demographic goals_kbatucal_v4
TRANSCRIPT
WhatisthefocusoftheOutlookReport?
Part1:GlobalMonitoringPart
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Part2:Thema:cPart
Examinesglobaldevelopmentprogressandtheunfinishedagenda.
ExamineshowthedemographicchangecanbeCltedinfavorofthedevelopmentgoals.
MillenniumDevelopmentGoals
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Source:[email protected]
• AdoptedSeptember2000attheUNheadquartersinNY.• Eight-boundtargetswithadeadlineof2015• Specificallyfordevelopingcountries
Howdidwegettowherewearenow?
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Incidenceofpreventablediseaseshasfallen(AIDS,malaria,andtuberculosis)(MDG6).
Source:[email protected]
Source:[email protected]
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• TheworldmetMDGtargetofhalvingtheglobalpovertyratein2010,fiveyearsaheadofschedule.(MDG1).
• ExtremepovertyhasconCnueditsdecades-longdescent.
Source:[email protected]
DevelopmentprogressovertheMDGperiod(2000-2015)hasbeenimpressive.
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MDGswerenot100%successful.
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• TheworldmetMDGtargetofhalvingtheglobalpovertyratein2010,fiveyearsaheadofschedule.(MDG1).
• ExtremepovertyhasconCnueditsdecades-longdescent.
Source:[email protected]
PovertysCllremainsunacceptablyhigh.900millionextremelypoorpeoplein2012.
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EastAsiaandthePacificsawadeclineintheirextremepovertyrate,butSub-SaharanAfricadidnot.
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Non-incomeMDGsawmoremixedsuccesses,andperformedunevenlyacrosscountriesandregions.
Source:[email protected]
• WhileaccesstoprimaryschooleducaConandliteraryracesimproved,qualityofeducaConremainsaconcern.
• 1/5thofallchildrenunderfiveremainsundernourished.
• 3/5ofHIVpaCentslackaccesstoanCretroviraldrugs.
• Tuberculosiskilled1.5millionpeoplein2013.
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TheSDGwilldrivetheunfinishedagendaoftheMDGs.
SustainableDevelopmentGoals
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Terms
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• 2000-2015• Developingcountries
• 8Goals• 21targets• 60indicators
MDG
• 2015-2030• Allcountries• 17Goals• 169targets• 304indicators• Heightenedfocusonenvironmentalissues
SDG
WorldBankGoals
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WorldBank’sgoalstoendextremepovertyandpromotesharedprosperityalignstothe2030agendaforsustainabledevelopment.
Worldisexperiencingvarious
megatrends
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Source:[email protected];[email protected];[email protected]
WhatisthefocusoftheOutlookReport?
Part1:GlobalMonitoringPart• MDGperiodwasimpressive• MDGwasn’t100%successful;significant
workremains.• SDGswilldrivetheMDGs’unfinished
agenda.
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Part2:Thema:cPart
ExamineshowthedemographicchangecanbeCltedinfavorofthedevelopmentgoals.
***Developmentprogresshasacceleratedthedemographictransi:oninmanycountries,especiallyofdevelopingcountries.****
Whatistheupcomingdemographicchange?
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Source:1953–[email protected]
• Since1950,totalferClityratedeclinedfrom5birthsperwomento2.45birthsperwomenin2015.
• Lifeexpectancyrosefrom47yearsin1950to72in2015.• Infantmortalityhasdeclined.
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PopulaConSize&AgeStructure
MigraCon
MortalityFerClity
Improvementsinhealth
GenderEquality
EducaCon
EconomicGrowth
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• Theworking-ageshareroseandpopulaConsstartedtoagerapidly.
• FerClityrateshadfallendramaCcallyinmanydevelopingregions.
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• Sub-SaharanistheexcepConamongdevelopingregions.• HighferClityandmortalityrates.Lowlifeexpectances.• ConCnuanceofHIV/AIDSslowingprogress.
Other93%
Sub-SaharanAfrica7%
1950s
Other86%
Sub-SaharanAfrica14%
2015
Other75%
Sub-SaharanAfrica25%
2050
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Source:[email protected]
• UrbanizaConisrisingfastindevelopingcountries.• By2030,around2billionpeoplewillbelivinginslums.
Demographicchangemayalterthetrajectoryof
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Theworldcanbedividedinto4categories.
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Asfer'lityratesdecline,countriescanunlocktheopportunityfortwotypesofdemographicdividend(LeeandMason2006)
Thetwodividendsthusrepresentanopportunity–andnotaguaranteeofgreaterprosperityand
improvedlivingstandards
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Pre-Dividend
• FerClityratemorethan4births• Laginkeyhumandevelopmentindicators
• MostlyinSub-SaharanAfrica
Early-dividend
• FerClityratelessthan4births• Working-ageshareinthepopulaConlikelytoriseconsiderablyinthefuture.
• Bangladesh&India
SparkdemographictransiCon.
AcceleratejobCreaCon.
PolicyPrioriCes
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Late-Dividend
• Shrinkingworking-ageshares• FerClityrateisgreaterthan2.1births.• Rapidaginginthecomingdecades.• Ex:China
Post-dividend
• Highsharesofelderly• FerClityrateislessthan2.1births.• Shrinkingworking-agepopulaCon.• Ex:MostlyNorthAmerica
SustainproducCvitygrowth.
AdapCngtoaging.
PolicyPrioriCes
Unlockingthefirstandseconddividend
enhancesthedevelopmentgoals.
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• Mustcapturedemographicdividends• Policiesmustrecognizeandrespondtodemographic
changeatthecountrylevel.• Improvingthequalityoflifeofthepeoplelivinginslums.• Thefirstandseconddemographicdividendarebeneficial
totheWorldBank’sgoalsofpovertyreducConandsharedprosperity.
• Toaccelerateprogress,theSDGscanlearnfromtheMDGs.
• GovernmentsandstakeholdersshouldinvestintappingintothesmartdatarevoluContoensuresoundmonitoringfortheSDGs.
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RecommendaCons
ThankYou
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