daniel mckennaacd science planning: past, present and future1 national center for atmospheric...

Daniel McKenna ACD Science Planning: Past, Present and Future 1

National Center for Atmospheric Research Atmospheric Chemistry Division

ACD Science Planning.

Past, present and future

Daniel McKenna

NSF onsite panel review

24-26 Oct. 2001


Overview

Strategic Plan 1998-2002– Strengths– Accomplishments– Leverage of Core

Funding Future plans

– Themes– Relationship to previous

Plan

Relationship to other Areas– NCAR Strategic Plan– NSF Geosciences– International Activities

• IGBP-IGAC• WCRP-SPARC


ACD Mission

ScientificTo understand the composition of the atmosphere, the processes that modify and control atmospheric composition, and how they may change in time due to natural and human induced changes.

SocietalTo provide relevant, reliable, accessible, unbiased, and timely information on atmospheric chemistry to government and society

CommunityTo act as an intellectual resource and enabler to the wider atmospheric sciences community.

EducationTo play a significant role in the training of the next generation of atmospheric scientists

Science Plan.

Participation in Assessments.WMO Ozone, IPCC

Field Campaigns, Workshops, Intercomparisons, Community Models, and Instruments.

Provide a range of training opportunities for young scientists


Science Planning Chronology

Previous NSF Review 1995/1996– Troposphere, Middle Atmosphere and Climate

ACD retreats 1996,1997– Strategic Plan developed

ACD 1998-2002 Strategic Plan Published 1998– 6 key issues

Implementation 1998-2002– Many accomplishments.

New Science Planning Activity 2001-2002– 5 themes

Publish New Plan for 2002-2005 2002


ACD Strategic Plan 1998-2002:Key Issues

Stratospheric Ozone

and UV-B

Chemistry-Climate Interactions

Atmospheric Trace Gases

Tropospheric Photooxidants

Biogeochemical Cycles

Aerosol

GlobalTroposphericChemistry

ChemistryClimateInteractions

Middle AtmosphereResearch


Strategic Plan

Strengths Science Plan

– Goals & Themes– Priority Setting– Advisory Board

Interdivisional Collaboration– STERAO, WACCM, HANK,

MOZART, MIRAGE, BGSI

UT/LS

Community Service– Workshops– Field Campaigns– Intercomparisons– Community Models &

Instrumentation

Societal Contribution– Participation in

Assessments– International & National

Agenda Setting

Education & Outreach– Visitor Programs– Post Docs and Students– SOARS


Division Strengths

Instrumentation– In situ, remote & community


Instrumentation

HO2, HO2+RO2 CIMS

HO, H2SO4, MSA, DMSO CIMS

HO, H2SO4, MSA, HNO3 CIMS

NOx, NOy, O3 CL

PAN, PPN, MPAN, GC-ECD

PiBN, APAN Alcohols & Carbonyls GC-MS Fast Isoprene Sensor CL

Fast Dimethyl Sulfide (DMS) CL CO, N2O TDL

Formaldehyde TDL Multiple: CFCs, HCFC, Whole Air

HFC, CH4, C2-C5 alkanes, Sampler

C1-C2 chlorocarbons, halons, (WAS,

methyl halides, Br,Cl-methanes, GCMS)

alkyl nitrates

Total Actinic Flux Radiometers Actinic Flux

Scanning Spectroradiometers

Trace Gas Tethered Balloon Air Sampling Package

Trace Gas Cartridge Sampler FLUXTRON Plant Chamber

Multiple FTIR:

– N2O, NO, NO2,HNO3, CO, O3, CFC-11, CFC-12, HCl, HF,HCN, COS, SO2, CH4, C2H6


Community Instrumentation & Support

Ozone, CO, CO2,H2O

– NSF Deployments• ACE Asia• INDOEX• DYCOMS II• EPIC

– Enhancement of Biogeoscience Capabilities

Support with Specialist Instrumentation– Radiometers for

PROPHET– HNO3 Mass Spectrometer

(Cal. Tech.)

– VOC Cal. Facility• EPA Grant, 2000

Frequently Requested Composition Measurements


Division Strengths


Field Campaigns

–Airborne and ground based


Successful NSF core fundingActivities

NOMHICE 1994-2000 EXPRESSO 1996 STERAO 1996 ISCAT 1998, 2000 TOPSE 2000 PROPHET 2000, 2001 WACCM 1999- IPMMI 1998-2001

MOZART (also significant external funds)


Gunther et al.


TOPSE

250

200

150

100

50

0

Ozo

ne

(p

pb

v)

250200150100CO_TDL (ppbv)

Stratospheric Source

Surface Ozone Depletion

Asian Plume (?)

Marine Influence

European Surface Source(?)

Ozone_CO Relationship during TOPSE (color by NOy)

Atlas &TOPSE Team


PROPHET

Shetter et al.


Successful non-NSF fundedActivities

TOTE/VOTE(1995/1996) SONEX(1997) PSE (1998) SOS(1999) ACCENT (1999) PEM-TROPICS B (1999) SUCCESS(1999) SOLVE(2000) TRACE-P (2001) TexAQS (2000)

UARS Analysis

NDSC

MOPITT

NARSTO (1996-2000)

LBA

SAFARI

Ameriflux


MOPITT

Terra Detection of Montana Fires

MODIS Aug. 23 2000

True-color image of smoke & burn scars over Montana. Fire

pixels from 3.75 µm channel (Rong Rong Li)

MOPITT Aug. 22-27 2000Continental total CO column.Elevated levels over Montana

J.F Lamarque


Gunther et al.


Division Strengths


Field Campaigns– Airborne and ground based

Laboratory & Chamber Studies

–Gas Phase, Heterogeneous & Plant Chamber Studies


Lab. Capabilities

Techniques – FTIR/Photoreactor

• 220K-Ambient

– Flash Photolysis / TDL– UV Absorption Spectrometry– SICIMS methods– Proton Transfer MS– Flow Tubes

• Nucleation, Uptake, Solubility

• Flow Tube/MS Organic Studies

Visitors (1998-2001)– Junior Faculty 4

• Paulson, Rudich, Longfellow, Bilde

– Post Docs 4/ 3 ASP– Students 6

Intradivision Collaboration– Kinetic Data of New Species– PTRMS for Field Studies– Prep. & Cal. of Standards– Evaluation of MOZART &

HANK Chemical Schemes


Critical Cluster Analysis

Hanson & Eisele

350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850

0

10

20

30

40

with NH3nH2SO4 vs +pNH3 +HNO3 vs + HNO3 w/o NH3

4(H2SO4)p(NH3)

5(H2SO4)p(NH3)

6(H2SO4)p(NH3)

7(H2SO4)p(NH3)

3(H2SO4)2(NH3).HNO3


Division Strengths



Laboratory & Chamber Studies– Gas Phase, Heterogeneous & Plant Chamber Studies

Community Models

–Global, regional and process


Community ModelsACD based efforts TUV, Master Mechanism GLOBEIS SOCRATES IMAGES WACCM (ACD, CGD, HAO) HANK (ACD, MMM)Community Based Efforts MOZART (ACD, CGD) WRF-Chem. (ACD, MMM) Future Earth System Transport and Climate Models

(ESTM & ESM). (ACD, CGD)


MOZART-3, Preliminary ResultsUsing WACCM Meteorological Fields

Kinnison et al.


Division Strengths




Community Models– Global, regional and process

Intercomparisons

–NOMHICE, IPMMI

Critical Mass of Expertise and Capabilities

–Nucleus for field campaigns


Division Strengths




Intercomparisons– NOMHICE, IPMMI,


Critical Mass of Expertise and Capabilities– Nucleus for field campaigns

Strong Links to Other Divisions


Interdivisional Collaboration

Advanced Study Program(ASP):

– Geophysical Turbulence

– Post Docs and Affiliate Scientist

Atmospheric Technology Division(ATD):

– Community Instrumentation

– Instrument Development

– Aircraft Payloads C130

– Deployments Climate & Global Dynamics

Division(CGD):

– Aerosol Parameterizations

– Radiative Transfer

– Atmospheric Transport Schemes (MOZART)

Environmental & Societal Impacts Group(ESIG): – Societal Impact of Air Chemistry– Impact of Society on Air

Composition High Altitude Observatory(HAO):

– Middle Atmosphere Modeling– Radiative Transfer– WACCM

Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology(MMM): – Mesoscale Chemical Modeling– Field Campaigns

Scientific Computing Division(SCD):– Numerical Simulation


Division Strengths




Intercomparisons– NOMHICE, IPMMI,


Critical Mass of Expertise and Capabilities– Nucleus for field campaigns

Strong Links to Other Divisions

Strong Links to the University Community


US-University Collaborators

– Christopher Newport – CU-Denver– CU-Boulder – Cal. Tech.– Drexel– Georgia Tech.– Hawaii – Harvard– Iowa State – Illinois, Urbana – Johns Hopkins – Maryland – Maryland Baltimore

County

– Miami – Michigan – Central Michigan– Western Michigan– Minnesota – MIT– Montana – New Hampshire– New Mexico– North Carolina – North Dakota– Ohio – Pennsylvania– Philadelphia – Purdue – Princeton

– Redlands– Rhode Island – Rutgers– SUNY– Texas Technical– Texas Austin – UC-Irvine– UC-Berkeley – Virginia – Washington– Washington State– Wisconsin


Non-US University Collaborators

– Toronto

– York

– Guelph

– Sao Paulo

– Buenos Aires

– Copenhagen

– Utrecht

– Leuven

– Paris 6

– Provence

– Blaise Pascal

– Savoie

– Nagoya

– Thessalonik

– Sheffield

– Lancaster

– Leicester

– Oxford

– Aberystwyth

– Cambridge

– East Anglia

– Tsing-Hua

– National Taiwan

– Beijing

– Munich

– FU Berlin

– Bremen


Leverage of NSF funds

Access to platforms at minimal cost to NSF– DC-8– P3(2) – ER-2 – WB-57 – Terra(MOPITT) – Aura(HIRDLS)

Development of division capabilities

–Airborne

Mass Spectrometers

H2CO TDL

PAN

Multi Spectral Radiometers

Fast GC-MS for

Carbonyls & Alcohols

–MOZART Development

–Lab. TDL

–Ultra fine Aerosol Composition

External funding for activity aligned with NSF/ NCAR/ Division Goals


Status of new Science Plan. Quo Vadis?

Stage 1: February 2001. Formation of core team to develop framework science plan.

Core Team Membership:Atlas, Eisele, Garcia, Guenther, Madronich,

McKenna, Randel, Ridley. Outcome:

Identification of Framework Themes & definition of leadership for thematic working groups.


May-October,2001 development

Megacity Impacts on Regional and Global Environment. MIRaGE– Cantrell, Flocke, Madronich

Reactive Carbon Research Initiative.– Atlas, Eisele, Guenther

Biosphere-Chemistry-Climate Interactions.– Hess, Kinnison, Smith

Lower Stratosphere/Upper Troposphere.– Randel, Ridley, Schauffler

Clouds: Transporters & Transformers– Barth, Tie , Weinheimer


ACD Strategic Plan 1998-2002:Key Issues

Stratospheric Ozone

and UV-B





Aerosol

GlobalTroposphericChemistry

ChemistryClimateInteractions



ACD New Strategic Plans

Previous Future

Stratospheric Ozone

and UV-B





Aerosol

TroposphericChemistry

Biosphere-ChemistryClimateInteractions


MIRAGE

Reactive Carbon

Biosphere-Chemistry-

Climate Interactions

Lower Stratosphere/Upper

Troposphere

Clouds : Transporters & Transformers


Relation to NCAR Strategic Plan

ProjectsThemes

Integrating Interdisciplinary Scientific Initiatives

Integrating Chemistry Climate Connections

A Biogeo-sciences Initiative

Advancing the Science of Weather and Climate Impact Assessment

Understanding Sun-Earth Connections and Planetary Atmospheres

Water CycleAcrossscales

Advancing Weather and Climate Research and Prediction

Applying the Benefits of the IT Revolution Across Research and Education

A Knowledge Environment for the Geosciences

Enhanced Capabilities for Data Management and Sharing

A Common Modeling Infrastructure for Earth System Science

A “World-Class Web” Presence for the Web

Advancing Tools and Methods

Data Assimilation Initiative

Remote Sensing Initiative

A Geographic Information Systems Initiative

Integrating Models

A First-Generation Earth System Model

A Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model

Proposed New Facilities Initiatives

Supercomputing for the ESM Era

AnAtmospheric Observing System

Integrating Research and Education

Please refer to the E&O Strategic Plan

Funda-mental Issues in geo-Turbulence

Main ConnectionsSecondary ConnectionsSignificant Developments


Interdivisional Collaboration

ASP: – Geophysical Turbulence– Post Docs and Affiliate

Scientists– Wildfire Initiative

ATD: – Community Instruments– Aircraft Payloads C130,

HIAPER– Deployments

CGD: – Earth System Modeling– Biogeochemistry– Aerosol Parameterizations– Radiative Transfer– Transport Schemes

ESIG: – Societal Impact of Air

Chemistry– Impact of society on air

composition– MIRAGE

HAO: – Middle Atmosphere Modeling

– Radiative Transfer– WACCM

MMM: – Regional Chemical Modeling– WRF-Chem.

SCD– Numerical Simulation– ARCS


Relationship to NCAR Divisions and other Organizations


NSF GPRA Strategic Plan FY 2001-2006

‘Develop Intellectual Capital’– ‘...enhance

individual and collective capacity to perform…’

‘Identify and support “unmet opportunities”…’– ‘...the people and

tools are available to do the work, but a greater NSF investment now will have a very large future payoff…’

People, Tools, Ideas

– Models – Field studies– Workshops– Training

–MIRAGE (C130)

–Reactive Carbon (C130)

–ESTM (ARCS)

–UT/LS Initiative (HIAPER)

–Clouds:T&T (HIAPER,C130)


NSF GPRA Strategic Plan FY 2001-2006

‘Additional investments may revolutionize our ability to understand and predict nonlinear geophysical systems, such as climate changes and their impacts on the environment... ‘

Recruiting new talent, inviting scientists in allied fields to “look across the fence,” training new investigators to work in new areas will produce better results.

– Biogeosciences Initiative.

– Earth System Transport Models

– Biosphere-Chemistry- Climate Interactions

– Scientist I Appointments

– Collaboration with other Disciplines


NSF GEOSCIENCES BEYOND 2000

Objectives: Fostering discovery and understanding of the factors that define and

influence the Earth’s environmental and planetary processes. Expanding understanding and predictability of the complex,

interactive processes that:

1. determine variability in the past, present and future states of planet Earth;

2. control the origin and current status of the forms of life on the planet; and

3. affect the interdependencies of society and planetary processes. Providing the resulting scientific information in forms useful to

society.

Understanding and Predicting Earth'sEnvironment and Habitability



Objectives: Fostering discovery and understanding of

the factors that define and influence the Earth’s environmental and planetary processes.

Expanding understanding and predictability of the complex, interactive processes that:

1. determine variability in the past, present and future states of planet Earth;

2. control the origin and current status of the forms of life on the planet; and

3. affect the interdependencies of society and planetary processes.

Providing the resulting scientific information in forms useful to society.

Understanding and Predicting Earth'sEnvironment and Habitability

Field Observations of basic processes

Photochemical Processes

Snow Chemistry

Biogenic Fluxes

Biomass Burning

Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange

Model studies, MOZART, WACCM, ESM

Joint Studies with ESIG, MIRAGE

WMO and IPCC assessments,

Peer reviewed publications,

ACD Textbook, Seminars



Fundamental Areas:

– planetary structure – planetary energetics – planetary ecology – planetary metabolism.


Relationship to WCRP SPARC* Initiatives

Stratospheric Indicators of Climate Change• Participation in all areas by Bill Randel

– stratospheric temperature trends– understanding ozone trends– stratospheric and upper tropospheric water vapor

• Andrew Gettelman chapter chairman for WV report. Stratospheric Processes and their relation to Climate.

– gravity wave processes– UTLS processes

• SOLVE, UT/LS Initiative , HIAPER

– Penetration of UV radiation into the lower stratosphere and troposphere• TUV

Modelling Stratospheric Effects on Climate– Intercomparison of stratospheric models

• WACCM, MOZART-3

– Stratospheric reference climatology• Chairman: Bill Randel

– Stratospheric data assimilation• HIRDLS

*John Gille is ex-officio member of SPARC (representing COSPAR)


Future IGAC Themes

1. Atmospheric chemistry-climate interactions– MOZART, ESTM, CCSM, WACCM

2. Developing a global measurement strategy…..; integrating remote & in situ measurements and models.

– MOPITT+Assim., MOZART, WRF-Chem., Reactive Carbon Research Initiative, MIRAGE

3. Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)– MIRAGE, Reactive Carbon Research Initiative, MOZART, ESTM

4. Multiphase atmospheric chemistry/ Aerosol-cloud interactions– Lab. Studies, Clouds:T&T, MIRAGE, Reactive Carbon Research Initiative

5. Stratosphere-troposphere interactions.– UT/LS Initiative, WACCM

6. Trace gas budgets and exchange with biosphere/ocean/land– Biogeoscience, Reactive Carbon, MIRAGE

Ideas developed at the IGAC conference in Italy and the IGAC Integration and Synthesis Meeting in Aspen.

To be discussed at a January 2002 meeting in Stockholm


Overview of talks

Tropospheric Chemistry– TOPSE: Tropospheric Ozone Production About the Spring Equinox– HANK: ACD’s Regional Chemistry-Transport Model– ACD Contributions to the NASA TRACE-P Campaign– MIRAGE: Megacity Impacts on the Regional And Global Environment– Reactive Carbon Research Initiative – MOPITT: The MOPITT Experiment on Terra

Middle Atmosphere Research

– HIRDLS: The High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder – UT/LS Research Initiative– WACCM: Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

Biosphere-Chemistry-Climate– Biosphere-Atmosphere Trace Gas Exchange– The Biogeoscience and Wildfire Initiatives– MOZART and future global tropospheric modeling in ACD.

daniel mckennaacd science planning: past, present and future1 national center for atmospheric...

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