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Futures markets
Today’s price for products to be delivered in the future.
A mechanism of trading promises of future commodity deliveries among traders.
Biological nature of ag production– Prices not known when production decision is
made– Processors need year around supply
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Futures Market Exchanges
12 organized exchanges Two largest
– Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)» Grains, interest rates» http://www.cbot.com/
– Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)» Livestock, financial, currencies» http://www.cme.com/
– Combined for 75% of futures volume
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Futures Market Exchanges
Trading pits Centralized pricing
– Buyers and sellers represented– All information represented
Perfectly competitive market– Open out-cry trading
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The futures contract
A legally binding contract to make or take delivery of the commodity– Form (wt, grade, specifications)– Time (delivery date)– Place (delivery location)– Possession (seller delivers, buyer receives)
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The futures contract Standardized contract No physical exchange takes place when
the contract is traded. Deliveries are made when the contract
expires (delivery time) Payment is based on the price established
when the contract was initially traded.
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Standardized contract Certain delivery (contract) months Fixed size of contract
– Grains 5,000 bushels– Livestock in pounds
» Lean Hogs 40,000 lbs carcass
» Live Cattle 40,000 lbs live
» Feeder Cattle 50,000 lbs live
Specified delivery points– Relatively few delivery points
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Market position
Objective: Buy low, sell high You can either buy or sell initially
– Sell a December Corn contract initially» Short the market» Buy back at a later date
– Buy a February Live Cattle contract initially» Long the market» Sell back at a later date
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Margin account Highly leveraged trades
– Margin is the earnest money that must be maintained in the trader’s account
– Often 5-10% of full value Margin account settled everyday
– Must maintain account balance– Margin call
Calculate as if you had to get out of the market every day.
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Margin Account
Initial margin: The amount needed to open and account.
Maintenance margin: The minimum amount needed to keep and account open.
“Mark to the Market” at the close of each trading day.
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Margin Account Example
Initial margin$1,000
Maintenance margin$800
Corn contract (5000 bushels)– Day 1: Sell at 2.55
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Margin Account Example
Day Price Chg G/L Margin
1 2.54 +.01 +50.00 1050.00
2 2.58 -.04 -200.00 850.00
3 2.61 -.03 -150.00 700.00
Below Maintenance Margin
must make $100 margin call 800.00
4 2.52 +.09 +450.00 1250.00
Changes reflect the initial “sell” of the contract
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Margin Account Example
Note that you can calculate your margin account if you know the initial margin, any additions or removals and the current closing price.
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Market participants
Hedgers are willing to make or take physical delivery because they are producers or users of commodity.
Speculators buy or sell in an attempt to profit from price movements.
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Hedgers
Producers with a commodity to sell at some point in the future
Short hedgers1 Sell the futures contract first2 Buy the futures contract (offset) when they
sell the physical commodity
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Hedgers
Processors or feeders that plan to buy a commodity in the future
Long hedgers1 Buy the futures first2 Sell the futures contract (offset) when they
buy the physical commodity
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Futures Speculators
Do not have the commodity nor need the commodity
They try to profit from price change
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Price discovery
Must be a buyer and seller for every transaction
Supply and demand still works– more sellers than buyers price falls– more buyers than sellers price rises
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Futures trade on information
Why would buyers buy?– They think that the price at delivery will be
higher than it is currently. Why would sellers sell?
– They think that the price at delivery will be lower than it is currently.
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Futures Trade Example
Day 1: Think that the new crop (Dec) corn price is going to declineStep 1: Decide to Sell a December corn futures contract by calculating
expected price from hedgingFutures bid $2.34Adjust for basis -.31Subtract commission -.01Expected hedge price $2.02
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Futures Trade Example
Step 2: Call your broker and place order to sell Dec corn at the market
Step 3: Broker forwards order to CBOT where the broker's representative runs the order to the pit and tries to fill the order.
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Futures Trade Example
Step 4: The order is filled at $2.34
Step 5: Broker calls to confirm fill
Step 6: Send margin money to broker Initial margin account level is $750 Must maintain at least $600 in margin
account at end of each day
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Futures Trade Example
Day 2: Closing price is $2.38
We sold at $2.34
Market is $2.38
We are behind by -$0.04
On 5,000 bushels = $200
Send broker $200 on Day 2
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Futures trade example
At some later date we decide to offset our position
Last Day: Call broker and place order to buy Dec corn at the market
Two things could have happened
Prices are higher than initially
Prices are lower than initially
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Futures trade example Case 1: Prices are higher => $2.56 Calculate returns per bushelsSold on Day 1@ $2.34Bought back later @ $2.56Gross future return -$0.22Commission @ $50/contract -$0.01Net return per bushel -$0.23Local cash price $2.25Net price $2.25-.23=$2.02
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Futures trade example Convert to contract returns
Gross returns -$0.23
Contract = 5,000 bushels -$1,150
Because we settled the margin account every day the broker has this amount plus at least $600 minimum margin. The remaining margin balance is returned.
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Futures trade example Case 2: Prices are lower => $2.20 Calculate returns per bushelsSold Day 1 @ $2.34Bought back later @ $2.20Gross return +$0.14Commission @ $50/contract -$0.01Net return per bushel +$0.13Local cash price $1.89Net price $1.89+.13= $2.02
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Futures trade example
Convert to contract returns
Gross returns +$0.13
Contract = 5,000 bushels +$650
Because the margin account is settled every day the broker has this amount plus the $750 initial margin. We are returned the $1,400.
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Relationship between futures and cash prices
Difference is call basisBasis = Cash - Futures
GrainTypically quote the absolute value
“30 cents under” = $.30 basis
Cash is $.30 less than futures Livestock
The sign is important
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Basis
Reflects local conditions– Supply and demand
» Yields, storage availability, processing capacity, rail cars, local usage
Individual basis impacted by factors that effect the local cash price relative to the delivery point price.
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Basis
Differs by market– Time, place, and form
Basis includes – Storage to maturity – Transportation to delivery point– Grade differences
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Basis generalities
Cash and futures move together Basis narrows at contact maturity
– Cash and futures converge– Arbitrage of delivery
Basis is more predictable than price Basis generally follows a pattern
– Seasonal patterns
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Live Cattle Basis 1997-2001
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Jan 1
-15
Feb 1
-15
Mar
1-1
5
Apr 1-1
5
May
1-1
5
Jun 1
-15
Jul 1
-15
Aug 1-1
5
Sep 1
-15
Oct 1
-15
Nov 1-
15
Dec 1
-15
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Position Diagram Graph of expected payoff at alternative
futures prices at contract expiration
1. Futures prices on horizontal axis
2. Expected net price on vertical axisAdjust for basis and commission if needed
3. Start with current futures price
4. Identify one other futures priceFutures, cash, and hedge are linear
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Futures
Net Price
Current
Long Cash
Adjust for basis
Long Futures = 45oShort Futures = 45o
HedgeAdjust for basis