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TO2020 :maritime technology uptake
Mature an e ergi g cono ies i l be m increasingly
dissimilar i t rms f em g aph and de lopment as
the worl o ulati n appr ches .5 illi in total by
0. world t more reso ce e lifestyles
and incre ed po ul tion, d man for r ti e transport
is bound to gr . e worl flee il t e to expand,
but dem wi ary a ng r g o s nd hip types.
As the industr fac r r to offer moresustainabl r ort so u on , s ps with improved
ntal, saf y an u i y performance will
TECHNOLOGY UPT KE:
be needed. T l r m e focus on developing
an m l ntin n i t chnical and operational
utio , i ntion to achieving greater
erf a ce and energy efficiency.
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CONTENTS
The low energy ship 30
Which technological developments in materials
science, drag reduction, and propulsion will contri-
bute towards the development of new low energy
ship concepts needed in 2020?
The green-fuelled ship 32
Environmental regulations and rising bunker oil prices
could make natural gas and biofuel blends viablesolutions. But what about wind and nuclear as possible
energy sources for shipping?
The electric ship 34
Hybrid electric ship concepts, incorporating many types
of renewable energy sources, will be implemented on
specialised ships. Will cold ironing, marine fuel cells, and
high temperature superconductors also take off?
The digital ship 36
E-navigation solutions will be widely used to enhance
safety and to optimise operations with respect tosecurity, economy, and environmental performance. But
which are the key technologies?
The Arctic ship 38
With the prospect of ice-free summers in the Arctic,
ship traffic in that region is set to increase. Which novel
systems and software, not to mention new types of
vessels, will Arctic shipping demand?
The virtual ship 40
Advanced, model-based techniques for assessing
technical and economic performance of a ship from
a lifecycle perspective enable better management of
the complexity and uncertainties related to design.
How can these be achieved?
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TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE30 MARITIME
AIR BUBBLE LUBRICATION AIR CAVITY SYSTEMS
Visualisation of an installed air-bubble injection system.Source: DNV
Illustration of the P-MAXair cavity ship by STENA.Source: STENA
AIR BUBBLE LUBRICATIONAlthough the wave-makingresistance of ships can be minimisedby careful hull design, friction dragis more important for large, slowspeed, commercial ships.
Air bubble lubrication systems arebased on the powered injectionof air beneath the ship. Severalsmall holes on the hulls bottomare used for injection of micro airbubbles into the flow stream. Byinterfering with the generation ofvortices, the transition to the highlydissipative turbulent flow regime,
which typically occurs around thehull, is delayed. Friction drag isreduced due to the lower frictionforces associated with laminar flow,compared with turbulent flow.
Uncertainties in the physicalmechanisms, and the scaling andtechnical feasibility of this system,need to be solved by 2020. Inparticular, the potentially negativeinteractions of the dispersedbubbles with the propeller must beeliminated.
AIR CAVITY SYSTEMS
The injection of air beneath aships hull can have an alternativeembodiment, but one that alsoresults in friction drag forces beingdecreased.
In air cavity systems, largeindentations are opened on thehulls bottom. Compressed air ispumped in to fill the void spaceand establish a continuous aircavity. The steel-seawater interfaceis thus replaced by a more slippery
air-seawater interface, effectively
reducing the hulls wetted surfaceand thereby the friction forces. Adecrease in fuel consumption ofaround 10 % is possible. As air willinevitably escape from the cavity, ithas to be continuously replaced.
Negative side-effects include thegeneration of a destabilizing freesurface under the hull. Energy willbe lost, both by the formation ofgravity waves on this free surfaceand by dispersion of bubbles into
the propeller inflow.
INTRODUCTIONThe main triggers for innovation are market forces, technologicaladvances, safety considerations, and regulatory changes. Presently,rising fuel prices, market uncertainties, intense competition,climate change, and societal pressures for greening are driving theintroduction of new technologies and concepts into the world fleettowards 2020. Multifunctional ship types and/or technologicaladvances in drag reduction, propulsion, and materials herald newship concepts. These are not necessarily new ship types, but offerinnovative solutions to newly posed problems in ship design.
Novel technologies and demanding objectives regarding emissions,efficiency, strength, and speed or cargo flexibility, necessitateholistic designs and use of risk-based methods. In order to managethe complexity and risk inherent in new solutions, large-scaledemonstrators are needed, as well as advanced, model-basedtechniques.
the low energy ship
attacking energy lossesHIGH BUNKER COSTS, new market realities, the cross-
industrial focus on the environment, along with stricter
regulations regarding emissions and ballast water,
will result in radical changes in ships. Technological
developments in materials science, drag reduction,
propulsion, and energy efficiency, will provide the
basis for the key specifications of new ship concepts.
The applicability of different, new concepts needs to
be considered for each ship type, based on technical
and economic assessment. New concepts could play
important roles for all vessel types.
10-20%drag reduction is possible
with air injection systemsby 2020.
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HYBRID MATERIALS HYBRID PROPULSORS
Composite sandwich construction made of GLARE-skinsand honeycomb core. Source: NASA
A multi-component Azipod installation.Source: ABB
BALL
ASTW
ATER
FREE
SHIPS
HYBRID
PROPUL
SORS
HYBRID
MATERIALS
AIRCAVITY
SYSTEM
S
AIRBU
BBLE
LUBRICATION
Learning fromthe aviation industry -
hybrid materialswill save weight and energy.
TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE IN EACH SCENARIO
HYBRID MATERIALSReducing the weight of a ships hullcan decrease emissions and savefuel. Lightweight materials are usedin smaller vessels and secondarystructures, e.g. fibre reinforcedplastics, aluminium, and titanium.
Hybrid materials can be formedfrom multiple layers of metal sheetsand piles of polymer compositelaminates. Fibre-metal laminatescombine the qualities of metals(high impact resistance, durability,flexible manufacturing) with thoseof composites (high strength and
stiffness to weight ratio, good
resistance to fatigue and corrosion).The metal layers can be of eitheraluminium or steel plates, whereasthe polymer core can be reinforcedwith carbon or glass fibres. Theapplication of these materialsin the aeronautical industry andin specialised ships provides anopening for introducing thesematerials into shipping. However,widespread adoption by 2020is unlikely. The main obstaclesinclude high costs, manufacturingand recycling challenges, and fireresistance issues.
HYBRID PROPULSORS
The high efficiency of the screwpropeller is restricted to one designspeed, large blades, 2-stroke dieselengines, and direct drive propulsion.
Hybrid propulsion concepts consistof combinations of shaft propellers,pods, and efficiency enhancingdevices, such as pre- and post-swirlfins. Hydrodynamic optimisationcan enable efficient arrangementsof a contra-rotating pod propellerbehind a main controllable pitch
propeller, and of a feathering centre-
line propeller with steerable sidepods. These systems capitaliseon the hydrodynamic advantagesof their components, while alsoextending the range of efficientoperation by utilising the optimumengine load.
Although design and manufacture ofhybrid propulsors are expensive, thistechnology is expected to providefuel savings up to 10 %, dependingon utilisation and ship types, e.g.
container or multipurpose ships.
BALLAST WATER FREE SHIPSBallast water ensures sufficient draft, strength, and stability whenships sail unloaded. However, when ballast water is dischargeduntreated, the marine ecosystem may be threatened with theintroduction of invasive species contained in the ballast water.
A trapezoidal hull with a transversely raked bottom can maintainsufficient stability and draft when unloaded, without requiringballast water. In order to achieve the displacement of standarddesigns, the breadth and length are increased. The bow and sternare now critical for regulating trim under all load states. Such shipsincorporate more steel, both due to their larger size and also toobtain sufficient strength under partial load conditions. Hybrids,with two small ballast tanks to aid the adjustment of trim, seempreferable.
Even after 2020, ships that do not use ballast water will be moreexpensive to build and have various construction challenges.Competing solutions include onboard treatment of ballast waterand in-port receiving facilities.
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TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE32
INTRODUCTIONImpending stricter environmental regulations that require thatthe emission levels of SOx, NOx, particulates are reduced, andprobably CO
2also, are pushing the maritime industry towards
using cleaner energy sources. Increases in bunker oil prices willprobably accelerate this transition.
Abatement technologies, such as exhaust gas recirculation,scrubbers, or catalytic reduction, can meet some of theseregulations, but typically CO
2emissions are increased. Alternatively,
LNG, biofuel blends, or more radical energy sources, like windor nuclear, could be exploited. The implementation of thesenew technologies could face significant technical and economicchallenges, and the time frame ranges from a few years for LNG,to decades for nuclear.
Large-scale demonstration projects, as well as model studies, areneeded to evaluate performance, and to ease implementation intothe fleet.
the green-fuelled ship
the beginning of the end of traditional fuelWITH SEA-TRANSPORT facing increasingly strict
environmental regulations, and with rising bunker
oil prices, natural gas, and renewables are being
considered as alternative energy sources. LNG, biofuel
blends, or more radical energy sources like wind or
nuclear, all have the potential to be exploited.
Adoption of LNG fuelling by a considerable share of
ships in short-sea shipping is expected over the next
decade, especially in Emissions Control Areas (ECAs).
NATURAL GASA switch to natural gas couldvirtually eliminate emissions of SOxand particulate matter, and NOxemissions could be reduced by 90 %in gas-fuelled, lean-burn, 4-strokeengines. Such engines are suitablefor cruise ships, smaller cargo andservice ships, and also for auxiliarypower. However, for slow speed,2-stroke engines that are typicalof larger commercial ships, NOxreductions are more modest.
Although natural gas combustioncan reduce CO
2emissions by up to
25 % compared with bunker oil,emissions of unburned methanerepresent a problem. Methane is21 times more potent greenhousegas (GHG) than CO
2. Depending
on engine type, the change in CO2-
equivalent emissions range froma reduction of 20 % up to a netincrease.
Engines fuelled by natural gas arewidely used for power generationand transport on land. One
challenge for shipping is that LNGtanks typically require 2 to 3 timesmore space than a diesel tank.Since natural gas must be storedeither liquefied or compressed,these storage tanks are alsomore expensive. Based on recentexperience, the new-build costof LNG-fuelled ships is about1020 % higher than for equivalentdiesel-fuelled ships.
Although LNG bunkering infra-structure is currently very limited, asignificant increase in the number
of bunkering terminals is expectedby 2020, especially within ECAs.Strict regulations on NOx and SOxemissions, combined with a morecompetitive gas price, will drive theuptake of gas as a marine fuel. It isanticipated that within 10 years aconsiderable share of new ships willhave natural gas fuelling, particularlyin short-sea shipping. It might alsobe expected that, in the comingyears, some ships are retrofitted torun on LNG.
MARITIME
SHIP EMISSIONS FUEL PRICES
It is anticipated that
within 10 yearsa considerable share ofnew ships will have naturalgas fuelling.
Indicative emission reduction potential from the use ofnatural gas in the fleet (Baltic). Source: IEA
Projected natural gas and crude oil prices in US$ (2008) permillion Btu. Source: EIA
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NUCLEAR
BIOFUEL
S
KITE
SNA
TURA
LGAS
KITES NUCLEAR
BIOFUELS
Biofuel is a renewable energy sourcewith the potential of considerabledecrease in lifecycle CO
2emissions.
In operation, SOx and particulatematter emissions are also reduced,while NOx emissions slightlyincrease. In principle, existing dieselengines can run on biofuel blends.The most promising biofuels forships are biodiesel and crude plantoil. Biodiesel is most suitable forreplacing marine distillate, andplant oil is suitable for replacing
residual fuels. There are, however,
various unresolved problems. Theseinclude fuel instability, corrosion,susceptibility to microbial growth,adverse effects on piping andinstrumentation, and poor cold flowproperties. Although these technicalchallenges could be resolved by2020, widespread use of biofuelin shipping will depend on price,other incentives, and availability insufficient volumes. Breakthroughsin production methods and newregulations could have a significant
impact.
Biofuels are
biodegradable- spills into the marineenvironment may haveless impact.
SkySails installation on a cargo ship. Compact nuclear power plant design also useable for maritime propulsion.Source: Hyperion Power
TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE IN EACH SCENARIO
NUCLEARNuclear power plants have no GHG emissions during operationand are especially well suited for ships with slowly varying powerdemands. Although several hundred nuclear-powered navy vesselsexist, few nuclear-powered merchant ships have been built.Commercial nuclear ships would have to run on low enricheduranium. Land-based prototypes offer a compact reactor(comparable to large marine diesel engines), with power outputin the range of 25 MW.Fuel lifetime of around 10+ years at a priceof US$ 2 mil/MW is indicated.
The extensive requirements for testing and qualifying thistechnology suggest that it will not be commercially available forcivilian shipping by 2020. Government involvement could howeveraccelerate the uptake process.
The main barriers to nuclear shipping relate to uncontrolledproliferation of nuclear material, decommissioning and storageof radioactive waste, the significant investment costs and societalacceptance.
KITESKites are smaller installations andprovide a thrust force directly fromthe wind. The system consists ofthe kite, control lines with a controlnode, a Hawser connection to theforecastle, a winch, and the bridgecontrol system.
Commercial kites currently rangefrom 160 to more than 300 m andcan substitute a propulsion powerof up to 2000 kW depending onthe wind conditions and ship'sspeed. They fly at between 100 and420m high, at wind speeds of 3
to 8 Beaufort scale. The automatic
control system actively steers andstabilizes the kite, optimising itsperformance. The relative ease ofkite installation for wind propulsionmay result in ship retrofits within thenext 10 years.
Kite operation entails few additionaltasks for the crew. Conflicts withcargo handling equipment couldarise.
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TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE34
the electric ship
the Prius of the seasBY 2020, a hybrid electric ship could contain diesel-
electric configurations, marine fuel cells, battery
packages, solar panels or retractable wind turbines,
and compact superconducting motors. Introducing the
electric ship concepts can improve the ships overall
efficiency and enable incorporation of many types
of renewable energy sources. The large number of
embedded components will increase system complexity,
and require carefully design, performance monitoring
and power management. Hybrid concepts will be
introduced first into specialised ship segments, such as
offshore supply vessels and ferries.
INTRODUCTIONThe use of hybrid powering systems in marine applications has thepotential to offer more efficient and environmentally friendly shippower plants. These powering systems require design, operation,and control of energy production, and conversion in an integratedmanner. The ship machinery will evolve into a more complexsystem, with a wide range of different energy conversion andstorage sub-systems.
The equipment constellation will depend upon the operationalprofile of each ship, even more than it does today. Supplyvessels and ferries with high fluctuations in power demand arethe most suitable candidates for hybrid powering systems. Theimplementation of these new technologies could face significantchallenges, and model-based assessment techniques are importantfor evaluating both technical and economic performance, and forensuring safe operation.
HYBRID SHIPSPower generation works best whenoperating at a single, definedcondition, and fluctuations in powerdemand or supply reduce efficiency.Switching to electric propulsion andpowering will offer more flexibilityat higher efficiency, as multiplepower sources can be included.
The hybrid electric ship of 2020might contain a mix of conventionaland superconducting motors andgenerators, fuel cells, and batteries.This concept easily integrates powerfrom alternative renewable sources,
e.g. solar panels or retractable windturbines. Performance monitoring,power management, and re-dundancy will be key elements.These concepts will be applied toservice, passenger, and small cargoships by 2020. For large cargo ships,they may only be used in auxiliarypower generation.
The high complexity of such asystem will require maintenancestrategies, control of grid stability,improved space utilisation, andweight minimisation.
MARITIME
HYBRID SHIP MARINE FUEL CELLS
Battery power:
either 400 kW at 1 hror 4MW at 6 min.
Layout of a hybrid engine room. A 20 kW solid oxide fuel cell running on methanol.Source: Wrtsil
MARINE FUEL CELLS
In order to increase efficiency inpower production, alternatives tocombustion have to be considered.
Fuel cells convert chemical energydirectly to electricity, at a theoreticalefficiency of up to 80 % (hydrogen),through a series of electrochemicalreactions. They can be fuelled bynatural gas, bio-gas, methanol,ethanol, diesel, or hydrogen. LNGfuel cells emit up to 50 % less CO
2
per kW than diesel engines. Dueto the establishment of Emissions
Control Areas (ECAs), installation
of LNG fuel cells will be favoured.Currently, a marine fuel cellprototype delivers power in therange of 0.3 MW. Initially, fuel cellswill provide auxiliary power, e.g.hotel loads. Ultimately they willprovide supplementary propulsionpower in hybrid electric ships. Themain barriers against uptake arecost, weight, size, lifetime, and slowresponse to load variations. Duringthe next decade fully commercialmarine fuel cells will becomeavailable.
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BATTERIESThe use of multiple electrical powersources in vessels with frequentload changes, and the requirementto operate at optimum efficiency,requires appropriate power storage.
Batteries are one way to addressnetwork power disturbancesand overall balancing, resultingin smooth and uninterruptedoperation. Batteries can storesurplus energy when available, andprovide supply at peak demands.For instance, battery power cancompensate when fuel cells cannot
fulfil fast load changes. Batterystorage enables dual-fuel generators
to run closer to optimal loads,avoiding fast load changes andadditional ship emissions. In 2020,a battery pack of 0.4 MWh, 4 MWpeak load, could weigh 2-4 tonnesand occupy approximately 1 m.
Limited availability of rare earthmetals, e.g. Li, performancedegradation, and prolongedcharging times are the main barriersagainst widespread adoption.
It is expected that nano-technologymay play an important role achieving
a break-through in battery storage.
HIGH
TEMPERATURE
SUPERC
ONDU
CTORS
COLD
IRONIN
G
MARINEF
UELC
ELLS
HYBRID
SHIPS
Hybrid systems will
require increasedfocus on safety andcompetence for crew.
COLD IRONING HIGH-TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS
Conceptual layout of ship to shore power connection.Source: Pawanexh Kohli
In 2009, the worlds first 36.5 MW HTS ship propulsionmotor was successfully tested for the US army.
BATTERIES
COLD IRONINGAbout 5 % of the world fleets annual fuel oil is consumed in ports.As ports are often located in highly populated areas, emissionsfrom ships contribute to local environmental and health problems.
By replacing onboard generated electricity with shore electricitysupply, cold ironing, the detrimental health and environmentaleffects from emissions of SO
X, NO
Xand particles are reduced.
Furthermore, CO2
emissions might also be decreased, dependingon the availability of cleaner onshore power plants. Towards 2020,a standardised plug-in-connection, for use between ships and theshore electrical grid, will become available, both for existing shipsand for new-builds. This connection will convert electricity to theappropriate voltage and frequency for the ship.
The main challenge will be availability of sufficient grid capacity in
larger ports and the lack of infrastructure in smaller ones.
HIGH-TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS
Electrical resistance results in energylosses from components such asgenerators, motors, transformers,and transmission lines.
High-temperature superconductors(HTS) have zero electrical resistance(at -160 C) and could enablesignificant reductions in the size ofmotors and generators as HTS wiresallow 150 times more current thansimilar-sized copper wires. Storage
of energy in HTS coils is anotherapplication. However, using thesematerials requires cryogenic cooling,by, for example, liquid nitrogen,and special thermal shielding; themain risk is failure of cryogeniccooling, resulting in loss of superconductivity. Redundancy will be amajor issue in designing ships thatuse HTS technology.
TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE IN EACH SCENARIO
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TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE36 MARITIME
the digital ship
navigation made easyE-NAVIGATION TECHNOLOGIES are being adopted by
the front runners in shipping, and by 2020 the majority
of the fleet will have followed. They combine accurate
position data, weather and surveillance data, onboard
and remote sensor data, ship specific characteristics,
and response models. E-Navigation technologies could
prevent accidents and optimise secure, economic, and
environmental performance. Onboard electronic charts
will become the unifying platform on the digital ship,
integrating and visualising information from other
applications related to areas such as security and
navigation risks, port entry, and weather routing.
INTRODUCTIONFrom a ship perspective, e-Navigation refers to the ability toaccess, integrate, process, and present locally and remotelyacquired maritime information onboard, and to transmit keysensor information to shore or to other ships. Key technologiesrelate to navigation (e.g. electronic charts, radar, sonar), conditionmonitoring (e.g. hull stress sensors), vessel tracking (e.g. AIS, LRIT),satellite imagery and communications, and computer software. Insum, these elements provide decision support to, for example, theship master.
While some e-Navigation technologies are presently in use by frontrunners in shipping, by 2020 the majority of the fleet will havefollowed. e-Navigation encompasses all aspects of ship operation;from safe navigation, including avoiding extreme weather events,
to minimising fuel consumption and emissions and reducingmaintenance costs, as well as effective ship-port communicationfor optimised port entry and cargo handling. Harmonised data areprocessed by computer models and presented in an integratedformat useful for decision-making, onboard and onshore. Thus awide range of stakeholders are able to benefit. Most e-Navigationdevelopment is focussed towards onboard applications. However,onshore facilities can provide more computing power and additionalexpertise, which can complement and augment onboard systems.
Such systems can also provide support to decision makers onshore,such as the ship owner or port authorities, who also requiresupport tools, e.g. for effective monitoring of fleets. By 2020,systems based on AIS, LRIT, and other satellite services, will enableglobal monitoring and tracking capabilities. This could serve as abasis for a range of support applications. Full benefits may requirehigh data transmission rates, possibly limiting use in remote areas.
ELECTRONIC CHARTS NAVIGATIONAL CONSOLE
ECDIS integrated into the bridge navigation systems willbecome standard for all larger ships.
Electronic Charts charts will act as a platform for additionalgeographical information sevices.
ECDISShip grounding accidents arerecurring events that causeconsiderable material damages, andeven fatalities and harmful oil spills.
The Electronic Chart Display andInformation System (ECDIS), usingElectronic Navigation Charts (ENC),reduces grounding probability byabout 30 %. New IMO regulationsrequire that ECDIS is implementedthroughout most of the fleet by2020. ECDIS will function as aplatform for other support systems,such as advanced weather routing,
piracy detection, sea ice awareness,and floating objects alerts. ThusECDIS is a key e-Navigationtechnology. However, by couplingto non-navigation systems, itspotential benefits could extend wellbeyond safe navigation, to itemssuch as port scheduling and customsclearance systems. Competencein mastering the new technologywill be essential, and users mustbe conscious of the dangers ofinformation overload and alarmblindness.
ADVANCED WEATHER ROUTING
Traditionally, weather routing hasmainly focussed on safe navigation,avoiding bad weather. However,weather routing could also optimisefuel consumption (about 10 %savings), time of arrival, crew andpassenger comfort, or hull fatigue.The preferred route will be providedby a risk-based approach and willdepend on the selected optimisationobjective, ship characteristics,and variations in wind, waves,and currents. Warning criteria forextreme weather events, including
rogue waves, are needed, and
also consideration of the effects ofclimate change.
Towards 2020, the accuracy andspatial-temporal resolution of met-ocean real-time and forecast datais expected to have improved,along with data collection fromremote and onboard sensors.Response models for sea-keepingand resistance in waves will becustomised to individual ships androutes. This will be achieved byutilizing real-time and historical data
with self-learning algorithms.
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AIS:Automatic Identification System
LRIT:Long Range Identification and Tracking
SHIP-PO
RTSYNC
HRONISA
TION
TECHNO
LOGY
PIRACYDETE
CTION
ANDDETERREN
CE
ADVA
NCED
WEATH
ER
ROUTING
ECDIS
PIRACY DETECTION AND DETERRENCE SHIP DELAYS
Global number of attempted and committed piracy attacks.Source: IMO
Port congestion in average days of delay.Source: Globalports.co.uk
SHIP-PORT SYNCHRONISATION TECHNOLOGYShipping contracts typically require vessels to steam at utmostdespatch, i.e. at top speed, between ports, regardless ofthe availability of berths at the destination port. This leadsto unnecessarily high fuel consumption and emissions, andcontributes to port congestion, as vessels rush to their destinationonly to have to lie at anchor for days.
By 2020, berth planning algorithms, using satellite tracking andweather routing, will be integrated into ship-port communicationsystems. This will facilitate synchronisation and generate berthingschedules that maximise the terminals throughput at minimaltranshipment cost, while minimising vessels dwelling and fuelconsumption.
As ships tend to be more vulnerable in waiting situations close
to shore, reduced time in port will also enhance ship safety andsecurity.
PIRACY DETECTION AND DETERRENCEHigh insurance premiums reflect thelikelihood of armed robbery, piracy,and terrorism to seafarers and ships.These threats are not expected tosubside over the next decade.
Successful threat mitigation requiresearly detection and effective,remotely-controlled deterrents (e.g.water, sound, electric shock).
Commercial, high performanceradars already have 4 times therange of standard navigationalradars. They can detect dingy-sized
objects over a distance of up to 4 nm
(nautical miles), and this will haveincreased to 10 nm by 2020. Real-time data from radars, sonars, andcameras, together with long-rangesatellite data, will be processed byan onboard warning system. Duringthe next decade, it is expected thatprivate service providers will offerpiracy warnings via satellite, whichare integrated with the onboardsystem.
In response, pirates will try to adapttheir attack strategy.
TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE IN EACH SCENARIO
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TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE38 MARITIME
ICE LOAD MONITORING
When navigating in ice-coveredwaters, the captain must be ableto judge when the ice load hasreached a level that exceeds thelocal strength of the ships hull.
The ice load monitoring system onthe bridge should indicate whenextreme loading occurs. Ice loadingis continuously measured by acouple of 100s of strain gauges thatare affixed to selected frames in thebow region of the vessel. The signalsmeasured will then be benchmarked
against the known safety limits
of the frames. The safety limitshave been calculated, based onthe vessel-specific, finite-elementmodel. This system relies on correctsensor positioning, calibrationand detection of malfunctioningsensors, and the quality of thebenchmarking.
It is expected that over the nextdecade, such systems will bedeployed on many Arctic vesselsproviding advice on when to slowdown or when to select another
route in order to avoid ship damage.
INTRODUCTIONClimate models predict a significant decrease in Arctic summer icecover over the next ten years. Less ice provides new opportunitiesfor shipping, leading to more intense and rapid development ofArctic-related technologies. Increased demand for seaborne tradein the Arctic will lead to the introduction of larger vessels thatrequire novel icebreaking services.
Many technologies that are commonly used in more temperateareas, such as conventional lifeboats may not work in the Arcticenvironment.
Crews with little experience in Arctic navigation need supportsystems for decision making, and require training to be able tonavigate safely and effectively in Arctic waters. Increased demandfor seaborne trade in the Arctic will lead to the introduction oflarger vessels that require novel icebreaking services.
OBLIQUE ICE BREAKER
Sideways advancing breaks a wider channel than a traditional icebreaker of same size. Source: Arctic Technology Inc.
SHIP SPEED SIMULATION
Variation of the simulated ship speed in floe ice field.Source: ICETRANS
NOVEL ICEBREAKERSThe bow shoulder areas of anescorted vessel that is wider thanthe icebreaker, are exposed tounbroken ice, leading to increasedice resistance.
Wider channels can be broken byicebreakers with an oblique hullform that is especially designed forsideways icebreaking. Sidewaysoperation is achieved by usingseveral 360 rotating azimuthingpropulsors. Such an icebreakerwould operate bow first when
escorting smaller vessels, andsideways for wider vessels. Thisdesign would allow an icebreakerwith a 20 m beam to open achannel up to 40 m wide. Thiswould enable a single icebreaker toescort wider vessels, which to daterequire two traditional icebreakers.Tests indicate that when in obliqueoperation mode, the speed is lessthan half the normal speed. Over thenext decade, this novel icebreakingconcept is expected to be widelyadopted for Arctic operations.
the arctic ship
exploiting new opportunities in the northOVER THE NEXT decade, shrinking amounts of summer
sea ice, along with higher prices of hydrocarbons and
greater exploitation of raw materials, will result in an
increase in Arctic ship traffic. This will lead to faster
development of Arctic-related technologies, such as
ice route optimisation software, hull load monitoring
systems, and introduction of new icebreaking concepts.
Inexperienced crews will be prepared for ice navigation
by using ice training simulators. As conventional
lifeboats or liferafts are not designed for safe
evacuation in Arctic ice conditions, new amphibious
types of evacuation vessels will be brought into service.
The Arctic ocean could be largely
ice free in summerwithin a decade.
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ARCTIC EVACUATION VESSELSConventional lifeboats or liferaftsare not designed for safe evacuationunder Arctic ice conditions.
Ice strengthened and winterizedlifeboats are needed to travel overice formations, like ice ridges, and totransit in open water. By 2020, suchvessels will use the Archimedesscrew concept for movement. Twolarge, screw-like, floating pontoonswill be located along either side
of the vessel. Design challengesinclude the material of the pontoonsand their connections, as they willhave to tolerate high impact loadsat extreme temperatures.
Evacuation vessels on board Arcticships will have to be included in thegeneral winterization of the ship,e.g. protected from icing and withpreheating of their engines.
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NOVEL EVACUATION VESSELS IN ICE ICE MANOEUVRING SIMULATOR
Evacuation vessels advances in water and on ice using Archimedesscrew for propulsion. Photo: Sveinung Lset.
Maneoeuvring simulator can provide realistic training experience forice navigators. Source: Ship Manouever Simulator in Trondheim
ICE ROUTING SOFTWARE
Ships without icebreaker escortwill have to find their own routesthrough the ice that will keep theirfuel consumption and travel time toa minimum.
By 2020, ice routing software willtake into account information onprevailing ice conditions, basedon satellite images, weatherobservations, ice charts, andweather and ice model forecasts.
Ice conditions, such as level ice,
brash ice channel, floe ice field,
and ice ridge field, will be simulatedstochastically for the area of theroute selected initially. The modelwill then compute the resultingice resistance, speed, and transittime, also taking into account theship characteristics. The navigatorwill set the preferred optimizationcriteria, such as speed, transit time,fuel economy, or emissions, for bestroute selection.
Ice routing may also suggest thesafer routes through ice.
480 container transit voyagesacross the Arctic around 2030?
Source: DNV, Position Paper 04-2010
TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE IN EACH SCENARIO
ICE NAVIGATION TRAINING SIMULATORA growing number of ships in Arctic areas will have navigatorswith little or no ice experience. Effective training methods formastering navigation in ice are needed.
Training simulators offer an environment in which the navigatorcan train for ship operations in varying conditions of simulated ice,darkness, snow, fog, and icing. The ship response to navigatorsactions is computed in real-time, based on the shipice interactionand propulsion models, together with the effects from chosenweather conditions.
The navigators will learn to recognize different ice types and toavoid heavy ice features, such as ice ridges and multi-year ice.Training for specific ship operations, such as station keeping inice or ice management, can be performed in the simulator. The
challenge will be to model ship behaviour realistically for alldifferent types of ice conditions.
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TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE40 MARITIME
INTEGRATED SHIP DESIGN TOOLSThe complexity of future designsand the risks involved will acceleratethe adoption of advanced modellingmethods and tools, thereby enablingthe development and assessment ofnew hull designs, propulsors, andmachinery systems. This designapproach will be based on versatilesoftware environments, includingmulti-objective optimisation algo-rithms.
Mathematical methods, objectives,constraints, and analysis suiteswill be entirely controlled by the
designer on a case-specific basis.The calculations involved willutilise module-based tools for eachsubsystem of the ship, e.g. for themachinery components or the hullshape. The different modules willbe linked through an integrateddesign platform. In order to ensuretimely evaluations, the software willdevise multi-scale, multi-physics,and multi-resolution models of thepertinent physics.
The definition of performance will bemulti-dimensional. The integrateddesign tools in place by 2020 willsupport the distributed, parallelised,
and coordinated execution of thevarious design tasks by takingfull advantage of multi-processorarchitectures and the internetinfrastructure. The uptake in thedesign and optimisation of morecomplex, specialised, and costlyships, such as passenger and servicevessels, will be higher.
The major risks that will befaced in the use of integrateddesign tools towards 2020 willbe their considerable complexityand the need for expert users.
Additional risks, related to softwareintegration, data management,and communication, can also beexpected.
One crucial factor is accessto reliable data on design,performance, and cost of thedifferent technology options. Mostof these data may be collected fromend-user applications, model-basedapproaches, and large-scale testing.Tighter interactions betweenship-owners, yards, componentmanufacturers, and classificationsocieties will be essential.
INTRODUCTIONShip designers always strive to combine different objectives, suchas cargo capacity, optimal speed, fuel efficiency, and safety, whilealso being constrained by rules and regulations. New designsface further challenges from an increasing number of new andupcoming regulations, governing areas such as ballast water, airemissions, and new emission control areas. Volatility in energyprices, business concerns over market uncertainty, and extremeweather conditions all contribute to the complexity of futuredesigns.
Advanced modeling methods are emerging in response to thenew design challenges. In order to manage the complexity andrisk inherent in innovative solutions, there is a drive towardsuse of advanced, model-based techniques for assessing novelconcepts and technologies with respect to technical and economicperformance from a lifecycle perspective.
the virtual ship
new ways of designing shipsMODERN SHIP DESIGN requires careful consideration
of technical uncertainties, market specificities, future
energy prices, existing and upcoming regulations, and
anticipated climate change. These factors pose greater
challenges for handling uncertainty and for managing
risk.
Advanced modelling methods and tools for the
development and assessment of new hull designs,
propulsors, and complex machinery systems are an
enabling technology for addressing these risks.
COST BENEFIT OF ABATEMENT MEASURES MODEL BASED HULL DESIGN
Average marginal abatement cost and CO2
reduction potential for the world fleetin 2030. Baseline: 1.53 bill tons/year. Source: DNV
Coupling of CAD and CFD for ship design.
The right designmay save up to 20% fuel expenses- at zero cost.
Source: DNV, Position Paper 05-2010
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GLOBAL DIVERSITY
GREEN WEALTH
LOCAL FIRST
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MEDIUM
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MODEL-BASED HULL DESIGN
Traditional hull design optimisationis usually limited to still-waterconditions, design cargo loads,and design speed conditions. Thisapproach can result in ships beingbuilt that have poor performanceunder off-design conditions.
In 2020, hull design tools willseamlessly integrate computer-aidedengineering components, i.e. CAD,CFD, & FEM, with multi-objectiveoptimisation. The definition ofperformance will be generalised
to include resistance, efficiency,
sea-keeping, manoeuverability,strength, etc. The inclusion of dragreducing or propulsive efficiencyenhancing devices increases theneed for computational tools ofhigh predictive power. In 2020,ships will be designed with realisticoperation profiles to produce robusthulls that perform adequately undera wide range of external conditions.
The major challenge is to implementthese tools in a way that is bothflexible and computationally
efficient.
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VIRTUAL ENGINE ROOM LARGE SCALE DEMONSTRATORS
Model based ship machinery design. Ongoing large scale demonstration for marine fuel cells (Viking Lady).
TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE IN EACH SCENARIO
LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATORSIn order to remain abreast of the complexities and risks in shippingin 2020, a faster and safer path from idea creation to the actuallaunch of novel products is required. The use of advancedmodelling tools will be the first step. To gain confidence and bringinnovative technologies forwards to commercialisation, laboratorytests and large-scale demonstration projects are necessary.
Showcase projects have the ability to validate theoretical models,identify and address safety challenges, qualify technologies, andeliminate perception biases. Modelling tools and experimentalprojects will complement each other by defining the specificationsfor testing and scale-up with greater accuracy. Large-scaledemonstrators can only be established jointly, between developingorganisations and end-user shipping companies.
Sharing the investment and risks among the major stakeholderswill accelerate innovation and technology adoption.
MODEL-BASED SHIP MACHINERY DESIGNEmerging powering systems, likefuel cell, batteries, and renewableauxiliary sources, will result in morecomplex configurations. Traditionaldesigns focus on improvingefficiency via the optimisation ofindividual components.
With todays maturity of equipmenttechnology, new approaches willneed to be adopted that considermachinery and energy conversionfrom an integrated systemsperspective.
By 2020, modular computer toolswill be available to model, simulate,and optimise the operation ofmachinery systems under realisticoperational profiles. By building asystem from libraries of equipmentmodels, the same tools will beused to perform optimal design,condition monitoring, andperformance optimisation, as wellas safety and reliability analyses. Thelack of experts and data reliabilityare the major risks that these toolswill face towards 2020.
CAD: Computer Aided DesignCFD: Computational Fluid DynamicsFEM: Finite Element Method
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TECHNOLOGY UPT KE:
il, gas, and coal will co tinue t d minate the energy
mix, coverin 79 % o f lobal e er y supply by 2020.
lobal ener co sumpt n ncre se by 19 % over the
n , dri en prim ril b on OECD countries.
N nologi s ll e f re be concentrated on
improvin ef cien an r u in environmental impact,
in relation bo to ra o an to power generation.