de kwetsbaarheid van ons klimaat - wur · klimaat maarten krol meteorologie en luchtkwaliteit (maq)...
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De kwetsbaarheid van ons
klimaatMaarten Krol
Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit (MAQ)
1967
1967
Count the days into years
his eighty two brings many fears
Yesterday's laughter turned to tears
his arms and legs don't feel so strong
his heart is weak, there's something wrong
Opens windows in despair
tries to breathe in some fresh air
his conscience cries: "Get on your feet.
without you, Jack, the town can't eat".
Keith West - Excerpt from a teenage opera
Count the days into years
his eighty two brings many fears
Yesterday's laughter turned to tears
his arms and legs don't feel so strong
his heart is weak, there's something wrong
Opens windows in despair
tries to breathe in some fresh air
his conscience cries: "Get on your feet.
without you, Jack, the town can't eat".
Keith West - Excerpt from a teenage opera
RIVM rapport 500037004 / 2004
Jaaroverzicht luchtkwaliteit 2002
Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle
Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities,averaged globally for the decade 2006–2015 (GtCO2/yr)
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
31%11.6 GtCO2/yr
Fate of anthropogenic
CO2 emissions (2006-
2015)
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
26%9.7 GtCO2/yr
34.1 GtCO2/yr
91%
9%3.5 GtCO2/yr
16.4 GtCO2/yr
44%
Sources = Sinks
Global carbon budget
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870
Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
Global carbon budget
The carbon sources from fossil fuels, industry, and land use change emissions are balanced by the atmosphere and carbon sinks on land and in the ocean
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
Partitioning of total CO2 emissions
Atmospheric CO2 growth rate was a record high in 2015 in spite of no growth in fossil fuel and industry emissions because of a weaker CO2 sink on land from hot & dry El Niño conditions
The emissions (shown in black) include fossil fuels and industry and land-use changeSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
• Verhoogde CO2 concentratie (fertilisatie): 70%
• Stikstof-bemesting: 9%
• Klimaatverandering (b.v. temperatuur): 8%
• Landgebruik-verandering: 4%
Wat verklaart een groenere aarde?
• Problemen met de atmosfeer-samenstelling kunnen
aangepakt worden (gat in de ozonlaag,
luchtvervuiling)
• Je kunt dus positief zijn over “kansen” van
klimaatverandering en “technische oplossingen” (CO2
opslag, “negatieve” emissies). Wageningen expertise!!
• Zolang de broeikas-concentraties toenemen, neemt
de klimaat-forcering toe (fysisch principe)
• De groeicurve van CO2 biedt weinig reden tot
optimisme…dus actie is geboden!
Afsluiting: persoonlijke visie