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Financial Modeling mit Analytica
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TAG 2Wiederholung
Monte Carlo Simulation
Financial Modeling
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TAG 2Wiederholung und Monte Carlo
Financial Modeling
Aufgabenstellungen beim Modellieren
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WHAT IF
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Monte Carlo Simulation
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80 90 100 110 120 13070
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Stück Preis Wechsel-kurs
x x = Umsatz
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Stück Preis Wechsel-kurs
x x = Umsatz
2,012 1,152 1.06 2,449,827#12,016 1,086 1.22 2,671,535#2
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Stück Preis Wechsel-kurs
x x = Umsatz
2,012 1,152 1.06 2,449,827#12,016 1,086 1.22 2,671,535#21,971 1,090 1.19 2,555,510#31,938 1,105 1.17 2,516,307#42,000 1,146 1.16 2,647,883#51,968 1,166 1.07 2,465,771#62,174 1,143 1.24 3,072,286#7
2,055 1,298 1.18 3,141,262#82,144 1,115 1.18 2,831,511#91,941 1,084 1.14 2,400,131#101,886 1,208 1.19 2,713,363#11
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Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Umsatz
1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#9982,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999
1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000
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Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Umsatz
1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#9982,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999
1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
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Let’s explore the uncertainty.
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Demo-Model-D1-6-Monte-Carlo-Sim.ana
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TAG 2Wiederholung und Monte Carlo
Financial Modeling
Aufgabenstellungen beim Modellieren
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Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”“
—George E. P. Box
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Financial ModelingAccounting
vs.
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Gibt es eine Grundstruktur?
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Inputs OutputsCalculations
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Inputs OutputsCalculations
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Zielgrößen
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Entscheidungs-
möglichkeiten
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Entscheidungen mit Zielgrößen verbinden
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Entscheidungen mit Zielgrößen verbinden
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Ein kreativer Prozess
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✗
Ignorieren, was keinen Einfluss auf Zielgröße hat
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1. Ziel- bzw. Entscheidungsgrößen identifizieren
2. Entscheidungsmöglichkeiten herausfinden
3. Entscheidungen mit Zielgrößen verbinden
• Von Input zu Output
• Von Output zu Input
• Von beiden Seiten
4. Irrelevante Größen ignorieren
Checklist
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A theory should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.”“
—Albert Einstein
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1. Ziel- bzw. Entscheidungsgrößen identifizieren
2. Entscheidungsmöglichkeiten herausfinden
3. Entscheidungen mit Zielgrößen verbinden
• Von Input zu Output
• Von Output zu Input
• Von beiden Seiten
4. Irrelevante Größen ignorieren
5. Modelllogik einfach halten
Checklist
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If I have seen further than [others] it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.” “
—Sir Isaac Newton
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1. Ziel- bzw. Entscheidungsgrößen identifizieren
2. Entscheidungsmöglichkeiten herausfinden
3. Entscheidungen mit Zielgrößen verbinden
• Von Input zu Output
• Von Output zu Input
• Von beiden Seiten
4. Irrelevante Größen ignorieren
5. Modelllogik einfach halten
6. Vorhandene Modelle oder Teile nutzen
Checklist
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Now you’ll build a model.
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The Business Case
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Sommer✈
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Winter✈
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Eine kleine Fluggesellschaft möchte einmal pro Woche ein Ferienziel für Kurzurlauber anfliegen: Im Sommer an die Ostsee, im Winter in ein Skigebiet.
Der Umsatz wird durch verkaufte Tickets gemacht. Kosten entstehen für jeden Passagier bzw. jedes verkaufte Ticket. Das sind die variablen Kosten. Die weiteren Kosten sind fix und bestehen im Grunde nur aus einer festen „Full-Service-Charter“-Gebühr für das benötigte Flugzeug. Der Betrieb des Flugzeugs usw. wird also im Grunde „outgesourced“.
Man erwartet, dass man zehn Monate im Jahr fliegen kann, jeweils zur Hälfte in die beiden Zielgebiete. Was man noch nicht so genau abschätzen kann ist die Nachfrage nach solchen Flügen.
Außerdem kommen zwei Flugzeugtypen mit unterschied-licher Kapazität in Frage.
Was man wissen will ist:
1. Rechnet sich das überhaupt? Hierfür soll erst mal nur die Umsatzrentabilität angesehen werden.
2. Welches Flugzeug sollte man chartern?
Aufgabe
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HTWK-FinancialModelingWithAnalytica-D2-Business-Case.pdf
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Eine kleine Fluggesellschaft möchte einmal pro Woche ein Ferienziel für Kurzurlauber anfliegen: Im Sommer an die Ostsee, im Winter in ein Skigebiet.
Der Umsatz wird durch verkaufte Tickets gemacht. Kosten entstehen für jeden Passagier bzw. jedes verkaufte Ticket. Das sind die variablen Kosten. Die weiteren Kosten sind fix und bestehen im Grunde nur aus einer festen „Full-Service-Charter“-Gebühr für das benötigte Flugzeug. Der Betrieb des Flugzeugs usw. wird also im Grund „outgesourced“.
Man erwartet, dass man zehn Monate im Jahr fliegen kann, jeweils zur Hälfte in die beiden Zielgebiete. Was man noch nicht so genau abschätzen kann ist die Nachfrage nach solchen Flügen.
Außerdem kommen zwei Flugzeugtypen mit unterschied-licher Kapazität in Frage.
Was man wissen will ist:
1. Rechnet sich das überhaupt? Hierfür soll erst mal nur die Umsatzrentabilität angesehen werden.
2. Welches Flugzeug sollte man chartern?
Aufgabe
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TAG 2Wiederholung und Monte Carlo
Financial Modeling
Aufgabenstellungen beim Modellieren
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f(x)f(x)f(x)
f(x) f(x)
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Test as you build
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f(x)
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f(x)f(x)f(x)
f(x)
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f(x)f(x)f(x)
f(x)
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f(x)f(x)f(x)
f(x) f(x)
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Okay, now the numbers…
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BMSim-Airline-1-concept-with-description.ana