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CanadianPublicOpiniononClimateChangeandClimatePolicy
ÉrickLachapellePresenta:onatthePublicPolicyForumBreakfast
Con:nentalDivide?CanadianandUSViewsonEnergyandClimateChangeOFawaOntario,February23,2011
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4.04
6.12
6.24
6.48
7.82
8.59
8.7
9.38
9.41
9.54
9.91
10.06
10.36
10.71
17.27
19.18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Mexico
Switzerland
Sweden
France
Italy
Austria
Norway
GreatBritain
NewZealand
Japan
Denmark
Germany
Finland
Ireland
Canada
UnitedStates
MetrictonnesofCO2perperson
Percapitaemissionsfromfuelcombus6on,2008
Source:EIA
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0.11
0.13
0.14
0.19
0.2
0.21
0.21
0.23
0.25
0.25
0.26
0.28
0.34
0.44
0.48
0.5
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
Switzerland
Norway
Sweden
France
Denmark
Austria
Ireland
GreatBritain
Italy
Finland
Japan
Germany
NewZealand
UnitedStates
Mexico
Canada
MetrictonnesofCO2perThousandYear2005USD
CarbonIntensityUsingMarketExchangeRates,2008
Source:EIA
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Policycontext• U.S.policycontext
– Repudia:onofKyoto– Congressionalstalemateoncap‐and‐trade– Backtothestates?
• Canadianfederalpolicy– Earlyengagementfollowedbyretreat– Stalledcap‐and‐tradeandcarbontaxes– Harmoniza:onwithU.S.
• ProvincialpolicyinCanada– Carbontaxes– Capandtrade– Feedintariffs
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Wheredoesthepublicstand?
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Na:onalSurveyofCanadianPublicOpiniononClimateChange
• Inconjunc:onwithNa:onalSurveyofAmericanPublicOpiniononClimateChange(NSPOCC)– ChristopherBorick(MuhlenbergCollege)andBarryRabe(UniversityofMichigan)
• Applica:onofsameinstrumenttoCanadaforcross‐na:onalcomparison– ErickLachapelle(UniversitédeMontréal)
• CanadianpollsponsoredbythePublicPolicyForumandSustainableProsperity,withaddi:onalsupportfromInternatEnergySolu:onsCanada
• Regionallystra:fiedrandomsampleviatelephonesurveyof1214respondents
• Fieldingdates:13Januaryto4February2011
• Marginoferror+/‐2.8%19:mesoutof20
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Publicunderstandingofglobalwarming
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Solidevidenceofwarmingglobaltemperaturesoverlast40years?
“Fromwhatyou’vereadandheard,istheresolidevidenceofwarmingglobaltemperaturesoverthelast40years?
6%
16%
14%
26%
80%
58%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Canada
U.S.
Yes
No
NotSure
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Solidevidenceofwarmingglobaltemperaturesoverthelast40years?
89%
85%78%
66%
68%
66%84%
Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg
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Aseriousproblem?Inyourviewisglobalwarmingaveryseriousproblem,somewhatseriousproblem,not
tooserious,ornotaproblem?
61%
30%
5%3%
57%
34%
6%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Veryserious Somewhatserious Nottooserious Notaproblem
USA
Canada
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Top3reasonscitedforbeliefinclimatechange
«Andwhatistheprimaryreasonthathascausedyoutobelievethatglobaltemperatureshavebeenincreasing?»
14%
10%
13%
17%
33%
39%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Canada
USA
Warmertemps.Changingweather
Mel:ngglaciers
Scien:ficresearch
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Beliefinglobalwarmingbypartyiden:fica:on
64%
91%
84%
89%87%
81%
28%
6%10% 10%
3%
12%8%
3%6%
1%
10%7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Conserva:ve Liberal NDP BlocQuébecois Green Undecided
Yes
No
NotSure
“Ifafederalelec:onwereheldtoday,whichpoli:calpartywouldyouprobablyvotefor?”
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Whatabout«Climategate»?
36%
60%
4%
47%49%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Agree Disagree NotSure
Canada
USA
«Scien:stsareoversta:ngevidenceaboutglobalwarmingfortheirowninterests»
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Roleofrespec:vegovernmentlevels
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Viewsongovernmentroles“Foreachlevelofgovernmentpleasetellmeifithasagreatdealofresponsibility,someresponsibilityornoresponsibilityfortakingac:onstoreduceglobalwarming”
5%
5%
5%
22%
23%
30%
30%
37%
36%
43%
35%
29%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Federalgovernment
Stategovernments
Localgovernments
Agreatdealofresponsibility
Someresponsibility
Noresponsibility
NotSure
3%
2%
2%
8%
9%
13%
24%
36%
42%
65%
52%
42%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Federalgovernemnt
Provincialgovernments
Localgovernments
Agreatdealofresponsibility
Someresponsibility
Noresponsibility
NotSure
U.S.
Canada
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FederalRoleinCanadaPercentsta:ng“agreatdealofresponsibility”foraddressingglobalwarming
61%
68%
66%
62%
50%
53%73%
Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg
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Federalinac:onareasontoact?Percentagreeingtostatement“Ifthefederalgovernmentfailstoaddresstheissueof
climatechangeitismyprovince’sresponsibility…”
79%61%73%
61%
64%
69%81%
Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg
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Economicbenefits?Percentagreeingtostatement“provincialgovernmentswillboosttheireconomiesby
requiringgreateruseofrenewableenergy”
Na:onaltotal:76%
76%
85%
74%
77%78%68%70%70%
68%78%
77%
74% 85%76%
Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg
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Carbonpricing?
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SupportforCapandTradeThere is a proposed system called cap and trade where the government would issue permits limiting the amount of
greenhouse gases companies can put out. Companies that did not use all their permits could sell them to other companies. The idea is that many companies would find ways to put out less GHG because that would be cheaper than buying permits.
Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this type of system
39% 36%
18%
49%
59%
74%
13%
5% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Cap&Trade C&T$15/mt C&T$50/mt
For
Against
NotSure
58%63%
58%
34% 33%38%
7%4% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Cap&Trade C&T$15/mt C&T$50/mt
For
Against
NotSure
USA
Canada
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SupportforCapandTradeinWCIPercentexpressingsupportforCapandTrade
55%
67%
57%
62%
52%
46%56%
Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg
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Capandtrade:atwhatscale?“If a cap and trade system was to be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
would you prefer it to be done at the national level, within a region of the country or only within an individual state?”
77%73%
10%6%
11% 12%
2%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
USA Canada
Na:onal Regional State/provinceonly NotSure
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CapandTrade:atwhatscale?PercentexpressingpreferenceforCapandTradeatna:onallevel
74%
82%
73%
60%
69%
57%72%
Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg
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Carbon Taxation “Another way to lower GHG emissions would be to increase taxes on carbon based
fuels such as coal, oil, gasoline and natural gas. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this type of system?”
22%
32%
15%
62% 63%
80%
6% 5% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
CarbonTax C.Tax$15/mt C.Tax$50/mt
For
Against
Notsure
51%
60%57%
45%
36%41%
4% 4% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
CarbonTax C.Tax$15/mt C.Tax$50/mt
For
Against
Notsure
USA
Canada
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SupportforCarbonTaxesbyRegionPercentexpressingsupportforCarbonTaxes
48%
57%50%
61%
34%
38%56%
Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg
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Revenuecollec:on«Andwhichlevelofgovernmentshouldcollectandusetherevenue»?
35%
39%
23%
3%
50%
35%
14%
1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Federal Provincial/State Notsure Refused
USA
Canada
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Revenueuse“IfthegovernmentenactedapolicythatrequiredemiFerstopayforthereleaseofgreenhouse
gases,wheredoyoupreferthemoneygeneratedbespent?
43%
15%
8% 9%
14%
4%
7%
51%
15%
7%
10%
7% 6%4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Alterna:veEnergyR&D
TaxRebates Payrolltaxcuts Deficitreduc:on Don'tdoit Sustainexis:ngprograms
Notsure
USA
Canada
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WillingnesstopayHowmuchwouldyoupayeachyearformorerenewableenergytobeproduced?
USA(2008) USA(2010) Canada
$0 22% 41% 21%
$1‐49 16% 26% 28%
$50‐99 17% 17% 19%
$100‐249 13% 7% 13%
$250‐499 10% 4% 6%
$500ormore 7% 2% 7%
Notsure 15% 4% 5%
Refused 1% 0% 1%
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LessonsandImplica:ons• Domes:cally,publicsupportforprovincialac:onstakenatlocallevel
– Opposi:ondoesnotseemtoincreasewithexperience– Canbe“goodpoli:cs”
• BroadpublicsupportforrenewableenergyandR&Dmayprovide“framing”– Wheremoneygoesandhowit’sspentmayhavetrac:onmovingforwardoncarbonpricing
• GapbetweenwhatpublicexpectsfromFederallevel,andcurrentgovernmentpolicyinbothCanadaandtheU.S.
• CurrentlylowersupportinUSforaggressiveclimatepolicy– Notallbadnews,publicopinionisvola:le
• Publicsupportwillbekeytoimplemen:ngclimatepolicy–abeFerunderstandingoffactorsunderlyingsupport(economiccondi:ons,personalobserva:onsofclimate,ideology)canhelptoiden:fywindowsofopportunityforpolicychange