Download - First steps into Futuring
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“Managers make many decisions each day, and a great majority of them refers to future events”
Spyrog Makridakis
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Roger BaconScientific Studies, 1260
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1950 19
60
1970 19
80
1990
2013
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The exploration of futures strongly bases on the participants abilities.
Ossip K. Flechtheim
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Social Fabric
Technology Fabric
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Zeitgeist describes the interactions,
values and believes of a society. It is the
“spirit of times” and the “soul of society”.
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It describes the period after the present. The Future is inevitable, partial or not known and symbolizes changes and uncertainty.
It is a combination of new or existing variables and their amplitudes.
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Future of the Past
Future of the Present
Future of the Future
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We live, already lived or are really close to the Future of the Past. That is why we have more facts and information that transforms it into a pool of insights and deeper understanding of changes.
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1966“Probe of the future”, TRW
66 forecastsMostly wrong
1967“The Year 2000”, Macmillian100 inventions15% corrects10% partial correct
Steven P. Schnaars
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The Future of the Present generates new realities and identifies new possible changes, logics, risks and opportunities. It is a combination of several variables from trends to fictions.
The primary objective is to amplify and create new perspectives anticipating decisions.
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IsomorphicCycles
Trends
NewVariables
FutureFuture
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The spread of computers and the Internet will put jobs in two categories: People who tell computers what to do, and people who are told by computers what to do.” Only one of these two job categories will be well paid.
Marc Andreessen
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After Next (AN) is a vision that is explored upon a created and selected future. It uses Fiction and variables from scenarios as a starting points. AN identifies new possible realities, logics and not yet existing opportunities. Once created it turns atemporal, a reality, that we do not know when it will happen.
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Futu
re After Next
Variables of the future
New Variables
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SocialZeitgeistFunction
TechnologyScience
Parts
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It is the process of exploring, understanding and creating new future realities. Its objectives is to create a new future consciousness of possible changes, identify new opportunities, risks and logics for the present context.
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Linear/ProgressiveCyclic Open/Complex
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Cognitive(inspired by Metaverse Roadmap)
Unseen Future
VirtualMirror
Exis
tin
gN
ewPhysicalCognitive
Unseen Future
VirtualMirror
Exis
tin
gN
ew
Physical
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(Daniel Egger 2013)
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Micro Variables
MacroVariables
MegaVariables
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Dr. Vannevar Bush “The 3rd Eye”, 1945
Core Vision Details
Google Glass, 2013
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191
3, T
he
Art
of N
ois
es,
Lu
igi R
usso
lo
The Cool Hunter
The Trend Researcher
The Futurist
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The Cool Hunter
The Trend Researcher
The Futurist
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The Cool Hunter
The Trend Researcher
The Futurist
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Planner Futurist(Specific Theme; 3-5 years; may use inputs from the
Futurists)
(Multiple perspectives; more than 5 years; constantly in the
flux)
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ExploratoryQualitative
NormativeQuantitative
Future Studies applies multiple tools to explore
new realities.
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- Mechanical Extrapolation- Unexplored Assumptions- Not to imagine- Work only with ONE future- Search for a solution instead of opportunities- Predict the future- Judge the future with todays values- Low Flexibility- “Fashion” Tools- Super simplified Tools
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“We did not invent time travel yet
(unknonw)
too change the past. Our only opportunity is
to create a new future.