Review and outlook for the Nickel Market

Zhiqiang Ding

2016.5.25

伦镍长期走势——进入底部波动区间 Long term trend of nickel price

2007.5.9

Bottom range of fluctuations Global easing

stimulus

Indonesia Ban

伦镍的周期性 Periodicity of nickel price

-1.000

-0.500

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

Jan

-91

Jun

-91

No

v-9

1

Ap

r-9

2

Se

p-9

2

Fe

b-9

3

Jul-

93

De

c-9

3

Ma

y-9

4

Oc

t-9

4

Ma

r-9

5

Au

g-9

5

Jan

-96

Jun

-96

No

v-9

6

Ap

r-9

7

Se

p-9

7

Fe

b-9

8

Jul-

98

De

c-9

8

Ma

y-9

9

Oc

t-9

9

Ma

r-0

0

Au

g-0

0

Jan

-01

Jun

-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-0

2

Se

p-0

2

Fe

b-0

3

Jul-

03

De

c-0

3

Ma

y-0

4

Oc

t-0

4

Ma

r-0

5

Au

g-0

5

Jan

-06

Jun

-06

No

v-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Jul-

08

De

c-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Oc

t-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Jul-

13

De

c-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Jan

-16

YOY 6 per. Mov. Avg. (YOY)

伦镍的季节性 The seasonal nature of nickel price

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MoM AVERAGE

数据来源:Wind资讯

LME Nickel Price(3M) GDP QoQ(右轴)

96-12-31 98-12-31 00-12-31 02-12-31 04-12-31 06-12-31 08-12-31 10-12-31 12-12-31 14-12-3196-12-31

7000

14000

21000

28000

35000

42000

49000

美元/吨美元/吨

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15%%

LME镍与中国经济 LME nickel price and China's economy

>10%

8-9%

7.5%

6.5-7%

数据来源:Wind资讯

M1 YoY M2 YoY CPI YoY(右轴) PPI YoY(右轴)

86-12 91-12 96-12 01-12 06-12 11-1286-12

0 0

5 5

10 10

15 15

20 20

25 25

30 30

35 35

40 40% %% %

-10-10

-5-5

00

55

1010

1515

2020

2525

%% %%

中国货币与通胀周期 Chinese currency and inflation cycle

2014年1月印尼禁矿改变了全球镍供需格局 Indonesia export ban is changing the global nickel supply and demand

1791 1899 2215 1675 1444 2245 2640 2526 3259 3704 4394

9027 10592 10437

17566

40792

48449

64803

4160

0

49 41 41

36

53

37

24

39 33 30

61

21

56

70 80 79 77

68

84

182

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Export volume of nickel ore Export volume of Ferronickel

Kt

Indonesian nickel exports in the form of ferronickel instead of nickel ore

印尼镍产品出口额大幅缩减 Indonesia's exports of nickel products significantly reduced

But the added value of export products remain high

43 38 27 19 42 55 51 60 108

140

217

608

524

278

532

1428 1489

1685

86

0

72 60 40 43 94

46 28 69 68 83

292

111

369

243

374

470

337

232 292

330

62

72 77

107

61

51

62

76

63

74

97

78

133 131

154

170

142

131

169

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Export amount of nickel ore Export amount of ferronickel Average unit price ratio(ferronickel/nickel ore)

Million $

中国镍铁产业向印尼转移 Chinese ferronickel industry is shifting to Indonesia

华北

华东

华南

K k

J

世界产业转移驱动力： ① 经济发展 ② 资源 ③ 成本 ④ 近消费端

中国企业投资印尼的镍铁项目 Investment projects and developments from China

Project site Capacity Products Technology Project progress

Tsingshan Sulawesi 1.5mt,1mtSTS

NPI，STS RKEF SMI &GCNS finished，ITSS under construction

Jinlin Sulawesi 10kt NPI BF Finished*

Zhenshi GEBE Island 10kt NPI BF Finished

Ningbo Brillimetal Sulawesi 25kt NPI BF Finished*

macrolink Sulawesi 100kt NPI BF Finished*

Qingdao Hengshun Sulawesi 180kt NPI RKEF BF finished,RKEF under construction

Xinxing-Pipes OBI Island 200kt NPI,STS(planed) RKEF In construction

Vansun Sulawesi 1.1Mt NPI BF+RKEF In construction

Delong Sulawesi 3Mt NPI,STS(planed) RKEF In construction

Huadi Sulawesi 360kt NPI Sinter-submerged arc furnace

In construction

Dafeng Haebor Sulawesi 30kt(Ni) NPI Sinter-submerged arc furnace

In construction

Sinovel Sulawesi 100kt NPI BF Slow

Hanking Sulawesi 20kt NPI Shaft Furnace Slow

Shanghai Zhonghe Sulawesi 50kt NPI BF -

Shanghai Pan-pacific North Maluku 900kt NPI -

全球镍铁产业向印尼转移的趋势悄然成型 Global ferronickel industry shift to Indonesia

20 19 22 2248

98

200

1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

2.5%

5.0%

9.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f

Indonesia Indonesia's proportion

Nickel Finished Supply of Indonesia

未来全球不锈钢产业有望加速向印尼转移 The future of the global stainless steel industry is expected to

accelerate the transfer to Indonesia

19,18720,690

22,84024,570 24,546

28,706

28,146

26,218 24,904

31,09433,621

35,91738,506

41,685 41,548

43.8% 43.7%46.6%

48.4%

52.0%53.6%

58.7% 58.4%

65.4% 65.2%68.0%

70.6%73.4% 74.4% 74.7%

3.8%5.5%

7.8%9.6%

12.9%

18.5%

25.6% 26.5%

35.4% 36.2%

41.9%44.8%

49.3%52.0% 51.9%

0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

45,000.00

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

World poduction Asia's proportion China's proportion

数据来源:Wind资讯

Imports of nickel ore From Philippines From Indonesia

07-12 08-12 09-12 10-12 11-12 12-12 13-12 14-12 15-1207-120

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000吨吨

中国红土镍矿进口量显著下降 Chinese laterite imports decreased significantly

数据来源:Wind资讯

Nickel Ore Inventory at China's Ports

13-12-31 14-06-30 14-12-31 15-06-30 15-12-3113-12-3113-06-30

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

万吨万吨

中国主要港口红土矿库存持续下降 Nickel ore inventories at China's main ports continued to decline

中国镍铁产量与镍平均含量 Chinese ferronickel monthly output and average nickel content

数据来源:Wind资讯

Output of NPI Average nickel content(%)(右轴)

12-Q4 13-Q1 13-Q2 13-Q3 13-Q4 14-Q1 14-Q2 14-Q3 14-Q4 15-Q1 15-Q2 15-Q3 15-Q4 16-Q112-Q4

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

万吨万吨

4.0

4.8

5.6

6.4

7.2

8.0

8.8

9.6

中国主要产区镍铁产量 Output of Chinese main ferronickel production areas

数据来源:Wind资讯

Jiangsu Shangdong Southern area Inner Mongolia

13-Q4 14-Q1 14-Q2 14-Q3 14-Q4 15-Q1 15-Q2 15-Q3 15-Q4 16-Q113-Q413-Q313-Q213-Q10

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

万吨万吨

中国镍铁产量及开工率 Chinese ferronickel output (nickel metal) and utilization of capacity

数据来源:Wind资讯

Output of Ni from NPI Utilization of capacity(右轴)

12-Q4 13-Q1 13-Q2 13-Q3 13-Q4 14-Q1 14-Q2 14-Q3 14-Q4 15-Q1 15-Q2 15-Q3 15-Q4 16-Q112-Q4

24000

32000

40000

48000

56000

64000

72000

金属吨金属吨

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60%%

中国镍铁进口量激增 Chinese ferronickel imports surge

数据来源:Wind资讯

Import Ferronickel from Indonesia Import Ferronickel Export Ferronickel

10-12 11-12 12-12 13-12 14-12 15-1210-120

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

吨吨

中国精炼镍进口量激增 China's imports of refined nickel surge

数据来源:Wind资讯

从俄罗斯进口量 精炼镍及合金出口 精炼镍及合金进口 精炼镍及合金净进口

07-12 08-12 09-12 10-12 11-12 12-12 13-12 14-12 15-1207-12

-8000

0

8000

16000

24000

32000

40000

48000吨吨

Imports from Russia Exports Imports Net imports

LME和SHFE镍库存 LME and SHFE nickel inventory

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000 20

10-0

8-06

2010

-10-

06

20

10

-12

-06

20

11

-02

-06

20

11

-04

-06

20

11

-06

-06

20

11

-08

-06

20

11

-10

-06

20

11

-12

-06

20

12

-02

-06

2012

-04-

06

20

12

-06

-06

20

12

-08

-06

20

12

-10

-06

20

12

-12

-06

20

13

-02

-06

20

13

-04

-06

20

13

-06

-06

2013

-08-

06

2013

-10-

06

20

13

-12

-06

20

14

-02

-06

2014

-04-

06

20

14

-06

-06

20

14

-08

-06

20

14

-10

-06

20

14

-12

-06

20

15

-02

-06

20

15

-04

-06

2015

-06-

06

2015

-08-

06

2015

-10-

06

20

15

-12

-06

2016

-02-

06

20

16

-04

-06

LME镍 SHFE镍 库存总计

Total inventory LME SHFE

Macquarie’s Forecast

Source: INSG, Macquarie Research, May 2016

我们的中性预测：预计2016年过剩进一步减少 Our neutral forecast: the excess is expected to further decrease in 2016

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F2016F

供需平衡（左） 原镍产量 消费量

Balance(right) output consumption

Supply and demand index

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

供需指数

Jan 2012=1.00

处于长期过剩的修复阶段 Repair stage of a long-term surplus

镍和镍铁价格走势 Nickel and ferronickel (NPI) prices

数据来源:Wind资讯

LME Nickel Price(3M) NPI(<2%)(右轴) NPI(6-8%)(右轴)

10-12-31 11-12-31 12-12-31 13-12-31 14-12-31 15-12-3110-12-31

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

27000

30000美元/吨美元/吨

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

4000

全球镍成本曲线 Global nickel cost curve

Source: Bloomberg, Norilsk Nickel data, WoodMackenzie.

Vale的镍生产成本和未来产量计划 Vale nickel production costs and future production plans

影响金属价格的主要因素 The main factors affecting the price of metal

Supply—Demand

Cost

USDX

RMB exchange

rate

Crude oil

stock market

Monetary environment

主要结论(1) Main conclusions(1)

1. 全球镍铁产能置换转移态势已经形成，主要表现为中国镍铁去产能而印尼镍铁增加产能。The transfer trend of global ferronickel industry has been formed, mainly for China to Indonesia.

2. 印尼镍铁产量开始影响供需平衡表，当印尼镍铁产能集中释放时，将对价格形成较大的供给压力。后期印尼产能释放进度也跟镍价相关。Indonesia's ferronickel production began to influence global supply and demand balance sheet. Nickel price also affect the release of Indonesia ferronickel production capacity.

3. 国内镍供给收缩导致的供需缺口最终将通过增加进口弥补，目前看是超量弥补，全球库存转移，导致了国内总供给的过剩。 Domestic supply contraction led to the widening gap between supply and demand. The gap will eventually be filled by imports. There is excess offset, global nickel inventories transfer, resulting in the total excess supply of nickel in China.

主要结论(2) Main conclusions(2)

4. 印尼镍铁进一步向产业链下游不锈钢延伸也将是必然趋势。当印尼不锈钢产能释放时，因印尼镍铁回流国内将大幅减少，中国国内总体供需将得以改善。It’s an inevitable trend that Indonesia ferronickel industry will extend to stainless steel industry and its downstream. When Indonesia's stainless steel began to produce , ferronickel exports will be significantly reduced. China's domestic supply and demand will be improved.

5. 预计2016年全球原生镍供需过剩大幅减少，2016年供需进一步趋向平衡。We forecast that the surplus of global primary nickel supply will be reduced and it further tends to balance in 2016.

Thank You!

Email: d2080@qq.com