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DNB Nordic Technology
Anders Tandberg-Johansen
September 2014
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DNB Nor
dic T
echn
ology
ISI L
atin
Amer
ica
Aberd
een
Glob
al Asia
n Sm
all C
ap
Fonds
finan
s Spa
r
Lann
ebo
Småb
olag
Fidelity
Fun
ds T
haila
nd
Alfred
ber
g G
amba
k
Skage
n Kon
-Tiki
Hande
lsban
ken
Lat-A
m
ACMBer
nste
in In
dia G
rowth
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
432%400%
389% 384% 376% 367% 367% 358% 357% 356%
Best av total 10.535 fond målt over de siste 10 år
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Best av alle globale teknologifond siste ti år
Årlig avkastning siste ti år - globale
teknologifond
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
17.6 %
10.0 %9.2 %
8.6 %7.9 % 7.9 %
6.4 % 6.3 % 6.0 % 5.9 %
100.000 investert for ti år siden:
DNB Nordic Tech: 431.500 i
dag
Nest best: 235.800 i
dag
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Apropos ti års historikk
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9. Januar 2007:
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66
Ett år
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7
Teknologi skaper store vinnere og tapere
7777
To år
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8
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Før Nå
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Før Nå
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Før Nå
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Før Nå
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Før Nå
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Før Nå
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Seks viktige megatrender
Betaling blir mobilbasertGigantenes kamp om din TV
Reklame går digitalt og mobiltInternet of things – Big Data
Tjenester flyttes til skyenInternett for alle
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000 Global Population
Internet Population
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Hva ser vi etter ved aksjevalg?
Verdsettelse MomentumVerdiskapningTema
Idealsituasjon: - Godt posisjonert i megatrend- Høye inngangsbarrierer/nettverkseffekter- Bra ledelse med fokus på aksjonærverdier- Lav verdivurdering- Kontinuerlige estimatoppgraderinger
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Godt posisjonert i alle megatrender
YouTube Google Maps Google Chrome/OS
Google mobile search Android Google TV
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Selvkjørende biler Google glasses
«Connected home» Roboter
GoogleNye tilsynelatende “crazy” forretningsideer
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Hotellreservasjon
Metasearch
ExpediaDuopolist i “Online travel” – betydelig potensial for marginvekst
Priceline Expedia
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0 8.2
2.0
EV/Sales
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22012 2013 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Booking-vekstExpedia Priceline
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eBayDominerende på online betaling
Aktive PayPal brukere (mill)
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
15% CAGR
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500Antall transaksjoner (mill)
28% CAGR
Online kjøpesenter
Sikker betaling på nett og mobil
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Samsung Markedsleder i mobil and mobilt minne – PE 6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015e0
100
200
300
400
500
Samsung smartphone sales (mill units)
51%
25%
22% 1%
Global Mobile Memory Market Share
Samsung
Hynix
Micron
Other
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Source: Bloomberg (cash adjusted with 20% effective tax rate)
Samsu
ng
Cisco
Netge
ar
Hewle
tt-Pac
kard
Oracle
Apple
JDS U
niph
ase
EBAY
Googl
eCitr
ix
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
5.9
8.8
10.5 10.7 11.312.1 12.4
15.5 16.1
17.8
Fina
ncia
ls
Energ
y
Tele
com
mun
icatio
n Ser
vices
MSCI W
ORLD
Indu
stria
ls
Mat
eria
l
Utilitie
s
Consu
mer
Disc
retio
nary
Info
rmat
ion
Tech
nolo
gy
Health
Car
e
Consu
mer
Sta
ples
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
13.714.9
15.9 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.517.2 17.4
18.2 18.6
PE PE
Forventet 2015 PE – Industrigruppe Cash justert 2015 PE – «tradisjonell» teknologi
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Stort og bredt investeringsunivers
AppleMicrosoftGoogleIBMAT&TVodafone
VerizonCiscoOracleQualcommIntelDisney
Største selskaper i TMT 20% av MSCI World
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25
Teknologi har slått det brede markedet over tid
3/1/1990 3/1/2002 3/1/2014
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Nasdaq 100 S&P 500
Årlig avkastning siden 1990:
Nasdaq : 14.0%S&P : 10.4%
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DNB Nordic Technology
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Avis
Fjernsyn
Fjernsyn ungdom
Radio
Bøker
Internett
30%!
Ungdom bruker nå mer tid på internett enn tradisjonell TV
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Print Radio TV Internet Mobil0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Tid bruktReklameandel
Reklameandel vs tid brukt per media