domestic and international markets for east med gas ...hpcl/shapoorji pallonji west jaigarh 4 2018...

London

Houston

Singapore

Moscow

Dubai

New York

Calgary

Santiago

Rio de Janeiro

Beijing

Shanghai

Tokyo

Sydney

Astana

Kiev

Cape Town

Riga

San Francisco

Washington

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

Domestic and international markets for East Med gasLebanon International Oil and Gas SummitBeirut

Matt Drinkwater9 May 2017

• Domestic markets

• Regional markets

• International markets

Introduction

Copyright © 2017 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

Domestic markets

Fuel switching could result in considerable savings


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2014 2016

bn

USD

Notional Lebanese power generation fuel purchase costs

Oil products LNG

Algeria has used its gas resources to drive economic development

Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

bn

m³

Algerian gas demand

Pipeline exports Liquefaction Power-sector gas burn Industrial gas consumption

Algeria has used its gas resources to drive economic development


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

bn

m³

Algerian gas supply-demand balance

Pipeline exports Liquefaction Power-sector gas burn

Industrial gas consumption Commercial gas production Total exports

Egypt has also built a large gas-based industrial sector


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan2011 Jul2011 Jan2012 Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jan2015 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017

bn

m³

Egyptian gas demand balance

Exports Power sector Non-power consumption

Egypt has also built a large gas-based industrial sector


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan2011 Jul2011 Jan2012 Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jan2015 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017

bn

m³

Egyptian gas supply-demand balance

Exports Power sector Non-power consumption Production + Imports Production

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

Regional markets

Egypt returning to self-sufficiency – and eyeing hub role


BP’s projected equity Egyptian gas production growth


Name Production Date

Zohr1bn ft/d End 2017/early 2018

2.4bn ft/d End of 2019

Atoll 300mn ft/d End of December 2017

West Nile Delta1.2bn ft/d Spring 2017

Phase 2 TBA

Nooros700mn ft/d End of 2016

880mn ft/d Early 2018

Egyptian gas production set to rise quickly


• Plus Israeli gas imports once arbitration/pipeline dispute resolved?

Israeli and Cypriot gas looking for export routes


Export routes under consideration by Leviathan partners

Market Reporting

Consulting

Events

International markets

The world gas market is highly cyclical


0.0000

2.0000

4.0000

6.0000

8.0000

10.0000

12.0000

14.0000

16.0000

18.0000

20.0000

Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017

$/m

n B

tu

Key international gas prices

NBP Henry Hub Japan average import price

Third wave of LNG capacity expansion is underway


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan 72 Jan 75 Jan 78 Jan 81 Jan 84 Jan 87 Jan 90 Jan 93 Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11 Jan 14 Jan 17 Jan 20

t/yr

LNG liquefaction capacity, cumulative

Brunei UAE Indonesia Malaysia

Australia Qatar Trinidad and Tobago Nigeria

Oman Equatorial Guinea Norway Russia

…but demand from new importers has grown strongly


-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17

m³

LNG

Egypt Jordan Pakistan

…and price-sensitive importers are buying more


-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17

m³

LNG

Turkey China India

Only half of current Chinese regas capacity is utilised


TERMINAL CAP (MN T) STATUS EXPANSION OWNERS

Dalian 6 In use PetroChina, Dalian Port, Dalian Construction

Guangdong Dapeng, Shenzhen 6.7 In use 2.3 GDLNG (CNOOC, BP, local Chinese firms)

Fujian 5.2 In use 3 Fujian LNG (CNOOC, Fujian Investment Dev Corp)

Jiangsu Rudong LNG 6.5 In use PetroChina via its 50.74% share in Kunlun Energy, Pacific Oil & Gas, Jiangsu Guoxin

Shanghai LNG 3 In use Shanghai LNG (CNOOC, Shenergy Group)

Zhejiang Ningbo 3 In use CNOOC, Zhejiang Energy Group, Ningbo Power Development

Tianjin FLNG 2.2 In use 6 CNOOC, Tianjin Port Group, Tianjin Gas Group

Zhuhai 3.5 In use CNOOC, Guangdong Yudean Group, state governments

Tangshan, Hebei 3.5 In use PetroChina, Beijing Enterprises Holdings, Hebei Provincial Construction & Investment Co.

Hainan Island 3 In use CNOOC, Hainan Development Holdings

Shandong, Qingdao 3 In use 3.5 Sinopec, Shandong state firms

Dongguan, Shenzhen 1 In use Jovo

Beihai, Guangxi 3 In use Sinopec, Guangxi state firms

Jieyang (Yuedong) LNG 2 Early 2017 CNOOC, Guangdong Yudean Group

Diefu, Shenzhen 4 2017 CNOOC, Shenzhen Energy

Tianjin 3 2016 7 Sinopec

Zhoushan 3 2018 ENN

TOTAL 61.6

India to treble regas capacity


TERMINAL CAP (MN T) STATUS EXPANSION OWNERS COAST COMMENT

Dahej 15 In use 2.5 Petronet LNG west

Kochi 5 Commissioned Petronet LNG westPipeline pending

Dabhol 5 In use Gail/NTPC westBreakwater

pending

Hazira 5 In use 2.5 Shell/Total west

Mundra 5 2017 Adani/GSPC west

Ennore 5 2019 IOC east

Gujarat 5 2019Swan

Energy/Exmar west FSRU

Dhamra 5 2020 Adani/IOC/Gail east

Kakinada 4 Plan KGLNG FSRU

Gangavaram 5 Shelved Petronet LNG east

Kakinada 1.75 Plan GMR east FSRU

Kakinada 5 2018-19 GAIL/Shell east FSRU

Kakinada 5 2018-19KEI-RSOS

Petroleum east FSRU

Andaman 0.5 Plan Petronet LNG south FSRU

Gujarat 5 2019HPCL/Shapoorji

Pallonji west

Jaigarh 4 2018 H-Energy west FSRU

West Bengal 3 2019 H-Energy east FSRU

TOTAL 83.25

Countries Number of projects Capacity

Pakistan Three additional 16mn t/yr

Bangladesh Three 12mn t/yr

India Four-eight 18-36mn t/yr

Ghana Two 9mn t/yr

Ivory Coast One 3mn t/yr

Chile One 5.5mn t/yr

Uruguay One 5mn t/yr

Colombia One 3mn t/yr

More…

We count over 30 proposed FSRU projects


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domestic and international markets for east med gas ...hpcl/shapoorji pallonji west jaigarh 4 2018...

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