“Bolsones de crecimiento” en una economía de “bajo
crecimiento”George Gray Molina
Fernanda Wanderleyabril, 2007
Contents
I. Algunos datos sobre crecimiento
II. “Bolsones de crecimiento”
III. Estudios de caso
I. Algunos datos sobre crecimiento
Bolivian and Latin American economic
growth
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Latin America & Caribbean Bolivia
Bolivian Growth rate average (1,8 %)
GDP growth, 1980 - 2003
Public and private investment rates
Bolivia
8,96,7
7,9
6,7
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1970 - 1980 1981 - 2000
Public investment Private investment
Latin America
6,511,2
5,1
12,1
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 - 1980 1981 - 2000
Public investment Private investment
Productivity rates of labor, capital and total factor productivity
Bolivia
2,2
1,31,2
1,8
1,0
-0,8
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5Labor Capital TFP
1960 - 1980 1981 - 2002
América Latina
1,75 1,761,94
1,511,18
-0,28-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5Labor Capital TFP
1960 - 1980 1981 - 2002
Productivity, investment and growth
TFP growth contribution
(%) Investment (% of GDP)
12 14 16 18 20 22 24
0,0 1,9 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,7 2,9 3,1
0,5 2,5 2,7 2,9 3,1 3,3 3,5 3,7
1,0 3 3,2 3,4 3,6 3,8 4 4,2
1,5 3,5 3,8 4,0 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,8
2,0 4,1 4,3 4,5 4,8 5,0 5,2 5,4
2,5 4,6 4,9 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9
3,0 5,2 5,4 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,3 6,5
3,5 5,7 6 6,2 6,5 6,7 6,9 7,1
4,0 6,3 6,5 6,8 7 7,2 7,5 7,7
Bolivia in 90’s: investment -16.8 % and growth of TFP -1.2 %
Bolivia today: investment 13% and growth of TFP 0%
II. “Bolsones de crecimiento”
The export sector
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Traditional products No traditional products
Exports composition, 1980 – 2005 (millons of dollars)
The export sector
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
19
9419
95
1996
1997
1998
19
9920
0020
0120
02
2003
2004
2005
Metals and minerals Natural Gas and Others
Traditional products composition, 1980 – 2005 (% of total)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Algodón
Castaña
Cueros y Manufacturas de cueros
Azúcar
Café en grano
Productos de J oyería
Maderas y Manufacturas demaderasSoya y derivados
No traditional products composition, 1980 – 2005 (% of total)
The export sector
Export profile of Bolivia in 1980 - 1984
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
687 Tin (0,17)
061 Sugars, molasses and honey (0,18)
289 Ores and concentrates of precious metals (-0,12)
072 Cocoa (-0,22)
287 Ores and concentrates of base metals (-0,01)
057 Fruit and nuts fresh or dried (0,07)
699 Manufactures of base metal (-0,06)
248 Wood, simply w orked, and railw ay sleepers of w ood (-0,24)
081 Feeding stuff for animals (-0,18)
341 Gas natural and manufactured (0,24)
071 Coffee and coffee substitutes (-0,18)
211 Hides and skins (except furskins), raw (-0,23)
634 Veneers, plyw ood, etc. (-0,27)
001 Live animals (0,33)
Achievers in adversity
Declining markets
Underachievers
Champions
Increase in world market share of Bolivia 1980 - 1984
Worl
d t
rade g
row
th (
%)
1980 -
1984
Export profile of Bolivia in 1985 - 1989
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
274 Sulphur and unroasted iron pyrites (1,13)
072 Cocoa (0,80)
687 Tin (0,17)
341 Gas natural and manufactured (0,24)
071 Coffee and coffee substitutes (0,18)
047 Other cereal meals and flours (1,26)
699 Manufactures of base metal (-0,12)
287 Ores and concentrates of base metals (0,13)
081 Feeding stuff for animals (0,49)
061 Sugars, molasses and honey (0,91)
112 Alcoholic beverages (0,31)
689 Non fer base metal (071)
263 Cotton (0,00)
289 Ores and concentrates of precious metals (0,69)
057 Fruit and nuts fresh or dried (0,81)
248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleepers of wood (0,92)
211 Hides and skins, raw (1,25)
634 Veneers, plywood, particle board, and other wood (1,08)
Increase in world market share of Bolivia 1985 - 1989
Achievers in adversity
Declining markets
Underachievers Champions
Worl
d t
rade g
row
th (
%)
1985 -
1989
Export profile of Bolivia in 1990 - 1994
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-30 -10 10 30 50 70
047 Other cereal meals and flours (0,244)
071 Coffee and coffee substitutes (0,071)
289 Ores and concentrates of precious metals (-0,075)
423 Fixed vegetable oils, soft (0,280)
634 Veneers, plywood, etc (-0,280)
611 Leather (-0,187)
341 Gas natural and manufactured (0,202)
287 Ores and concentrates of base metals (0,008)
687 Tin (0,120)
061 Sugars, molasses and honey (0,18)
278 Other crude minerals (1,162)
045 Cereals, unmilled (0,580)263 Cotton (0,00)
081 Feeding stuff for animals (0,155)
689 Non fer base metal (0,402)
273 Stone, sand and gravel (0,755)
248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleepers of wood (0,104)
057 Fruits, nuts, fresh, dried (0,187)
512 Alcohols, phenols,(0,307)
842 Men's outwear non - knit
044 Maize (corn), nmilled (0,167)
211 Hides skins (-0,158)
268 Wool, animal hair (-0,174)
Increase in world market share of Bolivia 1990 - 1994
Worl
d t
rade g
row
th (
%)
1990-
1994
Achievers in adversityDeclining markets
Underachievers Champions
Export profile of Bolivia in 1995 - 1999
-12
-7
-2
3
8
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35
081 Feeding stuff for animals (0,35)
287 Ores and concentrates of base metals (0,00)
289 Ores and concentrates of precious metals (-0,09)
341 Gas natural and manufactured (-0,23)
687 Tin (0,13)
248 Wood, simply worked, and railway sleepers of wood (0,104) 423 Fixed vegetable oils, soft (0,16)
045 Cereals, unmilled (0,20)
611 Leather (0,05)
061 Sugars, molasses and honey (0,04)
211 Hides skins (-0,02)
263 Cotton (0,00)
278 Other crude minerals (0,10)
634 Veneers, plywood, etc (0,12)
057 Fruits, nuts, fresh, dried (0,187)
689 Non fer base metal (0,16)112 Alcoholic beverages (0,31)
657 Spec textile fabrics, products (0,01)
072 Cocoa (0,06)
273 Stone, sand and gravel (0,07)699 Base metal manufactures (0,32)
842 Men's outwear non - knit (0,43)
842 Womwn's outwear
non - knit (0,45)
Worl
d t
rade g
row
th (
%)
1995-
1999
Increase in world market share of Bolivia 1995 - 1999
Achievers in adversityDeclining markets
UnderachieversChampions
12670
12037
9353
7724
5809
5073
3018
4640
53364
17053
3372
13297
8742
11915
53086586
8630
5418
4069
12161
639625801
15013
5925
8506
63457
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%
2711 Petroleum gases (19,9)
8001 Unw rought tin (180,7)
1507 Soya bean oil & its fractions (90,9)
26,7 Lead ores and concentrates (32,0)
1201 Soya beans, w hether or not broken (6,0)
2528 Natural borates & concentrates (393,8)
0802 Nuts nes (4,1)
2617 Ores and concentrates (139,5)
8802 Aircraft & spacecraft (0,4)
2616 Precious metal ores and concentrates (606,3)
2608 Zinc ores and concentrates (234,2)
1208 Flour and meals of oil seeds (6,0)
7108 Gold unw rought (4,1)
6203 Men's suits, jackets, trousers etc & shorts (0,6)
6105 Men's shirts, knitted ir cricheted (17,1)
2709 Crude petroleum oil (1,3)
2710 Petroleum oils not crude (0,8)
1701 Cane or beet sugar (11,4)
2304 Soya bean, oil cake and other residues (95,1)
Worl
d t
rade g
row
th (
%)
2000 -
2004
Increase in world market share of Bolivia 2000 - 2004
Achievers in adversityDeclining markets
UnderachieversChampions
Export profile of Bolivia in 2000 - 2004
Wood
Articles of jewellery
Cotton
Leather
III. Estudios de caso
Jewelry Export Industry
Gold Jewelry export in La Paz, 2001 - 2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2001 2002 2003 20040
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Volume (tons) Value (US$ m)
Volume (tons)
Value (US$)
Jewelry Export Industry
Exportadores Bolivianos (EB) cost structure
70
12
117
17,5
3
2,751,75
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
EB % EB $
Labor
Utility
Indirect cost
Raw materials
Rafaela Pitti’s (RP) cost structure
Jewelry Export Industry
40%
25%
22%
13%
17
11
9
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
RP % RP $
Indirectcost andInputs
Labor
Utility
Rawmaterial
Manufactured wood products
Mabet’s cost structure
35%
22%
18%
10%
11%4%
61.25
38.5
31.5
17.5
19.257.O
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MABET % MABET $
Drying
Transport
Inputs
Utility
Labor
Raw material
Manufactured wood products
Soex’s cost structure
48
18
16
765
86,4
32,4
28,8
12,610,8
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SOEX % SOEX $
Transport
Inputs
Drying
Utility
Labor
Raw material
IV. Conclusiones
Conclusiones...
1. De un total de 1,600 productos exportables entre 1986-2005, 23 fueron “campeones”. Otros 160 productos fueron “campeones potenciales”.
2. Ambos grupos son “camellos” en el desierto. Articulan hoy a 330,000 personas en la economía popular urbana y rural.
3. Encontramos tres tipos de “camellos”: los commodities (como el gas), las exportaciones no tradicionales sensibles a precio (como la soya) y las exportaciones no tradicionales sensibles a calidad (madera, joyería, nuevos productos).
Conclusiones...
4. Encontramos que cada tipo de “camello” tiene diferentes “restricciones vinculantes”. Esto implica la necesidad de una política de desarrollo desigual y combinado.
5. Para los commodities con vitales las restricciones “estructurales”. Para las exportaciones sensibles a precio son vitales las restricciones “específicas a sector”. Para las exportaciones sensibles a calidad con vitales las restricciones “específicas a unidad productiva”.
6. Queda pendiente estimar el peso de las restricciones vinculantes: ¿es posible saltarse fases del desarrollo?
Conclusions