Chapter 7Chapter 7Managing Emerging Managing Emerging
TechnologiesTechnologies
Paula GouldingPaula Goulding
Chapter OutlineChapter Outline
Importance of understanding emerging Importance of understanding emerging technologiestechnologies
Should organization be pioneer, leader, or Should organization be pioneer, leader, or followerfollower
Best time to adopt new technologyBest time to adopt new technology How to introduce and appropriate apply new How to introduce and appropriate apply new
technologytechnology
Technology Life CycleTechnology Life Cycle
Emerging TechnologyEmerging Technology– Technology considered innovationTechnology considered innovation– Still developing in capability/capacityStill developing in capability/capacity
Pacing Technology Pacing Technology – Technology is growing in acceptanceTechnology is growing in acceptance
Key TechnologyKey Technology– Provides competitive differentialProvides competitive differential
Base TechnologyBase Technology– Final phase of life cycleFinal phase of life cycle– Required technologyRequired technology
Adoption of TechnologyAdoption of Technology Innovators Innovators (Technology enthusiasts)(Technology enthusiasts)
– Willing to take higher risksWilling to take higher risks
Early Adopters Early Adopters (Visionaries)(Visionaries)– More visionaryMore visionary
Early Majority Early Majority (Pragmatists)(Pragmatists)– Wait for more assurance for success of technologyWait for more assurance for success of technology
Late Majority Late Majority (Conservatives)(Conservatives)– Must adopt technology to stay currentMust adopt technology to stay current
Laggards Laggards (Skeptics)(Skeptics)– True skeptics; must adopt to stay in the marketTrue skeptics; must adopt to stay in the market
Moore’s Product Provider View of Moore’s Product Provider View of Technology InnovationTechnology Innovation
Early MarketEarly Market– Look to be first with new Look to be first with new
paradigmparadigm
ChasmChasm– Early market interest Early market interest
waneswanes
Bowling AlleyBowling Alley– Niche-based adoption in Niche-based adoption in
advance of general advance of general marketplacemarketplace
TornadoTornado– Mass-market adoptionMass-market adoption
Main StreetMain Street– Aftermarket developmentAftermarket development– Flesh out potentialFlesh out potential
End of LifeEnd of Life– Ignored and presumed in Ignored and presumed in
original modeloriginal model– Enable new paradigms Enable new paradigms
to come to marketto come to market
Implications of Not Keeping Pace with Technology
Loss of competitive edge,
58%
Increased cost of production, 16%
W ould not be in business, 13%
Other, 3%
Lack of control in running the
business, 7%
W ould not happen, 3%
Strategies for Technology DevelopmentStrategies for Technology Development
Diffusion CurveDiffusion Curve
Managing ChangeManaging Change
Learning S-CurveLearning S-Curve
Three Strategic PosturesThree Strategic Postures
Shape the futureShape the future– Play leadership role in establishing how industry Play leadership role in establishing how industry
operatesoperates Adopt to the futureAdopt to the future
– Recognizing and capturing opportunities in Recognizing and capturing opportunities in existing marketsexisting markets
Reserve right to playReserve right to play– Invest sufficiently to stay in the gameInvest sufficiently to stay in the game– Avoid premature commitmentsAvoid premature commitments
Innovations Influence on Rate of AdoptionInnovations Influence on Rate of Adoption
Relative AdvantageRelative Advantage– Considers degree innovation is perceived to be betterConsiders degree innovation is perceived to be better
CompatibilityCompatibility– Higher level of compatibility with values and needsHigher level of compatibility with values and needs
ComplexityComplexity– If difficult to learn, use, or implement will slow rateIf difficult to learn, use, or implement will slow rate
TrialabilityTrialability– If easily experimental, will have better adoption chanceIf easily experimental, will have better adoption chance
ObservabilityObservability– Degree to which innovation can be seenDegree to which innovation can be seen
Increasing Returns of AdoptionIncreasing Returns of Adoption
Learning by usingLearning by using– Increase in benefits technology brings as Increase in benefits technology brings as
adopters gain experience and knowledgeadopters gain experience and knowledge Positive network externalitiesPositive network externalities
– Greater the number of users, greater the benefitGreater the number of users, greater the benefit Technological interrelatednessTechnological interrelatedness
– Existence of compatible products that will Existence of compatible products that will increase larger base of adoptersincrease larger base of adopters
Characteristics of Early AdoptersCharacteristics of Early Adopters
Ability to amortize costs of learningAbility to amortize costs of learning Ability to acquire any given amount of new Ability to acquire any given amount of new
knowledge with less effortknowledge with less effort Higher level of initial knowledge about given Higher level of initial knowledge about given
technologytechnology
Assimilation GapAssimilation Gap
Source: Fichman, Robert G., Kemerer, Chris F. The Illusory Diffusion of Innovation: An Examination of Assimilation Gaps , Information Systems Research, Vol. 10, No. 3, September 1999.
Identifying Emerging TechnologiesIdentifying Emerging Technologies
What Can Happen?What Can Happen?– Keep abreast of technologies being developedKeep abreast of technologies being developed
What Will Happen?What Will Happen?– Engineering hurdles may existEngineering hurdles may exist
What Should Happen?What Should Happen?– Consideration of social, political, and ethical Consideration of social, political, and ethical
issuesissues How Will It Happen?How Will It Happen?
– R&D may envision product differently than actual R&D may envision product differently than actual application of itapplication of it
Inhibitors to Emerging TechnologyInhibitors to Emerging Technology
Delayed participationDelayed participation Sticking with the familiarSticking with the familiar Reluctance to fully commitReluctance to fully commit Lack of persistenceLack of persistence
Human Resource ConsiderationsHuman Resource Considerations Availability of TalentAvailability of Talent
– Best personnel to evaluate technologyBest personnel to evaluate technology Resource AllocationResource Allocation
– Dedicated resources for evaluation and Dedicated resources for evaluation and implementationimplementation
MotivationMotivation– Project failure/success is a possibilityProject failure/success is a possibility
Knowledge ManagementKnowledge Management– Sharing of lessons learnedSharing of lessons learned– Utilize outside consultantsUtilize outside consultants– Protect new knowledge for competitive advantageProtect new knowledge for competitive advantage
Technology ScanningTechnology Scanning Keeping abreast of developments in technologyKeeping abreast of developments in technology
– Books and PeriodicalsBooks and Periodicals
– Formal StudiesFormal Studies
– Personal ContactsPersonal Contacts
– Professional Organizations/Workshops/ConventionsProfessional Organizations/Workshops/Conventions
– R & D OrganizationsR & D Organizations
– State and Federal DepartmentsState and Federal Departments
– UniversitiesUniversities
– Vendors and ConsultantsVendors and Consultants
– Early AdoptersEarly Adopters
Factors for Successful IntroductionFactors for Successful Introduction
1.1. Identify problem and opportunity that Identify problem and opportunity that technology addressestechnology addresses
2.2. Identify and empower a championIdentify and empower a champion
3.3. Create cross-functional, dedicated, Create cross-functional, dedicated, accountable teamaccountable team
4.4. Build supportive environment for introduction Build supportive environment for introduction of technologyof technology
5.5. Identify and address associated risksIdentify and address associated risks
6.6. Manage the projectManage the project
Technology Assessment ProcessTechnology Assessment Process
1.1. ScopingScoping• Establish scope/domain of technology searchEstablish scope/domain of technology search
2.2. SearchingSearching• Screen technologiesScreen technologies• Search for signs/viability of emerging technologySearch for signs/viability of emerging technology
3.3. EvaluatingEvaluating• Identify/prioritize technologiesIdentify/prioritize technologies• Evaluate based on abilities, needs, competitive Evaluate based on abilities, needs, competitive
opportunitiesopportunities
4.4. CommittingCommitting• How it should be pursued and implementedHow it should be pursued and implemented
Selling Technology to Senior ExecutivesSelling Technology to Senior Executives
Sell business solutionSell business solution Identify value to Identify value to
organizationorganization Compare new to Compare new to
existing technologiesexisting technologies Consider range of Consider range of
alternativesalternatives Create champions Create champions
throughout organizationthroughout organization
Manage expectationsManage expectations Start small to mitigate Start small to mitigate
risksrisks Look to other industries Look to other industries
for changesfor changes Understand Understand
iterative/evolutionary iterative/evolutionary naturenature
UnderpromiseUnderpromise Be honestBe honest
Prioritize and FocusPrioritize and Focus
Prototype, demo, and show usersPrototype, demo, and show users Be intimate with business driversBe intimate with business drivers Understand business requirementsUnderstand business requirements Highlight benefitsHighlight benefits Weigh risksWeigh risks Identify those that enable new businessIdentify those that enable new business
Prioritize and FocusPrioritize and Focus
Identify those that are easily integratedIdentify those that are easily integrated Measure risks and ability to absorb Measure risks and ability to absorb
failure/successfailure/success Understand organizational cultureUnderstand organizational culture Set aside money for changesSet aside money for changes
Developing the Business CaseDeveloping the Business Case
Identify business needIdentify business need How does it fit in current prioritiesHow does it fit in current priorities Identify areas to be impactedIdentify areas to be impacted Benefits to/impact on bottom lineBenefits to/impact on bottom line Competitive landscapeCompetitive landscape Identify assumptions and justifyIdentify assumptions and justify
Developing the Business CaseDeveloping the Business Case
Utilize proof of concepts/prototypeUtilize proof of concepts/prototype Add validity to proof of conceptAdd validity to proof of concept Evaluate implementation optionsEvaluate implementation options Evaluate fitEvaluate fit FeedbackFeedback Identify project championIdentify project champion
When to Deploy Emerging TechnologiesWhen to Deploy Emerging Technologies
Look at industry trendsLook at industry trends BenchmarkBenchmark Evaluate when risk of not doing it is greater Evaluate when risk of not doing it is greater
than doing itthan doing it Pilot technology to validate proof of Pilot technology to validate proof of
concept/directionconcept/direction Utilize outside consultants to evaluateUtilize outside consultants to evaluate
Lessons from the PastLessons from the Past
Expert predictions are fallibleExpert predictions are fallible Timing is relevantTiming is relevant Iterate and review frequentlyIterate and review frequently Which new technologies become adopted is Which new technologies become adopted is
hard to predicthard to predict Consequences of adoptions take long time Consequences of adoptions take long time
to become evidentto become evident
Laws of TechnologyLaws of Technology
Bigger Computers Are BetterBigger Computers Are Better– Grosch’s LawGrosch’s Law
Smaller Computers Are BetterSmaller Computers Are Better– MooreMoore
Connected Computers Are BetterConnected Computers Are Better– MetcalfeMetcalfe
Machines May Leap, but Programs CreepMachines May Leap, but Programs Creep– WirthWirth
Networks Will Triple Every YearNetworks Will Triple Every Year– GilderGilder