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Fei CHAI (柴扉) and Francisco Chavez
University of Maine Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
Outlines:
Needs & Challenges of Modeling Ecosystems
Physical and Ecosystem Models
Peruvian Anchoveta, ENSO Forecasts
1
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An ecosystem sandwich
Marine Ecosystems
CLIMATEFISHING
FISHING/HARVEST: a combination of effort and abundance
CLIMATE: exerts important influences on habitat
2
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FAO (2004)
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(Chavez et al. Science 2003)
PDO
Anchoveta Sardine
Trends of climatic and oceanographic variables in the Pacific Basin
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Benthivorous Fish
Pelagic Invertebrate
Predators
Phytoplankton
Seabirds
Deposit-feedingBenthos
Suspension- feeding Benthos
DOAmmonia
Fishing
Detritus
Micro-Zooplankton
Meso-Zooplankton
Nitrate+Nitrite
Nano-Phytoplankton
PlanktivorousFish
Piscivorous Fish
Pre-recruits Pre-recruits Pre-recruitsMarine
Mammals
spawning
recruitment
Bacteria
How to Link?
5
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FC 6
deYoung, Heath, Werner, Chai, Megrey, Monfray
Science, 2004
The difficulty arises because organisms at higher trophic
levels are longer lived, with important variability in
abundance and distribution at basin and decadal scales.
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The rhomboids indicate the conceptual characteristics for models with differentspecies and differing areas of primary focus.
Rhomboid is broadest wheremodel has its greatest functional complexity i.e., at the level of the target organism.
deYoung, Heath, Werner, Chai, Megrey, MonfrayScience, 2004
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Fei CHAI (柴扉) and Francisco Chavez
University of Maine Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
Outlines:
Needs & Challenges of Modeling Ecosystems
Physical and Ecosystem Models Peruvian Anchoveta, ENSO Forecasts
8
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FC9
Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
Sea Surface Height (SSH)
3 day averaged, 1993 to 2006
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS): 12-kmRes.
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PhysicalModel
Nitrate[NO3]
Advaction
& Mixing
SmallPhytoplankton
[P1]NO3
Uptake
Micro-Zooplankton
[Z1]
Grazing
Ammonium[NH4]
Excretion
NH4
Uptake
Detritus-N[DN]
Fecal
Pellet
Sinking
Silicate[Si(OH)4]
Diatoms[P2]
Si
Uptake
N-Uptake
Meso-zooplankton
[Z2]
Sinking
Detritus-Si[DSi]
GrazingFecal
Pellet
Sinking
Predation
Lost
Total CO2
[TCO2]
Biological
Uptake
Air-Sea
Exchange
Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem ModelCoSiNE, Chai et al. 2002; Dugdale et al. 2002
Iron
Iron
Chai et al., 1996
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Eddy-Resolving Ocean Modeling at 12-km
Regional Ocean Model Systems (ROMS)-CoSiNECoSiNE: Carbon, Silicate, and Nitrogen Ecosystem (Chai et al., 2002)
ROMS
SST
Jan. 1993
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Fei CHAI (柴扉) and Francisco Chavez
University of Maine Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
Outlines:
Needs & Challenges of Modeling Ecosystems
Physical and Ecosystem Models
Peruvian Anchoveta, ENSO Forecasts
12
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Lima
Why Peru?
A fishing village in Peru
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The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, FAO (2004)14
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Daily sampling covers all the landing points, and 10% of the active fishing fleet.
Birds and
mammals
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El Nino and Peruvian Anchovy Fishery
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
Annual Anchovy Catch
10 x 106 MT
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Pacific Basin ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) SimulationAnnual Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
ModeledSST (oC)
SatelliteSST (oC)
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Surfare Chlorophyll Comparisonin situ, the modeled, and SeaWiFS
Historical DataSeaWiFS
1997-2006
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FC
Si(OH)4
Meso
zooplankton
ROMS-CoSINE (12-km), Annual Mean Si(OH)4, Diatoms, Meso-zooplankton along 10oS
2021
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FC21
ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) Si(OH)4 and Diatoms along 10oS
Jan. 1999
Jan. 1999
Jan.1998
Si(OH)4
Diatoms
Offshore Distance400 km
40
20
0
4
2
0
mmol/m3
mmol/m3
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FC
in situ
Modeled
SeaWiFS
Seasonal Cycle of Surface Chlorophyllalong the Coast of Peru, 0-100km, 4oS-18oS
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Science at the leading and/or bleeding edge
First ever long term forecast of chlorophyll?
Surface chlorophyll, Nov. 2008
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Forecasting Skill for Peru Coast - about 6 months
Forecasted
Simulated
Data
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EGGSDURATION: 24 HR
MORTALITY RATE>99%
YOLK-SAC LARVELEN: 2-4MM
DURATION: 24-28 HRMORTALITY RATE 80%-98%
FIRST-FEEDERFEED BY PHYTOPL.
LEN: 4.25CM, WT: ~2 gmDURATION: 80 DAYS
AGE-1(JUVENILE)BECOME SEXUAL MATRUE
LEN: 8-10CMWT: ~10 gm
AGE-2LEN: ~20CM WT: ~55 gm
OPT TEMP: 18.6°CSPAWN ~20 TIMES/YR
AGE-2+LIFE SPAN ~3 YR
PREDATOR: SEA BIRDS, MARINE MAMMALS
Life Cycle of Peruvian AnchovyIndividual Based Model with ROMS-CoSINE
ROMS-CoSIN
E (12 km)
Temperature, Curre
nts,
Planktons
ROM
S-CoSIN
E (12 k
m)
Tem
peratu
re, C
urrents
,
Plankt
ons
ROM
S-CoSINE (12 km)
Temperature, Currents,
Planktons
RO
MS-C
oSINE (12 km
)
Temperature, C
urrents,
Planktons
25
ROMS-CoSINE-IBM
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Current, Food, Temperature, and Behavior
Wind
Coast
Zooplankton
Phytoplankton
Currents
Anchovy
Surface
100 m
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Fish Growth Curves
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Days to recruit to 5cm
Total Zooplankton
Total Phytoplankton
Recruitment: Seasonal Cycle
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There is a clear seasonal and interannual variability characterized by anchovy recruitment to 5cm.
Strong El NinoModerate El Nino
Temperature
diatommesozooplankton
Recruitment
Anchovy Recruitment in Response to ENSO
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Current, Food, Temperature, and Behavior
Wind
Coast
Zooplankton
Phytoplankton
Currents
Anchovy
Surface
100 m
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3-D model results Passive driftDay 31Day 1 Day 61
0m
release
30m
release
February 1991
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1
3
2
Fish is able to search a given round area, the radius is
determined by swimming speed.
The new location is determined by the highest potential
growth rate within the search area.
If there are more than one preferred place, then randomly
choose one.
3-D model results Swimming Assumptions
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Dep0m
Dep30m
3-D model results Swimming Results
6 month1 month
0m
release
30m
release
January1991
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Fei CHAI (柴扉) and Francisco Chavez
University of Maine Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
Outlines:
Needs & Challenges of Modeling Ecosystems
Physical and Ecosystem Models
Peruvian Anchoveta, ENSO Forecasts
ROMS-CoSiNE-IBM34
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Some final thoughts:
New understanding: food web structure, Fe, remote
forcing, ENSO and decadal variability and
predication.
Technical advancement: computing power, observing
power and information infrastructure.
Cost to resource managers of operational ecological
forecasting for fisheries management will be small
because society as a whole has already paid for.
Need to train new generation of marine scientists and
resource managers to integrated all information and
understanding.
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Human Consumption of Anchoveta
A Japanese restaurant in Lima, Peru
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Fei CHAI (柴扉) and Francisco Chavez
University of Maine Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
Outlines:
Needs & Challenges of Modeling Ecosystems
Physical and Ecosystem Models
Peruvian Anchoveta, ENSO Forecasts
ROMS-CoSiNE-IBM37