rLtIuI .2lEubivibni r13u2 iol sfsb 36W 3VErl ion ob 3W 13iSf1IJ11oIffTJ

iii 3LbrIsrf of f!u3ifiib 13V 316 (m3ldolq eiilf b3m31 of u wollE bluow rI3irfw) 23up1f11133f 231d6u16v

wiv nioqqo fiB ioi .( I 8Q I) woJ bm iomABI8 bm (8VQ I) ABdonIo (IV I) Anas1o bn iniM o I) brmIn3 noiinnimiioib1o oloi Bill nsia&lqmB

iIirla ISIIi birn noii io noiiBqu33o ,pubni di iii ic a3viiBbl isril irlBixB Bill ol fill bliJo3 noiiqmuaac euIT . Iiml1 ffOiflB 2BQflB isvoo dll io s d3u ni .noiiuthmBiBb -worl bns osw ioI inBiloqmi ,is Idsr'wv Bedi m

w u&d rfiod jisme od 01 b'Ail ci eBid Bill BvBibd Bw 1BvBwoH .bBisielBvo od 'Idadoiq blnow cIdariav 'elBdmBm e1o13E1 3ihoBqe noiq bcui QiliaBqe doj ol BviislBi insrioqminu ia eioiill lsnoii bns noi1squxo pwbiii iqeiie

nwinb is eonnrjBvo3 orli Biuqrno3 03 bcu BiB bill cviisbi Bill iol cnoilsviocdo i3Bqe 1BB'lO eisq 3com cu&M bits

CiBB in-iThb mo-ft

Page 12: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

qLUmic11JJA cpsuc out coucJniouw2rnnwuQ oo jpt' put rpc? bLoAiqc JG91 0WG NJ88c1ioIJ Ipul qclJpu8 Mirp J90L j0LCG bnicjbnjou MJJJ uooi. tpoc /Apo qo i GOUIIGUt injp JJG bo2ijiAG JUL nibbjA cjnrictic MG 0t9fl MG qo not 'p to bnp tGGCU1IAC 10 MJJGIJJGL 011101 IJJG OIJJGL M0Lr2 jG Cf 1JJU tpG cqr1cJriOu JGAGJ 91C IOMGL 01. 1JJOG MJJO qo U0 M04C IJJUU

coUqipoIJUJ OU 1}JG WOWGL IJOI MOLJ(IU I Ø JJJG WGflJ 0J08 0t1L2 OIJJ01JJG12 UIJq 0JU11JJtGL2 NIC 1101 AdA

jd fnJcouqiiiorrn &OPUPI!JA tpf qnciptcL qoc uo M0LJ ! 58? BIG bi.opnpijiiA tJJ1t q 11JI1GL qoc not MOLJC

M04lJ40L DU118IJIGL Q LXI JJQ - 41Q Q -J4C!IJJGL 011Jd1

0qJdLDIqJ40t JJ,X J,X J5.X X08 43X -D1P1M04I

1401

DBflp1.Dq 553 J5J - 40•8J0lJ1dL M0LI(GI

rai o'M01.YlBlJgJyrny1dL ?8 J3 flO .XII 410 10? QQ110111 0JJCL _____ _____ _____ ____29IJJbJc: !11Q8 nt!OIJ 11T 1iU HOflL

o\° o y8G q11C- fO y8G Eqf- roDJ11PtGL JOfGL

911J1GL NJ tuG LGUJIUJIJ J 3 C2G2 1JJt LG bOIGUINJIJA GJI1Jd LOt JIJCJf1iOIJ 111 fJJG UIJUJAI 1LG J2

mlq\01. pC0LC JCUAIU 2CJJ00J IJJC JOOLM0t JJ0flL2 G 1 IIJC 1W4 OUJJG NJUJbJC nuq cqnc9tJon oupc worpcx. uq

, yr ot 1848 uJotpdL-qunptdL nt joj pcun rpc qr1IJtGL qtobbcq out owc awbId pd1OLG 34

conjq G9q o pi9G lu 0111. c!wucq J0L nbbjA GJ92icipG ou conq LGJSX ipi wnwbiou pA

vilouli 9uq DUJ (jj) 9uq 0jJCL q! J9 JJGIL M9G 9LG boJAc1A C0LLGIUG jJ! 0W!2i0U

OU pG MJG8 MOLJ( p0r1L (cc Ki!J1UM014JJ 9uq HGCJJU (jg)) 1JCG WGLG cAiqcucc IU

2cb9I.9c qcciaiou 04pCL LG2G9LCGL JrnAc onuq 1JG9iAG qjcc o pnp9uq1 Giu IU 01. M9C2

P1410 91.0 W9LUGq MJJ!CJJ WG9U W9I MG 9LG ILG9!U JJG 19P0'- nbbjA oi pnpuq 9uq MIAG2 9

u2bGcijc9poIJ y J9LGL COUCGLU i MG 9120 cxcriqc ipc 2bon2G2 M9G OL 02G iuqLAIqn92

211P2W1U10U GJGC2 0M9G L9C2 OU JJOflL2 OLMOL1C MG qo U0 MOM JJt2 92 9 20U0112

9JLG9qA uJciu!oucq JJ9I MG 1U0LG 9JP.fIJ2iC J!UJ(9G2 9UJOU LGJ91Th02 qJ MOflJq HJJbJA CL022

IPG woqcj !2 9J20 LG2UCIAG JU JJG LG9WG1U 0WqA [9OL 2nbbJA E!L MG JJ9AG

j14flLG LG2G9LC MJJIJG LGC0UJJU i2 bocuT9J iwbolj911cc10

woqcJ2 M!p 9 J9120 UF1UJGL 0f1U02GLAG CI0L2 C0U2GdflCUi1A MG IC9AG W!2 GXJGU2IOU o

JO

Page 13: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

11

io ith ob oT .alsubivibrti b3hlsmnu bits bnsm ioI 2noiisupe 1qqua iodsl 31515q32 rnt3I.fli2IIO3

bns airfts1 nwd 1qrnsx3 ioI --13dm8m 1ims1 bthn1x8 noms 3s1nu1 13ff 10 8xIsns 01

3U1Sv bt33qx3 3(11 bns 2utsa fsthsm niist3i &loiisup3 bbs 01 '0522333(1 3d 111w Ii --wsl-ni-2n02

bns '1im1 Is1n31sq 3111 ol bnsdwrf 3rft 10 3nio131q iuod bns sw ln3nsml3q 311110

ew 02 bns 1ds13bi2no3 213fl5m 2315311qfn03 alT .nsmow anuo 3d1 b 21o13s1 3i1s13n2o:bi

.31311 b81n8291q bbom 131qm12 di (111w *tow ol 'bu1 Isilini ns ni 3fdsls131q 21 Ii IsdI

auoitioqmo33(I wdi&V bn bboM ,iIi iiifli1 8.1

sw 83fl813131q 3(11 ni 1noio111oo3 or1t'bo ino 3vods b8di1328b 2l3t3mslsq I8bom 311T

rIi bim eiois1 83n31&131q bns sw 8th 1o 233(ISflSV 8th 2noi1sup3 2ftfIS9 bns iuod

3f11 8111fffl313b imsisq 32811T .2rrI3lsq 8111 lo 2101311 83n31131q bits 35W b 233fIEfl5VO3

s nmow nuo bits nm rwo(to e3mo3luo A1sm iodsl 8(11 fl0fflS 233fl5fl5V03 bits 233115115V

noms bns inisq bits rl3lblirLo b 23ldsnsv' 1ism iodsl 8(11 nsswlsd 233fl515V03 2S 113w

I 2l3thold'bo 235W 3(11 n8owi3d 83fl515V03 3111 IsdI a3ilqrfli (di) noilsup3 81qmsx3 ioI .nu1di2

21 'jbns

(.l(sDdj(Dd1W)voD = (cUdiw DdiW)VOD (01)

(1W)isV d5 + (1W)isV 'Id5 =

(21)isV 2d5 + (jWq1W)voDs md +

. bits Ills iob bits 'j k idi

2woIIo'1 2S (di) moll b313m12no3 3d 1153 23EW 2'fl3m nuo'bo 33flSflSV 3rIT

=(wdil)15\l (11)

(miWiiV0\0D Id5 md + (.W)isV md5 + (1W)isV 'Id5 =

. < '1 - 1 (dl)1sV + (21)isV 2d5 +

Page 14: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

ni 83flflSv 3df of Id&iiv 1rnsiiiq 1i1o noiiudhino3 di 2E of bu 3d rn (11) noifsup3

b noitioq 3d1 2uIq (W)iEV .IdB 2i noiiudilino3 'idiI dT .nm nuoIo fn8nsfrn3q 3fft

b noitudhrnoa 3dT .r1iát c1f ot b8nai2s I&LI (jWqjW)VOD.j md BV03 3111

10 O3flEflEV 8th 01 di 1Oi3EI 3fiB13nOibi dt bas ioi1 '1im1 8th mjW iw 2'l8thom 3111

wohv ,dlbo arioiiudhinoa 8rIT .noiisup3 8th ni iuo bii1 'hs3b 31B nrn 8nuob0 8111

of 2nOilUdnino3 edr s ns 8th 31E (01 flOilBups) 33nsimV03 3Ew 'al8thold 3(11 of 2in3noqmo3

22013B b1I(13no3nu ai d3irlw di o ioiosl 3s13ns2oibi 3111 tsrf I 1q83x3 33nBrIsv n3m nuo 3111

1313ms1fiq b8iBmui dr u1q w wobd 1dT nI (01) iii ion fud (11) ni 91o1 B s1q l3tho1d

bns 83nBflBv '1 13db o1 (11) bns (01) of 1BIimi !urrno1 olni I 8IdBT molt u1Bv

8(11 of a1013á1 83n3-I3Ef5Iq bim uoiiv 3111 1o 2noiiudi1ino 3(11 8UJE8m brIB 1183flBflBVO3

.33nBrrsV03 bns 3flSBV b3ifimi1

noitsuni1a Q.I

bn8 233flBflBv 1E31131o3f11 8111 niiffi d b3fsmii 31B lthom 3dfbo 21913mIsq edT

odIbo etsmiie 81qrnE ecu of (V) bns (ô) ) (j) ) &loiIBupe 'd beilqmi 283flEflBvO3

bris 2eorIsrIBvo3oius !s3ffeloerff eupinu OQ 315 eied I .83nsr1svo3 bris aerrsiisv nibnoq3TIo3

1.283flJ3rISVO3-eO13

ainmom elqmsa 3(11 B 33115fl5VOD 1)115 233fl5fl5V 8111 b 8iEmui3 e1qms lIJO 0113131 3W

iodsl 3(1110 (135810 2fl0!23131 molt aIsubi2sl 8th 1si will 3W wo1fob s 31uqm03 3w rlaidw

1imsb eiuqmo3 3W .eirnmub 1s3bo 132 £ bris °8 ni 3id1J3 B 12nI5B 23IdBflSV i3)llBm

b 2f3ubolq2aolabo 1 3UflU r11 niiuqcno3 'd 3(11031110 te)hsm iodsl tslu3itisq sbo 3nshsvo3

1111w iedmem 1imsb eno idl ise' ineieTtib flu 23111031110 ieAism iodslbo 1013ev 311110 ainemele 8th

d nvi k nimi 'ifi1 bn '11duBb lo 3flEf1BVO3 dJ () noiiaup3 nk2u 1qmI$x 1dionB 2A

+ (W .W)voD[ 4 + ][q4 + 4)] =(d 2)voD

I1o 31u31mvo3 bn onthiov upinu O r1flo ismii Iqrru rfi iniq w A IdBT xibnqqA nI .' .qe ol ni1f1o noiuoib limo iud 3Iqmn bnB iniifloa noiis1rioo nibnoqrioo di bru3 IdBi1Bv

Page 15: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

LI

silt niAst bus iedmsm 'Iimá isrlio suit b srno3tuo ts)llsrn iodsl 1o iotasv suit b 2lnsmsIs suit

1o 33flEI5V silt sismit3 sW .isdmsrn Iimi1 1o iisq sth b us io't at3ubolqaaol3 suit Its b nssm

silt nituqmo3 taifi 'd nsm anuos( idI asmoaiuo ts*ism iodsflo tnsnoqmo3 trlsnsrrnsq silt

suit idl sis tsult smo3tuo tsthsun iodsl s no 2noitsvls2do shss(bo 2iisq supifw lisbo 213ubo1q22o13

ssisvs sth nbIst nsdt this sunit ui iss' owl nsrit siom 'd bstsisqs2 sis tsth bus Isubivibni sms

siutsm 4tsmow nuo iob sms silt ob sW 1.2lsubivibni Its idi 213ubo1q22o13 silt bo Its b

atnsmom bo bodtsm sasdt iob sslum-io1 3fi!33q2 silT .2sldshsv 2'nsm isblo bus 2'fI5ffl0w

I xibnsqqA iii risvi sis noitslsiioo bus 253flSflSV 2s3fI5fl5V03 10 2iOtBmui2s

21 2irlT 2tnsfnom tnsis'flib silt iol lIsi1nst2du2 isThb no!tsrnit2s ui bsw asiqirise suiT

'IirnáI no 2sIqmsa bsdotsm suit bo us ol 2rloiisvis2do Iqque ton ssm Iimsb nsvi8 s sws3d

sW .2rIoqsl bilsvbo isdmun sms suit sbivoiq alubivibni bsul3isrn us ion 32u533d bns 2lsdmsm

oi bstslsi ton sis isIu3itlSq ni bns 251I1f1151 us ioI sms suit 315 2lstsfnsIsq lsboun suit tsult 5fflU225

suitbo 2SlSmuias iuo noth s2Is1 21 noitqrnus 'fl3ns0fr1Or1 21(1111 .'1iIids1isvs stsbbo arnsttsq

.bs2sid 3d Iliw 238s)Inil Iim1

.(JW) 251EIJ2 12s31 bsirlaisw 'd 2tflsmOffi sIqms2 suIt 01 Isbom IS3itsiosrli suit 111 sW

2insmom sIqms2 O dibo SilO ot nibnoq2s11o3 flOiisvls2dO ubss 2tu1isW siJJbs3oiq &JW suiT

ui bsawib iOtsfflit2s itS flI2U etuqmo3 SW uI3iflW S3nsrIsv nuIqms2 21! bo stSrnit2s us

n inch innoqmo3 vioixrrn-ii n bnn innoqrnoo bxfl n oi 1nup i nni nw cti o r13u 1dnrinv i*xnm lodBI B I1 . onthinv wo anid ion 111w innoqmo3 s-IoiiansIi di ridi io wbio lo oiq nnwv nivom B d bBiniq1 Bd

23iBdnui

Page 16: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

M

aion nu!qms2 dt iii noiiEI3TIo3 io1 tnuo33E ton ob aion blBbnst2 &IW edT .1 xibneqqA

2tnernom elqmse tn-i'fiib aoi *tiU .11

iodiJ1o ev,u2 1nibWinoJ 1noitEM erftIo 2tlodo3 IEniailo iuoI edt moi1 eis stsb edT

I ot N eiew orlw neM anuoYIo e1qrne edt diiw *iow ew ll3i3eq2 .eaneheqx ts*iM

nemoW 31UtBM 8ôI ni 01 II eiew oriw nemoW nuoY1o eeIqms edt ÔÔQI ni blo ies .Q1 ni ot eiw odw neM ibIO1o efqmB2 edt bn VI iii blo 21E3 N ot O eiew odw

ni 8Q I (b3bn3 sw biit tloffoo 3th neriw) nerfi nuo Io edt ni I 8? I rI8uoIth stab eu eW

ieblolo es edt ni E8QI bris jiornow eiutsrnlo eao edi iii I8QI nemow nuo' edtIo $263 edt

nuo bris nem nuo edi ol noeieq eno nsilt eiom betiidiitnoa 2blorlewod erltTlo erno item

bns nem ieblo bns evxu thuo edt ritod ot bsiudhtno3 2bloriewod 3ffl02 bns eviii fi$fflOW

-inelsq bits 2isq gnildi2 no stsb datsm 01 e!diaoq 21 ii ftn3upe2noD .2'3V1u2 riemow eiuism

.21isq blid3

2niiffi ntfw Bwboiq 3anaiib muminim Iarniiqo io JW niw ienias bn3mmoo1 (IQQ1) 1sa ban ipoilA11 3111 13v3woH noiiauii nam ni 1qma 1tsrn iii thd1o uad in3mom bnoa 01 311Ji3zni B3nB!lBvoOio 13b0ffl

31qrna di iii ol bu sie 31qrna r1i 31111w OOO, I i Aiow olinD BinoM liBuIi iii lBbienoo vdi si Blqmm mum xam . I 310(11001 al iomii JO Li ijib 3W .OOOV Bvodn ff3110 3-rn baa V81€ b3x3 owIs 'bui2 Bull ax Bin3mom

niIqrnn 3f11 ax noiial3TIo3 iol inuo3oB bluow mu loismiiBB &ID Hill a BBIJ ol Ion (I3€0113 3v&f 3W Blanmom nlqmae di nomn BnoiiaI3rIo3 rfi lo iamii boos 8fxiJi ni aBIihJ3fflth di b 3a1JB3311 Bla3mom BIqmBB thIua n3bivo ol-taD BinoM in3-iq (Q 1) Ing baa iLnoilA ua3d baa bna1adnu '(lflif1 Bi BIqmBB 3111(1311W

.xniam i1fi3w b3iamiIa an 11Jiw -1u13u-1ia 33flBISV03 B3BI gaillil 11311w JO 11th ol b5nB1r1q ai JW mdi

-xol n-i Bill BlolBd 1oiam lBdmBm lirrrnibo Bl3dmun baa esi J-iorloo lnhlnBioq lo IBII a i 8niwollol 3dT nm nuo' lo iBiBnoo B11o(fo3 J4 Iani2ilo iuol BItT alab 3111 ol b3ilqqa BiB BIflGIB inBmB-u13-I baa ni1oo& 3B è B-iisq iBdiold I ô '11ailn3loq BiB BiB(IT .n3mow Biulam 8O baa nm iBblo OO jimow auo Q I a

,0BIA .b1orbuoii 3fiB 3(11 mo-il ni1dia Biqillum BbuI3m BBIqmaa BaBdi Ha ;B-iiaq iia-1Bdlrnd I £Q I baa IiEq -I3ii1lJab--IBr1Jom 818 I baa BuBq aoB-i3rliom I V I aiiaq 13ir1uab-13dlol 88Q aiisq noe-131f181 bBdolam QQO I BiB 313111

Bin 13dl 1IaniI .b11113 no null iom ol b31loiam lnBinq mm 3111 rlliw iiaq aBbuIQni IBa blida-mnBinq 3111 ainA zliaq BvnfI baa uoq a 13(110 IbaB rIoqBl odw 1131(10W 3111111w baa (131(1 iBblo i lull ;BiBdjom baa BiBillal bBd3inm a

.Bholioo inuo 3111 iii b11113 Bno IBBBI Ia mBcli 11B3vIIBd

1imaI 3(1110 BBISInIIBB Bth flu eaid ol baBI 'tam thodo3 JI4 BBO1DB alab 1131am ol BIdXBBOq al ii mdi 1o111 (13v 3111 .noiiiib ialuoihaq a ni Bald 01 lnioq Ion eBob (1 1) anuG baa itnoilA iii n3biv3 3111 lad a38BAn11

Page 17: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

srlr or i33jdu2 tijbivibni (1363 ioI &di22oq aB 2noq3l 'd1B3' 8th10 'f1Bffl 2B 3W 3W

oth 3aus33d l3dri3 aniaBirn 3d 'sm 31di1Ev 1Iu3111sq £ io1 stsb 3dT .231Lfl n01r33132 aniwoflol

bilEvni .10 r1iaBirn 21 32flO231 3rli 82us33d io V1U2 2'1s rscfr 01 ioiiq 3IqmB2 sdt flf Isubivibni

or iohq blo 21S rs1 Is 313W orlw elsubivibni or 3Iqmsa 3(11 13111231 3W .21102631 13(110 io1

rh flOlISIlSY Oori2nS1rto 33n3ufIrii 3(11 saub3l 011101u3 3S 21(11 320(13 sW .'VIU2 8th clvB31

lodE! 3W 3W .*iow bris Ioorba n33w13d noiliansil 8th 1111w b8isi3oaas 23(11031110 13)hsm iodsl

bib bits Ioorl3a lo Iuo azw tas3I is asw Isubivibni 8th Ii '1no ias ialuairisq .s moI1 sisb 13)hsm

81b31i131 r Ion bsd bris 1ô nsth 2281 25W 1S3 Ifl3Up32dUa £ fli 100(132 01 1flU181 Ion

bits iuod .13 O12 risrlt aa3flo afloirs'rl3ado 9SW b3bu13x3 3W 2110(103 iiio'I us l01

b3131.nr2no3) iuod Isunns '1no oa1A .(aisllob VóQI iii rlrod) 1S3' 18q OOI nsdr 223V10 2flhI1153

i31S31 (133w 13q b3*Iow aiuorflo l3dffhIifl b3noq3l 23m11 b3A.1ow 2)133WIO .13dmun b3rhoq3l as

.b3rnuoo 313W alUOfi OOO nsilt 2231 bns 013X flEth

2noittwpa gnirrisI bns iuoH ,zssW 9)n913b1TIo 29I5muI1 .ffl

3r11'Io ru 11513v0 3(11 bits 2316m1123 13r3m5.1Eq srlt b flOiE2U32ib 3W 11011332 ith iii

Isrlr arloil3nIa3l lsnoiribbs W31 S 22U32ib or iS22333fl 21 Ii 21111231 8th or nin1ur 31o'13H .anoiIsup3

8W '1i!Sl3f188bO 220! luorf 11W .110115ffl1123 01 ionq a1313ms.1sq 2'I3bom 3111 noqu b3aoqmi 815

2'l81duSb 8th 11n3up3anoD .rinu or ad5 i$r3msisq lo13B1 3EW ni!dia 2'1102 3(11 3i1Sfffl0fl

13&fi8 3d1 or 3v115131 (13(110W W1U0' (10 ioraiI 3SW Iirná1 8th b 139113 3(11 21 1113131f1303

ioraál 33r1313131q nifdia 2l3Ir1aLJBb bns a'iiOa 3(1 r thod 3SiISffflOfl oals 3W .fl3 anuo (10

11s3i1iqm3 Ion 315 b3x5131 21 n0113fl1231 21(11 (13111w ni 2I3boM .Iinu 01 dA bns ad hf3i3303

bnB uiorf how nimoo iorli 1381 oiD diiw boith3o emIdoiq oiminim Iliw flOii3fli5I owl ia1 oifT ooiii io1 ou1ov "lnonorrrioq" io Inoiqi orli oJ boioloi bo13 od ion sm inomoiiioi iofla Ioubivibni d3iJ lo OiB1 3BW

onth-usv 1siino1du ei oiorll oi moil ontrr nom iobio odi b Q f flu 038 odi o3ni 2135183 iior!i lovo foubivibth oIqmo 'nomoW oiulsm oifl -to1 moonoo o Ion i lr,omoiilo$I .ofdstiovn BlEb lo*IEm lodEl b mobo iodmun odi m

.bul ow 1B0 0111 d3lJoiifl

Page 18: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

pcrcu bwcuuj OfTI2 bLçcLcucc COL fl'1 q n" !g uq jijj ttpqc Ipc wowcI-ou uq wO1pcL-qr1pf1 coucjiou cj uq jpc ciiwuq coacjruiou

JJJC2 LHiJ LCUGCI IJJC Cf (JJ Hi j9JG V 1JJ1fJJC JfpGL-2oU uuq pCL-qWIEJUCI. coacpriou ru pont 9LC

Cdrrurou2

upj \f3 Lcb0142 fJJC pJ' Cf1U1C2 ip JJC LCtUc1iOU ou ic uq jJocn. bL9wCI rn cuJru

bLçGLcucc C0L !2 92 U G2iWGq 2WuqLq qGATP0U (Q11 ) oi o uq GIUGL2 bLGLGLGUCG

!U !2 LGIJGCPOU O1fJ6 &G6L A9I4piLUA !U fiG J1011L2 0M0WGIJ JJJC 2!p!!1J

uq L1JWLG M0WGU Q11 9q Qfl LG 2f1p21JfjJA JLGL 91 4 uq 3j. JJJG G1JqGL

Q uq Q LG J'f 9U 1 3' LG2bGC!AGJA JJJG C0LLC2b0uqi1i G2fUJUG2 Aonu MOWCU

JJIG G24!W62 OUPG 2wuqLq GAWP0U2 OUIIG A011LJ W6U2 uq ojqc W6IJ2 bLGLCLGUCG2

Aonu 111611 uq WG WOfJGI. bjgAiu gjj GAGIJ 2LOU6L bo2!!AG L0JG LOt AOIIU M0UJGUØ

2nbbJ? btc1cLcucc2 JpG J!UJ2 qGbGuq 011 GIJqGL M!1JJ fiG JpGL bJA!u 2L0U bo2ruAc LOJG 0L

g Co81) lu 2riwurnQ bLG1JL jp0L 2flbbJA btcLcLcucG2 JrnAG U !Wb014Ut GLGC 011 JpO1.

bLGLGLGUCG2 o1Aonu h0WGIJ MPTIG fiG 1JJ0fJGL2 bLGLGLGIJCG2 JiAG COGWC!GIU (2wuqLq caot) o

C0UAGL2G1A 1p6 IpGL12 bL6L6L6ucc2 !L JJAG UG!AG pm !U2!U!UCU GLCC OU fIG

UJOfJGL12 bLGLGLGucc2 }JAG 21Mg11 U6JJAG C0GjC!GU M}JICp !2 Wf2fC1J iU2iU!jCU1

GaoL o UI 1C GdflWOIJ LOt fl fIG ?onu WGU2 bLcLctcucc2 111 fIG 2UJC GdrW!0U fiG

ob iio buGJ2 °L JPI j. JjJG fIGL12 bLcLGLGucca fl!L AG C0GJJCJGIU °L ] MJfJJ 21JqLq

jJJG 6dfl9li0112 LOt f16 bLGLGLGUCG2 uq MG2 0LA0f1U 111611 uq Aonu ThOWGU LG 111 fJG

MIJJ LOCfl2 OflL q12Cn22i0u 011 fJG woqGJ fJ 0G2 iJöT LG2I1!C1 uq o nutA011 MG2 uq 0flL2 MJJICp LG LOL fiG W02 biu LG2oup1A CJO2G O fIUIIA io 2AG abcc ThG

C0GC16U2 0 I !U 1J Gdfli01J LOt JO GgLu!u2 JçGJXJ1i f1626 L621L1C1!01J2 btoqricc2 cocwc!Gu2

011 M962 uq pOJ1L2 0 iiuii2 011 fIG L0IIUq2 fp po j0 0flL2 uq fIG J0 ThG ponq A6

iqGIuqJGq EOL 201MG OLOflL 1JJ0GJ2 I16 LG2L1CG fIG GLU!IJ2 6dfl!0U bILgIIJGGL2 uq

Page 19: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

VI

n 2'fi1q ti 1inupanoD .iinu o bsil&rnon nd vBrf &Ii atr1313m303 thiw anOiiLwp3

.rl3mow nuo bns rim 8riUO rftod io1 e83ns1I1q ni noihsv srft iii 3101 nstzoqmi

anolia wor1 (1W) nmow nuo bn (diW) n3rn nuoo sw 3r11 id! anoiiBup3 3dT

3r11 rio (21o-n3 bisbnsi) 21n3!off!303 3rIT .2loiai! 1irl3i1q 3rh 1o 2i38T!3 iflE3flifli2 1 ii2itBr2 brr

briE (EEO.) O8. is noitup3 iw a'n3m riuo di ni 1W bn1W asw 2'l3thom bus 2'i3I1t

rloiinup3 sw 'nmow anuo 3r11 ru eirI3i3ifl3oo nibnoq2noo 3rIT .I3vii33q231 (VO.) 8. 3f11 ui I E8. 10 if13i3fflO3 S 25ff 101351 nu1di2 3flT .jrl53ihf1i2 315 rl3irIW1O diod bris 315

riibnoq-noo 3rWIo tIort2 1lá1 o1suruii 2irIT .E81 1o ioii bisbnsi £ dIiw idi noilsups

w ur!T .1on3 bisbrusi no risrli ! d iud rIoi1sup3 3EW a'rI3frI flU0' 3111 ui I '!o 1fl3131f1303

3vsrl sW .Isiinsiadu2 s-is isdi 2i3&fi3 lsIimi2 3vsd 2101351 sw 2'i3rfiuI bus 2'13r1iom 3111 isrfi bnuI

13bn3 3r11 no rl3urrl brwq3b 1 ioias'I nildi2 3r1i 1o i33ft3 r1i 10 2i3fI3 ssr1i isdi 33n3biv3 shill

.bIirl3 stub

s oifqmi d3irfw IO. ol Isups sonsimvo bstsmiio ns svsrl 21oi3I ssw 'atnsisq sdT

nui-Io2 lsthsrn sviii2oq fsiirIsi2du2 21 s-isrfi 2UIT .QÔL o 21o131t saw suli nsswisd fIoiiEIsTIo3

21 21013dI sonsi1siq 21U0f1 srIi nsswisd f1011515fl03 nibfI0q28TIO3 suiT .ioiit ssw sth no

bstioqsi sis rbidw ) bus (I) 2noitsups 1qqu2 iodsf r1i 1o 23ismii23 suit 01 mut won sW

23i1i31i2515 !qqua iodsl bsis2nsqrnoonu silT .1 sldsTIo lsrisq sbie bnsrl fisi mottod suit ni

nuo idi (O.) h8I. nsm isblo idi (VO.) VVO. nsm nuo id! (IO.) O. sin (21or13 blsbffst2)

in3i212n03 l153iasd sis nsrn idi 2sismii23 hIsrn2 srI T •nsmow siuinm io (UO.) bns nsmow

siB iud sbi2 wol rlt no sm nsmow riuo' io'1 211usi sifT s3nsbivsbo bod sis1 £ rltiw

.nsmow bsrnsm io1 1qqua iodsl aitsi2 bo but2 (V8Q I) 'soiM lo arIoi2ul3no3 sdi (111w tnsIeianO3

io1 1d1iv 23i51r11125 1o snsi sbiw suli ruiduiw 1 Isw 21 flSfflOW siuism srltio! stSmii2s 5111

1qque iodsl 525111 fIfElOVO .*iow 'soiM d b5i29u2 25iSmui2s odi nsrli isis1 kid f13ffl0W

.sIdsno2ssl ff1532 2315m112s 251113it2515

Page 20: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

iuRe cuq bLeieLeuce jicioia Le AGLA cjoe o ryepewkedu 2!pJw r rye cou.ebouqiu mbje woweur booLJA jpc or eariwiire oupe ruuqiitq qe/i9riou opeuowjon pccwie rye iwbjieq bLeqrcreq ijne o rye coAw.!uuce2 periccu rye Offl2 o bweur wiq cjnjqleu uuqbm.curuj bLçeLeuce ucro uq pe JaCL elJ.ecr2 ou rpuu ou !P BiG OF bweujefeL eafiwe2 2GGWecououiicujiA iwboi.uuj qIci.euce peraeeu rye or uq criwc i ryu rye or eiui1fe2 iwb1A ipur poryw.e jo dnirc cioc ro rye pjj' ciwre excebr IPL rye uryci. porn2 coewcicur mpicp ' i o jpe oulA

we" rye /J'2 ernnure cbcciv1jA rye urpe jpe or pom.a uuq lA9GcoewcJeur iu rye ewinu edriuioudinre cjoe ro rye p1sj- crnnure rn jupje j jpe eariwurcq IUPOL nbbjA cj riciic tu rye or' uoqe we couireurjAor' (uor Lebol4eq) rye eriwreq muse pCIOL coewczeu uuq rye eiiwreq ruuqw.q qeAirxou2 oj rye itue CfOL2

jjie jupoi. nbbj) eJurcJfie ue iipeu rye LeapJc1iou we imboeq JJeu ie ciiwe rye nuierucreq woqej p?

ClOL O pc Au1JCd2 o bcLwucu MG ponL uq cuiiu o Aonu WGJJ uq Aonu

jpjc iJq C GWUJ!UC pc COLUIJPI1I1OU O ccp O pc MC uq bLcjcLcucc

IA DGC0mb02!U 4JJG AJL!JUCG uuq C0LPJUC 'fWOU FPOL J/PILIGt ØflLCOWG

pc wr1A COALISUCG MGjj cuonp o pc ncq o bdI.ioLw AL UCG qccowboiou

HomcAcL mc coucnqc pc bLmcGL G!wd Ld picjjA cupic uq qrnl qJc uioqcj

ruqcbcuqcu pi2 ooquc ujA pc piaGq GJJCL OL OL pc COL woqcj

nw 2dnLcq dflOL2 o jo p b-A&lnc o IUCC ipc CoALIUcca .c uo

qrupntou MJp (o-= ) qc.cc occqow nqcq W!2 pc woqc

wbjiu CLLOL2 LC SdLO pcu pc mdipcq nw odrnrLcq caoi opc woqcj p

pc COL woqc qccubrou oUpc wbc IJJOUJGU HOMCACL IUpG COAUUCG SWO1J JJC

4J3C COALWUCCa uJou pc uibjiu cu.012 in pc ujowcua Mc crrnoj bdzoLw ,ouJrnj ca °L

cxbJIu2 bciccu opc ArILWUCC opc Ø nuMcipcq 2wb1c wowcuw 2iucc mc qo uo juom

HOM ThGJJ qoca pc woqc JJG JJJG COL woqcj mp!Cp JJH2 33 JGC bLwcGL

Gdfl!OW (CowbsLc J,pJG j O .LPIC y31

2CIJ2tIIAC O MJJCfGL OL U01 MG LCLJC pG MC uq Of1I2 bLswccL jo nuiA iu jjc cI.uiu

! ornq o pe MIflJ 2uqLq GOL o jpc woqcj bLSWCGL G!wc2 9LG uo AdA

jc= p 8 uq in) c cjoc o nuiA w cc cxccb OL pc ojqd wcu OT1L2 cocuJcicu mpicp

JJJG GPWCq COCJC!dU2 011 Md uq POflL2 in 1pc ciuJw cdnpou2 (?' uq

18

Page 21: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

QI

srIT .eiiq bliño-nislBq bns 2nu1di2 norn asLdshEv ssirli ssrli'to sonsrzsvOo srft o bn.s nsmow

ifi silT .1 8!dfiT ni 2smis lsismslnq sill no bsd S1E esldt sth ni betnsasiq 2flotttEoqmo3sb

ioI .fl1flifflSX8 81 SW riILt 33flSflV 10 S3fII1SVO3 lEIu3irIBq sth I211 WOl f13S3 b flfflUlO3

33flflvO3 ssw sth t(cDdjW(DdjW)voD enimaxs sw a SIdET rltbo wo riFI oth ni slqmBxs

1db Isbom ioroI sth d boroibslq suIBv sth bn Insinom dass b stsmiies slqm ifT .aisdloid

aeulsv bsflfl briE IEui silT .nmu1oa bull briE brlo3s2 sth iii bsrioqsi su etnsmom sdllo d3s

oth rIoqsl brie l anmuloD .sor1si1svo ssw 'usthoid srltbo sth iii 8lO. briE si nI .W uor1 sw tisthom sth bnE W ioiit sw isrlrs1 sthbo rroiludhlno3 lSrIigIEm

bns lb mu srli i ibirlw ioinut sw 'rnsuEq srlrbo noirudhlnoa fstol sth tioqsl sw nmuloa

noiludillno3 sifT .1oi3sb sw uisrfrbo (1WW)voD s3riEflSvOO sthbo rtoiiudhlno3 sth u1q

ill nworf 51S 10 di 1013E1 3ils13r12oibi sIr 10 noirudinno3 sth bns w 1ol3i1 rii1di srllbo

bo anoiiudiuinoa gflibnoq2s-no3 sth rtoqsl El duoith Q 2nrnuIoD .r1rnulo3 thrlis bns thnsvs sth

sth i noiiudhrnoa uol31 rbs wobd ssthnsuEq iii isdmuri silT .1ol3ut sorisisbsig U0flSV sill

iElu3ttlEq sth or sub i r&lr (E nmuloa) lnsmom 1s!u3irlBq sifibo sulsv bsl3ibsuq srirIo noitaEiI

.1013s1

uob sldi2noqs1 i i&lr slE3ibrn ( woi) sldsl ni e1!u251 sth sIqmsxs ioI

nuo' b ssw bo S3riEiiEv sill bo lns3isq If bim sgsw 'aisthoud b s3nErlEvO3 srl b lnsalsq

ô bim ((.DdjW(UdjW)voDbo 1n8319q Il i fthW noi1udhlno3 sw e'isrllom silT (E wou) .nsm

sill eulq trsrfisb sill --2s3Ew 'lits1flq sill b noiludiilnoo lElol sifT .((Ddjw)1EVIO tilsalsq

bits sw '2lsrltold nsswisd 33flEI1EV03 sill bo lnS3iSq 4 t--s3nErtsvo3 iirl1 wlq 'usthom

bo lns3lsq ó4 uob 2lnu033s iolasb ssw nuIdi2 silT .ssw 'nsin rtuobo sonsria silIbo lns3isq

.nsrn nuo'(bo ssw sill ni 53flS11EV sr1bo 1n5313q QI '1no briE isr1toud risswtsd 1iulimi sill

.101311 sSW 3ilS13f1\20ibi sill or sub ei O3flEflEV SEW flsifl nuo i1lbo lno3lsq snin-uui1

.2fIifl1E3 bits 1IJOil 2SfiW 101 21111281 iiism sill 01 no122U321b limil sw 2noilSlimiI 33E2 nsviD

Page 22: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

(iV IdkT) 9JW LIII

IO13f3 iw ti3cliom bnE ioiI gsw 13di1 311T cw b asnsv 3di rnB!qx3 i&fW

Isoi 3th 13v3woH 'n3rn iiuo'(1o 33f1BflV 31h 10 fl13313q ô bn nioq II nislqxs

(in3313q VI ni3rft l3diwi) a'nrn nuo 1o sonhsv 9th b in3al3q i noiiudhino3 'at(1318q

oth bns 1oi3111 fiw ni1dia 3dT 33flanSVo3 £ 3v&1 -1Or3I 1iin51Eq OW 9th 3IJ33d

3OflEfl6V iIT .!3vii39qa91 tn3313q bn 1n3313q ? I io1 flUO33 ioaáI 3BW 3iiE13fP0ibi

io1 inrIoqrni aL lid £ 91S 33113 Bw nildi .n3mow nuo oI limi i noiliaoqmoa3b

i&lr i1 rIi 1fl31 ibiriw aiiq l3cIiold bnfi nsm nuo' idi n&lt iiq 131ei2 bns nmow nuo b3imii w I 31dT fli noiiEup3 3W 2tfl3fflOW f1UO' 3111 Iii () 1fl3131fl303 iOt3E nh!di 3111

.1 ei 1n3131fi303 nn anuo 9th 31111w 1 E8. 3d ol

316 n3lbhrlo bitE alnoiEqlo ew 8thbo 233fIEflEVO3 3(1110 2no11iaoqmo3eb 3iIT

11W io13i1 a'ierllsl 3(11 Isdi 23is3ibrli s 3IdsTlo E woi iii 11U231 311T .8nh123131ni I1s1u3irI6q

3(11 Isflt 1361 9th oX b9iudims i 1i 3rlT .33f15fl5V03 3BW (102-13(1161 3111 lo 1n8313q 8V 2nisIqx3

sw a'isfIlom 9th bn6 io1s1 iw i911tom oth rltiw b31s13Tio3 13vi1i2oq 2i 101361 8sw 2'13(1161

3sw i3trlgusb-13f11s1 3111 i61 t1ui 8ulT .11O2 3(1110 3SW 9(11 no 133113 13311b 6 26(1 iotosl

(V woi a) nsi1svo3 31111o in3313q 8 3r1if1i61qx311W diiw iE1imi2 O3V 316 33flBX1SVO3

3SW 2'13d10111 9th IsrIl bniI 8W 233fl51iSVO3 i3idgusb-i3thom bits n02-i3rIlOrn 8(11 ot nirnuT

bits 2f102 bits 2l3fIlom no9wl3d 33fl5i15V03 36W 3(11 b 1113313q Va '1no •iol 21flu0336 1W 1ot361

213f1iom 3(11 16(11 1361 3(11 01 3tJb 2i lsbnism3i 3111 Z13i(1U61) bits 2l3fItom f133Wt3d tfl8313q ) io1

8 2611 101351 3EW 213(1161 3111 bits 101381 35W 2'1311t61 8th (111w b3tsbllo3 '18viii2oq 2i 101361 38W

ir1J1 10 di lo 3flBnBvo3 1qrrrn rIi iullfJ ioo 3nBi-uwo ow 'in5IBq di lo si di isiiqqs oT . woi) 'idia1 di lo n&rnv cfi lo naiq nrfi iom i rfairlw &O. i (a 1dET lo I woi m) irIiom bnB

(II woi) cw idiom iJ lo onrxv cii ilnil iom1n bnB (01

Page 23: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

1Bnoinnito eibuia i1 i fqmi nibn1i or1T 'n1bIid3 3rIi no tafi3 i3etib

ernoni 10 sw 'ano2 bn 21diâ1 nwid noitB13no3 eth AooI Iqmi2 tsth 'ii1wp3ni

3111 01 S3n9uflni '18thom 3th lo tiq niiudhiia 'd l3ffts1 3111 'to i33fl3 13311b 3111 3iEi13vo

ol flu13131ni 021fi i ii 3mo3ni (II noiiE15flo3 niIdi no 31L11E1311I 1Brirt&t2du silt nviD

0 3311!1SVO3 ssw sth ot noiiudhtno3 Istot '2tnslEq silT sw ni1di2 ni 831ThrtSVO3 8111 18 )LOOl

2101381 sw nildi .osw '2lslltold'Io 83fl8f18V03 lstoi sthlo 1113313q io 8QO. 21 2lsrltoid

ssw '2tnsi8q silt b s3nstIoqmi silT '2isthold iii snshsvo3 sdfbo tns3lsq io1 111110338

.aliEq 1312i2-lsrbold bits iisq istia iol 181 imf2 sis 2101381 ssw 'nildie bits 2101381

(d skliT) riuoH S.ffl

ni bituol nsmow gnuo' bits nsm nuo idi sitbitsb ssw 1151112 lvits1i silt 10 wsiv iii

lo 2331151EV silt ni sloi flsrn2 £ 'lno s1q 2iot3sl sgsw lstnsisq isilt nithq1ue ion 21 ii ,

I sldsT

eiuodbo s3nshsvoo sth ni bits (ins3lsq I) nsinow w1uo' bits (tnsolsq oisx) nsm nuo(1o aiuoil

nsth siom 8253 on ni) sloi flsm2 'lsvitsIsi s esIq o1s ioiasl ssw 8nildi2 silT ani1di2 lo

isdtsoi alot3sl ssw ni1di2 bits Isrnsisq silt 21sdto1d ioI .2tnsmom sms ssilt ni (tnssisq

1 2nislqxs 101381 3SW lslnsisq silt e1stei2 iOI .2111011 lii 33115 iSV 511110 tns3lsq Ino ni.slqxs

1512i2-isrltold iol bnA .tns3isq 2rtislqxs iotaál 8nuldi2 sth bits sansnEvo3 2111011 sub tns3lsq

.83f18fl5V03 2111011 silt bo tns3isq 11 nislqxs 2135113 ssw arti!di2 bits 'aJnslsq bsnidmos silt isq noitsiisv silt bo (insaisq I) situ! \cIsv nislqxs o215 ssw bo 2iflsnoqmoo 3it513fl'20ibi silT

E !no anisiqxs iot3sI ssw sth nsrn ieblo ioI .nsmow nuo bits nsrn nuo'bo 2luorl silt ni

nmow nuo bnn nin uio dlodlo w di n 1oi31 aidM rfi1o !oi iuil di ioI noiiana1qx nO gmI 3uli lo UO3d ir1io1 lo IIBuD iifiom lo 1C1iqS3 (IfliffiJil rlJ b iiianrri tB1U33B a d 'tam isi aw jfj Jaifi

.iAiam xodol adi 10 abiaiuo 'i1v 38 vii3ubo1q ax aIq namow afoi

1!siinajdu baa idJoid1o nthmvo3 uJor! arfi JomiJithnu 1JdiI 1,bom 3d1 lao balnioq ad bluork II . baa 13xfJo1d noowiad 33ffBIBVO3 1uor! r1i iamiIi3vo fabomu anT .iali b anshavoo iuorI anti aiamiiaiabnu

.awcri nfJnin baa 41111 lii1 anti ni baa nmuIo3 5xaqmoD .rali

Page 24: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

bsniflIqx3 noiiflhflv 2luorflo in31q V nivt ( nmuf 03 OI woi) oonflhflv ewod iidi'to inaiq

W ioauI r1 iii noilflulflv nrnow oluiErn io1 18vewoH .

3fl3115Iq 113th ni noitflhsv sd

-ioi1 3rli t331131 2ifIT .( nmuIo3 I I woi) 21uo11 iii noirhflv di rn3313q ôí &iisfqx3

.n3fnow 3lLJtEfII idI 3ite!3

rru3rroqmi fIB tBm aiorofl't 83n913't31g iuod rliIdi2 bnfl IsrI3iEq 3rlt bnBr! i9tho 9di nO

3f11 rh 233f1313Thb is1 31B 313dt iud ani!die 'to aiuorl sth ni 33f1EflSv03 3rLt o noirndhtrio3

23udnino3 U 1o13s't 33n313't31q 'al3diit 3111 .a3Iam1 bnfl fsm io't 233fl3Uftf1i 1Bffi3lBq

3B edi iA .iuor1 ieii 'to inen3q kio iud iuod '2ledioid ni O3flSIBV03 erfi 'to ineaieq

iuod 'ieii--ier1ro-id io 'iethoid ethIo enon I1siinee io't lnuoa3E 233n31e'telq isr1torn emii

aioi3áI IBinelsq edi noiiBrIidmo3 iii .33nsnEvo3 iuod 'e1eii2 'to ineaieq 8V iud e3rIBrIBvOo

niLdi edT .'218±old erli io't nEdi 3aflBflSvOO 21uor1 t2 erli 'to (bUm 2E emii 331(11 io't tflUO33S

edi'to ine3leq EV O3flBhiBv03 2luofl 1312i2-ierIiOld eth'to rne3leq ô(? &iislqxs 1013fl't 33n313'teiq

.'21e1ie 8th 'to tne3lsq O s1no iud '213f1iO1d

3Iui3eq--Iebne 1Ehimi wod nemow nuo bnfl nem grwo'to aeafIBnBv iuor! erIT

io't ieflBm e3n8i3't31q 'isdiorri brts nern nuo io't leflEm e3neie'te1q '213ths't eth InO .meflflq

j1Bm i nolisrlBv iuod erli ot noirndilrno3 er1e1e'te1q IEinelsq 3(11 23S3 diod it! .nernow nuo 3(11 oi (NOO.) noiludiiino3 elufo2dE 3111S2 3(11 23)IBm 1013fl't ni1di2 erlT .ine3leq V bnuois

(bUm B svBd nemow anuo 32uB33d lud nem nuos'to bnB riefflow nuo'to iuod eth'to e3nsnflv

'to ine3leq 1no ai noiiudinno3 ir1i (8ôO. wiev QÔQ I.) nem nuo nsth 33flB1EV 21uo11 idid edi ni eoneie"fiib r1i 'to flflq sgml A .nem nuo io't ine3leq VI auiev Ifitol 'nemow nuo' sill

Eff (birfw 1Oi3fl't 3!iB1onaoibr eth molt aemo nem nuo' bnfl nemow 8nuo1o eiuorl'to S3nBnsv

nuo io't (ins3leq V io) OO. 1no bns nsmow nuo' io't (lrteoisq Q8 io) VQI 'to earirtsv

33f1B11flV 8(11 fIt 33f1313't31q '13f1lOffl bnfl 'ier1is't efIl'tO 3l0i 8(11 fit (neflflq 3Ih3sqa lsbne8 edT

Page 25: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

f10itfiIJp3 3n1is1q rtr ru Uti3if1303 311110 fr13nq 3fli33q2-1sbr13 sdi aefl3i arloiii2oqmoasb

I 1dT lo 13flq qol 3111 11 awork

(, IdiT) niirua .ffl iuor1 bris aiolaiuI sw lo 33rtstuoqrni ovi 1s131 &1 b smiie ebivoiq 1dsT

33fl5I5V 3111 01 133q281 diiW .griims lo 33f1Efl5VO3 bns anshsv 3111 o1 iot1 3ar1s1131q

ssw nitdi rii tn13q Q I nisIqx iota1 aw Isinisq 3111 woi) nsm 8flUO lo niins

.33flSflSV 311110 1113313q O 2n!slqx3 101351 35W 31Ifl13fP2O1bi cft bits 1n3313q I anislqx3 iol3áI

.a1o131 sw ol ub i nn iuo noms ruirns81o 33n51 Lv 311110 1n3313q 8 istho1 ILA

bits ni1di2 8rlT .anifns i1 33flEflSV 3111 1o 1r13313q I 3rudrlrnoQ 283n313131q 21uo11 Istn3lsq 3dT

.'13vit3oq231 in3313q I bits 1r13313q nzslqx3 21o1311 33f131&131q 21U0f1 3i1L13fI20ibi 3111

233n31&fflb 33n3ibiq bits 233n518Thb osw b 33nsrloqrni 3visIi 3d1 nmow ruuo' ioI

V 1r13313q II udhno3 21o131 sw 3iia13neoibi bits nildi2 fsnisq 311T .( woi) biovi 2i

bits ruiIdi2 jstn3lsq 3rIT b 3311S 11Ev 3111 lo 4r13313q N b Islol 5 io 1rI3313q bits 1r13313q

3111 lo 1nui3q I bits 1n33iq I fl3313 4 udiiirIo3 2101351 33n313131q 2luorl 3iis13cr2oibr

33f1313131q 21U0f1 2'1311101f1 3111 efl3ffIOW riuo ioT .2fliit1E3 rI3mow flU0' fl 33fl5fl5V aflifIiEffl3l

.33it5fl5V03 2nurns3 '2131212 3rItlo 1n0313q I bits nshBv Isiol orhlo 1113313q enislqxo 1o13s1

11siIn is ir1toid iol bus rim ariuo iol enoitudilrno3 e'l3rllom 3d1 1s11no3 it! ( woi)

sw Isin3-lsq 01 3ub 21 nirns3 '28r111d12 Eli noiIsrtsvo3 31111o tcls3q O tuods 11s13v0

Isin3lsq (alisq 1312i2-l3thold bits l3diold ioI .2101351 sw nildi2 01 1n3313q O1 bits 2101351

233n313191q 'iorhorn iisq iri2 iol itid 21o13s1 anildi2 ol 3vi15131 lIsm2 315 21o13s1 33n31&181q

211u231 2luod bus sw 3111 lo idit ru .ernrns ni 83nsnsvO3 3111 lo 1n3313q Q I 3tudrlInO3

lo 2fI1fflB3 3111 ni 33it5115V03 311110 in13q V isill baIl 01 niehcpu2 Ion 21 ii 3vOds b3iloq3l

Page 26: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

!I0C COIUUPIUtOU 0 IJCIL C9UJJU2

bwwci. A0Jff2IJOW JpJG J SLC anpaiwq LOL JJçgGJ2J9JC LCb0IJ10 ccormr oi bLcxu OL wcELOW cdnoiou @) ic .cuqci.cuicu fpi L00 b [$ + ] ipicp cdcrnj pcu ryc ibbLobuUcJJC JOpOL 2flbbJA LCI)0UC oj 0ffl2 O 19CO IJJG 0W 0j fJJ (JILC CjCC1 0 MUC 00 WJJUJ2 bjci 1]JC iuqTLGc ILCC1

JJJ12 ciou M02 CBCIIpJGq 0 fIG 10110 0J fIG xuqiLGc JUIJnG1JC O M0G OU G0UJ1U2 tApJcp 0bGL0 fJL0fI

dnGapou2 bocq iu pG iiuwqnqiou yi JG iiSc LC uq MOLJ( bLccLcucG oLAonu W€U uq

pu bLoMqG qjcq cwcu o1 w w pc pcjbpi o LCfl1.U o

WGIJ jg JOL AorIIJ MouJcI? uq JOL WflL€ MOWCU

opww LcoirnpjG nucowbcuaGq jpoi. 2nbbJA Gi2!C!i! O 0?Q L' AOflIJ UJGU Ø JOL oqct

JU IJJG LCJ AC !UUflGUCC O pca uq WOJJC12 JJAG OUJC !WI!!ACbbcj EflI4PGLWOLC MC

LCjiAc !wboi.WIJCC °L moqc bLcGLCuc uq MC LC2 tu pc qccuiurnpou °L MOLJC OflL uq

CIOL uJoqcj cxbJ!u2 woa op I.!ou w pc wbf C WOWGUj2 jpc cuq€ qijJcLcucG lu JC

wcpcq lu ucpouj uq iuLcucL!oIrnJ buc1 q OU !POL UJLI(C O11COUJC

JJOflI2 uq CIUJ1IJ2 uq O jWIJA !UJ1JL1PC !U WC2C AUjC MC CPWC ipc woqcj (T2UJ

pi pi bbcL MC nc iwbjc ICOL woqG o GxbjoLG pG OflLCC OAUtIoU

I

cot ou wop€i GgLuiu2 obcL pc jpo nbbjA Lcbou2C o MC2

MC COL cxb1iu i bcccu OLCUJ!U flOMCAGL bcccui JC IUrICUCC opc UJO1JJCL

MC tsclol? mpicp cxbJ!u bccu oi pC /94IJCG IU I.OM JO. EOL WOJCI2 (iu io,i j j ) pc

i flUCLCfJU o io€ ijrn flJG AI4oU Ju GWW2oj}JCL2 i qowiuGq pA pc

CMGU wopci uq qrnjucta (uq to bcLcGu CWCCU WO}JCL2 uq ou2)

IJJOIJCLS2 bLqcLcucc pcoi cxbjiiu LcJ!AcjA Jn.c bcccu oj pc coiuucc ci.uiu

LPCL LC JO qouiuq pA pc btcuq JJCL rnu bLCLccucC coL2 HOMCACL JC

bLcGLGucC pcOL JJJG COA14UCC2 OUJJG C9LIJ1U2 oj OIJ uq EJJOIJJC12 uq qIf1plGL 9uq

jC2 uq OU qrts 10 pc PCL2 MC C1OL MP!IG oujA bcI.CGIU i qn o pc ipGI.

Page 27: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

Iimát 311110 23ii2rito1sd3 d io 213diom ai3d1it d 1hsmhq b33ri3uftrii nmow nuos

oT ctrieiq 311110 3n3l3131q 1qqu2 iodsl briE agw 3111 ol bsth1inu 318 tEnt ifl3mnlOlvfls

32irs 21102 bris 213n1tsI 'to 23mootuo t1-ism iodsl 3111 riwtd noiisI5rIo3 3111 ob tntx3 isniw

'th ob 1n13tx3 isriw ot bnis fl02 3111 110 23(12r13i351Ef13 2'13(1151 3111 'to 133fl3 1331ib s 'to 32usd

1i331ib 113th II3idW 13f110fn1 311110 2311211313515113 3111 2133132 gfIiiEffl 3V11i3t10225 32UE33d 3siiz

nil 23iiilEIfmi2 '1imri1 8n1ofl 315 313111 isrlt bnuI w teiiL 3mo3tuo 13*Ism iodsl 2'1102 3111 33n3uJ1r1i

ot '1hsmiiq 3ub 315 23iiilEEimi2 3n1t bnoa8 .23n1i1 13bn38 8nols run Isdi aiuod *iow

01 232flO231 Iqqu2 iodsl ot usd1 131ft51 2n3-i1iq nil 2noitsl3no3 8riildie bns 15n1011513n138131n11

325313111 2I. oi 2b531 1oiI 3311313131q 2-wolf 2'13disI 3111 111 siani iiniu A flu 231 Bfinfli2

ol 2bs31 lOi3âI 33f1313131q 2111011 2'l3fliOffl 3111 325313111 thu £ 3!iflw 233n313131q 2111011 2'fi02 3(11 111

8rluo'(to 2111011 ui 33IIS1'IEV Istol 3nIfIo inie3l3q xi .283n313't3lq 2luonl 2'loid8usb nil EI3ni E8E.

gnutdi2 3111 rhiw b31sioo2s ai 3fl33-13q V I bus 21Oi3I 33n313131q 15111315q nliiw boisi3o22s 21 113111

231s1 385W tsnft fl3Vi 1111231 tnsrloqrni tIE 21 2fnfT .1113313q E1o Istot £ io'I 1oi3á1 33n1313131q

nm 101 I3borri 'fqqu2 iodsl 1s3iqi 3111 111 231121131351Bfla lsno2l3q b3'n3ado bnis 3fTIO3ffl iodslnon

bns i1rioilA lii O3fI3b1V3 3111 31111W .(ô8I) bvaon3I 33) .2111011 111 3311511EV 311111 '03V niis1qx

t3hsm iodsl iii 2noiiEl3lloa 1ims1 01 3ub 21 rloitsf3TIo3 311110 iisq istIt at23u2 (IQQI) nrtuU

233n1313'131q )I1OW 10 nioiismidI 3111 [Ii Iinns1 3111 to 3101 3111 tdt 1qmi 21111231 1110 2iflIS112flO3

21 33n1srIsV Istoi 3(1110 1n3313q Q iuods 1nio 1131110W 8riUO' i&I .but2 b3!iEi3b 23VI323b

tIE 'd b3misI3 21 '13b(Iisfnl3l 3111 1111w 21ot3á1 3311313131q 8nuIdi2 ii1cj lsin3lsq 1111w b3lsi3os2s

.nm tdI nsdt 1131110W io'1 138151 nI3um 21 tsth t33'fi9 Esubivibni

213111ä1 d '1nsmnq b33n3uIIrti 1131110W aniuo' bus nm gnuo(1o 23151 385W 3111 315 biiñT

3111 01 b3isIølnIu 31.5 isrh 23112 11313515113 81u1d12 110111ffl03 instioqmi won n1riuo1 213fhOm io

3111 tsdl 21 rzoir23up biith 3(11 01 13W2f15 31IT 21ns1sq 3111 '10 23311313'181q 1qqu2 iodsl bns 2385W

213n1torn bris 2131115110 210135'1 385W 3111 01 3v12noq231 3iiup 315 2131d8u5b bus 21102 nftod'1o 2385W

Page 28: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

LC2b0U2

EOL jj Lonb W024 OpG CjJGC4 0MC2 OLJ C91.IJ!LJ2 12 qILCC4 LJJCL 4JJLJ 5JJL0f1jJ pOL 2flbbfA

orn. q6coulboawou2 0pG GLU!U2 AL.WUCC2 qqjc pA cuqc' uq pA G IIJ IG C2C 0M0UJGU

/L1UCC ! qn 40 4JJG M9C LC40I? uq bcLccu4 o pc pont bLcLcLcucc C4OU C0U2CdflCU4EA

cconujq ot pA pc iqio2Aucspc bLçcLGiicG C40L EOL 1}JG W04JJGL2 j biccu °L i'

4JJ6 G9uJ1U oLAonu iowcu (cjiww bcciu) &Ionp jwoa4 9j oupc GCC4

bccuj uq bcl.ccu4 Øu 4p0 O4CL puq 4G poni. bcGLGucG icoi. LC

ThFC 4C40L2 9IJq I? bcLcu4 o p€ Of1t2 bLçci.cucc LC4OI2 2!LIJ1ILIA LOL 0[GL UJGU 4G 4JflLC2

OflL LC2J1J42 40L Aoriu wcu cLuiu iuqic4c jrn g bcLccu4 opc Au4iou 12 qn o pc

bGLccu4 Oj 4JJG C0AL1UCC 64MGGU 4JJGL12 9IJq 20IJ2 Th&C2

mgG2 E°' cxujb1c 44 JC C0AgL!guCc OL4IJG L4JJCL2 uq UJ04JJGL2 MC2 CC0I1U4 TPL

C0LLGf410U2 anp2wupJjA O1CLC241W4C 4C qrLcc4 itI4JflGIiCG 0 L4JJCI2 uq C2bCCi11A UJ04JJCI2 ou

4GU qiLc4JA !U4JflCUCC 4JJC 20U2 Jp0L 1JJLJ(C4 0fl4C01JJC MG 4jU 4JJ4 1U4GLGIJGL410U

GX4GU4 qo 4JJGA L2G GCfl2G 220L44iAG UJ4U 2GJGC42 4JG CJLC4GU21iC2 044JJG UJ04JJGL MJJICp

9JJq 20U2 U2G GCfl2G 09 qn.Gc4 G1JGC4 0JJG 14pGL12 C}rnLC4GU251C2 OIJ 4G 20U ffU 40 hl'JJg4

E!UP 40 Th4 GX4GU4 qoc 4IJC C01.LCj4i0LJ G4MGCU 5G jpoi WLJ(G4 OI14COWG2 044}JGL2

4G 2!PI!U MG C0AgugUCc2 2 4G UJo4pCL2

i24GL-2i24GL' OL pLo4pcL-2124cL) couiqcicq' Ipc jpcL1 mc jC4OL cxbJmi2 4M1cc 9 mncp o

COAgI.WIJCG 04}JC MG2 04 2!Pl!1J '° W54CL M4 4AbG 04 2!PI!U bL (pLoipcL-pLo4pcL

b1.cu4a1 C40L2 xbjviu LOnJJJA 4G awc bGLcGu4G2 ( bGLcGu4 uq bcLccIU) OL4PG

/AC 4C40L JpG U2MGL 40 4G onup dncpou !2 4pc 2ipJiu M&G 4C4OL uq cowpncq

44}JGI. MC C40L !2 2I1P2WIJ4!I!A JLGL (pA 0fl4 0UC-4pLq) 4U 1G AL!4!0U IIJ 4G IJJ01pGL2

np25up9JjA JGL UC4!0U ° 4G 404J ALUCG !U MC U4G iijbi.j pGcitc 5JJG AL141OU 04 WG

MUJJ cocwcicuf 2 G4MGGU WJq 3 LOL 0(11 bLccLLcq 2bGCi4jC4!Ou IPG 4p4pGL12 MG GXb[iIJ2

Page 29: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

111w r&lr so1obodrm bris l3bom iuo Io enoirrimiI lo i3drnun s brrfi1diiI 3vd 3W

wolls or noit3ndI 1qqu2 lodEl 3rlr 3xi1E18n or kI32u sd bluow :11 r2iiI •f131E3231 iSrItILIl 31W31

kftau 3d bluow ri bnoas .omo3ni 1o 'ri1iru 113ni1Em n01b1ic13 Orir no 2r3&fio ow fsrnoisq io1

22013 orsloqlo3rn or bns 2uri2 1rhBm noqu bnoqeb iBdr 2lobom s1qqu2 iodal OtBmii2O or

or rnBrloqmi 2i ri rntioqmi reom 2qsthsq bns biir1T .osw 2'02UOq2 odrIo 2r3fI3 noirurii2du2

111 02 ob or ilu3ifiib 21 ri duoi1t1 rshnm lodEl odr iii noiraqi3itIq-nono moldoiq ocfr 2eolbbs

21UO 2 ff31.12 lobom ioras1

bns iuod osw iii 203rIsilEvo3 noii Io (1 QQ 1) nnuU bits ijpoilA ni 2nibr1fl iuO

"2w131-ni" Io enrniso odr ni 233116116v03 Isilnsi2du2 1o bits 219di131 bits 2lothom noowrod nirnso

2luorf odr nirs1oi 2rtoirsupo obul3ni or loborn eth brrorxs oi ltho2u od bluow ri rsfir 2r23LJ2

2luofI bits 23BW ir1 or bnsd2url 2'nsmow nuo' £ S2 Io 21or31 osw bits 2lOr3áI 33fl319'iOlq

its ibu2 .2rnotsq bits 2r1iIdi2 iod 1o 2n31o131q 2luorf bits osw oilr or 213 113w 213 a33fl3131o1q

10 ri3n38obfI3 edi rsoir or oon od bluow seusDod rlu3ffhb oriup 3d bluow flOi2flOtXO

bluow 3110 nomow boiiismnu bns bohism ioI 2noirsupo sOilirioI s bbs or 310W onoll .osrnsin

.osw bits eiuorf 3mo3r1i1o noi22imenslr 1snoitsiorioiotrii orirlo fobom oiolqmoo £ vd 2qIfl2noiislol 31213d r1i osnsmmIJ2 or sw Iühowoq £ 318 2IObofII lor3sl oliilw llsniI

21Oi313l 33f1313'IOIq 2iuofI bits osw oth 2Oihebnu isriw wonA ot oIi1 bluow 3110 oth iii

nsm 3113 iorfT iltod ni oloi rnsrioqmi 1113 2s1q '1ims1 rsrlr ooitobivo oft novia 11s1uaiflsq

qfff2noirsIol oil r no onob nood 2sf ff3153201 lttil tud noirsrrnth 35WlO 2oibut2 no122s131 olqirlum

.aiuod *iow ban aononoqxo booffblid3 bits aoii2iIOt3slsda firnsl bs'rls2do noowrod

fi lo noiiBmii ru thd noxi3b iuodB bn-1no3 1n w ou&d doum o Ion JnBiloqmi ei ir1i t&Ii lniñi W . auorx &f '!dndoiq iuod os *10w IBubivibni th)idw 01 ir1ioq Bib b noiuIox 3uBo3d iud i1ioits1 Iqqu 10dB!

1o onthiavoo biw onBi-Iv rli b 1cmii iuo no boB B3flBflBVO3 boB oorrnk-xzv iuorf fJ b 31IJBffl 1IJO noib .3on31B1B1q 3UJ21B1

Page 30: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

iodsJ bits 23mo3n1 '1ims1 311i noms 2qfflanoiisb5l" .nnuU .A smodT bits .0 dqo1 ijnot1A .01 -Qô :(1Q1) 1 3imono3 iodsJ ni d3ise51 '.viis15flo e3fflO3iLJO ihsM

diIs3W bits mo3nflo I33iH 9rfT" iIolihJo)1 .t 3rt31usJ bits irI2ssH oimuI .0 i1qo1 ijnotLA (Q1 1doi3O) iqsq b3rI2iIduqnu f"fl1bt1dD bn.s j15q nwbd eknsiT noM bits emiT no

33nsnsVoDo noiismia MMD iii siH 1qrns2 llsm" js2 .M iwJ bits .0 dqo1 iirzoiLA

.(IQQ1) ii2 iiAioW is3!r!33T M3flM "31ui3u1

'to Isniuot ".i!imsT1o 11s1 bits i51 3th bits lsriqsD nsrnuH" .moT IiM bits 2 vi&[) 18)!33H .Q2 -1 :(ô8Q1 s1u1) oM &imono iodaj

nibfjdD nwrd nojsbiioD !snois riiinI r1T" nsmdusT fusq bits .51 313L flSffflff3H

3mo3nI'to 'bur Insq nsairf3iM orli moiI eiIua51 :mo3nI inis1 iidT bits nirnsd ilubA .V1-11 :(OQQI nu1) .oM ÔE dflsW bns 3mo3itI'to wsivs5l ".23Irnsn'(U

31Ut1uM-5Iu5M "n0 oih iii 'aoM" ti1oorb2 I" nsmcfusT .Iusq bits .51 3131 nsnrtd ymono3 Ls3iiIo1'to lsrrujol '3vis!$1 no ssU niU noirioqmo33U

'to 3sD 3dT :noi38b Isnoisqu33O ni an31'fIiU x" woJ nsu bits iuilliA iomsIs1a .Qô-0ô :(181 'isuid1) I :Eô iist2 bits 3irnorIo3TIo w&vsSI ".2loj,sM 3IIoD

bits 1imsT'to fl3 rIT :q)1 uoY nsqmoD 31-IT" sts)I .LJ bits .D onnA sD (1Q1) .0VF. .oM iqsq 8nbhow 518]4 "&IiuoY bsffisvbsaiU no boodiodd8i*I

bits Iims1'to .nolo2 'isD bits nisJ risiodsU nobio0 io51 isM ns1o31oD sM) 08 w3iv3SI oimonoo ns3n3mA ".autsi 3lmono3d a'n3M no bnuo1I3sH tinurnmoD

.ôE-óE :(0Qf

JR Is )1ons1 .D it! ".bnuo1!3sa 1im&flo ifI3 silT" .aA3nsl lsfIqoI2rIdD bits tsM nsioioD .VQI a1ooH isfl :thoY wsM VbssdA ts0 oriW

nirlliW bits 2o13A is'tensiT srno3nl tsnoiIsisnsisInI'to noitudhleiU silT" .A smodT nnuU (EQQI) iiaisvinU swsi isqsq bsdi1duqnu "silims1

xs2 IsnoitsquO nislqx3 ot 'flosilT IsliqsD nsmuH'to siu1i1 silT" .0V-8aE :(81 1smmu) VI e331uo2351 nsrnuH'to Isrriuo'L ".noiissis2

'to Isniuol ".'3v,u s'to ninnisH :3imono3H ni sIsU bits bboM nildi" ,ivX sd3ilhD -V2 :(VQ1 isdotaO) V8 'rnonoa3 1s3iIiIo1

noiIs3ubd 'to IsboM s1qmi ni 2133'113 Iims1" .!!sws .H msilfiW bits .M flsdo5l 1swsH ".eibut oossmslsX bits ninoaiW silt mofi nibni1 :ninisa bits wist2 lsnoiIsqu3aO

.eii -E8 :(81 lu1) t &irnonoiodsJ'to Iniuo1

Page 31: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

jô):XJUJIJJCLUrnU' DAq I 111C0111G jopijiA !U 1}JG flu!cq 2W2 (nuc

!PJ!' C01 JS4!0U2 1OflUJJ OLHcIUJ9LJ (riwwc jôôj): o-ntOOU Y1 COLCOLU JOGL QOLOU rniq DCPOL9P r'- T ounqiuj yIJA2r o

BcAIcM (nuc jô):OjOU GL 11I1UGLCUCLSP0UJ IUCOUJC tI0Pll!A !IJ W fl'! VUJ4CU ECOUOW!C

J3)Eiqqcucc j-poi uq bObflJ!Ou BLOLW O4qJ bbCL JçT4J C0Lb0L!0U (v'i'cpocui jopcL E' 11buAc iuctponcpojq jLUCL oj.oucA uq jwc:

3j (njA jg): g-og. _______________________________boIcpcje OjOUJO1? D!LCLCUCG UJ COll /'OL IuqnLj uq FPOL jçcjioua jçc/Icif

1Ô2Q

AOIflWC j cqicq pA OIGA pciJcri. uq jçrcpq J.4GM oL: EJcAcL- J,Ioup HojJuqbcuc9/cJ opu j-j J'poL nbbjA ojcu: nucA ju uqpooj oj'po Ecouowic2

o cououJic uq ipcj 22nwbpou, ECOUOWC1!C (rijA J2):LO JjJOW'( JjJC 2CU2I1!AIA OU EWb!4C joqcj oji.uGq J/1OUJCU H0flL2 OIJAOLJ(

J08 ______________________ _____________________NOWCUH 1P ECOUOW!C OpG EWitA lorlurni ObO1!iCj ECOUOWA g (2nbbIcuJiu jó):AWCCL CO uq ojowou bocpcJe 1EwLJA I1UJCIU2 !'J Cb!j: E1.U!U o

(6q2) uqpoojc OfOL ECOUOWC2 (Jo2Q)VLJC uq HGCJCWU TP0L 2nbblA o /owcuI u uq A1Lq

HnWJ IçC2OflLCGorIjjiif D'qq uq JLJCjpjUi IUPGL!WUCG uq poi. ribbjA,4 oi.ipcowiu onw1 oi

rAini (cq) P!U8OU DC: 4iOLJj ycqGwAI.C22ppoLpooq: v KGA!GM1. U cocuq flLplJ bOAGI4A ill yIJJGLiC pA q uq '

GUCJ2 CP1.!20bPGL uq fl2U if yAGL 14Jj1c ocwI C0UaGdflCJJCG2 O QLOM1U b u bool.

Page 32: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

0E

Idijw JW th bnB rtoJRmha nRi1t1voD bnB nth,1V dt iol tdumio1 :1 zibnqqA

b i 3t0fl3b i oi&fw Jsubivibni nslo omoatuo rhBrn iodsf brau1bs 3111 3d

io iIm isblo nBmow 1uo nm nuo' IBubivibnibo qr sr11 i 1 1aubivibth br1si 3dT) .1 1ims1 mof! 1 3q'rbo IBubivibni 3i1iqe odi rIitB3ibrn x3bni fIB jbrtB (iffimow 3lutsm

3(10 nsdr 1om ei 913th bnB nmow nuo io nrn anuo ol 1sI91 A n3dw I b933x3 'Bm I x3brn

iuo n3dT .rqil32du2 smir B i x3bni 3(11 (.1imi fI3Vf B moil fiBmow fIUO' 10 IlBifi 8f1UO'

b itq 1im! iol 3ldBnsv rhiw Y 3IdsnBvIo 33fIBflSVO3 9di1o 1orsmir3 tn3mom1o bodbm ai ')IA 3qr

' =1X1Y)voD (SI)

1 t '1 i.

n3dr 1isq 13ri2 idl briE iisq l3drold ioI 32E3 3(11 i S ')l =A (13(1W

2i Y = (1311W lorBrnirae 33flB11SV03 r1r

AAYYM "t'r('DAi r(DAiY = (cDAi DAfOb0D (2I) 'i r jj j i

i lorsmlr2e 33flBI1EVO3 9th Y S (13(1W

b1YM i('i)li r(DAi = ((tDAi(DAioD (M)

r j'j t

noiq i61 Y 3fdsrIBv 3dt ioI lorBmur23 33nshsv rn3mom o borlrsm mO A sq

AyT4 \{r(DAjY r(DAi'? =øi'' (I) r j i

bni Y 31dsi1Bv 3(11 idl IOlEmil2o 33flB11SV03 rn3rnom o bofli3m 3dT

i A 3qi no13q 1O

AY "t'r(DAi r(DAi (i)Ai (DAi'f)v0D (óI) i

Page 33: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

iii rrniIo idmurt ft 31S bris cXyl4 2noiaup vodB 8th uI .18via3qi (of) bui (f) QI) (EI) I) ui r1!fii mu 9th

uI atn3mom 9Iqmz 9th Io 33fli1v rh 1o tmie ito bid tdi3w JW silT

sr! isrns i&hi 23ubo1q22o13 Isubivibrii i&Ir t3âI sth b tf11J033B 8)1St feum 31.10 fflsfft ciiJsmitc 'c1 211ff io1 ff1u0335 sW .i s(1imn1 rbns nitlfiw tnsbnsq8bni sin (01) d8uolrif (1) ui emue

bsfudhfrioa af3ubolqeaol3 1ubivibnibo emue Silt 10 mue 31ff CS 33ftS1SVO3 siqinne IIQSS 11tCC5iqx3

(11) 1) f) ui efsknid rik errnst silt sin i limá1 lsIu3irlnq £ i61 emue silT .i IirnIt d3n3 d isfms) bits erioifqmuees iuo isbnu si1imá1 22Oi3 irisbrisqsbrii sin efsbsid ui ernue silT .( 1) bus

220135 nlsf) noifnl3sqxs its svnrf ('lirns1 isq ataubolqaeol3lo iscimun sgsisva silt sd 3nibivib

1o ioismiie fnSf2iCnO3 £ sfs1urrnoI of 2B3 nsrlf ci II .33115fl5v03 isluairisq silt of Isups (csilirnál

.( 1) iii ioismiic SonsuiEVo3 rl t ibieno s1qmsxs i&I .S3ftSiiSVO3 slqmsc 31ff lo 53flSflSV silt

as (.Y)voD tiiwi 'tam 8110

[,I\I} = (Y)voD

(M'I) {tçjyiiS (()1fY = SlSfIVt

'f j I•1 I

idi bus Y 231 dshsv no anoiisvisedo nuiudiiinoo silim1 tnsisuuib b i3dmun silt ci bus

b3ludhfeib l1s3i1n3bi bus fn8bn8qsbrli en sdtlo lnirlt 'nm snO .'A bus 1 sqsibo eriocisq irlf ivo o noifsf33qxs 3rlT .2811ims1 us iovo noitudhicib s mofI nwnib e1dsnsv mobnsi

b orishsv riiLqmnc 3fffbo iofnrnife3 frlofeieno3 £ miff ewollth II 1Y)voD ci noifudhtaib

ci (,11Y)vo3

[(11Y)voD - = [(11Y)voD)]isV

Page 34: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

T2 rTIJTi)C6Ti

qrCtTpr1T0U 2 p6LICJJUfSE}C 72 ATq OIJJA T W0W613C2 9tG riJqGbGuq6zJ4 MprCp36 b— A5Jfl6 ot 22E 926 013 S 72 L6 f126 o

G2fluJSçGqjbb6IJqp j ot Y q2ci-122Tou 0 IJOM CJJG 2SIXJbTG WOIU6IJC2 SLJ MGtdJC2 MGtGj€ woqe 1452 CCG o 2swbTG WOWGLJC2 MTCJJ 2 qGdtGG2 O tGGqow 2G6s �= (rnJMGdJJcGq WOWGIJç2) 8'LV 3(1UI ot 2dfl9tq Ett0t2= 3210i. GLtOt2 9tG tGboLCeq p3 b9L613çp626240C62:

ill, Till (10T) (T01) nuH' = cJJ2 A + fl E' = TOX M' + 33 H

(OX) VOQQ)H = O A + = TIO A' + 22T H

id Y042) id i-d V081) id (Oe) iàH' = T81 A' + fl = IO8 A' + TOI H'

ip Tp (Oc1) VIeT)H' = O2 A + fl = 1T2T A' + I] H'

rod Hol1t2 EdrlgcTOxJ2 (s): rod E9t13713d2 EdrTSCTOLJ2 (3):

id LOTI) Voo) V002)Q = 22 a = 352 COMA M )= •O2

TP (0u) At (o1') T2 VoT)Q = 8T a = Q = T28

id (oT) (o'O) V183) idA' = A ÷ A + 831 (9 + (f)

(033) VO3) ]-LU 72 ip= 8O A + 28 A' + (9' + (9'

rod Agp6 EdrlSCTov2 (2):

id (oT.) (01e) (oo.X)a = Q = 321 COA(fl' % )= oie

flIP (01o) Tt (oTT) I2 (oT8)a = Td a = Q =

id (ra2) (o81) 72 idfl = -. T8 fl + 3e8 fl + fl + fl.

(o) V032) i2 ip= 512 fl - 008 fl + fl fl

L6t6tGLJCG EdrTgCToIJe (fl:

MI'S *cTwwc.* o; LLS•LUC•' M.a.' flOflI viiq LIJTIJd EdncTouLPT• I

Page 35: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

• 0S.93

Cr00)o3eee

(95) Cr00)o?0e39 --

(13) (5).o1so

(33) (20)0T0

taccoLR5: MflWP6t TV baLQVçpe2a2 aLe cpa ttvccoua o cpa ;acçot woqej bLeqiccoo accipncvpra cpa bwtclcnlat

pnc ate uoç rebotceq pet.•øWTU* aq Maae euq •WTV2 tot cpa atioaa ewjA wewpeL bata ieLe e)ao bLeqccaq pA cpa taccot woqer iu z.pra

awbre eacrwacea ot wowevçe at. qteu tiow vbbexiqTx jap)e2 y iioce coatvcaa o ponta eiiq MUC? POflLC aiq

• 0?3

rrai ——

(]"00)na

(100)0?39O

(rOO)

(couczJneq)

(S8) (12)or1a ooeo

( 9S)—- 0581

twC0A(M 'M ) 0?3S

ID IDcoA(M M ) nae

C0A(MMt)

gpC0A(M M ) O8

c0A(M M )

coA(M .Mt)

9 9cOA(M M ) 10T

9 9c0A(M j )

pwCOA(M M )

coA(b?Mt) .0eo

C0A(MM) 13?T

coA(M M) 0?9s

(0?)00?fl0

( T)00?fl8

• O8

.000

0919

• 1091

•0?8

oe

•133

• 0?9

• OS03?

( re)•011(0)• 01SS1

(• Ta)• 0sae

(•e)•0s8e

(.e)—— 0301

(90)

(?a)09999

(100)•0?91

(J"00)--

(•")• 0S8900

(2)•osaeoo

C •9)•O?039

C11)•0TTS

•01T

MIt

(09)008T9

( i#)ooarø

1WM

BJ6 s: D6COWbO2ttOU O A1tUC6 wuq COITIJC6

lt 1W tIII

M +M +COA(M M )12c

IP iROL itfl

TWfl

it Ia rafi +fl 4OA(fl fl ) fl ra

auçWow EacTwaca1IlIbTe

LeqTccJouacco w°q°r

LacpeL wocv zocar LGIJc2 oTprIug IoqrAqnar LgcpeL oçpet ocar atauça 21P1109 uqrqs1ar

MG accota tetetauca }.accoLa

2OflLC8 O AVLTVVCO

Page 36: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

tvccO.'i: MflWP6L iu beLeucpeBeB BLe cjie tLBCSIOMB o we tBCOL woqer bLeqCciOU gccjpncvpre we b2LcTCIITYL

pnç BLS Hoc LeboLceq peLeS2tJ31139B' Bxiq aeVeB'Buq e,Ip,V2 t0 cp. A2JOfl2 tTTA W6WGL b9112 MBLB BT2O breqcceq p3k we tBCcOL woqej i' PT J2WbTø C?TW2B2 O WOWeIJç2 BLC qLBIW tLOW ybbeuqx J,VJ'e y5' HOCC cpwc COABLTBIJCOB O pOflL2 ?LJ M2VB2' POOLB VIJq

('18)-— 0S3293

('02)

'001015 --

('03) (01)'000191 '000022

('09)-- OOSOSO

(•8)•153921

(COpJneq)

('10)• 001893

(09)'000582

('013

003S8?

('183

'000911

('01)

000910

('09)

•000910

twCOACH H

W WCOA(H R

COA(HHt) '0333

COA(Bu) '0009

VwCOACH 'H ) '0909

COACHHt) 0001

COACH ii ) 1088

V VCOACH H I)

p wCOACH' fl ) 0099

COACHThHt) ooea

COA(HH) '0S29

COA(H 11P.) '0081

• 0180

• J1O

0331

'0099

'0928

'0011

SSIO

'0010

O08O

('01)• O3SOSO

(—'51) (—08)-'001553 -'000318

('88)-- '092920

('9$)• 000118

('00)

'00099S

('OS)

'00099S

('0?)• 000519

C 00)

'000281

('03)

'000281

('00)

'0121S0

C—al)—'000300

('03)

'O9S?89

('55)

'000S2T

C' 01)•012239

('12)'01283$

('00)

000 11?

('01)'000Th?

('01)

'00S100

('01)

0005$8

('51) ('3S)—— '000181 001193 --

('Os) ('09)'000S18 -- '000S18 --

('00) ('00) ('00) ('00)

'00009? '0000S? '000089 '000018

('01) ('00) ('05) ('01)00009? 'OOOOS? '000089 '000018

MTt ,4iW MTt44+C0A(MtM)

C—2'O$)

-'002893

('00)

'001008

('02)

'001008

C 'as)

'008983

C o8)

'001999

(5?)'001989

ntt

('02)•

009910

(05)•009910

C 50)

'009910

('11)'009910

('13)

'009910

('09)• 018131

('193

'018131

(—'S8) ('89)

-'001051 '00S993

C' 8e)

-- 0081?8

('00) ('08)

'000008 '00193?

('00)

'000008 '001932

ntU

(• 98)'101502

('18)050 151

ip iVfl) OL it i t W 12

n +n .ecoA(n •n ) " ip TVEl OL 11

woweuc E2ciWce12ewbTe

Leq1cc1ouLBCOL qe

wowe lacer LeLeucB 21p11u8 Ivg1Aqngr EcP wocpet iocer BLGIJç eTpr1oV IuqTATqnvr

CtBLCXJC6 2CcOL2MVVB BCOLR

2OflLCB at A2LTBLJC

JBpJ6 p: DGcowboHtlTou ot ALTZJC6 vug COALTSI3C62- -cocLJq

Page 37: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

i: nwpet pi bgLeucpe2e JJU tL9CcTOIJa O ppe rvCco woqbr bLeqccoxi wç Tpnc2pr9 bVLcTCnT9L

pnç 910 uoc Lebolceq pOLO•0WTU9 oxiq .(gso oiiq •I2 0L AOT4Ofl2 19WTJ? WeWpeL b9TL2 MOLO 9120 bL6qTceq p) t0C0L W0qO PJ 1VPT6 1'

2owbr cTwc o wowex,çv OLO qLOlW L0LU ybb6Vqx 9T0 VS 400 cpsç COAOLTOUCO2 O JJOflL9 ouq MO62 P0fl12 oiq

(.1?)01911?

(08)•050818

(.53)• 050818

MIt

(0)• 03550

Y01)• 0S901

(31)• 05901

(81)095900 --

(89)•0B1018 --

(18) (19)0I3?(?0) (1)0T3? 039811

12 TMTt+Ml+C0A(MtM ) (1

(0)• 00$$,9

(01)• 005031

('OS)• 00S031

nit

('08)• 009518

(-00)— . 0003?9

(32)• 00398

(00)• 000UO

('0)018198

(19)• orerea

(03)005910 —-

(0)OO395 --

(01) ('OS)•001810 ooeoe

('05) (01)ooiao ooeoe

it 1W t W TI) +1) +C°(fl n ) a

(•11)S93311

(01)• 5198?1

(•59) (15)05S00 ooaae

(1)——

(85)• 088091

(?)osaS3

(9?)01?933

(]"00)001839

C 11)• 0189

(9)• 01a9

tWCOA(E 'E )

WWC0A(E 'E ) 31e1

COA(EtEt) 500S

C0A(E'E) 0991

8wCOA(E E ) 1051

8C0(E 'E ) 135a

88C0A(E E ) •319

COA(E8 E) 0810

OwC0A(E E ) 0893

COA(EThEt) •1091

C0A(EThEP) Sf30

C0A(? 'Ern)

1013

3101

•0800

0091

p008

• 0801

• 09??

r01

533e

(.95)090559

(09)os1S'

Cse)053S*I

(05)• 0093?

(08)0093?

(58)-— '101391

(03)008115 --

(—'05) (—01)001?8

—000?0

(31)—- 03103

(—'03)—- —. 003193

('00) (0)O0103 01130?

('01) (18)00103 01130?

(—0I)—- —'OOIISS

(•09)003532

C 01)00?9I

C 0?)oo?er

(se)109010

(?0)119939

'0923 0901

(0?)011152

(•3)•011152

1WM

C21)S00?1

(15)•0519S8

(00)• 000015

('00)• 000015

fir12p ic'• o

LVPTG C D6cOWbO?tT0xJ O I911C62 COAVLt9UC6- -OIJC11Jfl6q

ejjç E2P1129P012owbTu

jLGcflC0IJ Ucp0L}vcçoL woqe

w0cvT jocV] i,°"c 2TPT1"8 IuqTTq(r IVcpeL I4OçpeL OçO BOLOIJCO TPTTU8 nqiqno

E,LoteLeuce vcçotaM'80 E9C0t2

2OflLCO O 9LT9IJC6

p i(7 0111

Page 38: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

coAgLigucG nJ Jgpç6 V5LJJG qgçg f12G G2G 2çgçT2çTC2 tG WG ci2€q aGuGLgc6

1 M9dG uq GgLLyTIJa pJ qoJJt2

pTgG) 0326qcTcqozJ 1o81 eo ro ao io io 180dG O8 310 3O s8O 2O Q001oä GgLIn-1Ja2 22 8]O 82 TO1oa rnjnj Of1L2 0Q8 1]0 VT2 ..V28 Q' 838joa rJOf1t] MdG O2 O3 —O 031 028 O8 3wgcnt jOWGLJ

O.Gqr1ccroLr TOT 380 0'O 80 110 TO 1801TcJ 2O cO 2O 2O ecro1od GgLIJTLTd2 882 0e1 203 828 8jod uiJr19j OF1L2 3O J38 je XQc VXQ 82TOà POI7LTA Md6 T18 020 —O8 OO TO T8 33OTqG WGL

pTgc} 030 -— -— —- -- -- ——

GqnccoLJ cro ro io 130 1803O IO eO O 3O 380iod G9IJTude O QT 810 88 TO3'

roa uirij pOnt cr81 ..ro 28 rei 821joa JJOflLT? 1WdG OQ O3 —OT 038 oee o raxoriua OWGIJ

pjc o. -- —— —- —- —— ——

Gqrlcgc]-ou 122 00 1O 1O 11O 180aG '52 4O eO .O 330 3O1oa GgtIJTIJd2 82 0QT ve 8'8 882 13 1Oeioa IJIJflJ JJOr132 YQ1 O'3 138 3.21 re e 8211oa jioritjA Md6 112 oe —08? 082 118 12 2AornJ8 W6J

DGA O 2O 1OO2cq rygucTrG2

J.pJG T: anuiwrX ccTcTc

Page 39: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

[JOIIL2

Etxtt](tj)

[nai](-oio)-oo

fttoolCooJ5)ooi

[8xx](o) [it]

(ooo)0138

[oi](3o)•0'O8

MJC2[oJ](c)08Q

[.i]()0f[88831(ijgj)00t

[18008](•3.XOQ)

043

[51oi](•31x)03ô8

[io]('JJ4)ots

ciuiiu [](3o)io

[a](o)[gg](1o)on

[ixJ](no)jox

[5Jo1(5oo8)oi

[Joo3](x)

poraOU

[31](oo)oØØ

[J1(o)00Q0

[](5x8)00Q8

[o3oo](oQo2)00Q1

[1 i3i](oQol)OO3ct

[8003](ooQ)00'tt

[1518](c103o)08J

[IooQ3I(cfJ3J)0Q0

[iit1(083)00Q

[ioo1(313Q)00X

[iats1(3\3)0'tt

[18o3](J5T)051Q

c1Lu!IJ?2

2OIJ

[13Jt3]

(j)IOQO

[io3o1

(J)00à

[J333]

(io)013

[ToQo1

(58)083

[TQQ1

0211

[J3Qmi](Joo)03X3

OfILwopct

[1J2o3]

(io)

J45

MGUJOGL

[x3ot1(io)i io

[i](oo)oi

iuJjuUJOpL

[J881(ro)3J

[iw](x)J3

[112o3]

(8o4Q)

JÔOQ

P0flLJJL

[t](io)

0333

[too1

(,ixo)

01f3

[2oo1

(J8't)

0112

[3oo1

(58)0183

[3t81(ro)Jà2

EtJ](oo)0003

E43o8](5xso)0fl8 (t)0235

[3211](oat5)0II

j.utua[Q41](100)5ôo5

[ctQJO]

(83Q1)Q10](32)03Q2

[23131(3909)1193

1Q41 11

(Q)0Q88

[4330](Jx)0313

GUJ!U2JPCL2 9JJGL

)JOflL2

j1IJCL9UJUJ2

UJOJJL2 UJO11JCL

1101U2

WOGL2

C0Wb0UU O TO B1 EI.U!U82 FO 9J N8G 8C uq fO UUf1J H0nL2LP1G VS cosuuCc (cot jiou) uq [uibj ic] uJou pc bCIU

Page 40: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

p01112

ThOWIJA0nu

[3tt1(i'o)'j

oujøu?onu

[L,xfs](uo)'jj

[Joo3Q]('iog)•0Jo0

CLU!IJmouju?onu

[1xoQ]

(1.0)

3.Q4

[is](s1.)'14tO

[o,x](ro?s)

32

p01112

1JJ1J)onu [](ro)

'Ø3Q

mcWUA01w2

[ts](io)131

[10180](tins)0103

uuiju?onu

[o]U 'o)'5t30

[3OX]('8s)

[moo](53)'03Q

CY1JJIU

IJJgU2?or1u

MSCW1J2)onu

JJOfI12

WSU2?oriu

GgUJ!1J22

M0UJU?onu

M92G2

M0WIJ2Aonu2

0flL2M0UJ9UAonu

0flI2!21L

[lios]

().ot3

2!CL

[tti]('3031)'0f3i

[sI21('0313)0031

uJ!u!CL

[4s.x]('sxx).0O.0

k300l('sxoo).05

[31!](13m8)'03Q

por,12PL01JJGL

[31 ](33o)'0001

[1(-'osoo)-'003!

[221(-ow8)-'0000

[ I ]Coiio)0002

PL01PGL

[J]('Io)'0Q5

[o]('o,xt)'00't

[ii]('3o)0Q80

('ctjo0402

E](-o880)-'01

Luiu2L0}JCL

[oQ]('3?10)

O23

[o]('3Q3s)

0Q8

[i](i.)'0J5.

[iso1('3013)'0281

[1Q1](.o)'OQ

[x,xo](-'oo.x)-'0002

GWiU22

L0jCL2

M2L0PCL2

P°1112

L0jJiGL2

UJ!U!GL

M12G JJOJIL2

2Ly5 (coluiuncq)

Page 41: cwpqqe NV oii - National Bureau of Economic Research...E!uI1 G9uJJu2 qcbcuq nbou MC2 uq p0111.2 !UCC JJC nuqcijAiu ALWJG2 quAJu bLc6Lcuc62 bLCCLCUCC C0L! COIJJIJJOIJ O aippu2 uq U

gbbtobLTgc qr2cLrpnroxJ oiij'A r 2wbG g ruqGbGIJqGuc3 JJJ6 b- AT1-1G tOE CpG 2E qMJ tow g )( 72 pnç 72LP6 woq t.t cc6q o t6Gqow

1= 8 (rnJMGapçGq wowGIJç2) l�W2E= 2T 3f1W O df9L6q EEEOL2= 2881' E6 L6boEcGq •u bLGuçp626

OJ8 7W 7W 7W 7WH' = ccJ2 A' + fl E' = A' + H'

OX T T TH' = 083 A' + fl E' = A + H'

ra (0&) rd Id IdH' = 18 A' + fl E' = M' + H'

0127))

H' = 08 A' + fl E' = A' ÷ H'

roà HOfTE2 EdrTcToIJ2 (s): roa ELIJTUd2 Edrlgclou2 (3):

Td (0T) VOOx) 7 1W (0ox)Q = Q = 3cJ COA(A' A' ) 02

(013) At (011) T2 (o)Q = a2 0 = 0 =

Id (01Q) (048) 1W 12 raA' = Qc A' + T2 A' + 813 C')' + C')'

7)) (o3a) (ofl) 1W 12 1))A' = A' + A' + C')' + C')'

rod gdG EdrlYcTOu2 (2):

Td Vole) t 7W VooB)Q = 20 0 = 3Je COA(fl' fl' ) 012

fiT)) VoT) fl•t V01'fl ,1T2 Vo)0 = 0 = 12 0 = 0Q8

rd ('50) V0a8) 1W 72 rdfl = -. 1Je fl + 3 fl + fl' + fl

7)) Vo8) V0i3) 1W 72 Tfl = 1a3 fl - 008 fl + fl + Fl'

bEGtGLGUCG Edclgcrou2 (.\)

JITCP LTCflO172 01, Mga. VI7 H0flL LWLWS.L TU Ewua EdnC0U$1' *4WSR 0 bL.;.L.17c. 11.a.' H0JTL' IJq Er.1JTIJa Ednc0IJ

vpT• y3