Download - 141101 market outlook november
![Page 1: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
MARKET OUTLOOK NOVEMBER:
MENANTI KEJELASAN
BBM SUBSIDIOleh: Satrio Utomo
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
![Page 2: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Ketika Jokowi Menang…
1 November 2014PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
2
� BBM Subsidi akan dinaikkan � SEGERA!!!
� Dominasi Kemenangan Jokowi oleh PDIP � DominasiPDIP pada Tim Transisi
� Grup Lippo kembali ke panggung utama bursa �Mulai Break High
� Dominasi Koalisi Merah Putih pada Parlemen � UU Pilkada
� Barisan orang-orang ‘Gagal Move-On’ � Silakan lirikkiri-kanan di Facebook
� Presiden RI masih SBY hingga Oktober 2014
![Page 3: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Kenaikan BBM Subsidi: Kapan?
1 November 2014PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
3
![Page 4: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Pengaruh kenaikan BBM Subsidi
1 November 2014PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
4
� Short term: Negative
� Inflasi
� Penurunan daya beli
� Long Term: Positive
� Pemerintah memiliki tambahan anggaran untuk
melakukan pembangunan
� Subsidi Energi pada APBN-P Rp 453,3 tr dimana Rp
350,3 tr adalah Subsidi BBM
![Page 5: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Aliran Dana Asing
� Tekanan jual asing
sudah terlihat berhenti
untuk sementara waktu
� Asing masih malu-malu.
� Perlu dilihat apakah
‘kepastian kenaikan
BBM Subsidi’ akan
membuat pemodal asing
kembali dalam posisi
beli
1 November 2014
5
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
![Page 6: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The Fed akan
Naikkan Suku Bunga
1 November 2014PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
6
Dari www.marketwatch.com:
Although the Fed said it would keep fed funds rate at zero, investors appeared to be caught off guard by the Fed’s upbeat view on the labor market and inflation. In its accompanying statement after its two-day meeting, the Fed explicitly said it could raise interest rates sooner than markets have forecast, if the economy grows faster than the bank projects. It was the first time the Fed made such explicit remarks about how quickly it could hike rates.
![Page 7: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Stimulus Ekonomi Jepang
1 November 2014PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
7
� BOJ menaikkan jumlah bond buying program
(seperti yang dilakukan oleh The Fed pada saat
Quantitative easing) dari 60-70 trilyun yen menjadi
sekitar 80 trilyun yen
� Pengaruh ke IHSG
� Lembaga Pemeringkat Jepang (JICA) adalah baru saja
memantapkan peringkat Indonesia di Investment Grade
![Page 8: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
IHSG
1 November 2014
8
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
![Page 9: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
IHSG November
1 November 2014PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
9
� Rebound ditengah penundaan kenaikan BBM
Subsidi
� Menanti kenaikan BBM Subsidi
� Naik:
� Resisten Kuat di 5150 – 5250
� Resisten utama di 5117
� Gaps: 5107 - 5124
� Turun:
� Suport di 4950 – 5050, suport kedua di 4750 - 4900
![Page 10: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Risk
� Wedge
� Target di 4000-
4200
� Target hanya muncul
jika suport 4900
ditembus.
1 November 2014
10
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
![Page 11: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Beberapa Gambar IHSG
1 November 2014PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
11
� IHSG bergerak naik,
menembus resisten di
5117, dan mencapai
titik tertinggi yang
merupakan akhir dari
subwave c di kisaran
5100 – 5250, sebelum
bergerak turun untuk
wave C dengan arah
di 4800-4850.
![Page 12: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Beberapa Gambar IHSG
� IHSG langsung
bergerak turun, tanpa
menebus resisten di
5117.
� Trend turun IHSG
memiliki potensi
koreksi hingga kisaran
4700 – 4750.
1 November 2014
12
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
![Page 13: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Apakah Resisten 5117 ditembus ???
Pertanyaan Utama
1 November 2014
13
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
![Page 14: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Penutup
1 November 2014
14
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
![Page 15: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Kesimpulan Akhir…
1 November 2014PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
15
�Penundaan kenaikan BBM Subsidimemberikan ketidakpastian baru
�Short term stimulus Jepang akanmembuat IHSG naik
�Jangan lupa: short term impact dariBBM Subsidi bisa saja jelek
�Kalau IHSG 4750 – 4900 lagi: BELI!!!
![Page 16: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Strategi November
1 November 2014PT. Universal Broker Indonesia
16
� Posisi trading hingga trend naik selesai
� Jika IHSG turun lagi karena kenaikan BBM Subsidi: Buy On Weakness terutama ketika IHSG masuk kisaran suport 4750 – 4900.
� Tetap di Gerbong Pertama, tapi fokus pada saham-saham dengan kinerjadiatas ekspektasi
� Asing: Perbankan (BBRI, BMRI(?), BBNI, BBCA),
� Big Caps : TLKM, PGAS, ASII(?), GGRM, UNVR(?)
� Lokal: Konstruksi (WIKA, ADHI, WSKT, WTON)
� Sentimen Jokowi: AKRA, PGAS, JSMR, Lippo (??), Maritim (??)
� Batubara (UNTR, ITMG(???), PTBA)
� CPO (AALI, LSIP(?))
Ket: (?) = Kinerja 3Q2014 dibawah ekspektasi
(??) = Spekulatif
(???) = Laporan keuangan 3Q2014 belum dipublikasikan.
![Page 17: 141101 market outlook november](https://reader034.vdocuments.pub/reader034/viewer/2022051314/5598b1531a28ab1e158b4769/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Terima kasih
1 November 2014
17
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia