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www.oeko.de Decarbonisation of road transport Comparison of technical options including electric road systems Moritz Mottschall/ CEDR Workshop Groß Dölln, 14.03.2016

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Decarbonisation of road transport

Comparison of technical options

including electric road systems

Moritz Mottschall/

CEDR Workshop

Groß Dölln, 14.03.2016

Hinweis zum Bildtausch:

Bild mit der Maus markieren, dann

rechte Maustaste drücken und „Bild

ändern“ wählen. Neues Bild auf dem

Laufwerk auswählen und einfügen.

Es wird nun an der Stelle des

vorhandenen Bildes eingefügt und

kann/muss dann noch etwas in der

Größe verändert werden.

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Our Profile

Oeko-Institut is a leading European research and consultancy

institute working for a sustainable future.

● A non-profit association founded in

1977

● Offices in Freiburg, Darmstadt and

Berlin

● Clients: European Union, national and

state-level ministries, companies,

foundations and non-governmental

organizations

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Background

● Ambitious climate protection goals: Reduction of GHG-emissions in

Germany (80% to 95% until 2050)

‒ Emission “budget” is used in agriculture and industrial processes.

Full decarbonisation of the transport sector is needed.

● Long term forecasts show increasing demand of road freight

transport

● Limited potential of energy efficiency of conventional trucks

‒ Technical measures: e.g. improved aerodynamics, increased engine

efficiency, hybridization

‒ Management: e.g. speed reduction, reduction of empty trips, increased

utilization

Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016

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CO2-emissions of the transport sector until 2050

Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016

● +xx %

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

dir

ekte

CO

2-E

mis

sio

nen

in

Mio

. To

nn

en

restlicher Verkehr Leichte Nutzfahrzeuge

LKW 3.5-7.5 Tonnen LKW 7.5-12 Tonnen

LKW > 12 Tonnen Sattelzug

+18 %

Source: Scenario results of the TEMPS-Modell. Transport demand based on „Verkehrsprognose 2030“,

-30 % fuel consumption of new Trucks in 2050

light commercial vehicles

trucks 7.5 – 12t

articulated lorry 40t

rest of transport sector

trucks 3.5 – 7.5t

trucks > 12t

dir

ect

CO

2-e

mis

sio

ns

in

mil

lio

n t

per

ye

ar

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Alternatives to fossil fuels in road transport:

Carbon neutral fuels (Biofuels/ PtL)

● Advantages:

‒ well known vehicle technology

and use of existing infrastructure

‒ safety

● Disadvantages:

‒ air pollutant emissions

‒ low engine efficiency, energy losses in fuel

production

‒ limited potential of biomass and competition with

food production (biofuels)

‒ CO2-source needed

‒ competition with other modes of transport: high

demand for liquid fuels in aviation and navigation

Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016 Picture: www.flickr.com/photos/greenron/ license: (CC BY 2.0)

Right picture: www.flickr.com/photos/s-ariga/ license: (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Left picture: www.flickr.com/photos/alendjuderija/ license: (CC BY-ND 2.0)

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Alternatives to fossil fuels in road transport:

Hydrogen (PtG) in fuel cell vehicle

● Advantages:

‒ No air pollutant emissions

‒ Efficiency above ICEV

‒ No CO2-source is needed

● Disadvantages:

‒ High vehicle costs (fuel cell stack and H2-storage)

‒ Energy losses due to electrolysis and liquefaction

‒ Safety might be an issue

Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016 Picture: www.flickr.com/photos/pixelfreestyle/ license: (CC BY-ND 2.0)

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Alternatives to fossil fuels in road transport:

Direct use of electricity

● Advantages:

‒ high engine efficiency

‒ Direct use of renewable energy possible

‒ No air pollutant emissions

● Disadvantages:

Battery only electric vehicles:

‒ not feasible for long haul transport (Electric driving range of 500 km

requires an 8t battery)

Electric Road Systems (e.g. overhead catenary):

‒ Increased vehicle costs (pantograph, hybrid drivetrain) and infrastructure

costs

‒ New infrastructure components might increase the vulnerability

Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016

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Energy efficiency of trucks in 2050

by vehicle concepts and type of fuel

Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

En

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MJ

/km

)

PtX energy conversion loss -worst case

PtX energy conversion loss -best case

Tank to Wheel

2010 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

En

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MJ

/km

)

PtX energy conversion loss -best case

Tank to Wheel

2010 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

En

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MJ

/km

)

2010 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

En

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MJ/k

m)

PtX energy conversion loss -worst case

PtX energy conversion loss -best case

Tank to Wheel

2010 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

En

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MJ

/km

)

electricity transmission loss

PtX energy conversion loss -worst case

PtX energy conversion loss -best case

Tank to Wheel

2010 2050

-30% -55%

3.6 MJ = 1kWh

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Study: “Determining an expert strategy for the energy

supply of the transport sector up to 2050”

• Comparison of the costs of different energy scenarios and

options for a greenhouse-gas-neutral transport sector in

2050.

• Scope: Road- and rail transport, navigation and aviation

• 4 different energy scenarios

• Calculation of the economic costs of:

• energy supply

• energy infrastructure

• vehicles

Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016 Work in progress!

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Economic costs of carbon neutral long haul road

freight transport in Germany until 2050

Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016

Ac

cu

mu

tla

ted

co

sts

(2020 –

205

0)

in b

illio

n €

(co

mp

are

d t

o f

oss

il f

uels

)

ICEV (PtL)

OH-ERS

LNG (PtG)

FCEV (PtG)

energy

supply

energy

infrastructure

vehicles total costs

Source: “Determining an expert strategy for the energy supply of the transport sector up to 2050”; work in progress!

preliminary results!

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Summary

● The decarbonisation of the transport sector is necessary.

● Possible options include the use of carbon neutral fuels (biofuels, PtX)

and the direct use of electricity in electric road systems.

● The total economic costs of an overhead-line-ERS are below other

options of decarbonisation.

● Advantages of conductive electric road systems:

‒ High energy efficiency

‒ (local) reduction of air pollutant emissions

● Challenges of electric road systems:

‒ International solutions are necessary.

‒ New infrastructure components may increase the vulnerability of the road

system.

Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016

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Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016

Contact

Moritz Mottschall

Öko-Institut e.V.

Office Berlin

Schickler Str. 5-7

10179 Berlin

phone: +49 30 405085-377

email: [email protected]

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Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!

Thank you for your attention!

Haben Sie noch Fragen?

Do you have any questions? ?