D E S A R R O L L O D E L C L I E N T E

E N T R E P R E N E U R S H I P M B A

E L R E T O D E L S PA G H E T T I

E L R E T O D E L A E M PAT Í A

S E R I O U S P L AY C O N L E G O

S Curve – Proposed model for dynamics of technological change

Performance

Effort

Physical limit?

Performance is ultimately constrainedby physical limits

E.g.:Sailing ships & the power of the windCopper wire & transmission capabilitySemiconductors & the speed of the electron

Foster’s S Curve

Pattern:Initially increasing then declining R&D productivity within a given physical “architecture”

The S-Curve

All it says is: things are going very, very slow in the beginning, the pace quickens in the middle, and then decelerates in the end. That’s all it says. It’s a tool for thinking where you are strategically, it’s a tool for asking questions, like ”what performance measure should I plot?” It is not a magic forecasting tool.

Evolution of the Disposable Diaper highlights Dynamics of Technology S-Curve

Polypropylene Composite fiber

PolyacrylatePolyethylene

The 1960s – Vic Mills’ Pampers

The 1940s – Marion Donovan’s “The Boater”

The 1980s – Harper & HarmonSuper-Absorpent The 2000s – Another 60% smaller

Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

The Millsian (Absorbent core) diaper faced significant technological hurdles due to the tradeoff between size and absorbency...

Donovan Pampers - Mills Fluff etc.R&D Effort

AbsorptionCapacity(How many timesdiaper can hold itsinitial weight?

Physical limits Benefits of greater absorbency were at odds with massive increases in size –cost of size on the “shelf” and on the “body” were both important limitations to this approach

Issues in using S Curves to analyze technological dynamics

z Progress as a result of the passage of time vs. progress as the result of returns to effort

z Do all good things come to an end?z Which parameter(s) shall I predict? z What level of aggregation – firm or industryz What level of analysis – component vs. system v. process

The S curve is best viewed as a tool for triggering discussion, not as a “scientific reality”

Technology S-Curve in practice….the pharmaceutical industry

z Using the S-Curve perspective to analyze the so-called “productivity crisis” in the pharmaceutical industry

Fewer new drugs approved...

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... despite higher costs

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D AT O S

When to switch curves?Which curve to switch to?

Performance

Effort

Understanding market dynamics:Basic segmentation (Rogers)

CumulativeAdoption

Time

Innovators

EarlyAdopters

EarlyMajority

LateMajority

Laggards

Different categories of adopters differ by, for example,social, economic status -- particularly resources, affinity for risk,knowledge, interest in the product

Focus on Front EndUnderstanding the discovery process for opportunities

Searchz Relative differences in

the costs & benefits of search (Stiglitz 1994)

z Lead some entrepreneurs to search and find opportunities more than others

Recognitionz Can’t search because by

definition opportunities are unknown until discovered (Kirzner1997)

z Entrepreneurs vary in the degree to which their prior knowledge triggers opportunity recognition

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L E A F M U S I C

W E E S H I N G

M A P E O D E N E G O C I O S

L E A N S TA R T U P V S D E S I G N T H I N K I N G

L E A N S TA R T U P V S D E S I G N T H I N K I N G

FA C T I B I L I D A D , V I A B I L I D A D Y D E S A R R O L L O

E N T R E P R E N E U R S H I P M B A

M AT R I Z D E FA C T I B I L I D A DC A S O : M AY R A

S C A M P E R

R E T O D E L O S 6 S O M B R E R O SE VA L U A C I Ó N D E L P R O Y E C T O

Amarillo= Optimismo: beneficios y valor de la idea. Verde= Creatividad: posibilidad.Negro= Negatividad: dificultades y peligros. Blanco= Pureza: hechos e información conocida. Rojo= Sentimientos y emociones. Azul= Orden: quien guía la actividad.

I N B O U N D M A R K E T I N GS O C I A L M E D I A

D E L P R O Y E C T O E L E G I D OB U S I N E S S M O D E L C A N VA S

A D O , M K T Y V E N TA SP L A N E A R

PA U G A S O LC A S O D E E S T U D I O