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Fjernvarmen fremmod 2050

Professor MSO Marie MünsterDTU MAN, Energy System Analyse

2

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Vejen frem

1. Effektivitet i bygninger og net2. Fleksibilitet via lagring3. Grøn fjernvarmeproduktion

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Grøn fjernvarmeproduktion• Grønt brændsel

– Biomasse– Grøn gas– Affald

• Vedvarende energi– Varmepumper– Luft, jord/ grundvand, havvand, – Solvarme– Geotermi

• Overskudsvarme– Datacentre– Industri– Bioraffinaderier– Spildevand

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Samfundsøkonomiske Scenarier

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Same starting point in 2020

Late Sprint (EU goals)2030 compared to 2005:- 43% (ETS)- 39% (non-ETS)

MarathonCO22030 compared to 1990- 70% CO2

Marathon- 77% CO2 (reflects less

reduction in nonCO2)

Early SprintStaying within 375 Mio t.CO2 budget

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS

2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Pow

er P

rodu

ctio

n [T

Wh]

Offshore Wind

Onshore wind

Solar PV

Electric batteries

Hydro

Woodpellet steam turbine

Woodchip steam turbine

Straw steam turbine

Municipal solid wasteturbineGas turbine

Gas engine

Lightoil turbine

Lightoil engine

Fueloil engine

Coal steam turbine

Elproduktion

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Fjernvarmeproduktion

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS

2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Dist

rict H

eatin

g Pr

oduc

tion

[TW

h]

Woodpellet steam turbine

Woodchip steam turbine

Straw steam turbine

Solar thermal

Geothermal heat

Gas turbine

Gas engine

Hybrid heat pump

Electric heat pump

Coal steam turbine

Excess heat

Municiple solid wasteturbine

• Mindre biomasse• Mange varmepumper• Stor udnyttelse af

overskudsvarme• Hybridvarmepumper i

Late Sprint

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Lavere udnyttelse af overskudsvarme…?

• Scenarier– Base (Marathon scenarie)– 50% udnyttelse af overskudsvarme– Ingen udnyttelse af overskudsvarme

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Mindre overskudsvarme…?

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Base

Half

exce

ss h

eat

No

exce

ss h

eat

Base

Half

exce

ss h

eat

No

exce

ss h

eat

Base

Half

exce

ss h

eat

No

exce

ss h

eat

Base

Half

exce

ss h

eat

No

exce

ss h

eat

Base

Half

exce

ss h

eat

No

exce

ss h

eat

2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Dist

rict H

eatin

g Pr

oduc

tion

[TW

h]

Electric boiler

Woodpellet steam turbine

Woodchip steam turbine

Straw steam turbine

Solar thermal

Geothermal heat

Gas turbine

Gas engine

Hybrid heat pump

Electric heat pump

Coal steam turbine

Excess heat

Municiple solid wasteturbine

• Flere varmepumper

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Grøn fjernvarmeproduktion• Grønt brændsel

– Biomasse– Grøn gas– Affald

• Vedvarende energi– Varmepumper– Luft, jord/ grundvand, havvand, – Solvarme– Geotermi

• Overskudsvarme– Datacentre– Industri– Bioraffinaderier– Spildevand

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Import af affald

13.12.201911

DTUDate Title13 Dece

Amalia Pizarro

Fortsat import af affald?

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Konklusion• Det kan samfundsøkonomisk betale sig at importere affald i dag og fremover• Det er i de fleste tilfælde fint set fra et klimamæssigt perspektiv i dag, men bliver ikke ved

med at være det, så vi skal ikke bygge overkapacitet• Afgørende faktorer er den alternative behandling af affald og hvilken energi der evt.

fortrænges• Transport er mindre afgørende

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Environmental system scope

13.12.201915

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Scenarios

Dk energy system

Waste quality

Transport mode

Transport distance

Alt. waste man.

Alt. el. prod.

Biomass marginal

450 x 4 scenarios

13.12.201916

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Average net GHG balanceImporting 0.3 Mt/a (2014)

13.12.201917

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Average net GHG emissions 2035 HighElec, importing 0.5 Mt/a(Marginal el. abroad - biomass marginal)

13.12.201918

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Conclusion - environmental impact

• Mixed combustible waste may pollute future clean energy systems (but better use with CHP)

• The energy displaced, HighElec or LowElec, has a higher impact in the balance than the quality of the imported waste, i.e. high or low LHV

• Sustainability of displaced biomass also plays a role (although minor)• Leaving the waste at engineered landfills may be the best option (counting

Cbio sink)• Other environmental impacts should also be analysed

So - Is there a climate benefit of importing waste? Today, yes. In 2035, rarely.• Basically don't plan for future import of waste for climate reasons• Only import waste if 1) the alternative waste management will be at a

sanitary landfill or if 2) local incineration would displace green electricity

13.12.201919

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Kommentarer eller spørgsmål?• Marie Münster• maem@dtu.dk

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