Path toward Low-Carbon Society: Japan and Asia1st session: “The results of ‘Japan Low-Carbon Society
Scenarios toward 2050’ Project” (Feb. 12th 2009)
低炭素社会の交通Transportation in Low Carbon Society
(Updated, Feb.11th)
森口 祐一
Yuichi Moriguchi 脱温暖化2050プロジェクト交通チームリーダー
Team Leader, Transport Subproject, LCS 2050 Project
(独)国立環境研究所循環型社会・廃棄物研究センター長
Director, Research Center for Material Cycles and Waste Management, NIES
1
2
Contents
1. Facts and trends in Japanese transport(日本の現状)
2. 2020 Transport Scenarios: Technologies (2020交通シナリオ:技術)
3. 2050 Transport Visions: Combination(2050交通ビジョン:組合せ)
4. Conclusion(まとめ)
3
0
50
100
150
200
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
GDP
Total
Energy Industory
Industrial
Commercial & Residential
Transport
Em
iss
ion
In
de
x d
en
om
ina
ted
by
19
73
Trend of GDP and CO2 emissions by sector in Japan
CO2 emissions had almost the same trend as GDP before the 1st oil crisis
Industrial sector:stay leveling out
Energy Industry, Commercial & Residential sector: level out, then increase recently
Transport sector: continued to increase, then began to decrease
GDP
運輸部門排出量は1997年ごろまで伸び続けた
4
Other0%
Waste3%
EnergyIndustries
32%
IndustrialProcesses
4%
ManufacturingIndustries andConstruction
29%
Transport19%
Commercial &Others
8%
Residential5%
Total CO2 emissions2005
Railway
Maritime
Aviation
Motorvehicle
Share CO2 emissions of transport sector
運輸部門は日本の排出量の約2割を占める。その大半が自動車からの排出
5
Trend of car possessions
0
20
40
60
80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Light vehicles
Small passenger cars
Regular size passenger cars
(Million) Number of passenger car possessions
Year-to-year growth of car posessions
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Regular size passenger cars Small passenger cars Light vehicles
(Million)
保有
増減
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Light passenger cars
Small passenger cars
Regular size passenger cars
(Million) New cars sold
販売
乗用車の保有台数はピークを迎えた
6
Size of passenger cars has been getting larger and causes larger CO2 emissions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Light passenger cars
Small passenger cars
Regular size passenger
Number of car possesions (Million)
Tax system change 税制改正:1989 普通車優遇 物品税廃止
自動車税低減2000 低燃費車優遇 自動車税低減
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005年実
用燃
費(k
m/l)
Average Fuel economy(1987-2005)
Average fuel economy had been getting worse in 90’s
税制の影響が明らか
7
Contents
1. Facts and trends in Japanese transport(日本の現状)
2. 2020 Transport Scenarios: Technologies (2020交通シナリオ:技術)
3. 2050 Transport Visions: Combination(2050交通ビジョン:組合せ)
4. Conclusion(まとめ)
Overview of the project across time horizon
2020 20502000
Mid term
goal
Long term goal
Tax reform
Research
period
Green tax
Cohort analysis by fuel, size,infra for fuel supply, etc. Regulation & Incentive
Forecast of technological Efficiency (vehicle, fuel conversion)
Forecasting
Backcasting
ESTEnvironmentally Sustainable Transport
Kyoto protocolBase year 1990
22.8% increase at 2001
BAU
Demand side management
Technological reduction
+
Lead time needed for
EST Vision, Scenario
Increasing vehicle size
Increasing ownership
Further emission control
Socio-economic impacts
Emission to be reduced
(2)Proposal of long-term emission reduction scenarios by back-casting
(1)Assessment of effectiveness of new technologies and their policy measures taking lead time into account
技術を中心とした2020年シナリオと需要変化を組合せた2050年シナリオ8
9
Well to (Charge) Tank(Charge) Tank to Wheel
Well to Wheel
The Well to Wheel approach to assess total efficiency
Primary energyWell
Fuel tank(Charge) Tank
DriveWheel
Survey and assessment of automotive technology
G (10~30%) G (~5%) D (~5%)
G (5~10%) G, D (30~100%)
variable valve
HybridCVT
High pressure injection
Survey of technical informationEnvironment Option Database
車両要素技術と燃料調達経路を考慮した自動車技術の評価
10Motor drive
fossil fuel supplyEngine drive
combination
Combination of fuel supply and power-train
Hydrogen station
Charging station
CNG station
Construction of energy stations are required
Petrol station
Drive wheel
Fuel cellReformer
engine power generation
Battery
(CNG vehicles)
Fuel tank
or
Fuel cell Hydrogen tank
Long charging time
Fuel cell vehicles
Electric vehicles
Drive wheelElectric power
Parallel hybrid vehicles
Gasoline / Diesel vehicles
Series hybrid vehicles
Automotive technologies altering engine-drive vehicles
Plug-in hybrid vehicles
自動車は電動へ
11
Paths from primary energy to automotive energy
On-site water electrolysis
H2
hydrogen
electricity
Liquid fuel(traditional
fuel, synfuel)
gas(consumer)
CNG On site reformer
Automotive energy
biomass
Renewable energyElectric transmission
Power generation
transport Fossil fuel
transport nuclear power
refinery
reformer
transport
Primary energy
pipeline
Water electrolysis
hydrogen station
Charging station
CNG station
Petrol station
harvesting, transport
Construction of energy stations are required
多様なパスがありうる
Well to wheel CO2 emissions
JHFC(2007)
• Although CO2 emissions from FCEV are less than HV, FCEV has got problems to be solved such as FC durability, FCEV cost and the way to produce and supply hydrogen. Therefore, wide spread of HVs is thought to be one of the feasible and effective measures in 2020.
Biomass
排出係数が少ない燃料電池車やバイオ燃料車は、費用と量の確保等に課題12
13
0
100
200
300
400
500
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
HEV production capacity
The duplation of production capacity is required every year from 2005 to 2010.
450 = most of the domestic passenger car production
2004HV(World) 17Prius(World) 13Prius(Japan) 7
(ten-thousand vehicles/year)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
Emission(Mt-CO2)
air/rail/water
LDVs(HEV)
LDVs
Private HDVs
Commercial HDVs
Light freight vehicles
Light passenger cars
Buses
Passenger cars(HEV)
Passenger cars
BAU:+19%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
Emission(Mt-CO2)
air/rail/water
LDVs(HEV)
LDVs
Private HDVs
Commercial HDVs
Light freight vehicles
Light passenger cars(BEV)
Light passenger cars
Buses
Passenger cars(HEV)
Passenger cars
HEV:±0%
HEV scenario
±0%
Baseline scenario
CO2 emissions (Mt-CO2)
Scenario: Penetration of Hybrid Electric Vehicles(HEV)
CO2 emissions reduced by 45% by hybridization.
(初期版)ハイブリッド車の大量普及で2020年+19%を±0%に
+19%
14
HEV production capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
The 20% increase of production capacity forJapan is required every year from 2006 to 2020.
350 = most of the domesticpassenger car production
(ten-thousand vehicles/year)
Toyota HEV world production20(2005)→100(-2015)
primary scenario
Emission(Mt-CO2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
air/rail/water
LDVs(HEV)
LDVs
Private HDVs
Commercial HDVs
Light freight vehicles
Light passenger cars
Buses
Passenger cars(HEV)
Passenger cars
BAU:+8% Emission(Mt-CO2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
air/rail/water
LDVs(HEV)
LDVs
Private HDVs
Commercial HDVs
Light freight vehicles
Light passenger cars(BEV)
Light passenger cars
Buses
Passenger cars(HEV)
Passenger cars
HEV:-3%
HEV scenario
-3%
Baseline scenario
CO2 emissions (Mt-CO2)
+8%
Revised Scenario: Penetration of Hybrid Electric Vehicles(HEV)
(改訂版)ハイブリッド車の大量普及で2020年+8%を-3%に
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2020(primary) 2020(revised)
Mt-CO2 BaU HV HV+DM研究期間中に2020年シナリオを更新した。BAUの将来交通量は約1割減となり、対策のハイブリッド車普及率を約80→40%に
した。時計が進む一方で達成可能性は向上した。
15
Outline of 2020 scenariosScenario BaselineBaseline HEVHEV +Demand +Demand
ManagementManagementPenetration of HEVs and BEVs
Pass. Car (PC) HEVs 20%Low duty vehicle (LDV) HEVs 10%
PC- HEVs 37%LDV-HEVs 20%Light PC-BEVs 37%
Fuel consumption of HEVs
40% reduction compared with the current fuel consumption of gasoline / diesel vehicles. LDV-HEV reduce 20% of fuel consumption of current LDV’s)
Improvement of fuel consumption(to 2002)
PCs, buses, LDVs reduce 10% of fuel.
PCs 20%, Buses 10%, Mini car 10%, Heavy duty vehicles 5%, LDVs15%
Traffic volume(to 2002)
3% decrease of PCs7% decrease of freight vehicles (FVs)
PCs -13%FVs -16%
Air, rail, marine transport
5% reduction of fuel consumption of air, rail and marine transport. Air transportation increase by 20% compared with current volume.
CO2 emissions(compared to 1990)
+8% -3% -10%
さらに交通需要管理により-10%へ
16
Contents
1. Facts and trends in Japanese transport(日本の現状)
2. 2020 Transport Scenarios: Technologies (2020交通シナリオ:技術)
3. 2050 Transport Visions: Combination(2050交通ビジョン:組合せ)
4. Conclusion(まとめ)
17
Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20% each could cause over 70% reduction as total
Demand management e.g. by information-
communication technology[transport-service per capita]
Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km
per transport-service]
Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF per passenger-km or ton-km
Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]
Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuel
consumption]
∑ ⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛××××=
Mode FuelEF
VkmFuel
TkmPkmVkm
TransServTkmkmP
capitaTransServ
capita22 CO
)()(CO
(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26
対策を組み合わせることで大きな削減が可能
18
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions
Each Area is categorized in1. Major cities2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million6. Counties
Accumulated population [million]CO2 per capita
[t/year]
Tokyo Met.
Osaka Met.
Nagoya Met.
Other Areas
Passenger car emissions (t-CO2/capita)
Freight vehicles
Passenger cars
都市部の一人当たり排出量は半分
19
Regional categories
Index of the regional categories
Rural
Urban
MetroProvincial
地域別の対策と人口減少パターン
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000Accumulated population [ten - thousand]
Metro Urban
Transport CO2 [t/capita/year]
1990
2050
Metr
o S
ubu
rb
Pro
vincia
l U
rban
Pro
vincia
l R
ura
l
Technological& behavioural
countermeasures
Depopulation & shift from
rural to urban
20
CO2 emissions of each vehicle category by trip length ranges
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1-2km
3-9km
10-29km
30-99km
100-299km
300-999km
1,000km-
Special motor vehicles
Heavy Duty Vehicles
Light Duty Vehicles
Light freight vehicles
Buses
Passenger cars
Light passenger cars
Ranges of trip length
t-CO2/day
(Estimated from Road Census 1999)乗用車は短距離
21
Effects of population density on life cycle CO2 of various transit system
LRT (Light Rail Transit)・BRT (Bus Rapid Transit)・AGT (Automated Guideway Transit)・GWB (Guideway Bus)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
DID人口密度(人/km2)
輸送
人km
あた
りSyLC
-CO
2(g-C
O 2/人
km)
AGT
モノレール
GWB
BRT(20km/h以下)BRT(20km/h以上)
LRT(20km/h以下)
LRT(20km/h以上)
自動車(全国平均値)
バス(走行のみ)
鉄道(走行のみ)
鉄道(新規整備)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
DID人口密度(人/km2)
輸送
人km
あた
りSyLC
-CO
2(g-C
O 2/人
km)
AGT
モノレール
GWB
BRT(20km/h以下)BRT(20km/h以上)
LRT(20km/h以下)
LRT(20km/h以上)
自動車(全国平均値)
バス(走行のみ)
鉄道(走行のみ)
鉄道(新規整備)
Monorail(under 20km/h)
(over 20km/h)
Population density in DID(Densely Inhabitant District) [pop./km2]
(under 20km/h)
(over 20km/h)
Sys
tem
Life
Cyc
leC
O2
[g-C
O2/pas
senge
r-km
]
Railway(running only)
Railway(Life cycle)
Bus(running only)
Passenger car(running only)
LRT
LRT
BRTBRT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
DID人口密度(人/km2)
輸送
人km
あた
りSyLC
-CO
2(g-C
O 2/人
km)
AGT
モノレール
GWB
BRT(20km/h以下)BRT(20km/h以上)
LRT(20km/h以下)
LRT(20km/h以上)
自動車(全国平均値)
バス(走行のみ)
鉄道(走行のみ)
鉄道(新規整備)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
DID人口密度(人/km2)
輸送
人km
あた
りSyLC
-CO
2(g-C
O 2/人
km)
AGT
モノレール
GWB
BRT(20km/h以下)BRT(20km/h以上)
LRT(20km/h以下)
LRT(20km/h以上)
自動車(全国平均値)
バス(走行のみ)
鉄道(走行のみ)
鉄道(新規整備)
Monorail(under 20km/h)
(over 20km/h)
Population density in DID(Densely Inhabitant District) [pop./km2]
(under 20km/h)
(over 20km/h)
Sys
tem
Life
Cyc
leC
O2
[g-C
O2/pas
senge
r-km
]
Railway(running only)
Railway(Life cycle)
Bus(running only)
Passenger car(running only)
LRT
LRT
BRTBRT
S-3-5(2007)Summary Report of Research Results under the GERFDIDではLRTが有効
22
TOD (Transit Oriented Development) in local city
• Lack of public transport for cities of less population than one millions.
• It has been difficult to manage LRT because “self-supporting accounting system” was required.
• Upgrading from traditional tram has started.
Toyama Light Rail(2006.4.26-)
地方中核都市等の都市計画と公共インフラ整備が重要
the Segway Human Transporter
New concepts for personal mobility
Toyota i-REAL
Kawamura cycle KE Yamato transport/ Electric bicycle with a cart
電池搭載は小型近距離に適性
個人利用の軽量電動車両にも大きな可能性がある (catalog information)2323
24
Residential area
along LRT lines
Intensive land use
Networking of proper modes on each areas
Enhance public transport and walking
LRT
Central area for pedestrians
Car-sharing
Daily living area Agricultural community
Mini EVPersonal mobility
Ring road
Shopping center
Shared taxi
Bicycle
P&R
Farm, green
Farm, green
土地利用と交通の計画が重要
Image of low carbon transport area
Roadmap to reduce regional CO2 of passenger transport(Nagoya Univ.)
導入可能で導入可能でCOCO22排出が最小となる幹線輸送機関の分布排出が最小となる幹線輸送機関の分布
0 400km交通体系(現状)
既存路線活用+鉄道・AGT・モノレール整備LRT整備+既存路線活用LRT・BRT整備+既存路線活用既存路線活用中心+LRT・BRT整備自動車共存
2000年 0 400km交通体系(2050年)
鉄道・AGT・モノレールLRTLRT・BRT既存路線+LRT・BRT自動車
2050年
2050年は、2000年に対する人口減少率がDID地区と非DID人口地区で同じとした場合
路線維持不可能かつ既存路線がない所では自動車がCO2排出が一番小さい。
このような地域が2050年には全国に広がる。
DID人口密度を維持・上昇させる土地利用施策や
交通事業者への補助金投入(道路特定財源の見直し?)等の地域に応じた施策パッケージが必要
DIDDID人口密度を維持・上昇させる人口密度を維持・上昇させる土地利用施策土地利用施策やや
交通事業者への補助金投入(道路特定財源の見直し?)交通事業者への補助金投入(道路特定財源の見直し?)等の等の地域に応じた施策パッケージ地域に応じた施策パッケージが必要が必要
職住近接都市構築施策パッケージ職住近接都市構築施策パッケージ職住近接都市構築施策パッケージ
自動車依存脱却施策パッケージ自動車依存脱却施策パッケージ自動車依存脱却施策パッケージ
公共交通志向維持・強化施策パッケージ公共交通志向維持・強化施策パッケージ公共交通志向維持・強化施策パッケージ
地域に応じた施策パッケージでCO2削減25
26
2050Vision: Passenger transportMetro
Urban
Metro
Suburb
Provincial
Urban
Provincial
Rural
Total
Compact neighborhood
△Rehabilitation
○Rehabilitation
△Rehabilitation
○Compact
Settlement
Compact city △City center
renewal
△Withdrawal △City center
renewal
×
Enhance public transit
△Pricing △Park &
Ride etc.
○LRT △van pool,
shared taxi
Improve load efficiency
△Utilize small vehicles △Enhance
sharing
×
Improve fuel consumption
◎Urban
mode
○local mode
Low carbon energy
△less room
for improve
○biofuel, Low Carbon Electricity for EV
and PHEV etc.
112->33Mt
To 1990
- 70%Including (Inter-city Passenger:30km-)
Index:
◎: - 30%
○: - 20%
△: - 10%
×: no room
pop(million) 46→40 15→12 27→20 35→23 124→94
t-CO2/capita 0.66→0.27 0.94→0.35 1.03→0.38 1.11→0.51 0.90→0.35
2050年の70%削減に向けたビジョンの例
27
Inter-local Freight:
300km-
Inter-city Freight:
30-300km
Inner-city Freight:
-30km
(Inter-city Passenger:30km-)
Total
Supply Chain Management
○SCM △SCM
Compact city ○Short route △~× Enhance modal shift
106->32Mt
To 1990
- 70%Excluding (Inter-city Passenger: 30km-)
Index:
◎: - 30%
○: - 20%
△: - 10%
×: no room
Enhance public transit
○Marine
transport, Rail
△Rail △Hand cart ◎Rail,
Expressway bus
Improve load efficiency
△Low
delivery frequency
△Cooperative
delivery
○Cooperative
delivery
○Car pooling
Improve fuel consumption
○ITS, Fuel-
efficient truck
◎ITS, Fuel-
efficient truck
○ITS, Fuel-
efficient truck
◎ITS, Fuel-
efficient car
Low carbon energy
△biofuel ○biofuel, PHEV
etc.
Mt-CO2 33→10 49→15 24→7 (35→10)
2050Vision: Freight and inter-city passenger transport
2050年の70%削減に向けたビジョンの例
28
Uncertain issues for 2050 Vision
• Globalization / Regionalism• Demography : aging society• Immigration / Emigration• Spatial distribution of population• Leading industries• Busier life driven by IT vs. slow life• Demand for high speed travel • Trip frequency and length for leisure• Price of fossil fuels (especially oil)• The way to produce and supply hydrogen • Public perceptions for nuclear technology• Price of FCEVs• Preferences on vehicle-size• Investment balance between road and public transport
さまざまな不確実性がある
29
Gasoline price and consumption
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250
Price of Gasoline(value in 2000, Yen/liter )
Gas
olin
e c
onsu
mpt
ion(lit
er/
pers
on)
2006
1991
1975
1999
1983
Price and consumption of gasoline for passenger car
Total expenses for gasoline per person was stable at 30-40 thousand yen from 1975 to 1999. Cheap price have cause large increase of car-usage in 90’s. Higher gasoline price may cause large decrease of gasoline consumption in next decade.
中長期的にはガソリン価格の変化に対する反応が大きく出る可能性がある
30
Contents
1. Facts and trends in Japanese transport(日本の現状)
2. 2020 Transport Scenarios: Technologies (2020交通シナリオ:技術)
3. 2050 Transport Visions: Combination(2050交通ビジョン:組合せ)
4. Conclusion(まとめ)
31
LCS2050: a draft vision2050Vision: Policy recommendations
2050年70%削減ビジョン達成に向けた政策の例
Metro
Urban
Metro
Suburb
Provincial
Urban
Provincial
Rural
Total
Compact neighborhood
△Rehabilitation
○Rehabilitation
△Rehabilitation
○Compact
Settlement
Compact city △City center
renewal
△Withdrawal △City center
renewal
×
Enhance public transit
△Pricing △Park &
Ride etc.
○LRT △van pool,
shared taxi
Improve load efficiency
△Utilize small vehicles △Enhance
sharing
×
Improve fuel consumption
◎Urban
mode
○local mode
Low carbon energy
△less room
for improve
○biofuel, Low Carbon Electricity for EV
and PHEV etc.
112->33Mt
To 1990
- 70%Including (Inter-city Passenger:30km-)
Index:
◎: - 30%
○: - 20%
△: - 10%
×: no room
pop(million) 46→40 15→12 27→20 35→23 124→94
t-CO2/capita 0.66→0.27 0.94→0.35 1.03→0.38 1.11→0.51 0.90→0.35
Renewal Preferential tax treatments
Redevelopment
Infrastructure, SubsidyApprove
shared taxi
Regulation of fuel consumptionPrefential tax treatments
Setting goals for Engineering developmentsProvision of infrastructures
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Conclusion
• Opportunities for low-carbon transport: – Penetrating HEV for 2020– Combination of various countermeasures for 2050
• Best practice examples – More hybrid on the market – Increasing support for public transit (e.g. LRT)
• Linkages with other policy goals– Sound public finance in depopulating society– Accessibility for transportation poor in rural areas
• Policy recommendations– Preferential tax treatments– Regional plan of land-use and transport
ハイブリッド自動車を生かしつつ公共交通と軽量なパーソナルモビリティの組合せへ人口減少等への対応とあわせて、低炭素化に向けた計画と税制誘導による推進が重要