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Gone up…now 77.6
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The Demography of Aging
Lecture 3 – Chapter 3
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Demographics?
Study of the size, distribution, and composition of
a population
284.5 million in US…
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65 years & Older?
35 million…12.4%New England + Maine + New Hampshire + Vermont + Rhode Island + Connecticut
+ Montana + Idaho + Wyoming + Colorado + New Mexico + Arizona + Utah + Nevada
12.4% now2020 16.52040 20.52060 20.8
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The Demographics of LifeThe Demographics of Life
USASource
www.populationconnection.org/Communications/demfacts.PDF
World
300 million Population, Jan 2007 6.5 billion
77 Population per square mile 118
15 Births per 1,000 people 22
9 Deaths per 1,000 people 9
2.1 Total fertility rate 2.8
21 % of pop under age 15 30
13 % of pop over age 65 7
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Us: 32nd: 12.4
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Median Ageis also increasing
50%Above
50% Below
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Demographic transitions
No surprise increase in older adults
Theory of Population Change: fertility & mortality will decline from high to lowlevels because economics & social development
Stage IHi BRHi DR
*Preindustrial
Stage IIHi BR
low DR
Stage IIIlow BRlow DR
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Population Pyramid:• bar graph• age categories (5 yr)• male & female• length = percentages
3 types:
Expansive: “Broad Base”
More younger peeps
Constrictive: fewer in younger peeps
Stationary: = # peeps in all cats
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Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 1950Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 1950
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Male Female
Millions
Male Female
8.1%
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15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2000Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2000
Millions
Male Female = Year 1950
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15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2050Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2050
Male Female
Millions
= Year 2000
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Baby
Boomers
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What’s causing so many older people since 1900s?
CohortBaby Boomers
(fertility)Declining infant &
adult mortality
Increases in lifeexpectancy
Lowering of Fertility
“baby bust”(late 1960s-70s)
2045-2050Slower to marryFewer children
Mortality rates: tot # of deathsin a year per 1,000 individuals
Fertility rates: tot # of birthsin a year per 1,000 individuals
Age composition: proportion of young & old in a society
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Fertility Rates USAFertility Rates USA
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2.33
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The human life cycle divisions are arbitrary differing from society to society and changing from one time in history to another
The five stages of adulthood
early adulthood (18-30),
middle adulthood (30-50)
Later adulthood (50-65)
young-old age (65-80)
old-old age (> 80)
Octogenarian: Someone in their eighties. Nonagenarian: Someone in their nineties.
Centenarian: Someone 100 or more. Supercentenarian: Someone 110 years old
or more (no upper limit)
Riley (1986) "young-old" (ages 65 to 74)"old-old" (ages 75 to 85)"oldest-old" (over age 85)
important
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1. SEX COMPOSITION:
Sex Ratio: the # of males for every 100 females
1900: 102
1930: 100.4
1980: 94.5
1990: 95.1
2000:96.1
2025: 96.0
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12.4% (2000)
59% female41% male
6 million more women!!!!
At birth 105 boys to 100 girls
35 years of ageFemale begin to surpass Males
Centenarians & super
1. SEX COMPOSITION
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Where to go to get a date…
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Race Ethnicity Composition of US
2003: Minorities represent about 18% of 65+ 2050: Projected 40% of 65+
2. ETHNICITY
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Inequities among the racesBlacks have lower life expectancy
as compared to whites
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Inequities among the races
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- 5.4
- 6.3
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Where do older adults live?
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Where do older adults live?
Where do older adults not live?
CA 3.6 million (11%)
Florida 2.7 (18%)
New York 2.4 (13%)
Texas 2.0 (9%)
Alaska 5.5 %
1. LOCATION
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Old-age dependency ratio:
65+ (too old to work)_____________
18-64 (working)
1930: 1:11
1980: 1:5.4
2000: 1:5
2030: 1:3
Familial old-age dependency ratio:
65 to 84 (elderly parents)___________________
45 to 54 (elderly children)
1980: 1.02:1
2000: .8:1
2030: 1.6:1