decarbonisation of road transport...disadvantages: ‒ air pollutant emissions ‒ low engine...
TRANSCRIPT
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Decarbonisation of road transport
Comparison of technical options
including electric road systems
Moritz Mottschall/
CEDR Workshop
Groß Dölln, 14.03.2016
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Laufwerk auswählen und einfügen.
Es wird nun an der Stelle des
vorhandenen Bildes eingefügt und
kann/muss dann noch etwas in der
Größe verändert werden.
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Our Profile
Oeko-Institut is a leading European research and consultancy
institute working for a sustainable future.
● A non-profit association founded in
1977
● Offices in Freiburg, Darmstadt and
Berlin
● Clients: European Union, national and
state-level ministries, companies,
foundations and non-governmental
organizations
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Background
● Ambitious climate protection goals: Reduction of GHG-emissions in
Germany (80% to 95% until 2050)
‒ Emission “budget” is used in agriculture and industrial processes.
Full decarbonisation of the transport sector is needed.
● Long term forecasts show increasing demand of road freight
transport
● Limited potential of energy efficiency of conventional trucks
‒ Technical measures: e.g. improved aerodynamics, increased engine
efficiency, hybridization
‒ Management: e.g. speed reduction, reduction of empty trips, increased
utilization
Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016
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CO2-emissions of the transport sector until 2050
Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016
● +xx %
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
dir
ekte
CO
2-E
mis
sio
nen
in
Mio
. To
nn
en
restlicher Verkehr Leichte Nutzfahrzeuge
LKW 3.5-7.5 Tonnen LKW 7.5-12 Tonnen
LKW > 12 Tonnen Sattelzug
+18 %
Source: Scenario results of the TEMPS-Modell. Transport demand based on „Verkehrsprognose 2030“,
-30 % fuel consumption of new Trucks in 2050
light commercial vehicles
trucks 7.5 – 12t
articulated lorry 40t
rest of transport sector
trucks 3.5 – 7.5t
trucks > 12t
dir
ect
CO
2-e
mis
sio
ns
in
mil
lio
n t
per
ye
ar
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Alternatives to fossil fuels in road transport:
Carbon neutral fuels (Biofuels/ PtL)
● Advantages:
‒ well known vehicle technology
and use of existing infrastructure
‒ safety
● Disadvantages:
‒ air pollutant emissions
‒ low engine efficiency, energy losses in fuel
production
‒ limited potential of biomass and competition with
food production (biofuels)
‒ CO2-source needed
‒ competition with other modes of transport: high
demand for liquid fuels in aviation and navigation
Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016 Picture: www.flickr.com/photos/greenron/ license: (CC BY 2.0)
Right picture: www.flickr.com/photos/s-ariga/ license: (CC BY-ND 2.0)
Left picture: www.flickr.com/photos/alendjuderija/ license: (CC BY-ND 2.0)
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Alternatives to fossil fuels in road transport:
Hydrogen (PtG) in fuel cell vehicle
● Advantages:
‒ No air pollutant emissions
‒ Efficiency above ICEV
‒ No CO2-source is needed
● Disadvantages:
‒ High vehicle costs (fuel cell stack and H2-storage)
‒ Energy losses due to electrolysis and liquefaction
‒ Safety might be an issue
Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016 Picture: www.flickr.com/photos/pixelfreestyle/ license: (CC BY-ND 2.0)
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Alternatives to fossil fuels in road transport:
Direct use of electricity
● Advantages:
‒ high engine efficiency
‒ Direct use of renewable energy possible
‒ No air pollutant emissions
● Disadvantages:
Battery only electric vehicles:
‒ not feasible for long haul transport (Electric driving range of 500 km
requires an 8t battery)
Electric Road Systems (e.g. overhead catenary):
‒ Increased vehicle costs (pantograph, hybrid drivetrain) and infrastructure
costs
‒ New infrastructure components might increase the vulnerability
Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016
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Energy efficiency of trucks in 2050
by vehicle concepts and type of fuel
Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
MJ
/km
)
PtX energy conversion loss -worst case
PtX energy conversion loss -best case
Tank to Wheel
2010 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
MJ
/km
)
PtX energy conversion loss -best case
Tank to Wheel
2010 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
MJ
/km
)
2010 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
MJ/k
m)
PtX energy conversion loss -worst case
PtX energy conversion loss -best case
Tank to Wheel
2010 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
En
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
MJ
/km
)
electricity transmission loss
PtX energy conversion loss -worst case
PtX energy conversion loss -best case
Tank to Wheel
2010 2050
-30% -55%
3.6 MJ = 1kWh
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Study: “Determining an expert strategy for the energy
supply of the transport sector up to 2050”
• Comparison of the costs of different energy scenarios and
options for a greenhouse-gas-neutral transport sector in
2050.
• Scope: Road- and rail transport, navigation and aviation
• 4 different energy scenarios
• Calculation of the economic costs of:
• energy supply
• energy infrastructure
• vehicles
Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016 Work in progress!
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Economic costs of carbon neutral long haul road
freight transport in Germany until 2050
Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016
Ac
cu
mu
tla
ted
co
sts
(2020 –
205
0)
in b
illio
n €
(co
mp
are
d t
o f
oss
il f
uels
)
ICEV (PtL)
OH-ERS
LNG (PtG)
FCEV (PtG)
energy
supply
energy
infrastructure
vehicles total costs
Source: “Determining an expert strategy for the energy supply of the transport sector up to 2050”; work in progress!
preliminary results!
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Summary
● The decarbonisation of the transport sector is necessary.
● Possible options include the use of carbon neutral fuels (biofuels, PtX)
and the direct use of electricity in electric road systems.
● The total economic costs of an overhead-line-ERS are below other
options of decarbonisation.
● Advantages of conductive electric road systems:
‒ High energy efficiency
‒ (local) reduction of air pollutant emissions
● Challenges of electric road systems:
‒ International solutions are necessary.
‒ New infrastructure components may increase the vulnerability of the road
system.
Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016
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Decarbonisation of road transport│Moritz Mottschall│Groß Dölln│14.03.2016
Contact
Moritz Mottschall
Öko-Institut e.V.
Office Berlin
Schickler Str. 5-7
10179 Berlin
phone: +49 30 405085-377
email: [email protected]