Decision and experience:why don't we choose what makes us happy

Author : Christopher K. Hsee and Reid HastieSource : Trends in Cognitive SciencesVolume 10, Issue 1, January 2006, Pages 31-37 指導教授：戴敏育老師報告者 : 淡江大學資訊管理系碩士班 吳至偉 698630497日期： 2011/10/21

outline Introduction Failures to predict future experience

accurately Failures to follow predictions Summary

Introduction

Fundamental assumption of classic economic theory People are able to identify and choose what is

best for them Are people really able to choose what is

best for them? Recent findings from behavioral-decision

research People are not always able to choose what

yields the greatest happiness or best experience

Failures to predict future experience accurately

Behavioral-decision researchers have identified several systematic biases Impact bias Projection bias Distinction bias Memory bias Belief bias

Impact bias

People often overestimate the impact of an affective event

One cause of this impact bias is focalism predictors pay too much attention to the

central event and overlook context events Another cause of impact bias is immune

neglect after an emotion-evoking event happens,

people tend to rationalize or make sense of it

Projection bias

People making predictions and people experiencing are often in different arousal states

Projection bias occurs not only when experiencers are others

Projection bias can lead to choices that one will regret

Distinction bias

Distinction bias occurs because predictors and experiencers are in different evaluation modes(single or joint-evaluation)

Distinction bias can also lead to non-optimal choices

Memory bias

Predictions of future experiences are often based on memories of related past experiences memory is fallible and introduces

systematic biases into evaluations A classic experiment by Kahneman and

co-authors

Belief bias

A guide of hedonic forecasts is people’s lay theories of what makes them happy or unhappy

One common belief is more choice options are always better

Failures to follow predictions

Decision- makers need to act on their predictions

Decision- makers variously choose the option that has these characters Impulsivity rule-based choice lay rationalism medium maximization

Impulsivity

A major cause of sub-optimal decisions is impulsivity

The choice of an immediately gratifying option at the cost of long-term happiness overeating, avoiding medical exams,

taking drugs, and squandering savings

Rule-based decisions

Decision-makers sometimes base their choices on rules for good behavior rather than predicted experience

Some examples of decision rules seek variety don’t waste

Lay rationalism

Decision-makers strive to be rational the desire for rationality can lead to less

rational decisions Three specific manifestations of lay

rationalism lay economism lay scientism lay functionalism

Medium maximization

Often when people exert effort to obtain a desired outcome, the immediate reward they receive is not the outcome itself, but a medium

people work harder and harder to accumulate more and more wealth, but are not in fact happier

Summary

For decades, behavioral-decision researchers have studied inconsistencies in choices, demonstrating

In recent years, decision researchers have studied directly when decisions are sub-optimal two general reasons for the failure

prediction biases failures to follow predictions

Summary

Many social policies(free choice of health providers, retirement plans)are built upon the assumptions that people know their own preferences and that what people choose must be in their best interests

The behavioral-decision-research findings we have reviewed here cast doubt on these assumptions

Decision and experience:why don't we choose what makes us happy

報告者 : 淡江大學資訊管理系碩士班吳至偉 698630497

Q&A