Department of Political Science

In the Grip of Climate Change:The Circumpolar Dimension

Rob Huebert CIC FellowRhuebert@ucalgary.ca

Calgary, Canada

2030NorthOttawa June 2, 2009

Main Themes• The Canadian Arctic is in a state of massive

transformation through Climate Change• Perception/Reality of Increased Assessiblity• Impact on Canadian

– Domestic– Circumpolar– International

• Potential for new tensions/insecurities; but could also create new opportunities

• What should Canada do?

Transforming Northern Society

• Youngest Population in Canada– Impact of Globalization/Communications

• Evolution of Traditional Culture

• New Actors in Canadian North

• Climate Change and Society– Weather– Hunting

The Face of Northern Leadership

Movement of Ice Sept 2007-April 2008

Source: Canadian Ice Service

Climate Change and Economics

• Land Based Resource Production– Increased challenges: melting permafrost

• Marine Based Resource Production• Fishing

– New stock– New International pressures

• Marine Transportation– New entries– Safety, Security, Sustainable, Sovereignty

Oil and GasOil and Gas: Resources of the North

Source: AMAP

US Geological Survey Arctic 2008

• To determine the sources of traditional energy supplies

• No consideration of non-traditional energy– E.g. gas hydrates

• Main Findings

• 30% of undiscovered Natural Gas in Arctic

• 13% of undiscovered Oil in Arctic

New Oil and Gas Activity –North America

• Exxon/Mobil, Imperial - Cdn Beaufort Sea/Mackenzie Delta: $585 million five years 2008-2013

• BP – Cdn Beaufort Sea/Mackenzie Delta: $1.2 billion

• Continued Debate over Gas Pipelines

1st Arctic Shuttle Tanker

Source: Samsung Heavy Industries

Proposed Arctic LNG

Source: Samsung

Heavy Industries

Gas Hydrates

Mallik Gas Hydrate Test – Mackenzie Delta 2002

(Source USGS)

New Interests in Arctic

• Chinese interest in Polar Science, Resource sources and Transportation

• Japanese funding of Canadian research in Gas Hydrates

• South Korean Polar Ship Building– Samsung; Daewoo

• EU Arctic Policy

Chinese Arctic Interest

Xue Long in Antarctica

-1st Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 1999

-2nd Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 2003

-3rd Arctic Voyage Summer 2008

•Was not detected by Canada until arriving in Tuk

Northern Governance – (where to Draw Borders and who gets to do what within

them)• Devolution• Unilateral Action

– Existing Rules are Sufficient – Illussat May 2008

• Regional– Role of Arctic Council– New Regional Agreement

• International– Inclusion of non-Arctic States eg EU

Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arctic

www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic

Canadian Effort for Article 76

Natural Resources Canada

Russian 1st Claim - Article 76

New Geopolitics of the North• Russia

– Renewed Assertiveness– Petrodollars

• United States– Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act– International Role as remaining Superpower

• Norway– Refocus on North– Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia

• Denmark– Issues with Greenland – social; energy

• Iceland– Economic melt-down

• Canada– Re-examining its Arctic capabilities– Renewed Assertiveness

Renewed Russian Strengths

• 1990’s Period of Extreme Reduction

• 2000’s Renewal

• Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007-2015

• 6 SSBN 995 Borey

• 2 SSN 885 Yasen

• 6 Diesel 677 Lada

Yury Dolgoruky

Russian Surface Fleet Return to Arctic Waters

Marshal Ustinov

Severomosk

Summer 2008

US Arctic Forces• Submarine Forces:

• US – Seawolf and Los Angles Class; (Virginia Class?)

• Cooperation with UK

• ICETEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN

- Missile Development

Missile Defence – Ft. Greely

USS Honolulu 2003 HMS Tireless 2007 after accident

Norwegian Developments

• Fridtjof Nansen class - 5– Aegis system

• Purchase 48 F-35 JSF Aircraft Nov 2008

Roald Amundsen and Admiral Kuznetsov 2008

Source: RNoAF

Canadian Security Actions

• New Military Operations since 2002• 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels• Nanisivik Refueling Facility• Resolute Bay Training Facility• Increased Rangers Patrols• Northern Watch• Throne Speech Oct 2007

– Northern Strategy (Sovereignty/Security)

Canadian Defence Actions (cont.)

• Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker

• June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy (Harper White Paper)• Focus on Arctic Security

• Postponement (Cancelation?) of Joint Support Vessels

• Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic - Nordreg

Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel

Be capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans

Be first year ice capable in the Arctic

Contribute to maritime domn awareness

Support other departments, agencies and ocean research

Have a gun armament for constabulary missions

• “Be capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans• Be first year ice capable in the Arctic• Contribute to maritime domain awareness• Support other departments, agencies and ocean research• Have a gun armament for constabulary missions “ - DND

Source JTFN

Conclusion

• Climate Change is Transforming the Arctic

• New Perceptions/Realities of Accessibility

• Fair

• Safe

• Secure

• Sustainable