-
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I.
II. II.1
II.2 ,
III. III.1 III.1.1 , III.1.2 ,
III.2 , III.2.1 III.2.2
III.2.3 ,
III.3 III.3.1 III.3.2 ,
III.4 , III.4.1 , III.4.2
III.4.3
III.4.4
:
III.5 III.5.1 III.5.2 ,
III.5.3
III.6 III.6.1 III.6.2
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II.1.1
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1 , Roubini Global Economics- 2015 5
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4
5
6
7
8
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10
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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II.1.3
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II III IV I
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III.1.1 ,
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III.1.2 ,
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III.1.2.4
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III.2
III.2.1
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III.2.1.3
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III.2.3.1
III.2.3.2
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18
III.3
III.3.1
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III.3.1.1
:
III.3.2.1
-
19
III.3.2 ,
2015 1 1.4%-13 851400 . , 27.8%, 20.7%, 26.1%, 22.3%- 4.3%, 8.3%, 5.2%, 5.5%, 2.1%- . ( III.3.2.1- ) 2010 .
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III.4.2
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III.4.2.2
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III.4.2.3
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III.4.3
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27
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-
28
III.5
2015 1 92%- 43.4 . 133%- 126.7 . 271.1 . . , -101.0 . .
III.5.1
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III.5.1.1
III.5.1.2
III.5.1.3
-
29
2015 1 , 35%- 202.2 . 202.6 . . 48.0 ., 137.7 . .
, , , , , , 52%- 78.7 . 40%- , 239.8 . . 71%- , 12.8 . .
III.5.2 ,
2015 1 18.4 . 23%- .
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III.5.1.4
III.5.1.5
III.5.2.1
2015 1- -
-
30
140%- , -111.3 . , ( III.5.2.2).
2015 1 , 8.5 . ( III.5.2.3).
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III.5.2.2
2015 1- -111.3 .
III.5.2.3
2015 1- 8.5 .
III.5.2.4
2015 1- 326.0 .
-
31
III.5.3
2015 1 17%- . 25%-, 9%- .
19%-, 15%-, 53%-, 48%- .
40%-, , , , 22%- .
III.5.3.1
-
32
III.6
2015 , , - . , . , . , , - . - , , .
. , OPEC- , - , - .
III.6.1
-
2014 7.5%, 2015 7% . 2014 7.3%-, 2015 7%- . - , . , , , . : 2014 1 16.8%, 17.6%- 2015 1 8.5%, 13.6% . , .
2014 - , 2014 11 2015
III.6.1.1
- , / /
7.47.5
7.3 7.3
7.0
6.5
7
7.5
8
2013 II III IV 2014 II III IV 2015
-
33
3 2 0.65 , - 0.5 . 2015 1.4%- , 4.6%- , - , , 7%- 2015 4 - 1 , 5 0.25 . 150%- 0.37 .
-
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III.6.1.2
- .
1.0 1.0
0.6
0.1
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0
1
2
2013 II III IV 2014 II III IV 2015
-
34
. - , .
-
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2015 4 5.4%- , , , 2009 2015 2 .
2014 0.9%- 2015 1%- . 1.1 Quantitative Easing /QE/ , , , . 2015 , - 3%- , - 1.5%- , . , - 0.5%-
III.6.1.3
- 2015 I ...
III.6.1.4
.
25
2015 1, 2 4.3%, 3.9%- .
1.6
2.1
1.7
0.7
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0.5
1.5
2.5
2013 II III IV 2014 II III IV 2015
1.1
0.8 0.80.9
1.0
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0.5
1.5
2013 II III IV 2014 II III IV 2015
-
35
, , 0.5%- 0.25% . , 2015 3 60 QE 2016 9 1.1 . , . 3 -0.1%- 4 0%- , 2013 2 .
, 0.6%, 0.3%- 0.3%- 0.1 . , . 4.7%- . 3 11.3% .
-
36
III.6.2
: . 2014 12 6446$/ 2015 2 2 5729$- 3, 4 6042$-, 4 6364$- . 2 3 - .
: 2014 1190$ , quantitative easing 1 1300$- . , - . 4 1198$- .
: EIU- 2004-13 4%- 2014 0.9%- 1999 . 2015 1 26 4 39%- . 2014 66.1$/ 2015 4 58$/- .
: , 2014 57 , 16 2015 1 37 , 11 . 2015 1 117$/ 2 109.5$/- , - 26 10-40 .
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26
- 2013 500 70 .
-
37