dmaps- ashutosh

8/6/2019 DMAPS- Ashutosh

1/41

Decision Making

andProblem Solving


2/41

Question!

A farmer with his wolf, goat, and cabbage

come to the edge of a river they wish to

cross. There is a boat at the rivers edge, but

of course, only the farmer can row. The boat

can only handle one animal/item in addition

to the farmer. If the wolf is ever left alone with

the goat, the wolf will eat the goat. If the goatis left alone with the cabbage, the goat will

eat the cabbage. What should the farmer do

to get across the river with all his

possessions?


3/41

Decision Making

Decision Making is choosing

between alternative courses of

action No decision is also a decision


4/41

What is a Problem?

The Word Problemoriginates from

ancient Greek language proballothat

meansto put a

head and

to propose


5/41

What is a Problem?

The difference between two situations or

states:

What is! What should be!

i.e. the ObjectiveorGoal


6/41

The WHAT IS State

A Collection of existing conditions requiring

change (or elimination) related to a specific area

EXAMPLE: Long line-ups in hospital emergency wards. The WHAT IS situation is an evidence ofa

PROBLEMnot the problem itself!


7/41

The WHAT SHOULD BE

State Developing a new WHAT IS which will

provide the required objective

(the WHAT SHOULD BE)


8/41

Problem Statement

A written statement expressing clearly the

required transition from the WHAT IS to the

WHAT SHOULD BE situation within a desiredtime interval.


9/41

Challenge

AGREEMENT on the

WHAT IS and

WHAT SHOULD BE

poses a CHALLENGE!


10/41


11/41

Problem vs Opportunity

A Problem is not an Obstruction but rather an

Opportunity

a condition to be reached when aselected objective

(WHAT SHOULD BE) is realized.


12/41

What is a solution?

An action to permit

Realization

of the

What Should Be

Situation


13/41

A

B1

2

S

n - 1n

Set of n possible solutions

(n paths)WHAT

SHOULD

BE The Objective

IDEAL SOLUTION

PATH S

WHAT IS

The Starting Point

THE PROBLEM = BA

CHALLENGE: SELECTING THE OPTIMUM SOLUTION, PATHS


14/41

Optimum Solution

1. Transforms the WHAT IS situation into

the WHAT SHOULD BE objective

2. Satisfies the Three-Question Check


15/41

Three Questions Check

1. WILL IT: accomplish the"objective"? i.e The What Should Be

2. IS IT: feasible to implement?

3. DOES IT: have a minimum numberof"adverse consequences"?


16/41

Decision Making

1. Select the Optimum solution for theidentified problem

2. Make a commitment to carry out theoptimum solution.

3. Move from the What Is to theWhat Should Be (the Objective)


17/41

Problem Solving

Problem Solving is identifying and

correcting deviations between what you

wanted to happen and what actually

happened.

In simple terms, it is explaining the

difference between what you wanted and

what you got.


18/41

Problem Solving

Decision Making focuses on selecting analternative before you do something.Problem Solving focuses on things that go

wrong while you are doing something. Since problem solving is concerned with

the difference between what you wanted

and what you got,

it concentrates onfinding the deviation. This can be lookedat graphically.


19/41

Deviation

Actual

Point of Deviation

You begin with a specific goal in mind

You get a different result

You find the deviation

Begin Goal

Analyze and correct the deviation


20/41

Decision Making Model


21/41

Why are Decisions So Hard?

The four key areas that determine the

relative difficulty ofa decision are:

1. Structure in general, the more structure,

the less information required

2. Cognitive limitations the human mind is

limited to handling 5 to 9 distinct pieces of

information


22/41

Why are Decisions So Hard?

The four key areas that determine the

relative difficulty ofa decision are:

3. Uncertainty the amount is based on how

complete and accurate the information is

4. Alternatives and multiple objectives the

selection ofone alternative may impede

the progress towards a different goal


23/41

Simons Model of Problem Solving

Simon proposed a three-phase model of

problem solving:

1. Intelligence phase the decision maker

looks for indications that a problem exists

2. Design phase alternatives are formulated

and analyzed

3. Choice phase one of the alternatives isselected and implemented


24/41

Simons Model of Problem Solving


25/41

Travelling Salesman Problem


26/41

Initial Heuristic SolutionRule: start at home, go to closest city


27/41

Modified Heuristic SolutionRule: no crossing any connection, no backtracking


28/41

Problems and Solutions

Eg.

Messner

conquered the top

of the mountain.

Problem well put

+

Problem well solved


29/41


Eg.Titanic

Problem well put

+

Problem badly solved


30/41


Eg.

Americas

Discovery

Problem badly put

+

Problem well solved


31/41


Eg.Suicide

Problem badly put

+

Problem badly solved


32/41

Problem Solving vs. Decision-

Making

Problem-solving is a set ofactivities

designed to analyze a situation and find,

implement, and evaluate solutions.

Decision making is making choices at

each step of the problem-solving process.


33/41

Problem Solving and Decision

Making

Critical Thinking


34/41

Critical Thinking: What is it!

Taking yourself (your brain) out ofAutomaticmode, and putting it into Manual mode

Purposeful thought with the objective ofcreating

a result.

An impartial way ofAnalyzing and Evaluatingdata, statements, and observations.

A Process ofunderstanding the relationshipsbetween information, a selection ofpossibledecisions, and their corresponding outcomes.


35/41

YourAutomatic Thinking MindIt can be very, very helpful

Read the following paragraph:

You mghit tnihk its aaminzg taht you canraed tihs with vrialuty no diluftficuy eevntuohg the lttres are mxeid up. It trnus outtaht all you need is the fsrit and lsat leetrts in

the crocert pcale. Tihs is an eaxplme of

yuorbarin rnuning in aoumtatic mdoe.

But can it sometimes be too helpful?Did you pick up that though was misspelled and didnt follow the rule?


36/41

YourAutomatic Thinking MindCan it sometimes help too much?

Count every F in the following text

FINISHED FILES ARE THE RESULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTI

FIC STUDY COMBINED WITH

THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS

How many did you count?


37/41

YourAutomatic Thinking MindIt makes things up


38/41

Critical ThinkingHow it makes a difference

It enables you to look at issues differently.

This results in new perspectives and ideas.

It prevents a distorted picture. Your brain hides information and make things up.

It gives you a framework to Think.

This helps organize and guide your thinking while

leveraging and incorporating the thinking ofothers.


39/41

Empty your Bucket

Approach a problem ortask as ifyou know

nothing about barriers.

You may not know what todo, or how to accomplish it

but there IS a solution.

Other

Departments

Lack of

resources,time, budget

Been there,

Done that !!!

Conflictingpriorities,

strategies

and projects

Slow Drainage

Filled

Buckets

Overflow

There

IsAlways

A

Way !!!!Empty

Buckets

can

accommodate

anything

Filled Buckets

have no room

forCriticalThinking and

Creativity

They are filled

with Bias


40/41

Responses That Kill Creativity

It cant be done.

Weve never done it.

Has anyone else tried it? It wont work with us

It costs too much.

It isnt in the budget. Lets form a committee.


41/41

Reading furnishes the mind only with materials of

knowledge; it is thinking that makes what we read ours.

- John Locke (1632 - 1704)

The human mind once stretched by a new idea

never goes back to its original dimensions

- OliverWendell Holmes (1809-1894)

Discovery is seeing what everybody else has seen, andthinking what nobody else has thought.

- Albert Szent-Gyorgyi (1893 - 1986)

Quotes

dmaps- ashutosh

Documents