Distribution of Disease

/ / /

incidence rateattack rateprevalence rate (infection rate) (secondary attack rate SAR)

(

K= 100%1000/ 10000/

attack rate

prevalence rate

K= 100% 1000/ 10000/

()

()()

( Baker 1998)

2-1

P I D

(infection rate)

K=100%

(secondary attack rate SAR) () SAR

mortality rate fatality rate (survival rate) (cumulative mortality rate)

mortality rate K= 100% 1000/ 10000/

= (crude death rate)

(specific death rate)

fatality rate K= 100% 1000/ 10000/

K= 100% 1000/ 10000/

(survival rate) 13 5

(cumulative mortality rate )

() K= 100% 1000/ 10000/

() potential years of life lost,PYLL

e() i-() ai- ai= e-(i+0.5),() e0.5 di-

YPLL

YPLL

1974PYLL PYLL(170) (170) PYLL() % % 1312675.0 100.0 77440 100.0 239238.5 18.2 5864 8.0 198327.5 15.1 19205 26.2 165264.5 12.6 4795 6.5 84195.0 6.4 2716 3.7 56667.0 4.3 5186 7.1 50264.0 3.8 3425 4.7 48079.5 3.7 4444 6.1 45418.0 3.5 4068 5.5 37954.0 2.7 2204 3.0 30919.0 2.4 2108 2.9 29634.0 2.3 1119 1.5 (Frerichs,1986)

1974PYLL PYLL(170) (170) PYLL() % % 1312675.0 100.0 77440 100.0 239238.5 18.2 5864 8.0 198327.5 15.1 19205 26.2 165264.5 12.6 4795 6.5 84195.0 6.4 2716 3.7 56667.0 4.3 5186 7.1 50264.0 3.8 3425 4.7 48079.5 3.7 4444 6.1 45418.0 3.5 4068 5.5 37954.0 2.7 2204 3.0 30919.0 2.4 2108 2.9 29634.0 2.3 1119 1.5 (Frerichs,1986)

()disability adjusted life year, DALY

(YLL) (YLD)

DALY

( sporadic)

(epidemic)

(outbreak)

2015105 22 24 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 910

()

1964-1965

1964-1965

Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS - end of 2003

Total: 34 46 million

Western Europe520 000 680 000North Africa & Middle East470 000 730 000Sub-Saharan Africa25.0 28.2 millionEastern Europe & Central Asia1.2 1.8 millionSouth & South-East Asia4.6 8.2 millionAustralia & New Zealand12 000 18 000 North America790 000 1.2 millionCaribbean350 000 590 000Latin America1.3 1.9 millionEast Asia & Pacific700 000 1.3 million

2000AIDS

HIV1985 2001.6HIV1-5051-100101-500501-10001001-5000>5000

()

(endemic)

(rapid fluctuation)

() (seasonal variation) : : ---

1996

2000O157:H7

()periodicity) (

19501988(1991 )

secular trendsecular change

(19001973)(Beaglehole R,1993)

()

(JS Mausner,1985) `

Schottenfeld D, 1982,1996 1/10

(1) (cross sectional analysis)

(2) (birth cohort analysis) birth cohort)

Massachusetts188019101930 (LH Roth1982)

Massachusetts

Frost Massachusetts 19305060 2040 19305060

() /

HIV1985 2001.6

()

()

AIDS----

()

()

90-97

Haenszel W 19681/10

2-11 1964-19652-12 1964-1965

map in the back of epi update

2-13 Haenszel W 1968 1995